Placing a Boxed Trifecta Bet in Horse or Dog Racing

My Preakness Analysis

The Preakness should be a pretty good race to bet this year mostly because most have marks against them and the race looks wide open. This is the type of race I enjoy betting the most because there is always value if you can figure out who will move forward and who will regress or is simply outclassed. So my thoughts are below for those who likes an opinion of what might happen. Or maybe not, but I will at least take a small chance based on the way I see it.

  1. War Of Will(4-1)---- I ended up betting him to WP in the Ky Derby when I saw the track was going to be sloppy. However, when he was going down the stretch the first time, it look to me like he was bothered by the kickback of the off track and took a while to get used to it. While he lost a couple of lengths when he got tangled up with MS and a couple of others, he was able to make most of it back up when MS swerved back towards the rail and bumped with COH turning for home. His jockey sensing he still was in the thick of it, used him pretty hard in the stretch and faded late. Since he has no works since that start that I can use as a measuring stick to how he came out of that start, I will try to beat him and will look at others to include in my exotics.

2) Bourbon War(12-1)---- Last seen running 4th in the Fla Derby where he had little chance of catching the pace setters through slow fraction for a G1 race. So that race is a toss for me. However, in the FOY, he was allowed to wait until the pace setters burned each other out and he was along in time to pick up the pieces. In the Preakness, he will be facing better horses than he faced that day, so I believe he will not benefit from tiring front runners in this race as much as he did in that race. And with the addition of blinkers, it helps some horses but is also a detriment to other horses by making them to keen to go to early. So while he definitely has a chance to win, I will be looking elsewhere.

3) Warrior's Charge(12-1)---- After opening his career with 3 thirds in three maiden special weights against several good sprinters, he has won his last two going away after being stretch out and being put on the lead, both in good times. Supplemented to this race for $150,000, he sports the same trainer as Monomoy Girl, who beat the best 3 YO fillies racing had to offer last year, using similar tactics. Warrior's Charge's sire Munnings, is a look alike replica of Secretariat, including the built, three white socks and the blazed face. However, he was bred with too much speed influence to resemble Secretariat on the track, though he is inbred to him. However, his broodmare sire, Broken Vow, is a son of Unbridled out of a daughter of Nijinsky II, so that should give him enough stamina to be a major factor, especially since starting with Warrior's Charge's 4th dam, you see, Roberto, Tom Fool, Princequillo, War Admiral and the best bloodlines racing had to offer in dams for generations on back. So, he will be included in my exotics. A definite in my trifecta and super boxes.

4) Improbable(5-2)----The morning line favorite for this race and off as the favorite in the Ky Derby, he really had no shot to win the derby as he was behind a wall of horses for most of that running with no room to get through until he was left with too much to do. With such a good jockey on him, you should have expected a much better ride than he actually got. Now Baffert goes to his main jockey over the last few years, gives his a horse a maintenance breeze, indicating he came out of the derby ready to get another shot at winning and he certainly would be no real surprise if he did just that. While I will definitely include him in my super box, at least, I will go for others in my exacta, trifecta and WP bets.

5) Owendale(10-1)---- Another trained by Brad Cox, his best race came in the G3 Lexington S and while it was decent, I believe he will need to step up his game to a level he has not shown yet to be a factor, so I will pass.

6) Market King(30-1)--- Another who will need by far a career best even to compete against these, so he is another pass for me.

7) Alwaysmining(8-1)---- I feel he is a wise guy type of horse and he has beaten very little except Win Win Win but that came on a good track and at a distance he should have like more than that horse. His trainer is trying for his first G1 win and he picked a tough spot to accomplished that. Even Signalman has beaten him and he simply looks like a horse for the course type and he has never won away from Laurel Park. Will make him beat me, especially at his projected odds.

8) Signalman(30-1)--- Here is one that would be a mistake to not at least consider. He has two starts this year, the first in the FOY when his trainer tried to get him ready by working him in a 46 3/5, followed by a slow work, then another good work, followed by another slow work, indicating he was not ready to fire. Then after two more good works to sharpen his speed, he ran him in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's heavy speed favoring track, changed the horse's running style to keep him close to the pace and he flatten out late to just miss 2nd. He decided early to bypass the derby because he was on the outside needing a couple of scratches and pointed him towards this race instead. Four more solid works since the BG and he is sitting on ready. And for those of you who does not know who Ken McPeek is, he has trained a Ky Derby runner up in 1995(Tejano Run), A Belmont S winner(Sarava at 70-1 denying War Emblem a TC and beating Medaglia D'Oro in 2002), and a Travers DH winner(Golden Ticket at 30-1 finished in a DH with Alpha in 2012). He was also trainer of Take Charge Lady and more recently, Daddy's Lil Darling. I hope they let him off at 30-1 because I will slam them. On all my exotics bets.

9) Bodexpress(20-1)--- While still a maiden, he had a pretty good run going in the Ky Derby before he was taken up and lost all chance. However, he is bred to love the off going and it was probably the biggest reason he was still in that race that late. He probably will not get the conditions that will flatter his style in this start, so I will pass on using him.

10) Everfast(50-1)--- Will need by far a career best and I can not phantom where he will get that from. Pass.

11) Laughing Fox(20-1)--- His only race worth noting was the Ark Derby and someone had to run 4th in that race and the top two were much the best. So he will need a major improvement, just to get close to hitting the board, so I will have to pass.

12) Anothertwistafate(6-1)---- Another who I think will be overbet for what he has accomplished and both G3 defeats came against others who would look (or does) overmatched in here. Pass, not willing to accept low odds on this one.

13) Win Win Win(15-1) --- He was the horse I liked the most heading up to the Ky Derby, but I ended up changing my mind because of the sloppy conditions, his outside post on that track and his BG run gave me some doubt he could give it his best run after such a hard race to just become eligible. I usually find it hard to bet any horse in their next start(or I often regret doing so) after he checked and then had to closed that much ground in such a short stretch. And he ended up proving either that thought was right or that he was simply not good enough. I am going with the former thought because I know how difficult it is to close on sloppy racetracks without a blazing pace, something he did not get in the derby. He will be in all my exotics tomorrow.

My Bets: $40 WP 8, $5 Ex Box 8-13, $2 Ex Box 3-8-13, $1 Tri Box 3-8-13, $3 Tri Key 8 With 3-13 with 3-13, $4 Tri Key 8-13 with 8-13 with 3, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-13, $2 Super Key 8 With 3-4-13 with 3-4-13 with 3-4-13. Total Cost $136.40. Good Luck To All!!
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Preview of the Pegasus World Cup and more

We will be solely focused on Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. as the two richest races in the country are set to be run.
The co-featured races include the $9 million Pegasus World Cup for four year olds and up, and the inaugural running of the $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, also for four year olds and up.
The entire Gulfstream card on Saturday is a blockbuster as they will run nine Stakes races all told and we will be examining six of them.
They include: The Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, which came up very competitive, the Hurricane Bertie, which will feature the 2019 debut of 2018 Female Champion Sprinter winner Shamrock Rose, the La Prevoyante Stakes, a marathon event for fillies and mares, and the Fred W Hooper, another well matched field going a mile on the dirt.
Before moving forward, as most of you know, I will do a now and again “Back-Track” segment and talk about what happened last weekend.
There was so much talent on display last weekend I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the five horses who were very impressive in their respective races.
In no particular order, Dessman, an enormous, roughly 1,250 pound, $750,000 son of Union Rags absolutely waltzed home a 7 ½ length winner in his debut. Albeit a bit green, I loved how he was moving down the lane, his stride is impeccible and he will only get better with experience. As Justify taught us last year, it’s not too late for this gorgeous bay colt to make the Derby.
Win Win Win was visually impressive coming from last, circling the field on the outside and blew the doors off his competitors in the Pasco Stakes. The son of Hat Trick won by 7 1/4 lengths. He didn’t just break the track record for seven furlongs while winning for the third time in four starts, he shattered it, getting the distance is 1:20.4 over a notoriously tiring Tampa Bay Downs surface.
Americandy was also impressive in breaking his maiden first time out at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The colt by Candy Ride missed the break and was dead last at first call. He too unleashed a powerful run around “the hook” while going a ridiculous six wide, yet powered away from his rivals in winning by two “going away” lengths.
Also at the Fair Grounds, War of Will stalked the early pace, took over at the six furlong marker and cruised to an easy four length win in the Le Comte Stakes. He exudes class and I look forward to what this hybrid grass/dirt runner will do down the road.
The highly touted, $500,000 Flor de La Mar was no secret as she went off at 1/5 in her racing debut and lived up to the hype while decimating her rivals in her racing debut. The titanic filly, who outworked Dessman in the mornings, has a big, beautiful, long, loping stride that covers a ton of ground effortlessly, seems to have a really big future.
Lastly, crack sprinter X Y Jet got caught in protracted and wicked speed duel (:21 flat and :43.2) and understandably tired badly at the eighth pole. He’ll live to fight another day.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Gulfstream Park
Race: 3 (12:30 PM EST Post)
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes
This is a really good race, one where the break will be the key. That said, and even though he was run down in deep stretch by Stormy Liberal in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November, I still think World of Trouble has a world of talent. Albeit he’s never run on a turf course labeled firm, he’s run huge in all three turf starts. The cut back in distance off his sloppy tracked, colossal margin win in his last should hit him right between the eyes here. A 23% Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the leg up from a scalding hot (12-32= 38%) Jason Servis and with no speed to his inside, he should be able to work out a good trip in this spot……………………..This race sets up very well for 2018 Champion Male Turf Horse Stormy Liberal. The now seven year old, stretch runner figures to “sit the trip” behind the plethora of speed in this spot and make his run down the lane. You can go ahead and throw out that last race on the downhill course at Santa Anita as he was too close to an insanely fast early pace (:42 half mile). The 4 for 4 record at this distance is impressive as is the bullet work (5F- :59.4) last week…a must use in any exotics betting scenarios……………………Pay Any Price is faster than a proverbial speeding bullet as he consistently rattles off sub :22 second first quarters and sub :45 second half miles. The nine year old veteran is an astounding 15 for 25 in his career including being a mind boggling 12 for 17 on this oval. A white hot Paco Lopez (5 for his last 16 through Wednesday of this week) is the perfect (speed) rider for this horse as well. He probably needed his troubled trip last as it was his first start in three months. Lastly, I did find it interesting that he has no published works since Dec. 19………………Honorable Mentions: Am I the only one who is intrigued that Recruiting Ready is making his turf debut against two of the nation’s best turf sprinters? It took me a minute but I think I see it. Note the one and only turf work he shows at Palm Meadows last week as it was tremendous; going 4F in :47.4 with dogs up. Perhaps trainer Stanley Hough, who is no babe in the woods, saw something there………………..My long-shot toss in is Oak Bluffs, who has shown next to nothing in four of his last five outings. But note he is a 16 time winner and this is clearly his favorite surface as his 10-3-5-0 record on this turf course would indicate. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using all five. Cost: $60.00)

