Sports Betting Software - Free downloads and reviews
Sports Betting Software - Free downloads and reviews
The Best Value Betting Software/Finder 2020 — Punter2Pro
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The Best Sports Betting Software, Bet Programs
4 Examples of Best Sports Betting Software | ALPHA BETTING
Bitwin 2.0 - iGaming disruption is on its way
iGaming does not have to be expensive. Existing market structure drives tactics that peel off dollars from players who agree to the present gaming conditions. The general rule is that the bigger and more reputable gambling platform is the higher the margin fees it can tax on its clients. We can say it is common, when the platform uses just the well known or hidden monetization tactics, but there are plenty of documented cases of basic rip-off of the clients. This chapter explains why the latest technology may cease current market situation that favors gambling platforms, rather than their clients. Tokenization of online casino business means that users will be able to send and receive funds without the use of any financial institution. Cutting out the middleman will simply safe all of us lots of money and hassle. Imagine Visa, Mastercard, Skrill, Neller not even touching your money, and that there is no need to make bank transfers anymore. Especially time frames for many forms of international money transfers can take out all the pleasure from gaming and betting. At Bitwin 2.0 we save each and every customers time, granting participants with near instant transactions, close to zero latency in deposit or withdrawal, overthrowing every fiat, bitcoin and altcoin online casino out there. Waiting periods for transactions may soon be the thing of the past. What this basically means is that nobody, including other gambling platforms, banks and payment processing companies, will hold your funds to their own advantage — be it investing your and other players money for their own profit from so called escrow form, or collecting funds to use as a bankroll for games and bets. Long withdrawal times can also discourage players from payouts, making them come back to casino tables repeatedly and, as a result, loose big proportions of winnings. This is not the only advantage of creating cryptocurrency infrastructure on the top of the casino and sportsbook platform. Bitwin Token being based on ERC-20 standard, with a complete set of casino instructions written in the smart contracts, off-chain Raiden Network technology solution and other novelty functionalities, can achieve much more in terms of economic efficiency. In fact, it can accomplish lowest margin fees in the gambling market globally. Bypassing costly intermediaries such as server hosting, service providers plus previously mentioned payment processing companies, as well as overcoming standard Ethereum blockchain limits, results in gaming costs and house edge as low as 1%. Thanks to that, every single step of the game, and majority of additional actions on the platform, are automated and executed in the most efficient way, saving customers and Bitwin tons of money. Marginal costs and house edge in land and traditional online casinos could reach as high as 15%, so everyone can see the difference. What is more, omitting painful gas prices with Raiden Network allows Bitwin to process even the smallest bets without a significant rise in the games cost, which opens up new possibilities for customers, small gamblers and recreational players of any kind. Micro-betting activity will not slow down Bitwin Network, as it would in case of a standard Ethereum or Bitcoin distributed ledger capabilities; therefore, unabling other tokenized gambling projects based on blockchain to attract those who bet in minuscule amounts. To catch up with the attractive casino tokenomics, and in quest to offer a fully matured product that includes sportsbook, we did thorough market due diligence to find the best sports betting software that is blockchain — compliant. After consideration, we decided to partner up with FansUnite team in deployment of their cutting-edge protocol on the upcoming Bitwin 2.0 platform. FansUnite team did some groundbreaking work on their product, putting incentivized net of oracles on distributed ledger in addition, to developing a machine learning algorithms, which will be responsible for issuing and governing decentralized sports data and risk management respectively. The new alliance will assist Bitwin 2.0 platform with similar price efficiency that can be counted as one of the most appealing one in the global online vertical. FansUnite protocol assumes betting margins as low as 1%, which in comparison to the rest of the industry, seems to be a game changer. From customer point of view, cost-effectiveness is one of the most important factors in building the foundation of good relation with a company. Players and bettors, provided with inexpensive, robust casino and sportsbook alternative, will more likely choose an economical option in the long term. Bitwin makes every effort to provide the best solutions that will make the mass adoption plan possible, as long as term growth is substantial to us. We believe that we can only achieve it by differentiating ourselves from the current payment processing system infrastructure, and by developing attractive price efficiency. As a result, we are able to offer unquestionably noncompetitive terms that contemporary technological concepts can not provide. Decentralisation- guaranteed privacy Entertainment with Bitwin Token is fully anonymous. Bitwin, as firm believer in cryptocurrencies, positions itself with the rest of decentralized movement on privacy rights, entitling casino clients full anonymity measures. Fully decentralized platforms are rapidly becoming a means to guarantee confidentiality at its best. Blockchain, by design, was invented to connect interested parties without establishing necessary trust between them. Therefore, Bitwin customers can fully interact with the platform and feel safe with their sensitive information because nobody, including the site owners, employees nor any authorities, can access their data, which is one of the most significant traits that public, yet distributed ledgers have to offer. This prevents any hack attempt from taking over control of your credit card data or other vulnerable personal info as opposed to many known case studies of centralized gambling platforms. Privacy guaranteed by blockchain grants Bitwin 2.0 sportsbook users means to bet freely on every sport category, without bet amount constraints, unlike the limits that exist on other betting platforms. If you have any questions, please feel free to email us: [email protected] or ask directly in our announcement thread at Bitcointalk forum: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5081449 Never miss any update on Bitwin Token by showing some interest on our social media: https://t.me/bitwintokenhttps://facebook.com/bwtokenhttps://twitter.com/bitwintokenhttps://instagram.com/bitwintokenhttps://discord.gg/DNCksEmhttps://medium.com/@bitwintoken
My Introduction to a Professional Sports Betting Syndicate
This is part 1 of a 3 part story I recently shared within The Betting Network community. The Betting Network or TBN is a group of sports bettors that all share information with a common goal of winning more bets. I also do weekly lessons, a mentorship program, game previews and just pass along any and all information I’ve gathered over the past 15 plus years, the main goal is to help members improve their overall sports betting IQ and help them avoid the brutal trial and error I had to go through before becoming successful in the sports betting industry. I decided to share this story because of the feedback I received within The Betting Network, hope you guys enjoy it and also gain something from it.
Before I get into the good stuff I have to explain what my job entailed at the time. The company I use to work for scraped sports betting information and data off the internet. A lot of pro bettors use “data scrapes” and what it does is it searches the internet 24/7 every second of the day for anything that has the keywords you programmed into the software. Think about how much time and effort this saves. You input “LeBron James Injury” and the second anything related to that is posted anywhere online it will be sent to you and even compiled in an organized fashion. You could put Steph Curry 3pt attempts and it will gather all that info and compile it. Data scrapes are really the only way a person could compile stats and information on entire leagues, it would take the entire season alone if you attempted to input it yourself without a scraper. One of the most important data scrapers is for injuries and the company I worked for had it set up where it would be constantly searching the internet for injury related news and it would “ping” our computers already formatted so it could be sent out to members and social media. For example, this is what a “ping” would look like - CLE-F [LeBron James] - Calf- Questionable or GSW-G [Steph Curry] - wrist - Doubtful. Our job was to edit any errors and basically just click a button that was linked to send it out on all platforms, members text services, on twitter, everywhere we wanted. Our company's injury scrape was so good that live odds services like Don Best would simply have a scrape on our Twitter account. Pro bettors would just have notifications set for our tweets because we were breaking injury information 10 to 20 seconds before ESPN sometimes. By the way, 10 to 20 seconds is an eternity in the sports betting world. If you couldn’t tell already I’m no computer wiz, but what I believe separated our scrape from many others was how the information was formatted when we got it and how it was streamlined with all the platforms it needed to be sent out to after we got it. In other words, injury news breaks, we get the ping, hit one button and it’s sent. Other people may receive the injury information and have to type out the format and then send it out one by one to twitter or on their website. But like I said I have no fucking clue how it all works all I know is we were considered one of the best for NBA, NFL. If you want to learn more about how to actually set up a scraper I provided a good intro to scraping link here: ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/MommyWowMyFirstScraper.html The MIT Sloan conference is one of the biggest sports analytics conferences in the world. Myself and a few co-workers were sent to the Sloan conference to represent our company. It’s a big 2 day event and everybody from the sports world is there, anyone from sports book operators to NBA head coaches and players. Link below for this years speakers at Sloan ↙️↙️↙️ http://www.sloansportsconference.com/2020-conference/2020-speakers/ Anyone that’s heavily involved in the sports betting industry is usually there because it’s a great way to network with everyone all in one place. My company had a booth there and we would just answer questions, hand out promotional fliers and point out all the famous people we saw. This is where it gets good. While sitting at the booth a guy approaches me and asks: “What do you do”? Me: I’m a data analyst Guy: ok, but what do you do? I explained to him my job responsibilities adding in a bunch of stuff to make it sound more important because the truth was I sat at a computer for 8hrs a day waiting for pings and answering phone calls where 90% of the callers had the wrong number. He pretended to be interested in the job details and before I could get into what he did or why he was there the convo ended with him asking if I’ll be attending day 2 of the conference. I said yes and he told me he would also be back tomorrow for day 2 and that after the conference tomorrow him and a bunch of guys were going to meet for drinks at the Westin hotel across the street from the conference, “drinks on me” he said while walking away. The next day after the conference I went across the street to the Westin and they have a restaurant. I see “George” who I met the day before and invited me, he’s sitting at one end of a table that has 2 big tables pushed together making one big table. He waves me over and I sit next to him, there’s about 7 other people there. He tells me to order anything I want, drinks, food whatever and made a point to tell me and everyone there that he’s covering the bill. The Westin is really nice and expensive, not a place I would be going to eat and drink on my own considering I think I was making $16 an hour at this time. I couldn’t help but wonder why he invited me and only me when I had 2 other co-workers. After a couple hours and 4 vodka tonics I found out. “George” was a professional bettor and was (still is) the head of a nationwide sports betting syndicate. He knew exactly what the company I work for dos and even knew my boss. Once we got into talking about what he does he wasted no time telling me what he wanted to do. He wanted me to notify him and his team about injuries before sending it out to the public, 15 seconds after to be exact. He knew that a majority of sports books used the live odds screen Don Best and that Don Best used our company for breaking injury news and if he was able to get the injury news before Don Best he would be able to beat the line on all the books that copied lines from them. For example: Your bookie isn’t sitting in front of the computer moving the lines when an injury happens, it’s done automatically. Most local books set up what’s called an auto-mover and this copies the feed from another sports book. Some local books may copy the feed from say pinnacle or 5dimes or any book they feel has strong accurate lines. They can’t set up a direct feed to pinnacle or 5Dimes because established books such as those can detect software. So what they do is set the auto-mover up onto a live odds service like Don Best. Once the line moves on don best all the books that are copying lines will then move their lines. George had software of his own that allowed him to bet games on thousands of accounts with a few clicks of a button. He explained to me how this would all work - I get the ping - CLE-F [LeBron James] - Rest - Out, I would copy and paste that onto the telegram messenger app and press send, he said sing happy birthday and when finished then I could post it to the world like I normally would. With his automated bet software he could pick off all the books that didn’t move the line yet based on Lebron being OUT. Of course not every single book was reliant on Don Best to move lines, many of the bigger well known offshore books had their own data scrapes and injury software, but more than enough books did rely on Don Best, who relied on my company. So the potential for this was through the roof. I had some serious thinking to do, as much as I wanted to say yes on the spot my instincts held me back. I told him I had to weigh the pros and cons. After all I basically would be tanking my job duties and going from a committed employee to what seemed like a sneaky spy. It does our company and it’s members no good if I’m sending out information late or at the same time as every other company. Also, without getting too detailed regarding the financial arrangement I felt I needed to counter his offer. The biggest upside for me besides the money was my strong desire to get involved with a real sports betting syndicate but the negotiations quickly let me know that there is a dark side to the industry and I had one foot in. To Be Continued.... PS I’ll likely share part 2 and 3 in the coming days.
