A guide to betting exactas in horse racing - All-Bets
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What are some different wagering strategies employed by handicappers frequenting horseracing? Topics tend to focus on handicapping and not the strategy of wagering. Personally, I typically try to place win bets with an eye towards value. Sometimes I’ll try saver exactas if a fav seems irresistible over my preferred pick. Occasionally, but more often than I’d care to admit, I’ll go crazy with too many poorly structured bets when I can’t narrow down horses. What does everyone else aim to do?
I have not done much good this year at Saratoga. The days I have chosen to bet this track this year has been the days I should have looked elsewhere, as some horses I liked have came thru at tracks I normally try to concentrate at least partially on. However, this weekend is mostly favorite day at most tracks, so while I wait for the tracks to cycle back around to the weeks I want to bet them, I will try to break out of my funk at Saratoga by betting a little less and spreading a little more. I have never try what I am about to try at any track in more than 40 years of betting, so you may want to proceed with caution. However, I am not one to keep trying the same old thing over and over when it is not working at a particular track. As I was researching my past bets at Saratoga this week, I saw a glaring weakness that can be rectify and made to work for me. While I am satisfied with my exacta box and WP bets, I could not find even one wager where I cash a trifecta and/or superfecta that paid near a grand or more, a type of wager that is successful for me at most other tracks. Race 1: This race looks like it will come down to four horses for the win to me. 3)Teachable Moment(5-2) Brown trains and the one to beat. 10)South West Bay(9-2) Ward trains. Sire was sprint champion in England in 2013 & 2014 and South West Bay is a member of his first crop. Broodmare sire, Sixties Icon is a G1 winner and from the first crop of Galileo. 11)I'm Looking Up(8-1) Dallas Stewart trains and he is a son of the speedy Speightstown. 2nd place finisher(favorite in this race) of his last was my 45-1 special first time starter that also ran second in his first start on Clark H. day at CD and I'm Looking Up simply could not run down any of the three who broke out in front of him in his last. 5)Knockout Punch(10-1) Hough trains and while his works are ok, he will need to run faster in this race to beat some of these. I will box these four on a dime super, then using a key wager, will add 2 more underneath and spread a little for a save and a bomb payoff. I will use 2)Azzedine(30-1) and 7)Mo Fun(8-1) in the 3rd and 4th spots. My Bets: $5 Ex Box 10-11(Total $10), $1 Tri Box 3-10-11(Total $6), .50 Tri Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-10-11($6 Total), .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11(Total $2.40), .10 Super Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11(Total $7.20), .50 Super Key 11 with 3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10(Total $9). Total Risk This Race($40.60). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2nd Race: I only like two horses in here and will only bet an exacta box. 5)Bossy Bride(8-1) is the one I like to win but I don't like her enough to risk WP money on. 3)Doll Collection(3-1) is the reason I will not risk WP money on my top choice, but I have risk money on her, to little avail. She is bred to run though and it is only a matter of time before she graduates against this type. My Bets: $5 Ex Box 3-5. Total Risk($10). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3rd Race: Another race that looks up for grabs, but also the type of race that usually offer serious money if you can pick it correctly. I think the win will come down to two horses, both decent odds but underneath will be the tricky part. 7)Shekky Shebaz(15-1) Adam Rice, the nephew of Linda Rice, trains. He has given the call to Jose Ortiz, who normally rides for Linda when she has a live horse. Third start this year but moves from the AWT at Presque Isle Down to the grass off two bullet works. 3)Soul P Say(12-1) was claimed out of his last and tries the grass for the first time after 23 starts on dirt. What is amazing about that is his sire, Soldat, a son of War Front, broke his maiden in the G3 With Anticipation S on grass, then ran 2nd in both the G2 Pilgrim S after a troubled trip & G2 BC Juvenile Turf(first running), looking like the winner in deep stretch before Pluck blew by him late. This is where bloodlines helps me the most, by identifying horse that spends a large part of their career at the wrong distance or the wrong surface. He qualifies on both. 10)Sir Ballantine(12-1) is another I will use underneath. While he has tried grass on three occasions with a third the best effort, they came at distances of 1 1/16 miles twice and 1 5/16 mile once but he ran an even race in all three. His only three wins against winners came at 7 furlongs and 1 mile twice, though he has spent most of his career running longer because of his late running style. But his pedigree suggests he will do much better at a mile or less. 2)Frisky Magician(7-2) is another who will be trying late and could actually win this. Trainer Jason Servis drops him into a spot where he has a chance of winning on paper but is willing to lose him via the claiming box, an indication he may have lost a step or two. Otherwise, why risk losing a horse that was just reclaimed by the previous owner two starts back? 5)Mission Command(8-1) is the last one I will include underneath. He has won on grass twice and trainers has used the dirt each of the last two years to get him in top shape. His best race last year came in his fourth start of the year on grass when second, the race he was claimed out of by current owners, but he had won his last start in an off the turf allowance race in 2017, cycled out of form and returned to his best form in that effort. Then he had three previous starts on dirt to begin this year before the break and was making his first grass start of the year in his last, also his fourth start this year. My Bets: $5 WP 7($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-7($6), .50 Tri Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($9), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10(2.40), .10 Super Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($3.60). Total Risk($41). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 4: I will bet this race the way I normally bet because maiden special weights races is where I have my most success at Saratoga. There are several in here that was purchased for a lot of money at auctions. 5)Kowalski(4-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start and after breaking poorly, he made a good run to get into contention before flatting out against a runaway winner who had a perfect trip. Two good works and with a better break, should make him the one to beat. 9)Sonneman(8-1) is my choice for second. He is a first time starter with some above average works. 1)Shoplifted and 1A)Soviet(8-5) are coupled and both are first time starters. 2)No Bad Days(20-1) is my choice for fourth. My Bets: $5 WP 5($10), $5 Ex Box 5-9($10), Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-5-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 5 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9($3). Total Risk $31.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5th Race: I will use six horses that I believe has a shot. 10) Dream Friend(5-1), 4)Combatant(8-1), 5)Prioritize(10-1), 1)C.C. Rider(12-1), 9)Keep Quiet(6-1), 8)Westerland(15-1). My Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10($4.80), .50 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10($4). Total Risk $27.20. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6th Race: I will use 5 horses in here. 3)Tequila Sunday(30-1), 5)Flashpackinbarbie(3-1), 12)Collegeville Girl(12-1), 1)Makin' Out(6-1), 9)More Mischief(9-2). My Bets: $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-12($10), $1 Tri Box 3-5-12($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-12($2.40), .10 Super 3-5-12 with 3-5-12 with 1-3-5-9-12 with 1-3-5-9-12($3.60). Total Risk $42.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: Another 6 horses I will center my risk around. 7)Hard Sting(12-1), 4)Proven Strategies(10-1), 6)Are You Kitten Me(6-1), 9)Fame To Famous(20-1), 5) Economic Policy(5-2), 2)Blanket Of Roses(6-1), And if the 11)Eagerly(7-2) draws in, I will drop one of the latter two and replaced with this one. My Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Key 6-7 with 4-6-7-9 with 4-6-7-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-6-7-9($2.40), .10 Super Key 6-7 with 4-6-7 with 4-5-6-7-9 with 2-4-5-6-7-9($3.60). Total Risk $48. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: Normal Bets. 3)Puttheglassdown(12-1), 7)Frosted Grace(10-1), 8) Dark N Cloudy(10-1), 9)Overdeliver(3-1). $5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 3-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk $34.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9th Race: Normal Bets. 6)Diamond Oops(12-1), 3)Imperial Hint(3-1), 4)Firenze Fire(9-2), 7)Do Share(15-1). $5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-6($6), .10 Super Box 3-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 4-6 with 4-6-7 with 4-6-7($4) Total Risk $32.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10th Race: Will use 5 horses in this race. 3) Ya Primo(8-1), 10) Channel Cat((12-1), 1)Arklow(9-2), 6)Highland Sky(20-1), 2) Sadler's Joy(6-1). $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 3 with 1-10 with 1-2-6-10 with 1-2-6-10($6). Total Risk $44.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11th Race: Abbreviated Normal Bets. 4)Global Campaign(2-1), 3)Milos(15-1), 5)Tacitus(7-5), 1)Laughing Fox(15-1). $5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-5($2.40). Total Risk $18.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12th Race: I will use 5 horses. 9)No Mo Promises(15-1), 10) Givethemanacigar(20-1), 8)Coach Villa(30-1), 5)Surge Pricing(2-1), 4)My Macho(5-1). $5 WP 9($10), $5 Ex Box 9-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-9-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-9-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 9-10 with 4-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10($2.40). Total Risk $30.80. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These will be my risks for this weekend. By my estimates, I will risk $400.40 and this at least gives me a variety of bets which I can recoup the initial investment and make a grand or so, if the horses I like finally decides to wake up and gives an honest effort. If they don't, I will turn the page and give another effort next week, like I have always done. I go through slumps every year and always have, but the difference now and 20 years ago is I now recognize my slumps and have the patience to wait for the signals that my slump is over. But I would not know for sure unless I take minor chances and bet like I normally bet.
I have always played the ponies by trying to find a edge no one thinks of and/or does not believe in. Most everyone's else biggest problem is they want to follow what others are doing because they feel it has been proven. And in most cases they are right, but then you have to settle for prices that will guarantee you will struggle until you get so tired of losing you either give up or have to find a better way. The way I do things is far from the only things you can do to have success, but fits my way of thinking and beliefs. All of my beliefs all backed up with stats that I have researched, but often everyone wants it to be opinion based, the quickest way to failure. Everyone has opinions but most does not have the same thought process on why something may or may not work, but only a few has data from research that backs up their belief. You can either do that research yourself or play the blame game why something can not work. It is your choice, but until you do the actual research, it is only your opinion. It amazes me the bettors who thinks they know everything when they have researched nothing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1st Race: I have two sets of picks as this race is scheduled for the grass. However, if it taken off the grass and half or more of the field is scratched, then I will pass on betting this race. Either way, I will thread lightly as this field looks wide open. If race stays on grass: I like 1A Digital Software(5-2 ML), 5) Leading West(12-1), 9)Acre(10-1), 3) Anoconda(9-2) in that order. If it is more to dirt, then 1)Market Impact(5-2 ML, Coupled with the 1A), 8)Fort McHenry(3-1), 5)Leading West(12-1), 3)Anoconda(9-2), in that order. 1 and 1A(5-2 and coupled if both draws in, so you will get both with bet). Most likely winners, one on grass and the other looks tough on dirt. 5)Leading West(12-1) Ran against a coupled(1 & 1A) expensive first time starters and a highly regarded horse in first start and they dominated, though about 1 length from missing third in an even effort. Like him on grass and even more if race is moved to dirt,as he has a better dirt pedigree. However, Distorted Humor foals is known for liking grass and loving off tracks. 9)Acre(10-1) debuted in same race as above choice, flashing some speed then tiring and finished just behind Leading West. However, his broodmare sire is Galileo, so he will prefer the surface switch more than choice above, especially if firm, but distance is still slightly shorter than he will do his best at. I have yet to see a Galileo foal that really likes dirt, which Galileo did not also, so I will toss him if the race is moved to dirt. 3)Anaconda(9-2) should be able to dispute the early pace and hang on for a piece. Both sire(Pioneerof The Nile) and grandsire(Empire Maker) ran only on dirt, but both has pedigrees than ran as good or better on grass. While Brown looks like he has him prepared for a better run on grass than dirt, he should have a say in the outcome on both surfaces. Grass Bets(scratched dirt bets if left on grass): $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-9($2.40). Total Risk: $18.40. Dirt Bets(If moved off grass only) $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-8($2.40), .50 Super 1-8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8($6). Total Risked $24.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2nd Race: Cheap claiming race, but at least know the surface race will be ran on. As long as the track is not sloppily, I will try to beat Brown's horse as she has set her own pace in her last two and could not finish in either. 3)Figure It Out(12-1) Will look past last as she broke slowly and could not make up ground on a loose on the lead filly. Races before that fits with these. Two good works since last. Working on third start since a winning effort. 1)Miss Imperial(8-5) Has faced stakes company in last four, so this spot should be easier than she has seen in a while. Rail is normally dead on fast track, but evens out slightly more on off track, but the main reason she is my second choice and not first. 5)Miss Marcela(15-1) Should be with the early pace but looks most likely of those that will continue to give an honest effort. Given 2 1/2 month break after a poor effort in first grass attempt. Possible she is off form as her running lines since her last win seems to be suggesting. Not a great workout pattern either. However, she is in care of long time trainer that has good stats with horses off freshening. 6)Carrizo(5-2) has highest lifetime Beyers which she achieved in last in this field against lesser but was claimed by current connections. However, her Beyers was not much higher that her previous high which only the favorite has a higher figure than that, so that makes her a contender with these. Bets: $5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-5($6), .10 Super 1-3-5-6($2.40). Total Risk $28.