Race: 7 (2:30 PM EST Post)
Hurricane Bertie Stakes
Shamrock Rose was super impressive when coming “over the top” to pull off a colossal upset (26-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in November. That win was her fourth straight to end 2018 and propelled her to an Eclipse Award for Champion Female Sprinter. This good looking daughter of the strapping First Dude, who is 2 for 2 at this distance, handled what appears to be her biggest threat in this race (Blamed) with ease back in October and she has been working very well for her 2019 debut.. She is no slam dunk in this spot as this track goes against the grain of her deep closer running style, but she might pick up where she left off last year …………….....………The aforementioned Blamed sports a very impressive 8-6-2-0 career mark. Filly by Blame wired the field in the Nov 23rd Comely Stakes in her swan song race of 2018. Although this will be her first start since, she has run well off of long breaks several times before…..looks next best………………………….The regally bred Dream Pauline is three for four in her career with all three wins coming on three different surfaces, so you have to like her adaptability. This filly by Tapit out of Grade: 1 Test Stakes winner Dream Rush will be stretching out to seven panels for the first time and stepping up in class as well, but she is another who is training well and you get the third start off the layoff angle…………………Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Stormy Embrace’s Breeders’ Cup debacle, you’ll see this five year old mare had a very strong 2018 (7-4-1-2). She has hit the board in 7 of 9 tries at this distance and 7 of 9 on the oval. That, readers, is consistency…..could conceivably better this rating……………………I had a difficult time separating Ms Meshak and Pacific Gale for the fifth slot in my “go to” five horse, trifecta box. I’m going to go with Ms Meshak based on the fact that she is batting .500 on this track and appears to be coming into this in good form while winning back to back races vs. lesser. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 8 (3:00 PM EST Post)
La Prevoyante Stakes
Si Que Es Buena is an Argentinian import who rallied strongly from twelfth position early to finish fourth, beaten by just one length, in her U.S. debut in New York. She came back and overcame a mistimed move by her rider to gamely win a minor Stakes race on this turf course last time out. Although she didn’t break any track records and her speed figures were average at best, she still looks best in this wide open affair………………….Tricky Escape had a three race win streak snapped when probably overmatched in the Grade: 1 Flower Bowl back in October. She bounced back nicely off of that effort when finishing a close second in the Grade: 3 Long Island Stakes while finishing ahead of my top pick at the same time. The Grade: 3 level looks like her comfort zone, so she should be competitive here……………………………. Santa Monica disappointed while showing zilch in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last time out. But this good looking, now six year old mare, had run bang up in all five previous U.S. starts and it would be no surprise if she bounces back and runs big here………………..Honorable Mentions: English Affair finished off 2018 strongly with a close up, third place finish at Keeneland, then overcame a slow pace to take the Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs. Threat if she picks up where she left off………………………..Although Holy Helena has never tried this distance before, she was a fast closing second behind my top pick at 1 3/16ths miles late time out. Filly by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper is 3 for 7 on the turf and has serious “back class” while winning the Queens Plate (Canadian Kentucky Derby) in 2017. (My play: .50 trifecta box, all 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 9 (3:30 PM EST Post)
Fred W. Hooper Stakes
Coal Front not only bounced back to his winning ways while blasting his rivals in the Grade: 3 “Mr. P” Stakes last time out, but did so by showing a new dimension. This speedy, $575,000 son of Stay Thirsty assumed a stalking position that day, took the lead on “the hook” and scampered away late to win by almost four lengths. I’m not worried he’ll be going a mile in this spot as a) he showed no signs of not being able to handle an extra furlong in the Mr. P and b) this is still a one turn race for this ridgling who is 5 for 7 in his career. It’ll be interesting to see the plan of attack here as we know he has excellent early speed and draws the rail, yet was successful using rating tactics last time out…………………Unbridled Juan won three of his last four in Maryland to close out 2018. Although this will be his first start in some 2 ½ months he does run well fresh and he likes this track as his 4-2-1-1 record over it would indicate………………………After winning 3 of 11 starts and $68,000 in 2017, Aztec Sense came back and had a “perfect” 2018 while winning all eight starts and over $400,000. His speed figures are on par or better than most of these and he mirrors Unbridled Juan in the sense he likes this track (3 for 4 over it) and he runs well fresh……..scary………………Honorable Mentions: Copper Town’s last race was too bad to be true. This good looking son of wide spectrum sire Speightstown blew through maidens and two allowance levels but completely mailed it in last time out in the Cigar Mile. He’s had 56 days off to “regroup” and it won’t surprise me at all if he outruns this rating…………………………My long-shot throw in is Fellowship, who has shown very little in his last several races while going just 1 for 10 in 2018. But he is back on his home track, where he has made over $500,000, and he is going to pop a big race one of these days. (My Play: .50 trifecta using all 5. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 11 (4:30 PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes
Yoshida looks the one to beat here as this now five year old is a Grade: 1 winner on the dirt (Woodward Stakes) and on the turf (Churchill Turf Classic)….that’s impressive. Also impressive was his Breeders’ Cup Classic effort. This Bill Mott trainee bobbled at the break and soon found himself near the back of the pack and some 14-15 lengths out of it. He then launched a brazen, six wide run on “the hook” and, although understandably hanging like a cheap suit in deep stretch, he was only beaten by less than two lengths behind Horse of the Year candidate Accelerate. He has worked well since over the notoriously deep track at Payson Park and this distance should be no problem at all. Slight edge in wide open horse race that features three females and several Grade: 1 winners…………………….In taking Yoshida, Catapult scares me. This $350,000 son of Kitten’s Joy had a very good, albeit brief, 2018 highlighted by just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile last time out. He won back to back Grade: 2’s prior to that in California and finished both races in very quick final times. I’m not worried this will be his first start since the BC since a) I love his work pattern as he shows three stamina building, six furlong works topped off by solid five furlong works and b) he is still another who seems to run well fresh…..dangerous foe………………….Although Bricks and Mortar will be taking a major league class hike here and stretching out in distance, he is about 1 ½ lengths away from unbeaten in seven starts. This stretch runner by the late super sire Giant’s Causeway finished just inches behind Yoshida the two times they’ve squared off and he shows a monster work (5F- :59.2) at Palm Meadows last week……………………………….Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Next Share’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile debacle, you’ll see he’s won three straight including pulling off a major upset in the Grade: 1 Shadwell Turf Mile three starts back. In his current form, he could better this rating………………….A similar thing can be said for Channel Maker, who also showed little in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile but ran bang up in his three previous races, including winning a Grade: 1. ……………………..Delta Prince, who is a half brother to multiple Eclipse Champion, the late Royal Delta, returns to his preferred surface (turf) and has hit the board in 10 of 11 career tries, Aerolithe, a gray mare from Japan who sports a 13-4-5-0 record and gets the “dark horse” label in here and Magic Wand, a four year old filly who set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and held well in deep stretch, all merit consideration…but you can’t play them all. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 12 (5:00PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes
2018 Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year runner up Accelerate really needs no introduction as his 2018 season was remarkable. The now six year old son of two time champion Lookin’ at Lucky won six of seven starts including an eye popping five Grade: 1’s highlighted by the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Trainer John Sadler looks to have this chestnut “revved up” for swan song race as he shows three straight bullet works capped off by a visually impressive 5F in :58.4 this past week. …………………………Aside from possibly Enable and Newspaperofrecord, City of Light’s tour de force win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile might have been THE most impressive win I saw throughout the entire Breeders’ Cup weekend. This gorgeous son of Quality Road broke running that day and never looked back. He too has run a hole in the wind in the morning since and he also should be “fully cranked up” here for his farewell race. That said, and even though he is 1 for 1 with a win over Accelerate at it, I don’t think nine furlongs is his best distance. From what I’ve seen his “wheel house” is between seven and eight and a half furlongs and that, readers, could play a part in the outcome. Past that, Castellano appears to be sitting on a keg of dynamite here……………………..I hate to put the drop dead gorgeous Audible this far down, I really do. I expect this $500,000 son of Into Mischief to be major force in the older make division in 2019 as, even though he severely disappointed at 1/5 in his last (prep) race for this, he has an enormous amount of talent. I generally don’t buy trainers excuses for losses but I am completely selling out on what trainer Todd Pletcher said about how “he didn’t handle the sealed/wet track.” Head hunters in New Guinea and lost tribes in the Amazon could see this colt struggling with the surface in that race especially leaving the three eighths pole and around “the hook”. Bottom line here is he is an exotics inclusion for me for sure…………………….Honorable Mentions: Gunnevera was jostled at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic but was coming hard, late and was just one length behind Accelerate in a super good effort. This big chestnut by Dialed In was charging hard, late behind Yoshida in the Woodward prior to that, so he is certainly in good form and clearly has ability. I like his work pattern coming into this also as he shows a steady line of stamina building works, signaling to me he might run big once again in this spot…………………..Patternrecognition comes into this razor sharp off three consecutive “coast to coast” scores in his last three, highlighted by taking down the Grade: 1 Cigar Mile in his last. They better not let him cruise on an easy lead or he may prove difficult to catch late…………………Just a few other notes about this race: I wonder which Bravazo will show up on Saturday? The one that got beat narrowly by Justify in the Preakness, you know, the same one who got beat by a neck in the Clark Handicap last time out or the one who lays an egg like in the Pennsylvania Derby back in September? Either way, as tough as he is, as he was the only horse other than Justify to run in all three Triple Crown races, that 2 for 11 record in 2018 just doesn’t do it for me………………………..Tom’s d’Etat has won 6 of 9 starts, including his last four in a row by a combined 22 lengths, vs. far, far lesser and his speed figures aren’t all that bad…………………..Mexican Triple Crown winner Kukulan, who is 14 for 14 in his career and no one has ever been close to beating him, should be fun to watch. His prep race was visually impressive to watch but his final time (1:54.4 for this nine furlong distance) and his speed figure that day (70), will get him blown away in this race. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 4-11 = 36% (My Plays: -$258.05)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Four-time Eclipse Award champion Beholder delivered a bay filly by Curlin Jan. 19th at Spendthrift Farm in Lexington.
"Beholder had a very nice Curlin filly this afternoon, and we're happy to report both mother and foal are doing really well," said Ned Toffey, general manager at Spendthrift. "We couldn't be prouder of Beholder. She is such a professional and continues to perform beautifully in her second career as a broodmare. We've been very fortunate. The delivery was as normal and straightforward as you could ask for.
The filly was born at 4:25 p.m. and "jumped right up" according to Toffey. She is the second foal for Beholder, who had an Uncle Mo colt (named Q B One) last year.
Mating plans for Beholder in 2019 have yet to be announced.

**** 2018 Two Year old Male Champion Game Winner had his second work of 2019 last Sunday at Santa Anita Park, breezing a half-mile in :48.3 for trainer Bob Baffert. The 3 year old son of Candy Ride is being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes on March 9th as his first start of the season.
“He'll get ready pretty quick,” Baffert said.
Other notables on the work tab last Sunday:
Coliseum, trained by Baffert and most recently finished sixth in the Sham after a bad start, breezed five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.4.
Improbable, also trained by Baffert, worked a half in :48 flat.
Instagrand, winner of the Best Pal Stakes in August, breezed a half-mile in 47.3.
Sham Stakes winner Gunmetal Gray breezed five furlongs in 1:02.4.

**** …………Annnnnnnnnd finally in the occasional “This has nothing to do with Horse Racing” section.
UPS driver Ryan Arens was on his route shortly before Christmas when he pulled up to a house in Bozeman, Montana, and heard a dog in distress by a pond beyond the house where he was delivering.
"This dog was screaming and crying and going crazy," Arens said.
With the sun was nearly set, Arens couldn’t see anything. He delivered a package and then drove to the other side of the pond.
"I could see the dog trapped about 10-15 feet off of shore, with ice all around it," he said.
An older man was in a rowboat on the pond, trying with little success to chip away the ice to reach the dog.
"I stripped to my boxers and got the guy out of the boat. Then, I slid the boat out onto the ice, using it to distribute my weight," Arens said. "I shimmed out to where the ice was thin."
The ice gave way and Arens fell out of the boat and into the 16-feet-deep water. Since he was already wet and, with the "dog starting to go under," Arens started swimming quickly towards the dog.
He grabbed her collar and swam for the ice, sliding the dog across the ice to shore. He pulled himself out of the water and a bystander handed him a blanket.
"We took the dog inside the older guy's house and got in the shower together to warm up," he said.
About then, the sheriff's department and animal control arrived. Help was on the way, but "I knew someone had to get to her. She wasn't going to make it."
Despite his adventure and cuts on his leg, Arens finished his route, delivering 20 more packages.
"It was the highlight of my 14-year UPS career." Arebs said afterwards.
Arens found out where the dog's owner lived and happened to have a package to deliver to him. As he walked up, he saw the dog, whose name he learned is Sadie, in the guy's pickup.
"She was freaking out, and when he let her out she ran to me," he said. "She must have remembered me. It sure made me feel good."


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Preview of the Bayakoa, Razorback and Southwest Stakes'

We have bonus coverage for President’s Day, Monday. We will be looking at three more races with all three being at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
We will lead off with the Bayakoa Stakes (race: 7) for four year olds and up fillies and mares, then move to the Razorback Handicap (race: 8) for four year old and up, and end with the Southwest Stakes (race: 9) for three year olds.
Although I won’t be breaking down the race, keep an eye on Galilean in the California Cup Derby (Race: 4) at Santa Anita on Monday as well.
The $600,000 son of Uncle Mo is, at this point, a blip on my Kentucky Derby radar screen after showing big time talent in his first three races and is just a neck shy of being unbeaten.
Yes, thus far the competition he’s faced in all three starts is questionable but note he showed serious speed/fractional times in his first two (sprint) starts, yet also won by a wide margin (9 lengths) when stretched out to a mile last time out, stopping the clock in a solid 1:35 flat.
The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee is working very well for his 2019 debut including a stamina building, six furlong work (1:12.4) two weeks ago and then zipped a half mile in :47 flat last week.
Oaklawn Park
Race: 7 (4:09PM EST Post)
Bayakoa Stakes
She’s a Julie had a very good second half of last year including winning three of five and finishing second in the prestigious Alabama Stakes at Saratoga. Filly Elusive Quality will be making her first start of 2019, and in about three months here, but looks best in a very weakly drawn race…………………..Moonlit Garden looks to be sitting on a good effort in this spot. Mare by Malibu Moon ran very well in her last two including just missing at 20-1 in the Houston Ladies Classic at Sam Houston last time out. Her speed figures are on the rise which bodes well with the third start off the layoff angle………………..Remedy might have needed her last when finishing behind Moonlit Garden in the Houston Ladies Classic last time out. Chestnut filly has been either first or second in six of nine career starts and should be “tighter” for this………………………Honorable Mentions: Rose of Malibu is ultra consistent as her 11 on the board finishes in 13 career starts would indicate. She closed well late in her initial try over this track vs. lesser but that race should set her up well for this…………………..Sydney Freeman is another who has very good second half of 2018 (5-2-2-1). However, the 0 for 4 record on this oval is a bit of a concern. (My Play: .50 triple box using all. Cost $30.00)
Race: 8 (4:38 PM EST Post)
Razorback Handicap
M G Warrior is 8-4-3-0 in his career and will be taking a major class hike in this spot. Good looking son of Majestic Warrior has used a strong stretch run to win four of his last five, he draws well for his running style and he has the oh-so-important race/win/prep over the track. Springs a minor upset here……………….Coal Front is clearly the best horse in this race but I’m to try to beat him here as he has not one, but two “play against” angles. This $575,000 son on Stay Thirsty goes against Horse Racing Betting 101 in “Never bet a horse who is trying something for the first time” (in this case the route distance) and he’ll have to do it for the extreme (#14) outside post. Yes, he added a new weapon to his arsenal while learning how to rate off the pace as he did in his last when he came waltzing home almost four in front on the wire. But still, I’m going to take a stand against him……………………Souper Tapit is in career form right now after back to back wins at Gulfstream. This very well bred now, five year old is consistent and should be able to secure a good stalking trip early. Bottom line here is he figures among the vanguard at the end……………………………Honorable Mentions: Copper Bullet’s last was too bad to be true. Albeit he too will be trying a route of ground for the first time, he does have excellent speed and he draws the rail in this spot. He should come out running and figures prominent throughout…………………………If you are hunting a long-shot in here, take a look at Tiz He the One, who is razor sharp right now after rattling off three straight wins at Laurel. Trainer ‘Miah, who wins at a 29% clip when shipping, might “be here for a reason, not the season”……………….The cleverly named Nun the Less will be making his first dirt start since Nov 22 but he did win three of his last four to close out 2018 plus his speed figures say he’s not completely out of this. (My Play: .50 trifecta using the top 5. Cost $30.00)
Race: 9 (5:09 PM EST Post)
Southwest Stakes
Long Range Toddy has won three straight, along with two Stakes races including the Springboard Mile on Dec 16. This son of Take Charge Indy just missed catching Gray Attempt last time out to break his win streak but the extra half of a furlong these two have to go this time could make the difference. Slight edge in a race where nine of the 11 entered have a chance to win……………….Gray Attempt has speed and the rail and is another who has won three straight including a pair of Stakes races. Good looking colt by Graydar was “all out” to fend off the top pick last time out and the extra distance worries me about him in this spot. That said, his last work (5F- 1:00.1 in the mud) was eye catching good………………….After winning two in a row, Sueno poked his head in front (at 18-1) in mid-stretch of the Sham Stakes last time out where he was probably facing better than what he is facing come Monday. Third start off the layoff angle with this obscurely bred colt also……………………….Honorable Mentions: Boldor was “outkicked late” by the Long Range Toddy and Gray Attempt in his last while finishing just a half length behind them. But you MUST note, that was his first start in 61 days…obvious threat here with normal improvement from race #1 off a layoff to race #2…………………Bankit was flying late and just missed behind Long Range Toddy two back in the Springboard Mile. Very handsome colt by Central Banker then disappointed as the 3/2 favorite in his last vs. several of these. This colt does have ability and I expect a bounce back effort here…………………….Couple of other notes about this race: Six Shooter was less than two lengths behind the top two (and Boldor) at 24-1 last time out, Ninth Street, who finished right behind Six Shooter two starts back and Olympic Runner, who was impressive wiring maiden in the slop last time out, all pose long-shot threats.
By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable
[email protected]
2019- Record: 12-32 = 38% (My Plays: -$346.46)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
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Penumbra Special weapons breakdown

Fusion Rifles

The Epicurean - Energy / Menagerie
Curated Roll:
Hammer Forged Rifling / Accelerated Coils / Tap the Trigger / Backup Plan
Recommended PvE Perks:
Recommended PvP Perks:
A fusion rifle I'm interested in. It won't replace my Erentil or Wizened Rebuke, but for PvE it could certainly be a workhorse. I really like handling on my weapons, so Fluted Barrel is something I naturally gravitate towards. Having to deal with a charge time on fusions the quicker the weapon is readied the faster I can get that shot off. In PvE Liquid Coils will be a great option now that fusions got a sizable buff. Feeding Frenzy is also a new perk to have on a fusion and will make tearing through mobs just that much easier. Finally something like Demolitionist or Swashbuckler depending on your build could either mean some crazy damage or more grenades. Either is a great option in any PvE activity.
In PvP precision frames are usable but over-shadowed by their higher impact brethren. I'll keep this one short. Range. You want Range. As much range as you can manage. Tap the Trigger is a fantastic perk for keeping consistent bursts at range, and Under Pressure is always active when you respawn also giving some added consistency. Rangefinder, Backup Plan, Demolitionist, and Swashbuckler each have their own play styles and I'll let you decide which is best for you, but those are the top picks.