It's been a while since I made a big post. Lots of people are still messaging me about the energy sector post, especially for the ENPH tip, so I'm here to show my portfolio. I don't own all companies yet, this is partially hypothetical. I'm holding on to a reasonable cash position for a possible new downturn, but I have starting positions in most companies and will DCA. I will try to keep it summarized, as I have done quite a lot of analysis on each of them. I'll draw the main picture and give the most important arguments for my choices, but I'm not expanding too much. If you're interested, you can DM me to talk about them more. Let me start by saying I'm a growth investor. I always look for a combination of growth with a great track record, if possible at a reasonable price. There are exceptions as you will see below, but the main balance stays the same. I'm not a defensive investor, but no aggressive one either. My timeline is 2-5 years at least (due to a possible start of a small business), but I would gladly hold on to these companies 10+ years. TLDR; For you guys not interested in my portfolio, I've added a short list of interesting smaller cap companies at the end, most of them trading at decent values. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES - $AMD This one is becoming a blue chip, but has more than enough growth potential to live up to those high valuations. Preferred by gamers and beating their biggest competitor in the CPU market hard. While AMD and INTC were close competitors at the beginning of the 21st century, INTC took the lead by a lot. Since 2017, they introduced 7nm CPU's and GPU's and they are closing the gap fast. Not only are their chips more performant, they are also cheaper. Market cap $60B vs $261b. Those next generation chips lead them to new partnerships, often beating INTC. Microsoft, a long time Intel customer, began using AMD chips in their Surface laptops. Lenovo using AMD for their new servers. Nvidia started using the chips in their AI products. AMD is also used by Apple's high-end laptops, while Intel (used in the budget range) will probably get replaced by Apple chips made in-house. Apart from laptops, AMD has government contracts to deliver supercomputers in 2021/2023 and they are used in both PS and XBOX consoles, to give a few examples. For the CPU market, AMD is destined to take over, but they're also taking on NVDA for their GPU's. They have been catching up for years and in 2019 they finally made a better performing GPU in the $350-400 price range. There is a possibility to gain GPU market cap since NVDA has been pushing their prices due to the lack of competition. Therefore, with AMD stepping up their game, they need to give up market share or lower their margins. Financial Assets over liabilities are x1.88. Cash to debt ratio well above industry average, debt to EBITDA well below IA. ROE 17.12% and ROIC 28.06%. Earnings were growing fast before Covid (125% in Q3, 78% in Q4). Yes they're overvalued, but with their future outlook, I would always buy below $49. Doubts Now that they are done catching up, the question is, will they outperform in the future. To gain more market share of Nvidia, they need to be better, not equally good. AMD also needs to control the heating better, as it is one of their long term problems. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- MASTERCARD - $MA Fintech companies like SQ and PYPL are a great investment. However, a lot of big companies will (and already did) implement online financial services. MA is able to easily work with multiple of those companies and they're using their global presence pretty well, that's why they're my pick for the fintech industry. They launched Mastercard Accelerate last year, implementing those online paying platforms and letting start-ups take advantage of their global presence to grow and transform very fast. Last year they acquired Ethoca (managing e-commerce fraud) and Vyze (platform to connect merchants with multiple renders, giving them the opportunity to get those financial needs for start-ups). MA is basically helping start-ups to grow faster, which will result in more financial transactions in the future. Last but not least, they like to focus on expanding to countries where there isn't much competition yet. They are expanding their exposure to Middle East and Africa, working with local networks and e-commerce platforms. They are in a strong position to capitalize those regions in the future and take on market leader Visa even more. They get compared a lot to Visa, so I'll expand on that subject a bit as well. While V is focussing on performance and speed, MA plays the cyber security card. They are already working on ways to implement cryptocurrency and Mastercard tend to have more growth potential vs stability from market leader Visa. While V is in the lead, MA is more widely used by fintech companies, which shows potential take-over in the future. Next to their credit services, they also own debit service Maestro, which is widely used in Europe. Financial Returns as high as 150% (ROE) and 60% (ROIC). Very large margins and perfectly stable balance sheet. High EPS growth YoY, 53% and 42% in the last two years. Quick ratio 1.87. V has more assets and even bigger margins, however MA wins in returns and cash. In terms of more growth, I like to focus on those last numbers more. Doubts It's a blue chip at a $300B market cap. Their growth potential might be limited, although I see them as one of the better picks between blue chips. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ENPHASE ENERGY - $ENPH I already talked about solar energy in another post, so I'm gonna skip the explanation. As some of you know my choices were ENPH and SEDG, so I'll explain a bit about why I choose ENPH here. Mainly it's because of their financials, so I'll dive that straight away. Quick ratio - 2.35 vs 1.74 ROE - 142.94% vs 21.51% ROIC - 85.51% vs 25.81% Net margin - 25.81% vs 10.28% However I think SEDG balance sheet is a lot better and safer, ENPH is working on their future more efficient. They are paving the way smoothly with bigger margins and return on investments. Although SEDG might be the better pick right now, ENPH will be the better one in a short while. ENPH is also a bit less overvalued and their PEG ratio is lower, which makes them the better pick to get in right now. Diving into the products as well, ENPH just has the better and more efficient product. Their micro inverters are more durable (20 vs 12 years) and give the chance to increase or decrease the amount of solar panels easily, depending on your personal situation. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- GALAPAGOS - $GLPG I'm not a big fan of biotech companies, but these guys have my attention. Not because they're working on Covid vaccines, but because of two reasons. First one is them getting back-up from Gilead Sciences. That's the push they needed to start operating worldwide, increasing their potential market cap. Now that they have the cash from GILD, they can keep on buying interesting divisions and increase their growth. While having almost no long term debt, they are set pretty well with about $4 billion extra in cash. Second, they have multiple medicines in later trial phases, with Filgotinib as their biggest one. They had a setback on those results, but the company is very confident, giving an opportunity to get them at a decent price. I wouldn't be surprised if they partner up with another big pharmaceutical company in the metabolic disease section. Financial High PE (84 vs 44 average), but PEG ratio is 1.2. Quick ratio 9.28. ROIC 75.91% and ROE 7%. Became profitable this year with 16.25% net margin. 38.7% YoY EPS growth. Doubts Like all biotech players, there's a lot depending on medicines getting through phase trials and being commercialized. If Filgotinib will fail, their stock will obviously fall. However since they are backed by a big US giant, they can commercialize the product faster and on a bigger global scale if trials succeed. That's what gives them the advantage in comparison to other biotech companies for me. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- WALT DISNEY - $DIS This one has got me doubting a lot. I've taken them off and put them back on my list multiple times, but eventually I decided to keep them at least 2 years to see how they will evolve into streaming. Biggest advantage they have on their competitors is they basically have a monopoly on kids entertainment. Kids are growing up with electronic devices and content, so they're creating customers at a very young age. That's how Coca Cola used to work. They targeted 14-16 year olds, dumping loads of money into advertising which resulted in life long customers, as people didn't change cola brands often. Disney+ is a big hit and they won't get so much competition from other streaming services as Netflix and Roku will. They have one of the strongest defined brands out there and they know perfectly how to build and maintain their company. It's also still unclear how sports with public will evolve, but it's certain streaming will become even bigger after Covid. Therefore their money-losing ESPN acquisition could even turn into a moneymaker. Financial I can't really say great things about their financials. ROE is 12.67%, above 10% is decent. Assets over liabilities are x1.85 and debt to equity is 0.61. You could apply the saying "too big to fail' here, but that's about it. The bad financials are mainly caused by their big investment to streaming of course and they're working on it hard. They doubled their cash position, increasing their quick ratio from 0.75 to 0.89. Doubts I would say financials are their weak point here. They still have to go through some bad weather this and next year I would say. Them doubling their cash position in Q1 was soothing, as I see it being the biggest issue for the future. It might be better to wait it out and keep an eye on them for next year, but I wanted to take a position already. Not higher than 8% of my portfolio though. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- MICROSOFT - $MSFT They don't really an introduction I guess. 2nd biggest player for cloud services with Azure. Naming Satya Nadella as CEO and making the transition from hardware to software in 2014 were the best decisions they could've made. Acquired the government contract with Pentagon, however there's still uncertainty about it. In short, Amazon is claiming they were about to win the contract, but Trump criticizing the company would've lead to calling off the deal. For me, that's probably the main reason why MSFT didn't fly as high as their fellow cloud competitors yet. Financial Assets over liabilities x1.67. ROE and ROIC respectively at 43.82% and 28.88%. Quick ratio of 2.88, 0.65 debt to equity and 1.86 cash to debt. Decent financials, great returns. Talking about blue chips, I would say MSFT is still fairly valued with a PEG ratio just below industry average. Also paying a small dividend. Doubts The Pentagon contract allegations could be pretty negative for the company. They will probably not come back on their decision, cause if they do, MSFT will claim they already made big investments towards them and things will just keep on dragging on. Even without the contract, MSFT should be a 10 year hold while buying on dips. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES - $IIPR Haven't read a lot about them here on Reddit, but they're a very decent investment. Basically, they buy properties from cannabis companies and leases them back to the sellers, giving them the cash they need to grow faster and IIPR keeps the long term advantage of renting out those properties. They need to buy about 6-8 properties a year to keep their growth rate going and they already bought 7 this year. They still have a lot of cash ready to take advantage of the crisis. Not only are they 20% undervalued right now, they have a lot more growth potential after that and on top of it, they pay close to 5% dividend. I'm not a big fan of betting on the best cannabis company for the future, but IIPR is a great buy to have exposure in that industry. It doesn't happen very often I come across a company that combines growth potential with a high dividend, but IIPR does. Financial Quick ratio 6.75, cash to debt 2.8 (while REITs have an 0.07 average). Net margins 13% above average. Assets over liabilities x4.88. Annual EPS growing by more than 150% and about 41% in the last quarter before Covid. They just missed Q1 estimates, but it was only an 8% drop from Q4, performing way better than other REITs. Doubts IIPR has held a lot of new investment rounds, diluting shares. Of course extra capital will result in higher growth and will eventually be positive in the long run. There has been a drop in these last few days due to the announcement of selling 1 million more shares soon. I would look at it as an opportunity to get an even better price on them. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TELADOC HEALTH - $TDOC It's the only company I don't own yet. I can't force myself to invest more than $140 per share for them, although I really like their business model. A lot of people are skipping doctors visits these days, going straight away to get medicines and counting on the advice of pharmacists. A lot of times, there's more examination needed. Not only do I see them succeeding in their field, I see them as an essential part of the automation of the pharmacy industry. It's a useful tool in emergencies, giving advice and deciding how serious the condition is, if (fast) medical care is needed. Teladoc will also play a role in insurance and giving the employers a checking tool. 98.9% of their shares are owned by institutions. Financial In terms of profitability and returns, not great of course. They are estimated to get profitable in 2023. Great balance sheet, assets over liabilities x2.66. Quick ratio 6.14, cash to debt 1.06, debt to equity 0.48. Doubts It's hard to see if a company is well managed before they are profitable. Their moat isn't very narrow, however I feel being one of the first ones gives you a big advantage in this field. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- DRAFTKINGS - $DKNG Gonna keep this one pretty short, there has been enough posts about Donkey Kong. For me, the most important factor for choosing them in this industry is their fantasy sports section. They are widely popular and that division will only get more interesting while online gambling, and especially in-game betting, gets more and more legalized in the US. Although they realized major revenue growth in 2019, they almost doubled their earnings loss. Main reason of course having to develop their platform and system. Good thing is, their technology is highly scalable, meaning they margin will grow massively while expanding in to more states and countries. Not many ratios available yet, so that's about the only financial information I own atm. The only negative I see is their pretty wide moat, so this one should be monitored more closely in the future. But for now, they have the momentum and are one of the most popular choices, great investment. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES - $RTX As many of you know, two great companies (UTC and RTN) merged together in April. While United focussed on aircraft engines (Pratt & Whitney), Raytheon manufactured weapons, military and commercial electronics. They always delivered advanced technologies and them gaining multiple government contracts in the last decade is confirmation of their performant products. Raytheon will continue to grow their leadership in different segments. Because of their diversity, they seem perfectly in place to grow even more into an aerospace & defense giant. Engines, aerostructures, avionics, sensors, cybersecurity and other software solutions are just a few examples of their working fields. Financial With a PE ratio of 13.58 and PB ratio of 1.41, this is probably the most undervalued stock in my portfolio. Assets over liabilities x1.43. The rest of their financials isn't that great. UTC was carrying a lot of debt, but because of the merger, it will be better balanced as RTN was only carrying $2 billion net debt. If they can decrease their debt and optimize their merger, they are set to be the new number one in defense. Doubts It's still unclear how the merger will work out financially and logistically. In theory, they should be very well armed (pun intended) to take on LMT as market leader. Their exposure to commercial aircrafts is also a big threat, but it's less of an issue because they can make up with their other practices. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- As you can see, I've tried to get the best blue chips with still some growth potential and stable growth companies together. Since a lot of companies already got mentioned on this forum, I'll include a bonus round of interesting companies I came across during my search for the best companies. I didn't include them in my portfolio mainly because I feel the chance of them succeeding and living up to their future potential is more risky than others. For you looking for higher risk, higher reward, check out these companies below.
