The 7 Best Sports Betting Strategies - Top Betting Sites
InsideTrack Monte Carlo Simulation - Best betting method!
I made a post yesterday with a calculator to see if the inside track odds were in your favour rather than the houses. I decided to simulate 100,000 horse races to see if this strategy would pay off in the long run. I setup a spreadsheet to calculate the probability and profit returned yield depending on various betting methods. This is a monte carlo simulation. Here are the results for a couple of betting methods. If there are any more strategies you would like to me to simulate hmu Graph of win probabilities of various betting methods in InsideTrack There are 7 betting methods I simulated in the graph: Choosing Best Odds. ~23% Profit, 80% of the time This ones simple, just choose the best odds, all the time no matter what, with enough races you will continue to earn around 20-25% profit. Choosing Best Odds when the book is in your favour. ~33% Profit, 65% of the time This is a little bit more complicated, this is where you calculate if the odds for the race as a whole are in your favour or the houses, if its in your favour you bet on the best horse, including evens! This is the best strategy i've come up with (as others have) you can expect a good profit most of the time. Check my post here for how to calculate it Choosing Best Odds when the book is NOT in your favour -10% profit, 55% of the time This one is just a bit of fun to show how bad it really is if the odds were always in favour of the house, even if you choose the horse with the best odds anyway. You will lose money with this Choosing best odds except when horse 1 and 2 are the same odds ~10% profit, 70% of the time Since horse 1 and 2 can have the same odds, theres less chance your horse will win. Choosing best odds but dont bet when best is evens or when horse 1 and 2 are the same odds ~3% profit, 55% of the time. Choosing horse 6 only ~3% profit 55% of the time, but ~43% profit 20% of the time! I've seen some people band this around, while if you get a couple of wins in a row you could call it quits, but more likely you will only break even. Betting on horse 1 when horse 2 is 5/1 odds 30-40% profit, 35% of the time This is the general strategy that's been posted on on this subreddit, only betting when horse 2 is 5/1 and bet on horse 1, sometimes not including Evens, but in this sim i've included Evens. Generally you will still be betting when the house has favour with this method, but its easier to figure out when to bet in game.
Touch-typer (80 wpm) but would like to increase speed and reduce mistakes. Is the home-row method my best bet?
I've been a touch-typer for about 20 years now (since I was 10), the issue is that I still make a lot of mistakes, mainly because of where my fingers are placed. Currently I favor my index fingers, and then use my middle and ring fingers for nearby keys, left thumb for spacebar and sometimes I'll use my pinky for the delete key. Is learning home-row the next step? What apps/services are best for learning and practicing? (I use a Mac but can install Windows if needed.) Thanks!
[GUIDE] How I turned €500 into €15000 without risk / What have I learnt about betting during the last two years.
This is going to be a long read, and English is not my tongue language so excuse me in case there are some grammar mistakes. I will try to explain from my experience which methods I have used during the last two years to make money in this business. Some of them worked pretty well, some of them not that good, but still I want to share with you guys some tips specially for those who just began on Betting. To make this clear: The strategy I used and I am still using to make money on betting is the Bonus Hunting strategy I am explaining below. The rest of this post are tips and other methods which I have tryied but *not with that good results, and of course, with risk* BETTING TIPS There are PLENTY of amazing posts / comments about this here, but it's always good the have a reminder. From my experience this are some of them:
Fix STAKES and learn how to manage your bankroll before start betting. You don't need to have 10 different stakes, 2 or 3 are fine if you know how to manage them. Professional tipsters they sometimes use a flat stake and sometimes 2-3 different ones. Of course you can't put the same amount of money @10 than you put at @2.
From my experience, the best odd-range is 1,8-2,2. That's mostly the range professional tipsters are using.
Be carefull with multiple bets, it's okay to bet on 10 matches a small ammount of money to see if you get lucky, we all do that. But if you are betting bigger ammounts I wouldn't recommend more than 2-3 different bets.
If you LOSE, you LOSE. You don't double the next bet to take back, you don't do stupid moves. You wait until the next opportunity.
Whitdraw part of your benefits when they come.
Get used to ASIAN LINES, specially those 0,25 / 0,75 since it's an amazing way to control the risk.
Do your research before betting. You don't bet on a team to win just because they won the last three matches. Check the sidebar, check more statistics, check who is injury, check the line-ups if there are doubts about if some player will finally play. And really important, CHECK THE ODDS EVOLUTION, If Team 1 has won the last matches, playing good, appartently no injuries... and the odd has raised a lot the last hour ask yourself WHY. Before smiling because you may make more profit, think twice and do your research again because seems like someone knows something that you don't about this match. Specially if the odd has raised from @2 to @2.2 in 1 minute, because that means that someone has put a huge ammount of money there, and probably he knows more than you. Be aware of that specially on small markets (Non-important leagues). You can see the odd moves in oddsportal (check sidebar).
Use a Betting house that don't limit you. I have been limited a lot of times, sometimes just after one bet, so please do yourself a favour. Pinnacle is an excelent option.
There are not magic strategies to make money on betting.
115-120% ROI it's an amazing monthly mark to professional tipsters, be realistic about your profit forecast.
Sign up in many betting houses. Check the odds and select the best one. Long-run makes huge difference.
1. BONUS HUNTING
Strategy without risk, once you master it.
That's way so far the best betting method I have ever used. It takes time to Master but it's really simply an everybody can do it. I am sure you all have heard of that. Just in case you didn't do it yet, here's a basic guide: Eg) Bet365 offers €100 to new Users if you deposit €100. (They also give a €50 phone-bonus with small requeriments). Of course you can not withdraw the money inmediatly. You have to move the money X times before that. The requeriments for Bet365 in Spain are x4. So Bonus money + Deposit money x4. That makes 800 EUR. And the minimum odd is 1,5 and you CAN'T bet on Asian Lines. What do I do now? Well, you just have to sign up in different betting houses and move the money. Or in other words, bet against yourself. You will need a Surebet software for that, you can easily find one on the Internet. In my case I use this one because it's pretty simple. All the betting softwares work more or less the same way, they show: -Profit: Bet between -1,5% +2,5%. AVOID betting at 45% surebets because that's a mistake from the bookies, they will change your odd after betting if you get lucky to place your bet before they notice of their mistake. -Bookmarker: Here it will show up between which bookmarkers you have to place your bet. For example, you have now €200 in Bet365, and you just sign up on Pinnacle. Then you have to deposit money on Pinnacle and place the bet in both websites. Let's say Arsenal-Chelsea. Over 2,5 goals in Bet365 is @2 and Under 2,5 goals in Pinnacle is @2,03. No matter what happens that you will make 0,83% profit and you will have moved €200 of those €800 you have to move. Or even better than that, let's say the Final Score of the match is 1-1, so U2,5 goals. In that case you would have won your bet on Pinnacle, which means that you would have made aprox. €200 profit on Pinnacle and you would have lost €100 in Bet365 (Remember that from those €200 just €100 are yours, the rest is the bonus part). You have won €200 on Pinn, you have lost €100 on Bet. So totally you have made €100 in just one bet. That's the best case, hunting the bonus in just one move. If the final score would have been 2-2, then you would have made your 0,83% profit and keep betting between Bet365 and other bookies until you would have moved the €800. -Event: That's where you are going to bet. YOU NEVER BET ON SPORTS OR MARKETS BEFORE DOING RESEARCH. Eg) Liverpool-Aston Villla Over 3,5 cards @2 Under 3.5 cards @2 Seems like a good way to move your money. But you have to know that a red card in some BH is considered as 1 card and in some others is considered as 2 yellow cards. Let's say there was 2 yellow cards and 1 red card: That would make 3 cards in one BH and 4 in another one. Imagine O3,5 was were the red cards count as one and U3,5 where red cards count as two. You would have lost all your money. How do I know which ammount I have to bet on every case? Let's say you have found a nice 2,7% profit bet between two betting houses and you have a bonus in one of them. You will get the bonus and also the profit, that's a good one. This betting house offers a €100 bonus if you deposit the same amount. So now you would bet €200 in one side and X amount on the other side. Let's say ManUtd vs Hull City: MU Asian Handicap -0,5 @1,97 - Betting House 1 (You have the bonus here) Hull City X2 @2,06 - Betting House 2 You would bet €200 @1,97 at BH 1 and €191,26 at BH2. Here's the link from one calculator I'm using (all work the same way). THINGS YOU MUST KNOW:
If you are hunting one bonus between two betting houses and you don't know which amount of money they will allow you to bet, you check the max. bet on the one that shows you the bet limits, and once you know that bet in the other BH first. or you could have troubles. If the Event is really big then you don't have to, but on small markets you must.
Avoid Too-high profit surebets, Move your money between -1,5% and 3,4,5,7%.. maximum. You don't bet €200 at profit 56% because that's a bookie mistake and that's a really small market which will probably all you to bet no more than €25. If you get in there, the bookie most probably will send you a message saying that your odds has been changed. You will pay their mistake.
You don't bet €200 anywhere, be carefull. If the bonus have high rolleover requirements such as move €1600 EUR, you don't move €400 in one bet. That's suspicious. Keep it simple, move €200 maximum and in normal events like Premier League Matches, La Liga, Serie A, FA Cup, UCL, EL, NBA, Main Basketball Leagues... that's ok. Remember to check always the limits before betting.
Do RESEARCH BEFORE STARTING. Make a new Excel document, and write down all the betting houses you are going to hunt bonus from. Check their conditions, you are not interested on making €50 if you have to move €2000. That's a waste of your time. Also check all the payment methods, I recommend NetelleSkrill or PayPal, easier and faster. Write down all the documents you are going to need for the withdrawal. Check reviews from the betting houses, try to avoid the new ones, let them settle down first.
You can only hunt the bonus ONCE per person which means that If you want to continue doing this method you will have to find more people who wants to do it. That's what I have done, friends of mine gave me the documents I needed + PayPal/NetelleSkrill verified account and I do it for them. Of course I pay them around €100-€150. Which is not bad money for them considering they have to do nothing almost. Is it hard to find people? Well, I have 6 on the line right now, everybody wants money for free specially if they are students. How much money do I need for getting started? I would say around €500. So you can sign up for a €100 Bonus depositing €200 in another house and you still have some extra-money just in case you win all your bets on the 'Bonus Betting House' and you haven't moved enough money to make the withdrawal yet. Once you start making money you can do this method for more than one person at the same time. How much money can I make? Depends on the betting houses available in your country and the number of persons you are doing at once. UK is the best one so far (more BH, more offers) Spain is pretty good also. You have to do your own research for your country. 2. ARBITRAGE BETTING That's what you use for hunting the bonus - moving money between two betting houses without risk because you have placed bets on all the possible options -. You can do it independently. If your country has acces to betting houses where you don't get limit you can move money between them at high profit ranges. Eg) Valencia-Sevilla. BBTS YES @2,3 - Betting House 1 BBTS NO @1,97 - Betting House 2 There is a 6,85% profit on this Bet. Which is amazing. Now you could place a €2000 bet. For example betting €1032,72 on option 1 and €1205,69 in option two you would make €136,82 no matter what happens. What is the problem with this method?
