My 2019 Ky Derby Pedigree Analysis With The Ones I Am Considering Betting
Bloodlines is, IMO, one of the most important criteria to consider in every race. It can give you clues on which horse(s) will perform the best in sprints, middle distances, long distances, dirt, grass, all weather tracks. But using bloodlines alone will leave most to frustrating results, much like anything else you can think of using, including speed ratings, trainers stats, jockey stats, expert picks and everything else. However, when you take bloodlines, then try to figure out when a trainer has succeeded in getting his horse to peak in the race he has usually been pointing for months, and the jockeys who has followed most of the real contenders for most of their careers, then it will give you an advantage over most of the other handicappers in a game that is all about being prepared and willing to take educated chances. Most horses will not go much further than their pedigree will suggest time and time again. Neither will they perform their best when asked to go too short or even on a surface they not like as much as another surface. Trainers are creatures of habit and once they figure out the way they have had success in the past, they will revert back to that "system" over and over again. So while knowing which trainers has won a race such as the derby is important, it is more important to know if he has a horse entering that race that has follow his successful path before(including other prestigious races) and if he is peaking for that start, not the start or two before. All jockeys, like trainers and owners, wants to win the Ky Derby more than any other race. So they will spend months looking at or riding horses that they think has a possibility to give them their best shot at winning a race that is very elusive to most. So, again, while it is important to watch which top jockeys ends up landing on which horse, it simply implies he thinks, along with his agent, that this horse gives him the best shot of winning. So I will list every horse in this year's Ky Derby , with their pedigree, and my thoughts of their probability of succeeding at one and one quarter mile. While some of you will disagree with my assessment, that is what makes betting the derby so thrilling. But in the end, I do not and have never spread my money in order to say I cash a ticket. I am always trying and have been successful occasionally in narrowing down my choices to the bare minimum and pocketing life changing winnings. TACITUS-- Tapit- Close Hatches By First Defense. 3x4 To Unbridled, 4x4 To Seattle Slew, 4(C)x5(C) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Secretariat. Tapit has been a top sire for years. He ran in the 2004 Ky Derby and finished 9th to Smarty Jones in a muddy renewal of the derby. While Tapit has sired several Belmont S winners, he has never sired a winner of the Ky Derby. The Belmont S is usually a much slower paced race than the derby, so that is, IMO, the biggest factor to consider. Tacitus's dam, Close Hatches, won 9 of 14 lifetime starts, showed front running speed but her best distance was up to 1 1/16 mile. She won one G1 at 1 1/8 mile in four attempts(all three of her career off the board finishes was at this distance) when she was allowed to set a pace she was comfortable without any challenge and drew off. Tacitus's broodmare sire, First Defense, won the G1 Forego S at 7 furlongs for this biggest and only G1 win. In summation, I will take a stand against Tacitus, not only winning but also finishing in the top four. OMAHA BEACH--- War Front- Charming By Seeking The Gold. 3x4 To Rubiano, 5x3 To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Native Dancer. War Front won 4 of 13 lifetime starts, all on dirt, though his pedigree suggested he would perform much better on grass. His biggest win came in the G2 Vosburgh H, and he was no factor in his only start at 1 1/8 mile. However, as his pedigree suggests, he is much better known as a sire of high class grass runners, especially up to a mile. Omaha Beach's dam, Charming, won 1 of 3 lifetime starts, and was pulled up and later retired in her only stakes try. His broodmare sire, Seeking The Gold, won 8 of 15 lifetime starts with his biggest win coming in the G1 Super Derby. However, he narrowly miss in the G1 Travers S on Saratoga's speed favoring track and his career finale saw him run second to heavy favorite Alysheba in the G1 BC Classic, though beaten soundly on an off track, a type of track he was superior to most. As a sire, he is best known was siting champion milers, both on dirt and grass. In summation, while I believe Omaha Beach would be no surprise for a minor award, I will not be using him at all. VEKOMA-- Candy Ride- Momma De Mona By Speightstown. 