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Why “it’s not a loss until you sell” is 2020’s YOLO.
A lot of traders like to make fun of this mentality. They say “set your stop losses tight, get out if it goes against you two ticks and move on.” This is a glue-guzzling retarded thing to say and I’m about to tell you why. Before you say “Oh they’re professional traders, they know what they’re talking about,” do me a favor and shut the fuck up. This is the market that’s on it’s way to ATH. These traders don’t know jack shit. We’ve seen companies do the exact opposite of what they should do. STNG came out and made earnings their bitch and lost 10% in one day because the algos saw a downward dog trendline and a negative 50SMA. HOG came out and said they have no customers, no money, and no idea when they’ll make money again and they popped 20%. If you start with an account of $1000 and make a stupid play, you might lose 80%. Say you invested in literally anything on march 23rd. However, if you decided to be retarded like Warren Buffett and sell at rock bottom, you would have a portfolio that’s worth 20% of what you started with. Why not sell and move into a different play? Because for you to take that $200 back to $1000, you would need 500% gains in a comparable amount of time as it would take for your original security to recover. “There’s no chance that the original security will recover fully!” Fucking wrong. Unless it’s Luckin Coffee or some other radioactive dogshit, we’ve seen time and again that stocks are only gonna go straight fuckin up for the next infinity years. Long after humans are gone algos are gonna be trading the last securities back and forth with digital money. “This is WSB, options or ban.” Someone rack this faggot. I’ve been on WSB for years and shares have always been part of the play. Especially right now, with IV insanely high, option premiums are through the roof and nothing is moving the way you expect it to. Buy shares in something with a low RSI, wait till it pops, and sell that shit. If it goes down, pretend its fucking bitcoin and hold it. If you wanna bitch and moan about only making 30% on a play, go to your all-time record on Robinhood and remind yourself that you’re down 94% all time and you would suck a bleeding hobo dick for 10% gains. Take your favorite lipstick and write “YOU ARE NOT FUCKING SMART ENOUGH FOR A TEN BAGGER” on your mirror until you learn to walk away from the table with 15% in a week. TL;DR buy shares, hold them till they go up, sell them, repeat. If they don’t go up, don’t fucking sell them, and maybe your kids will sell for a gain. Positions: STNG, DHT, GLOG, UIS, INFY, MPLX.
Money is a lot more complex than authors realize (40k, Metro, WoW, D&D, IRL)
One of the “easier” ways to create a unique world is to choose a different form of currency. It’s something people notice, since money is ubiquitous. The issue is that money is fairly well developed. It needs to have certain features, or else it flat out doesn’t work. Examples In Warhammer 40k, orks use their own teeth as currency. Since every ork has access to teeth, there isn't absolute poverty. Since the teeth decay, hoarding teeth isn't feasible, and it means that orks need to constantly try to expand to get more teeth. Since every ork gives teeth in a tax to their boss, it means that war bands constantly expand and fight, giving the combat happy bastards yet another reason to go to war. A huge amount of fantasy universes use copper, silver, and gold as currencies. Metro uses ammo. In real life, we see many alternative, and ineffective, currencies, ranging from company script, to cryptocurrency, to hyperinflationary national fiat currency, to precious metal based money. Background The issue is that all of these are fundamentally flawed in some way as a currency, rendering the economy of that location extremely vulnerable to various shocks that would rightfully upend the entire economy. A currency fills three major roles 1. A medium of exchange. 2. A store of value. 3. A unit of account. A medium of exchange means that it is accepted by enough people as having value to be used for trade. Rather than needing to find someone who wants your goods to trade in a chain for something you want (like in every Zelda trading questline), you just give them money and they give you the item. This is why money is more efficient pure barter. It acts to lubricate transactions between peoples. A store of value means that you won't see all your wealth disappear if you don't spend it now. Which means that you can save up for major purchases, you can make deals that last for years (like mortgages), and people can actually retire on what they’ve earned over the course of their life. A unit of account means that you know the value of the money and it is standardized. Imagine if the only form of money was in fine art. You could exchange a Van Gogh for a house, and a large spiky suspended ball for a car. Art could fit as a medium of exchange and a store of value, but actually trying to compare artwork to artwork would drive people insane quickly. You'd be in the situation that a dollar isn't worth a dollar, or one Van Gogh isn't worth another Van Gogh. There is no way to convert between lesser and more valuable pieces in a logical manner. Now, why is that relevant? Because a huge amount of monetary systems in fiction fail these requirements and allow for overt exploitation or unduly hamper the government's ability to respond to threats. Problems With regards to the ork teeth, what is functionally happening is constant hyperinflation. Since the teeth decay, there is explicitly no store of value. Which means that the only orks who can afford the best and most fun toys are the warbosses and WAAGH! leaders. There are probably billions of orks who just want to save up for a spaceship or motorcycle or set up a Squig farm of their own, but will never be able to because their money falls