$INMD. They offer minimally-invasive aesthetic medical products for various procedures, such as liposuction with simultaneous skin tightening, body and face contouring. They are actually the only company in my watchlist that scored maximum on my financial checklist. I love to watch their financials. While we're in an overvalued market, INMD has only 18.73 PE and 0.6 PEG. They certainly got hit by Covid, but I would be very surprised if they don't multiply their market share over the next years.
$SMCI. Based mainly on servers and storage solutions. They are the supplier for cloud computing and AI based companies. They were ranked 18th fastest growing company by Fortune Magazine in 2016, but they still have a long way possible to grow. I see them stagnating a bit for a few years, but they definitely have potential in the long run. Financially very stable, big on cash to make some acquisitions and trading at only 14.84 PE.
$CDLX. Great business model. They basically turn financial transaction data into valuable information for advertising. They show returns as high as 30:1 for advertising spent. Not only is the online payment industry growing fast, but after Covid companies will need to work their advertising budgets even more efficiently. CDLX has momentum and will increase that market cap massively. That future outlook has a price unfortunately and I feel they're too expensive right now.
$OLED. They hold patents on ultra high definition OLED screen technology. There's still a large transition going on from LED to OLED screens. They are estimated to increase their manufacturing with 50% by the end of 2021. Unfortunately most of that growth is already priced in right now. It doesn't take away the longer term potential, but it doesn't make it that sexy of a buy right now.
$OMCL. Omnicell provides pharmacy automation solutions and other tools for healthcare systems. Big on cash, low on debt. They have an interesting business and the automation of healthcare will continue to grow, however they are also trading a bit above value.
$PCOM. A technology company based on e-commerce and services through loyalty programs. Most of their partners are airlines, which explains their difficulties of getting back up since the drop. At the moment it's unsure how this will work out. There will barely be room for bargains or rewards, however while the industry has to build up again, there's an opportunity to take away long time customers from competitors. Although they have enough cash to weather this crisis, they are depending on the industry. At PE below 10 and having a decent cash position, it's worth a gamble.
$APPS. Digital Turbine offers a mobile platform mainly for new apps. They have a very high future revenue forecast of 202.2% over the next 3 years. Big on cash and no debt as well. They already acquired Mobile Posse in March, diversifying their platform. Analysts are putting an average price target of $9.88 on them, giving it a 61% potential return.
$NVMI. They develop and produce process control systems used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, mainly focussing on industrializing X-ray and optical technologies like holographic images. Cash to debt 6.1, debt to equity 0.1, quick ratio 5.75, ROE 12.83% and ROIC 20.26%. Their financials are great. The only thing you could say is they are slightly overvalued, but still a very nice buy in comparison to the overvalued tech industry.
$INS. Active in the fintech sector, they provide tech solutions and processing services. Very similar financials to NVMI. Big on cash, almost no long term debt, great returns (ROE 29.7% / ROIC 85.95%) and steady growing EPS. They are also slightly overvalued, but should easily get back to $45 range after the crisis is over.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- So, that's about all I have to share. This will also be my last big post a while. Analyzing stocks has been my main occupation for the last three months, but it's time to work on opening up the hotel and bar again. I hope some of you get something out of this. I'm not a professional so always check again for yourself. I'm gonna hold on to these companies for a while now. Will add some extra capital at the beginning of 2021, so you could expect another big post about my newest findings then. For now, I'm gonna take a break from following the market day in day out and enjoy the weather a bit more. Have a good one!
Will the Green Bay Packers win OVER/UNDER 9 games? By University Stats Prof!
Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title. The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings. At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties. Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era. Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra. Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency. As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change. Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass. Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo. Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher. Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well. Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span. If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon. Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers. Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury). Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful. One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure. Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team. Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions. In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract). Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins. Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure. We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings! The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level. The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys. I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020. The QB and RB situations remain the same. Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker. Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him. All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers. The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either. Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game. The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively. Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage. Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants. First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders). 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run. The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland. Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019. He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good. The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner. Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not. In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack. 3.5 Safeties (S) Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here. Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra. After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7). Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news. The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams. The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks. The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result. Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed). Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Packers won more or less than 9 games.
Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):
OVER 9 WINS
UNDER 9 WINS
Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5% Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games: HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN. ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers! Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season! Professor MJ
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win OVER/UNDER 8 games? By University Stats Prof!
Anthony Lynn’s first two seasons as the Chargers head coach were successful with 9-7 and 12-4 records. However, last year was a clear disappointment as the team finished dead last in their division with a 5-11 record. That included losing six of the final seven matchups. Obviously, the team is entering a new era with a big QB change. They hope the 10-year drought without a division title is going to get snapped sooner than later.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) After spending 16 seasons with the Chargers, Philip Rivers signed with the Colts. His 23-to-20 TD-to-INT ratio last year was the worst of his whole career. He still racked up 4,615 passing yards, though, but his arm looked weaker than ever. He also struggled as soon as he felt the rush coming. Before the draft, head coach Anthony Lynn kept repeating that Tyrod Taylor was in the driver’s seat to get the starting nod under center. Does that still hold true after drafting Justin Herbert with the No. 6 overall pick? I doubt it. Herbert is one of the most polarizing prospects. Some experts believe he’ll have a great career, while others see bust written all over him. He is physically gifted with good size, an elite arm strength and mobility that allows him to elude the rush and pick up first downs with his legs. He is also known for being able to make all types of throws. The knocks on him are as follows. First, some people question his leadership ability because he’s an introvert. Also, his decision-making isn’t always the best, he fumbles way too many times and a 64% college career completion rate isn’t all that impressive. Tyrod Taylor might still have a shot to start under center, but his chances have clearly diminished with Herbert on the team. He has 54 career TD passes versus 20 interceptions, while adding 16 rushing TDs to his resume. Taylor’s best years were with the Bills from 2015 to 2017. Over that time span, he completed 774-of-1236 passes (62.6%) with 51 TD passes and 16 picks. He helped Buffalo reach the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. He tends to get blamed for being too conservative. He does limit the turnovers, but throwing 51 touchdown passes in 44 games in Buffalo was far from breathtaking. After a bad experience in Cleveland in 2018 and not playing in 2019, can Taylor revive his career? It seems pretty doubtful. He makes for a great backup QB, though. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) Melvin Gordon left for Denver, which leaves the door wide open for Austin Ekeler to take over as the clear-cut #1 back. Ekeler was excellent in both facets of the game: as a runner and as a receiver. For the second straight year, he rushed for about 550 yards with 3 TDs on the ground. However, he did a lot more damage through the air by catching a jaw-dropping 92 balls out of 108 targets, which included 8 receiving TDs and an extremely good 10.8 yards-per-catch average. The undrafted runner from Western State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry thus far in his three years in the big league. This figure is likely to go down now that he’ll be the workhorse back, but he’s expected to get a lot more rushing attempts. Gordon’s departure inserts Justin Jackson into the #2 RB role. He was picked in the 7th round of the 2018 draft and his main problem has been staying healthy. He missed three games in his rookie season and nine more the following year. In both cases, he rushed for close to 200 yards. It’s unclear what Jackson can bring to the table due to his limited time on the field. Based on his draft status it’s hard to expect great things, but the jury is still out about his future. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) This position was dominated by two players: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. All other guys caught less than 10 passes. You can’t say enough about Keenan Allen. He’s just a super reliable target. He was often the victim of the injury bug in the past, but he’s now played all 16 games in each of the last three years. During this time period, he has been extremely consistent by averaging 101 receptions for 1,263 yards and 6 TDs. He will be entering his age-28 campaign, so he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Mike Williams was the #7 overall selection in the 2017 draft out of Clemson. His numbers have increased each year, except the TD output which inexplicably dropped from 10 to 2 last year. Williams had a whopping 20.4 yards-per-catch average, second-best in the league behind Mecole Hardman. He battled through knee injuries throughout the year. The depth at the position is worrisome. The team drafted a couple of guys in later rounds: Joe Reed from Virginia and K.J. Hill from Ohio State. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) Hunter Henry is one of the top tight ends in the league when healthy. The problem has been just that: staying healthy. He tore his ACL during OTAs in 2018, which caused him to miss the entire regular season. Last year, he missed four additional games due to a knee injury but he still set career-highs in receptions (55) and receiving yards (652). He has scored 17 TDs in 41 career games, which amounts to 6.6 per 16 games. Virgil Green is the projected backup TE. He couldn’t get anything going even during Henry’s absence last year. It does not bode well for him. The former seventh-rounder has never caught more than 22 passes since joining the league nine years ago. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) Mike Pouncey’s first five years in the league were pretty good after being selected in the 1st round by the Dolphins nine years ago. Then, his PFF grades started to decline steadily. Things got worse last year when he suffered a career-threatening neck injury. He is on track to return in 2020, but his play has been below-average of late. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga is now on the wrong side of 30, but that didn’t scare the Chargers off. They signed him to a three-year deal worth $30 million. He will solidify the line without a doubt. He played very well last year in Green Bay; he secured the #15 spot out of 81 tackles based on PFF rankings. With Michael Schofield about to hit the free agent market, the Chargers acquired Trai Turner from the Panthers. Both received very identical PFF marks, but Turner is three years younger. He’s set to play left guard. Dan Feeney won the preseason battle for the left guard position during preseason, and he ended up starting all 16 games for the second year in a row. However, once again the quality of his play left a lot to be desired. He rated as the 64th-best guard out of 81 qualifiers. The Trent Scott experiment on Philip Rivers’ blind side was a huge failure last year. He was atrocious. Can Trey Pipkins be the answer at left tackle? The third-round pick from last year didn’t play many snaps last year, so it’s hard to evaluate. Or will it be Sam Tevi taking over at this key position? He did play left tackle as a junior with the Utah Utes. The 6th rounder has never received a PFF grade above 60 in his three-year career, so it’s hard to get excited about him. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE Despite all the criticism around Philip Rivers, he still threw for more than 4,600 yards. Can Justin Herbert and/or Tyrod Taylor do better? I doubt it. Also, am I the only one worrying about the depth at many positions on offense? Instead of having a nice Gordon-Ekeler duo at running back, the team must now rely on unproven Justin Jackson as the backup runner. At wide receiver, what happens if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams gets hurt? If Hunter Henry misses time at tight end, the team must turn to Virgil Green. We’re talking about HUGE talent dropoff between the starters and the backups at those positions. At least the team upgraded its offensive line, but not that much. I like the additions of Bulaga and Turner, but Okung and Schofield left. To me, that represents a small net gain for the team. Overall, I believe this unit suffers a small downgrade over 2019. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) All four guys receiving the most playing time on the interior of the line last year received poor PFF grades. Justin Jones finished 93rd, Brandon Mebane 112th, Damion Square 73rd and Jerry Tillery 114th out of 114 qualifiers. That’s awful. Two of those players are now off the team: Mebane (who turned 35) and Square. Neither of those losses represent a blow to the defense. Justin Jones improved slightly from his rookie to his sophomore year, but he’ll need to take a bigger leap in his third year. The former third-round pick out of N.C. State has not been very impressive thus far. As for Tillery, he was the #28 overall pick from the 2019 draft. It’s too early to call him a bust, but ranking dead last among all DLs can hardly be viewed as a successful season. He posted two sacks, but was awful against the run. The Chargers hope to boost the position with the acquisition of Linval Joseph. The 10-year veteran received high marks from 2015 to 2017, but his play deteriorated a little bit in the past two years. Granted, he still ranked as the 42nd-best interior defenders out of 114 guys last year. He’ll be playing his age-32 campaign, so hopefully his play won’t drop even further. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are the team’s clear-cut sack leaders. They recorded 11.5 and 7 sacks respectively last year, while the third-best turned out to be just 2.5 by Desmond King. Ouch. Bosa is a beast. Plain and simple. Bosa had 10.5, 12.5, 5.5 and 11.5 sacks during his first four years in the NFL. The 5.5 sacks picked up in 2018 were obtained in seven games; if you project those numbers into a full 16-game season, that equates to 12.5. As can be seen, he’s been very consistent. Ingram’s sack output has decreased a little bit recently. After posting 10.5, 8.0 and 10.5 from 2015 to 2017, he got exactly 7 sacks in each of the last two years. He remains clearly an above-average edge rusher and likely has a gas left in the tank at 31 years old. Uchenna Nwosu will continue to be a rotational player in this defense. He played 37% of the snaps and the former second-rounder has 5.5 sacks in two years. 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Thomas Davis provided quality play, especially coming from a 36-year-old linebacker. The team still decided to cut ties with him in order to create cap space and to get younger at the position. The team has three guys who all played between 37% and 39% of the snaps last year: Drue Tranquill, Kyzir White and Denzel Perryman. Tranquill was picked in the 4th round of last year’s draft and he enjoyed a very respectable rookie season. He ended up as the #25 LB out of 89 players, based on PFF marks. He is a good candidate to improve his game since he converted from safety to linebacker just three years ago. White is another former fourth-rounder, but he was taken a year earlier. He has earned 65.6 and 66.6 PFF grades in his first two seasons. His 2019 grade is actually identical to Tranquill’s. Perryman is unlikely to become a full-time starter in the NFL. He has yet to establish himself as a true starter in five years, so all signs point towards the former second-rounder to end up no more than a reserve player. The Chargers have added two pieces to the group: free agent Nick Vigil and Kenneth Murray via the draft. Vigil is no better than what the Chargers already had. As a matter of fact, he has earned weaker marks. He will still get a shot at the starting lineup considering his experience. With the 23rd overall selection, the Chargers drafted Kenneth Murray out of Oklahoma. The kid plays with great passion and he started at middle linebacker with the Sooners at 17 years old, which is quite impressive! Murray can literally fly on the field; he’s a playmakers who’s willing to take some risks. His style leads to many tackles for a loss. He needs to get better at reading plays and shedding blockers, however. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Casey Hayward is among the league’s top cover corners. He graded as the third-best CB in the NFL last season, according to PFF rankings. He has 22 interceptions in eight years and figures to have another productive season in 2020. He hasn’t missed a single game in six years! Desmond King is most effective in the middle of the field as a slot corner. Strangely enough, the Chargers signed Chris Harris, formerly of the Broncos, who also butters his bread in that position. It remains to be seen how to team juggles with these two guys. Both received above-average grades despite subpar years compared to previous seasons. How does Michael Davis fit in the mix? He could be the odd man out. He did pick up his first two interceptions of his young career after signing as an undrafted free agent in 2017, but he wasn’t particularly good. 3.5 Safeties (S) Derwin James missed the first 11 games last season. His presence was sorely missed on the field. The #17 overall pick from the 2018 draft enjoyed a spectacular rookie season with 105 tackles, 3 interceptions and 3.5 sacks. Now with a clean bill of health, James projects to play a big role in 2020. The other starting safety is Rayshawn Jenkins. He’s not nearly as good as his fellow teammate. He racked up the first three picks of his career last year, but he only managed to obtain the 60th spot among 87 safeties, according to PFF grades. He has yet to have a big impact, and he’s unlikely to do. The team lost some nice depth when Adrian Phillips left for New England. The #3 safety will likely be either Roderic Teamer or sixth-round pick Alohi Gilman. You don’t want either of them to start, so the Chargers must cross their fingers that neither James nor Jenkins gets hurt. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE How will the 2020 Chargers defense fare compared to the 2019’s group? The team upgraded the interior of the line a little bit with the addition of Linval Joseph. Tackle leader Thomas Davis is gone, while the organization acquired Nick Vigil and drafted Kenneth Murray. Vigil isn’t a solid linebacker, so Chargers fans must hope for Murray to develop quickly, or perhaps see Drue Tranquill elevate his game. Getting Chris Harris at corner is another good, albeit not spectacular, addition to the team. However, losing Adrian Phillips will put the Chargers in trouble if one of their two starting safeties get hurt. Los Angeles allowed the 14th fewest points in the league last year. I expect them to remain around this spot in 2020. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to win 8 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Chargers won more or less than 8 games.
Here are the results:
OVER 8 WINS
UNDER 8 WINS
Tip: Bet UNDER 8 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +12.1% Rank: 23rd-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -135 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Chargers’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -2.5 vs ATL, -6.5 vs CAR, -5 vs DEN, -7 vs JAX, +7 vs KC, +4.5 vs LV, 0 vs NE, -4 vs NYJ.
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) has risengreatly in popularity in recent time. With many factors (including Covid) raising awareness around ESG it would appear there has never been a better time to invest in thismarket trend/values (besides maybe six months ago). Government subsidies,decarbonization,climate change,industrial/infrastructure upgrades, technological advancements,ESG popularity,greenwashing and police brutality are but a few of the catalysts favouring ESG focused companies (ETFs, funds and SPACs like SPAQ/SOAC). The recent growth in EV market,solar stocks,renewable energy, Tesla, theJuneteenth stock’sand thegreen energy market (including SPACs - NKLA SHLL SPAQ) are but a few of the benefiters of this “movement” to date. It’s not just daytrading millennials (beckys/RH) who love this stuff but hedge funds are also benefiting from this trend (that is here to stay). It might be a personal belief of mine coupled with my passion for environmentalism but market trends do not lie (although can pop) – and if I can profit from this, why not? SPAQSHLLSOACFMCIBMRGHCCHNKLA BLNK DGLY SOLO EVSI NIO UONE BYFC FMCI BYND RUN WKHS TSLASHRM.. - a few quick/recent examples of companies with strong ESG verticals absolutely crushing the market. I watched the rise of DKNG (Atlanta fan haha) and NKLA (no product lol) but took a pass because I didn’tfully understandSPACs at the time - don’t be that guy.. Furthermore, ESG funds tend to outperform traditional investments (during downturns - like covid – and some SPACswere a safe haven (because of something called Escrow). It seems like we need a SPAC ETFESG focused on some of the above mentioned.. more like needed it six months ago (imagine the returns $$$)?? Very Basic (and inconclusive without further) Market Research: https://preview.redd.it/67m3itponva51.png?width=548&format=png&auto=webp&s=b54b45c60f193d10497d083b8fe48f10a99fa1be https://preview.redd.it/02f5mfjpnva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=45d491986dfef9b679cf2b394fddc53e83446437 https://preview.redd.it/g8f9ronqnva51.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb8e19903d0c8ed4553fc077babc251289975aea ![img](1cqt9q0rnva51 " ") https://preview.redd.it/xvu3qj0snva51.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=66bf7b398ae3673f4a48f3afa84dfaeafb34981d https://preview.redd.it/5hs57mstnva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2f83830413fd05281870b02741f668f719010f5 https://preview.redd.it/qq9tuekunva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=2824c94c9fcc096d2c379842d4d7bddea1584191 https://preview.redd.it/vaea1p6vnva51.png?width=508&format=png&auto=webp&s=74934a581fe32c1059a45d031d8b45341a3cd5c1 ** all info sourced in links** “A poll … by JP Morgan of 50 global institutions with $12.9 trillion under management found that 71% of respondents felt the economic shock of Covid-19 would increase awareness and actions globally to tackle climate change and “high impact, high probability” events like it. “Over the long run, COVID-19 could prove to be a major turning point for ESG investing,” said Jean-Xavier Hecker and Hugo Dubourg, co-heads of ESG and Sustainability at JP Morgan. “ https://www.barrons.com/articles/spartan-fisker-spac-electric-vehicle-stocks-51594646511?mod=hp_INTERESTS_technology&refsec=hp_INTERESTS_technology The ESG SPAC Space: There are a few (openly) ESG focused SPACs right now - SOAC is arguably the best. When you invest in a SPAC remember – you are investingin the team ie management, UW, legal and institutional backing (follow the money) C.R.E.A.M. Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corp.SOAC Structure: 345m - 100% still in Trust18mo term – I like the short term (maybe we see a CCXX or BMRG early announcement)IPO May 6 2020 – Love the confidence of IPOing in the face of Covid½ Warrant/UnitCitigroup running the books soloKirkland and Ellis & Davis Polk and Wardwell are lawyers involvedCrescent term threshold of $9.2 Business Proposal: “We believe that there are significant, attractive investment opportunities that exist within industries that benefit from strong Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) profiles. While investing in ESG covers a broad range of themes, we are focused on evaluating suitable targets that have existing environmental sustainability practices or that may benefit, both operationally and economically, from our management team’s commitment and expertise in executing such practices. We believe our management team’s experience allows us to evaluate targets in industries such as manufacturing (including auto, building materials), chemicals, services (including waste, environmental, construction), logistics (including transportation, distribution), technology (hardware, software, devices), agriculture (including biofuels) and energy (with focus on renewable generation, utility services, energy efficiency/management), among others. Furthermore, our target universe could include companies undergoing a transition to increase their environmental sustainability profiles, reflecting an opportunity to bring environmentally sustainable practices to companies that may not have historically been focused on environmental sustainability. We believe there is a wide array of companies undergoing this “brown-to-green” transition in our target universe. Companies in our target universe tend to have stable growth rates and would greatly benefit from access to public market capital.” Management: “The SOAC management teamhas extensive experience in operating and managing sustainability initiatives within a wide range of companies and industries throughout the U.S.” “Scott Honour (the one and only**) serves as the Chairman of our board of directors**. Mr. Honour has over 30 years of private equity investment experience and has been involved in over 100 transactions totalling over $20 billion in transaction value. Mr. Honour is Managing Partner of Northern Pacific Group (“NPG”), a private equity firm, which he co-founded in 2012. Prior to that, Mr. Honour was at The Gores Group, a Los Angeles based private equity firm, for 10 years, serving as Senior Managing Director and one of the firm’s top executives. During his time at The Gores Group, the firm raised four funds, totaling $4 billion in aggregate, and made over 35 investments. Mr. Honour also served on the investment committee for The Gores Group. Prior to joining The Gores Group, Mr. Honour was a Managing Director at UBS Investment Bank from 2000 to 2002 and was an investment banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette from 1991 to 2000. Mr. Honour began his career at Trammell Crow Company in 1988. Mr. Honour has served on the board of directors of numerous public and private companies including Solar Spectrum Holdings LLC, Anthem Sports & Entertainment Inc., 1st Choice Delivery, LLC, United Language Group, Inc., Renters Warehouse LLC, Real Dolmen (REM:BB) and Westwood One, Inc. (formerly Nasdaq: WWON), and is a co-founder of Titan CNG LLC and YapStone Inc. Mr. Honour earned a B.S. and B.A., cum laude, in Business Administration and Economics from Pepperdine University and an M.B.A. in Finance and Marketing from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. David Quiram serves as our Chief Financial Officer. Dr. Quiram has over 20 years of leadership experience in technology, strategy and finance organizations with a deep understanding of the chemicals, emerging technology, bioscience and energy sectors. Previously, Dr. Quiram served as Head of Financial Planning and Analysis and Tax at GenOn Energy (“GenOn”) from 2017 until 2019 where he was responsible for standing up the financial and administrative functions of GenOn as a stand-alone entity from NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG). Prior to that, Dr. Quiram served as Head of Investments for Enterprise Services of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE) from 2014 until 2017 where he directed investments into products and services. From 2010 to 2014, Dr. Quiram was with Accenture (NYSE: ACN) as a Senior Manager in their Strategy practice focused on transforming utilities, independent power producers, and energy retailers. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Quiram worked at multiple roles at TXU Energy starting in finance and later served as Vice President of Retail Pricing and Procurement where he led the pricing and hedging for TXU Energy’s retail portfolio. Dr. Quiram began his career at McKinsey & Co where he worked as an Engagement Manager from 2001 until 2005, and as a Research Scientist at DuPont (NYSE: DD) from 1998 to 2001. Dr. Quiram earned a B.S. in Chemical Engineering with Highest Distinction from the University of Virginia, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Rick Gaenzle has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Gaenzle has over 30 years of private equity investment and corporate finance experience; he is the founder and currently serves as a Managing Director of Gilbert Global Equity Capital, L.L.C., the principal investment advisor to Gilbert Global Equity Partners, L.P. and related entities, a $1.2 billion leveraged buyout and private equity fund. Mr. Gaenzle has spent the last twenty-eight years at Gilbert Global and its predecessor entity, completing over 110 direct equity investments, co-investments and add-on acquisitions for portfolio companies. Previously, Mr. Gaenzle was a Principal of Soros Capital L.P., the principal venture capital and leveraged equity entity of the Quantum Group of Funds and a principal advisor to Quantum Industrial Holdings Ltd. Prior to joining Soros Capital, Mr. Gaenzle held various positions at PaineWebber Inc. Mr. Gaenzle currently serves as a Senior Advisor to Impact Delta, an impact-investing and impact-measurement advisory firm; an Operating Partner of NPG; and Chairman of Lake Street Homes, a single-family rental investment vehicle. Mr. Gaenzle holds a B.A. from Hartwick College and an M.B.A. from Fordham University. Isaac Barchas has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Barchas is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Research Bridge Partners (“RBP”), a socially-driven investment company, which he founded in 2016. RBP uses both concessionary and nonconcessionary investment to create startup companies based on university research and advance those companies into the venture capital markets. Prior to founding RBP, Mr. Barchas led the Austin Technology Incubator (“ATI”) at The University of Texas at Austin from 2006 to 2016. ATI’s Clean Energy Incubator was the first university clean tech incubation program in the United States. During Mr. Barchas’ leadership, ATI companies raised over $1 billion in the capital markets. Mr. Barchas joined the university from McKinsey & Co., where he worked in the Chicago, Sydney, Auckland, and Dallas offices, from 1996 to 2006 and served on the leadership teams of McKinsey’s North American Healthcare Practice and Global Organization Practice. Mr. Barchas has served on multiple private company boards and on philanthropic boards including Pecan Street Inc., the largest analytically-focused clean energy and climate data consortium in the United States, where he was a founding board member. Mr. Barchas earned a J.D. (honors) and M.A. (Century Fellowship) from The University of Chicago. He received an A.B. from Stanford University (honors and Phi Beta Kappa). Justin Kelly has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Kelly is currently the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Winslow Capital Management, LLC (“Winslow Capital”), Nuveen’s center of excellence for growth investing. Mr. Kelly also serves as lead portfolio manager on the firm’s flagship U.S. Large Cap Growth Strategy. Mr. Kelly has been with Winslow Capital for over two decades and has transformed the firm from a single strategy, niche investment firm to a thought leader globally in growth equity investing with four strategies. Prior to joining Winslow Capital in 1999, Mr. Kelly was an equity analyst at Investment Advisors in Minneapolis. Prior to that, Mr. Kelly worked at Prudential Bache, from 1993 to 1996 as Investment Banker, and Salomon Brothers, from 1996 to 1997 as Investment Banker. Mr. Kelly earned a B.S. in Finance/Investments from Babson College. Our management team will be supported by NPG, a technology and business services focused private equity firm based in Wayzata, Minnesota. NPG has considerable experience investing in ESG related portfolio companies with community impact, workplace diversity and integrity, and environmental resource management acting as cornerstones to key investment decisions. NPG has offset its carbon footprintto net zero, achievingCarbonNeutral® status. The partners of NPG have been involved in acquisitions, financings and advisory transactions totaling over $20 billion in transaction value and have significant experience investing across a variety ofeconomic cycles and a track record of identifying high-quality assets, businesses and management teams with significant resources, capital and optimization potential. We believe that we will benefit from NPG’s prior experience.” PRESS RELEASE ESG RESOURCES CEO BREIF INTERVIEW https://www.greenspac.com/ceo-scott-leonard-explains-why-now-is-the-right-time-for-a-spac/ SPAC Risks: SPAC’s tend to be 50/50 after merger IMOPotential EV or ESG bubble might be formingDoes anyone have an example of a SPAC in the last 15 years (or later) that has liquidated and didn’t pay out?(I honestly haven’t looked)I see 0.1% risk in SPAC shares/units long term (thanks to escrow) Final Thoughts: Future (disruptive) ESG companies (like PureCycle) might want to try and avoid previous mistakes (like UBER) by going the public via the SPAC route... Its kind of a thing these days (thank you Covid) and helps them to make more money faster, price their deal properly/more efficiently and gain (those all-important wall street) connections – I see you SPAQ .. also anyone else seespacsdrop in theWSJ? Completely speculative possible ESG SPAC’s – IPOC/IPOB, HCAC/JIH, GMHI/NPA, SBE/ALUS/TDAC, **KCAC/**SSPK, or JWS/PTSH? Who else are we missing?? Who else will pivot like SHLL, SPAQ, HCCH or get a BlackRock PIPE?? Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and I have positions in some of the above. TLDR: ESG trend is here to stay and SOAC is a ESG SPAC with great a great team **check out the discord link for more info, resources and tools**
Part 3/3 My Introduction to a Professional Sports Betting Syndicate
I appreciate you making it this far. I know nowadays reading isn’t the best form of consuming content but for detailed stories I don’t see any other feasible way. Plus I doubt many people want to look at my ugly face lol. Hope you enjoy the final part.
“Okay here’s how it’s gonna go kid”, Mario said as we discussed how and where the information would flow. “I don’t need to know all that other bullshit about team, position or type of injury, less is more. Player name and injury status, that’s it”. Mario was a pit bull, he dealt with all the information sources and I was just one of many, but I'd like to imagine I was a valuable one. I was to deal with him and only him and the next few days we were to run test trials to work out any kinks. I don’t remember the first injury ping I got during the test trial period but I do remember the first injury report sent when we went live for real money [Tony Parker] - Doubtful. It was a very weird feeling that I can’t really describe whenever a ping came through, a mixture between excitement, fear and anxiety. I eventually got used to it but it took about a month. The biggest issue for me during the testing period seems simple but it was copying the text on the ping I received and pasting it and sending it from my personal phone from the messenger app. I was always concerned about leaving a trail on my work computer which was a desktop that other co-workers used when I wasn’t there. As easy as it sounds to copy and paste, at the beginning my hands would be shaky and any mis-clicks cost valuable seconds and remember I couldn’t do my job of posting it at work until 15 seconds after I sent it to Mario, so during the trial period it was taking me roughly 35 to 40 seconds to post reports for my job, that’s a considerable delay. I had to be quicker sending it to Mario because the faster I do that the faster I’m able to post it for my work. Trial period over and now it’s for real. [Danny Green] - Out. [Wesley Mathews] - Questionable. One by one I was sending the reports. One time attempting to be quick I copied the ping something like this EM-[Marc Gasol]-Shoulder-OUT and I immediately got a call from Mario who was pissed. “I don’t care if the player sprained his dick, it’s player and status, that’s it! I remember thinking jeez wtf. I found out later it had something to do with how they programmed it on their end with the auto-bet software, so any extra characters or information other than player and status would mess it up and they would miss getting the bets down, even if it was an extra . Or - it would mess it up, or at least that’s what I was told. The reports I sent him would be automatically inputted into their system, it was all automated. Mario made it clear that any pings I sent that weren’t formatted correctly or if by game time the status didn’t hold up I wouldn’t be paid for. Him being pissed off made sense to me after awhile, a lot of money is on the line and this is their full-time job and missing out on even one report could potentially be the difference of a winning or losing week. Writing this has brought back so many memories, like the time at work we were due for a schedule change, they like to change the schedule every 6 months. I had only been doing the pings for about a month and a half and a schedule change would fuck this all up if I was moved to mornings. I paid my co-worker $200 to tell management he prefers mornings and of course I told them nights work best for me. I was in the clear for another 6 months. I remember checking my mail and seeing a yellow envelope, my first payment from George, close to $10,000 all cash, payments got sent out in the mail on the 14th monthly. What was also interesting is it came with a breakdown of each ping I sent. Ex; Based on 22 days / Total Reports 31 2- accurately reported players OUT 3- accurately reported players Probable etc etc Some weeks there would be no key players or starters with any breaking injury news, some weeks there