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3rd Race: Another field that looks wide open for maiden claiming: 7)All About It(2-1) Making first start of year off a less than ideal work pattern. However, both starts last year came against much tougher than he faces in here while narrowly beaten in both, so he is the one to beat. 6)Game Boy Benny(8-1) Looks like the front running speed in here and may prove to be too tough to catch, especially on a soggy course, either dirt or grass. Nice work pattern since his last makes him the biggest threat to top choice. 10)Oroscopo(10-1) Making first start of the year and first start as a gelding. New connections takes over training. Has a workout pattern that is slightly off my ideal pattern, but trainer probably believes in the 8 days between works pattern, so will use in exotics. Removes blinkers but horse has shown high front running speed in his starts, especially on grass. 5)Embellisher(3-1) Will include if race stays on grass as I expect him to sit a few lengths back as he shortens up in distance and get the best view of pace. However, if race is move to dirt, then I will opt for another. 1)High Rider(15-1). Not crazy about the rail draw on either surface, but I believe his best chance to overcome that disadvantage is on off dirt. Trainer's trainees also seems to perform much better on dirt than grass. Bets: $5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-10($6), .10 Super Box(Turf Only) 5-6-7-10, .10 Super Box (Dirt Only) 1-6-7-10($2.40 either way). Total Risk: $28.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4th Race: Another low level claiming level, this one N/W 3 lifetime: 5)Latin Love Bug(10-1) Edge in another wide open field. Had a 4 1/2 month freshening since last start but has a few decent works in that span, suggesting trainer was trying to get him in top condition before attempting another race. Before break, he won a N/W 2 lifetime in open company then tried an allowance race restricted to New York breds and ran credible. Probably needed freshening to let him get his legs back under him, after 7 races in 3 months. 4)Giant Boo Boo(5-2) Has made 2 starts this year after a 6 1/2 month break. He was along for second in first start back in slightly higher and then pressured the pace to the stretch before tiring in much higher class. Taking big drop, probably because traine owner wants to win a race at Saratoga and is willing to lose horse via claim. However, since he has so far not shown the ability to complete the job, I will place him second. Off track will help his cause, though. 9)Sam's Last Grasp(8-1) Ran 3rd in this class and conditions in last, after contesting the early pace and open a clear lead into the stretch before tiring. Throw out his only off track effort as the conditions was much too tough for him, as he had already proven two starts before on a fast track. Bred to love the off going. 7)Dooley(8-1) Would normally like him higher up, but his running style does not fit what wins at Saratoga. Both wins came after he lagged early in last and came home with a big kick. Has been near the back in all of his races, but likes off going so he will have a good chance at a minor placing. Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-5($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-7-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 5 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9($6). Total Risk $24.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5th Race: Another grass race, so I have two options, one for dirt and one for grass: 4)Cape Angel (7-2) Ran third in last in this condition, surface and distance in his second start of year after a 6 month break. Two works since. Has tallied 2 wins at Saratoga, both last year against slightly easier but on grass and slightly shorter distances including one on a yielding turf course, but is bred to like this distance even more, once in peak shape. However, his running style does not fit Saratoga's main dirt track and neither does his bloodlines, so will toss if race is moved to dirt. 3) Stella D'Oro(8-1) Another who is bred to improve as the distance stretches out and passed first U.S. test in last, though against easier on an off the grass race that was moved to the AWT. Has good shot to upset if race remains on grass but will look at others if race moves to dirt. His sire, Sea The Stars, is a 1/2 brother to Galileo and their 2nd dam doubles as the fourth dam in the female family of Stella D'Oro, increasing the likelihood that dirt is not his preferred choice. 1)Westerland & 1A) Krewe Chief(15-1) These are coupled and I will use one of them on each surface. Both should be near the early pace and that should give either a good chance to get a piece, at least, especially on less than fast or firm surfaces. Westerland has no speed on dirt because he does not care for the surface, but has been forwardly places in most of his U.S. grass races. Dangerous if left alone and allow to dictate his own pace on grass. 1)Bird's Eye View(4-1) Has the best recent class level race, but he will be going longer than he has ever had and he will not get away with dictating as a slow pace as he got away with in that G3 test and still got ran down. But he should hang on for a piece on a less than firm surface. 5)Local Hero(15-1) Was highly thought of earlier in his racing career as he should promise that never really materialize. But he rate close to the lead and he is returning to the level where he has been most of his career. Coming of a claim and going to a trainer that has a little success on grass, but I do not know if any of his previous claims showed marked improvement under his care. I feel he fits with these if race is moved to dirt, but am reluctant and will pass using him on grass. Bets(Turf Only): $5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 4 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7($3). Total Risk $21.40. Bets(Dirt Only) $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-7($2.40). Total Risk $18.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6th Race: Another grass race but one I believe they will not move to dirt unless necessary: 4)Alongcametheprince(50-1) Sneaky good bred horse for surface and distance. Only thing missing is a top trainer. However, at these odds, I will take a shot, as I do not get many opportunities to get monstrous odds like I used to. He has made 4 starts, all this year, but is working on third race since his only winning effort. Now switching to surface his sire and broodmare sire(both G1 winners) excelled on. Courageous Cat spent his career battling champions Gio Ponti and Goldikova and this one is a member of his third crop to race. Broodmare Sire, Sligo Bay, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells, but his dam line is responsible for Serenas Song, Saint Ballado, Saint Liam, Glorious Song, Ashado, Devil's Bag and many others. 7)Bourbon In May(6-1) Another well bred horse who fits this surface and distance very well. After breaking his maiden two back, he tried stakes horses that proved too tough this early in his career and several came out of that race to run well in graded grass races, including two eventual graded stakes winners. This spot should be much more to his liking. 2)All Systems Go(12-1) Has made two starts this year, with the first an even effort on dirt and then contesting the pace before tiring slightly. Still think he needs one more race to reach peak conditioning and for this reason I will place in third. Also don't care for the spacing of his races/workouts but his bloodlines fits with these. 6)Honey Won't(15-1) Won third start back, got a couple months break, and returned with a dull effort against a runaway winner followed by fast closing fourth which should set him up nicely for this effort. Another two month break, with the difference being he had average works that indicated he was not yet in peak form during first break, but during second break has worked like he is in top form. Honey Won't's 4th dam is also dam of Affirmed. Bets: $20 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Box 2-4-7($3), .10 Super Box 2-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super 7 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6($6). I know, I switched up a couple runners instead of going for the home run. A double is sometimes just as important. Total Risk: $67.40 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: Now getting to a few good races: 4)Candy Typhoon(2-1) Good works for debut. Looks like front running speed with Jose Ortiz up. Pletcher trains a well bred horse. Nothing new here. 8)African Heritage(20-1) First time starter with low percentage trainer, though he has shipped into Saratoga and sprung a surprise before. Good works for debut, but even better bloodlines. Sire, Cairo Prince was speedy and a son of Pioneerof The Nile, also speedy in his own right. African Heritage's dam, Celtic Gift, is a 1/2 sister to Harlan's Holiday, but hails from another Storm Cat sire line other than her 1/2 brother. 7)Excession(15-1) Made one start and broke poorly after preparing for first effort at CD and then shipping to Saratoga to run, a low percentage angle. However, he has prepared for 2nd effort at Saratoga, so I expect a better break and overall performance this go around. A good work followed by a maintenance type work since. His sire is Union Rags, a G1 winner and Champion 2 YO in U.S and dam, Draw It, a daughter of Tapit, ran 2nd in four straight stakes races, including a G1. 9)Fiesty Bird(6-1) First time starter. Started preparing for his first start at CD but trainer shipped early into Saratoga to finish preparing him for first effort, where tempo of works improved. Good work pattern and looks as prepared as any trainer can get one. Sire is Curlin but dam line has made an important contribution to racing. Family of Birdstone, winner of G1s Champagne S, Belmont S & Travers S, and Bird Town, G1 winner of Ky Oaks, Acorn S and 2nd in Test S. Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-8($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk: $24.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: 9)Ruby Notion(12-1) Since she is the only one in here that has ran in a G1, that being the BC Turf Sprint against colts, I will choose her and make the other ones beat her. She is also making her fourth start of the year after a six month break, my favorite angle to use. 2)Too Much Tip(20-1) In with a real chance of pulling a shocker. Filly that beat her two start back, Minit To Stardom, returned in next and wired the G2 Honorable Miss H at Saratoga at 20-1. She shocked mostly because she was given a low Beyer speed rating, even though she ran 1/5 off the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs, just like this one received for same race. 8)Broadway Run(9-2) Dead heated in her last with the heavy favorite, though it was her third effort since a 4 month freshening. More important, to me at least, she is working on her third start since just missing in her first start back this year. A powerful angle that has paid off many times because I look for them. Will this one? Will not know until tomorrow. 5)Morticia(1-1) Could have put either of two favorites here as both looks like they have peaked. She has followed the same path exactly as last year and both years the Caress S was her worst race of the five. While she ran third in two of her next three last year, they were not her best efforts. Deja Vu, anyone? Winner of the Caress S last year? Look at the bottom race of my top choice and you will see(Morticia, 4th in that race). Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-9($10), $1 Tri Box 2-8-9($6), $3 Tri Key 2 with 8-9 with 8-9($6), $4 Tri Key 2-9 with 2-9 with 8($8), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 9 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8($6). Total Risk: $38.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9th Race: After a lot of consideration, I will opt to pass this race and look for something more lucrative. Not really sold on the favorite, but not willing to try to beat Brown on grass either. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10th Race: 6)Ulele(8-1) set the pace in Iowa Oaks in last and got ran down by another in here. 3 more good works and a switch to a track that helps her running style more than last track is known for could be all she needs to get on top. 4)Champagne Anyone(10-1) Is working on third start since last winning effort. However, looks like trainer can not decide whether to send her out to contest the pace and lay back and make one run late. She looks like she has talent, just needs to put in all together and then she will be one to reckon with. Laying slightly off the pace and getting the jump on others should make her tough to beat. 5)Street Band(10-1) Won Indiana Oaks in last. 2 good works since that effort at CD. Takes another shot at earning G1 winner status after less than ideal trip in Ky Oaks. 1)Dunbar Road(8-5) Another one with a good shot of attaining G1 status. Race will come down to who has the best strategy that works or best trip. Rail draw is always a concern at Saratoga. Bets $5 Ex Box 4-6,($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-6($2.40), $1 Super Key 6 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5($6). Total Risk $24.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 11th Race: 10)Mary's Girl(15-1) ran solidly third start back against lesser, then tried to beat a speedy runner twice in next two, but was no match. However, in last, she drew the two post and inside has been less than ideal at Saratoga on a fast track. The favorite in this race who beat her in last was outside and had room to maneuver. She will also this time. Irad Ortiz takes back jockey duties, another positive. 3)Not About The Nail(8-1) Veteran of this field that likes to win and could be sitting on best race. She has won a starter stakes but not a state bred allowance that she earned more than $13k purse in her career, which makes her eligible to race in this. 6)Take Me To Hardoon(5-1) Looked ready to return to best form when given a six month break. Plenty of works for her return and she has faced the toughest company in her short career. Not out of this. 5)More Mischief(5-2) Returns against same class as last where she was in contention into the stretch, but could not finish the job as she flatten out. Bets: $10 WP 10($20), $5 Exacta Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-10($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 10 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6($3). Total Risk: $41.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- I believe I have listed around $323 worth of bets I am planning on making at Saratoga Saturday. Still looking for that breakout payoff for this meet. Two more Saturday opportunities after this one is left in this year's meet.
Alright fellow degens, here are my picks for all of the races at Monmouth tomorrow. I am excited about the racing, tons of great horses and great matchups. How I'm playing tomorrow: I listed four horses, but to select my key horse, I'm only choosing from my first three selections. I look at the betting on those horses at 5 minutes to post. The horse with the highest odds becomes my key horse. I bet an Exacta box with my key horse, and include my other top horses. I also include a fourth horse when I play this strategy. I'm going to place a few side bets and I indicated the races I'm placing those. Race 1: 1-6-8-2 Race 2: 6-8-7-2 $ Tip - Possible WP on Bal Bay Drive depending on odds Race 3: 2-8-5-4 Race 4: 6-2-5-3 Race 5: 6-1-4-2 Race 6: 5-7-6-2 Race 7: 2-5-8-7 Race 8: 3-1-4-7 Race 9: 5-8-4-7 Race 10: 4-2-7-3 Trifecta: 4-2-7/4-2-7-3/2-7-3-6 Race 11: 3-2-6-7 $ Tip - Possible WP on Valedictorian depending on odds. Underrated horse. Race 12: 7-1-5-2 Trifecta: 1-5-7/1-2-5-7/1-2-5-6-7 *Superfecta: 1-5-7/1-5-7/1-5-7-2-6/1-5-7-2-6-4 Race 13: 3-4-2-7 Race 14: 1-5-3-2 I'll be betting .50 boxes with my keys, hopefully hit a few. Tail with caution! I've done more research than I usually do, I really like Monmouth on the racing this weekend. However, I'm 5/19 over this past week. I've been getting crushed. My Exacta win percentage is still at 33% over 52 races in July, and the Haskell should be paying. Here's an image of my spreadsheet and more detailed stats. I'll also be betting .50 cent Tri's and Supers on my picks for Races 10 and 12. Good luck! I'd love to hear feedback if anybody tails.