You need to bet big to win big.
You would get limited in most of the betting houses after that.
This only works on big markets, you can't put this amounts in a Sweden 3rd Division match.
If they cancel the match in one side but not in the other one and your bet wins in the side that has canceled your match... Well.. (Have to say this has never happened to me and it's really weird to happen on big matches).
3. TRADING I have done Betting Trading for a while, you can do it WHILE the match is being played or before that. What is the method about? It's about trying to figure out what the odds of one match are going to do before they do. Obviously you need to have strong information about the match you want to bet on. *Eg) Based on this week. Dortmund-Real Madrid. Dortmund to win opening odd was @2,78 (15th September). The odd right before the match for the same bet was @2,23. WHY? Well, because something has happened between these time. Real Madrid couldn't win Las Palmas the 24th + some injuries + Cristian Ronaldo haven't done his best. And Dortmund won Wolfsburf 1-5 and Freiburg 3-1 in 3 days. Now let's see somehow you could have seen that Real Madrid would have trouble in Las Palmas stadium and Dortmund would continue winning on Bundesliga. Let's say you placed a €1000 bet on Dortmund to win @2,78 (day when the bookies offered the match). Then you waited and right before the match was started you bet €1588 on Real Madrid +0,5 @1,75. You would have made €191,43 and the match would't have even started.* Check it yourself here Of course this a risky-long term example, but you can do it before and after the lines-ups. If you think some player won't play because you have strong information about that, place your bet, wait for the odd to raise up and close the bet on the other side aftertwards. Does anyone really make money this way? Yes. Let's say you know a professional tipster with a lot of subscribers. When this guy shows the next bet a lot of people who have payed for that service will bet there, and usually big amounts of money. If you somehow know where the influential-tipster is going to bet before he posts it to his subscriptors you have your business done. Open bet, wait for the odd to go down, close bet other side. What does people who doesn't have access to this kind of information (mostly everybody)?. They do big research, check a lot of pages, be documented as posible. If you find something really good some or later the odd will drop. But it's hard to find. Where to do trading? Pinnacle doesn't limit, that's why most of people uses that BH. Also betfair is an excelent option for this kind of methods. Good luck with your betting!
I'm seeing a lot of ways and I'm not to sure which iw the best, I've seen people say bet horse 1 always, best horse 6 and you will get tons or even make sure horse 2 has 5/1 and bet on horse 1 if it has 4/1
Hi everyone, I was wondering what way some of you guys find us the best way to make profit in the long run betting on soccer. What way do you manage your bank roll? How many bets do you do a day? What markets do you bet on? Do you only do singles? How do you find value? Any help would be greatly appreciated as I need to improve my strategy as it hasn’t been profitable as of late. I usually do 3-4folds at odds of over 2.00 on over 1.5 goal markets but I’m losing more than I’m winning!
Suggested methods for building a modern browser-based, text-based MUD from scratch? Something like Arctic MUD in a browser, or A Dark Room but multiplayer. Is JS and node.js my best bet?
If you don't know the examples I'm referring to, I basically mean you go to the URL, enter your username and see something like "You're standing in cave. Do you want to go NESW?" But massively multiplayer so that other users from around the world can also explore the cave all together? Thanks!
If I wanted to turn one dollar into a million dollars by gambling, what method would give me the best odds? State lotto gives horrible odds because they keep 50% of the ticket revenue. Would betting on baccarat about 20 times in row and letting it ride give me the best odds?
So I am having car troubles as of late, and luckily for me most of my commute is within reason whether that be walking or riding a bicycle. I used to be big into bicycling when I was younger, but it sorta dwindled away once I got said automobile that got me into my current situation. So i'm looking to get back into the hobby, for exercise and having a method of transportation, but I have never owned a fixed gear bike and am having a few questions. My biggest concern, which I imagine is many of peoples, is braking. I have watched videos and read countless tips/tricks/etc, but for the life of me I am still somewhat confused. I see some fixed gear bikes (this is the same as a 'road' bike, please correct me if i'm wrong) with a front and/or rear brake, which seems better to me as I would feel more comfortable with having an actual breaking method. So what is your best bet method of braking while riding your fixie? After that, since I've only owned BMX and mountain (gear) bikes my entire life, is a fixed gear really for me? My father has owned plenty and loved them, but I have not so I am a little skeptical. The farthest ride I face on a 6/7 day basis is work, it is exactly 2.7 miles from my house but a very hilly ride to and from work. Which brings me back to the concerns of braking. Lastly I will show you a few bikes I've been looking at and can hopefully get some feedback. Unfortunately, and surprisingly I am from a college town, my local craigslist is lacking in the bicycle department but I found this and have been contacting the owner and he has been very helpful with answering questions. https://columbia.craigslist.org/msg/4865163410.html But unfortunately I am part of said college town and don't have tons of money to dish out for said bike, so this is right around my spending limit. Give or take. So after craigslist and other classifieds failed me, I decided to go to my go to website and started looking at Amazon and found a few I am interested in, especially since they are priced better and most have actual reviews. This was my first stop, I wasn't too thrilled with the colors or the handlebar style but the price was very nice: http://www.amazon.com/Takara-Kabuto-Single-Speed-Frame/dp/B004GWP6CK/ref=sr_1_1?s=sporting-goods&ie=UTF8&qid=1424230564&sr=1-1&keywords=road+bike After that I ended up looking at these and was happy with the reviews, and once again the price: http://www.amazon.com/Denali-Black-Green-25-Inch-Large/dp/B00FNVBSAW/ref=sr_1_2?s=sporting-goods&ie=UTF8&qid=1424230564&sr=1-2&keywords=road+bike So I noticed that they can be pretty damn cheap on Amazon, hell some of them were a 1/3 of the price of crap bikes I priced at big box stores like: http://www.amazon.com/Denali-Black-Green-25-Inch-Large/dp/B00FNVBSAW/ref=sr_1_2?s=sporting-goods&ie=UTF8&qid=1424230564&sr=1-2&keywords=road+bike Or: http://www.amazon.com/Roadmaster-Granite-Peak-Mens-Mountain/dp/B00FH6IBTY/ref=sr_1_116?s=sporting-goods&ie=UTF8&qid=1424230773&sr=1-116&keywords=road+bike Though i'm not entirely sure that one fits under the fixie category, I am mostly just impressed by the price. But I know from future endeavors that buying the cheapest isn't always the best bet since you'll most likely be spending more in the end. So the one I found that aesthetically and price wise pleases me is: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00O9HFI66/ref=ox_sc_act_title_1?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=A2AB59EFZW23Y2 But the reviews on Amazon are good, just literally only one. I am looking more into the company later on tonight but would love some feedback. Like I said I am completely new to the fixie bicycle style, have never ridden one and am interested and looking to get into it because of my situation. So if anyone here has some insight they are willing to share please feel free to help. tl;dr: Car is messed up, was big into bikes before being car owner, wants to get back into bikes, especially into fixed geared bikes, although looking into getting whats best for my situation.
Taproot! Everybody wants to have it, somebody wants to make it, nobody knows how to get it! (If you are asking why everybody wants it, see: Technical: Taproot: Why Activate?) (Pedants: I mostly elide over lockin times) Briefly, Taproot is that neat new thing that gets us:
Multisignatures (n-of-n, k-of-n) that are just 1 signature (1-of-1) in length!! (MuSig/Schnorr)
Better privacy!! If all contract participants can agree, just use a multisignature. If there is a dispute, show the contract publicly and have the Bitcoin network resolve it (Taproot/MAST).
Activation lets devs work get back to work on the even newer stuff like!!!
Cross-input signature aggregation!! (transaction with multiple inputs can have a single signature for all inputs) --- needs Schnorr, but some more work needed to ensure that the interactions with SCRIPT are okay.
Block validation - Schnorr signatures for all taproot spends in a block can be validated in a single operation instead of for each transaction!! Speed up validation and maybe we can actually afford to increase block sizes (maybe)!!
SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT - you know, for Decker-Russell-Osuntokun ("eltoo") magic!!!
OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFY - vaulty vaults without requiring storing signatures, just transaction details!!
So yes, let's activate taproot!
The SegWit Wars
The biggest problem with activating Taproot is PTSD from the previous softfork, SegWit. Pieter Wuille, one of the authors of the current Taproot proposal, has consistently held the position that he will not discuss activation, and will accept whatever activation process is imposed on Taproot. Other developers have expressed similar opinions. So what happened with SegWit activation that was so traumatic? SegWit used the BIP9 activation method. Let's dive into BIP9!
bit - A field in the block header, the nVersion, has a number of bits. By setting a particular bit, the miner making the block indicates that it has upgraded its software to support a particular soft fork. The bit parameter for a BIP9 activation is which bit in this nVersion is used to indicate that the miner has upgraded software for a particular soft fork.
timeout - a time limit, expressed as an end date. If this timeout is reached without sufficient number of miners signaling that they upgraded, then the activation fails and Bitcoin Core goes back to the drawing board.
Now there are other parameters (name, starttime) but they are not anywhere near as important as the above two. A number that is not a parameter, is 95%. Basically, activation of a BIP9 softfork is considered as actually succeeding if at least 95% of blocks in the last 2 weeks had the specified bit in the nVersion set. If less than 95% had this bit set before the timeout, then the upgrade fails and never goes into the network. This is not a parameter: it is a constant defined by BIP9, and developers using BIP9 activation cannot change this. So, first some simple questions and their answers:
Why not just set a day when everyone starts imposing the new rules of the softfork?
This was done classically (in the days when Satoshi was still among us). But this might argued to put too much power to developers, since there would be no way to reject an upgrade without possible bad consequences. For example, developers might package an upgrade that the users do not want, together with vital security bugfixes. Either you live without vital security bugfixes and hire some other developers to fix it for you (which can be difficult, presumably the best developers are already the ones working on the codebase) or you get the vital security bugfixes and implicitly support the upgrade you might not want.
Sure, you could fork the code yourself (the ultimate threat in the FOSS world) and hire another set of developers who aren't assholes to do the dreary maintenance work of fixing security bugs, but Bitcoin needs strong bug-for-bug compatibility so everyone should really congregate around a single codebase.
Basically: even the devs do not want this power, because they fear being coerced into putting "upgrades" that are detrimental to users. Satoshi got a pass because nobody knew who he was and how to coerce him.