5x4 To Mr Prospector & Hoist The Flag. Candy Ride won all 6 of his lifetime start, including beating Medaglia D'Oro(who never won at 1 1/4 mile) in the G1 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic in his career finale. As a sire, Candy Ride is known for siring high class front running speed but most are distance challenged at 1 1/4 mile until they turned 4 YO and/or he gets major help from the dam side. His best runner to run in the Ky Derby, Gun Runner, flatten out in the stretch while just holding on for third. Vekoma's dam, Mona De Momma, won the G1 7F Humana Distaff for her biggest stakes score but did so with a late kick. Vekoma's broodmare sire, Speightstown, won 10 of 16 lifetime races, all at 6 or 7 furlongs. However, he was injured twice in his four year career, required long layoffs of 1 1/2 year and nearly a year, so his connections probably did not want to risk trying him at middle distance. As a sire, while most of his runners perform best sprinting, he has sire a few to win at the 1 1/4 mile, including Golden Ticket, who dead heat for the win in the 2012 G1 Travers S with Alpha and Haynesfield, who beat Blame in the 2010 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.In summation, while I will probably pass on using him, he could be one that hangs around and nabs a minor reward. PLUS QUE PARFAIT- Point Of Entry- Belvedera By Awesome Again. 4(C)x5(C) To His Majesty, 4x5 To Mr Prospector. Point Of Entry won 9 of 18 lifetime starts and is a perfect example of what I have suggested over and over about how a horse's pedigree can tip you to live longshots. He became his career on dirt and won 2 of his first 9 starts, showing flashes but never quite being able to put it all together. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, finally decided maybe he would do better on grass where he would go on to win his last 7 of 9 starts, most in G1 competion. His 2 losses were both in the G1 BC Turf, where he finished 2nd, beaten a 1/2 length and returned the next year to run 4th, beaten 1 3/4 length in his first start back after returning from an injury, suffered five months before hand. Plus Que Parfait's dam, Belvedera, finished last in her only lifetime start at Charles Town. However, his broodmare sire, Awesome Again, won 9 of 12 lifetime starts, including the G1 BC Classic in his career finale. His best known son is Ghostzapper, a 1/2 brother to City Zip and broodmare sire of 2018 TC Winner, Justify. In summary, while he is one of the better bred horse in this year's field, he has thus far under performed and/or seems a cut below the main contenders, so I will probably pass. ROADSTER-- Quality Road- Ghost Dancing By Silver Ghost. 4x3 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Raise A Native, 5(F)x5(F) To Hail To Reason. Quality Road won 8 of 13 lifetime starts, including the G1 Florida Derby and was the expected favorite for the 2009 Ky Derby before suffering an injury in a workout while preparing for that start and was declared(scratched) from the race. He has been an above average sire since starting his stallion career and here is his latest top runner. Roadster's Dam, Ghost Dancing, won 5 of 9 lifetime starts but was not tested against top runners. His broodmare sire, Silver Ghost, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, none against top runners though he was fast in sprints. Silver Ghost sired some useful middle distance runners on dirt, but I have had the most success with him using his daughters in long distances grass runners pedigrees. In summary, Roadster has a pedigree that could conceivably win the derby and it will be a matter of if he has enough experience and class to pull it off. My guess is he does not and I will try using others but is the one I am most concerned about leaving out of my bets. BY MY STANDARDS-- Goldencents- A Jealous Woman By Muqtarib. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(F)X5(F) To Secretariat & Northern Dancer. Goldencents won 7 of 18 lifetime starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby and was very fast but did a steady fade in that year's Ky Derby after not being able to get near the early lead. His best distance was a mile and he won 2 runnings of the BC Dirt Mile to put an exclamation point on that statement. By My Standards's dam, A Jealous Woman, won 8 of 25 lifetime starts, including 2 non graded stakes at SA at 1 mile on grass and a 2nd in the G2 Goldikova S, all in fast times for that surface. His broodmare sire, Muqtarib, won 3 of 15 lifetime starts, including the G2 Richmond S in England. In summary, By My Standards simply is not one I will waste any money on. MAXIMUM SECURITY-- New Year's Day- Lil Indy By Anasheed. 