EDIT::: IT HAS RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT IN CANADA!!! THEREFORE, I WILL ADJUST SOME OF MY BETS BEFORE BETTING! SEE COMMENTS BELOW FOR UPDATED BETS! 1st Race:Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YO Fillies--- Purse $71,000--- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT: 3) Muskoka Dancer (8-1) Has made one start and broke a little sluggish, then ran a fairly even race. Now with another 1/2 furlong and a race experience behind her, I expect her to break more alertly and track the early speed, then kick clear when asked. Trainer gave her two more works which signals she is moving forward and adds blinkers for her 2nd effort, all positive signs. Her sire, Danza, used that style of running in his 5 start career, which included a win in the Arkansas Derby and thirds in the Saratoga Special and the Ky Derby(his career finale). 4) Tara Dawn(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made two starts, the first which was to short for her running style, and the second when she sat just behind the early speed and tried to go by them in the stretch but could not run down the front running speed. Now two more good works since her last and she should give a repeat of her last, but with 1/2 furlong more to work with and plenty of front running speed to run at. 5) Rosiejewel Dancer (12-1) is my choice for third. She is a first time starter but the one who will enjoy running late. Not knowing how well she will get away from the gate is all that is preventing me from making her my top choice. Her sire, Girolamo, was a G1 SW and is a full brother to Supercharger(dam of 2010 Ky Derby winner Super Saver) and She's A Winner(dam of 2006 Ky Derby 2nd & Belmont S 2nd, Blue Grass Cat). Her broodmare sire, Afleet Alex, won the 2005 Preakness S & Belmont S after finishing 3rd in the Ky Derby. Nicely spaced works can only help. 8)Take Charge Eh(8-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, is a first time starter. She scorched her first couple of works, then was given a couple of easier ones to set her up nicely for her first start, which is the pattern I look for to bet in their next out. Since there is plenty of front running speed signed up, she should outlast them all but should have difficulty taking these gate to wire, especially at 5 1/2 furlongs. Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-5, .20 Super Box 3-4-5-8, Super Key 3 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 2: Charlie Barley S--- 3 YO ---- Purse $100,000 --- 1 Mile Turf: 3) The Black Album (3-1) is my choice to win. He is getting a big drop in class to what looks like the easiest spot he has seen thus far in his brief stakes career. Two good works since his last and his first time this year he has done that suggests he is starting to get near top shape. Now his trainer adds blinkers and a big jockey switch to Prat, a solid grass rider. 5) Global Access (1-1) is my choice for 2nd. His last two starts came against one of the favorites for the Queens Plate. He also has two good works following an easy one since his last start and signals he is ready also. 1)Inclusive (4-1) is my choice for third. He dropped down into a condition allowance in his last and beat slightly easier. Now he returns to his previous class and could win with his best effort or if either of my top two choices does not run their best race. 4)Curlin Grey (20-1) is my choice for 4th. He ran close to some pretty good horses in several of his maiden races before dropping into a maiden claiming to break his maiden, but that race knocked him off form because he had to chase the only speed down without any help, making up 11 lengths in 2 furlongs as well as drawing away by almost 5 lengths. While his last is not that good, it was more due to the fact he was asked to stay close to the early pace and came up empty when asked for his best run, a tactic not even close to what he has suggested he wants to do in his previous races. Bets: No WP, Ex Box 3-5, Tri Box 1-3-5, Super(Back Key) 1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 3: Zadracarta S --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $100,000 --- 7 Furlongs Turf: 7) Zestina (8-1) is my choice to win. She is making her third start of the year and her first two were even races. But she has worked three times since her last and they have, for the first time this year, indicated she is reaching her peak conditioning. She is also returning to what seems her best surface after 2 AWT spins. 1)Red Cabernet (3-1) is my choice for 2nd. She is dropping out of a G2 stakes into this spot and in fact, 2 of the top 3 in that race returns later today in another G2 stakes. She pressed the early lead before tiring slightly while still giving an honest effort and should be even fitter in this start, as that was only her 2nd start this year. The tactics employed in that start was simply to get her fitter for this start. And it seems to have worked as she has her fastest two works of the year since, both her first works on grass. 5)Alnilah (8-1) is my choice for 3rd. She has made two starts this year also. Her first start she pressed the pace before tiring in the stretch and in her second, she sat behind the early leaders and made a late move, but was beaten by the one sitting just in her of her and a late runner who nailed her at the wire for second. Bullet work since that start indicates she is ready. 8)Desert Isle (6-1) is my choice for 4th. She wired a conditioned allowance field in her last start and steps up to face these. However, her dam, Eye Of The Sphynx, had 3 3/4 siblings to this one, all by A.P. Indy. One won the Queen's Plate, one ran 2nd in the Queen's Plate and the other won a G2 grass race in Canada. Not sure if she is ready to beat these, but definitely the next obstacle to overcome in order to earn black type. Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 1-7, Tri Box 1-5-7, .20 Super Box 1-5-7-8, Super Key 7 with 1-5-8 with 1-5-8 with 1-5-8. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 4: Allowance --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $67,500 ----- One Mile Turf: 4) Moksgmol (20-1) is my choice to win. I normally chomp at the bit when I think I found a horse that will be overlooked and this is one. She broke her maiden in her first career start and since has been entered at distances that is a little less than what should be her best distance and a surface that probably is not her first choice, either. Now she gets both, her first start on grass and at one mile. Her broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, comes from a long sire line of champion grass milers who were extremely fast and this filly also gets a lot of help from her dam line. Three solid works since her last start, including two on grass and she should be ready to fire. 9) Close Image (8-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. She has made one start this year after a series of works that suggested she would leave her best race in those workouts and that is exactly what she did. The horse has not worked since, but she has already indicated she is fit and just needed a little time instead of more fast works. Now returns in three weeks and that should be perfect. 10) Syllable (15-1) is my choice for third. She made one start this year and after forcing the pace to the first turn, dropped back to last and made another attempt to impact the race in the stretch, but the first two were long gone but she did pick up third fairly easy. Apparently the trainer thought the blinkers made her over aggressive early in her first start under his tutelage and he decides to remove them for this race. This marks her second career start on grass and she has a decent work on grass since that start. Also, my third in their last beaten by more than 2 lengths by both the first & second place finishers angle and she could surprise for the win. 5) Descente (15-1) is my choice for fourth. She is making her fourth start of the year and also her fourth start since her last top effort, angles I use plenty with success. She also showed speed to the top of the stretch in her last, another angle I use. So why isn't she my top choice? Because she has a tendency to stop when pressure is applied. I have always believed that Bodemeister and his foals would do so much better if they were allowed to rate and make their best run in the stretch. And the few trainers that have tried that strategy realizes they seem to perform better that way, also. Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 4-9-10, .20 Super Box 4-5-9-10, Super Key 4 with 5-9-10 with 5-9-10 with 5-9-10. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5th Race: Maiden O/C $40,000 ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares ---- Purse $40,000 --- 5 Furlongs AWT: 6) Roansmoke (10-1) is my choice to win. She made one start this year on grass and did not do much running. However, in her only dirt start to date, the winner scorched the first quarter and half mile and that gave her no chance in that race, but none of these would have done much chasing that fast of a pace. All she needs is to get the early lead and you will probably see a horse that will wire this field. Works says she is ready and now it is on the jockey to get her going early. Could surprise! 1)Princess Fabiana (3-1) is my choice for second. She made one start this year and made a stretch move but hung late to finish fourth. That race should help her to move forward. One good work since that effort and with a furlong shorter to negotiate, this may be the spot she has been looking for. 3)Cassie's Rainbow (5-1) is my choice for third. Most will think she is making to big a jump in class to consider. But I don't. Actually, the trainer spotted her where he thought she fit best and almost pulled off a 55-1 shocker, missing by 3/4 of a length, when second in her last start. One work since her last and it will do for another good effort. 10)Magique (6-1) is my choice for fourth. She is a first time starter with a series of average works nicely spaced out and looks good enough to contend for the win here. Her sire is the speedy Badge Of Silver. WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-3-6, .20 Super Box 1-3-6-10, Super Key 6 with 1-3-10 with 1-3-10 with 1-3-10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 6: King Edward S(G2) ----- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $175,000 --- 1 Mile Turf: 2)Synchrony (7-5) is my choice to win. He has made four starts this year and is coming out of several races that were much tougher than this field. Probably the most likely winner on the card but odds will be low. 4) Savage Battle (20-1) is my choice for second. There is only one horse in here that will be able to put early pressure on this one and if he can not stay with him for six furlongs, then this one will wire this field. This will be this horse best distance and surface. I really do not believe he will be caught, but if he is my top choice is the only one that looks like he could. 7)Emmaus(3-1) is my choice for third. He has made two starts in the U.S., both this year and he just missed in both. Now, he is stretching out to a mile and most believe his record suggests he will not like it. However, his pedigree is actually screaming for more distance to around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles, especially his dam line. Only thing I do not like about him is he had two tough races in a row that may have taken a little conditioning away for his best shape. But his work since suggest maybe not. 3) Say The Word (8-1) is my choice for fourth. Yes he beat easier in his last and this is a step up for him. However, two starts back, a horse called Admission Office won that race, and that horse came within a length beating Catholic Boy in his next start and then the G2 Wise Dan S grass race after that. 3rd dam is Dance Smartly, a Canadian Triple Crown winner and dam of back to back Queen's Plate winners in 2000 and 2001. Shot to upset! WP 4, Ex Box 2-4, Tri Box 2-4-7, .20 Super Box 2-3-4-7, Super Key 2-4 with 2-4 with 3-7 with 3-7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 7: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 YOs ---- Purse $71,000 --- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT: 9) Proven Strategies(8-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start and there are several in here that are working solidly for their debut. Bur he is the only one among the top contenders that has Mr Prospector showing at all in their pedigree and he has him three times, all in his 4th generation. Good enough for me to let that be the deciding factor. 2) Canadian Secret (8-1) is my choice for third. He has made two starts and after not doing much in his first start at a distance to short for him, he was stretch out a 1/2 furlong in his second start and finished third beaten 4 lengths. Now another 1/2 furlong stretch out and you are in his wheelhouse. Two more excellent works and he will be very close against these. His sire, Secret Circle won the BC Sprint and returned the next year to just miss winning a second one. 4)Zoological (4-1) is my choice for second. The least fancy of the two Biamonte's horses entered, his pedigree suggests he has a ticket to run early and often. His broodmare sire, Hennessy, is grandsire of both Scat Daddy and Beholder, to name a couple. His sire, Animal Kingdom's only dirt win came in the Ky Derby, but he was much better on synthetics including a smashing win in the Dubai World Cup when it was ran on a AWT. 1)Meyer (3-1) is my choice for fourth. He has one start and was left with too much to do in five furlongs, though he was making up ground late. Now, he is stretching out another 1/2 furlong and has a chance to make an impact, though I like my other choices better. WP 9, Ex Box 2-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, .20 Super Box 1-2-4-9, Super Key 2-9 with 2-9 with 1-4 with 1-4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 8: Dance Smartly S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $175,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf: 2) Art Of Almost (20-1) is my choice to win. She is another that is taking a steep rise in class, but has the bloodlines to upset. Her sire, Dansili, was a miler during his racing career, but sired top distance runs throughout his stallion career, including Flintshire, Dank and The Fugue, all finishing first, second or third in six different BC Turf races. Art Of Almost 2nd dam, Roguer, came to the U.S. and won her first stakes race of her career in 1 1/2 mile test on grass and then in her third start ran 2nd in the G2 Orchid H at 1 1/2 mile on grass. 7)Lift Up (6-1) is my choice for second. She is making her first start of the year but all her wins has came on grass. Her trainer has a pretty good recent record of bringing horse back from a layoff of 6 months or more to win their first start back, but it tells less that 1/2 the story of how many times he has done so successfully. 6)Cartabianca(20-1) is my choice for third. She has two starts this year, both were much shorter than she wants to go to perform her best. She is the only one sign up for this test that is bred for 1 1/2 mile distances, but she should only need 1 1/4 mile to be a major factor. She has ran mostly at the smaller tracks in France, but sports five excellent works since her last start and gets her chance to make believers out of the doubters. 5)Get Explicit (10-1) is my choice for fourth. Her last was her best start this year and she has three more excellent works to indicate she is ready to produce her best race. While I still am undecided, I may move her up into my exacta box, as she was originally my first choice but I moved her to this spot after taking a look at her pedigree which screams miler close up, but then she get a double dose of Northern Dancer's line in her 2nd and 3rd dam. Bet time decision! WP 2, Ex Box 2-7(possible 5-7 box instead), Tri Box 2-6-7, .20 Super Box 2-5-6-7, Super Key 7 with 2-5-6 with 2-5-6 with 2-5-6(I know, not exactly like listed but putting the one most likely to win on top). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9th Race: Highlander S(G1) --- 3 Yo & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf: 6) Tricks To Doo(12-1) is my choice to win. He has cycle back into his best form and will be tough to beat in this spot. Four solid works since his last suggests he is ready to tackle the beasts in here. Even his dam had a distaste for dirt but showed up with her A game when placed on all weather tracks or grass. Ditto for Into Mischief, though he pass some dirt ability on to some of his foals. 