Suppose the threshold were lower, like 51%. If so, after activation, somebody can disrupt the Bitcoin network by creating a transaction that is valid under the pre-softfork rules, but are invalid under the post-softfork rules. Upgraded nodes would reject it, but 49% of miners would accept it and include it in a block (which makes the block invalid) And then the same 49% would accept the invalid block and build on top of that, possibly creating a short chain of doomed invalid blocks that confirm an invalid spend. This can confuse SPV wallets, who might see multiple confirmations of a transaction and accept the funds, but later find that in fact it is invalid under the now-activated softfork rules.
Thus, a very high threshold was imposed. 95% is considered safe. 50% is definitely not safe. Due to variance in the mining process, 80% could also be potentially unsafe (i.e. 80% of blocks signaling might have a good chance of coming from only 60% of miners), so a threshold of 95% was considered "safe enough for Bitcoin work".
Why have a timeout that disables the upgrade?
Before BIP9, what was used was either flag day or BIP34. BIP34 had no flag day of activation or a bit, instead, it was just a 95% threshold to signal an nVersion value greater than a specific value. Actually, it was two thresholds: at 75%, blocks with the new nVersion would have the new softfork rules imposed, but at 95% blocks with the old nVersion would be rejected (and only the new blocks, with the new softfork rules, were accepted). For one, between 75% and 95%, there was a situation where the softfork was only "partially imposed", only blocks signaling the new rules would actually have those rules, but blocks with the old rules were still valid. This was fine for BIP34, which only added rules for miners with negligible use for non-miners.
The reasons miners signalled support was because they felt they were being pressured to signal support. So they signalled support, with plans to actually upgrade later, but because of the widespread signalling, the new BIP66 version locked in before upgrade plans were finished. Thus, the timeout that disables the upgrade was added in BIP9 to allow miners an escape hatch.
The Great Battles of the SegWit Wars
SegWit not only fixed transaction malleability, it also created a practical softforkable blocksize increase that also rebalanced weights so that the cost of spending a UTXO is about the same as the cost of creating UTXOs (and spending UTXOs is "better" since it limits the size of the UTXO set that every fullnode has to maintain). So SegWit was written, the activation was decided to be BIP9, and then.... miner signalling stalled at below 75%. Thus were the Great SegWit Wars started.
BIP9 Feature Hostage
If you are a miner with at least 5% global hashpower, you can hold a BIP9-activated softfork hostage. You might even secretly want the softfork to actually push through. But you might want to extract concession from the users and the developers. Like removing the halvening. Or raising or even removing the block size caps (which helps larger miners more than smaller miners, making it easier to become a bigger fish that eats all the smaller fishes). Or whatever. With BIP9, you can hold the softfork hostage. You just hold out and refuse to signal. You tell everyone you will signal, if and only if certain concessions are given to you. This ability by miners to hold a feature hostage was enabled because of the miner-exit allowed by the timeout on BIP9. Prior to that, miners were considered little more than expendable security guards, paid for the risk they take to secure the network, but not special in the grand scheme of Bitcoin.
ASICBoost was a novel way of optimizing SHA256 mining, by taking advantage of the structure of the 80-byte header that is hashed in order to perform proof-of-work. The details of ASICBoost are out-of-scope here but you can read about it elsewhere Here is a short summary of the two types of ASICBoost, relevant to the activation discussion.
Overt ASICBoost - Manipulates the unused bits in nVersion to reduce power consumption in mining.
Covert ASICBoost - Manipulates the order of transactions in the block to reduce power consumption in mining.
Now, "overt" means "obvious", while "covert" means hidden. Overt ASICBoost is obvious because nVersion bits that are not currently in use for BIP9 activations are usually 0 by default, so setting those bits to 1 makes it obvious that you are doing something weird (namely, Overt ASICBoost). Covert ASICBoost is non-obvious because the order of transactions in a block are up to the miner anyway, so the miner rearranging the transactions in order to get lower power consumption is not going to be detected. Unfortunately, while Overt ASICBoost was compatible with SegWit, Covert ASICBoost was not. This is because, pre-SegWit, only the block header Merkle tree committed to the transaction ordering. However, with SegWit, another Merkle tree exists, which commits to transaction ordering as well. Covert ASICBoost would require more computation to manipulate two Merkle trees, obviating the power benefits of Covert ASICBoost anyway. Now, miners want to use ASICBoost (indeed, about 60->70% of current miners probably use the Overt ASICBoost nowadays; if you have a Bitcoin fullnode running you will see the logs with lots of "60 of last 100 blocks had unexpected versions" which is exactly what you would see with the nVersion manipulation that Overt ASICBoost does). But remember: ASICBoost was, at around the time, a novel improvement. Not all miners had ASICBoost hardware. Those who did, did not want it known that they had ASICBoost hardware, and wanted to do Covert ASICBoost! But Covert ASICBoost is incompatible with SegWit, because SegWit actually has two Merkle trees of transaction data, and Covert ASICBoost works by fudging around with transaction ordering in a block, and recomputing two Merkle Trees is more expensive than recomputing just one (and loses the ASICBoost advantage). Of course, those miners that wanted Covert ASICBoost did not want to openly admit that they had ASICBoost hardware, they wanted to keep their advantage secret because miners are strongly competitive in a very tight market. And doing ASICBoost Covertly was just the ticket, but they could not work post-SegWit. Fortunately, due to the BIP9 activation process, they could hold SegWit hostage while covertly taking advantage of Covert ASICBoost!
UASF: BIP148 and BIP8
When the incompatibility between Covert ASICBoost and SegWit was realized, still, activation of SegWit stalled, and miners were still not openly claiming that ASICBoost was related to non-activation of SegWit. Eventually, a new proposal was created: BIP148. With this rule, 3 months before the end of the SegWit timeout, nodes would reject blocks that did not signal SegWit. Thus, 3 months before SegWit timeout, BIP148 would force activation of SegWit. This proposal was not accepted by Bitcoin Core, due to the shortening of the timeout (it effectively times out 3 months before the initial SegWit timeout). Instead, a fork of Bitcoin Core was created which added the patch to comply with BIP148. This was claimed as a User Activated Soft Fork, UASF, since users could freely download the alternate fork rather than sticking with the developers of Bitcoin Core. Now, BIP148 effectively is just a BIP9 activation, except at its (earlier) timeout, the new rules would be activated anyway (instead of the BIP9-mandated behavior that the upgrade is cancelled at the end of the timeout). BIP148 was actually inspired by the BIP8 proposal (the link here is a historical version; BIP8 has been updated recently, precisely in preparation for Taproot activation). BIP8 is basically BIP9, but at the end of timeout, the softfork is activated anyway rather than cancelled. This removed the ability of miners to hold the softfork hostage. At best, they can delay the activation, but not stop it entirely by holding out as in BIP9. Of course, this implies risk that not all miners have upgraded before activation, leading to possible losses for SPV users, as well as again re-pressuring miners to signal activation, possibly without the miners actually upgrading their software to properly impose the new softfork rules.
BIP91, SegWit2X, and The Aftermath
BIP148 inspired countermeasures, possibly from the Covert ASiCBoost miners, possibly from concerned users who wanted to offer concessions to miners. To this day, the common name for BIP148 - UASF - remains an emotionally-charged rallying cry for parts of the Bitcoin community. One of these was SegWit2X. This was brokered in a deal between some Bitcoin personalities at a conference in New York, and thus part of the so-called "New York Agreement" or NYA, another emotionally-charged acronym. The text of the NYA was basically:
Set up a new activation threshold at 80% signalled at bit 4 (vs bit 1 for SegWit).
When this 80% signalling was reached, miners would require that bit 1 for SegWit be signalled to achive the 95% activation needed for SegWit.
If the bit 4 signalling reached 80%, increase the block weight limit from the SegWit 4000000 to the SegWit2X 8000000, 6 months after bit 1 activation.
The first item above was coded in BIP91. Unfortunately, if you read the BIP91, independently of NYA, you might come to the conclusion that BIP91 was only about lowering the threshold to 80%. In particular, BIP91 never mentions anything about the second point above, it never mentions that bit 4 80% threshold would also signal for a later hardfork increase in weight limit. Because of this, even though there are claims that NYA (SegWit2X) reached 80% dominance, a close reading of BIP91 shows that the 80% dominance was only for SegWit activation, without necessarily a later 2x capacity hardfork (SegWit2X). This ambiguity of bit 4 (NYA says it includes a 2x capacity hardfork, BIP91 says it does not) has continued to be a thorn in blocksize debates later. Economically speaking, Bitcoin futures between SegWit and SegWit2X showed strong economic dominance in favor of SegWit (SegWit2X futures were traded at a fraction in value of SegWit futures: I personally made a tidy but small amount of money betting against SegWit2X in the futures market), so suggesting that NYA achieved 80% dominance even in mining is laughable, but the NYA text that ties bit 4 to SegWit2X still exists. Historically, BIP91 triggered which caused SegWit to activate before the BIP148 shorter timeout. BIP148 proponents continue to hold this day that it was the BIP148 shorter timeout and no-compromises-activate-on-August-1 that made miners flock to BIP91 as a face-saving tactic that actually removed the second clause of NYA. NYA supporters keep pointing to the bit 4 text in the NYA and the historical activation of BIP91 as a failed promise by Bitcoin developers.
We have discussed BIP8: roughly, it has bit and timeout, if 95% of miners signal bit it activates, at the end of timeout it activates. (EDIT: BIP8 has had recent updates: at the end of timeout it can now activate or fail. For the most part, in the below text "BIP8", means BIP8-and-activate-at-timeout, and "BIP9" means BIP8-and-fail-at-timeout) So let's take a look at Modern Softfork Activation!
Modern Softfork Activation
This is a more complex activation method, composed of BIP9 and BIP8 as supcomponents.
First have a 12-month BIP9 (fail at timeout).
If the above fails to activate, have a 6-month discussion period during which users and developers and miners discuss whether to continue to step 3.
Have a 24-month BIP8 (activate at timeout).
The total above is 42 months, if you are counting: 3.5 years worst-case activation. The logic here is that if there are no problems, BIP9 will work just fine anyway. And if there are problems, the 6-month period should weed it out. Finally, miners cannot hold the feature hostage since the 24-month BIP8 period will exist anyway.
PSA: Being Resilient to Upgrades
Software is very birttle. Anyone who has been using software for a long time has experienced something like this:
You hear a new version of your favorite software has a nice new feature.
Excited, you install the new version.
You find that the new version has subtle incompatibilities with your current workflow.
You are sad and downgrade to the older version.
You find out that the new version has changed your files in incompatible ways that the old version cannot work with anymore.