apart before their eyes. Somewhat more seriously, for a race dedicated to war, constantly decaying teeth means that the number of war bands that can attack space based shipping or otherwise need more complex and expensive equipment is limited, reducing the race's overall effectiveness in combat. By attempting to be clever with inflation, by making it so that it couldn't happen, they created the effects of hyperinflation. And, since it is still a money based system, that means that a race designed to go to war can't do it as effectively as they should. In WoW or D&D or any of a dozen universes where wealth is metal based, using multiple metals as various values of currency would have a similarly debilitating problem. It destroys the unit of account. Basically, the government sets an exchange rate between the chunks of metal, making gold 10x as expensive as silver which is 10x as expensive as copper. But the rarity and expense of gold isn't 100x as much as copper. It is usually much much more. So, it makes counterfeiting extremely attractive, since you can produce 100 small value coins, of the actual metal, and exchange them for a coin of much higher value. Or if it is in the other direction, where you can exchange something where the face value is less than the value of the metal, all the government is doing is funding a small extremely active and profitable metal reclamation industry. This would be an ongoing and unavoidable issue, one that could cripple a government attempting to keep enough money in circulation, or cripple business if the government failed to intervene in an ongoing manner. Metro has the same issue of lacking a unit of account. The value of a bullet depends on what you're facing and what weapons you have. Even if the nominal value of a .50 cal armor piercing round is high, the number of people who can use it is very low. Consequently, you'll see the value change and possibly invert, as use brings more common rounds out of circulation and makes the more expensive rounds increasingly obviously useless. Without a set value across the board, or something interchangeable and universal, the currency itself will always be in flux, making for a really really shitty form of money. And a fairly cursory read of human history reveals why being inventive with money is a bad idea. Company script is money that doesn't function as a medium of exchange. It acts to tie people to a small location and punishes merchants, intentionally gimping economic power of consumers. Bitcoin, aside from arguably not working as a medium of exchange, fails as a store of value. It is inconsistent and disconnected from reality, making any long term contract in it unfeasible. It has many of the same problems as hyperinflation, except you don't know which direction the value will go. Less common now, but currencies that are based on the weight of an amount of precious metal suffered from failing as a unit of account. As gold coins were chipped, sweated, plugged, adulterated, or otherwise debased, the value of the coin and the face value became disconnected, and a buyer was dependent on merchants being trustworthy with their scales. Functionally, money is the way it is because it works fairly well, and the obvious alternatives tend to fail in overt ways. Attempting to be clever with monetary solutions isn't really feasible most of the time. Solutions So, are there any currencies that actually make some degree of sense in world, and aren't just "GOLD FOR ALL"? Surprisingly, yes. Fallout's bottle caps have surprisingly good arguments around why they are used beyond the water traders of the Hub. Basically, becoming a medium of exchange is more based on mutual consent than it is on logic.. Shells, pieces of wood, large rocks, feathers, and shiny metals have all been used. Ragnar Benson, of the survivalist fame, claims to have found isolated African tribes that were using Austro-Hungarian bills in the 70s. Unless there's a government that forces something, pretty much anything can and will be used. By selecting it as a currency, the water traders turned bottle caps into a representative currency, each cap was a certain amount of pure water. They gave it some base level of value that was universally accepted. Outside the Hub, people were willing to trade for them since they had value, prompting other people to accept them on since they could be used in trade, gradually shifting it to something like fiat, abet unbacked by a government. Fallout has a surprising amount of trade across the US, where jet reached the East Coast and the Wasteland Survival Guide reached the West in a couple decades. Over 100 years, it's completely reasonable for bottle caps to become an accepted medium of exchange, valued because people value them. With regards to unit of account, bottle cap or not is pretty effective. And, since it doesn't have higher denominations, which could introduce the potential for arbitrage, it works. Abet annoying to count out hundreds or thousands of caps of you had to do it manually. For a store of value, after 100 years as an accepted currency, most large stashes would have been found, and the only input would be through Nuka cola, which is more valuable as soda than caps. And, as described in game, without a press and marking machine, counterfeiting is difficult; labor intensive and involved. There really isn't much way for more caps to come in, which preserves its value. The greatest issue with bottle caps is long term deflation as the population expands, but, while the wasteland continues, population growth will be muted. Consequently, caps in the Fallout universe ought to provide a stable bedrock for longer term business and functioning governance. Assuming that the world’s inability to actually rebuild despite that being the story for hundreds of years gets resolved. So what? So, what makes a good fictional currency? Well, that’s mostly fulfilling the functions of a currency.