2)Caribou Club (7-5) is my choice for 2nd. Anybody who has read my posts knows I like my City Zip's foals in sprints, whether on dirt, grass or synthetics. However, he made the long haul to Dubai and ran poorly. While that race is a toss, the travel is not. And he has not worked nearly as well since he returned as he was before he left, though his last was more like the old him. 8) White Flag(7-2) is my choice for third. He is entering this race off a more than five month layoff, but his trainer often brings them back ready to run, so that is not a major concern. I normally like War Front in mile grass races but since this one's broodmare sire is Gone West and the dam line produced Mr Prospector, he may not really care to go that far. This distance is a better fit for him. 1)Extravagrant Kid (6-1) is my choice for 4th. He won his last start which was a tough field for a non graded stakes race and he has one easy work since. Actually his only loss this year was against Pink Lloyd, Canadian's best older sprinter. Should hang around for a minor piece. WP 6, Ex Box 2-6, Tri Box 2-6-8, .20 Super Box 1-2-6-8. Super Key 6 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 10: Queen's Plate S --- 3 YOs Restricted To Canadian Bred--- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile AWT: 10) Sky Wire (4-1) is my choice to win. His last looks like more of a prep to get to the prize his connections really wants. His works picked up immediately after that start and he produced three solid works. Now he is ready for the big act. 4) Pay For Peace (15-1) is my choice for second. He won the Plate Trial in his last for his second win in eight starts. However, his broodmare sire, Sligo Bay is a son of Sadler's Wells and they usually do not like anything under 1 1/4 mile against the better competition. Nice odds for looks like a live horse. 14) Avie's Flatter (5-2) is my choice for third. I not sure if this is a distance he wants to go but he is the class of the field. Do not like betting horses going this far showing that much speed in workouts as most turns out to be sucker bets. But then again, it is restricted to Canadian breds, so talent is half the normal he would be expected to run against in this type of race. 6)Lucas N' Lori (50-1) is my choice for fourth. He has made 2 starts this year and encountered trouble in both. But I like the fact that his last was his first start with lasix off one slow work. His grandsire, Maria's Mon is sire of 2 Ky Derby winners(Monarchos and Super Saver) and his broodmare sire, Tejano Run, ran 2nd in the 1995 Ky Derby. So distance will not be a problem with this one and he has shown a little talent in his races. Bets: WP 10, Ex Box 4-10, Tri Box 4-10-14, .20 Super Box 4-6-10-14, Super Key 10 with 4-6-14 with 4-6-14, with 4-6-14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $65,000 ----- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf: 11) Baby Driver (8-1) is my choice to win. She has made 2 starts, the first was an even effort followed by a test against winners in an O/C race where she flashed speed and stopped against a field that was tougher than she was ready to test. She has another average work since that start and adds blinkers for this start. Just the relief in class should make her a contender against these. 13) Ekati Peace (8-1) is my choice for second. She has made three starts. After 2 failed attempts at pressuring the pace, she was backed off a little behind the early pace, made a move to the lead entering the stretch but got ran down by the winner to finish 2nd. Four more above average works since that effort should set her up nicely for this test. A return to grass makes her a win candidate in here. 3) Ready And Perfect (3-1) is my choice for third. She also has made two starts, the first when she set the early pace and flatten out in the stretch to finish third on the AWT. Then entered on grass, she sat behind the early pace and closed with a rush to just missed when second at 6 furlongs. Now stretched out another 1/2 furlongs and a good work since, she will be tough to deny a winning effort. 12) Strike It Rich (4-1) is my choice for fourth. She has made 5 starts, finishing second three times and third once. However, in her last, she sat just behind my third choice, let that one get a good jump on her as her jockey seemed indecisive about which route to take, but made up some ground late. Three works since that signals she was retain her condition and a jockey switch could be all she needs to get on top. Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 11-13, Tri Box 3-11-13, .20 Super Box 3-11-12-13, Super Key 11 with 3-12-13 with 3-12-13 with 3-12-13. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 12: Allowance --- 3 YO & Up ---- Purse $67,500 --- One Mile Turf: 3)Western Crusader(12-1) is my choice to win. He has made five starts in his career with his only two grass starts coming in the U.S. against better maiden fields that what he is facing in here. With two good works since his last, a decent effort, he should set the pace and may not look back. 2) Silent Jimmie (15-1) is my choice for second. His last was his only effort showing on grass, but he has 2 wins and 1 second, all at one mile on grass but is 0-21 on other surfaces and distances, most of his board finishes against maidens. He returns in 15 days with no works, but at the distance and surface he seems to prefer more than others. His last was just a little long for him, but should set him up nicely for this start. 7) Pipers Warrior (20-1) is my choice for third. He switches barns to make his first start of the year. He also makes the first start of his career on grass. He has seven works since returning to the work tab but his last two indicates he is rounding into shape. In a fairly weak field, that should be enough to get him a shot at the top spot. 11) Coleyville(20-1) is my choice for fourth. Two of his three lifetime wins has came on grass and his third came on the AWT in a race that was moved from the grass. He is making his third start this year and the fifth in his form cycle, but while a mile seems a little shorter than his best distance, he should come running late and begin the upcycle in his form. No works since his last is biggest reason I can not put him higher in here. WP 3, Ex Box 2-3, Tri Box 2-3-7, .20 Super Box 2-3-7-11, Super Key 3 with 2-7-11 with 2-7-11 with 2-7-11. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 13: O/C 62,500 ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares ----- Purse $72,500 --- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf: 3)Sanity (7-2) is my choice to win. While she does not fit my 3rd beaten by more than two lengths by the first and second place finishers to a T, it is close enough for me to make her my top choice. As with all my angles, I leave a little flexibility and make final decisions on a case by case basis. With this angle, I am simply trying to determine if the jockey used the whip excessively or if he was pushing too hard on the horse's neck. Horses needs some encouragement to move forward, but there is also a fine line that can have the opposite effect. 12) Killag Katie (8-1) is my choice for second. In her first start this year, she finished a length behind my top choice while making up ground late. Definitely in need of that start, she has one good work since followed by a maintenance breeze. She looks like a hard trying sort that comes up short in most of her races and that is why she will be my second choice, instead of my top choice. 10) Magic Spell (6-1) is my choice for third. She has two starts this year, the first an out she was clearly in need of and then a second in this class in her last, finishing in front of both my top two choices. She has third works since that effort and all indicates she is nearing top shape. However, I really do not believe she is quite there yet. For this reason and the fact she finishes third in most of her on the board finishes, this is why she will be placed there by me. 4) San Nicola Storm(20-1) is my choice for fourth. She has made one start this year against much tougher and was in need of that start. She has four good works since that effort and with the class break and surface switch, she is in here with a chance to win at a huge price. WP 3, Ex Box 3-12, Tri Box 3-10-12, .20 Super Box 3-4-10-12, Super Key 3 with 4-10-12 with 4-10-12 with 4-10-12.
This is also available on the Keeneland Select web site for free (where I post one detailed race analysis each week) here https://www.keenelandselect.com/blogs/ksblogge2019/10/17/keeneland-select-pick-day-october-19-2019 I'll be on TVG today at 12:30-40 ET talking about the race as well. That clip will be on their Twitter feed and facebook page following that. Race 9 at Keeneland on Saturday, October 19 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern Time Lexus Raven Run Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Seven Furlongs on Dirt | Fillies, Three Years Old I’m choosing Needs Supervision (10) as my top pick to win the Raven Run Stakes, even knowing she will go to post at higher odds than many others. Except for her poor effort in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February, Needs Supervision has done everything right, with three wins and two runner-up efforts in five races. After a half-length defeat in her career debut nearly one year ago to the day, Needs Supervision won three straight including the Silverbulletday Stakes and was on track to be one of the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks before the Rachel Alexandra. Her trainer then gave the filly nine months off and that did her a world of good as she returned to rally from eighth of nine into second in the Weathervane Stakes last month. Not only should Needs Supervision improve physically in her second start off the layoff, she has put in two sensational workouts in preparation for this race, the first on October 5 the best of 57 on the day and the second the third best of 35. Although Needs Supervision already won once on the Kentucky circuit when shipping from her trainer’s home base in Maryland, last November at Churchill Downs, I still wondered how trainer O’Dwyer did with shippers in these situations overall. STATS Race Lens let me get that answer quickly, and showed me O’Dwyer also shipped into Kentucky this past May to win the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes with Rookie Salsa at 27 to 1 odds. As such, I think Needs Supervision can run well enough to win in this situation. Bell’s the One (2) finished second to Covfefe in the Dogwood Stakes last month at Churchill Downs and although beaten eight lengths that is like winning in my opinion because of the nature of the horse which won the race. Covfefe had set the track record at Pimlico on Preakness weekend and is likely to be going into the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as the favorite off the sensational effort in the Dogwood and Bell’s The One rallied from fifth to second to be two lengths ahead of the third horse. The effort earned a 106 Equibase figure which is the best in this field by any horse to date in their career. Bell’s the One won at Keeneland in her second career start nearly a year ago to the day then won a pair of stakes last December and this past March as well as finished second in the Eight Belles Stakes in May. As she is making her second start off a three and one-half month layoff, Bell’s the One should improve and that makes her a strong contender in the Raven Run Stakes. Restless Rider (6) has run poorly just one time in eight races, winning three and finishing second four times. The poor effort came in the Kentucky Oaks when well regarded at the betting windows at 4 to 1 odds. After the 13th place finish, Restless Rider was given time off to mature and has come back with five excellent workouts in the past six weeks. Considering Restless Rider won in her career debut, finished second off a layoff last summer in the Spinaway Stakes and missed by a neck in the Ashland Stakes this past spring at Keeneland off a layoff, we should expect a big effort from this filly in this race. There are absolutely no real knocks on Royal Charlotte (1), who won the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga when last seen at the end of August, nor impressive first out winner Indian Pride (3), who may be the early front runner without opposition in this field. Neither can I fault First Star (8) or Irish Mischief (11), the former bringing a perfect two-for-two record in from California with both very impressive efforts, though not in stakes and the latter having just finished fast from eighth to second in the Charles Town Oaks at the distance. However, the likely odds on both Needs Supervision and Bell’s the One really make them the keys to profit in this race. Betting Strategies: Win Bets: Needs Supervision (10) and Bell’s the One (2) to win at 5 to 2 odds or higher, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. If Restless Rider (6) is anywhere near 3 to 1 odds or higher at post time, I would consider a win bet on her as well. Exactas: Needs Supervision (10), Bell’s the One (2) and Restless Rider (6) over ALL. At the $1 level if all 11 run the cost is $30 and in my opinion worth the risk as the payoff could be well over $100 if any of these three go to post at high odds as I expect they will.
I will post my choices at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Day. I am testing a new betting strategy for races when I think low odds horses will win and/or fill most of the exotics slots in races they look the best. While I am still a strong believer in the system and/or angles I already have in place, it never hurts to pick up small change when the opportunity arises. I also am one who rarely gets complacent and always willing to adjust my thoughts if I feel it can be beneficial. RACE 1: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 Yos-- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $100,000. My choice to WP will be 10) V Tach MD(15-1). He has started once in his career at Emerald Downs, where he set the pace but got caught in 5 furlongs by the second choice and finished 2nd. Emerald Downs is known for fast paces but most front runners normally gets caught in the stretch at that track. He was no different. He has since switched barns and moves to a track that will flatter his speed. His sire, Majesticperfection, ran 3rd in his first career start as a 4 YO and then reel off five straight wins, including an allowance race at OP in 108 3/5 and concluded his career by winning the G1 AG Vanderbilt S at Saratoga, also in 108 3/5. V Tach MD's broodmare sire, Proud Citizen, ran 2nd in the Ky Derby and 3rd in The Preakness S in 2002 to War Emblem and has sired two Ky Oaks winning fillies, one a close relative of this colt. I do not expect him to get 15-1 against these, mostly because those odds represents a major overlay. Drayden Van Dyke picks up the mount. My choice for my exacta box will be 8)Alex of Ice(6-1). A first time starter, he is a son of Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness S & Belmont S in 2005 after finishing 3rd in the Ky Derby. Alex Of Ice's broodmare sire, Devil On Ice won 10 of 22 lifetime starts, mostly allowances at tracks like Belmont Park, Saratoga, GP and Monmouth Park. He was also G3 stakes placed. His trainer, Steve Hobby, knows how to prepare them to race but usually gets more serious with them after a start or two. Have to use this horse in this spot. I will use the 6)All About Will(6-1) to complete my trifecta box. His sire, Will Take Charge, took a while before finally reaching his potential, though he showed flashes of being good throughout his career. He won the G2 Rebel S, G1 Travers S, and G2 Pennsylvania Derby before being beaten a nose while closing fast in the G1 BC Classic. All About Will has one career start and try to close on a sloppy track to finish fourth. I know most believe OP is a speed favoring track, but actually a late runner always has a shot if there is no moisture in the track or if they can get a ground saving run on the rail when moisture is present, especially if the front runners can not get the rail and/or decides to move off the rail. I will use 3)Barefootbootlegger(30-1) in a super box and key. He, too, has one career start and he pressed the pace with another longshot and the favorite in that race at Oaklawn Park on a sloppy track before the favorite put them away and just managed to hold on for the win, beating the horse(2nd favorite) watching the duel early along the rail by a neck. While Barefootbootlegger's sire, Storm's Eye, faded in his only career start after breaking poorly and then flashing speed, he is from speed influences families on both sides of his pedigree. Also, Barefootbootlegger's 3rd dam, That's My Hon, is better known as the 2nd dam of Kitten's Joy. Worth a shot to me. My Bets for Race 1: $10 WP 10, $5 Exacta Box 8-10, $1 Tri Box 6-8-10, .10 Super Box 3-6-8-10. .50 Super Key 10 with 3-6-8 boxed underneath. Total Cost $41.40. Race 2: Starter Allowance $8,000--- 3 YO & Up--- 1 1/2 Miles--- Purse $47,000. My choice to win will be 3)Kela Brew(6-1), though I will not be betting him to WP but instead take a shot at the exotics. He contested the pace in his 2nd start back before putting the other pace setters away and winning while clear. Then his last start and his 1st at OP, he tried to sit behind the early speed on a good track and tried to run past them, but the pace was much too slow for anyone to have a legit shot at running down the front runners, but he did not give up trying. The two favorites ran 1-2. The 4)Bigshot Laceshot(8-1) beat my top choice in their last race on a good track but I believe he will have a harder time in this race to get by him. But since I know his trainer, Larry Frazee, is a decent trainer and will pop one when overlooked, I will include him in my exacta box. 5)The Rouge Diesel(20-1) will be my choice to complete my trifecta box. While he does not look like he is currently in form, he did win OP longest race last year at 1 3/4 mile in an $8000 starter allowance, the same conditions as this race. The trainer and jockey are teaming up again at OP for the first time since that win. Could surprise but I personally thinks he needs one more start before springing a surprise, but I also think he is primed for his best showing this year. I will use the 7)Dynabeaver(12-1) in my super box. He ran 3rd against The Rouge