You tearfully reinstall the newer version and figure out how to get your lost productivity now that you have to adapt to a new workflow
If you are a technically-competent user, you might codify your workflow into a bunch of programs. And then you upgrade one of the external pieces of software you are using, and find that it has a subtle incompatibility with your current workflow which is based on a bunch of simple programs you wrote yourself. And if those simple programs are used as the basis of some important production system, you hve just screwed up because you upgraded software on an important production system. And well, one of the issues with new softfork activation is that if not enough people (users and miners) upgrade to the newest Bitcoin software, the security of the new softfork rules are at risk. Upgrading software of any kind is always a risk, and the more software you build on top of the software-being-upgraded, the greater you risk your tower of software collapsing while you change its foundations. So if you have some complex Bitcoin-manipulating system with Bitcoin somewhere at the foundations, consider running two Bitcoin nodes:
One is a "stable-version" Bitcoin node. Once it has synced, set it up to connect=x.x.x.x to the second node below (so that your ISP bandwidth is only spent on the second node). Use this node to run all your software: it's a stable version that you don't change for long periods of time. Enable txiindex, disable pruning, whatever your software needs.
The other is an "always-up-to-date" Bitcoin Node. Keep its stoarge down with pruning (initially sync it off the "stable-version" node). You can't use blocksonly if your "stable-version" node needs to send transactions, but otherwise this "always-up-to-date" Bitcoin node can be kept as a low-resource node, so you can run both nodes in the same machine.
When a new Bitcoin version comes up, you just upgrade the "always-up-to-date" Bitcoin node. This protects you if a future softfork activates, you will only receive valid Bitcoin blocks and transactions. Since this node has nothing running on top of it, it is just a special peer of the "stable-version" node, any software incompatibilities with your system software do not exist. Your "stable-version" Bitcoin node remains the same version until you are ready to actually upgrade this node and are prepared to rewrite most of the software you have running on top of it due to version compatibility problems. When upgrading the "always-up-to-date", you can bring it down safely and then start it later. Your "stable-version" wil keep running, disconnected from the network, but otherwise still available for whatever queries. You do need some system to stop the "always-up-to-date" node if for any reason the "stable-version" goes down (otherwisee if the "always-up-to-date" advances its pruning window past what your "stable-version" has, the "stable-version" cannot sync afterwards), but if you are technically competent enough that you need to do this, you are technically competent enough to write such a trivial monitor program (EDIT: gmax notes you can adjust the pruning window by RPC commands to help with this as well). This recommendation is from gmaxwell on IRC, by the way.
In the past, I've (gasp) cooked ribs in the oven. Pork side ribs were on sale and I loaded up on 5.5kg for a bbq tomorrow: is the 3-2-1 method the best bet for side ribs?
Update Hey everyone at bbq. Wanted to say thanks for all the advice! The ribs turned out well, everyone loved them. I underestimated how much space the ribs would take, so I ended up having too many in the bbq (they were all touching) which meant that it was more of a 3-2-1.5 rather than 3-2-1 method. The method works really well, but I wouldn't do it again until I can buy better quality ribs than the side ribs on sale at Safeway, as they were very fatty and I felt that last time, when I did them in the oven, more of the fat was removed from them. Cheers for all the advice! (I used cherry smoking chips) end of update I have a large gas bbq which has a place to put wood chips on the side (though I have yet to try it), so I was planning on getting some hickory or cherry chips to smoke them with. A couple questions: With such a large quantity of ribs (I'm used to doing 1 or 2 racks), will I need to adjust cooking times? Do side ribs require a different cooking time? Can I use indirect heat? How do I prepare the wood chips? How long before smoking should I add the rub? Is clarified butter better than margarine? If I do clarified butter, can I add the remnants of the butter to mashed taters? Thanks everyone!
Flight is leaving at 3.15AM from Phuket ITNL and after some research, I've come to find that it's about a 45 minute drive from the main parts of the province.. Anybody know of any really cheap, reliable late night transportation other than taxis? Do the buses run this late? My conflict is that the flight is so early but I don't wanna have to spend the night at the airport to ensure I don't miss it. I wanna be able to do some of the night attractions ( not get super intoxicated or anything) and still be able to make it to the airport with more than enough time to catch the flight. Bottom line: What is the cheapest, best bet method of getting to the airport at such an abusrd time.. and still be able to make something out of my last night in Phuket??
You're converting your CS:GO sensitivity wrong, here is why.
UPDATED: This new FOV method is the ONLY way to achieve a near-perfect 1:1 conversion between both games, providing you are willing to loose (or gain in some situations) a little bit of screen real-estate. This will match your games' FOVs in terms of screen distances by taking advantage of Valorant's locked FOV. This is now my preferred method, and I'll leave it at the top. I've left the old post below if anyone can't handle loosing some screen real-estate. In the following few paragraphs, most use-cases are covered. I will create a set of custom resolutions to run Valorant at below. These should all be scaled 1:1 by your video card on your monitor (No Scaling, aka, no pixel stretching). If you have stretched CSGO, you are screwed, see the next paragraph. 4:3 non-streched users can rejoice, as can 16:9 users. 16:10 users can't use the FOV method, but get a reasonable multiplier, and aren't entirely screwed, but its not as good news as the 16:9 and 4:3 non-stretched users who get heaps of options. For non-streched users, these will all use the standard 3.18 divider for your CSGO sensitivity, as we have matched FOV, and we can happily match 360 rotations AND achieve perfect on-screen distance for aim. If you don't want to have any black bars on the horizontal, just match the vertical resolution to the same as CSGO. I believe this will give you some vertical sensitivity error though (eg: instead of using 3622x2038 in Valorant in the first example in the resolution list below, I could just use 3622x2160 and accept some vertical error, but only take on side black bars, with no top and bottom black bars. Valorant will look a little more distorted though too). If you can't figure it out with other weirder CSGO configs, feel free to request, and I can give it a go, but I have already spent a lot of time on this and would rather let people start reporting them in. If you really can't figure it out, ask and let me know. STRETCH USER: Note to users who take a CSGO 4:3 native ratio/resolution and stretch it out to fill a 16:9 or 16:10 monitor: TLDR: Stretched CSGO users are screwed. Nothing can be done, and as I said near the bottom of my original post, this is your punishment for sweating over fat terrorists your whole life. It is IMPOSSIBLE to salvage the same FOV in valorant. You have an hFOV of 90 in CS, stretched out to take up your whole screen real-estate. You need to somehow get Valorant's hFOV from 103 down to 90. You can't. You would have to somehow superscale the game past the edge of your monitor, and clip its wings, loosing much of your HUD, and I also have no idea how you could even render it like that. For these users, either use the original 3.18 value, or 2.53 if you want your horizontal distance to match. See my footnote for stretched users way below (2.53 will FUBAR your vertical sens for Valorant, and give you radically wrong 360 motion.). There is no ideal solution for stretch CS users. For most stretch users, I would recommend the 3.18 value as a starting point and learning the new sensitivity. Any data I presented was based on Non stretch conversions. Stretch conversions has the same kind of error gradient that emerges, but radically worse. CUSTOM RESOLUTIONS FOR VALORANT TO MAINTAIN A 1:1 FOV CONVERSION WITH CSGO: CSGO NOT STRETCHED, 1:1 implies pixel perfect scaling. Pixel doubling would also be ok (using resolutions half the amount of your monitors native). If you are not 1:1, or 2:1 with pixels, it might still work as long as the ratios are the same, depending on how your graphics card behaves. Not listed below? If your CSGO VERTICAL resolution is listed below, then pick any one that has the same vertical res as you, regardless of horizontal, and find the valorant conversion. They all become the same, because csgo just clips your horizontal anyway. Simple formula!!!: Take your csgo vertical resolution (the 1080 in 1920x1080 for example): Times by 0.9428793 = new Valorant horizontal res Times by 1.67622932 = new Valorant vertical res Thank you to x_Delirium in this following post for the math (I adapted his math to figure out the vertical constant without needing to use mouse-sensitivity.com): https://www.reddit.com/VALORANT/comments/fw5nb9/guide_how_to_get_valorant_103_fov_in_csgo/ Common list already done for you, rounded to nearest whole and even numbers: CSGO: 3840×2160 1:1 16:9 -> Valorant: 3620x2036 1:1 CSGO: 2880x2160 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant: 3620x2036 1:1 CSGO: 2560x1440 1:1 16:9 -> Valorant: 2414x1358 1:1 CSGO: 1920x1440 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant: 2414x1358 1:1 CSGO: 1920x1080 1:1 16:9 -> Valorant: 1810x1018 1:1 **\* CSGO: 1440x1080 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant: 1810x1018 1:1 **\* CSGO: 1366x1080 1:1 ??? -> Valorant: 1810x1018 1:1 **\* CSGO: 1280x960 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant: 1610x906 1:1 CSGO: 1024x768 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant: 1288x724 1:1 CSGO: 1280x720 1:1 16:9 -> Valorant 1206x678 1:1 CSGO: 960x720 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant 1206x678 1:1 CSGO: 640x480 1:1 4:3 -> Valorant 804x452 1:1 **\* See how if you use a blackbar res that isn't 4:3, you can get 1:1 with valorant by finding a res above that matches your csgo VERTICAL res, here, that res is 1080. A decent guide for custom rez creation: https://appuals.com/how-to-create-custom-resolutions-on-windows-7-8-or-10/ 16:10 Native USERS CSGO: Any 1:1 16:10 NATIVE Resolution -> Valorant IMPOSSIBLE. You only have 100.39 degrees of FOV in CSGO, and you have no more monitor horizontal space to work with to give Valorant room to breathe. It is the same fundamental problem the stretch users are facing. If you use 16:10 on a monitor natively, but somehow have horizontal black bars (this would be weird and unlikely) then it might be possible to do something. For 16:10 users, your best bet is to just use 3.18 or 3.037 (based on my original post's logic) as your sens divider, and see what you prefer, or use something in between. Fortunately for you, 3.037 is a decent multiplier that won't fuck your vertical sense, or 360 too badly. It is pretty much as good as the 3.370 multiplier that 16:9 users who don't want to match FOV can use. 16:9 USERS NOT WILLING TO CHANGE THEIR SCREEN REAL-ESTATE TO MATCH FOV The divider value I originally posed as being better than 3.18: 3.370 Not everyone will agree, no problem. Consider 3.18 to 3.37 as the sensitivity region you may like. If you pick one, and something feels wrong, try the other. Yes, my original claim about 3.18 being the downright wrong choice is alarmist. Some people will reasonably prefer one or the other, and there are merits to both choices, as I pointed out all along. Now back to the ideal FOV changing method, and how this ideal FOV matching method works: CSGO maintains a variable horizontal FOV depending on resolution ratio width, and at 16:9, it is 106.260205, and maintains 73.739795 vertical FOV, LOCKED. At more boxed resolutions/ratios, the sides get sliced off, and you loose hFOV. You never lose vFOV Valorant maintains a tight 103 horizontal FOV, and ~ 70.5328 vertical FOV. BOTH locked. I've tested this in game by wildly changing ratios and custom resolutions. The game image will always distort to maintain the H and V FOV. We can use this to our advantage to distort Valorant into a screen space that matches what those angles and distances would be in CSGO. Valorant is basically just a slightly zoomed in image compared to CSGO, so now we are going to zoom it out on our monitor a bit to match it. I originally did some incorrect math to convert this (didn't use trig...). There is a simpler way using the mouse-sensitivity website. I'll run through what I did for my screen (2560x1440). This should be correct providing the mouse-sensitivity equations are correct behind the scene, and I do trust that they are. (This is redundant now. I used the trig to get the constants. See near the res list to the easiest method possible). Select CSGO as your game. Set sens and DPI. Set res to 2560x1440 (or your native res of CSGO). Start to adjust the 2560 number until it closes in on 103 degrees actual hFOV at the data readout. 