Medium of Exchange – that can be nearly anything, as long as it is universally accepted. Attempting to create a new currency for each trader, like some sort of munted script, would be horrible and useless.
Store of Value – The currency should not be easy to counterfeit, which implies 2 things. Either that it is nearly worthless on its’ own (like paper currency) or that the value is derived from a hard to fake commodity, like gold. At the same time, making this needs to be difficult, or else you have the issue of the Elder Scrolls with Transmutation and turning iron into gold, which is also the foundation of their currency. Hyperinflation means broken economies.
Unit of Account – If you’re going to have more than one currency, you need to directly tie them together. More money should be based on the same features as the Store of Value, either just a bigger number on the front, or a larger chunk of hard to adulterate or change money.
And, if you think you’ve solved a major problem, you really really should talk to an economist before designing your world around a special feature.
More Wall Street Breakfast Podcasts » "Despite several issues of importance - national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic - the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. The sentiment led S&P 500 futures to tack on another 0.6% gain overnight as Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed renewed "optimism" about a coronavirus vaccine. On the economic calendar, the ADP Employment Report today will give a fresh read on the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil climbed 2% on anticipated output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Come on and Zoom! A surge in video conferencing usage saw revenue growth at Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) jump 169% to $328.2M as the company reported top and bottom line beats for Q1. Zoom also doubled its revenue guidance for the year, pushing up shares as much as 4.5% in AH trading on Tuesday. In keeping with its previous practices, the firm didn't disclose active user numbers, though analysts at Bernstein estimate Zoom's mobile app had 173M monthly active users as of May 27, up from 14M on March 4. Zuckerberg stands firm after walkout Facing internal unrest over the company's gentle approach to moderating posts from President Trump, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees he stood behind his decision, one he called "tough" but "pretty thorough." Policies will be reviewed to see if they need to change for the future. Facebook employees particularly took issue with a post by Trump that threatened violence, including the words "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Similar posts on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) were flagged for violating policy. Apple is tracking looted iPhones Thieves who made off with iPhones from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail locations in New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Washington and Philadelphia quickly learned that they were loaded with special security software. On-screen messages displayed: "This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted." The social unrest sweeping across the nation comes just as Apple is in the process of opening more than 100 stores following an extended closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. Digital taxes The Trump administration is opening a "Section 301" investigation into taxes on digital commerce - proposed by a range of trading partners - that could affect revenues booked by tech giants like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The move could ultimately lead to punitive tariffs and heighten the chances of another global trade dispute. France already agreed to postpone its new digital tax until at least the end of 2020 after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports like French wine, cheese, handbags and porcelain. Will negative rates be needed? Many have doubted that the U.S. could go negative like Japan and parts of Europe, but St. Louis Fed economist Yi Wen says that's what it would take to achieve a V-shaped economic recovery. "I found that a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary. Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure." Wen cited historical examples like President Roosevelt's aggressive fiscal stimulus package during the 1930s and huge surge in government spending once World War II began. Britain news roundup The Shanghai-London Connect program, years in the making, has so far produced only one listing - Huatai Securities (OTCPK:HUATF) - which raised $1.5B last June. China's market regulator has now approved a fresh listing for China Pacific Insurance (OTCPK:CHPXY), signaling a revival of the program. While the ties could bring the nations closer, other news overnight may go in the other direction. Boris Johnson pledged to let into the country nearly 3M Hong Kong citizens - who are British overseas passport holders - due to China's new national security law, and place them on a possible path to U.K. citizenship. Drug shortages One of the most widely prescribed antidepressant medications in the U.S. has fallen into short supply, according to a new list from the FDA. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) said some versions of its name-brand Zoloft, such as 100 milligram tablets in 100-count bottles, were scarce because of higher demand during COVID-19, while generics faced shortages of certain ingredients. Zoloft prescriptions climbed 12% Y/Y to 4.9M in March, the most ever in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but receded to 4.5M in April. M&A activity French luxury goods group LVMH’s (OTCPK:LVMHF) $16.2B takeover of Tiffany & Co (NYSE:TIF) is looking less certain, according to Women's Wear Daily. It's the latest big merger said to be on the rocks amid a deteriorating situation in the U.S. market brought on by a COVID-19 pandemic and severe social unrest. Further challenges include spending pattern shifts, the collapse of international tourism and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. 'Biggest Sale in the Sky' After postponing its annual Prime Day event due to COVID-19, Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly setting up a "summer sale" for June to boost sellers hurt by the outbreak and swimming in inventory. The company told brands it would launch a fashion sale June 22, to run anywhere from 7-10 days, and that participation in the event was "invitation only." It's building landing pages with a working title "Biggest Sale in the Sky," and has asked brands to meet an end-of-Wednesday deadline to submit deals with a discount of at least 30%. What else is happening... Sports betting to the rescue in California? Twitter (TWTR) names Pichette as new independent chairman. Google (GOOG, GOOGL) faces $5B lawsuit over 'private' internet use. FAA boss to testify at Senate hearing on 737 MAX (NYSE:BA). Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) trims loss forecast after May rides jumped 26%. Tuesday's Key Earnings Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) -3.7% AH on light revenue guidance. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) +6.2% AH following a beat-and-raise. DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +3.7% as e-commerce sales rose 110%. Zoom Video (ZM) +1.4% AH posting Q1 beat, aggressive outlook. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.1%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +2.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.7% to $37.43. Gold -0.6% to $1724.40. Bitcoin -5.6% to $9527. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.71% Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Factory Orders
Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin
Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin The Grayscale Investments cryptocurrency investment fund acquired every third bitcoin mined in the last 100 days. And in April, the fund bought 50% of all ETH mined. At the same time, despite the financial crisis and the fall of the cryptocurrency market in March, shares of Grayscale crypto funds in the first quarter of 2020 attracted record investments, which indicates a growing interest of institutional investors in the crypto industry. Why does the company need so many coins, what is its current position regarding the crypto market and what role does it play on it?