Diesel in that 1 3/4 mile test last year, beaten 12+ lengths, but he bobbled at the start and then was too close to the pace for his normal late kick. However, his last start indicates to me he is returning to form. My Bets for race 2: $5 Ex Box 3-4($10 Total), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6 Total), .50 Super Box 3-4-5-7($12 Total), .50 Super Key 3 with the 4-5-7 boxed underneath($3 Total). Total Bets on race $31. RACE 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000. My choice to win is 10)Royal Mesa(7-2). He has two career starts, the first in a 6 furlong sprint where he was left with too much to do against those horses and his 2nd start, at 1 1/16 mile, where he closed with a rush to finish 2nd. Two good works and a maintenance breeze since makes me think he will give another good effort. His sire, Sky Mesa, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Hopeful S at Saratoga in his second career start and the G2 Breeders' Futurity in his 3rd career start at Keeneland. Royal Mesa's broodmare sire, Political Force, won the G1 Suburban H at Belmont Park for his only graded stakes win but he also ran 2nd in the Met Mile, also at Belmont. He finished 3rd in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in his career finale, beaten by Curlin, after being bothered in the early stretch run. I will use the 7)Twobirdsonestone(10-1) in my exacta box. He has five career starts, all sprints, and has shown very little. But his bloodlines suggests he will improve as the distances gets longer, so basically the trainer has decided he needs more ground(go figure) to give it his best chance. Flavien Prat picks up the mount, which is a major upgrade from the ones who has ridden him thus far. His sire, Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont S, spoiling Smarty Jones TC bid and then won the G1 Travers S. Twobirdsonestone's broodmare sire, Pure Prize, won the G2 Ky Cup Classic at 1 1/8 miles in his career finale and never won any race at under a mile, including his maiden race. He was a son of one of Ogden Phipps prized fillies, which there were quite a few and he was bred and owned by Phipps. The 4)Revenio(10-1) will be the one I use for my trifecta box. He has made one career start and was checked at the top of the stretch, losing all momentum, per equibase charts. That start came in the same race as my top choice, so he merits another opportunity to me, because he should be closer to the pace(if his bloodlines comes out in him) after gaining a little experience and making it less likely he will encounter trouble. Both sire and broodmare sire was speedy, to say the least. Could Upset. 9)Cowboy Diplomacy(3-1) will complete my super box, though I believe he will eventually be better at sprinting compared to middle distance racing. While his sire, Tapizar, was good in middle distances, his broodmare sire, Henny Hughes, was loads better while sprinting. My Bets for race 3: $5 Ex Box 7-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-9-10(2.40), $1 Super Key 10 with 4-7-9 boxed underneath($6). Total Bets $24.40. RACE 4: O/C $62,500--- 3 YOs Which Have Not Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races Or Claiming Price $62,000--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $101,000. My Choice to WP will be the 1) Mr Midtown(15-1). He won his 3rd start back in a $50,000 Mdn Claiming race, then was raise in class against competition that proved too tough for him this early in his career. Now he drops a notch and he should break better against these which will improve his chance to upset. While his trainer has done very little at this meet this year, he popped several longshots at OP last year. 6) All Bizness(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He beat my top choice in their last race, but he did it with a late kick after the winner tired the other speed out. His trainer, William Fires, is a long time competitor at OP and trained Archarcharch to win the Arkansas Derby. 7)Last Judgement(3-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His trainer is Todd Pletcher and jockey is John Velazquez. He has some decent works and some bloodlines in his dam family that makes me think he will fire his best shot. 3)Nacogdoches(8-1) was originally my top choice but after taking another look, I feel him, Half Ours To Keep and Dessman will hook up early, setting this race up for a late charge. Both his sire, Super Saver and his broodmare sire, Lion Heart, were better when they could get the early lead and relax in the middle stages of the race. My Bets: $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-6, $1 Tri Box 1-6-7, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-7, .50 Super Key the 6 on top and box the 1-3-7 underneath(slight adjustment in my key super because I like both about the same). Total Bets $41.40. RACE 5: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000. My choice to WP is 7)Honoring Major(6-1). He is the only one in this field who has a 6 furlong work since his last and it is actually a solid work for OP workouts. His owner, AJ Foyt Jr, is a former race car driver but has owned some good horses through the years. His trainer, William Fires, also trains the 6)All Bizness for AJ Foyt Jr in the previous race. But in this race, he is putting his son-in-law on the horse, and he was also the regular rider of Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch. Personally will not bet against this one. 5)High Sheriff(12-1) will be the one I use to complete my exacta box. He looks like he is beginning to figure out what racing is all about and he has bloodlines to compete against the best when he does. His trainer, D Wayne Lukas, like winning races on racing's biggest day and his works since his last indicates Lukas is up to his old tricks. I look for him to drift up in odds from his morning line and is, IMO, a value play. 4)Rotation(5-2) completed against winners in his last on a speed favoring Sunland Park and will appreciate the shift to OP surface, where late runners at least have a decent shot. The Riley Allison Derby has on occasion produced some solid runners. Also has good works since that effort. Expect another solid effort. I am going to throw the 1) Tiz A Secret into my super box. He has a pedigree that should like this distance a lot better than the 5 furlong sprint he is coming out of. My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta box 5-7, $1 Tri Box 4-5-7, $.50 Super Box 1-4-5-7, $1 Super Key 7 with 1-4-5 boxed underneath. Total Cost $54) RACE 6: O/P $50,000--- 4 YOs & Up Which Have Not Won 2 Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Have Never Won 3 Races Or Claiming Price $50,000--- 1 Mile--- Purse $97,000. I am going to pass on betting this race because I really do not like anyone who I am willing to risk money on. RACE 7: The Azeri S(G2)--- 4 YOs & Up Fillies---- 1 1/16 Mile--- Purse $350,000. I like the 1) Tapa Tapa Tapa(10-1) to WP. She is the only real front running speed in the race but whoever tries to go early with her will likely pay late in the race. I feel the big three will be more concerned about each other and could let her slip away. She has already beaten Elate when allowed to cruise. 2)Midnight Bisou(6-5) will be my choice for second. I believe she will be the closest pursuer that has a chance to stay close enough early. 4)Eskimo Kisses(5-1) will be the one to complete my tri box. I think she will be closer to her top race than Elate. 5) Elate(8-5) will be my fourth choice simply because I do not like the other two at all against these. My Bet $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-2, $1 Tri Box 1-2-4. $5 Super Key 1 With 2-4 With 2-4 With 5. Total Bets $46. RACE 8: Rebel S(G2)--- First Division--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000. 9)Improbable(3-5) looks unbeatable in this spot. His 3rd dam, Turkish Tryst, is also the dam of Hard Spun, 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby. However, I am not convince he wants to go this far without a track that helps him out a lot. So while I will use him in my trifecta box, I believe I will try to beat him. Equibase charts notes he pulled early in his last race, indicating he was fighting the jockey who was trying to get him to rate. He beat those on a heavy speed favoring track, but what will he do when the track does not give him as much help? The one I like is 4) Easy Shot(15-1). His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, likes for his horse to lay off the pace and finish strong. And there is plenty of speed to keep the heavy favorite busy. The only reason I am willing to use the favorite in here is because this is the lighter division of the two races. I am going to pull a shocker and use 7)Classy John(15-1) in my exacta box. Yes, his sire was speedy but he did wire the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2001 beating none other than City Zip before finishing 5th in the G1 Florida Derby when he was wide throughout and could not get near the rail, beaten by that year's Ky Derby winner, Monarchos, but also had to let City Zip show the way until he went around him turning for home. Since I am wasting money, might as well throw the 6)Ninth Street(50-1) in my super box too. He looks like he might be willing to run a little late and his jockey is known more for moving a horse late much better than getting one on the lead. His only two terrible races so far has been when his jockeys pushed him early, which he clearly does not want. Santana picks up the mount and Asmussen decided to remove the blinkers. My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta Box 4-7, $1 Tri Box 4-7-9, .10 Super box 4-6-7-9, $.50 Super Key 7 With 4-6-9 boxed underneath. Total Bets $41.40. Race 9: Essex H--- 4 YOs & Up---- 1 1/16 Mile--- $350,000. I like the 2)Hence(9-2) to WP. He won his fourth start back and now looks like he is beginning to peak again. Or he may have been in shape the whole time but could not beat the horses he was facing in a couple of them. Either way, he is my choice. 9)Rated R Superstar(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Not a big fan of his but with the jockey switch and a trainer who usually flies under the radar, why not? 7)Snapper Sinclair(9-2) will be the one I use to complete my trifecta box. 3)Sonneteer(5-1) looks most likely to crash my exacta and trifecta bets, but I do not like him enough to put him any higher than my super. My Bets: $10 WP 2, $5 Ex Box 2-9, $1 Tri Box 2-7-9, $.10 Super Box 2-3-7-9, $1 Super Key 2 With 3-7-9 Boxed underneath. Total Bets: $44.40. RACE 10: Rebel S(G2) 2nd Division---3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000. My Choice To WP is the 4)Jersey Agenda(15-1). He is getting a major jockey switch from Santana to Jose Ortiz, a much better jockey in getting a horse out of the gate. He has at least four top running and/or producing fillies showing in his five generation pedigree. 5)Game Winner(4-5) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Rosario has ridden him in 3 of 4 starts and Baffert will usually not replace a jockey until he loses on a horse or he thinks the horse was given a bad ride. I would have been concerned if I saw anyone else(in this case) abroad. 8)Gunmetal Gary(10-1) is my choice to complete my trifecta box. He has the bloodlines to win at 1 1/4 miles more than this distance, but he could upset these if the pace gets too testy. 7)Our Braintrust(6-1) is my choice to complete the super box. His sire, Freud, is a full brother to Giant's Causeway. His broodmare sire, Trust N Luck, wired the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2003 before running second in the G1 Florida Derby, to eventual 2nd place Ky Derby finisher, Empire Maker. Look for him to hang around and if one or two others breaks a little slow, he could be long gone. My Bets: $10 WP 4, $5 Exacta Box 4-5, $1 Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-8, $3 Super Key 5 With 4-7-8. Total Bets $56.40. RACE 11: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs ---- 6 Furlongs ---- Purse $100,000. My choice to WP is 3) Tut's Revenge(15-1). After a couple of tries at stretching out, the trainer decided to shorten him back up to 6 furlongs. He decided to add blinkers, most likely to help the horse to focus and stop looking around. In both stretch out, he drew poorly and now moves near the rail. 8)Nifty(3-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta box. He has ran solidly in both his starts and should find these a little easier. 10)Firecrow(7-2) is the most likely of the first time starters to get the lead, if he breaks alertly and could wire. But that is the question? 9)Youvesaiditall(8-1) will be my choice to complete the super. Another first time starter, but one who should not need the lead to perform his best, if he runs to his bloodlines he could upset these. My Bets: $10 WP 3, $5 Exacta Box 3-8, $1 Tri Box 3-8-10, $.10 Super Box 3-8-9-10, $1 Super Key 3 With 8-9-10 boxed underneath. Total Cost $44.40.
Any good resources for learning more about horse racing? Going to the Breeders' Cup this weekend!
I'm completely new to the world of horse racing and as the title says I'm going to the BC this Friday and Saturday with my girlfriend's dad. He's been going every year for the past 5 years and wanted to take me. I've googled some videos n whatnot but I still don't really know what I'm doing or looking for. If anyone could provide some good online resources, that would be greatly appreciated. I'm sure I'll make a few bets and I'd like to know a bit about who/how/why/what I'm betting on. Thanks all!
Kentucky Derby 2019 Wet Track Strategy: Let the 2017 and 2018 Derby be your guide!
Wet weather usually brings a lot of anxiety on Triple Crown weekends. Will it rain? How much will it rain? Who does what on a sloppy track and who has never even stepped in mud before? These are all questions that will have people pouring over their PP’s and doing deep dives into pedigree all week, only taking breaks to check the weather forecasts on their phones. My personal experience with off tracks is that sometimes being able to make simple observations regarding where horses are positioned through the course of a race can make muddy waters crystal clear. With off tracks, the racing community is really done a disservice because we simply don’t have enough words in the surface condition lexicon to make the differentiation between different types of sloppy tracks. There is nuance to a wet track and the same strategy won’t work every single time you play the game. Nothing illustrates this point more than watching the 2017 and 2018 Kentucky Derbies. Here’s the 2017 Derby. If you remember back that far, there was a good amount of rain but the sun came out just in time for the the Run for the Roses. Now when you watch this what sticks out to you about how the race unfolded? Is it the pace? Is it who the jock or trainer was? If so, take a step back and simplify. What should be sticking out is the POSITION AND PATH of each horse and how they finished. In this race, notice that the winner doesn’t travel wider than maybe the 3 path the entire race. Then look at the second place finisher. [email protected] ran a very different race in terms of pace, however got close and rounded out the exacta essential taking the same path at Always Dreaming. Also, look at the horses who were in the mix and what path they took. You’ll notice horses that were in the mix early but running a wider trip faded very hard. So you can see that there was a strong rail bias at play that day that helped the early speed that could get to the rail and the closers that could make a move up the pine. Now let’s compare to 2018. Let’s digest this race the same way we did the 2017 derby. What do you notice? In this case, Justify never takes a spot on the rail to save ground. He runs his race in the 2-4 path. Good Magic, who finished second, ran a similar race in terms of the path he took, staying wide and sometimes wider than Justify, but still hung on. When we consider the horses getting rail trips you’ll see that saving ground worked to their disadvantage because they ran into a DEAD RAIL. It’s easy to analyze races that are one and two years old. Unfortunately you can’t still bet these races with what we know now. THE KEY IS FLEXIBILITY! You will get to see 11 races before the derby. Watch and take notes, of what you see. Watch replays of each races after it ends. Hopefully you’ll be able to pick up on any trend with paths and position. Handicap the races and make your plan, but use your powers of observation throughout the race day. There’s nothing wrong with calling an audible midday to pick a winner. Don’t take a pride loss when you can use simple observation to shape your bets. Good luck everyone!
by Lenny Moon Reprinted with permission, this article discusses the best exacta strategies in horse racing. The Exacta is many horseplayers first taste of exotic wagering. In horse racing the Exacta requires the bettor to correctly select the first two finishers in a race. There are many ways to play the Exacta but most horseplayers are taught to play the Exacta in the most inefficient way, thus foregoing the opportunity to maximize their returns. I was guilty of falling into the trap because it was the way everyone played the Exacta, in fact it was the way the racing program suggested to play. Lucky for you I am here to teach you how to maximize your returns when betting the Exacta but before we get to that let’s take a few minutes to discuss the wrong ways and why they should be avoided.