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. New Year's Day won 2 of 3 lifetime starts, including the 2013 G1 BC Juvenile Dirt in his final start with a late run. This is his first crop to race but he has some pedigree that suggest distance will not be a problem. Maximum Security's dam, Lil Indy, won 2 of 19 lifetime starts. His broodmare sire, Anasheed, is a 3/4 brother to Mineshaft but won only 2 of 15 lifetime starts. In summary, there are two ways to look at his chances. First, I like horses that did not have to use all their energy winning or finishing their final prep. In the Fla Derby, he looked like he had something to run with him early but that horse turned out to be over-hyped. Second, he got to walk the dog, setting an extremely slow pace and then sprinting home the last 4 furlongs which I usually bet against next out. My choice will be to make this one beat me and if he does, it is time to move on to another race. GAME WINNER-- Candy Ride- Indyan Giving By A.P. Indy. 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Candy Ride(see Vekoma above). Indyan Giving was unraced but her dam, Fleet Indian, won 13 of 19 lifetime starts but spent most of her career beating up on mediocre competition. After winning 2 G1s, she was pulled up in her final career start and did not finish the race in the G1 BC Distaff as the favorite. Game Winner's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the G1 Belmont S and that year's BC Classic after scratching from the Ky Derby the morning of the race with a minor injury. In summary, Game Winner spent most of the early part of this year on my watch list and was still there until his run in the SA Derby. I know he was wide throughout(4 wide is not a good enough excuse, at least for me)to see him shorten stride in deep stretch which was the only reason Roadster caught him. Now he needs to go another 1/8 mile. Not for me against these. CODE OF HONOR-- Noble Mission- Reunited By Dixie Union. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Norther Dancer, 5x4 To Blushing Groom, 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel and won 9 of 21 career starts. However, all his starts was on grass in Europe where he was his best at 1 1/8 mile but running style, distance and even class does not necessarily transform into success or failure on dirt. Code Of Honor's dam, Reunited, won 5 of 10 lifetime starts with the 6 furlongs G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S being her only graded stakes win. His broodmare sire, Dixie Union, won 7 of 12 lifetime starts with the G1 Haskell S being his longest win at 1 1/8 mile. However, Dixie Union is sire of 2012 Belmont S winner, Union Rags. In summary, I believe his Florida Derby race is a throwout simply because the pace was slower than most high claimers would be expected to run, much less G1 competition. His run in last year's Champagne S when 2nd is as good as anyone in this field, IMO, and there is a reason John Velasquez chose him over Pletcher's horse. He simply thinks he has a better chance to win with this horse. That said, I am still undecided if I will use him, but he is on my short list to consider. HAIKAL-- Daaher- Sablah By Distorted Humor. 5(C)x4(F)x4(F) To Mr Prospector. 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Buckpasser. Daaher won 4 of 9 lifetime starts with his biggest win in the G1 Cigar Mile H. Daaher's sire was Awesome Again, who won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles and also sired a BC Classic winner in Ghostzapper. Haikal's dam, Sablah was unraced. His broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, won 8 of 23 lifetimes starts including a pair of G2s 7 furlongs sprints at CD And Keeneland. Distorted Humor also was sire of 2003 Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide. One more piece of his pedigree worth mentioning is Haikal's 3rd dam, Shadayid, ran 3rd in the 1 1/2 mile Epsom Oaks and spent the rest of her career mostly taking on the boys and running well against them. In summary, Haikal will be one of my top two choices, depending on the post position draw. And I will give you the reason why I like him. I mentioned earlier that trainers were creatures of habit. They figure