Aggressive Grayscale crypto purchases have recently been spotted with respect to ether. So, by April 24, the company had bought about 756 539 ETNs (accurate data are not publicly available) for its Ethereum Trust fund. This is about 48.4% of all 1.5 million coins mined since the beginning of this year. As a result, the company already owns 1% of all coins in circulation and only increases the pace of purchases. The first user to notice this was Reddit under the nickname u/nootropicat. According to the latest quarterly report by Grayscale, the flow of investments in ETN reached a record level for the first three months of 2020 — $110 million. This is a very sharp increase, given that total investments in ETN for the previous two years amounted to $95.8 million. The total demand for the Ethereum fund grew over the quarter is almost 2.5 times compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. From the beginning of the year until the end of April, the company issued 5.23 million shares of the fund at 0.09427052 ETN apiece. At the same time, shares are traded with a premium of 420% relative to the current price of the coin — $92 against $17.70. That is, investors are willing to pay extra pretty much not to deal with cryptocurrency on their own. Most likely, the increase in the rate of purchase of the coin is associated with the upcoming upgrade of the network to the state of Ethereum 2.0. It can take place at the end of July, but, most likely, it will happen not earlier than the end of the year. After the upgrade, the network will become more scalable and there will be the possibility of staking — validators will be able to receive passive income for providing their funds to confirm the blocks. The crypto market, by the way, is also preparing for the transition of the ecosystem to a new stage. ETH has grown 55% since the crash in March, from $110 to $202 on the day of publication. At the end of April, CoinDesk drew attention to the increase in the number of long positions in ETH futures — this indicates expectations for further growth of the coin.
Last quarter — the most successful in the history of the company
In May, Grayscale released a report on the results of the first quarter of this year. “Despite the decline in risky assets this quarter, Grayscale’s assets continue to approach record highs, as does our share of the digital asset market,” the document says. And this despite the coronavirus pandemic, the global recession and the traditional cryptocurrency market volatility. A record $503.7 million investment was raised in the first quarter. This is almost twice the previous quarterly maximum of $254 million in the third quarter of last year and accounts for 83% of the total capital of $1.07 billion raised for the entire 2019. New investors accounted for $160 million of raised funds. The main products of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust raised $388.9 million and $110 million, respectively. It is noteworthy that the company reduced the premium on stocks of funds relative to the price of assets. 88% of investments came from institutional investors, among which hedge funds prevail; 5% — from accredited individuals, 4% — from pension accounts (yes, pension funds are extremely conservative in nature, but also invest in bitcoin against the background of a decrease in the profitability of other assets); 3% came from family offices, and 38% of customers invested in several products at once. It is noteworthy that two years ago the share of institutional investors was about 50% — it is obvious that they no longer consider bitcoin as something criminal. “Many of our investors see digital assets as medium and long-term investment opportunities and the main component of their investment portfolios. Quarterly inflows doubled to $ 503.7 million, demonstrating that demand is reaching new peak levels even in conditions of “risk reduction”, the document says. Today, more than 46.5% of the inflow of funds was attracted from multi-strategic investors. Crypto investors accounted for only 11.2% of the inflow, according to the report. Grayscale currently operates ten cryptocurrency investment products targeted at institutional investors. They cover PTS, ETN, ETS, BCH, ZEC, XRP, LTC, ZEN, XLM. The value of the assets under his management is more than $3.8 billion. GBTC is the most demanded product, most investors invest in it and it takes about 1.7% of the total volume of circulating bitcoins. Aggregate quarterly flow of funds to different Grayscale products. Pay attention to the growing share of investors diversifying portfolios with products tied to altcoins. Since January of this year, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to it, the company provides quarterly and annual reports in the form of 10-K. The status makes it possible to sell shares of a trust in the secondary market after 6 months, rather than 12, as before, and also increases the confidence of conservative investors. Other products comply with OTCQX reporting standards in the OTC market and are approved by the US Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FINRA) for public offering. Amount of assets managed by Grayscale as of May 20, 2020. It is noteworthy that the news about the success of Grayscale comes amid news of how panicky investors in traditional assets are fleeing from market turmoil. So, the largest fund managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors — lost several trillion in capitalization of their assets, and BlackRock in the first quarter for the first time in five years saw a net outflow of funds from its long-term investment products.