Shotguns

Imperial Decree - Kinetic / Menagerie
Curated Roll:
Barrel Shroud / Accurized Rounds / Grave Robber / Trench Barrel
Recommended PvE Perks:
Recommended PvP Perks:
A high impact shotgun with Trench Barrel? The first of its kind and hopefully not the last. The curated roll is eerily similar to Threat Level, but being that they are different frames they behave differently. I'm excited to give this a try and see how it handles. For random rolls a nice combination of range, magazine, and stability would be the best bet. Tactical Mag gives the best stat bonuses but Extended Mag gives the biggest magazine increase at the cost of reload speed. That can be mitigated by Feeding Frenzy or Grave Robber. Another option is doubling down into RPM with Assault Mag and Full Auto Trigger System. For the final perk all of the damage increasing perks are listed because they're all incredible.
In PvP range is the name of the game. Full Choke is still a great option, as is Rifled Barrel. Accurized is the only choice to stay competitive. In the final two perks you have a couple different ways to go Feeding Frenzy is great after a kill, while Slideshot is good without one. Swashbuckler will be the easiest to get a full stack of, but it's also the easiest to trade with in PvP. Rampage with the range trifecta will be the safest call. And Snapshot Sights will ensure that Full Choke is fully active when you go to pull the trigger.
Emperor's Courtesy - Energy / Crown of Sorrow
  • Rate of Fire: 80
  • Impact: 65
  • Range: 53
  • Stability: 47
  • Handling: 72
  • Reload Speed: 64
  • Mag size: 6
  • Aim Assist: 85
  • Recoil Direction: 60
Curated Roll:
Rifled Barrel / Accurized Rounds / Grave Robber / One-Two Punch
Recommended PvE Perks:
  • Sights: Smallbore, Rifled Barrel, Corkscrew Rifling
  • Magazine: Tactical Mag, Appended Mag, Assault Mag, Extended Mag
  • Perk 1: Grave Robber, Quickdraw
  • Perk 2: Swashbuckler, Rampage, Surrounded
Recommended PvP Perks:
  • Sights: Full Choke, Rifled Barrel
  • Magazine: Accurized Rounds
  • Perk 1: Quickdraw, Snapshot Sights
  • Perk 2: Opening Shot, Swashbuckler, Slideshot, Rampage, Surrounded
A new energy lightweight shotgun. The curated roll is arguably one of the best rolls you can get on it. Great for PvP and equally great for PvE. Another perk combo is the same Grave Robber with Swashbuckler for instant magazine fills and an instant 5 stack of Swashbuckler. Both Rampage and Surrounded are great options but have their drawbacks as well.
In PvP the same trifecta that all shotguns need. Full Choke or Rifled Barrel, Accurized and a Range masterwork. The lighweight frame will make up for the slightly lower one-hit kill distance. Depending on your barrel perk the first perk node will change. Quickdraw for Rifled Barrel and Snapshot for Full Choke. In the final perk node Opening Shot is going to be my top choice and the perk I'll be looking for. Slideshot and Swashbuckler are also both good options so there's a few perks you can be proud of.
Gunnora's Axe - Energy / Iron Banner
  • Rate of Fire: 65
  • Impact: 70
  • Range: 70
  • Stability: 54
  • Handling: 68
  • Reload Speed: 53
  • Mag size: 6
  • Aim Assist: 34
  • Recoil Direction: 51
Curated Roll:
Fluted Barrel - Rifled Barrel - Barrel Shroud / Accurized Rounds - Assault Mag / Outlaw / Opening Shot
Recommended PvE Perks:
  • Sights: Fluted Barrel, Corkscrew Rifling, Arrowhead Brake
  • Magazine: Tactical Mag, Assault Mag, Appended Mag
  • Perk 1: Outlaw, Quickdraw, Full Auto Trigger System
  • Perk 2: Swashbuckler, Demolitionist, Triple Tap, Rampage
Recommended PvP Perks:
  • Sights: Fluted Barrel, Hammer-Forged Rifling, Smallbore, Full Bore
  • Magazine: Accurized Rounds, Assault Mag, Light Mag
  • Perk 1: Quickdraw, Outlaw
  • Perk 2: Opening Shot, Swashbuckler, Demolitionist, Slideshot, Rampage, Moving Target, Snapshot Sights
The Gunnora's Axe was and still is my favorite year 1 weapon. So to say I'm happy it's getting the year 2 treatment is an understatement. I wouldn't recommend slug shotguns in PvE but you can make sure it's definitely dead with Swashbuckler. Triple Tap is also an interesting choice due to the nature of slug shotguns, but it's definitely a high-risk medium-reward.
In PvP is where this gun can flex its muscles. The Good Bone Structure has a base range of 59. Gunnora's Axe already blows that out of the water. So for me, the curated and year 1 version is hard to beat. Quickdraw or Outlaw are both amazing perks. Finally in the last column, really anything can work for Gunnora's, so be prepared to rip this from my cold, dead hands.

Sniper Rifles

Beloved - Energy / Menagerie
  • Rate of Fire: 90
  • Impact: 70
  • Range: 55
  • Stability: 51
  • Handling: 52
  • Reload Speed: 44
  • Mag size: 4
  • Aim Assist: 68
  • Recoil Direction: 77
  • Zoom: 40
Curated Roll:
Chambered Compensator / Accurized Rounds / No Distractions / Box Breathing
Recommended PvE Perks:
  • Sights: Fluted Barrel, Corkscrew Rifling, Polygonal Rifling
  • Magazine: Tactical Mag, Appended Mag, Extended Mag
  • Perk 1: Demolitionist, No Distractions, Mulligan
  • Perk 2: Fourth Times the Charm, Box Breathing, Rampage
Recommended PvP Perks:
  • Sights: Fluted Barrel, Hammer-Forged Rifling, Smallbore
  • Magazine: Tactical Mag, Accurized Rounds, Flared Magwell
  • Perk 1: Snapshot Sights, Demolitionist, No Distractions
  • Perk 2: Quickdraw, Moving Target
Shelving my nostalgia trip and hype for Gunnora's returning is the Beloved, another weapon I am HYPED for. No Distractions is an interesting perk and something I am excited to test. Being able to have both Demolitionist and Fourth Times the Charm isn't necessarily new, but Fourth Times the Charm and Rampage or Box Breathing? That's an extremely appealing roll. Firing Line is unfortunately exclusive to Sole Survivor, but hopefully the drop rates are better for Beloved than Sole Survivor.
What's also exciting is the exclusive combo of Quickdraw AND Snapshot Sights, no more having to choose a sniper with one or the other. Being discouraged because the sniper doesn't have the perk you want. Now you can have one, the other, OR BOTH. You can also go for Quickdraw and No Distractions to be able to quickly scope in and have reduced flinch, the largest complaint from snipers everywhere. I will definitely be grinding Menagerie for this weapon.
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Sports betting: Guy in Reno loses out on $565K in Kentucky Derby bets because he didn’t know the rules

A Nevada man could have won $600,000 on the Kentucky Derby, but it turns out his tickets were worth only $35,000.

It is a dispute that is now in the hands of the Almighty, aka the Nevada state gaming commission.

Horse player Steve Friedlander told the Action Network’s Darren Rovell that he went to the William Hill sports book at the Tamarack Junction Casino in Reno before the May 4 Derby and played, among others, a $40 trifecta box and a $100 exacta box. He bet more than $2,700 on the race.

When Maximum Security was disqualified and Country House (at 65-1) declared the winner, with Code of Honor (14-1) second and Tacitus (6-1) third, Friedlander thought he was looking at 600 large.

His trifecta would have paid $459,024, and his exacta was worth $150,480.

But hold your horses.

Friedlander placed his bets at a non-pari-mutuel shop that sets a cap of 150-1 for exactas and 500-1 on trifectas. It’s legal, and William Hill-US says there is signage making customers aware of this policy.

“Because of the requirements of the gaming regulations, there are significant costs involved to offer pari-mutuel wagering in Nevada," the William Hill company said in a statement. "Unfortunately, it doesn’t make economic sense to offer pari-mutuel wagering at all of our 115 Nevada locations.”

Such parlors do not exist in Pennsylvania, New Jersey or Delaware, at least not legally. (Exotic sports bets, such as 10-team parlays, could be subject to caps on maximum payouts. Always check with the 'book.)

The Borgata is the only casino in Atlantic City that takes action on horses, including Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. Most of the casinos in Pennsylvania are either linked with a horse track, (i.e. the three Parx locations or Harrah’s in Chester) or don’t offer horse betting. It’s too risky for the house to not be involved in the pool of money that would cover such a huge hit.

Delaware’s three casinos are connected to race tracks, as well.

The 20-13 exacta for the Derby paid $3,009.60 for every $2 bet. The 20-13-8 trifecta was worth $22,950.60 for every two bucks. At the pari-mutuels, that is.

Unfortunately for Friedlander, he is paying for convenience. A Google Map search found several pari-mutuel locations within 20 minutes of Tamarack Junction.

“The capping of booked race payouts has been industry standard for decades and allows race books to book without taking on unlimited liability, which no one would want to do,” the statement continued.

"Tamarack Junction, a small casino in Reno, is one of the locations where we have booked the Kentucky Derby for many years. We congratulate our customer at the Tamarack Junction for his winning exacta and trifecta bets.

“The customer has the right to appeal to the Nevada Gaming Control Board but we are confident that we have fully complied with the relevant gaming regulations and had prominent signage alerting customers to the payoff caps.”

https://www.philly.com/sports/sports-betting-horse-racing-kentucky-derby-exacta-trifecta-20190517.html
submitted by BTC_is_waterproof to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

My Picks For Oaklawn Park 3-16-2019

I will post my choices at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Day. I am testing a new betting strategy for races when I think low odds horses will win and/or fill most of the exotics slots in races they look the best. While I am still a strong believer in the system and/or angles I already have in place, it never hurts to pick up small change when the opportunity arises. I also am one who rarely gets complacent and always willing to adjust my thoughts if I feel it can be beneficial.

RACE 1: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 Yos-- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP will be 10) V Tach MD(15-1). He has started once in his career at Emerald Downs, where he set the pace but got caught in 5 furlongs by the second choice and finished 2nd. Emerald Downs is known for fast paces but most front runners normally gets caught in the stretch at that track. He was no different. He has since switched barns and moves to a track that will flatter his speed. His sire, Majesticperfection, ran 3rd in his first career start as a 4 YO and then reel off five straight wins, including an allowance race at OP in 108 3/5 and concluded his career by winning the G1 AG Vanderbilt S at Saratoga, also in 108 3/5. V Tach MD's broodmare sire, Proud Citizen, ran 2nd in the Ky Derby and 3rd in The Preakness S in 2002 to War Emblem and has sired two Ky Oaks winning fillies, one a close relative of this colt. I do not expect him to get 15-1 against these, mostly because those odds represents a major overlay. Drayden Van Dyke picks up the mount.

My choice for my exacta box will be 8)Alex of Ice(6-1). A first time starter, he is a son of Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness S & Belmont S in 2005 after finishing 3rd in the Ky Derby. Alex Of Ice's broodmare sire, Devil On Ice won 10 of 22 lifetime starts, mostly allowances at tracks like Belmont Park, Saratoga, GP and Monmouth Park. He was also G3 stakes placed. His trainer, Steve Hobby, knows how to prepare them to race but usually gets more serious with them after a start or two. Have to use this horse in this spot.

I will use the 6)All About Will(6-1) to complete my trifecta box. His sire, Will Take Charge, took a while before finally reaching his potential, though he showed flashes of being good throughout his career. He won the G2 Rebel S, G1 Travers S, and G2 Pennsylvania Derby before being beaten a nose while closing fast in the G1 BC Classic. All About Will has one career start and try to close on a sloppy track to finish fourth. I know most believe OP is a speed favoring track, but actually a late runner always has a shot if there is no moisture in the track or if they can get a ground saving run on the rail when moisture is present, especially if the front runners can not get the rail and/or decides to move off the rail.

I will use 3)Barefootbootlegger(30-1) in a super box and key. He, too, has one career start and he pressed the pace with another longshot and the favorite in that race at Oaklawn Park on a sloppy track before the favorite put them away and just managed to hold on for the win, beating the horse(2nd favorite) watching the duel early along the rail by a neck. While Barefootbootlegger's sire, Storm's Eye, faded in his only career start after breaking poorly and then flashing speed, he is from speed influences families on both sides of his pedigree. Also, Barefootbootlegger's 3rd dam, That's My Hon, is better known as the 2nd dam of Kitten's Joy. Worth a shot to me.

My Bets for Race 1: $10 WP 10, $5 Exacta Box 8-10, $1 Tri Box 6-8-10, .10 Super Box 3-6-8-10. .50 Super Key 10 with 3-6-8 boxed underneath. Total Cost $41.40.

Race 2: Starter Allowance $8,000--- 3 YO & Up--- 1 1/2 Miles--- Purse $47,000.

My choice to win will be 3)Kela Brew(6-1), though I will not be betting him to WP but instead take a shot at the exotics. He contested the pace in his 2nd start back before putting the other pace setters away and winning while clear. Then his last start and his 1st at OP, he tried to sit behind the early speed on a good track and tried to run past them, but the pace was much too slow for anyone to have a legit shot at running down the front runners, but he did not give up trying. The two favorites ran 1-2.
The 4)Bigshot Laceshot(8-1) beat my top choice in their last race on a good track but I believe he will have a harder time in this race to get by him. But since I know his trainer, Larry Frazee, is a decent trainer and will pop one when overlooked, I will include him in my exacta box.

5)The Rouge Diesel(20-1) will be my choice to complete my trifecta box. While he does not look like he is currently in form, he did win OP longest race last year at 1 3/4 mile in an $8000 starter allowance, the same conditions as this race. The trainer and jockey are teaming up again at OP for the first time since that win. Could surprise but I personally thinks he needs one more start before springing a surprise, but I also think he is primed for his best showing this year.

I will use the 7)Dynabeaver(12-1) in my super box. He ran 3rd against The Rouge Diesel in that 1 3/4 mile test last year, beaten 12+ lengths, but he bobbled at the start and then was too close to the pace for his normal late kick. However, his last start indicates to me he is returning to form.

My Bets for race 2: $5 Ex Box 3-4($10 Total), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6 Total), .50 Super Box 3-4-5-7($12 Total), .50 Super Key 3 with the 4-5-7 boxed underneath($3 Total). Total Bets on race $31.