would be several. It could only be breaking news so if a coach has a press conference and it’s revealed that a player would be out the next 3 games that didn’t help me. Or if news came out while I wasn’t at work it didn’t help me. It’s funny even now when I see breaking news for a player injury I think about the pings and how many points that player means to the line. So I’m about 3 months in now and I’m basically hoping players get hurt. I’ve received about 4 payments because the first one was prorated because I started halfway through a month. Money was rolling in. I remember talking to my mom and she had just found out she had to pay $3,200 on her annual taxes. She was crying when I came over and handed her 32 100 dollar bills. My sister wanted new furniture for his first apartment, I told her to pick it out and let me know how much. My oldest brother who had always disapproved of my lifestyle and would often say “you are going to hell in a handbasket”, (never knew what that meant, still don’t.) He was going through an ugly divorce and was saying how it kills him to write that bitch a check each month and that he wishes he could just pay it all at once for the year and not have to deal with her. I asked him how much. Christmas I gave my two brothers, my sister and mother 1K each, no card, no envelope. Looking back I did some really tacky shit lol Look everyone I made it! It’s cringeworthy now being older thinking about some of the shit. If you were 26-27 years old and single and money wasn’t an issue what would you do? Well that’s what I did, anything and everything. I would book flights to Vegas 1 day in advance just because on a Thursday I felt like going the next day, I wouldn’t even bring clothes I would buy them when I landed. Having money wasn’t totally new to me because I had made a lot of money as a bookie but having this much money coming in was new and all I had to do was go to work and click some buttons. You know how the saying goes, “easy come, easy go” that’s what money was like to me. Another saying is “All good things come to an end”. It’s been about 6 months into this arrangement and I was now not only reporting injuries to George and his team but on certain days and even some full weeks he had me sending the reports to other betting groups. I was now interacting with not just one betting syndicate but 3 of them. There are probably thousands of sports betting groups in the country but there are only a handful of consistently successful betting groups that are profitable year after year and I had their ears. The top groups tend to work together. Every source I currently have and use now originated in some way, shape or form from these groups that I sent pings too. I’m not saying I’m buddies with the heads of these groups but I know a lot of current and former employees that have come and gone with these groups and I’ve always made sure to stay in contact. None of the money I made is still with me but the people I met and still talk to once in a while is something I value. It's a two way street, I wouldn’t be much use to them if I just constantly asked for info. I have to return the favor as well, that’s why when I discovered the SuperBowl commercial prop edge, it was these people who were the first to get it, after I bet it of course. (SuperBowl Prop Story is in the #Betting-Strategy-Advice channel in The Betting Network). I’m constantly looking for ways I can help them even after all this time because you never know when or how it can come back to you. In total I basically reported these injuries for about 8-9 months and had started reporting some NCAAB key players injuries. I managed this without any major backlash from my company. Dealt with a few issues here and there with the betting groups but nothing major. After a while I realized a big reason for my company not noticing anything was that 80% of all pings were reported right away as normal, although the 20% that got delayed were the key players and starters. A couple customer complaints were about all that happened and when that did I would make sure to promptly send out MIL-G-[Ramon Sessions]-Questionable with no delay. The way this arrangement ended is anticlimactic and it was something out of any of our control. I managed to avoid schedule changes and even declined a small promotion within the company and a couple outside job opportunities that if I showed any type of interest I could’ve got, all in order to keep this $15.75 hr job. But everything happens for a reason, the company I worked for sold its majority ownership and merged with 2 other companies, this resulted in my department being dissolved and I ultimately ended up leaving the company altogether shortly after. Everyone involved was crushed when I told them it was over, especially one of the groups George affiliated with because they only got about 2 months out of it. The good news was the connections were made and we all continued to work together in different ways but nothing will probably be as lucrative as the ping arrangement. I Hope you guys enjoyed this story because I enjoyed going down memory lane. I actually texted a few of the guys involved in it last night and we talked about how great it was and how it would be impossible these days to do what we did for many reasons. It was great while it lasted that’s for sure. Fin PS This was a little different from what I normally post which is more focused on sports betting education. I decided to share this story because of the overwhelming feedback I got with The Betting Network community. My focus is to help educate sports bettors, it’s important to know there are no shortcuts to being a successful sports bettor. I have over 25 lessons posted in TBN community on various topics, investing in yourself and learning as much as you can is the only way you stand a chance at becoming a successful sports bettor and even that alone isn’t enough, you must have some natural attributes like discipline and patience’s if you are serious about learning and willing to put in the required work and invest in yourself DM me and I can tell you how to join The Betting Network community, I do a free 3 day trial and it’s only $7 a month after that. Weekly lessons, game previews, mentorship program and I share not only my opinions on games but also opinions from some of the many sources within my network. Hope to see some of y’all in the community. Lefty
Will the Detroit Lions win OVER/UNDER 6.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
Will the Detroit Lions win OVEUNDER 6.5 games? By University Stats Prof! 1. Introduction After firing Jim Caldwell following a 9-7 record in 2017, the Lions posted a 6-10 in Matt Patricia’s first year as a head coach. Things got even worse last season with a 3-12-1 record. This is a critical year for Patricia. The team has talent for sure. If he does not right the ship, he may be gone sooner rather than later. 2. Regular Season Wins According to sportsbooks, the Detroit Lions are expected to win 6.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Lions won more or less than 6.5 games.
Here are the results:
OVER 6.5 wins
UNDER 6.5 wins
Tip: Bet UNDER 6.5 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +1.4% Rank: 31st-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +127 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Lions’ 16 regular season games: HOME: -1.5 vs CHI, +2 vs GB, -1 vs HOU, +1.5 vs IND, +2 vs MIN, +5.5 vs NO, +2.5 vs TB, -6 vs WAS. ROAD: +3 @ ARI, +4 @ ATL, +1 @ CAR, +5 @ CHI, +6.5 @ GB, -1.5 @ JAX, +7 @ MIN, +6 @ TEN. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. 3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 3.1 QUARTERBACKS (QB) I feel bad for Matthew Stafford. He has to be one of the best quarterbacks to have never won a playoff game. He’s 0-3 in the postseason and has played for many terrible teams in Detroit during his 11-year career. He had yet another good season in 2019. He finished as the 8th-best QB in the league based on PFF rankings. He missed half the season because of injuries, but still threw 19 TD passes versus 5 picks. Prior to last year, he had not missed a single start over eight seasons, which is unbelievable! He’s a durable and tough guy. David Blough and Jeff Driskel didn’t do very well in Stafford’s absence. That’s a big reason why the team led Driskel go, while acquiring backup Chase Daniel from the Bears. I was stunned to realize that after spending 10 years in the NFL, Daniel has only thrown 7 TDs and 5 interceptions (most of them in 2018 and 2019 with Chicago). He received decent grades from PFF and he looks to be a definitive improvement over Blough and Driskel. 3.2 RUNNING BACKS (RB) I like what I’ve been from Kerryon Johnson over his first two seasons in the NFL. In each of those years, the former running back from Auburn was on pace to be close to a 1,000 rushing yard season, but his pro career has been marred by injuries thus far. Beyond the stats, I thought he passed the eye test. Upon seeing him play several games, he looked like a good back. In his third year, the main goal will be to prove he can make it through a full season. Johnson received a 66.7 grade from PFF last year, which put him in the #37 spot out of 58 RBs. I believe he can make a nice jump in 2020. Bo Scarbrough finally saw some action last season. He did “okay”, but his main limitation is in the passing game. He’s not much of a receiver. He’s still a decent weapon to have when running between the tackles because of his big frame. J.D. McKissic was the opposte of Scarbrough; he is undersized, but a good pass catcher. He still managed to post a lofty 5.4 yard per carry average, while catching 34 balls. However, he left for Washington. Considering Detroit’s backfield was already crowded, drafting D’Andre Swift in the 2nd round was a puzzling move. It probably means the Lions will go with a committee approach with Johnson and Swift being the RB 1A and 1B. Swift is a smart RB who has good vision and runs with patience; he understands and evaluates block timing very well. He is also pretty good out of the backfield; he caught many passes in college and was tagged with just three drops across 73 receptions. 3.3 WIDE RECEIVERS (WR) Can you believe Kenny Golladay’s salary was under one million last year? What an astonishing bargain for the Lions! Golladay solidified his position as one of the top wideouts in the league by posting a second consecutive 1,000-yard season. He also doubled his TD production by catching 11 last year versus 5 the year before. He has a great combination of size and athleticism, which allows him to stretch the field and make contested catches in traffic. His numbers have the potential to increase even more if Stafford can stay healthy for the whole season, and considering Golladay is only 26 years old. Marvin Jones posted a very nice 62-779-9 stat line despite missing three games. He has been a steady producer in this league, both with the Bengals and now with the Lions. A very reliable guy. Danny Amendola has never been a top wideout: his career best is 689 receiving yards back in 2010. However, having him as your #3 receiver is a nice luxury. The main concern pertains to his age, as he is now 34. His level of play has not deteriorated yet, but we should keep an eye on this situation. The team added even more depth by signing a younger guy: Geronimo Allison. The former Packer showed flashes during an injury-shortened 2018 season, but he really fell flat last year by catching just 34 balls despite a wide open #2 WR spot in Green Bay. He received poor grades from PFF and finished as the #111 receiver out of 122 qualifiers. 3.4 TIGHT ENDS (TE) Was T.J. Hockenson’s rookie season a success? The jury is still out on that one. Everyone got overly excited about his first career game, where he caught 6 passes for 131 yards and 1 TD. However, he surpassed 50 yards just once in his final 11 games (an ankle injury put him on injured reserve for the last four contests). He was the #8 overall pick in the 2019 draft, so the expectations were high for the former Hawkeye. The adaptation to the NFL-level is not always easy for rookie tight ends, so let’s cut him some slack. He is a candidate to improve his numbers greatly in his second season, especially with Stafford back under center. Both Logan Thomas and Jesse James caught 16 passes last year. Thomas left for Washington, which leaves James as the clear-cut #2 TE. He is an adequate backup for Detroit. 3.5 OFFENSIVE LINE (OL) Right tackle Rick Wagner provided respectable protection to his quarterbacks during his first six seasons, but his play tailed off dramatically last year. The team released him and signed Halapoulivaati Vaitai to replace him. Vaitai has only started 20 games in four seasons, but he played pretty well in spots with the Eagles last year and that earned him a jaw-dropping five-year, $50 million contract. That seems like a high price for a career backup, but he did grade as the 22nd-best tackle among 81 qualifiers in 2019. We’ll see if the Lions made a wise investment or not. The other four starters all received good marks from PFF: Taylor Decker (19th out of 81 tackles), Frank Ragnow (6th out of 37 centers), Graham Glasgow (12th out of 81 guards) and Joe Dahl (27th out of 81 guards). Yet, the team finished below-average in terms of sacks allowed (19th out of 32 teams). The bad news is Detroit also lost Graham Glasgow via free agency. He signed with the Denver Broncos. He has obtained grades above 70 by PFF in each of its past three seasons. His replacement is unlikely to match that performance. One potential replacement is third round selection Jonah Jackson. He needs to improve as a run blocker since he tends to struggle sustaining blocks. On the other hand, he’s more comfortable in passing situations, while also excelling at processing blitzes. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Lions scored the 18th most points in the NFL last season. That output is much more likely to go up than down. Except on the offensive line, we notice a potential upgrade over the 2019 season at all positions. At quarterback, having Stafford back is obviously a big boost. Also, Chase Daniel is a better back than the Blough-Driskel duo. At running back, Kerryon Johnson missed half the season. He also has two years of experience under his belt and is ready to explode. Rookie D’Andre Swift offers an additional potential deadly weapon. Adding Geronimo Allison to an already talent WR group won’t hurt. Golladay-Jones-Amendola will provide good targets for Stafford. Hockenson is now more familiar with the NFL speed and it was reported he played through some pain before landing on injured reserve. Again, an improvement seems a more likely scenario than a regression here. As mentioned above, the OL play will be a source of concern, though. Replacing Wagner with Vaitai could be a plus. However, Glasgow’s loss will be difficult to compensate. Still, overall I can see the Lions jumping to the 7th-12th rank on offense in 2020. You read this right; the Lions could have the number 7 offense in the NFL. They have a very talented and underrated group (with nice depth at all positions!). Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate upgrade 4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 4.1 DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (DL) The interior of the line has been completely revamped. That may not be a bad thing. Both Damon Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson are gone after a subpar year. They both graded as below-average last year, which was a big surprise in the case of Harrison. He obtained a grade above 90 as a run defender in each of its past four seasons, but cratered to 63.2 last year. What the heck happened? The newcomers are Danny Shelton, formerly of the Patriots, and Nick Williams, coming over from the Bears. Shelton has done very well in all five of his seasons in the league and is entering his prime. He’s a solid addition and he’s good a plugging up running lanes. I’m not so high on the Williams acquisition, though. He didn’t get good grades throughout his career until last year where he finally got some starts and posted six sacks. He could be a one-year wonder. He had been a journeyman thus far and is a former 7th-round pick. Mike Daniels is also off the team. The former didn’t do much in his lone season in Motor City. 4.2 DEFENSIVE ENDS (DE) / EDGE (ED) Both Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard recorded seven sacks last season. Kennard left for Arizona; his leadership as team captain will also be missed. Flowers is a vital piece of this defense. He will enter his age-27 campaign and he has racked up between 6.5 and 7.5 sacks every year since 2016. Who will step up in Kennard’s absence? Romeo Okwara will need to come back to his 2018 form, where he posted 7.5 sacks. Only getting 1.5 last year was a big disappointment. Another alternative may come from Romeo’s younger brother, Julian, who was taken in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. Considering Julian’s speed and strength (the bull rush remains his favorite move), you would have expected him to produce more in college. He still needs to learn good techniques to beat experienced offensive linemen. 4.3 LINEBACKERS (LB) Jarrad Davis, Christian Jones and Jahlani Tavai all played a bit above 50% of the defensive snaps last year. They ranked as the #84, #82 and #44 linebackers out of 89 guys. That’s bad. The position will get a lift with the acquisition of Jamie Collins. He led the Patriots with seven sacks last season, which was a career-high for him. I don’t mean to be disrespectful for him, but I believe he’s overrated. He enjoyed great 2014 and 2015 seasons in New England, but his played tailed off big time in his time away from the Patriots in 2016, 2017 and 2018. He came back with a pretty good season when reuniting with Belichick’s squad last year, but will he revert back to mediocre play in Detroit? Super Bowl champion Reggie Ragland also joins Matt Patricia’s team. He adds depth to the team and may play behind Jarrad Davis. 4.4 CORNERBACKS (CB) Last year, the trio made of Darius Slay, Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman saw the field pretty often. Slay and Melvin are gone to other teams. Slay had a very bad year as opposed to his previous five, but that may have been an outlier. He’s 29 years old and he’s likely to rebound in Philly. He asked to be traded after fights over contract negotiations. Unlike Slay, Melvin won’t be missed too much. He was an undrafted guy who is more of a rotational corner. In order to alleviate Slay’s loss, the Lions signed Desmond Trufant, formerly of the Falcons. His best days are behind him, but he has never received a grade below 69.5 by PFF over his seven-year career, which is remarkable. Last year’s 70.3 grade put him as the 32nd-best corner out of 112 qualifiers. The team’s instant #1 corner is rookie Jefffrey Okudah, who was taken with the third overall selection of this year’s draft. He’s a true lockdown corner who is likely to perform at a high level right away. Over the last two seasons at Ohio State, he held every wideout he faced to fewer than 50 receiving yards. He also surrendered just two touchdowns during that time frame. Those are outstanding numbers! Okudah is a blue chip prospect whose mental makeup and physical traits are elite. 4.5 SAFETIES (S) Safeties Tracy Walker and Tavon Wilson led the team in tackles last year. They both played close to 75% of the snaps and obtained similar marks from PFF. They finished 22nd and 26th out of 87 safeties in the league. As of now, Wilson has yet to sign with a NFL team. He is open to re-signing with Detroit, but that has yet to happen. The team decided to upgrade the position by acquiring Duron Harmon, yet another ex-Patriot. He can play safety or as a corner; he is likely to be on the field often. He may not be the best against the run, but his skills in coverage are way above average. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE There’s been a lot of shuffling with this unit during the offseason. The biggest acquisitions are Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon, as well as #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah. The biggest losses are Damon Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson, Devon Kennard, Darius Slay and Rashaan Melvin. My own assessment of those moves is a moderate upgrade. However, I value continuity as a key factor in the NFL. Knowing how your teammates are going to react in game-time situations is important in such a fast sport like the NFL. Considering the impact of COVID-19 on offseason preparation, having numerous new faces will likely penalize offenses/defenses even more. Detroit’s defense finished 26th in points allowed last year. They will remain the team’s Achilles heel, but a significant improvement is doable. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate upgrade MOST LIKELY RECORD: 7-9 (based on the one-million simulated seasons using BetOnline’s 2020 point spreads) Tomorrow, I'll discuss the team whose ROI is 30th in the league; the New Orleans Saints! Thanks for reading, I hope you found it insightful! Professor MJ
My academic failures brought unforgivable shame to my parents
I am not sure if this is the right place as insaneparents does not let posts sooo here we goo... SO, let me give a bit of a background of where I come from and what type of person I am. I am a university student who did decently well in all of high school until university due to personal issues and usually had top grades across the border. I am of Indian descent so it goes untold the stereotypes that follow such as strict parents and getting good grades in sciences and math. I am definitely happy for some aspects of this as I have been brought up knowing nothing comes free without hard work and dedication to whatever I try to do whether it be in school, sports, or just about anything. Many Indian parents (not all of course) have the same mentality as well about life and careers and pass along these things to their children. In fact, I was blessed as my parents from middle school always said they would pay for everything in university and I would not have to worry about a thing as long as I was focused. Great. Now the problem. They have a way of making sure you get to what they think is best. They guilt-trip you, shame your very existence, or straight up rant to friends and family about how you're a sack of shit that's better of dead for not cleaning your dishes (true story). These unpleasant memories are abnormally quite frequent for me and has led me to despise them although I try very much to sympathize with their real intentions. But there comes to a point where absolutely, they definitely cross the border into a territory that should NEVER be crossed especially in this day and age. Now the story: Basically as I said earlier, academically, I do very well. I got into a pretty decent Engineering school following the end of high school quite easily which of course, parents like mine take for granted being engineers themselves. Alright cool, whatever. I ended up dating someone who I thought was my soulmate and half my life during first year and let's say things got out of hand. Her and I began having fights and began separating from each other and I did love her a lot at that time so it began to affect me greatly emotionally and eventually academically. There were nights where I just could not sleep and I started skipping assignments because I lost all hope. My parents were never the type to be someone to open up to so I could not tell them anything about my girlfriend in fear of literally getting deported back to India by them. I failed a lot of courses in my first year and her and I eventually broke up after she cheated on me and I ended up on a probationary year to see if I could get my grades back up. At that time, my interests had grown into computer science as I loved programming and software development and made many connections in that program. I was eventually forced to quit engineering because my grades were too low but it was a bittersweet moment as I got into the computing science program. I ended up joining some projects and clubs and now have a sweet internship going on during this whole COVID-19 thing. My parents hated it. They wanted me to apply to other universities because engineering was apparently the dream job and no one would recognize a "lowly science degree". I tried convincing them saying this is my passion and NO it is indeed a fairly demanding degree that pays well and has many opportunities. Playing the "goody two shoes parents", they said of course, it is your degree and your life...and proceeded to cut my tuition payments. When I confronted them that my tuition payment did not go through, they simply just said, yeah of course, you are in MY house eating MY food, you are free to do what you want but you gave to take care of it yourself. I couldn't even fight back. You see, they have a way of handling arguments where no matter what you say, you are always in the wrong. I just decided to swallow it up and proceeded with paying for it myself out of the little salary I got from my part time job. Then came the ego part that made me absolutely mad. Indian families are known to have really big parties and we invite guests or go over to other parties and meet friends and all. My parents stopped taking me to those. Apparently, I was a shame to them and it would be an absolute shame if they asked what I did and I said I switched programs. They did not want people knowing I was not doing engineering anymore and dropped to some "lowly program that's basically arts" (their words not mine. I have a great deal of respect for all studies). I argued with them about this saying OK I don't have to tell them I got kicked out of engineering but they said getting kicked out barely adds anymore salt to the wound of me doing something "useless" as sciences. Now just an hour ago I went for a jog and I get a message from my parents. Them > Don't come home, we have guests. Me > ??? why I can say hi Them > No. either be home by 5 mins or wait in the garage but be quiet I am so confused so I run home and ask them what is it for. Mom literally screams at me : I DON'T NEED TO TELL YOU WHY Me: alright whatever well let me know when I can come down to eat, I'm starving Mom: YEA I BET YOU ARE ALL YOU DO IS EAT AND WASTE TIME. BEING IN SCIENCES HAS MADE YOU LAZY. OBVIOUSLY WE DON'T WANT YOU DOWNSTAIRS WHEN THEY'RE HERE. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO TELL THEM WHEN THEY ASK HOW YOUR STUDIES ARE GOING. It has come to the point where they don't even want to acknowledge my existence to others because I'm apparently some shameful underachiever who won't follow their exact path. Apparently, I chose this path because I wanted an "easy way" in life and don't want to do the "hard and sincere" work that follows in engineering and because of that, it gives them every right to straight up disown me??! Honestly, it's not even the disown part that I care about, I lost the emotional touch we had a looong time ago. The entitled place that my parents think they are on compared to my "lowly ambitions" is the part that I wish I could get into their heads and tell how damn wrong they are. Anyways, thanks for listening to my rant as my stomach growls from hunger as I listen to them downstairs party away. Can't make a sound though!! Can't let remind the guests that their failure of a son exists away!!!! TL:DR: Suffered in first year and was forced to change programs from eng to computer science. Parents think low of science degree so I'm looked as a disgrace and have to go through the same thing as Harry Potter when guests come to his house.