The most common way to bet the Exacta is by boxing two or more horses. This is the strategy referred to earlier. Boxing your horses means they can come in any order so long as they finish first and second. At first glance, and to a novice, this might look like a great strategy because it provides a little cushion in case you are not perfect in your handicapping. What it also does is minimize returns because you are giving each combination an equal chance of winning. While there may be a rare occasion when you think two horses have an equal chance of winning or running second that should be the exception not the rule. Betting an Exacta Box is not only inefficient it can also be costly depending on the number of horses you use. A two horse Exacta Box costs $2 (2 x 1 = 2) for each $1 bet, a three horse Exacta Box costs $6 (3 x 2 = 6) for each $1 bet, a four horse Exacta Box costs $12 (4 x 3 = 12) for each $1 bet and so on. It may seem like a good way to bet but the cost and the likely return suggests otherwise. For example suppose you bet a three horse Exacta Box for $1. Your investment would be $6. If two of your horses are favorites and run one-two you might make a few dollars or depending on how much was bet on the combination you could conceivably lose money. The only benefit of boxing an Exacta is it will produce a higher win rate, meaning you will cash more tickets. In return, however, you will be minimizing your profits.
The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination.
The second most common way to bet the Exacta is a wheel. An Exacta Wheel involves picking one horse to win and “wheeling” it with the rest of the field. If your horse wins you win the Exacta but again you are not maximizing your returns. You are actually putting yourself in a position that adds more luck to the equation then necessary. Basically you are hoping your horse wins the race and the longest shot runs second. Unfortunately there is a much better chance one of the logical contenders will fill out the Exacta. That result will produce a much lower payout than if the longest shot ran second. Let’s say you find one horse you really like to win but you cannot figure out who will run second. The best option would be to bet the horse to Win and forego the Exacta. The more likely decision will be wheeling your horse in the Exacta and praying for a long shot to come in second. If the race had ten horses the Exacta wheel would cost $9 (1 x 9 = 9) for each $1 bet. In a ten horse field the Exacta will usually pay more than $9 for a $1 bet so if your horse wins you will most likely make a profit but at what cost? Let’s say your horse is 3/1 and wins. You bet a $1 Exacta Wheel which costs $9. A logical horse runs second and the Exacta returns $20 for a $1 bet. You excitedly make your way to the betting window to collect your $11 profit. What you fail to realize is you left money on the table. Had you bet that same $9 on your horse to Win you would have won $36 (9 x 3 + 9 = 36) for a profit of $27 (36 – 9 = 27). The Win bet would have made you a profit of $27 while the Exacta only netted you $11. There will be instances when a long shot finishes second and the Exacta returns more than the Win bet but more often than not one of the favorites will run second thus reducing the return.
Exacta Part Wheel
The Exacta Part Wheel is a step in the right direction. This bet involves wheeling your horse over a few other horses. This is a much better strategy than wheeling the entire field second because it costs less. In the same example from the previous section let’s say you decide three horses can run second behind your top pick. A $1 Exacta Part Wheel would cost $3 (1 x 3 = 3) for each $1 bet. Now you have shifted the odds in your favor. The $3 Win bet would only return $12 (3 x 3 + 3 = 12). The Exacta would return $20 for each $1 bet resulting in a profit of $17 (20 – 3 = 17). In this scenario the Exacta returned $5 more than the Win bet for each $1 bet. A more effective way to play the Exacta Part Wheel is to bet more than a dollar on the combinations. I used this strategy on Belmont day in the Easy Goer Stakes. I thought the favorite, Teeth of the Dog, was the most likely winner. He went to post at odds of 2/1, not very appealing for a Win bet. I decided there were two horses that were most likely to finish second, Skyring (6/1) and Fast Falcon (27/1). I gave both horses the same chance of running second so I bet a $5 Exacta Part Wheel with Teeth of the Dog over Skyring and Fast Falcon. As expected Teeth of the Dog outclassed the field and won 3 3/4 lengths. Skyring faded to last in the stretch but long shot Fast Falcon closed stoutly and just got up for second. The $5 Exacta returned $418.75. The $10 Win bet on 2/1 Teeth of the Dog would have returned a measly $30.50. In this situation the Exacta Part Wheel provided the maximum return. It also showed that you can make money betting favorites, if you do it the right way.
The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination. In the previous example had I thought Fast Falcon was more likely to run second I could have spent the same $10 by betting a $7 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Fast Falcon and a $3 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Skyring. Weighting your Exacta combinations is the best way to maximize your returns long term. Instead of being lazy and boxing your horses or wheeling them you should take a few minutes to think about what chance each horse has of winning and/or running second and then bet accordingly. An alternate example of the Weighted Exacta would be if you like two horses that you think will run first and second. Let’s say the first horse is twice as likely to win as the second. For the same $10 you could bet a $7 Exacta with first horse over the second horse and a $3 combination reversing it. If your horses run one-two you win and if you are correct that the first horse is more likely to win then you will be rewarded accordingly with a better return.
The Exacta is a great way to make money betting on horses. Unfortunately most horseplayers are taught to bet the Exacta inefficiently by either Boxing it or Wheeling their horse. Smart horseplayers, which includes you since you just read this, will instead bet Exacta Part Wheels or Weighted Exacta’s. The former group may cash more tickets but the latter group will make larger profits. To recap here are the important points to remember:
Boxing an Exacta is both lazy and inefficient
Betting an Exacta Wheel is injecting more luck into the equation
Betting an Exacta Part Wheel is a step in the right direction
Weighting an Exacta is the most efficient way to bet the Exacta and will produce the greatest returns long term
The Exacta is sometimes a better alternative than a Win bet, especially if you like the favorite
A Win Bet is sometimes the better choice, particularly in cases when you have no opinion on who will finish second
I hope this helps you make more money betting the Exacta, it has done so for me. If you have others ways of betting the Exacta please share them in the comments below. If you found this post to be helpful please share it using the social media buttons below, and if you haven’t already done so, join the AGameofSkill.com monthly newsletter by leaving your email address in the form below.
The Art Of Handicapping And The Ways I Approach Handicapping
To have success at betting thoroughbreds, you will need to learn how to break down races. But, first, I want to mention that every track has dirt and track setups(turns and length of stretch) that can influence the pace and this is why it is next to impossible to look at raw numbers and determine who is quickier from the gate and during the race, even. It is a mistake to consider each horse the same when they are entering races while coming from different tracks. I have long held the belief that all speed gurus assigns higher speed ratings to horses simply because they are coming from larger tracks and/or have been racing in races with higher purses. While this is not really noticeable in higher class races and horses running in top class races will have an advantage because they normally have been racing against better competition, it will often give you many opportunities to capitalize on horses that are overlooked coming from smaller tracks but racing in basically the same class but for less money and claiming prices. Purses offered does not mean a horse is better, but simply a track offer horses more money to entice them to race there. Class cannot be define simply because a horse has ran at a track that offers higher purses and this is a misconception throughout all of racing. A lot of my big price winners are actually horses coming from the middle size tracks where purses are smaller and taking on big brother who is overbet simply because he raced for more money and/or higher claiming prices or options. But basically, n/w 1 lifetime races are simply what they state. It is only for horses that has never won a race except their maiden races or some other conditioned race such as restricted(sales,etc) and/or races restricted to horses bred in that state. Very good horses also races at the middle size tracks, also. Over 90% of all races are not top tier races at all tracks, regardless if they are large tracks, medium size tracks or even small tracks. Class is determined more by conditions of every race and ranges from maidens, to n/w 2, 3, 4 lifetime races(claiming, allowance and/or state bred) and/or n/w 2,3,4, races other than(which includes lifetime, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year or even longer) to no conditions which means the race is open to all comers who wishes to run. When a field has to many entries, the tracks will either split the race and run two separate races under the same conditions or they will set up criteria where the horse they prefer will have the first option. Learning about class and what constitutes a rise and/or drop in class is the first step on the long road to repeated success. But every race will always be about early pace(front runners) or lack thereof. Some front runners will look like world beaters when they face no challenge early and will often finish in fairly fast time, but will wilt when any horse puts a minimal amount of pressure on them early and finish way back in much slower times. Other front runners, even when faced with pressure early, will still win but their final times will usually be slower because they kept trying even though they do not have as much energy left as a front runner who got no pressure. I will take a front running horse that faced pressure early and continued trying regardless of if he got beat over any horse that got to dictate his own pace with no pressure 100% of the time, and even more so if the pressured horse ran 1/5 of a second faster than the non pressured horse at first call(usually the 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile point, depending on distance of the race) in their last race, respectively and on occasion I will go a few races back if I feel the better horse needed that race. As you are looking for who may be the controlling speed or front runner, you will need to keep in mind that each horse will probably have last raced on different days and the dirt track may have been faster or slower on one day compared to the other. Most tracks cards their best races on Saturdays and those cards tends to produce faster times on average than other days but may not be any faster track wise than any other day of the week. Saturdays is almost always a track best days attendance and betting wise because a lot of handicappers find it difficult to attend races on other days of the week for various reasons. The first quarter will usually not be much slower for any horse on average, even on off days but the second and final times will usually be anywhere from a second to three full seconds slower on off tracks. Horses that flash speed on off tracks will still be fairly fresh at the 1/4 marker(first call) but as the race goes on will tend to start slowing down because they are usually exerting more energy every step but off the pace types and closers are saddled with the same problem and find it difficult to make up enough ground quick enough. As a general rule of thumb, for me at least, if I see two front running speed horses in the same race and neither has shown he can win when facing early pressure, I will normally look for a horse that I believe will stalk them about 4-5 lengths behind early and get first jump on the late runners. However, when I think the front runners is going to set a fast pace, I will bypass the off the pace type and look for a late runner because the stalker's jockey will usually panic and will send his horses after the front runner(s) too early. A lot of racing is about timing. But the stalker or slightly off the pace type horse is the type of horse I will most often bet to win and place. When two or more front runners duel early, these type of horses will usually sit the perfect trip and get first jump on the late runners coming from the back and often prove difficult to run down in time. Another time I will normally bet against the stalker or slightly off the pace type is when two or more front runners are dueling and one of the front runners looks like he may temporary break free after a stalker has already started making his move. A stalker will see the speed horse spurt free and will stop trying, thus setting the race up for a late runner to run either second or even first. So in theory, this is how I set my bets up in every race I bet. If I see a front running horse where there looks like there is no one else to pressure him early, I will box him in exactas and trifectas using late runners(no stalkers or slightly off the pace types unless the pace is expected to be slower than normal for that class). I used to key these types on top, but stewards at several different tracks taught me a lesson the hard way by taking them down and placing them second. I will bet the speed type back if he sets a brisk to fast pace and wired the field from gate to the finish line and finishes in a solid time. But if he is slowing down considerably or has in the past shown he can be caught, then I use extreme caution on a race by race analysis. I will always bet against any front running horse that sets a slow early pace in his winning race, regardless of if he finished in a moderate and/or fast time in his next start. The bet I make most often in exacta boxes is a slightly off the pace type(or stalker) with a late runner. I will usually throw the controlling speed in my trifecta box but will use another late runner often if I think all speed will stop. Before I bet superfectas, I will need to identify at least one longshot that I think will be overlooked and has a big chance to run in the top four. Before I bet any horizontal bets like a P3, P4, P5, etc., I will need to believe I have identified winners that I can key in at least half of the races and preferably more and they are rarely favorites. I missed a $40000 P3 earlier this year because my 40-1(thought he would be 10-1) and I keyed got nailed at the wire by another 25-1(who I thought had no shot to win). But the only reason I got close was because I identified at least 10 horses in the 2nd leg that I thought had a chance to upset, so I wheel(pick all to win) that race which had 14 entries(won by a 90-1) and keyed a 14-1 in the last who won by 6 lengths($28 ticket). So for $28(1x14x1x2(bet amount), I took a chance to make a life changing amount and was a nose short from making it happened. But if I had taken the same $28 and bet it to WP on any favorite in those three races, I would still have lost all my bets as no favorite even hit the board(1st, 2nd, 3rd). So do you want an opportunity to make a few bucks or do you want an opportunity to make an amount that could change your life? This is a question that each individual must answer for themshelves. But these opportunities only comes around every couple of months. But it is still a no-brainer for me personally. There are basically five or six angles I am always on the lookout for that has proven fruitful for me many times. I have mentioned that I have read many books on the horse racing industry and plucked all these angles from the books I read, though I tweaked a couple because they seemed to work better with with minor adjustment. First is the troubled trip angle. This is an angle I first heard of from Andrew Beyers Picking Winners book and he did a follow up in his The Winning Horseplayer book that was even more detailed. While most of his strategy regarding spreading out your bets and speed figures are not for me personally, his trip handicapping has proven to be a gold mine. It simply implies that watching races and noting which horses basically lost all chance from bad breaks, going wide, steadying after getting in full stride in the stretch, etc would be overlooked in their next start and win at big odds, especially if no one else seemed to notice(otherwise, not mentioned by race callers or experts). Next, speed to the top of the stretch angle. This implies that horses that battle for the lead to the top of the stretch(2nd call at least or third call preferably) but then fades would be stronger in their next race and was simply short on conditioning, especially if the pace was lively. Only informed bettors will even consider horses that faded in his last start. In the P3 that I referenced above, the winner of the last leg followed this angle exactly. He had shown speed to mid stretch before fading in his last start in a $7500 maiden claiming race at a small track. He was shipped across the state and entered in a $10000 maiden claiming at a much bigger track(bottom maiden claiming at the small track is $3500 and at the track he shipped to is $10000) So while it looked like he was going up in class, he was actually dropping. His trainer wins at 12-13% at the smaller track, but has shipped to bigger tracks where he wins at 6%. Since his trainer has already won on several longshots for me at these bigger tracks, I knew his horse was live and he would not be considered by most. The winner had started 6 times, all