2414 pixels is the spot... We just found out what our horizontal res needs to be for valorant (with some small black bars) to match perfectly to csgo, seeming valorant will lock at 103 hFOV no matter what. You could stop there, and it would be pretty good. Horizontal aim and 360 degree matching is now near pixel perfect. I haven't proven this, but I believe your vertical aim will still be off though. So let's do the same for vertical matching: Now, convert to Valorant as the output. Set the above horizontal res number just found (2416) as your Valorant res. Now adjust the Valorant vertical res number, until Actual vFOV output closes in on 70.5328. This is taking advantage of what I believe is actually a bug on the Valorant data on the website: it thinks valorant's vFOV can change, even though it can't, so we can use it to figure out what pixel count will salvage our smaller vFOV with black bars. I believe for me, 1358 is that number. If they fix this, we will loose the ability to easily match this using the website (redundant now, we can just use the trig derived constants instead of the website. See above the Res list). Redundant: However, it will still be possible to do by matching it until the vertical distance based sensitivities are the same as the 360 degree rotation sensitivities, but it won't be quite as precise or easy, and will require payment on the site. It is plausible that the vertical component of this is slightly off, but I can't see how or why, and if it is, it would be a tiny deviation. If anyone wants to do the math manually to check, please do. We now have a new resolution 2414x1358. Set this with NVIDIA control panel, (or AMD, not familiar with it though) as a custom res, and use it in valorant. Divide your csgo sens by 3.18, or use the default (and free) 360 match on the website (it is doing the same division, just more decimals), and use that. Set scope multiplier to 0.747, or set/leave to preference (see closer to bottom of my original post far below). I still use 0.747. A near perfect 1:1 experience between both games is now achieved within a tiny and imperceptible margin of error. All we have done is matched Valorant to fill 103 degrees of CSGO's 106.26xxx screen real-estate on the horizontal (talking from a 16:9 perspective), and 70.5328 degrees of CSGOs 73.73xxx on the vertical. You may have lost about 11% of your screen real-estate. Effectively, it is like playing CSGO with a little bit of the top, bottom and sides of your screen sheered off. The benefit is a near perfect match in horizontal and vertical behaviour at both the aimer, all the way through to 360 degree movement, a 1:1 match. If you just do the black bars at the sides, your vertical sensitivity will be the same as when using the 360 method, so slightly off, but you've salvaged your horizontal sens completely. Add the vertical black bars, and it should be perfect all-round. If you use a 4:3 CSGO native resolution, you will GAIN screen real-estate in order to match FOV. A few notes. This does NOT significantly distort Valorant from a native 16:9 (providing you are coming from 16:9 CSGO). Things look absolutely fine. You will almost certainly need to run on Fullscreen mode for it to function well. Windowed mode would work too, but leave your desktop in the wings. Fullscreen Windowed doesn't work for me, it just stretches it back out to full screen. Are there any negatives to the FOV method in terms of perception and aim? Well, your perception may hinge somewhat on the moving region of the screen being identical in both games. However, I think it most likely that matching FOV, and distances on your monitor, sitting roughly equidistant at all times, and having everything else perfect, will be by far the most successful method for the vast majority of users transitioning between games. I personally have also clipped CSGO now to give it 103 FOV on the horizontal instead of 106.26 (giving me the same vertical black bars between both games) for the utmost consistency. So the only difference between the two games is Valorant has some horizontal black bars. Doing this of course didn't impact my sensitivity in CSGO at all, it just clips the image at the sides a little, giving me some black bars. Remember, CSGO's horizontal FOV is variable based on resolution. My CSGO res: 2416x1440 native black bar ~ 103x73 FOV blackbars on sides My valorant res: 2416x1358 ~ 103x70 FOV blackbars on sides, top and bottom. Hopefully that makes sense. If you refuse to loose a bit of screen real estate, this is my original post below which uses a different divider that prioritises screen distance instead of 360 degree rotation as the method of matching sensitivities between both games. Both my number below, and the original 3.18 number (without doing what I propose above) will have significant errors, in different parts of your aiming. I argue that my number is better if you want to match your aim. It won't feel right for everyone, and some still preferred 3.18, which is perfectly reasonable. I personally now will be using my above method of matching FOV for a 1:1 match, making this entire section obsolete. THE ORIGINAL POST WITH THE ORIGINAL VALUES THAT CAN RECOVER SOME OF YOUR AIM IF IT WAS FEELING OFF, FOR THOSE NOT WILLING TO LOOSE SOME SCREEN REAL-ESTATE: IMPORTANT EDIT: This new number can change depending on your game window ratio. If you are not using the simple 16:9 to 16:9 conversion, proceed with caution. This is largely, although not just, due to how valorant distorts to maintain its 103 hFOV. However, it should be ok if neither game is distorted. So black bars 4:3 CS is ok, as long as valorant is 16:9. I encourage you to head to mouse-sensitivity.com to get a more reliable value using 0% horizontal distance as your match if there is any deviation from these norms. It will cost $3. To anyone I recommended a value to NOT using 16:9, it may be wrong. Apologies. I have a caveat about stretch to non-stretch conversions in a footnote you need to be aware of if deploying this. TLDR: The normal method is to divide your CSGO sens by 3.18. This doesn't actually give you correct aim, only a correct abstract sense of movement in the world. Divide by the below instead: 16:9 CSGO to 16:9 Valorant (Native to native): 3.370 4:3 CSGO blackbar non-streched to 16:9 Valorant: 3.370 4:3 CSGO STRETCHED to 16:9 Valorant (Don't fuck with valorant here, it won't behave how you hope): 2.53 PEOPLE USING STRETCHED CONVERSIONS, SEE THE FOOTNOTE BEFORE ASKING QUESTIONS PLEASE :) TLDR IS THAT ALL OPTIONS SUCK AND YOU REALLY MAY WANT TO JUST STICK WITH 3.18. Ideal, and common scope multipliers are given at the bottom in the scope footnote. For any other weird options, again, pay and go do the work at mouse-sensitivity.com Yes, using 3.370 will 'feel' a little slower to get around in Valorant now compared to 3.18, at worst about 6% slower in fact, but your aim is more likely to be left in tact. Use whatever you prefer though. Just giving people another option and some stats to what the difference is. Keep reading if you want to know why these proposed conversions (really just the 3.370 one) are technically "better" than 3.18: This is the bulk of my original post: ORIGINAL POST AND PROOFING: People are under the impression that they should be converting their sensitivity from CS:GO by dividing their CS:GO sensitivity by 3.18... People think this will give them the same sensitivity, thus muscle memory, between the games. They are (kind of) wrong. This will only give you the same sense of traversing the game world, as it matches the amount of distance required to move your mouse for a 360 degree rotation. BUT, due to the FOV difference between the two games of 3.26 degrees, you will not have the same feeling of SENSITIVITY. Here is the result of some math as to why. How far do I have to move my mouse, in order to get from where my crosshair is, to where that enemies head is on my screen? You can only achieve a perfect conversion between the two games at ONE point on your monitor. ONE distance. And I can tell you, the 360 degree rotation conversion is wildly off, unless you intend to do a few rotations first in order to hit someone in the head. I ran the math, and the correct point to calibrate to on your screen is almost certainly 0%, right at the crosshair, making subtle movements at the crosshair (in order to target enemies near your crosshair) perfect between both games. Many may already be aware of this, but it is interesting to understand why. Ok, if we use the 0% conversion, we end up with a 1:1 SENSITIVITY match between CS:GO and Valorant AT THE CROSSHAIR. Great, but what about points AWAY from the middle of my screen? Well, things gradually get worse the further the distance, and I will provide the percentage of deviation from a perfect match between the special 0% mark, and the very edge of your monitor, if you set at this 0% mark, and I include the error in doing a 360 too. %distance from edge of screen to crosshair with 0% reference: % error in ideal conversion from CSGO at 0% reference What do we notice? Perfect conversion (within a few units of error not shown) within a full 15% distance from crosshair to edge of your screen. And very low error, less than 1%, all the way up to 50% distance to edge of screen. This is the hot spot region of aiming. If you are flicking to the VERY edge of your screen, 100% of the way, you have a 2.89% error. Achieving a 360 degree rotation has a 6.02% error, so moving around the game world will feel a bit slower compared to CS:GO, but your aim is comparatively left in tact. A 180 will have about a 5.78% error according to my best calculations. To compare, lets check the error at each aiming location using the 360 degree as our baseline, the common method where one divides their CS:GO sens by 3.18... %distance from edge of screen to crosshair at 360 rotation reference: % error in ideal conversion from CSGO 360 rotation reference We can see, our 0% distance from edge of screen naturally carries the most error with this method. The aiming hotspot is the WORST translated region. Only a 360 spin is well conserved, NOT your aim. Even aiming to the edge of the screen at 100% carries a (slightly) higher error of 2.95 compared to matching your aim to the 0% mark (2.89% error). At 120% distance from your crosshair (heading offscreen by 20%) the methods switch place, and the 360 degree method becomes less error prone compared to 0% matching. So, unless you intend your muscle memory to be all about matching for flicking to targets OFFSCREEN, you should absolutely NOT be using the default division by 3.181818.... Match instead to 0%, and divide your CS:GO sensitivity by 3.370 (This is accurate to +- 0.001 units of Valorant sensitivity). This will give you a cleaner conversion in the region of your monitor from 0% to about 115% off your screen, with the MOST conserved sensitivity region being closest to your crosshair. What is better... for your near-crosshair aiming to carry a 5.68% error? Or a 180 spin to carry about the same amount of error while your key crosshair region carries between none to 1% error. You get the latter with the division I provided above. It seems to me a no-brainer as the better option. SCOPE FOOTNOTE: As for your scope multiplier? Unfortunately, at this time you can only correct for one zoom level. I use the 2.5x zoom, to correct the scopes to the same 0% level of my valorant sensitivity, and if you correct as I have said, using the superior 0% CSGO conversion, you will also end up with your scopes behaving the same between CS:GO and valorant. Otherwise, they too will carry the error over from the 360 degree conversion. These values are below (assuming you use 3.370 as your division initially, things get wonky if you want to keep to your 360 degree rotation conservation, yet want your scopes to somehow match). These are independent of your sens. I think the default of 1.0 in Valorant is equivalent to calibrating all of them to the edge of your screen, 100% by distance. This is, at least, a consistent behaviour. I personally still change it to 0.747. SCOPE: To correct the 2.5x valorant scope: 0.747 This = ~ 0.82 from CSGO. Specifically0.818933 A note about scope multipliers: The ideal provided above is for matching your scope movement to distance via the exact same logic as presented for matching the two games, at 0% distance. A few other common scope mulits that people like: CSGO 1.2 = 1.142 Valorant CSGO 1.0 = 0.927 Valorant ALL these values are dependent on using 3.370 as your primary sensitivity divider, and not 3.18. Otherwise, your scopes will carry the error of the primary sens. If using different stretched values, these scoped values should