Bitcoin is the best asset for hedging portfolios in crisis
At the end of April, Grayscale also released a separate report on the analysis of the impact of regulators during a pandemic and the crisis caused by it and how it affected the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market as a whole. The document said fiat currencies are at risk of devaluation as central banks print more and more money. Even the US dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency, risks being devalued if the US Federal Reserve continues to print the currency in trillions. A decrease in interest rates to zero and negative values deprives government bonds of the status of “safe haven” during the crisis. Therefore, investors are trying to diversify their portfolios with alternative instruments. Cryptocurrencies are the best choice for this, according to the authors of the report. The text emphasizes the historical significance of gold as a global standard, but it is noted that in the modern digital world it is becoming increasingly burdensome for investors — it has complex logistics. Bitcoin seems resistant to the problems that other assets face. Therefore, in times of economic uncertainty, the first cryptocurrency is one of the best assets that investors can use to hedge their portfolios. The coin performs better than any other asset, including fiat currencies, government bonds, and traditional commodities like gold. The authors of the report emphasize that Bitcoin has already begun to show signs of becoming a protective asset. At the same time, the company believes that bitcoin is an excellent asset not only in times of crisis. So, in December 2019, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments Michael Sonnenshine said that the company expects an influx of investments in bitcoin after the transfer of $68 trillion of savings between generations in the next 25 years. Today, this capital is invested in traditional assets, but a significant part of these wealth millennials will invest in cryptocurrencies. Already, according to him, investments in GBTC are among the five most popular among young people, ahead of, for example, investments in Microsoft and Netflix.
The unprecedented financial measures taken by the US Federal Reserve, as well as the worsening recession, are forcing even the most conservative investors to rethink their current strategies and portfolio composition. Many of them are increasingly beginning to appreciate the fixed emission and non-correlation of Bitcoin — it is becoming a tool for risk diversification. Growing institutional interest is driving the acceleration of coin prices. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Bull Bitcoin’s Dollar-Cost Averaging tool for Canadians: a detailed overview
Hello fellow Canadian Bitcoiners! I'm Francis Pouliot, CEO and founder of Bull Bitcoin (previously known as Bitcoin Outlet) and Bylls. I haven't been active on Reddit for a while but I thought I'd pop back here to let the community know about our new dollar-cost averaging feature, "Recurring Buy" This post is a copy of my most recent medium article which you can read here if you want to see the screenshots. https://medium.com/bull-bitcoin/bull-bitcoins-dollar-cost-averaging-tool-for-canadians-the-right-time-to-buy-bitcoin-is-every-day-82a992ca22c1 Thanks in advance for any feedback and suggestions! [Post starts here] The Bull Bitcoin team is constantly trying to reduce the frictions ordinary people face when investing in Bitcoin and propose innovative features which ensure our users follow Bitcoin best practices and minimize their risks. We are particularly excited and proud about our latest feature: an automated Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging tool which we dubbed “Recurring Buy”. The Recurring Buy feature lets Bull Bitcoin users create an automated schedule that will buy Bitcoin every day using the funds in their account balance and send the Bitcoin directly to their Bitcoin wallet straight away. We put a lot of thought in the implementation details and striking the right trade-offs for a simple and elegant solution. Our hope is that it will become a standard other Bitcoin exchanges will emulate for the benefit of their users. This standard will certainly evolve over time as we accumulate feedback and operational experience. In this article, I cover: The problem that we are trying to solve Recurring Buy feature details, processes and instructions The rationale (and tradeoffs) behind the main feature design choices Bull Bitcoin is only available to Canadians, but non-Canadians that wish to have a look at how it works are welcome to make a Bull Bitcoin account and check out how it works here. You will be able to go through the process of create the schedule for testing purposes, but you wont be able to fund your account and actually purchase Bitcoin. What problems does Dollar-Cost Averaging solve? The most common concern of Bitcoin investors is, not surprisingly, “when is the right time to buy Bitcoin?”