INTJ: Stock Investor-Able to use their Ni-Te to evaluate future potential of a certain asset and use data to predict its functionality. Mostly value investors (Warren Buffet style). ENTJ: Startup CEO-They are attracted to new industries and fields where they can be pioneers,which startups provide. Mostly its tech or fintech startups where there is high potential for both huge profits and becoming well known in the media-achieving cult of personality. Te-Ni. INTP: Software Engineer-Extremely attracted to this field which provides them with constant need for analysis and tweaking the system,finding loopholes and being logically consistent-Ti. Also there is a lot of novelty and need to keep up with new technologies which feeds their Ne. ENTP: Stand-up Comedian-Somewhat stereotypical but nonetheless true because of the core need for clever understanding of both social,artistic and technical aspects of language,comedy and society. There are so many topics to be turned in to laughs and so many ways to look at the world through comedy which their Ne-Ti appreciates,also the social aspect of it with positive affirmation from others is a bonus for their Fe. ISTP: Sports Bettor- Perhaps a bit strange but take a moment to analyse. Most ISTPs are highly cerebral people and sports are full of data,metrics and mathematics to use to figure out a perfect match-Ti. This is in line with their pragmatic approach to life. Also adrenaline and the high of sports betting go great with ISTPs Se and their need for sensory stimulation. The ISTPs are able to achieve a practical goal of winning money through their clever use of data which also brings a sense of concretenes to this field.There is also lots of glamour and attention given to big bettors so that can feed their Se-Fe. ISFP: 3D Animator- ISFPs thrive in the artistic fields but much more than that they are very underrated at using their thinking to do their art. And animating requires a sharp eye and a knack for understanding space and body dynamics as well as an aptitude for detail and a certain flow of style. ISFPs are able to give their work meaning and beauty which can be achieved easily through animation since it is so visual. In general 3D animation needs patience,creativity and soul to truly bring characters to life which falls in line with ISFPs Fi-Se-Ni. ESTP: Professional Athlete-(NBA,NFL player...) - ESTPs are naturally very physical people in tune with their environment. They can become extremely good players at top leagues and this motivates them to become great at what they do. Also the attention and idolization of athletes boosts their ego and they love being the center of attention at the court. In short sports provide ESTPs with everything they want out of life- Action,fame,women and cocaine. Se-Ti to the max. ESFP: Prostitute...nah just kiding. Actor-Profession of acting has been a haven for ESFPs throughout history and many of the most famous actors were ESFPs. This field provides them with both glamorous lifestyle and fame they desire along with all the material posessions they want and also with becoming truly great at their craft and being in the moment,experiencing the emotion and wearing their character like a part of themselves which goes well with their Se and Fi need for authenticity. ESTJ: Lawyer- This field gives ESTJs a stable high source of income,prestige and respect of their peers along with the opportunity to advance their careers and solidify their skills. Deep down many ESTJs care about justice and law provides at least the opportunity to fight for it. It is also full of information long before written with pre-determined rules which sides well with their Si,but also needs creativity and in the moment thinking to truly be good-Ne. Law needs you to be objective and put your feelings aside which ESTJs do quite easily with their Te. ISTJ: Heart Surgeon-Perhaps an unusual choice but hear me out: ISTJs are detail oriented people to the max and this field needs that like no other,along with long education and a skyscraper amount of information to remember it appeals to ISTJs for many reasons like that. Also it can go well with their desire to help those in need and master their craft to the tiniest detail. Si-Te-Fi. ESFJ: Human Resource Manager- This job is made for ESFJs since they are so in sync to other people and they can get to motivate them,work trough their problems or simply cheer them up. But ESFJs are not just some cute creatures,they are very much strategic in their approach and can be very systematic in bringing out the best out of people Fe-Si. ISFJ: School Teacher- ISFJs are often looked down upon compared to some "smart" types,but ISFJs fulfill such a powerful role in our society. They as teachers provide most important education whilst following the school system of work Si and also managing to appeal to all students to form a small community of togetherness Fe. They will also employ many surprisingly innovative methods to make the student material easier to understand Ti-Ne. INFJ: Psychiatrist- You probably already knew I was gonna say that. But INFJs incredible insight and thorough understanding of other people's psyche can't be ignored,which makes them perfect as psychiatrists. They are able to go deep inside their patients minds all the while employing scientific measures to truly identify the sources of their pain Ni. INFJs don't shy from trying out many innovative methods and this thing we all like here (cognitive functions and mbti) was invented by an INFJ so...Anyway this field also gives INFJs space to truly sit with other people's emotions and feel them as if those emotions were their own Fe. In the end besides the curiosity psychiatry also gives INFJs the opportunity to help people and make them shine brighter. ENFJ: Non Profit CEO- ENFJs are similar to ENTJs in the regard that they also want to be pioneers except their goal is to ultimately improve people at large and give back to those in need. Of course this isn't the only thing attracting ENFJs to this field. Because they don't want to just help a couple of people,they want to improve the social system for everyone so that everyone or the majority can live well and not be opressed. Fe-Ni. ENFP: Fiction Writer- Another perhaps stereotypical typing,but ENFPs Ne-Fi combo goes so well with the imagination needed to write fiction,and truly good fiction at that. They will create so many great characters,plot-lines and twists that they may forget some important details-inferior Si. But with their wit and desire to create something meaningful that other people can relate to their work will not go unnoticed. INFP: Nurse- Maybe a little weird but hear me out again. This job requires empathy...so much of it. And this type has the potential to have lots of it due to their strong Fi. Also the job is very personal and you get to know people intimately and perhaps even console them in their last moments,which INFPs with their Fi-Ne appreciate and understands how to bring peace to them. ~The End~ ps. if you are interested visit diogenism
Part 2/3 My Introduction to a Professional Sports Betting Syndicate
PART 2/3 The train ride home from that meeting I was excited and nervous. I played out every possible scenario of this arrangement. My first concern was what would happen if my employer found out. It definitely didn’t benefit George or me telling anyone about this so it wasn’t really a loose lips sink ships concern but rather my company noticing a pattern of delays on injury reporting, our company kept logs and tested speed but usually I was the one doing that and nobody ever checked them, but would that change if delays started to happen regularly? I figured I could just play dumb if it ever came up, “I’m sending them out as fast as I can boss, it was really busy”. These are convos I was playing back n forth in my head. I even thought about the possibility of this being some sort of loyalty test from my boss. It was unlikely but after all George and him went way back, my boss operated a sportsbook in Costa Rica back in the day and George was a big thorn in his side as he was killing bookies in Costa Rica during that time. My second concern was about money which during the meeting he glossed over briefly. To me money isn’t everything, it’s the only motherfucking thing that matters. So the terms he explained to me was that I would be paid a flat rate only for each accurate report for players listed as probable. I would get 15% for each accurate report on any questionable players, 25% on accurate reports on players that were doubtful and finally when I reported a player being OUT and he was in fact out for that game I would get 35%. This was for key players and starters only. He said it would be based on the following wager amounts of each report, if I reported a player questionable he’d be betting $5,000, $7,500 for Doubtful and $10,000 for out, $200 flat rate for players reported probable. Now a few things I have to mention, me reporting this information to him doesn’t guarantee that the team loses, especially if I’m reporting something along the lines of BK-F-[Joe Harris]-Lower Leg-Doubtful, it didn’t matter if Brooklyn lost or didn’t cover I would be getting paid as long as the information was accurate. If I reported a player questionable or doubtful and he ended up playing I didn’t get paid. I know some of you might be thinking the deal sounds awesome and it did. I could report a player OUT and if he didn’t play I could get $3,500 which even thinking about it now is insane. One thing I learned at a young age is you never accept the first offer you receive, so as good of a deal as it sounded and the thought of how much money I could be making was mind blowing I began to think about his earning potential. He did his best to convey that nothing was certain and that it’s really not too often a key player is scratched from the lineup, blah blah etc. I imagined George didn’t become a successful sports bettor by giving everyone great deals. I put myself in his shoes and started to think about what I’d do if I had access to thousands of sports book accounts, a capable team and the ability to bet while getting injury info before books adjusted lines. Having this injury information didn’t mean an automatic win George made sure to hammer that fact home to me. George didn’t tell me this but what I realized is it didn’t matter who won or lost for George because he wasn’t actually risking anything. I’ll explain: Let’s say NBA Phoenix vs Utah and Utah is -5, I get a ping -PHO-G-[Devin Booker]-Left Foot-OUT and I send it to George and what I assume his team did was they would program his software to bet Utah -5 at every book that has it listed at -5 or better. His automated bet software allows him to place bets on hundreds if not thousands of different accounts within 10 seconds, it even auto-confirms the username and password. He now has X amount of money on Utah-5 who is playing Phoenix who is without their best player. While George and his team are finishing up pounding Utah I’m likely just hitting send at work reporting the Devin Booker injury status, within seconds books are now moving the Utah line as the public is also reacting to this news. Within a couple minutes it is widely known Booker is doubtful. Let’s say the line eventually gets up from -5 to Utah -8 which would be likely in this case. Most of you can guess what George and his team does then, they come back and bet Phoenix +8 for the same amount of money they bet Utah-5, Hence the no risk part, he now just sits back and hopes for the game to land on 6 or 7(Utah -5 & Phoenix +8). Of course there is no guarantee Utah would win by exactly 6 or 7 for him to cash both sides but even a Utah win by 5 and 8 would be great considering he’s only risking juice. It’s been a couple days since the meeting and it’s all I’ve been thinking about. It’s not like I can really ask anyone for advice either, the only people that can know about this is myself and George and his team. A few things I realized was he would definitely be betting more than $5,000 to $10,000 per injury report but my % was based on those figures he said. I understood not every player I would be reporting would result in a big line move but then again I’d only be reporting key players and starters. Also if a player is reported out for 3 or 4 days it’s not like I’d be getting paid to report him being out each night. It was really just players that played in their previous game and their status has changed before the next game. I figured I would still make a ton of money but it all depended on players getting hurt and missing games. Tough to say how many times this would occur, could be 0 or 10 in a week, Another big thing I was hung up on is the morality of it all. I knew I wouldn't be doing anything illegal but it was definitely straddling the fence between right and wrong. It’s also important to note that at this time in my life this was one of my first real jobs, you know the ones that have dental and eye insurance. Prior to this I was an illegal street bookie, among other things, all illegal. No shocker this eventually led me to prison and I had only been out of prison for about 2 years before I started working for this company so staying on the straight n narrow was important not just for me but for family members, I could finally answer questions about what exactly I do for a living. It was a good feeling and here I was contemplating jeopardizing it all. Or at least that’s what I was thinking at the time. Exactly one week after the meeting I get a text message from a number I don’t have saved, (I’m paraphrasing, it was a long time ago) but the text read “Hey I work for George, he told me to connect with you to set up messenger apps and establish lines of communication,”. My anxiety immediately spiked. I haven’t even confirmed with George that I’m officially in. So I responded with “Ok, sounds good but first could you pass along to George that I have a few questions before getting started”, No response. I realized I gave George my number but didn’t get his number so all I had was the number from this text message and didn’t even have a name. I’m thinking I just blew this whole opportunity which looking back now was stupid of me to think but this whole process was just nerve racking, a lot of potential money on the line for everyone involved and the thought of going from no responsibility at work and just bullshitting around to having to be on point and super focused as id be playing a major role in the betting syndicate. Not to mention I still had questions and would like to negotiate and counter his offer. Also it’s worth noting that a customer asking me for a deal on an ounce and me saying no was the full extent of all my previous experience negotiating deals. It’s now a few days since I got that text and roughly 10 or 12 days since the conference. A small part of me was hoping he had a change of mind and doesn’t want to do it or something came up. The other part of me wanted to make money and to become a part of his team. My shift at work was 2pm - 10pm and after 5pm I was the only one working, except on weekends when it was busy there were two of us. It was a weekday night right as I was finishing up work, I got a call from a private number, I normally don’t answer private or unknown numbers but since the conference I started answering them. Me: Hello George: “What’s up? Are we going forward or what? Mario said you had some questions, what you don’t like money (fake lol) Me: George! I would’ve reached out sooner but didn’t have a number for you. Something I realized down the road was George knew that I was the night employee, NBA games start between 7pm -10pm at least on weekdays, so what good would an employee that works 8am to 2pm do for him, especially when breaking injury news is typically announced the hour leading up to tip-off. He also knew there’s only one employee after 5pm on weekdays. I realized quickly that I wasn’t going to be fun and games working with friends, this was strictly business and everything was so serious, of course I realize now why. That phone call was the first of a series of phone calls back n forth over the next day or 2. As I suspected the terms he initially quoted were low and he eventually agreed to an increase on the doubtful and out percentages only. We ultimately reached an agreement and we planned that the next 3 days would be when we start running some trial tests. He said Mario would call me to set up the messenger apps and explain where to send the information, I just had to make sure it got to them accurately and fast. It all hit me, there is no turning back now, I’m all-in with this and looking back on it now, this decision alone is the turning point in my professional career and would ultimately set off a chain of events that led to shit I just never imagined. To Be Continued.... Will likely just release Part 3 later today because I’m going away for the weekend.
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