still work ON THE HORIZON. Remember, stretched conversions cook your vertical sensitivity, and you can't do anything about it. Hopefully Valorant releases the ability to tune every scope/ADS level individually, because right now, every other ADS will be a bit off compared to the ideal 2.5x scope. But still closer than the default 1.0 value. For example, the 1.25x ADS of the vandal etc should be set to 0.870, and will be a bit slow with the 0.747 setting. Yes, scope values can, although not always, change if you deviate from the default 16:9 to 16:9. STRETCHED GO TO VALORANT FOOTNOTE (or vice versa, non-stretched to stretched): Converting from stretched to any Valorant can COOK your vertical sens. Nothing can be done, this is your punishment for sweating over fat terrorists your whole life. The divider for 4:3 stretched to Valorant is generically 2.53. Any divider that deviates from 3.18 will increasingly add error to your 360 degree movement. This means that the with a stretch value you end up with a much greater error ramp through the distances, even though your 0% and nearby is correct. I don't have the percentages of error, and I can't be bothered running them, but expect it to be awful. Not to mention, you can't salvage horizontal AND vertical sens anyway with thiscombination, so it still won't feel right. My recommendation for these users is to match to the 360 or nearby (divide by 3.18), tune to personal preference, and learn the new sensitivity, sorry. If you are doing more bizarre conversions, go pay $3 and figure it out at mouse-sensitivity.com using 0% horizontal monitor distance as your hipfire conversion method. Or tune to 3.18 manually, because just like the above, you can't salvage your old sensitivity with varying stretch conversions to any point that won't feel awful on the vertical and 360 movements. BETTER DATA: For the data folk, this much more complete and accurate set of data will give you the error to each point of the screen given a calibration at a specific point. You'll notice at the bottom, all multipliers to use said distance is provided. You'll notice I've used actually the 15% distance as the default, this is because it is a simpler number (3.37) and it actually will give you, almost 100% of the time, the exact same sensitivity as 0% anyway (3.374). However, if you want to have minimum error across the whole visible space, then you actually want to use 50% as your target point (3.334) BUT the error around the crosshair, at 0-15%, is no longer negligible, even though, in reality, across the whole screen, you could consider this the best choice. Sum of the error is of course absolute values. 360 Rot is provided for comparison of error in these regions against the default 3.18(2) method. https://preview.redd.it/z9yz28m5nm451.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e8e88596e7c77faae03c7caf112deef96b0605f DISCLAIMER: I made extensive use of the mouse-sensitivity.com website for gathering all data points involved in these calculations. I did not do any of the math to generate those data points myself, just the analysis. Check them out, and consider giving them some cash if any of this ended up making things better for you. It's a great site.
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FIRE and Kids – The cost of raising children in Australia
This post has been inspired by this recent podcast featuring three of the biggest names in the Aussie FIRE blogging community, and the follow on discussions in the Aussie Firebug Facebook group about how much it costs to raise kids in Australia. As all three acknowledge they don’t have kids so it’s not something they really have any experience with. As someone who has two young kids I thought it would be useful to write about it from my perspective. Obviously my situation isn’t the same as everyone else’s, there are plenty of people who would be horrified with how much we’ve spent, and others who would wonder how we manage to spend so little. Everyone’s situation is different, so what works for my family wouldn’t necessarily work or others. My oldest child has only just started school this year so I can’t really speak from experience beyond the 0-5yo age range, but I’ll talk through some of the typical costs, what we have and haven’t spent money on so far, and what we’re anticipating in the future. The costs people actually talk about The first two things that almost always come up when people start talking about the cost of babies are prams and carseats. Yes, you can spend a lot of money on these things if you want to, prams in particular. From a quick look at Baby Bunting the most expensive pram there is nearly 3 thousand dollars, and I’m betting that with a few accessories you can easily get over that mark. No, you do not need to spend that much on a pram. Yes you can probably pick one up on the cheap from Kmart or Target etc for well under a hundred bucks, but it’s probably not going to be as sturdy or hold much of the gear you take with you. Happily a pram is also the sort of thing where you can pretty easily and safely pick one up secondhand or get a hand me down from someone else. We bought a Babyzen Yoyo, which is basically a small sized pram although it still has enough storage room for us. It folds up so that you can take it on a plane as carry on luggage, is quite light, extremely maneuverable and very sturdy. I’ve taken it running plenty of times, it’s even got a Parkrun PB of 22:06! This thing is absolutely gold. Unfortunately it’s priced as though it’s made of it as well. There wasn’t an option to get one second hand because it had only just been released so we had to pay full whack. I think we spent over a thousand dollars on it including all the accessories and the lie flat and sit up seats etc. It was worth every cent. It’s been going for 5 years and 2 kids and is still in great shape, we’ve never had a problem with it at all. My wife tells me it is one of the best things I have ever bought her, although we both use it obviously. And at the end of the day a one off cost of $1,000 for us as a family is going to have basically zero impact on when we hit FIRE. Plugging the numbers into a compound interest calculator and using 7% annual return over 30 years I miss out on $8,000, which is about a month worth of returns on my target portfolio. I can live with delaying retirement one month for about 5 cumulative years of having a really good pram that works great for us. Similarly you can spend a fair chunk of money on car seats. This is one of those things that I wouldn’t want to get second hand because you can’t see if they’ve been broken or not and safety is a huge priority for us and presumably everyone else. Happily car seats don’t tend to cost that much, you can pick one up for a couple hundred bucks or less pretty easily. If you do that it tends to be one for a much shorter age range, say 0-2yrs whereas I think you can get ones which will take your kid from 0-8 but they cost a lot more. In any case per kid you’re probably looking at a thousand bucks total, and this could easily be a lot less. Again it’s not going to make any appreciable different to us reaching FIRE. So as easy as it is to point at this sort of stuff as being ridiculously expensive and over priced etc, it’s really not going to make much of a difference to most people. Sure you don’t want to spend any more money than you have to, but you also want to make sure you’re getting something that works for you. The other one off costs There are also a bunch of one off costs for babies and young kids like cots, beds, mattresses, baby carriers etc. From what I’ve been told you want to buy a baby mattress new, but that’s only about a hundred bucks at Target, potentially cheaper elsewhere. We have an Ikea cot which cost about the same, you could easily get one second hand or likely for free just by asking around your friends who will probably be delighted to get it out of their house. Some people do co-sleeping in which case you don’t need the cot and mattress although you may like to kid yourself that your baby will actually sleep in their own bed, maybe even through the night. It’s nice to pretend sometimes! As kids get older you’ll need a proper bed for them, again you can probably pick this up second hand pretty cheap and a mattress can be easily had for a couple hundred bucks. So none of these things are really going to have much of an impact so long as you’re a decent saver already. The big costs you see When you don’t have kids it can be great to live in a studio flat or one bedroom apartment in the inner city close to all the bars and restaurants and all the rest of it. You can stay in your local area and have plenty to keep you entertained, there is probably a supermarket nearby and plenty of public transport so you may not need a car either. Once you have kids, it’s likely going to be a different story as your priorities change. It may be that you’re happy renting with kids, but lots of people tend to prioritise stability and security when they have kids and that means owning your own home in most cases. I’m not saying everyone will want this, but a lot of people will. So now that you have kids you almost certainly want a second bedroom and if you’re planning on having more kids maybe a third or fourth etc. Obviously kids can share bedrooms for a while at least but sooner or later they will probably want their own space, as will you. You’ll also be wanting parks with playgrounds nearby and somewhere you can easily take your kids for a walk or kick a football around, ideally in a good school district which can add a couple hundred thousand dollars to the cost all by itself if you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. And if you want to live somewhere cheaper but send the kids to a good private school, well that can cost anywhere from the low thousands to multiple tens of thousands per year. Similarly if you didn’t have a car before, you will very likely want one now. I’ve mentioned before that we drive a base model Corolla which works just fine for us so far, but you’re still probably looking at $20k plus if you buy one new, mid teens if you want one used. If you want an SUV or a luxury model car, be prepared to fork out a lot more. In the same vein if you were previously going on lots of holidays and plan to keep doing so, well you now have at least one more plane ticket to buy, might need a bigger hotel room etc. As I talked about in this post about big ticket items, that all comes at a real cost. We bought land and built a house, so I can say that we spent roughly $100,000 more on that than we would have otherwise. The ongoing costs There are also a bunch of ongoing costs for kids as well. They need to be fed, they need clothes and shoes, they need medicine, and a bunch of other stuff that costs money. I wrote here about a bunch of things that we do to keep costs down, but the reality is that you still have to fork over a decent chunk of change. On top of all that contrary to what you might have been told public school is not free, there are a bunch of things that you have to chip in for here as well. We’re not at the stage that we’re forking out a fortune in extra utility bills etc but we certainly use the washing machine a lot more than we would if we didn’t have kids, there are extra lights and tvs etc on so there are extra costs there as well. There are also a bunch of extra items that you don’t really need to spend, but probably will. For us this includes stuff like swimming lessons, some sports like AusKick (AFL) and Junior Blasters (cricket), occasionally taking them to a theme park or zoo etc. They also get birthday and Christmas presents, and if they get invited to other kids parties they take a store bought gift with them. The above is about what I think our 5yo costs us at the moment based on our spending, our 2yo is probably about two thirds of that due mostly to her not eating as much and not getting swimming lessons yet, as well as not being in school or doing sports. I’ve left the holiday line blank because this is hugely variable. Last year we did a trip to the UK and it probably cost us about $3,000 extra between the two of them, next time it will be another couple thousand dollars more because the youngest one will need her own seat rather being on someone’s lap for the flights. So our spending for our eldest is about two thirds of the costs quoted in this article for a 6yo girl, I would assume that apart from a boy maybe eating a bit more the costs should be fairly similar. The main difference compared to our costs seem to be education and transport. Also, it was somewhat shocking to me just how expensive swimming lessons are! This is actually at our local council aquatic centre and is the cheapest in town. We do get to use the pool whenever we want, but that only tends to be once or twice a week at most. At least the lessons will hopefully only be for a few years for each child, although after that we may be forking out for something else instead. The hidden cost of kids The biggest cost is often actually one that doesn’t show up as an expense, the opportunity cost of one parent giving up paid employment