. Bitcoin is indeed a very volatile asset. A quick glance at a Bitcoin price chart shows there are without a doubt “worse times” and “better times” to invest in Bitcoin. But is that the same as the “right” time? Gurus, analysts and journalists continuously offer their theories explaining what affects the Bitcoin price, supported by fancy trading charts and geopolitical analysis, further reinforcing the false notion that it is possible to predict the price of Bitcoin. Newbies are constantly bombarded with mainstream media headlines of spectacular gains and devastating losses. For some, this grows into an irresistible temptation to get rich quick. Others become crippled with the fear of becoming “the sucker” on which early adopters dump their bags. Veterans are haunted by past Bitcoin purchases which were quickly followed by a crash in the price. “I should have waited to buy the dip…” Many Bitcoin veterans and long-term investors often shrug off the question of when is the right time to buy with the philosophy: “just hodl”. But even those holding until their death will recognize that buying more Bitcoin for the same price is a better outcome. Given the very high daily volatility of Bitcoin, a hodler can find himself in many years having significantly less wealth just because he once bought Bitcoin on a Monday instead of a Wednesday. His options are either to leave it up to chance or make an attempt to “time the market” and “buy the dip”, which can turn into a stressful trading obsession, irrational decisions (which have a negative impact on budget, income and expenses) and severe psychological trauma. In addition, trying to “buy the dip” is often synonymous to keeping large amounts of fiat on an exchange to be ready for “when the time comes”. There must be a better way. Bitcoin investors should be rewarded for having understood Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition early on, for having taken the risk to invest accordingly and for having followed best practices. Not for being lucky. Overview of features and rules In this section I go into every detail of the Recurring Buy feature. In the following section, I focus on explaining why we chose this particular user experience. The user first decides his target investment amount. Ideally, this is a monthly budget or yearly budget he allocates to investing in Bitcoin based on his projected income and expenses. The user then chooses either the duration of the Recurring Buy schedule or the daily purchase amount. The longer the better. The frequency is each day and cannot be modified. The user must submit a Bitcoin address before activating a Recurring Buy schedule. By default, every transaction will be sent to that Bitcoin address. It’s the fallback address in case they don’t provide multiple addresses later. Once the user has filled the form with target amount, the duration and the Bitcoin address, he can activate the Recurring Buy Schedule. The user is not required to already have funds in his account balance to activate the schedule. We will randomly select a time of day at which his transaction will be processed (every hour, so 24 possible times). If the user insists on another time of day, he can cancel his Recurring Buy schedule and try again. ￼ ￼ The Recurring Buy feature as displayed on bullbitcoin.com/recurring-buys The schedule is then displayed to the user, showing the time and date at which transactions that will take place in the future. The user will be able to see how long his current balance will last. He can follow the progress of the dollar-cost averaging schedule, monitor in real time his average acquisition cost, and audit each transaction individually. At this point, the user can and should change the Bitcoin address of his next transactions to avoid address re-use. Address re-use is not forbidden, but it is highly discouraged. After having modified the Bitcoin addresses, there is nothing left for the user to do except watch the bitcoins appear in his Bitcoin wallet every day! The Bitcoins are sent right away at the time of purchase. Bitcoin transactions using the Recurring Buy feature will have the lowest possible Bitcoin network transaction fee to avoid creating upwards pressure on the fee market impact other network users. ￼ ￼ What users see after first activating a schedule The Recurring Buy schedule will be cancelled automatically at the time of the next purchase if the balance is insufficient. He can add more funds to his balance whenever he wants. The Recurring Buy schedule will continue until the target amount is reached or until the account balance runs out. The user can cancel his Recurring Buy schedule whenever he wants. If the user wants to change the amount or duration of the schedule, he can simply cancel his current schedule and create a new one. Each schedule has a unique identifier so that users can keep track of various schedules they perform over time. Once a schedule is completed, either fully or partially, a summary will be provided which shows the number of transactions completed, the average acquisition cost, the total amount of Bitcoin purchase and the total amount of fiat spent. Useful for accounting! ￼ ￼ A partially completed Recurring Buy schedule cancelled after 9 days due to insufficient funds Though process in making our design choices Recurring Bitcoin Purchases vs. Recurring Payment/Funding The first and most important design choice was to separate the processes of funding the account balance with fiat (the payment) from the process of buying Bitcoin (the purchase). Users do not need to make a bank transaction every time they do a Bitcoin purchase. They first fund their account manually on their own terms, and the recurring purchases are debited from their pre-funded account balance. Another approach would have been to automatically withdraw fiat from the user’s bank account (e.g. a direct debit or subscription billing) for each transaction (like our friends at Amber) or to instruct the user to set-up recurring payments to Bull Bitcoin from their bank account (like our friends at Bittr). The downside of these strategies is that they require numerous bank transactions which increases transaction fees and the likelihood of triggering fraud and compliance flags at the user’s bank. However, this does remove the user’s need to keep larger amounts of fiat on the exchange and reduces the friction of having to make manual bank payments. Bull Bitcoin is currently