out what works for them and then try to set up their other horses to follow the same path. McLaughin is 0-9 in his attempts to win the Ky Derby with one second place finisher. That second place finish occurred in 2005 when he brought a confirmed sprinter bloodlines wise, turned him into an off the pace type, spaced his races out and on paper, he looked to have no chance. Closing Argument used what he was taught to perfection and when he caught Afleet Alex at the wire, he costed me by far the biggest payday I will ever have an opportunity to collect on. If you look up Closing Argument and Haikal, you will see a very similar pattern, including both ran 3rd in their final prep. I let a one million dollar payoff get away from me that I really liked, but I do not plan on letting another get away, especially when the same trainer could be involved. HAIKAL WILL BE WITHDRAWN FROM THE KY DERBY PER HIS TRAINER MCLAUGHLIN. IMPROBABLE-- City Zip- Rare Event By A.P. Indy. 4x5 To Blushing Groom. City Zip won 9 of 23 lifetime starts, all sprints. However, he is a 1/2 to Ghostzapper. Improbable's dam, Rare Event, won 4 of 14 lifetime starts, all condition races and was unplaced in 5 stakes tries, mostly on grass. Improbable's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, simply loved to run and he got better as the distances stretched out. And since I learned that the dam is as important as the sire in determining how far any horse wants to go, this will make him eligible to win as she not only has A.P. Indy on top but her dam(2nd dam of Improbable) is a 1/2 sister to Hard Spun, second in the 2007 Ky Derby after setting the pace. Also, being inbred 4x5 to Blushing Groom gives you another factor to consider. Blushing Groom had a heart not seen in most thoroughbreds and would always find more when challenged. And he passed this heart on to most of his foals. His best siring dirt son, Rahy, is sire of Serena's Song and broodmare sire of Giant's Causeway. In summary, my biggest concern with him is his jockey may ask him to go too early and not save enough for the stretch run. But Irad is known for leaving something in the tank for the stretch drive. Plus, since Baffert started sending horses to Arkansas, the one he thinks has the best shot to win ends up there. IMO, with Justify last year, he chose the race he thought would be easier to win and he need the win points more than place or show points to be sure he qualified. Baffert usually does not make mistakes if he has the horse. You have to beat him. He knows as much as anyone that SA dirt track results is usually speed favoring & track aided. His best shot to tied the all time record for wins in the Ky Derby by one trainer with 6. WAR OF WILL-- War Front- Visions Of Clarity By Sadler's Wells. 3(C)x3(F)x5(F) To Norther Dancer, 4x5 To Forli, 5(F)x5(F) To Lalun. Last seen getting crushed as the heavy favorite in the La Derby. But he had a legit excuse as he not only lost action but easily could had hyper extended a tendon. So, IMO, that race is a toss and he deserves another try. Since then, he is working like a horse on a mission and his bloodlines is screaming "do not toss". Everyone knows about Northern Dancer, but few knows about the two others who repeats in his pedigree. First, the filly Lalun was dam of Sadler's Wells broodmare sire Bold Reason, who ran 3rd in the 1971 Ky Derby, 5th In the Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Lalun is also dam of Never Bend, who also never bend and he was a refused to quit front runner who ran 2nd in the 1961 Ky Derby(to a late runner) after battling with and putting away two unbeaten horses and 3rd in the Preakness(behind the Ky Derby favorite and the Derby winner). He also was a top sire in Europe's distances bloodlines before he was overtaken by none other than Sadler's Wells. Forli, who appears 4x5 in War Of Will bloodlines, won his first 8 races in Argentina and then purchased by Arthur Hancock Jr to stand in the U.S. His best known son, Forego, was unraced at 2 YO and entered the Ky Derby as an outsider without a stakes win but finished 4th to none other than Secretariat. He would go on to be named Champion Handicapper Horse for 4 straight years, carrying as much as 137 lbs and winning 34 times in 57 lifetime starts. Forli's daughter, Special, was the dam of Northern Dancer's son, Nureyev and 2nd dam of the aforementioned Sadler's Wells. Another Forli's daughter, Tuerta, was dam of 1984 Ky Derby and Belmont S winner, Swale. In summary, while is last leads a big question mark(in most handicappers eyes), do