RACE 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to win is 10)Royal Mesa(7-2). He has two career starts, the first in a 6 furlong sprint where he was left with too much to do against those horses and his 2nd start, at 1 1/16 mile, where he closed with a rush to finish 2nd. Two good works and a maintenance breeze since makes me think he will give another good effort. His sire, Sky Mesa, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Hopeful S at Saratoga in his second career start and the G2 Breeders' Futurity in his 3rd career start at Keeneland. Royal Mesa's broodmare sire, Political Force, won the G1 Suburban H at Belmont Park for his only graded stakes win but he also ran 2nd in the Met Mile, also at Belmont. He finished 3rd in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in his career finale, beaten by Curlin, after being bothered in the early stretch run.

I will use the 7)Twobirdsonestone(10-1) in my exacta box. He has five career starts, all sprints, and has shown very little. But his bloodlines suggests he will improve as the distances gets longer, so basically the trainer has decided he needs more ground(go figure) to give it his best chance. Flavien Prat picks up the mount, which is a major upgrade from the ones who has ridden him thus far. His sire, Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont S, spoiling Smarty Jones TC bid and then won the G1 Travers S. Twobirdsonestone's broodmare sire, Pure Prize, won the G2 Ky Cup Classic at 1 1/8 miles in his career finale and never won any race at under a mile, including his maiden race. He was a son of one of Ogden Phipps prized fillies, which there were quite a few and he was bred and owned by Phipps.

The 4)Revenio(10-1) will be the one I use for my trifecta box. He has made one career start and was checked at the top of the stretch, losing all momentum, per equibase charts. That start came in the same race as my top choice, so he merits another opportunity to me, because he should be closer to the pace(if his bloodlines comes out in him) after gaining a little experience and making it less likely he will encounter trouble. Both sire and broodmare sire was speedy, to say the least. Could Upset.

9)Cowboy Diplomacy(3-1) will complete my super box, though I believe he will eventually be better at sprinting compared to middle distance racing. While his sire, Tapizar, was good in middle distances, his broodmare sire, Henny Hughes, was loads better while sprinting.

My Bets for race 3: $5 Ex Box 7-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-9-10(2.40), $1 Super Key 10 with 4-7-9 boxed underneath($6). Total Bets $24.40.

RACE 4: O/C $62,500--- 3 YOs Which Have Not Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races Or Claiming Price $62,000--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $101,000.

My Choice to WP will be the 1) Mr Midtown(15-1). He won his 3rd start back in a $50,000 Mdn Claiming race, then was raise in class against competition that proved too tough for him this early in his career. Now he drops a notch and he should break better against these which will improve his chance to upset. While his trainer has done very little at this meet this year, he popped several longshots at OP last year.

6) All Bizness(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He beat my top choice in their last race, but he did it with a late kick after the winner tired the other speed out. His trainer, William Fires, is a long time competitor at OP and trained Archarcharch to win the Arkansas Derby.

7)Last Judgement(3-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His trainer is Todd Pletcher and jockey is John Velazquez. He has some decent works and some bloodlines in his dam family that makes me think he will fire his best shot.

3)Nacogdoches(8-1) was originally my top choice but after taking another look, I feel him, Half Ours To Keep and Dessman will hook up early, setting this race up for a late charge. Both his sire, Super Saver and his broodmare sire, Lion Heart, were better when they could get the early lead and relax in the middle stages of the race.

My Bets: $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-6, $1 Tri Box 1-6-7, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-7, .50 Super Key the 6 on top and box the 1-3-7 underneath(slight adjustment in my key super because I like both about the same). Total Bets $41.40.

RACE 5: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP is 7)Honoring Major(6-1). He is the only one in this field who has a 6 furlong work since his last and it is actually a solid work for OP workouts. His owner, AJ Foyt Jr, is a former race car driver but has owned some good horses through the years. His trainer, William Fires, also trains the 6)All Bizness for AJ Foyt Jr in the previous race. But in this race, he is putting his son-in-law on the horse, and he was also the regular rider of Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch. Personally will not bet against this one.

5)High Sheriff(12-1) will be the one I use to complete my exacta box. He looks like he is beginning to figure out what racing is all about and he has bloodlines to compete against the best when he does. His trainer, D Wayne Lukas, like winning races on racing's biggest day and his works since his last indicates Lukas is up to his old tricks. I look for him to drift up in odds from his morning line and is, IMO, a value play.

4)Rotation(5-2) completed against winners in his last on a speed favoring Sunland Park and will appreciate the shift to OP surface, where late runners at least have a decent shot. The Riley Allison Derby has on occasion produced some solid runners. Also has good works since that effort. Expect another solid effort.

I am going to throw the 1) Tiz A Secret into my super box. He has a pedigree that should like this distance a lot better than the 5 furlong sprint he is coming out of.

My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta box 5-7, $1 Tri Box 4-5-7, $.50 Super Box 1-4-5-7, $1 Super Key 7 with 1-4-5 boxed underneath. Total Cost $54)

RACE 6: O/P $50,000--- 4 YOs & Up Which Have Not Won 2 Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Have Never Won 3 Races Or Claiming Price $50,000--- 1 Mile--- Purse $97,000.

I am going to pass on betting this race because I really do not like anyone who I am willing to risk money on.

RACE 7: The Azeri S(G2)--- 4 YOs & Up Fillies---- 1 1/16 Mile--- Purse $350,000.

I like the 1) Tapa Tapa Tapa(10-1) to WP. She is the only real front running speed in the race but whoever tries to go early with her will likely pay late in the race. I feel the big three will be more concerned about each other and could let her slip away. She has already beaten Elate when allowed to cruise.

2)Midnight Bisou(6-5) will be my choice for second. I believe she will be the closest pursuer that has a chance to stay close enough early.

4)Eskimo Kisses(5-1) will be the one to complete my tri box. I think she will be closer to her top race than Elate.

5) Elate(8-5) will be my fourth choice simply because I do not like the other two at all against these.

My Bet $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-2, $1 Tri Box 1-2-4. $5 Super Key 1 With 2-4 With 2-4 With 5. Total Bets $46.

RACE 8: Rebel S(G2)--- First Division--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000.

9)Improbable(3-5) looks unbeatable in this spot. His 3rd dam, Turkish Tryst, is also the dam of Hard Spun, 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby. However, I am not convince he wants to go this far without a track that helps him out a lot. So while I will use him in my trifecta box, I believe I will try to beat him. Equibase charts notes he pulled early in his last race, indicating he was fighting the jockey who was trying to get him to rate. He beat those on a heavy speed favoring track, but what will he do when the track does not give him as much help?

The one I like is 4) Easy Shot(15-1). His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, likes for his horse to lay off the pace and finish strong. And there is plenty of speed to keep the heavy favorite busy. The only reason I am willing to use the favorite in here is because this is the lighter division of the two races.

I am going to pull a shocker and use 7)Classy John(15-1) in my exacta box. Yes, his sire was speedy but he did wire the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2001 beating none other than City Zip before finishing 5th in the G1 Florida Derby when he was wide throughout and could not get near the rail, beaten by that year's Ky Derby winner, Monarchos, but also had to let City Zip show the way until he went around him turning for home.

Since I am wasting money, might as well throw the 6)Ninth Street(50-1) in my super box too. He looks like he might be willing to run a little late and his jockey is known more for moving a horse late much better than getting one on the lead. His only two terrible races so far has been when his jockeys pushed him early, which he clearly does not want. Santana picks up the mount and Asmussen decided to remove the blinkers.

My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta Box 4-7, $1 Tri Box 4-7-9, .10 Super box 4-6-7-9, $.50 Super Key 7 With 4-6-9 boxed underneath. Total Bets $41.40.

Race 9: Essex H--- 4 YOs & Up---- 1 1/16 Mile--- $350,000.

I like the 2)Hence(9-2) to WP. He won his fourth start back and now looks like he is beginning to peak again. Or he may have been in shape the whole time but could not beat the horses he was facing in a couple of them. Either way, he is my choice.

9)Rated R Superstar(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Not a big fan of his but with the jockey switch and a trainer who usually flies under the radar, why not?

7)Snapper Sinclair(9-2) will be the one I use to complete my trifecta box.

3)Sonneteer(5-1) looks most likely to crash my exacta and trifecta bets, but I do not like him enough to put him any higher than my super.

My Bets: $10 WP 2, $5 Ex Box 2-9, $1 Tri Box 2-7-9, $.10 Super Box 2-3-7-9, $1 Super Key 2 With 3-7-9 Boxed underneath. Total Bets: $44.40.

RACE 10: Rebel S(G2) 2nd Division---3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000.

My Choice To WP is the 4)Jersey Agenda(15-1). He is getting a major jockey switch from Santana to Jose Ortiz, a much better jockey in getting a horse out of the gate. He has at least four top running and/or producing fillies showing in his five generation pedigree.

5)Game Winner(4-5) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Rosario has ridden him in 3 of 4 starts and Baffert will usually not replace a jockey until he loses on a horse or he thinks the horse was given a bad ride. I would have been concerned if I saw anyone else(in this case) abroad.

8)Gunmetal Gary(10-1) is my choice to complete my trifecta box. He has the bloodlines to win at 1 1/4 miles more than this distance, but he could upset these if the pace gets too testy.

7)Our Braintrust(6-1) is my choice to complete the super box. His sire, Freud, is a full brother to Giant's Causeway. His broodmare sire, Trust N Luck, wired the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2003 before running second in the G1 Florida Derby, to eventual 2nd place Ky Derby finisher, Empire Maker. Look for him to hang around and if one or two others breaks a little slow, he could be long gone.

My Bets: $10 WP 4, $5 Exacta Box 4-5, $1 Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-8, $3 Super Key 5 With 4-7-8. Total Bets $56.40.

RACE 11: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs ---- 6 Furlongs ---- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP is 3) Tut's Revenge(15-1). After a couple of tries at stretching out, the trainer decided to shorten him back up to 6 furlongs. He decided to add blinkers, most likely to help the horse to focus and stop looking around. In both stretch out, he drew poorly and now moves near the rail.

8)Nifty(3-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta box. He has ran solidly in both his starts and should find these a little easier.

10)Firecrow(7-2) is the most likely of the first time starters to get the lead, if he breaks alertly and could wire. But that is the question?

9)Youvesaiditall(8-1) will be my choice to complete the super. Another first time starter, but one who should not need the lead to perform his best, if he runs to his bloodlines he could upset these.

My Bets: $10 WP 3, $5 Exacta Box 3-8, $1 Tri Box 3-8-10, $.10 Super Box 3-8-9-10, $1 Super Key 3 With 8-9-10 boxed underneath. Total Cost $44.40.
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Preview of the Rebel Stakes and more

The big weekends of racing roll on as we draw closer and closer to the Kentucky Derby. This weekend will be looking at five more races highlighted by a split division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Oaklawn Park is running a tremendous card on Saturday including Maiden Special Weight races being run for astronomical $100,000 purses, a $50,000 claiming race that carries a $97,000 purse and will feature the strapping, super talented Dessman in the fourth race.
On top of all that, we will also be taking a look at far and away the most competitive race of the weekend in the Azeri Stakes for four year olds and up fillies a mares, which drew two of best females in the country in Elate and Midnight Bisou.
As strongly as the Azeri drew, the Essex Handicap drew equally as weak. Regardless, we will be breaking down the $350,000, mile and sixteenth contest for four year olds and up.
Elsewhere, we will be look at the Inside Information at Gulfstream Park, a seven furlong dash for four year olds and up fillies and mares.
Oaklawn Park
Race: 7 (4:21 PM EST Post)
Azeri Stakes
Elate is a two time Grade: 1 winner and is a neck and a head away (behind Champion Abel Tasman) from being a four time Grade:1 winner. Needless to say, she was clearly the second best older female in the country last year. Although she will be making her first start in over six months, she seems to run well fresh and she has been working steadily at Payson Park for the last several months……………………Although beaten fair and square by Monomoy Girl several times last year, I’m sticking to my guns that Midnight Bisou still has a world of talent and should continue to get better and better as she gets older. She was clearly the second best three year old filly last year. Filly by the gargantuan Midnight Lute sports an impressive 12-6-3-3 career record and is an eye popping 5 for 5 at this distance. I’m not worried that this will be her first start in 48 days as she has run HUGE off of three prior layoffs in her career and that 5 furlong drill (1:00 flat) two weeks ago at the Fair Grounds signals readiness…..figures bang up in this spot…………………….I’m not quite sure what to make of 2018 Female Sprint Champion Shamrock Rose in this spot after finishing a disappointing fourth in her 2019 debut. I mean, did she need the race? Did she not like the sloppy track? Or, after rattling off four straight wins, including the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, to end the year last year is she now “over the top”? That said, I’m inclined to give this stretch running filly by the hulking First Dude one more shot and put her on a few tickets…………………..Honorable Mentions: Eskimo Kisses probably “bounced over the moon” while showing very little in her last race (Spinster) last year after an enormous effort in winning the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in her previous race. Filly by To Honor and Serve was put away for the year after that race. She shows up her with so-so works but she does have an affinity for this track as her 3-2-1-0 record over it would indicate………………………..Tapa Tapa Tapa has speed and the rail and comes off a big win at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Gray mare by Tapit looks overmatched in this spot but that monster five furlong work last week (:59 flat) is a attention getter. Any horse that works that fast on a notoriously deep surfaced racetrack like TBD merits a look. (My Play: .50 Trifecta box using all 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 8 (4:57 PM EST Post)
Rebel Stakes (Division: 1)
If you don’t like Improbable, stop reading now because I love him. He’s big, fast and has an amazingly long, beautiful and very efficient stride. Only Instagrand comes close to matching him in that area. This chestnut is 3 for 3 in his career and has won at six furlongs, a mile and a mile and a sixteenth over three different surfaces. He has excellent tactical speed and already is an easy Grade: 1 winner. He’s been running a hole in the wind in the mornings, (so much so I found myself riveted to the computer screen while watching them) so throw out the fact that this will be his first race in over three month as he certainly looks ready. You can also throw out the fact that he is by City Zip, who throws mostly grass horses and sprinters, because this guy is giving me every indication that he is special….down the road here…………………I also like Galilean quite a bit too. This drop dead gorgeous, $600,000 son of Uncle Mo has decimated Cal breds in his last two races and I especially liked his last race. Note how he won by 4 ½ while on “cruise control” but also note it was another 10 lengths back to the third place finisher. Like Improbable, he’s won at six furlongs, seven furlongs, a mile and a mile and a sixteenth and seems to be getting better as the distances get longer. As he swims out into deep waters in this spot, I don’t know he can handle a monster like Improbable but this is a quality horse with a big, big future ahead of him……………………….Although Long Range Toddy is giving me little hints that he is beginning to cycle out of form, I’m not buying that fact yet. This stretch running colt sports a 6-3-1-1 career record and, on back class alone, he looks the best of the rest……………….Honorable Mentions: Easy Shot chased Gunmetal Gray and Mucho Gusto in his last two and wasn’t completely embarrassed by either one of them…………………....Classy John looks overmatched here but, although he’s been facing MUCH softer competition, he is 5-3-2-0 in his career including a couple of Restricted Stakes wins at the Fair Grounds…… One last note about this race, can someone please tell me what a horse (Proud Nation), who was beaten by 40 lengths in a Maiden Special Weight race last time out, is doing in this race???? (My play: $500.00 to win on Improbable)