entirely for a while or doing part time hours (I’ve used the phrase giving up paid employment here because looking after kids and a house is definitely work!). If we say that you’re giving up a full time paid job that’s at minimum wage of roughly $20 an hour for 40 hours a week, 48 weeks a year, then that’s $38,400 a year ($33,605 after tax and medicare levy) that the family is giving up for however long this goes on for. If you’d otherwise be earning more than that, then the opportunity cost each year is even higher. On top of that there is the hit to your career and future earnings, because those are definitely going to be impacted as well. If you’ve got two kids that are separated by two or three years and you as a family want a parent at home until they go to school, well that’s 7 or 8 years of missing out on that money which works out as around $250k based on a full time minimum wage job. I’m pretty hopeful that my wife would be earning more than minimum wage as well so for us it’s even more than that. On the plus side, she gets to spend more time with the kids although that probably feels like a mixed blessing some of the time! Alternatively if both parents want to keep working then there will likely be childcare costs for the first 4 or 5 years and then before and after school care, as well as missing out on spending time with their kids. Because we haven’t gone down this route I don’t know exactly how much it costs, I do hear plenty of stories about it being $100 a day minimum around where I live and it’s a lot more in capital cities. There are subsidies available for this, but you can pretty easily be spending tens of thousands each year on childcare while they’re young and then once they’re old enough before and after school care. You may be lucky enough to have grandparents or other family nearby that are happy to help out with this if they live nearby, but that won’t apply to everyone and it’s unlikely to reduce the cost entirely. The costs that are yet to come At the moment our kids are still young and fairly inexpensive. Between the two of them they tend to eat roughly what a grown adult eats, but from what I’ve been told that will change fairly dramatically as they get older. They’ll need new clothes more frequently, more shoes, potentially play more sports, go on more school excursions, you get the idea. Education could be another factor. There is a public high school that will be built in the next few years quite close by, and assuming that it’s decent our kids will likely be going there. But if it’s not, then we’ll have to look into private schools which can cost anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands. There will be extra curricular stuff as well. Given my wife and I are both horrible at music it seems unlikely that our kids will be doing extra lessons there, but there are plenty of other areas like sport or extra educational activities that we’d be considering. I know a few parents who have kids who are in elite sports programs (as in regional or state teams) and the costs here can very quickly add up, likewise if extra education is needed or wanted then that’ll be an extra expense. Government and other assistance I know that depending on your circumstances that there can be government assistance in the form of Family Tax Benefit, childcare subsidy and possibly other programs as well. We don’t get any of these which is fine, we don’t need them and they are presumably meant to be for those who do. If you’re not sure if you should be getting any of these then Centrelink does have this payment finder. We did get the one day a week Kinder program for 3yos and 3 days a week Kinder program for 4yos, although these both also came with costs of roughly $1,500 a year so it actually cost us money, again this is fine, just a reminder that it isn’t actually free. Depending on your employer you may also be able to get parental leave for a while, and there is a minimum payment which they have to make so long as you’ve met some requirements. Some employers may also have some continuing support with subsidised childcare and the like. None of this was applicable to our situation but at least some of it will likely be available for others. So what’s the bottom line? For us the biggest actual one off cost so far has been the bigger house and land that we purchased because we wanted our kids to be able to have plenty of space inside and outside the house. That cost about a hundred thousand dollars more than we would have paid if it were just the two of us. All the other stuff like a pram, car seats, cots/beds, mattresses and all the rest of it have been maybe $5,000 total, which is tiny by comparison. The opportunity cost has been bigger than this though. When we had our first child when we were in Hong Kong my wife wasn’t working much anyway as there just weren’t that many jobs she could do and my wage easily supported both of us so she was doing some very casual part time work and so not doing that work afterwards didn’t impact us much. In Australia though she probably would have been earning at least $40,000 a year after tax, so we’ve foregone almost $200,000 on an after tax basis there. Which as I’m sure you can imagine has a pretty big impact on when we will hit FIRE, particularly given we’ve got another few years or her not being in paid employment at all and then likely only working part time after that. So I would guess we’ll be looking at forgone earnings of at least $500,000 by the time all is said and done, and it could quite easily be a lot more. The actual ongoing costs of the kids so far haven’t been too bad. Between the two of them it’s about $8,000 a year at the moment, although we would anticipate that this will go up a fair bit over time as they start eating more and getting into more extra curricular activities. I get that this is spending that isn’t a necessity, but do I really want my kids to miss out on a bunch of fun stuff so that I can retire a year or two earlier? No, no I do not. So far the total costs look something like this. You can see that by far the biggest cost has been the earnings that we’ve missed out on because my wife has been at home looking after the kids and doing the household stuff (yes I do some of it because I think it’s important that we share the jobs and to role model stuff for the kids, but the reality is that she is at home a lot more than I am and does more of it). Buying a bigger house and land is next, and the actual costs of feeding and clothing and all the other one off stuff for the kids is a tiny proportion of the actual cost. All up I’m hopeful that we can keep the ongoing costs to somewhere between $125k and $150k per child from birth through to age 18, although if private school is necessary then that will push up the costs a fair bit. This is less than half of what this article suggests, so although it sounds like a lot of money it’s actually fairly frugal by comparison. To put it in perspective, it’s basically spending about 7 or 8 grand a year on each child. There are plenty of people out there who spend more than that on food alone, let alone the rest of their living expenses. As I said earlier travel costs are on top of this, and this can increase the costs quite a lot! Travel is a huge part of the reason we’re pursuing HIFIRE, and we want to be taking the kids on plenty of holidays while they’re growing up. That’s obviously discretionary spending to a large extent, but we do have close family living overseas who we want to see every couple of years or so, and it’s not fair to expect them to always be the ones travelling. I would guess that we’ll be looking at about $50k per kid in travel costs by the time they turn 18. That’s about 3 grand a year, which doesn’t sound wrong based on the cost of international travel. It may be less than that which would be great, but could also be a fair bit more. So all up for the two kids we’re looking at about a million dollars from birth to age 18. About half of that is the foregone wages from not working, which is by far the biggest impact. The actual cost of the kids is about another 30%, then travel is 10%, another 10% for the bigger house and land. And then right at the end is less than 1% for the one off stuff like prams and baby seats and cots etc. How could we spend less? Obviously there are other things we could be doing instead to keep the cost down. The biggest expense is the wages that aren’t being earned because my wife is looking after the kids and the household stuff. We could have chosen to have her work and instead pay for childcare and after school care etc. If we did though then she wouldn’t get to spend as much time with the kids (which she tells would be welcome some of the time!) and there would be a lot more house work and shopping that would need to be done after work or on weekends for both of us, we’d potentially eat out more often as it’d be more of a hassle cooking meals each night, as well as a bunch of other tradeoffs. So having her stay at home was our preferred method, and thankfully we’re in the financial position where we can afford to do it that way. Other people make different choices, or they’re unfortunately not in a position to make a choice, they need both partners working or if they’re a single parent have to do it this way. We could have also gone with a smaller house and less of a backyard. I shared a bedroom with my brother for part of our childhood and we both managed fine. It’s not ideal, but it’s certainly doable, and we could have saved a lot of money by having a smaller house. Again we chose not to because we wanted a bigger house and a decent sized backyard for them to be able to run around in and we can afford it. We don’t have to travel, although it’d be a bit rough expecting family to travel overseas to see us every year or two and then not reciprocating. Still, that would save a fair amount of money. It’s pretty hard to say how things will work out with the actual costs of raising the kids. I know roughly what we’ve spent so far, but it’s pretty difficult to know what we’ll be spending in future as they get older. They’re likely to be eating a fair bit more food, s they grow they’ll need new clothes and shoes, they’ll presumably be playing sport and doing other extra curricular stuff which will all cost money. $150k per kid from 0 to 18 seems like it’s a lot less than what it costs most people, but then we already live a fair bit more cheaply than most others so maybe it’s about right. At the end of the day we’re happy with the choices that we’ve made so far, but there has certainly been some room to have spent less money than what we have, or to have had more money coming in through both of us being in paid employment. Obviously it has an impact on when we will hit our FIRE number, but I’d rather take a little bit longer to get there than to make different tradeoffs along the way. Have you got kids or are thinking about having them? How do you think it will impact on your FIRE journey? Original post with pretty charts, pictures, tables etc is here.
Pat appreciation post | Regarding some negative comments
Ok, so I've been around the community for a long time now. And my guess is: we are all here because we love the series. And yet a lot of people are more than ready to badmouth Rothfuss for the delay of book three. I'm sure you've seen it again and again, to the point that it's a subreddit rule "No circlejerk/complaints about book 3." Because I find this sort of complaint very disheartening and because I believe it comes from a place of ignorance, I'm making this post to show some of what goes on in a creative mind, and maybe help contextualise it for those who keep on saying these sorts of things. In case you didn't know, Pat wrote the entire story as a single book. Which means he already has most of the big conflicts, the plot points thought out. So that is that, you can be assured that the resolution you want exists somewhere. Beyond that, though, we already know that a manuscript for The Doors of Stone exists. (I'm afraid the original source was in google+ which no longer exists, but someone posted a picture of it here) Than, shall we start at the beginning? Why is it we love the series? Well, it's the amalgamation of things (or it could be none of these):
the main character is a escape valve for lots of us, who partly see ourselves in them, partly just escape through him into this story with great continuous sense of accomplishment
the world is really rich and immersive
it's unique in it's approach
it has lots of mysteries for us to puzzle
the prose is great
the words are picked very carefully and any or all of them could carry great meaning and purpose
it has great reread value
And all of this sums up to one thing: we love these works because of the great zeal that the author, Patrick Rothfuss, applies into his work to make it just perfect, or at the very least, as perfect as he is humanly capable of. These feelings are clearly stated in his books, specially book one. Heck, it is his acknowledgement to his father:
"And to my father, who taught me that if I was going to do something, I should take my time and do it right."