you want to bet against the real speed if he has recovered? Your choice, but he will be included , especially underneath, on my tickets. His trainer, Mark Casse, has shown you his intentions and that is go for the lead to get a good position, then maybe rate behind battling front runners until given the cue to go entering the stretch, which is what wins most Ky Derbies. The main reason no one has won from the one hole since Ferdinand in 1986 is most simply did not have enough speed to get a good early position. This one does and if he breaks on cue, he will be gone before the others knows what hit them. Bloodlines is there and so is the front running speed with a jockey that rides front runners well. LONG RANGE TODDY-- Take Charge Indy- Pleasant Song By Unbridled's Song. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Secretariat, 5x4 To Fappiano, 5(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. His sire, Take Charge Indy won the G1 Florida Derby, but finished 19 of 20th in the Ky Derby, beaten 50 lengths and beating only a UAE Derby winner who was pulled up and did not finished. His, broodmare sire, Unbridled's Song, also won the 1996 Florida Derby and G1 Wood Memorial, then open a clear lead in the Ky Derby before hitting that invisible wall that so many has found at the 1/8 pole and fading to fifth. In summary, while Long Range Toddy has a little more help underneath than his sire and broodmare sire, I simply believe he has peaked and will be no factor in this year's derby. Pass for me! TAX-- Arch- Toll By Giant's Causeway. 3x5 To Roberto, 4(C)x4(F)x 5(F) To Northern Dancer, 5(F)x5(F) To Secretariat. Tax's sire, Arch, biggest win came in the G1 Super Derby, where he beat a lackluster field after that race had lost most of its prestige. He would finish 9 of 10 in the G1 BC Classic, beating only a horse that was pulled up and did not finish in his only other G1 effort. Arch, as a sire, is best known for siring horses that found 1 1/4 miles just beyond their reach, though he is broodmare sire of 2012 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, I'll Have Another, but he had major help underneath. Tax's broodmare sire, Giant's Causeway, won 9 of 13 lifetime races, but finished 2nd beaten a neck, by Tiznow, in his only race on dirt with no more than 1 1/2 lengths separated the top two throughout. A Classic! Tax's dam, Toll, traces through her dam line back to La Troienne, considered by most to be the most influential dam in U.S. history. In summary, Tax is certainly bred to get the distance and would be no surprise, especially underneath, but I prefer others more. His trainer, Danny Gargan, is looking for his first G1 win and he is picking a tough spot to accomplish that feat, though he wins at 22 % and has an in the money % of 53. Not bad stats. COUNTRY HOUSE--- Looking At Lucky- Quake Lake By War Chant. Country House's sire, Looking At Lucky, won 9 of 13 lifetime starts, with his only two off the board finishes was in the Ky Derby in the slop, where he broke from the dreaded 1 Post, was boxed in throughout and never got to make a serious run until it was too late and his career finale, in the BC Classic, when 4th behind Blame and Zenyatta, though he got sick one week before that start and only ran because Baffert & the owners had announced he was retiring after that race. Looking At Lucky's sire, Smart Strike, is also sire of Curlin. Country House's broodmare sire, War Chant, won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including the BC Turf Mile in his career finale. His only off the board finish is his career came in the 2000 Ky Derby when he finished 9th after running 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. Most of Country House's underneath help topped out at 1 1/8 miles. In summary, if the pace is extremely fast, he will have a chance to get a piece underneath, but I doubt if the pace will be as fast as he will need. I have seen bigger shockers to hit the board in the derby, but I will pass. CUTTING HUMOR-- First Samurai- Pun By Pulpit. 