working on a separate “Recurring Funding” feature that will automatically debit fiat from the user’s bank accounts using a separate recurring schedule with a minimum frequency of once a week, with a target of once every two weeks or once a month to match the user’s income frequency. This can, and will, be used in combination from the “Recurring Buy” feature, but both can be used separately. The ultimate experience that we wish to achieve is that users will automatically set aside, each paycheck (two weeks), a small budget to invest in Bitcoin using the “Recurring Funding” feature which is sufficient to refill their account balance for the next two weeks of daily recurring purchases. Frequency of transactions The second important decision was about customizing the frequency of the schedule. We decided to make it “each day” only. This is specifically to ensure users have a large enough sample size and remain consistent which are the two key components to a successful dollar-cost averaging strategy. A higher amount of recurring transactions (larger sample size) will result in the user’s average acquisition being closer to the actual average Bitcoin price over that period of time. Weekly or monthly recurring purchases can provide the same effectiveness if they are performed over a duration of time which is 7x longer (weekly) or 30x longer (monthly). It is our belief that the longer the duration of the schedule, the more likely the user is to cancel the recurring buy schedule in order to “buy the dip”. Dollar-cost averaging is boring, and watching sats appear in the wallet every day is a good way to reduce the temptation of breaking the consistency. We do not force this on users: they can still cancel the schedule if they want and go all-in. We consider it more of a gentle nudge in the right direction. Frequency of withdrawals (one purchase = one bitcoin transaction) This is one of the most interesting design choices because it is a trade-off between scalability (costs), privacy and custody. Ultimately, we decided that trust-minimization (no custody) and privacy were the most important at the expense of long-term scalability and costs. Realistically, Bitcoin network fees are currently low and we expect them to remain low for the near future, although they will certainly increase massively over the long-term. One of the ways we mitigated this problem was to select the smallest possible transaction fee for transactions done in the context of Recurring Buy, separate from regular transaction fees on regular Bitcoin purchases (which, at Bull Bitcoin, are very generous). Note: users must merge their UTXOs periodically to avoid being stuck with a large amount of small UTXOs in the future when fees become more expensive. This is what makes me most uncomfortable about our solution. I hope to also solve this problem, but it is ultimately something Bitcoin wallets need to address as well. Perhaps an automated tool in Bitcoin wallets which merges UTXOs periodically when the fees are low? Food for thought. When transaction fees and scalability becomes a problem for us, it will have become a problem for all other small payments on the Bitcoin network, and we will use whatever solution is most appropriate at that time. It is possible that Lightning Network ends up being the scalability solution, although currently it is logistically very difficult to perform automated payouts to users using Lightning, particularly recurring payouts, which require users to create Bolt11 invoices and to convince other peers in the network to open channels and fund channels with them for inbound capacity. These are the general trade-offs: Send a Bitcoin transaction for every purchase (what we do) - Most expensive for the exchange - Most expensive for the user (many UTXOs) - Increases Bitcoin Network UTXOs set - Inefficient usage of block space - Most private - Zero custody risk Keep custody of the Bitcoin until the schedule is over or when the user requests a withdrawal (what Coinbase does) - No additional costs -No blockchain bloating - Same level of privacy - High custody risk Batch user transactions together at fixed intervals (e.g. every day) - Slightly lower transaction costs for the exchange - Same costs for the user - Slightly more efficient use of block space - Same level of UTXO set bloating - Much lower level of privacy - Slightly higher custody risk Single address vs multiple addresses vs HD keys (xpubs) The final decision we had to make was preventing address re-use and allowing users to provide an HD key (xpub) rather than a Bitcoin address. Address re-use generally decreases privacy because it becomes possible for third-party blockchain snoops to figure out that multiple Bitcoin transactions are going to the same user. But we must also consider that even transactions are sent to multiple addresses, particularly if they are small amounts, it is highly likely that the user will “merge” the coins into a single transaction when spending from his wallet. It is always possible for users to prevent this using Coinjoin, in which there is a large privacy gain in not re-using addresses compared to using a single address. It is important to note that this does not decrease privacy compared to regular Bitcoin purchases on Bull Bitcoin outside of “Recurring Buy”. Whether a user has one transaction of $1000 going to a Bitcoin address or 10x$100 going that same Bitcoin address doesn’t reveal any new information about the user other than the fact he is likely using a dollar-cost averaging mechanism. It is rather a missed opportunity to gain more privacy. Another smaller decision was whether or not we should ask the user to provide all his addresses upfront before being able to activate the schedule, which