Race: 9 (5:29 PM EST Post)
Essex Handicap
Giant Expectations led and yielded late against the recently deceased Battle of Midway and McKinzie in his last at Santa Anita. He clearly will meet noooooo such rivals in this spot. Although he hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in 15 months, he just needs to run close to what he did last time and he’ll cruise in this race……………..After seven consecutive dull efforts, Rated R Superstar turned on the afterburners down the stretch of the Razorback Handicap in his last and finished a close up third at 80-1. He is another who likes this track and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well…………………….Heavy Roller is peaking out in form right now after blowing out Allowance foes in his last. Looks best of a very weak rest…. for a $350,000 Stakes race. (My Play: $5.00 exacta box. Cost $30.00)

Race: 10 (6:06 PM EST Post)
Rebel Stakes (Division: 2)
Unbeaten three time Grade: 1 winner and 2018 Two Year Old Colt Champion Game Winner really needs no introduction here. He looks to have filled out and put on muscle from the last time we saw him while winning the Breeders’ Cup Male Juvenile in November. He’s been out working his (older) work mate (Stakes runner Dr. Dorr) consistently in the mornings but let’s put all those facts aside for a minute. Over the years I’ve learned that when certain horse people talk…..I listen. Trainer Bob Baffert is one of those people. When he said that this colt was the “Michael Jordan” of his barn a few weeks ago, you know he caught my attention. For a trainer, who has trained not one but two Triple Crown winners, to call a horse Michael Jordan, what can I possibly say to trump that?...............................I know this might sound a bit odd, but I thought Gunmetal Gray ran a better race in finishing second to Mucho Gusto in the Robert B. Lewis last time out than he did in coming from way back to win the Sham Stakes while beating Much Better, the highly touted Coliseum and Sueno his previous time out. How you may ask? Simple….he had a super hot pace (first half mile in :46.4) in front of him in the Sham and as expected, there was a nuclear pace meltdown. This guy came along and blew by everyone down the lane albeit in a very pedestrian :27.1 final quarter mile.….That race setup perfectly for him. It was quite the contrary in the RB Lewis where the track was sloppy and clearly playing towards early speed. There, he was some 11 lengths behind early with virtually no chance of making up that kind of ground on such a speed biased surface. Yet when Mike Smith set him down for the drive, he passed everyone on the far outside but the winner. With no rain in the forecast and a couple of early burners in this race, it could set up well for him once again………………….Omaha Beach is very intriguing to me too. Another gorgeous horse with a beautiful stride, he could not have looked any better while breaking his maiden at Santa Anita in his last. This son of War Front ripped off mind boggling fast fractions in the slop (:21.3, :43.3 and 1:08.1) on his way to annihilating his foes by nine lengths and stopping the clock in 1:21 flat for seven furlongs. He is all of about three lengths away from being unbeaten in five career starts and has methodically improved through all five of those races as well. Moreover, his last six furlong work (1:10.3) was one of the best works I’ve seen in quite some time….no way I leave him off my tickets…………………………Honorable Mentions: After Our Braintrust was purchased privately (for a sum that I’m sure dwarfs the $25,000 originally paid for him) after the Jerome Stakes, this son of Freud just missed winning the Withers Stakes in NY his last time out. He is still another who has improved through each of his first five races and has yet to be off the board….could be a menace again in this spot…………………….If you are hunting long shot, take a look at Laughing Fox. This $375,000 son of Union Rags is yet another who has improved dramatically through his first four career races topped off by beating first level optionals his last time out. Of course, being 2 for 2 on this oval won’t hurt his chances either, nor will the fact that Ricardo Santana gets the leg up. (My Play: $1 triple box using all 5. Cost $60.00)

Gulfstream Park
Race: 11 (5:37 PM EST Post)
Inside Information Stakes
Jala Jala was an absolute win machine in her native country of Mexico but proved she can handle American racing as well while winning two of three starts in the U.S. on this oval. Although she finished second last time out, this chestnut five year old mare might have run her best race ever while chasing the talented Blamed and only being beaten by 1 ½ lengths. Bullet work at Palm Meadows last week signals to me she is holding form…….looks best……………..Tequilita finished just a neck behind Jala Jala last time out and this mare by Union Rags loves this track as her 4-2-1-1 record over it would indicate…………..America’s Tale has good speed and draws towards this inside. Good looking filly by Gio Ponti won three straight, on the engine, to end last year. Go ahead and throw out her last race (on the turf) as she is 5 for 11 on the dirt and 0 for 5 on the turf. Figures prominent throughout here…………..Honorable Mentions: Pink Sands is a $625,000 filly by Tapit who might be starting to get her act together. This Shug McGaughey trainee has hit the board in eight of 10 career starts and, more importantly, is 2 for 2 over this surface. In fact, in both of those wins her final times and closing quarter miles were very good. Bottom line here is I won’t be at all that shocked if she outruns this rating………………………Although Teresa Z will be making her first start in over four months, and she has a habit of needing a race or two off a layoff, it must be noted this $635,000 mare by Smart Strike quietly had a big year last year. She won a pair of Stakes races, including a Grade: 3 by six lengths in NY, and sandwiching those races by chasing the mega talented Elate and a very good Wow Cat. She will meet no such rivals in this spot. (My Play: .50 Triple box, using all 5. Cost: $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 16-47 = 34% (My Plays: -$1,007.76)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Santa Anita Park's main track opened March 11 for jogging and galloping, the first time horses were allowed onto it in nearly a week. Timed workouts also resumed on the training track the same day.
Monday was also the first day that Santa Anita's new safety protocols were implemented. Horsemen had to submit forms the previous day if they wanted to work horses on the training track. Tim Ritvo, chief operating officer of The Stronach Group, said that trainers had applied for 150 horses to work on the training track.
"We flagged about 12 of those horses and asked the trainers not to work those horses this morning," Ritvo said. Criteria used to flag horses included ones that have been away from the races for an extended period of time and hadn't worked in the past 120 days, said Ritvo.
"We got full cooperation with that," he said. "Everybody said they completely understood. I think it's the beginning of hopefully all working together. It just felt good."
Ritvo met with track consultant Dennis Moore the morning of March 11 to see how the analysis of the track was proceeding. "Step one was to look at the base, to make sure there's no erosion," Ritvo said. "The second thing is the soil analysis. The last thing is, 'is it even everywhere?'" Ritvo said Moore was pleased with how the track was progressing and that racing has been “tentatively set to resume March 22”.
Update: a 22nd horse broke down at Santa Anita during Thursday morning workouts. The Santa Anita brass is holding steadfast that the track will remian open. More this as the story unfolds

**** A couple of attention getters from Ocala Breeders Sales this past week:
Topping the session was a New York-bred colt by Tapit out of Grade: 1 winner Artemis Agrotera, who breezed one furlong in a strong :10 1/5, was purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds, Rob Masiello and Siena Farm, for $2 million.
* Off an impressive :21 1/5 quarter mile breeze, Larry Best of OXO Equine, landed a Pioneerof the Nile colt for $1.2 million.
The colt is out of the Multiple Stakes placed Golden Artemis and who is the dam of Grade: 1 winner My Conquestadory and promising 3 year old colt Bourbon War, who came flying home to get second Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park three weeks ago. Golden Artemis herself brought $1 million at the Fasig-Tipton November Sales in 2013.

* Phoenix Thoroughbreds bought three horses, topped off by a Bernardini colt out of Canadian champion grass mare Inish Glora for $825,000. The colt ripped one furlong in :09 4/5.
“Obviously, he’s fast–fast and beautiful,” said Tom Ludt, Phoenix’s head of operations. “It’s expensive right now, but he’s a really good colt. He galloped out great. That’s what we’re looking for. Now we just need to get him to do it over a little bit longer distance.”
The colt will be heading to Steve Asmussen’s barn.

* Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm paid $675,000 to land a Candy Ride half sister to U.S. champion sprinter Drefong.
Drefong, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner was retired to stud for the 2018 season to stand at Teruya Yoshida’s Shadai Stallion Station in Hokkaido, Japan.
“She was really good, and when we looked at her black-type page, Drefong’s name was on it. We are very excited to buy her,” Northern Farm Shigaraki Manager Yasuhiro Matsumoto said. “She was really good looking and her walk was very nice. We were here for her work out and her form was very good. We’re going to bring her back to Japan and hope that she will have a good racing career.”


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Preview of the Florida Derby and more

One of the bigger Kentucky Derby prep races that takes place this weekend is our highlighted race; the $1 million, nine furlong, Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
The entire card at Gulfstream is huge, as it includes seven other Stakes races. Of these, we will be looking at four. The Gulfstream Park Mile, the Gulfstream Park Oaks for three year old fillies and the marathon Pan American Stakes.
Elsewhere, we move west for a look at three races at Santa Anita Park. They include the Grade: 1 Beholder Mile for three year olds and up fillies and mares, the Grade:1 Frank E. Kilroe Turf Mile for four year olds and up, and the San Carlos, a seven furlong dash for three year olds and up.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the Dubai World Cup on Saturday. Although I won’t be playing any of the races, a full field of 13 has been entered with more than half being U.S. based runners. The list includes Gunnevera, Audible, Seeking the Soul, Pavel, Gronkowski, Axelrod and Yoshida. Also entered is the talented North America and defending Dubai World Cup Champion Thunder Snow.
Other U.S. runners on the card include True Timber and Coal Front (race 2), Stormy Liberal (race 4), and Gray Magician and Plus Que Parfait (race 5). On a side note in race 5, I will be closely watching the well named and super talented Walking Thunder as well as Van Beethoven as possible Kentucky Derby runners.
Race 6 looks strong as well as Imperial Hint and X Y Jet will square off in that one. Roy H was entered but will scratch with a foot abcess.

Saturday, March 30, 2019
Gulfstream Park
Race: 4 (1:00PM EST Post)
Gulfstream Park Mile
Prince Lucky is 5 for 9 in his career and was sparkling in his 2019 debut. Gelding by Corinthian destroyed his rivals in the Hal’s Hope when winning by 6 and stopping the clock in a fleet 1:34.4 for one mile…..logical choice………………..Be Gone Daddy has won his last two while coming from way back early with scintillating stretch runs. This son of Scat Daddy is razor sharp right now and he loves this track as he’s 3 for 5 at GP but 1 for 9 everywhere else. Takes a sizable step up in class here however……………….Although Guy Caballero is 0 for his last 7 and just 2 for 18 in his career, he has been “right there” in his last 5 races in a row. Note, he too will be taking a steep step up in class. (My Play: $100.00 win on Prince Lucky. Cost $100.00)

Race: 8 (3:00PM EST Post)
Gulfstream Park Oaks
Cookie Dough blew the doors off of Restricted Stakes runners on this oval twice to end 2018. Filly by Brethren was just a little short in her 2019 debut (Grade: 2 Davona Dale) as she was caught on the wire by a 51-1 shot after leading every step of the way. That race and a big work two weeks ago (5F- 1:00 flat) should have her “tighter” for this…..narrow margin in very competitive field…………………Dunbar Road is a $350,000 daughter of Quality Road who went off at 8/5 in her racing debut and won like an 8/5 shot should. This Chad Brown trainee took command of that race leaving the half mile pole (in :46.4) and was visually impressive drawing off to win by almost 9 lengths. She’ll be stepping up in company and stretching out in distance but she is scary none the less…………………….Point of Honor used an impressive four wide, sweeping move to the lead when winning her debut back in December at Gulfstream Park then came back in February to manhandle the field in the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Unbeaten filly by Curlin will be making her first start in 49 days and her works are so-so at best……………Honorable Mentions: Champagne Anyone has yet to run a bad race in five career starts including holding her own in her last three straight (Graded Stakes) races………………Safta is still a maiden but had two legitimate excuses in her one and only race. Filly by Dialed In missed the break and she was so wide throughout that race, I thought she was trying to get a hot dog from the 2nd level concession stand yet was still making up ground late. She could be a menace here at long odds with a cleaner trip and the stretch out in distance should only help her. (My play: $1.00 trifecta box using all. Cost $60.00)

Race: 13 (6:00PM EST Post)
Pan American Stakes
Bigger Picture is another who could not have looked any better in his 2019 debut. This now eight year old powered home down the lane while overcoming a dawdling early pace to win by 3 ½ going away lengths at Sam Houston in January. I have zero concerns about the 2-0-0-0 career record on this turf course for this 12 time winner…………….Soglio is about three quarters of a length away from coming into this riding a four race win streak including just missing in the W. L McKnight on this turf course last time out. This son of Scat Daddy has hit the board in 10 of his last 12 races and has never been off the board on the GP “weeds”. Slight edge over the others based on consistency………………Focus Group ran one heck of a race when last seen on Oct 13 in Canada in the Canadian International. This five year old rallied from last, with a 6 wide move on the turn, to get up for third in that race. I’m not sure I like his training (steady half mile works) for a 12 furlong race and this being his first start in over 5 months, but this cat has run big off long layoffs before………………………....Honorable Mentions: Melmich has run back to back bang up races since arriving from Canada at the beginning of the year including just missing behind Zulu Alpha at 13-1 in a Grade: 2 last time out. No surprise if he runs well in this spot……………Canessar probably needed his effort in the aforementioned W.L. McKnight on Jan 26 as it was his first start since last July. Unique looking French invader has run very well in all six U.S. starts including several Graded Stakes races…………………Nessy, who is just 3 for 27 in his career and hasn’t really been close to winning since last April, does have some back class but he’s going to need a form reversal to be competitive here. (My play: $100.00 win on Bigger Picture & $1.00 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $160.00)