at the smaller track and had no wins 2 seconds and no thirds. The favorite who had ran 21 times with 0 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds at the larger track mostly, never picked up his feet. The horse than ran second in the race, got off at 10-1 and like the favorite, he had 15 prior starts with no wins or seconds but six thirds. To me, it was like betting an heavy favorite, but I was given 14-1 which was a gift I do not receive very often. Next, is the third race back angle. This implies a horse that won three starts ago, then had two less than inspiring or bad races, would rebound and win again. I originally found this angle flawed for two reasons and did a little tweaking to fit my beliefs. First, it seemed everyone knew about this angle and odds were often very low. Second, they were usually bet again regardless of how bad they ran. After a while, people thoughts began fading on this angle and horses started winning again in their third race back. But I noticed most were winning when they ran a horrible race after their winning race, then ran a much improved race their next start and would win again at solid odds. But if their better race of the two after winning was their first start, they would more often be in the beginning of their going off form cycle and would be bad bets to repeat in their third race back. So I add this to the original angle and started getting much better results and though I have never hit a bomb winner(40 or 50-1), I have many times received double digit odds on winners. Next, horses that ran third in their last start angle. I also found this angle in a book but the author was really speaking about horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths but ran third in his most recent race. As I have stated many times, I have never focus on any angle without researching the angle and checking to see if I can get the results I desire by using these methods. While the author was right about this angle, IMO, he really did not go far enough. But a couple of years later, I saw this same angle in another book with stricter criteria and it has proven to be my most consistent money maker through the years. The second author(I can not recall his name) noted the qualifying horse must have ran third in his most recent race, but he must have finished two or more lengths behind the top two finishers. Earlier this year, I saw a horse running at GP that had ran third beaten 6 1/2 lengths in his most recent start which was a non graded stakes race. He was entered in a grade 2 stakes race and was overlooked by the crowd and got off at 94-1. While he did not win that race, he did run second beaten less than 2 lengths by the second favorite and paid $60 to place. The favorite had shipped in from SA and was trained by Chad Brown but ran a flat race to be no factor(otherwise, he was not ready to face horses that was closer to maximum conditioning). The next two angles were angles I developed myself. I did not read either out of any books and developed them from watching many races. The first of these two is the fourth race back theory. It is a simple belief that horses will reach their peaked conditioning in their fourth start back after a freshening of six months or longer. But where do you think I really got this angle from? Well, if you look at the Ky Derbies that were ran through the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, you will see almost every winner and second place finishers were entering that race on their fourth start of the year after taking a break from their 2 YO campaign before starting their 3 YO campaign. Back then, most horses that were a factor was entering the derby in their 10th or 11th lifetime start(even had more races if you go further back) and had to be in better conditioning than their rivals. This is much less true today as most horses are entering the derby in 6 career starts or less and are not fully developed. This is the biggest reason many derby winners and 2nd place finishers today do not train on after winning the derby. They are ran into the ground and asked to do too much too soon without a solid foundation. And my last angle that I watch for has everything to do about conditioning. The best money making opportunity you will ever get involves identifying horses that have not yet ran their peak races in their current form cycle. After a horse run a top race is often much too late to get odds that can and will change your life, but if you learn how to recognize them before they peak, you odds of making money at horse racing betting goes up considerably. The masses will see their peak race and jump on the bandwagon which the results is much lower odds in their next out or two, depending on trainer and jockey recognition. So you say there is no way anyone can tell when a horse is reaching top form before hand? Well, did you know that a huge majority bet horses after they reach their peak? They also bet horses after they have ran their best race and only has one way to go and that is off form which they will usually do gradually. Most trainers can recognize when a horse is improving because they watch them constantly but for bettors, it takes some serious focus and knowledge to recognize this angle. For front running type of horses, they are starting to peak when they hold their speed for a longer time than their most recent races. For slightly off the pace types, you can recognize they are peaking when they make a serious run at the leaders before flattening out in the stretch run. For late runners, when they pick up(or pass) more horses than in any race in their recent past are all signs that the horse is peaking. I especially like betting late runners that ran 3rd, 4th, or 5th while making a run in their most recent race(and they do not have to close a lot of ground on the leaders) I will occasionally add a horse that ran 6th if that race was against a larger than normal field. Sorry about this long winded post. But before you can begin to get better or more consistent, you will need to recognize there are ways to make serious money and if you learn to recognize what works best for you, you are half way there. No need to guess and hope that lady luck shines on you, though that never hurts either when she does. But if you feel luck is the only way to make money, I would recommend playing the lottery instead of betting the horses. Your chances of making serious money is about the same but there is much less thought involved.
The Ky Derby is coming up!! Are you ready? Have you formulate any betting strategies? I will be using the same strategies that I have used for the past 36 years when narrowing down my choices. As usual, I will not be spreading my bets to try to hit one race, mostly because the only two times I tried ended up costing me a six figure payday once and a multiple 7 figure payday the other time(roughly 15 years apart). What am I talking about? In 1992, A.P. Indy was heading to the Ky Derby as a solid favorite, who I thought was as close to unbeatable as a horse can get entering that race. But he scratched the morning of the race. I was keying him on top with three longshots boxed underneath in both the tri and super. The shots were Lil E Tee(17-1), Casual Lies(40-1), and Dance Floor(35-1). After his scratch, instead of boxing these three together in the trifecta and super, I decided I would "spread" to give me a chance for a huge payoff(I was in the beginning stage of using breeding as a tool). The last two horses I eliminated the night before was Conte Di Saboya(40-1) and Pine Bluff(8-1). I decided that I would use Pine Bluff as my new key and proceeded including him on every ticket. I ended up betting $250 dollars(including $25 WP on Lil E Tee) and after watching the race and seeing the results, only then did I realized that I had not put my top three picks(after AP)together in the exacta or trifecta. The exacta paid $875 on a $2 ticket, the tri paid more than $40G, and the super paid $800G. If I had boxed these five horses in exacta, tris and supers, it would have cost more than $1G and this was not an option for me at that time. The second time, I decided to spread out my bets, was the 2005 Ky Derby. Again, I thought Afleet Alex was nearly unbeatable, but he had some minor issues affecting his breathing leading up to the Arkansas Derby, which he won by 8 lengths and was the second favorite for the Ky Derby. So this time, not wanting to repeat the same mistake I made 13 years earlier, I did a different kind of keying but ended up with basically the same results. I keyed Afleet Alex in first and second in all my bets and decided to used 5 horses to finish in the three underneath position. The five I used were Giacomo(50-1), Closing Argument(71-1), Don't Get Mad(29-1), Buzzards Bay(46-1), and Wilko(21-1). Everything worked out exactly to plan except one small detail. Afleet Alex(9-2) got nosed out at the wire by the longest shot on the board for second. I bet more than $700 on this race including $200 WP on Afleet Alex. The $2 exacta paid $9814, $2 tri paid $133,134 and the super paid $1,728,507. If I had boxed my first four choices in the exacta, trifecta and super, I would have taken home close to $2M. So when I hear of anyone talking about spreading, I now will tell them to go ahead, but I will now box all my bets, even if it causes me to miss the race. I have much more confidence in my handicapping than that and will never guess again to pick up a few bucks. The money I save each time I simply bet what I like and leave it at that will add up to more than I can make by guessing and missing. Now, as far as this year's derby, I have always used one strategy that has paid dividends throughout my racing experience. If you simply go back and look at the past performance of Lookin At Lee, you will see my favorite angle over and over throughout his past performance. When I see a horse that runs any of Lookin At Lee last 4 races only once, I will bet that horse in his next race 95% of the time. This is where a large portion of the longshots I cash in on comes from. A slow but consistent running line trying to catch the leaders is by far the best of all angles. And Lookin At Lee is not the only one pointing to the Derby this year with similar running lines. Take a look at Gunnerva running lines and you will see very similar lines before he won the Saratoga Special last year and the Fountain Of Youth this year. He ran the same type of race in the Florida Derby and the Breeders' Futurity(before his Delta Downs Jackpot win). Getting back to Lookin At Lee last race in the Arkansas Derby. Most will conclude that this horse is not good enough to beat the best of his class. But Contreras did not put one of his better ride on that horse that day. At the top of the stretch, he was about a length behind and following Classic Empire. I believe he thought CE was beginning to tire and decide to alter course with the horse, and then realized there was no opening as horses were starting to bunch up. See this, he jerked the reins on Lookin At Lee to get him to change directions back to the middle of the track. If you take a close look, you will see Lookin At Lee lose part of his momentum while gathering himself(probably thinking WTF) and then regain the momentum and lunged at Classic Empire trying to catch him. But it was too late. What would you feel like if you were running 35-40 mph and suddenly had to switch paths, not once but twice. You would probably feel dazed and confused. I know I would if I was being honest about it. Other horse I think has a big shot in the Ky Derby with Lookin At Lee, and Gunnerva are Always Dreaming(probable favorite and I like him more underneath that on top), Thunder Snow(breeding says yes), and Cloud Computing, who is bred on the exact same sire and broodmare sire lines as 2003 Ky Derby winner Funny Cide. The only difference is Funny Cide was more prepared experience wise than Cloud Computing. As it is kind of funny the way horse racing seems to repeat itself over and over again.
https://preview.redd.it/1hp1frl37tl11.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0a97799ab75ac5d4c8f3fb1d21d3dc58d2176d2e The basic concept behind Mutuel is reasonably straightforward. You make your selections for a sports event in the same way as you do for traditional sports betting, but you aren’t offered fixed odds when you put your money down. You’ll be offered “probable odds” based on the breakdown of the betting pool at the time. Be aware that these odds are subject to change, which you’ll be able to plainly see in the example we provide later on. Every Mutuel wager placed on a betting market goes into a specific pool for that market. When the relevant event is finished, the total amount of wagers is added up. The house takes a small cut/commission off the top, and then divides what’s left between the bettors who made the correct selection. They are paid out based on how much they wagered. https://preview.redd.it/j41gimwi6tl11.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6e5388f1d0cfc9e324592a1cd04f4135a7c358a This sounds more complicated than it actually is. It will become a lot clearer if we use an example to demonstrate. For the purposes of this example, we’ll assume we’re wagering on a horse race with just five runners. We decide to back horse number one for $10, and horse number three for $10. The house takes in the following wagers on the race.
Horse #1 – $200
Horse #2 – $400
Horse #3 – $100
Horse #4 – $200
Horse #5 – $300
These wagers total $1,200. Please note that we’ve used small numbers here to make this example easier to follow. In reality, there’d be a LOT more money in the betting pool. First, the house takes its cut of 10% for $120. This leaves $1,080 in the betting pool. The potential payouts for each horse are then calculated by dividing the remaining pool by the amount wagered on that horse. Feel free to look over the potential payouts list below.
Horse #1 – $5.40
Horse #2 – $2.70
Horse #3 – $10.80
Horse #4 – $5.40
Horse #5 – $3.60
We’ll now explain how you can use this information. Since the potential payout for horse number two is $2.70, this means anyone wagering on horse number two could win $2.70 for every $1 wagered. This includes their initial stake. If horse number one won the race, we’d receive a total of $54 for our $10 wager. If horse number three won the race, we’d receive a total of $108 for our $10 wager. As you can see, the potential payouts are all different. The total amount paid out will always be the same, but the amount per $1 wagered changes based on the total amount wagered on each selection. The more that was wagered, the smaller the payout per $1. This can be compared to fixed odds betting, where the odds for the favorite (and therefore the potential payout) are the lowest, and the odds for the outsiders are the highest. Although the odds aren’t fixed here, there will typically be more money coming in for the favorite than there will be for the outsiders. The big difference, as we’ve mentioned, is that we don’t know for sure what our potential payouts will be when we actually place our wagers. As we mentioned earlier, Mutuel betting operators show the PROBABLE odds prior to the relevant event starting. Although these are described as probable, there’s no guarantee that the eventual payout will be anywhere close. It all depends on how much money has been taken in on the different selections at the time we place our wager. For example, let’s say we had placed our $10 wagers on horses one and three long before the race started. The betting pool at the time was broken down as follows.
Horse #1 – $50
Horse #2 – $200
Horse #3 – $20
Horse #4 – $150
Horse #5 – $80
At this point there would have been $500 in the pool, leaving $450 after the 10% commission. The probable odds we’d have seen for horse number 1 were $9 per $1 wager ($450/$50). And for horse number three they were $22.50 per $1 wager ($450/$20). This is obviously not what ended up happening. When we originally placed our wagers, no one knew how much money was going to come in for the various selections, which is why these numbers don’t match up. This highlights how difficult it is to make money with Mutuel betting. An essential part of any sports betting strategy is to identify the value in the betting markets. We do this by determining the likely probability of a wager winning, and comparing that probability to the relevant odds. When the probability of winning is greater than the odds suggest, we’ve identified value. With Mutuel betting, it’s impossible to know for sure whether there’s any value or not. The probable odds at the time of placing our wagers are subject to change, and as we’ve just demonstrated they can change drastically. So what seems like a value wager at the time of putting our money down can actually end up being a very bad wager. That’s why it’s very hard for us to support Mutuel betting. While we realize that it’s popular, even among professional gamblers, we don’t prefer to expose ourselves to that much uncertainty. One positive about this form of betting that we can point out, though, is the wide range of different wagers available. Types of Mutuel Wagers In the example we provided above, we used a simple “win” wager. This is the most common Mutuel wager, but there are other types too. Each of these works in the same way in terms of how the potential payouts are calculated, but they are based on different outcomes. Here are some examples.
The terms of this wager will vary depending on where in the world you live. In North America, a place wager is on a selection to finish either first or second. In other parts of the world it’s a wager on a selection to finish anywhere in “the places.” How many places count towards this wager depends solely on how many participants there are.
This wager is specific to North America. It’s a wager on a selection to finish first, second or third.
Across the board
This is a combination wager, available in North America. It’s effectively three different wagers – a wager, a place wager and a show wager. If the relevant selection finishes first, then all three wagers win. If it finishes second, then just the place and the show wagers win. If it finishes third, only the show wager wins.