4(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Secretariat. His sire, First Samurai, won 5 of 8 lifetime starts, including two G1s as a 2 YO(Hopeful S & Champagne S), then won the G2 Fountain Of Youth via DQ at 3 but was caught late in that race by Corinthian, but the unofficial winner impeded the 3rd place finisher, costing him the win. In his next start, First Samurai, finished fifth and was no factor in the Blue Grass S, his only unplacing of his career. First Samurai has bred a mixture of sprinters/ milers with his best son, Lea, finding 1 1/8 miles was his limit in top company. Cutting Humor's broodmare sire, Pulpit, won 4 of 6 lifetime starts, including 2 G2 wins in the Fountain Of Youth in a good time of 141 4/5 for a 1/16 miles and the Blue Grass S but also finished 2nd in the G1 Florida Derby. However, in the Ky Derby, he alternated the lead with Free House for the first mile before fading readily in the stretch to finish 4th, beaten 7 lengths by Silver Charm and was retired after that effort. While he spent most of his career siring milers/ middle distance type horse, he is most famous as sire of Tapit(who got a lot of help from his dam) and Lucky Pulpit, sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, California Chrome(also with major help from the dam line). Interesting though,Cutting Humor has some serious mud influences in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th dam sires. In summary, I will not use this horse in any of my bets, simply because he does not have enough top runners to help him negotiate 1 1/4 mile. While the derby always seems to have one real outsider to finish 3rd or 4th, I would rather consider one who will be trying to pick up the pieces in deep stretch. WIN WIN WIN-- Hat Trick- Miss Smarty Pants By Smarty Jones. 5(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Hat Trick, was an all or nothing miler while spending his entire career in Japan. But his sire, Sunday Silence, won the 1989 Ky Derby in the mud, and came back to out duel Easy Goer in the Preakness in one of the best and thrilling duels ever, before running 2nd to that rival in the Belmont S by 8 lengths. However, in that years BC Classic, he again managed to beat Easy Goer to make it 3 wins in their 4 meetings. Also, as a sire, he was sold to Japan interests for $10 million and led the sire list by far in every year he was at stud. His son, Deep Impact, took over where he left off and has led the sire list almost every year since. Win Win Win's broodmare sire, Smarty Jones, won 8 of 9 lifetime starts, including a muddy renewal of the 2004 Ky Derby and suffered his only career defeat in that year's Belmont S, while finishing second. However, Win Win Win is the only horse in this year's field that has 5 different Ky Derby winners showing in his 5 generation pedigree(Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones(see above), Unbridled(winner of 1990 Ky Derby and 2nd in Preakness), Foolish Pleasure(winner of the 1975 Ky Derby and 2nd in both the Preakness & Belmont S) and Cannonade(winner of the 1974 Ky Derby and he sports the same sire(Bold Bidder) as 1979 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, Spectacular Bid. Win Win Win also has 4 Belmont winners showing that does not include any of the above(Damascus who finished 3rd in the 1967 Ky Derby and then won both the Preakness & Belmont S. His sire, Sword Dancer, was second in both the 1959 Ky Derby & Preakness, before winning the Belmont S on a muddy track). Arts And Letters was second in both the 1969 Ky Derby & Preakness before winning the Belmont S and denying Majestic Prince a TC sweep) and Caveat(who ean 3rd in the 1984 Ky Derby and then returned to win the Belmont S, beating the famous Slew O' Gold by 4 1/2 lengths going away. In summary, I have not seen this many Ky Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners in one's pedigree in my more than 40 years of studying bloodlines and he will be included in all my bets, especially since Haikal may be a late scratch. GRAY MAGICIAN-- Graydar- Burg Berg By Johannesberg. 5(C)x5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Graydar, won 5 of 6 career starts, including the G1 Donn H and G2 New Orleans H, both at 1 1/8 mile, both in gate to wire fashion and beating Flat Out both times, by 8 and 4 lengths, respectively. He finished his career winning the G2 Kelso H, also in gate to wire fashion completing the mile in 134.08. Gray Magician's dam, Burg Berg, spent her career racing in Southern California, winning the non graded Swingtime S At 1 mile on grass but also finishing 2nd in the G2 Royal Heroine S, also at 1 mile on grass. However, Gray Magician is a full brother to last year's G3 Robert B Lewis winner, Lombo, who then came back and showed the way in the G2 San Felipe S for 6 furlongs before McKinzie put him away. Their broodmare sire, Johannesburg, won his first 7 career starts, including the BC Juvenile Dirt in 2001 and then came back in the 2002 Ky Derby, and finished an even 8th, but broke from the dreaded 1 post and trapped inside, off 1 one mile prep in