Race: 14 (6:30 PM EST Post)
Florida Derby
I repeat, Hidden Scroll ran one of the most impressive debut race wins I’ve seen in all of my almost 40 years of being involved in this sport when winning by 14 lengths, scoring a 104 speed figure and finishing a mile in 1:34.4. Trainer Bill Mott brought him back in the Fountain of Youth where lost tribes in the Amazon could see he was out of control early while rattling off super fast early fractions. I thought he did well to hang on for fourth as that was just his second career start and in such a tough spot. Since then, Mott has been teaching him to rate and all reports indicate he took to those tactics very well. “From what I've seen he has no problem (doing it). It shows he won't be a one-dimensional (speed) horse, and that gives a jockey a little more knowledge going into a race and, obviously, more options while in the race." said Garrett O'Rourke, general manager for Juddmonte Farms who own the colt. So what happens? Lo and behold this colt draws the #1 post position, which means he’ll have to use his early speed to secure a good position early, a sharp contrast to what he is being taught in the mornings. I’m sure his connections must have been sick at the post position draw on Wednesday. Don’t read too much into the fact that Joel Rosario hops off of him here as Rosario had already committed to riding Game Winner in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, you probably get a slight rider upgrade here as Castellano will be taking the reins. If anyone can work out a good trip and keep this colt relaxed early, it’s Castellano. That said, it’s now or never for this gorgeous bay as if he wins, it’s on to Churchill with just three career starts, if they beat him, then throw the Derby out the window completely………………………Code of Honor bounced back nicely from the inexplicable drubbing he took in his 2019 debut. As I mentioned previously, trainer Shug McGaughey gave him several weeks off and “rebooted” him and this colt responded beautifully in winning the Fountain of Youth last time out. Although he only won by three quarters of a length, I loved the way he was striding out in deep stretch; it signals that there was a lot more there and he will only get better as the season moves on and the distances get longer. Back to back bullet works at the notoriously deep track at Payson Park only adds to it. Those lost tribes in the Amazon I mentioned before can also see this horse is sitting on another big race…………………………..Harvey Wallbanger went from Maiden winner in November to 30-1 upset winner of the Holy Bull in February. Although he has never been worse than second in five career starts, he still needs to prove that he belongs. Yes, his Holy Bull was impressive but he got a wickedly fast pace in front of him and an absolutely perfect, rail skimming trip. What happens if the pace is slower and/or he has some traffic issues? Also, with such huge race off the layoff, will he “bounce” in this spot? His last two works, which were supersonic, say no, he won’t. Bottom line here is I’m not completely sold on him …..yet……………………..Honorable Mentions: I hate to put Bourbon War this far down, I really, really do. This $410,000 son of super sire Tapit was absolutely flying low at the end of the Fountain of Youth and almost caught Code of Honor, missing by just three quarters of a length at the wire. I wonder how much different things would have been in that race if he wasn’t six wide at the quarter pole? Anyway, the same goes for this colt as it does for Harvey Wallbanger as he too took advantage of a nuclear pace meltdown late in the Fountain of Youth, so he could be in trouble also with a slower early pace………………………Once again, in all of my almost 40 years of being in this sport, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a trainer winning at a 45% clip with 73 starters as Jason Servis is right now. I can’t even wrap my head around that. Anyway, Servis brings Maximum Security into this off of three consecutive, colossal wins including his last by an astounding 18 lengths. Yes, all those races were against inferior competition but the speed figures he’s posted in all three races say he can be competitive in this spot. This son of New Year’s Day is one of the more intriguing storylines in this race……………If you are hunting a long shot in this race, take a look at Garter and Tie, who has hit the board in 6 of 8 tries in his career (all over this oval) and wasn’t completely embarrassed by any stretch in the Holy Bull. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $30.00)

Santa Anita Park
Race: 5 (6:00PM EST Post)
Frank Kilroe Mile
Catapult moved way too soon in none other than the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup Turf in his 2019 debut yet still “ran on” to finish a very good fourth. So, there is no surprise to see a rider change (from Rosario back to Drayden Van Dyke). This $350,000 son of Kitten’s Joy had a big year last year including back to back Grade: 2 wins in super fast final times. This dark bay 6 year old has worked very well since and he looks all systems go in this spot………………It appears as though River Boyne poses the biggest threat out of the rest of this field. Although running an even fourth in his last, it must be noted he too is a multiple Graded Stakes winner who has won 7 of 15 career starts and, perhaps more importantly, is an attention getting 6 for 7 on this turf course. Figures bang up here…………………..Next Shares showed little in the aforementioned Pegasus World Cup Turf in his last but I suspect he didn’t like the turf course labeled “yielding” that day. Six year old by Archarcharch had won three of his four prior to that and did take down the Grade: 1 Shadwell Mile last year, so you know there is some back class there. Threat should he bounce back to form…………………Honorable Mentions: Ohio is off to a good start this year. Eight year old by Elusive Quality just missed in his last (prep race for this) and pounded a Stakes field in January prior to that in noting more than an in hand gallop…………………..Hunt won the Grade: 1 Shoemaker Mile last year but has done very little since, including being conclusively beaten by Catapult twice recently. Gray seven year old poses a long shot threat should he bounce back to his old form. (My play: $100 win on Catapult & $1 trifect box using all 5. Cost $160.00)

Race: 6 (6:30PM EST Post)
San Carlos Stakes
Dr. Dorr chased Accelerate (twice), Diversify and Catalina Cruiser in his last four races last year. Although he will be making his first start since August, this now six year old, who is Game Winner’s morning workout partner, cuts back to a distance he can handle and has been working very well for his return. Can anybody get them ready to run of a layoff better than Baffert? Lastly, note he is 5 for 8 at Santa Anita and 0 for 7 everywhere else…..narrowest of margins in a very close, competitive horse race………………Speaking of stats, Kanthaka is 6-3-1-1 at Santa Anita and this is clearly, and I mean, clearly, his best distance. Stretch runner by Jimmy Creed is 3 for 4 at seven panels but 0 for 4 at every other distance they’ve tried him. Excellent work pattern coming into this. Note how he valiantly chased two time Champion Sprinter Roy H last time out and absolutely held his own against him…………………….I wonder which Ax Man we will see on Saturday? The one who showed brief speed then folded his tent like a circus leaving town (finished 12th, beaten eight lengths) in the Malibu Stakes in December or the one who was absolutely sensational in wiring optional claimers last time out in January. The newly gelded son of Misremembered ran a hole in the wind (:22, :44, 1:08.3) while beating some of the better sprinters on the West Coast and roaring down the lane in 1:21 and change at this seven furlong distance. He’s hard to play on top but can’t completely throw him out either. …………………….Honorable Mentions: After several lackluster efforts, Touching Rainbows might have signaled a return to form in beating a Restricted Stakes field last time out. This 6 year old by Aragorn is still another who loves this surface as his 5 for 8 record over it would indicate and should be tighter with this being his second race off a layoff………………………….Solid Wager returns to the West Coast after a successful, yet short journey to New York. This durable eight year old, who will be making his 51st career start, won the Grade: 3 Toboggan and then chased the speedy Stan the Man in a high level claimer, at a distance that was not his best, in his two races there. Bay gelding is also 6 for 11 at this distance. (My play: $1.00 trifecta box using all 5. Cost $60.00)

Race: 9 (8:00PM EST Post)
Beholder Mile
2018 Eclipse Award finalist Marley’s Freedom made a triumphant return to the races in Feb when winning the seven furlong Santa Monica Stakes in 1:22.1. Good looking, now five year old mare shows four super good works since, including her last when she went 5 furlongs in :59.4; 2nd best of a whopping 92 who worked the same distance that day. Don’t worry about her stretching out to a mile here. If she can win at a mile at Aqueduct in December, she can win at one mile at Santa Anita in March. Logical choice and hard to go against here……………..Selcourt has excellent early speed and draws towards the inside, signaling to me she will once again come out running and be the one to catch in this spot. $800,000 mare by Tiz Wonderful is 8-4-3-1 on this oval and has beaten Marley’s Freedom soundly in the past…..figures right there……………………….Although Mopotism is just 3 for 23 in her career, it must be noted she is back on her favorite surface (9-2-3-3 record over it) and back at her best distance (4-3-1-0 at one mile). Looks best of the rest in what also looks like a replay of the Santa Monica. (My play: $100.00 win on Marley's Freedom. Cost: $100.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 18-57 = 32% (My Plays: -$1,857.14)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** War of Will, who appeared to slip but definitely lost forward momentum at the start of the Louisiana Derby, seems to have come out of it ok, according to trainer Mark Casse.
“It's amazing how much better he was today,” Casse said on Monday after reports that he was “noticeably off” on his hind end on Sunday. “I just feel fortunate that he's okay first and foremost. We're fairly certain that he probably caught his patella a little bit right at the start. So what we'll do is we'll do some exercising and probably laser treatment to strengthen the patella muscle. But we feel optimistic that we can still make the Derby.”

**** Trainer Tom Amoss reported on Twitter that beaten 1/5 Fair Ground Oaks favorite Serengeti Empress bled during Saturday's race. The filly quickly established the lead in the 8 ½ furlongs but faded in the stretch run to finish last in the seven-horse field. She was eased up after the wire and given a precautionary ride back to her stall in the horse ambulance.

**** Grade: 3 Sham winner Gunmetal Gray is officially off the Kentucky Derby trail. The son of Exchange Rate breezed at Santa Anita on Sunday after which a condylar fracture was discovered and a surgical repair scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
Terry Finley, CEO of West Point Thoroughbreds who own the colt, said they won't know for at least 90 days whether the horse will recover to well enough to race again.
"It is not a slam dunk that he's coming back and it's not like he's done," Finley said. "The surgery went well, but we have a long road ahead. We are optimistic."

**** M. V. Magnier blew through the Gulfstream Park sales like a hurricane this past week.
Magnier spent $1.65 million on a colt by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah on Wednesday afternoon.
The colt was bred in Florida and is out of the Graded Stakes winning Tabasco Cat mare Spice Island, making him a half brother to Florida Derby winner Ice Box . He worked an eighth-mile in :10 2/5 during the March 25 under tack show.
As if that wasn’t enough, Magnier came back and spent an eye popping $3.65 million for a two year old colt by Curlin out of the Bernardini mare Achieving, making him a half brother to Stakes winner Counterforce. The colt worked an eighth of a mile in :10 flat at the under tack show also on March 25.


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Previews of the Gotham Stakes; Tampa Bay Derby and more


Needless to say, this weekend is jam packed with big races all over the country….. But it could have been a lot bigger.
With the blockbuster news that Santa Anita Park has been closed “indefinitely” due to an alarming 21st horse suffering a life ending injury during a training session four major races won’t be run this weekend.
Affectionately known as “the Big ‘Cap”, the Santa Anita Handicap, a major three year old Kentucky Derby prep race, the San Felipe Stakes, the Grade: 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the San Carlos for sprinters were all slated to be run and will be rescheduled.
This statement was released last Tuesday at 10:15PM:
“The Stronach Group announced the closure of Santa Anita Park for live racing and training effective immediately while the one mile main track undergoes additional extensive testing.
All stakes races scheduled for this upcoming weekend, including the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, the Grade II San Felipe and the Grade II San Carlos will be rescheduled.
“The safety, health and welfare of the horses and jockeys is our top priority,” said Tim Ritvo, Chief Operating Officer, The Stronach Group. “While we are confident further testing will confirm the soundness of the track, the decision to close is the right thing to do at this time”.
The additional testing of the track will be led by veteran Trackman Dennis Moore, expanding on the ground radar testing conducted earlier this week by the University of Kentucky's Dr. Mick Peterson. Measures will include utilizing an Orono Biomechanical Surface Tester, a device that mimics the impacts of a horse running at full gallop allowing engineers to see how the track holds up. These test results will be evaluated to ensure track consistency and uniformity for both training and racing.
Further, The Stronach Group will be conducting a comprehensive evaluation of all existing safety measures and current protocols.
This decision comes a little late. In all my 40 years of being involved in this sport, I can’t recall a time where 21 horses have lethally broken down in such a short, 10 week time span.
I’ve been to Santa Anita several times in the past year. I walked the upper stretch, the surface seems fine.
The whole situation is both tragic and baffling. The only thing I can come up with is the weather, as I’m not sure the Santa Anita surface was designed to stand up to it. Los Angeles and surrounding areas have been pounded with rain over the last several weeks and the temperatures are much lower than normal. Past that, I am very curious to see what these tests show.
With the cancellation of those races, the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the Tampa Bay Derby at, you guessed it, Tampa Bay Downs, will be our highlighted races of the week.
Other races we will be examining include the Honey Bee Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Busher at Aqueduct, both for three year old fillies.
Lastly, and although I’m not a big fan of the synthetic racing surface, we will be looking at the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for three year old males.

Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 10 (5:09 PM EST Post)
Gotham Stakes
Although there are several “play against” angles in regards to the very highly touted Instagrand, I can’t seem to pull the trigger in doing so. The $1.2 million son of Into Mischief will be making his first start in almost seven months. Will he be ready? How will he ship across the country? How will he handle going from 70 degrees in Southern California to Queens, New York where it’s expected to be in the low 40’s? How will he handle the surface change? And of course, how will he handle the mile distance when he’s never been over three quarters? I mentioned last week that Hidden Scroll was the most intriguing horse on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. If Hidden Scroll was #1, this colt is easily #2. The decision to come here was sheer brilliance by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer as he gets away from what is right now a dangerous surface and two dangerous horses in Game Winner and Improbable. It makes all the sense in the world that if you’re going to ask a horse to stretch out, why not do it at a one turn mile against what is clearly inferior competition and over a safer track? All that said, I still have no idea how good he is. He absolutely destroyed maidens in his debut and his rivals in the Grade: 2 Best Pal Stakes last summer while winning each race by 10 lengths. He’s been working well so he should be ready but remember the ultimate goal is the first Saturday in May, not the first Saturday in March. Past that, I’ll throw in my “eye test” angle as he was jaw dropping good last year and one more little tidbit. The talk around the Hollendorfer barn is they are putting this horse in the same league as the ill-fated Shared Belief. That, readers, is an enormous compliment…………......…….Based off his Grade: 1 win last year and his strong performance in winning the Jerome last time out, Mind Control is most likely the best three year old in New York. This handsome colt by Stay Thirsty has won three of his last four races and seems to be coming into this race in good shape. "Everything has gone according to plan. For the most part, he hasn't missed a beat. He's filled out, he's stronger, and his works have been well within himself. He couldn't be doing any better going into the Gotham," trainer Greg Sacco said………………………Haikai is a neck shy of being unbeaten in three starts including gamely winning the $150,000 Jimmy Winfield on this track last time out and scoring higher speed figures than Mind Control…must be considered in this spot……………………….Honorable Mentions: I really liked Not That Brady’s last three races, which consisted of two large margin wins vs. NYSB and super game second to Tax in the Withers Stakes. Chestnut gelding by Big Brown set the pace in the Withers, was passed by Tax, but lowered his head, dug in and fought back valiantly in the process. The cutback in distance should only help him in this spot and he could easily better this rating…………………..Much Better is a speedy, $600,000 son of Pioneerof the Nile from the Bob Baffert barn who ran huge vs. Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes in January and whistled home (6 ½ furlong in 1:15.3) three in front vs. high level optionals last time out….should come out running in this spot and could be a menace………………..What do you do with Knicks Go? On one hand he is a Grade: 1 winner and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but on the other hand, albeit with excuses, he showed little in last two races. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 11
Busher Stakes (5:40 PM EST Post)
Like Instagrand in the Gotham, Please Flatter Me is hard to go against in this spot. Filly by Munnings, who the owners paid $12,000 for but she has already made more than 12 times that amount, has won all three career starts “on the engine” and by a combined 18 ¼ lengths including two Stakes races. I also the liked the fact that, after ripping through the first half mile of her last, she came home the last furlong in a solid :12.3. This speedster will be stretching out in distance, stepping up in class and drew towards the outside. However, drawing the outside becomes somewhat neutralize in a one turn, mile race and she shows a pair of monster works recently….should make every pole a winning one here………………….Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of this field as they are difficult to separate. ….I’ll take a shot with the well bred Always Shopping to fill out the exacta. This good looking filly, by Awesome again out of the Grade: 1 Stakes placed Stopshoppingmaria, has methodically improved through each of her four career starts, highlighted by winning the Busanda Stakes on this oval last time out………………….Espresso Shot is 5-2-1-1 in her career and running very well in her last two on this track, including beating a restricted Stakes field in her last. Although it took her a very pedestrian :26.3 seconds to get the final quarter mile in that race, you must note that race was in the mud. If you go back to her previous race, note how she was charging hard, late to grab second in a fairly quickly run six furlong race. A fast track and a mile distance looks to be exactly what the Doctor ordered for her here……………………….Honorable Mentions: Ujjayi sports a 4-2-2-0 record, has speed, draws the rail and wired a Stakes field on this oval last time out. All that said, she’s faced Please Flatter Me twice recently and has been beaten by a combined (almost) 10 lengths………………………I hate to put Oxy Lady this far down, I really do as this might come back to bite me. This filly Oxbow ran the best race of her life in her one and only try on this surface and had legitimate excuses in her two races since (overmatched in the Grade: 1 Starlet at Los Al, yet she was only beaten by less than three lengths and probably needed her wide tripped, Rachel Alexandra Stakes effort in her last). Of course, having Castellano in the irons won’t hurt her chances either. Bottom line here is she could easily outrun this rating………………..If you want to think outside the box a little, take a look at the cleverly named Filly Joel, who has shown improved speed for trainer “Rudy Rod” in her last three races and cuts back in distance for this race. (My Play: .50 Trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $30.00)