This is another combination wager, typically available in most regions outside North America. It combines a win wager with a place wager.
A wager on two selections to finish first and second, in the correct order.
A wager on two selections to finish anywhere in the top three places.
A wager on three selections to finish first, second and third, in the correct order.
These are just some of the many options available. These wagers can be extremely difficult to get right, but they tend to over very attractive payouts. This is what makes them so appealing and perfect for recreational bettors. Official site - https://legendary.bet Official chat - https://t.me/legendarybet_chat
Post Position 2 - Thunder Snow - 20/1 Rider : Christophe Soumillon Trainer : Suroor Saeed UAE Darby : Finished: 1st (#13) Other Derby entrants None UAE prep : Finished: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 3 - Fast and Accurate 50/1 Rider : Channing Hill Trainer : Michael Maker Spiral : Finshed 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None 60K (turf) : Finished 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 4 - Untrapped 30/1 Rider : Ricardo Santana Trainer : Steve Asmussen Arkansas Derby : Finshed 6th (#9) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st (#2) Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Sonneteer 4th(#7) Rebel : Finished 3rd (#5) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee 6th (#11) Risen Star : Finished 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants Girvin 1st (#1) Lecomte : Finshed 2nd (#5) Other Derby Entrants
Post Position 5 - Always Dreaming - 5/1 Rider : John Velazquez Trainer : Todd Pletcher Florida Derby : Finished: 1st (#4) Other Derby entrants State of Honor 2nd (#1) Gunnevera 3rd (#11) OC 75k : Finished: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None MDN 23k : Finished: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 6 - State of Honor 30/1 Rider : Jose Lescano Trainer : Mark Casse Florida Derby : Finished : 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Always Dreaming 1st (#4) Gunnevera 3rd (#11) Tampba Bay Derby : Finished : 2nd (#8) Other Derby entrants Tapwrit 1st (#5) Sam F Davis : Finished : 3rd (#1) Other Derby entrants McCraken 1st (#8) Tapwrit 2nd (#7) Mucho Macho Man : Finished : 2nd (#10) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 7 - Girvin - 15/1 Rider : Mike Smith Trainer : Joe Sharp Louisiana Derby!: Finshed: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Patch(#1) finished 2nd Local Hero(#3) finished 3rd Risen Star! : Finshed: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants Untrapped(#2) finshed 2nd Local Hero(#3) finshed 3rd Keith G Memorial! : Finshed: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants None MSW : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 8 - Hence 15/1 Rider : Florent Geroux Trainer : Steve Asmussen Sunland Derby : Finshed 1st (#9) Other Derby entrants Irap Finished 4th(#5) Southwest Stakes : Finshed 7th (#10) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee Finished 3rd (#4) MDN 72k : Finished 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 9 - Irap - 20/1 Rider : Mario Gutierrez Trainer : Doug O'neil Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants Practical Joke** 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th (#4) Sunland Derby : Finished: 4th (#5) Other Derby entrants Hence 1st (#9) Mine That Bird : Finished: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants None Robert B Lewis : Finished: 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants None MDN : Finished: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants
Post Position 10 - Gunnevera - 15/1 Rider : Javier Castellano Trainer : Antonio Sano Florida Derby : Finished: 3rd (#10) Other Derby entrants Always Dreaming 1st (#4) State of Honor 2nd (#1) Fountain of Youth : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 7th(#8) Practical Joke 2nd (#6) Holy Bull : Finshed: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 5th(#5) Classic Empire 3rd (#3) Delta Down Jackpot : Finshed: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants J Boys Echo 4th(#9)
Post Position 11 - Battle of Midway 30/1 Rider : Flavien Prat Trainer : Jerry Hollendorder Santa Anita Derby : Finished 2nd (#3) Other Derby entrants Gormley Finished 1st(#8) 75K OC : Finished 1st (#7) Other Derby entrants None San Vicente : Finished 3rd (#4) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 12 - Sonneteer 50/1 Rider : Kent J. Desormeaux Trainer : Keith Desormeaux Arkansas : Finshed: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire1st (#2) Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Untrapped 6th(#9) Rebel : Finished 2ND (#3) Other Derby entrants Untrapped 3rd (#5) Looking At Lee 6th (#11) 54k MDN 2nd (#8) Other Derby entrants None 54k MDN 3rd (#1) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 13 - J Boys Echo - 20/1 Rider : Luis Saez Trainer : Dale Romans Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) ** **Tapwrit 5th Gotham : Finished: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None Withers : Finished: 3rd (#10) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 14 - Classic Empire - 4-1 Rider : LEPAROUX JULIEN Trainer : Mark Casse Arkansas Derby : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Sonneteer 4th(#7) Untrapped 6th(#9) Holy Bull :Finshed: 3rd (#3) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 1st(#5) Gunnevera 2nd (#1) BC Juvi : Finshed: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants Looking at Lee 4th(#11) Gormly 7th(#7) BC Futurity : Finished 1st (#11) Other Derby entrants Looking at Lee (#12) Gunnevera (#2)
Post Position 15 - McCraken 5/1 Rider : Brian Hernandez Trainer : Ian Wilkes Blue Grass Stakes : Finshed 6th (#4) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th(#4) Sam F Davis : Finished 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Tapwrit 2nd (#7) State of Honor 3rd (#1) KY Jockey Club : Finshed 1st (#11) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 16 - Tapwrit 20/1 Rider : Jose Ortiz Trainer : Todd Pletcher Blue Grass Stakes : Finshed 5th (#4) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) **Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2)J Boys Echo 4th (#3)** Tampba Derby : Finished 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants State of Honor 2nd (#8) Sam F Davis : Finished 2nd (#7) Other Derby entrants McCraken 1st (#8) State of Honor 3rd (#1)
Post Position 17 - Irish War Cry - 6/1 Rider : Rajiv Maragh Trainer : Graham Motion Wood : Finished: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Batalion Runner 2nd (#3) Fountain of Youth : Finished: 7th (#8) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 1st (#2) Practical Joke 2nd (#6) Holy Bull : Finished: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 2nd (#1) Classic Empire 3rd (#3) Marylander : Finished: 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 18 - Gormly - 15/1 Rider : Victor Espinoza Trainer : John Sheriffs Santa Anita Derby : Finished: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Battle of Midway 2nd (#3) San Felipe : Finished: 4th(#5) Other Derby entrants None Sham : Finished: 1st(#5) Other Derby entrants None
Post Position 19 - Practical Joke - 20/1 Rider : Joel Rosario Trainer : Chad Brown Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 2nd (#7) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th (#4) Fountain of Youth : Finished: 2nd (#5) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 1st (#2) Irish War Cry 7th (#8) BC Juvi : Finished: 3rd (#9) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st (#5) Gormley (#7)** Lookin At Lee (#11)
Post Position 20 - Patch 30/1 Rider : Tyler Gaffalione Trainer : Todd Pletcher Louisiana Derby : Finshed 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Girvin Finshed: 1st (#8) Local Hero(#3) finished 3rd MDN 46k : Finshed 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None MDN 46K : Finished 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants None
Hey everyone! Just curious what you would consider a good handicapper? Is it someone who can pick 50% of winners, 60%, 70%? Is it more about how they manage their money that makes them good? I just started handicapping this year and usually pick 1 to 3 horses that I think will win the race. Usually I pick a winner in about half the races and at least one of my pick finishes in the money about 75-80% of the time. For example I bet all 12 races at Arlington last Saturday 5 races my horse won, 2 races they placed (lost by a nose and a neck respectively) and 2 times they showed. My betting strategy is to bet big on horses I'm very confident about, unless they have a terrible payout (I'm looking at you Gun Runner) as well as exacta if I think two horses are way better than the rest of the field. I will throw some pick 3s in there as well. I'm trying to improve my rate of picking winners but was just curious what would be considered a good goal to achieve.
My Transformation From Pace And Speed Figures To Breeding! The Best Move I Ever Made!
When I first took an interest in betting horses, I was in the same place as most every handicapper that knew nothing about horses other than they seemed to be entertaining. Like most of you, I heard about just about every angle that has ever been thought of and believed to be the way to making a profit on a consistent basis. At one time or other, I probably tried to used them all but usually came out more disappointed than being any closer to making a real profit. One of the first angle I tried was the pace angle. And this angle seemed to work pretty good at times but after a while I started realizing it was working the best when the favorites were winning. The end result was I was connecting on my share of winners but at the end of the day my profit would be little or even a loss for the day. And especially if I was betting any type of exotics including the exactas, trifectas, pick 3, pick 4, etc. Then along came the speed figures that was first put out by Andrew Beyer and many others have since follow through. They would take every race run on a single day, assign pars for each race, and then look at each race along with the pars to determine speed ratings. Otherwise, a top horse that ran in the middle of the week would often end up up with a speed rating that was 10 points too high because his time was compared against low level claimers, maiden claimers, and other races that were not even close to the class he was facing. Also, track conditions, wind velocity, track bias and other factors simply were overlooked and not even considered. A track itself goes through several different changes as it switches from fast to sloppy or vice versa. It will gradually get faster or slower, depending on all the factors mentioned above. a track can not go from sloppy to blazing fast in a matter of minutes, like most tracks seems to want you to believe. This is why when you are using pace and/or speed rating, they can be good or they can mislead you to making some of the worst bets you will ever make. Horses will basically run the same time and pace time after time, but according to the form and speed figures, they are often all over the place. The different makeup of each track only adds to the confusion and does nothing to point you to the real contenders. After years of "spinning my wheels", I decided there had to be a better way to determine the real contenders from the many pretenders that often shows up in almost every race. I decided I would start concentrating more on breeding than all of the other factors. I started a list of every sire I saw and the longest and shortest distances they won at. I also did the same with broodmare sires. This helped me take my game to a level that I had only believed that assisted but had yet to figure out how to get there. I started hitting many more horses with good odds instead of being limited to horses with low odds. There was nothing wrong with hitting horses with low odds except for the fact that I had to connect almost 50% of the time to eek out a small profit. And I have never been that good at picking winners and realized I never would be on a consistent basis. The first couple of years after I switch to using breeding as my main focus, I often found myself betting on well bred horses that were trained by trainers who basically knew nothing about how to prepared a horse to run against better prepared horses. It was when I decided to start requiring the trainer to show he knew something about how to prepare his horses that breeding took off for me. But breeding can be very complicated, especially if you try to over think it or if you do not know where to look to come to the best conclusion. I look at the sire and broodmare sire only in most races and use only them to come to the decision of who I want to bet. If I am not familiar with the sire and his race record, then I will often look at his sire to try to help me make an informed decision. Same with the broodmare sire. However, as the horses increases in distances and class, I realized a few years ago that I would need to dig a little deeper because there are often several horses entered that has an equal chance or better to take first prize. In these type of races, especially at distances, I look at the sire and his best distance, the broodmare sire and his best distance, the 2nd dam and her sire along with his best distance, 3rd dam and her sire and his best distance, and the 4th dam and her sire's best distance. When I say best distance, I mean the distance each won or competed the most at, not the time or track. Using the formula above and making informed decisions, you could easily have cash winning tickets in the Ky Derby on horses such as Charismatic at 30-1, Mine That Bird at 50-1, I'll Have Another at 19-1, Unbridled at 10-1, Giacomo at 50-1, and quite a few of the horses that were well bet. All these horses had something in common. They were all sons of top horses that all won at least once at 1 1/8 mile and their first four dams had sires that also proved they preferred distances and/or off tracks(in Mine That Bird case). I am not, by any means, any smarter than the average racing fan. But I have a determination to succeed that can often be the deciding factor on success, whether at betting or any other thing to do with life in general. I also realize I will have to be flexible and make adjustments in the future to my betting strategy.
If you are also interested we have compiled a list of the best books on the market that deal with betting and betting strategies. Here are 5 horse-betting strategies that will surely benefit you in the market. Recent Winners. This is a very simple strategy that we have to get out of the way. The way that payouts are calculated is different than most standard horse racing wagers. Superfecta betting is based on the pari-mutuel wagering system, which means there are no odds involved. Instead, payouts are based on the size of the betting pool and the number of winning tickets. Here’s a simplified example to demonstrate. A $2 straight exacta bet 3-4 would require that horse 3 win the race and horse 4 finish second in order for you to cash a winning ticket. Exacta Boxes. The second and most popular exacta wagering strategy is an exacta box combining 2 or more horses to finish first or second in either order. A horse racing Exacta is a wager on which two horses will finish in the first two positions. You need to get both the horses and their finishing positions EXACTLY right, hence the name. Let’s use an example to demonstrate how this wager works. Here’s what the Exacta betting menu looks like at one of our preferred online horse racing betting An Exacta betting slip would be displayed in the following fashion: $2 Exacta (2-7). This means you have placed a $2 Exacta bet on horse #2 to finish in first place (Win) and horse #7 to finish in second (Place). Exacta Box Horse Racing Betting. An Exacta Box bet is more versatile, allowing the bettor to place two wagers on a single betting
HOW TO WIN TRIFECTAS. HORSE RACE BETTING SYSTEM PART 2
The most popular horse racing tips for today from the OLBG team of tipsters are shown above.Watch videos about pick six horse racing tips, olinevideos review · British ice hockey betting ... Horse Player NOW's Joe Kristufek teaches the Exacta partial wheel, or "with" bet to a group of engaged fans in the Arlington's Park Pavilion. Learn how to bet on horses. Our video explains win, place and show bets. Combine these bets into one "Across the Board" or "Win Place Show" wager. Discover the trifecta, superfecta, exacta and ... Horse Player NOW's Brian W. Spencer suggests exacta wagering strategies during a casual "Learn to Win" seminar in the Arlington Park area. What is an Exacta Bet Bet in Horse Racing (Definition of Exacta Bet - Horse Race Betting) - Duration: 2:10. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 1,323 views. 2:10. Keying a Superfecta ...