would completely remove the possibility of address re-use. We ultimately decided that because this process can take a very long time (imagine doing Recurring Buy every day for 365 days) it is better to let the user do this at his own pace, particularly because he may eventually change his Bitcoin wallet and forget to change the addresses in the schedule. There are also various legitimate use-cases where users have no choice but to re-use the same address . A discussion for another day! Asking the user to provide an XPUB is a great solution to address re-use. The exchange must dynamically derive a new Bitcoin address for the user at each transaction, which is not really a technical challenge. As far as I can tell, Bittr is the only Bitcoin exchange exchange which has implemented this technique. Kudos! It is however important that the user doesn’t reuse this XPUB for anything else, otherwise the exchange can track his entire wallet balance and transaction history. It is worth noting that not all wallets support HD keys or have HD keys by default (e.g. Bitcoin Core). So it is imperative that we offer the option to give Bitcoin addresses. We believe there is a lot of potential to create wallet coordination mechanisms between senders and recipients which would make this process a lot more streamlined. In the future, we will certainly allow users to submit an XPUB instead of having to manually input a different address. But for now, we wanted to reduce the complexity to a minimum. Conclusion: personal thoughts I have a somewhat unique perspective on Bitcoin users due to the fact that I worked at the Bitcoin Embassy for almost 4 years. During this time, I had the opportunity to discuss face-to-face with thousands of Bitcoin investors. One of my favourite anecdotes is a nocoiner showing up at our office in December 2013 with a bag full of cash attempting to buy Bitcoin, “I know how to read a chart”, furious after being turned away. Many people who went “all-in” for short-term gains (usually altcoins) would show up to the Bitcoin Embassy office months later with heart-breaking stories. This isn’t what I signed up for. My goal is to help people opt-out of fiat and, ultimately, to destroy the fiat currency system entirely. This instilled in me a deep-rooted concern for gambling addiction and strong aversion to “trading”. I do not believe that Bitcoin exchanges should blindly follow “what the market dictates”. More often than not, what dictates the market is bad habits users formed because of the other Bitcoin services they used in the past, what other people are used to, and what feels familiar. Running a Bitcoin company should be inseparable from educating users on the best practices, and embedding these best practices into the user experience is the best way for them to learn. Another important anecdote which motivated me to build a dollar-cost averaging tool is a person very close to me that had made the decision to buy Bitcoin, but was so stressed out about when was the right time to buy that they ended up not buying Bitcoin for a whole 6 months after funding their Bull Bitcoin account. That person eventually gave up and ultimately invested a large amount all at once. In hindsight, it turned out to be one of the worst possible times to invest in Bitcoin during that year. Investing in Bitcoin can, and should be, a positive and rewarding experience. Buying Bitcoin every day is the right strategy, but it is not necessarily lead to the best outcome. The reality is that the best time to buy Bitcoin is at when market hits rock bottom (obviously). Sometimes, the upside from buying the dip can be much bigger than the risk (e.g. when the price dropped below $200 in 2015). But these are exceptions rather than the rule. And the cost of chasing dips is very high: stress, investing time and mental energy, and the very real psychological trauma which results from making bad trading decisions. Ultimately, it’s better to do the right thing than being lucky, but it’s not always a bad idea to cheat on your dollar-cost averaging from time to time if you can live with the costs and consequences. Yours truly, Francis
The Rock Trading does not disappoint in this regard, with support for popular options like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripples, ZCash and Peercoin. There are also concrete plans to increase this support to various other popular altcoins, which can be a great news for enthusiasts on the platform in the future. The company operating the Rock Trading brand and website is based in Malta, with branch offices in Italy. It started out back in 2007 as a Virtual Insurance Company, and 4 years later it launched Bitcoin trading. In July, 2013 it was registered in Malta as a certified Limited Liability Company. This registration, of course, does not mean that the exchange fall s under any specific financial Now you can buy bitcoin (or other cryptos) with your credit card on The Rock Trading 5 August 2019 9 December 2019 We are thrilled to announce the addition of Skrill to our platform: Skrill is a fast and secure way to transfer money across the internet, without geographical limits and an IBAN. Bitcoin Scammers Are Using This App To Fleece People. Messaging app Telegram started out as a WhatsApp alternative, but it's fast becoming a petri dish for cryptocurrency get-rich-quick schemes, propped up by dubious trading bots and bogus celebrity endorsements from Christopher Walken and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Get Special Trading Zone Service for Local business.. Buy-Sell Intraday trade... Without Analysis 100% profit... Our Profit Calculate Zone, Small Business & Trading Strategy..
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