Tampa Bay Downs
Race: 11 (5:25 PM EST Post)
Tampa Bay Derby
Win Win Win ran one of the better races by a three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby when he pulverized the field in the Pasco Stakes last time out. The colt by Hat Trick shattered the track record for seven furlongs when he stopped the clock in 1:20.4, which is almost unheard of for a surface that is so deep and sometimes quirky. He’s been training lights out since (49 days), signaling to me another big effort is upcoming. Although he’ll be trying a route of ground and two turns for the first time, I’m not real worried about it as a) he showed me no signs he was “done” late in the Pasco Stakes. In fact, he was moving very well in the last three furlongs, which he got in a very good :36.2, including the last furlong in :12.1 and b) note, both his grandsires were Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners, so he certainly has the bloodlines for more distance……………………The 123 days off that Dream Maker received evidently did him a world of good. Colt by super sire Tapit decimated a field of optional NW1X in his 2019 debut at the Fair Grounds while winning by 8 ½ lengths under very little pressure from his rider. Bottom line here is he looks to be the biggest threat to my top pick in this spot…………………………………I like Zenden in this spot too, but what’s up with his three career races being spaced so far apart? Makes me wonder. Anyway, this chestnut colt by Fed Biz won his first two career starts, with one being a minor Stakes race, before chasing (second) the talented Call Paul in his last in the Grade: 3 Swale Stakes at GP. He ran well that day being it was his first start in almost two months and Call Paul is a runner. That race should set him up very well in this spot and his past races and running style suggest he won’t have a problem with the route distance either………………………Honorable Mentions: Well Defined pulled off a 7-1, coast to coast upset in the Sam F Davis last time out, so he certainly merits attention. That said, a few things trouble me about him. One, he was all alone on an uncontested lead in the Sam Davis and I doubt that happens again in this spot. Two, he has a hard time putting wins back to back. Three, his recent works since have been….meh….ok, I guess………………......Outshine is a $625,000 son of Malibu Moon who closed late to win two of his first three starts, including his 2019 debut on Feb 10. He recorded a monster work last week at Palm Beach Downs and he should appreciate the stretch out in distance here………………………….Just a few other side notes about this race: Although he finished off the board, Sir Winston didn’t run all that bad in his return to the dirt surface for the first time since June in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in his last…….........Tacitus is clearly one of the best bred horses in training today being by Tapit out of five time Grade: 1 winner Close Hatches and he goes first time Lasix here……….Lastly, if you are looking for a long-shot, take a look at Dunph, who has run very well in three of his five career starts and had legitimate excuses in the other two. (My play: $50 to win on Win Win Win, .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $80.00).

Oaklawn Park
Race: 9 (5:09 PM EST Post)
Honey Bee Stakes
Motion Emotion was visually impressive running high level NW1X optionals off their feet while winning by almost 7 in her last and looking like the “real deal.” She improved her record to 2 for 2 on this oval in the process. Drawing towards the inside should only help her chances, should make every pole a winning one here even with the big step up in class………………….Power Gal is a stretch runner by powerhouse sire Empire Maker who has yet to run a bad race though four career starts, highlighted by winning the Martha Washington in her debut on this oval last time out. With rain in the forecast for Oaklawn, there are no worries about her as she can handle a wet track…………………..After poking her head in front in the drive, Marathon Queen yielded and finished just a half length behind Power Gal in the Martha Washington. That was an impressive feat being that was just filly by Super Saver’s second career start. Logical contender with normal improvement from career start #2 to career start #3………………………Honorable Mentions: After finishing a fast closing third in her debut, Raintree Scarlet has rattled off three impressive wins in her last three races, including taking down a Stakes race in her last. Filly by Get Stormy steps up and stretches out but could be a menace………………………Sunset Wish has also rattled of three straight wins before finishing a close up fourth in the Martha Washington after a troubled trip (rank early, took a minor bump and four wide on the turn). Filly by Malibu Moon could outrun this rating, especially with a cleaner trip…….Couple of long-shots to consider: Bizwhacks is consistent and ran an enormous race in the mud last time out, consider her if it rains.. and, based off her past performances, Chocolate Kisses might quietly be sitting on big race here. (My Play: $50 win on Motion Emotion and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)

Turfway Park
Race: 11 (6:37 PM EST Post)
Jeff Ruby Steaks
Somelikeithotbrown just missed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year and was a conclusive winner in 2019 debut (on the synthetics) on Feb 15. This son of the very gentle Big Brown should only be tighter for this his second start of the layoff…..logical choice here…….................….Skywire won his racing debut on the synthetics nicely, then closed very well, late to beat optional NW1X by 6 at Gulfstream Park in his last. Good looking colt by Afleet Alex takes the next logical step in this spot……………………........Five Star General probably needed his last in the Sam F. Davis, his 2019 debut. Colt by Distorted Humor won his last two races in 2018 and his work pattern suggests he will come out running in this spot……………..Honorable Mentions: Dabo returns to his best surface (synthetics) in this spot and executed a brazen, five wide run on the turn in his 2019 debut while finishing third to Somelikeithotbrown in his last. Threat in this spot as he should be “tighter for this” and get a little better trip………………..Dynamic Racer has shown improved early speed in 2019. Although he was beaten fair and square by the top choice last time out, he draws the rail, likes the synthetics and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well. Merits consideration even though his trainer is 6 for 185 (3%) in synthetics surface races…………..If you are hunting a long-shot, take a look at Curlin Grey, who is the complete opposite of Dynamic Racer as this colt has shown an improved late run in both 2019 races at Gulfstream but tries the synthetics for the first time. (My Play: $50 win on Somelikeithotbrown and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 15-42 = 36% (My Plays: -$815.76)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces

**** 62-1 shot Southwest Stakes winner Super Steed is off the Kentucky Derby trail because of bone bruising in a front leg, trainer Larry Jones said last Sunday morning.
Albeit the injury isn't career threatening, Jones said Super Steed will require 60-90 days of rest, eliminating any chance of running in the Kentucky Derby
"He's walking, but not perfect by any means," Jones said. "We just found out yesterday afternoon that's he got the issue because I galloped him yesterday and he came back and everything was good. He came out of that last race with a little more of an issue than I realized," Jones added.
"We did some X-rays, and it just looks like if we don't stop now, we're going to run into trouble. Thank God there's no surgery, no nothing needed. Just needs rest."
Jones said Super Steed will be sent to Kentucky to recover.

**** In another development last Sunday, trainer Jinks Fires said Smarty Jones winner Gray Attempt was no longer under consideration for the Rebel Stakes because of an undisclosed minor setback. Fires said the hope is to make the Arkansas Derby.

**** Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said last Friday that Bravazo was scheduled to undergo surgery at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., to address a knee issue.
Bravazo was pointing for the $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 30 in Dubai but the problem was detected after training Thursday morning, Lukas said.
"He galloped beautifully yesterday," Lukas said. "We thought he was tender coming off the wash rack, and we just got to the bottom of it. He's already gone (to Kentucky) … he had some gravel and garbage that they wanted to clean up."
Lukas said he expects Bravazo to return to his barn by June 1.
Bred and owned by Calumet Farm, Bravazo has a 3-4-3 record from 17 starts and earnings of $2,003,528.

**** Four time champion Beholder was confirmed in foal to sire War Front, Spendthrift Farm confirmed Friday.
The pregnancy is the third for Beholder, who produced an Uncle Mo colt in 2018, and a Curlin filly on Jan. 19.
Beholder, who won Eclipse Award titles as champion 2-year-old filly, 3-year-old filly, and two as champion older female, earned over $6 million on the racetrack.

**** Global Campaign, the half brother to the mega talented Bolt d’Oro by Curlin, “grabbed a quarter” (stepped on one of his front feet with a back foot) during his fifth place finish in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes.
“He grabbed a quarter, on the meaty part above the coronet band and ripped it back, and it's going to take some time to heal up,” said trainer Stanley Hough. “(Jockey) Luis (Saez) said he wasn't even sure where it happened. Best-case scenario he's going to be out of training a couple of weeks, so he'll have to miss the rest of these type of races. But I look at it as maybe a blessing in disguise because now he'll get some time off, and by summer time I think he'll really show himself and be the guy.”

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Previews of Robert B Lewis, Holy Bull, Withers Stakes' and more

As I’ve said before, I am at a sizable disadvantage with the weather. I examine the races/video on Wednesday, make my picks and do my write ups on Thursday and publish these articles on Friday morning.
The problem is I look at the weather 2 or 3 days in advance and from that point on, I’m at the mercy of Mother Nature. When I looked at the Pegasus card last Wednesday and Thursday there was a “10%” chance of rain in Hallandale Beach, Fla. last Saturday.
So what happens? The skies opened up on and off all day Saturday and changed the entire way I looked at the card. I did make several small adjustments to my card but to be fair, I will stick to what I published.
While on the subject of last week/the Pegasus card, First off I was shocked to see Si Que Es Buena go off at 7.50 to 1 in the La Prevoyante. The $17.00 winner was the highlight of my day.
New crowned Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz rode Bricks and Mortar to perfection in winning the Pegasus Turf Cup. The 26 year old made several excellent decisions during the running of that race and found himself in the winner’s circle after winning “going away” late. The filly Magic Wand ran very well for second and Yoshida failed to fire as I didn’t see any visible excuses for him.
In the Pegasus World Cup, simply put City of Light was absolutely brilliant in his swan song race. He stalked a quick early pace in the slop, took over leaving the six furlong marker and was striding out beautifully as he sprinted through the final furlong to win by almost six conclusive lengths. It’s a shame he and Accelerate boarded a van heading for Lane’s End Farm at 11:30 am last Sunday morning to begin stud duty as he seems to really be coming into his own.
Speaking of Accelerate, he was a problem loading into the gate and although he looked disinterested during the running of the race, he did very well to grab the “show dough”.
Kudos also to Seeking the Soul and his trainer Dallas Stewart, who I almost (accidentally) ran over with my car while he was eating a banana at Saratoga two years ago, who rallied from far back to get second at 34-1.
Moving forward, we will be looking at seven races this weekend, highlighted by three Kentucky Derby prep races, once in each corner of the country.
We will be looking at the Withers at Aqueduct, an eight furlong, $250,000 contest for three year olds.
We’ll then head south to Gulfstream Park for a look at the $350,000, 8 ½ furlong Holy Bull Stakes for three year olds. While there, we will also be looking at the Forward Gal Stakes, a seven furlong test for three year old fillies and its counterpart, the Swale Stakes, another seven furlong contest for males.
Lastly, we head West to Santa Anita for a look at the 8 ½ furlong, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, for three year olds. While we are there, we will also be looking at the San Pasqual for four year olds and up. This race looks to be competitive as 2018 Eclipse Award nominee McKinzie will take on 2017 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Battle of Midway amongst others.
Lastly, I broke the races down by track not by post times so please be advised they are slightly out of sequence.

Saturday Feb 2, 2019
Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 9 (4:30 PM EST Post)
Withers Stakes
Tax is bred to run to Antarctica and back non stop. After breaking his maiden and being claimed for $50,000, this son of Arch out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, valiantly chased Maximus Mischief in his wide tripped last and in the end, he was only beaten by less than three lengths at 17-1. I figure Maximus Mischief would be about 1/5 in this spot, so logically he’s my choice here. Lastly, note the eye popping 27 point Beyer Speed Figure improvement in that last race also as it coincidences with him running “first time Lasix.”……slight edge in tough race to figure……………………….Our Braintrust clearly looms a threat in this spot as well. This colt by Freud, who was purchased privately about four weeks ago, has never been worse that second through four career starts, topped off by finishing a close up second (to Mind Control) in the Jerome on this oval last time out. I love the ascending speed figures (58, 73, 77 and 86) and he’s has been working well…………………I’m sure some people will play Not That Brady on Super Bowl weekend as a hunch play. This chestnut gelding will probably tug on a few heart strings also being out of the club footed, blind in one eye and named after ownetrainer Tim Snyder’s wife who passed away from…you guessed it breast cancer…Lisa’s Booby Trap. (Lisa’s Booby Trap went on to win 10 of 18 career races in a remarkable story from about 9 or 10 years ago). Anyway, this gelding by Big Brown broke his maiden by a colossal margin two back and came back to wired a restricted Stakes field in his last. He tries open company for the first time here but his current form and speed figures suggest he’s a contender………………………Honorable Mentions: Lucky Lee buried maidens and first level allowance foes in his last two at Parx. Colt by Flatter will be making his first start in about 10 weeks but is another who has rising speed figures in each of his three starts (47, 70 and 88)….at the very least, he should be prominent early on……………………..Moretti is a $900,000, half brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Battle of Midway, who we are going to talk about a little later in this piece. The good looking son of Medaglia d’Oro finshed a very good second in his debut before winning his greenly run (swerved in mid-stretch) second start. He’ll go first time blinkers on Saturday and that should keep him more focused in this spot. Albeit this colt has some ability, I am rating him this low based on the molasses like fractions and final time of that last race………..Admire, who was screaming out for more distance in his six furlong debut, got exactly that in his second appearance as he broke his maiden when stretched out three more furlongs….outside shot here. (My play: $1 triple box using the top 5. Cost $60.00)