This is the level of writing we've come to expect. This is the standard he has set himself to, the bar he has to reach each and every time he sets out to write anything that relates to this world. It is more so the case when it comes to the last instance of this particular series, because the existing work demands it. He can't just tell us what is supposed to happen, he can't simply come disabuse us of all our extrapolations and simply confirm and deny our theories, and be done with the day. That was not what he set out to do, and it is not what either us or him think we deserve. But that creates a lot of pressure. And Pat is just human. The series was his debut work. How many authors out there can claim to have started with as much success as Pat did? Not many (if any, I don't know, I'm not one to search into author's lives, Pat is the exception). But this enormous amount of success and critical acclaim has not come without it's costs, it was not all flowers. Pat struggled to deal with the fame and what came with it. Sure, some people take that in strides, Pat was not one of them. What began as a rockstar moment for him came with a tool he was not mentally prepared to deal with. It came with the pressure to deliver book three. The pressure to live up to the expectations. The pressure to write just as well as he did in the past. Most people can tell from experience that pressure makes things harder. Those questions you were acing on the mock test suddenly go blank when it's the real thing. Sure, creative writing is not a test, it doesn't have right and wrong answers. But that makes it that much harder, there's no place you can consult to say: "this is the accurate sequence for the events previously written", or "this follows the correct method for creating a character arc", or "this choice of words, as per the thesaurus, produce the right tone for your narrative". If creativity followed formulas and steps by steps, it wouldn't be creativity. I'm not saying that you can't follow tried and true methods, or it would be impossible for Sanderson to give lessons on writing, but every writer's mind is different, and their stories are intrinsically different. Anyone who reads both Rothfuss and Sanderson can tell that they are nothing alike. And what makes Rothfuss great, for me at least, is that he breaks so many molds. He has disguised a tragedy in the garbs of a Fairy Tale. He starts at the very ending of the tale by showing us just how bad things are and yet give us this narrative that is so full wonder and has this way too skilled protagonist, which tricks us into expecting the best even when we already know that the worst is to come. He is bold in his word and structural choices. He managed to switch between third and first person in a way that made sense. He is making a story about stories that is nothing like we've seen before. Don't think that the irony is lost on Patrick, to write this:
When you wait a few span or month to hear a finished song, the anticipation adds savor. But after a year excitement begins to sour. By now, a year and a half had passed and folk were almost mad with curiosity. This occasionally led to hard words when someone was caught wandering a little too close to our wagon while my father and mother were working.
He knows that this is a thing. That fans get sour from waiting, that they become bitter and are taking it out on him. And good lords, he already had a manuscript years ago... what is taking so goddamned long? It is not done right and it won't be out until it is. What he set out to do is certainly ambitious, and the reality of life has gotten in the way of accomplishing that. Pat has been open about it as well: He tweeted back in Mar 13, 2014
@PatrickRothfuss I don't get sad or anxious. After 18 months of therapy, I know my constant, terrible anger is also a symptom of depression. #depressionlies
He is depressive. If you don't know what that means, well, you're indeed lucky. But it messes you up, and that disease is going on in his head, so it will obviously affect what he writes. He has multiple times expressed why he sometimes avoids the fan base, and it's because of comments like "I hope you finish the third book before you die". People don't often reflect about it, but that's very dehumanising: you want to say "I love the books and I can't way to read the next one", but what it actually sounds is more like "The only thing valuable about you is your work, as long as I get that, you dying is of little consequence, because I'll have what I need from you". And it's not that I'm trying to put words on people's mouths. I'm not. What I'm saying is that for someone with depression, our minds immediately find negatives where none was intended. And Pat has expressed that in multiple occasions, most recently in twich session. He is committed to delivering the best book he possibly can, and he will only release it when he has done so right. With that said, everyone complaining about it needs to get it in their heads that: YOU'RE NOT ENTITLED TO ANYTHING
“When someone tells you a piece of their life, they’re giving you a gift, not granting you your due.”
I recently had this discussion in here, because this guy thinks Pat mistreats his readers, and I'll not repeat myself about that beyond the fact that just because you read something and someone said they'd write more, it doesn't make you entitled to the continuation. If it were the case that a magazine was publishing a series of articles about a subject, that they clearly said they expected to be X issues long, but they ran out of budget and went bankrupt before the last one, would you feel entitled to read the one that was never made? Probably not, you'd be upset, maybe you'd mail them to ask what it was about, and you probably wouldn't get a response, but you'd ultimately understand and not get mad about it. Maybe you'd even start looking for donations to fund the project and have it finished. If you can be at peace when something physical (money) gets in the way, you need to make peace when something psychological does as well. You can't raise funds for Pat to finish writing, that's not what he needs, he needs to recover, and that takes time, and compassion and support. So you can try to give him that. If you can't spare it, than just not being an ass about it should help. Pat is an amazing writer, a super considerate person, and his works are awesome. If he's taking long to deliver the third book, is because he doesn't want to half ass it and let us down. He wants what's best for the story, and based on what we have seen so far, I believe him to be the right person to judge what that is. So I'd like you to tell what aspects of his writing or personality just shows how great Pat is? Or if you have any struggles with writing or psychological issues, how do you think this could relate to Pat's situation? And overall show that we understand and respect him. Since the thread is now locked, I’d like to offer one more consideration: Sure it might feel that 9 years is a long time for us readers, but have you ever realised just how different a writers and a readers perspective on a story are? To us, the readers, we see all this foreshadowing and things happening linearly. Everything is in order and feels very intelligent and planned out. Well, when you’re writing it’s not quite like that. Sometimes you write a scene and you create something new. But you don’t want that to be a MacGyver move, because that would be poor writing, but you know that this has to be in the story. So you go back and edit other parts to make so that this piece fits. Now imagine Pats books: just take a look at how many things we’ve turned into possible hints towards an underlying bigger plot point, from his relation to Meluan ,to Yllish magic and Denna, to the Amir and the Archives, not to speak of the moon and what’s in his thrice locked chest etc. If all of these things are plotted into books one and two, it (normally) means he already wrote answers to them and bothered to neatly fit the pieces for us to find back in the beginning of the story. But doing that is A LOT MORE WORK than simply reading it. That feeling you have when you discover something that is not written, but implied that makes you euphoric? Makes you think the author is a genius to have thought of that then and put it right there for anyone looking carefully to find it, right? Yeah, that’s hardly ever written that way on the first go through. You first imagine your twists, then you streamline them and add clues to make them seamless. And Pat obviously does that a lot. So I think it’s only normal that it’s taking him a long time to wrap things up in a way that it pays off for the things he promised in the first books. Sure it would have been nice to have read it! But if that meant having something subpar, than I don’t think it would be a trade off that would make anybody happy. It would let fans down much much harder. Kind of like someone fucking you senseless and just when you’re getting close to cum, telling you they are finished and walking off. (Yeah, sure, some will find that hot, others will jerk it off, but my bet is:) It will leave you frustrated and confused and speechless and enraged. The fact that he has not given in to the pressure shows that he’s not willing to do that, he wants us to come with him (so to speak) and everything he’s given us so far has made us feel great, so let him take his time to make the ending as good as everything that has come so far. @ EDIT 2 It seems that this thread while turned out to be a place to discuss Pat’s grievances, didn’t do much in terms of helping the people who wander around this subreddit but are unable to empathise. And by now I’m like, welp, I said my piece, if the main body of this post wasn’t enough, I’ve written some long responses to lots of answers we have here and tried to frame it in different ways for people to get it better. If even after reading all that you still cannot come around and give the guy a break… Well, then at the very least it was enough to promote a meta change: now it’s also against the rules to Pat-bash. So there’s that, we don’t need the negativity in the community. It doesn’t add to the books discussions, it doesn’t help their coming to fruition, and it helps scare people away from engaging with them. It just doesn’t help at all, and now it’s not welcome here anymore and for that I’m grateful.
Been wanting to make a thread like this for a while, just remembered it while I was in bed. What would you change about FGF? Is there a rule that should be removed, changed, added? Moderation, less, more? Any ideas of things you feel might benefit the sub? Whatever! If you've got something on your mind that could improve FGF, please let me know. EDIT: Okie doke, so it's been over a day now and I've gone through most of the comments within the thread as of now. I've narrowed down a couple basic ideas for things. Still open to more, of course, this isn't going to be everything. By all means please reiterate/remind me of something vital I could've missed.
Filterable options for tags [Steam][Epic][Xbox][etc]not surehowtogoaboutit
Enforce (Other) for "in game DLC"
Start trying to add expiration dates and key amount(s) via flaipinned comments
PSAs for ending big offers to serve as a reminder
Some method of posting recently turned F2P/perma free items
Allow high quality mobile offers
User flairs for finds (either numeric tiers, or a blanket option)
Filterable flair for gamegiveawayoftheday some callstobanitoutright
Start to do the monthly/bi-weekly threads for games with gold, playstation plus, twitch prime, etc.
General disinterest with low tier Microsoft Store offers
Dislike of bets/alphas
Still standing dislike of Itchio
Okay so the majority of those are pretty standard and good ideas that are self explanatory. The bottom three are things are all being touted as perfect for mega threads. The only issue is that we can only sticky two threads at once. So something like that would probably be best if done within a singular thread, that links out to other threads. So on a weekly or bi-weekly basis I could put together a Itchio thread, Microsoft Store thread, Beta/Alpha thread, etc. Not sure on the best ideas for that. Three other ideas I saw floating around that I don't really love at the moment.
Removal of "shovelware"
Removal of +1s
General disinterest in certain sites but with a call to ban (filters seem ideal like the best bet in most situations)
Removal of NSFW content (this was barely mentioned but wanted to note)
Updated list of Global Beermoney opportunities (+180!) - June 2020
Updated list of Global Beermoney opportunities (+180!) - June 2020
The current, and now previous, Beermoney Global list started nearly 5 years ago. It’s been updated and has grown over all that time, but it also became a hassle to keep current. It was time to build a new list from scratch based on my experience in the Beermoney world over all these years and all the contributions all of you have been making in this sub. The lists consist of opportunities that are available in at least one country that is not the US. This means there are sites which only work in Canada or the UK. There’s sites which are open to the whole world, but this does not mean everyone can really earn something on it. It’s all still very demographic and therefore location dependent. This list should give you a starting point to try out and find what works for you. I’m not using everything myself as I prefer to focus on a few, so not all are tested by me. They are found in this sub, other subreddits and other resources where people claim to have success. I’ve chosen the format of a simple table with the bare minimum of information to keep things clean. It includes a link, how you earn, personal payment proof if available and sign-up bonus codes if applicable. Some of these bonuses are also one-time use codes specifically made for this sub! For the ones I don’t have payment proof (yet) feel free to provide some as a comment or via modmail so others know it’s legit. I am working on detailed instructions for each method that I personally use which will include things like cashout minimum, cashout options, tips & tricks,... For now I’ve split things up based on the type of earning like passive or mobile. Because of this there’s sometimes an overlap as some are both passive and on mobile or both earning crypto and a GPT (Get Paid To) website. The lists are obviously not complete so I invite you to keep posting new ones in the sub, as a comment to this post, or in modmail. Especially if you have sites or apps which work for one single specific country I can start building a list, just like I did for The Netherlands and Belgium. If you recognize things which are in fact scams or not worth it let me know as well.
Get Paid To (Surveys, tasks, offers, videos, clicking links, play games, searching)
For The Netherlands there are a few very good options next to a bunch of ‘spaarprogramma’s. There ‘spaarprogramma’s are all the same where you receive and click a bunch of e-mails, advertisements, banners,... I advise you to create a separate e-mail address or use a good filter in your inbox as you will be spammed to death. I believe they can be a nice piece of beermoney but they take quite the effort.
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