Gulfstream Park
Race: 9 (4:07 PM EST Post)
Forward Gal Stakes
Feedback annihilated maidens in her one and only start at Saratoga last year while getting the last furlong in a very good :06.3. Filly by Violence, who started his stud career at $15,000 but is now up to $40,000, has been off since but has been working steadily since the beginning of December. Eclipse Award winning rider takes the leg up from the Eclipse Award winning trainer….……………………Fashion Faux Pas wired maidens by almost 6 lengths at Laurel two back, then did the same while taking down a minor Stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Note, with the anticipated bad weather rolling into Florida this weekend, this filly won that Tampa race over sloppy track. Although she will be stepping up in class and stretching out in distance, she does draw towards the inside and posted a bullet half mile work last week. Both of those facts signal to me that Castellano will “send” her out of the gate once again and could prove difficult to run down late………………..Champagne Anyone came from behind to break her maiden three starts back, then after a rough trip (missed the break, altered course late) she got up to beat high level optionals two starts back. Filly by Street Sense ran very well last time out also as she finished within shouting distance of upper echelon three year old filly Restless Rider when fourth in the Grade: 2 Golden Rod Stakes. She will be the recipient of one of my more favorite angles (drops in class/cuts back in distance) and she can handle the slop……looms a threat here for sure……………………Honorable Mentions: Bye Bye J is unbeaten on the dirt including beating a minor Stakes field on this oval last time out and scoring a strong 97 Brisnet Speed Figure in the process. Still another who steps up and stretches out however…………………Frond came with a brazen, four wide rally at the quarter pole to beat maidens over a sloppy track at Tampa Bay Downs at first asking. Although her speed figure and final time were nothing spectacular, she does get a serious rider upgrade and, more importantly, goes “first time Lasix”…………..Hollywood Glory shows back to back off track, second places finishes in two Stakes races in New York in her last two races. Note in her last how it was almost a dozen lengths back to the third place finisher in that race as well. (My Play .50 Trifecta Box using the first 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 10 (4:40 PM EST Post)
Swale Stakes
Call Paul is the most accomplished horse in this race as he towers over this field in money won and back class. Handsome colt by the equally handsome Friesen Fire is 3 for 5 in his career and his two losses came to horses far better (Complexity and Vekoma) than what he’ll be facing in this spot. Irad takes the leg up from an unconscious (17-40= 43%) Jason Servis. Only two questions left, will he “need one” as this is his first start in 61 days especially after recording slow works leading into this? And will he handle the anticipated off track? Past those, he looks best…………………………Throw a blanket over the rest and pick ‘em as they are difficult to separate…..Zenden is 2 for 2 in his career with both races coming on this oval, including taking down a minor Stakes race last time out…………………High Crime blasted maidens in his first try on the dirt and on this surface. Another offspring of Violence, he recorded a strong speed figure and final time in that race as well………………….Honorable Mentions: Topper T had a busy and pretty good start to his career last year before being handed over to trainer Bill Mott. Mott then put him in way over his head in his two starts including chasing 2YO Champion Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out. Bottom line here is he drops (and cuts back in distance) into a more reasonable spot on here…………………….Country Singer, who has won his last two “on the engine” and by a combined 12 lengths, Seismic Jolt who has been beating up on lesser in restricted races and Frosted Grace, who has speed, the rail, gets one of the best speed riders in the game and cuts back in distance, all have serious early speed and could hurt each other’s chances, but all merit a look as well. (My Play: $20 win, $20 place on Call Paul. Cost $40.00)

Race: 11 (5:13 PM EST Post)
Holy Bull Stakes
Maximus Mischief has been in front at every call through all three career races while breaking his maiden by almost 9, beating first level allowance horses by 6 and then taking the Grade: 2, two turn Remsen at Aqueduct in his last. In watching the replay, I really liked the way this colt came roaring off the turn in the Remsen, showing a very fluid and powerful stride at the same time. Like several others on the card, He’ll have to answer a few more questions come Saturday. Like how will he handle the anticipated off track? And will he be ready? Remember, you want your horse peaking on the first Saturday in May, not he first Saturday in February. That said, judging by his sparkling works, topped off by a :58 flat, five furlong move last week, I would say he is ready enough for this. “He’s already been a mile and an eighth (Remsen), which I think is a pretty good advantage. It puts us a little bit ahead of the curve with the other 3-year-olds around,” trainer Robert (Butch) Reid said. “We have an opportunity to run him a mile and a sixteenth, a distance we know he can handle, and the timing was just perfect for us. “We’re looking forward to the Holy Bull. We’ll have to see what the competition looks like and go from there, but no excuses for him right now. He’s doing very well.”………………………………Mihos is clearly the biggest threat to MM here. This son of Cairo Prince, who looked like world beater winning this very race is 2014, has improved leaps and bounds through his first three races, topped off by winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on this track last time out on Jan 5. That said, it took him a very pedestrian :26.4 to get the last quarter mile in that race…That’s troubling to me………………………Garter and Tie has yet to run a bad race in his career and on this track as his 7-2-2-2 record would indicate, including winning a Stakes race two back. Obscurely bred colt finished right behind Mihos last time out as well….merits consideration here……………………….Honorable Mentions: Federal Case, a $650,000 son of Gemologist, could be “laying in the weeds” and ready to ambush his foes in this spot. He is 2 for 2 in his career and was recently handed over to Todd Pletcher….”Ignore Pletcher, leave the track on a stretcher”………………………… Harvey Wallbanger has run 8 ½ furlongs in three of his four career starts and has never finished worse than second in any of the four. That said, his final times are getting progressively slower and his speed figures have dropped ever so slightly……………………………..Gladiator King has been blown off the racetrack in his last two races, losing both by a combined 39 lengths. That said and once again with the uncertain weather in the area, note he ran far and away the best race of his life over a sloppy track. (My play- Pass, there won't be any value in this race as far as I can see)

Oaklawn Park
Race: 8 (4:38 PM EST Post)
Martha Washington Stakes
Sunset Wish has improved nicely through all five of her career starts, topped off by a conclusive win in the Take Charge Brandi Stakes at Delta Downs in her last. This daughter of Malibu Moon, owned by the powerhouse Godolphin Stable, is a logical choice here……………..Taylor’s Spirit has excellent early speed and has won 4 of her first 6 starts. Although she has won at one mile before (on the turf), I do not believe this is her best distance as she was run down by the top pick at a shorter distance last time out…………………….Marathon Queen wired maidens in her initial journey at the Fair Grounds. Chestnut daughter of Super Saver steps up and stretches out but she draws very well for her running style. Trainer Steve Asmussen reaches out to his “go to” rider Ricardo Santana Jr. which sends a message to me here……………………..…..Honorable Mentions: Although Sheza Handfull has been facing maiden claimers, she has improved greatly through all three career starts topped off by beating $50,000 MC’s last time out. This good looking daughter of Into Mischief will be making her first start in about 10 weeks but that last half mile work (:49) was better than it looks on paper…………………………….Crafty’s Dream has hit the board in eight of 11 career starts and although she might be best on synthetics, she might run well here even though her trainer is 0 for 23 in Graded Stakes races. (My Play: $1 Trifecta Box using all 5. Cost $60.00)

Santa Anita Park
Race: 6 (5:53PM EST Post)
Robert B. Lewis Stakes
If it rains like they said it will this weekend at Santa Anita, this races becomes a little more dicey as only one horse in the race has ever set hoof on a wet track. That said Mucho Gusto is one of the better three years olds that hails from the perennial powerhouse Bob Baffert barn. This $625,000 son of Mucho Macho Man wired maidens in his debut, wired the field in his second start (Grade: 2 Bob Hope Stakes) then valiantly chased absolute budding super star Improbable in the Grade: 1 Los Alamitos Futurity last time out. Don’t worry about the 56 days off as he shows an excellent work pattern. One that combines stamina building works and couple of speed honing works as well…………………………Gunmetal Gray took advantage of a fast early pace and a complete mental meltdown of the highly touted Coliseum when winning the Sham Stakes in his last. After chasing 2 YO Champion Game Winner in his two previous races, this colt by Exchange Rate was last and some seven lengths behind at one point yet blew by the field down the lane in a visually impressive effort…….should be coming late once again in this spot……………………..After beating high level maiden claimers two back, Easy Shot finished just over three lengths behind Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes last time out and improved for the third race in a row in the process. Colt from the legendary Calumet Farm looks best of the rest here…………………Honorable Mentions: You can go ahead and throw out Nolo Contesto’s debut race as he was bumped hard at the start, causing his rider to lose an iron and the distance was way too short for him. Good looking $385,000 ridgling by Pioneerof the Nile came back and won second time out when stretched out to one mile while coming home in a halfway decent :25.1 for the last quarter mile……………….Although facing lesser opponents Kid Cantina has yet to run a bad race through four career start. This $15,000 yearling purchase stretches back out to distance that should hit him right between the eyes and his figures have been steadily improving. (My play: $1 trifecta box all 5. Cost $60.00)

Race: 9 (7:23PM EST Post)
San Pasqual Stakes (7:23PM EST Post)
McKinzie could not have looked any better when rallying from way back early and zooming past his rivals in the Malibu Stakes last time out. If you draw a line through his Breeders’ Cup Classic debacle, the Malibu would be his fourth straight win and his fifth in six career starts. This colt by Street Sense is now a Graded Stakes winner at seven furlongs, a mile, a mile and a sixteenth and a mile and an eighth….that, readers, is impressive…hard to go against in this spot………………………After being deemed sterile and put back into training, Battle of Midway just missed in the San Antonio last time out and won back to back races previously. This $410,000 son of Smart Strike’s comeback is now complete as he seems to have picked up where he left off last year. Bottom line here is this bay horse, who loves this track as his 7-4-2-1 record would indicate and has been working extremely well of late, is a threat in just about any spot he runs in at these middle distances…………………………..Dabster is a $1 million, now five year old by Curlin who has run step for step with Battle of Midway in his last two races, including an absolute thriller two starts back. Figures prominent throughout…………………………..Honorable Mentions: Dalmore is 4 for 9 on this oval and 0 for 17 everywhere, so it’s safe to say you get the “Horse for the Course” angle here. The now six year old gelding appears to be in good form right now also…..could be a menace here………………….Even though he will be making his first start in three months, Giant Expectations has the ability to run well in this spot. He is already a multiple Graded Stakes winner, he has been working well of late and he has run well “off the bench” before……………………I still think Shivermetimbers is better than his 3 for 13 record would indicate and, like I mentioned about Fellowship, who came fourth at 70-1 last week, this horse is going to run a pop a big race one of these days. I just hope it’s not this Saturday. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $60.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 5-15 = 33% (My Plays: -$378.05)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N Pieces
**** At 12:05 a.m., Jan. 28 two time Champion Songbird delivered an Arrogate filly at Wayne and Cathy Sweezey’s Timber Town Farm near Lexington.
“In my life I’ve foaled thousands of mares … and she’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. She’s a very, very special mare,” Wayne Sweezey said. “Everybody anticipated this. She was already pretty special—it’s been very special to have her on the farm—but she was so professional what she did last night.”
Songbird was due to deliver her first foal Jan. 27 and went all of five minutes over that timeline.
Sweezey said it took her about a half hour to get the baby in position, then, with one person assisting, she delivered the filly. After about 15 minutes of rest, Songbird stood up and accepted the new foal.
Both are doing well.

**** Love the Chase, dam of two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome, has been booked to 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year runner up Accelerate in 2019, Tom Ryan of SF Bloodstock announced last week.
“A great looking colt that’s done it the hard way, has proven his mettle and clearly has our full attention,” Ryan said on Twitter.
Love the Chase, a 13-year-old mare by Not for Love, was purchased by SF Bloodstock for $1.95 million at the 2016 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Selected Mixed Sale in foal to Tapit.

**** When Caroline Lois captured the fourth race at Gulfstream Park Jan. 5, it gave trainer Dale Romans the 2,000th victory of his career.
Romans’ resume include winning the 2011 Preakness Stakes with Shackleford in 2011 and finished second in that race two other times. Other top performers throughout his career include Promises Fulfilled, Little Mike Tapitsfly, Dullahan, Kitten’s Joy and Keen Ice.
But perhaps Romans’ best horse was Roses in May, who registered eight wins and four seconds from 13 starts and more than $5.4 million in purses. Roses in May capped his career with a victory in the 2005 Dubai World Cup.

**** Cappucino Bay, the dam of multiple Grade 1 winner and leading sire Medaglia d’Oro, died Jan. 25 at the Montana farm of Albert and Joyce Bell. The 30-year-old mare had been battling Cushing’s Disease.
Cappucino Bay raced as a Washington homebred for the Bells, winning just five of 24 starts for earnings of $164,433.
Cappucino Bay’s greatest accomplishment, though, came as the dam of Medaglia d’Oro. The son of El Prado’s $5,754,720 in earnings were compiled with wins in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, and Donn Handicap, and the Grade: 2’s San Felipe Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes, Strub Stakes, and Oaklawn Handicap. He also finished second in two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and was also runner-up in the Belmont Stakes and Dubai World Cup.
“MDO” has sired 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, champion Songbird, and Breeders’ Cup winners Talismanic, New Money Honey, and Bar of Gold.
Cappucino Bay was also the dam of G3 winner Naples Bay and stakes-placed Expresso Bay.


**** Cowboy Diplomacy, a 3-year-old full brother to champion Monomoy Girl, will be making his racing debut next month, according to trainer Brad Cox.
Cowboy Diplomacy has had five published works this season at Oaklawn including a :59.3, five furlong bullet move from the gate last Sunday
“He’s doing good,” Cox said. “I think he’s almost ready to go, for sure. We’ll see.”
Cox, who also trains Monomoy Girl, said his champion filly was sent to Florida for a freshening following a victory in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs, but added she is scheduled to rejoin his barn at Fair Grounds barn early next week.
Cox said the $700,000 Apple Blossom Handicap April 14 at Oaklawn and $500,000 La Troienne Stakes May 3 at Churchill Downs are being considered for Monomoy Girl’s 2019, 4-year-old debut.
“We’re going to let her tells us,” Cox said.


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Trifecta Box Bet. A common way to play a Trifecta is to box three horses. A $1 box using #1,#2, and #3 would cost $6. The three horses you selected must finish in the top three spots for you to win. A four-horse $1 box would cost $24. Often a better way to play is called a Trifecta key. In this wager, you use one or more “key” horses. For example, a box trifecta with 5 selections has 60 (5 x 4 x 3) combinations. For a full $1 unit, this bet will cost $60. There are different types of trifectas, they include: normal trifecta, box trifecta, standout trifecta and roving banker trifecta. Calculating the cost of trifectas where different selections are made for each place is more Box: a box can be placed around exotic betting types such as exacta, trifecta or superfecta bets. This places a bet for all permutations of the numbers in the box. An exacta box with two numbers, commonly called quinella or quiniela, is a bet on either of two permutations: A first and B second, or B first and A second. A trifecta box on three selections costs $12 instead of $2 for the straight trifecta. A trifecta box can cover more than three horses. This increases the number of possible combinations, and the costs increase accordingly. Trifecta box is one of the most popular horse race betting options for a good reason: It offers the best cost/payout ratio.. In other words, trifecta in horse racing is good both for beginners and veterans. Instead of forcing you to make fixed selections like Exacta and Superfecta, trifecta box bets give you a certain freedom and flexibility on your predictions.

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