Europe as a 3 YO on grass. However, he is most famous known as sire of Scat Daddy. In summary, his effort in the UAE Derby when 2nd could be a signal he is starting to figure out the game as he was with the pace throughout, lost a little ground when in traffic, but when cleared he finished with a rush. I will caution you before you toss him, that he is the first runner heading into the derby that has worked not once, but twice at San Luis Rey Training Center and both works indicates he is ready. The problem with most UAE runners is they return(or ship over) and trainers will usually use caution and not work them, but expect them to perform in the biggest race against the best horses America has to offer being ill prepared. Not Peter Miller and he has called on Drayden Van Dyke to see it through. My longshot special underneath. SPINOFF--- Hard Spun- Zaftig By Gone West. 5x4 To Raise A Native, 5x5 To Native Dancer. His sire, Hard Spun, ran 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby to Street Sense, setting all the pace, 3rd in the Preakness to Curlin, and 4th in the Belmont S to Rags To Riches and Curlin. He also ran 2nd to Curlin, in that year's BC Classic, contested on one of the sloppiest track you will ever see. Spinoff's dam, Zaftig, won the G1 Acorn S at 1 mile but also ran third in the first running of the 7 furlongs Listed BC F&M Sprint, ran in 119.90, on the then SA all weather track. Spinoff's broodmare sire, Gone West, was a miler during his racing career and was a champion miler sire, especially on grass and in Europe. His best dirt son, Came Home, went into the 2002 Ky Derby highly regarded with 6 wins in 7 lifetime starts but found the 1 1/4 mile distance a little longer than he liked, though he would later win the G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles on speed favoring Del Mar race track. In summary, I simply believe he will not get this distance and he managed to hang around in the La Derby because the best pace type horse did not produce his best run. So, I will pass, mostly because there is plenty of speed that I believe will make him work. MASTER FENCER--- Just A Way- Sexy Samurai By Deputy Minister. 5x5 To Nearctic. His Sire, Just A Way, is a grand son of Sunday Silence and while I know very little about Japan's racing, he did run second in the Japan Cup. However, his sire is Heart's Way, who also ran 2nd in the Japan Cup but is best known in the U.S. as sire of Yoshida. Master Fencer's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister found 1 1/16 mile to be his best distance but was considered an early favorite for the 1982 Ky Derby before he was taken off the trail after 2 sub par efforts to begin his 3 YO season. As a sire, though, he is known for the fillies he sired including Go For Wand, Open Mind, Better Than Honour and colts Awesome Again, Touch Gold and Dehere. In summary, while Master Fencer is well bred and has all U.S. breeding throughout, I watched both of his preps and he came from last with a solid late kick to finish 4th, then 2nd. However, when he finished 2nd, he looked rank throughout(to me) and that does not usually end well in their next start. Now facing better horses and with one very slow work since arriving, I will have to pass on him. BODEXPRESS--- Bodemeister- Pied A Terre By City Zip. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5x5 To In Reality, 5(F)x5(F) To Raise A Native. His sire, Bodemeister, won the G1 Arkansas Derby before running 2nd in both the Ky Derby & Preakness, all while prominent throughout. However, his pedigree literally screams late runner and I feel his best foals will come when trainers decides to let them rate. It has already happen with several of his foals and they have responded with a late kick like Empire Maker, A.P Indy and Roberto, all showing in his lineage. Bodexpress broodmare sire, City Zip, was best at sprint distances and most of his foals also is better at sprints on dirt and up to a mile on grass. In summary, I will not use this horse on any of my tickets. This is my pedigree summary for the 2019 Ky Derby. I have not decided if I will bet this race, simply because I will wait until I get a better feel of what the track conditions will be. I know rain is expected, but the weather forecast is often wrong, especially because rain will stop often before reaching the area suggested because the system will often weaken and break up or change directions before arriving. Where I live we have been expecting heavy rain for two days and it arrived this morning, sprinkled less than .01 of 1 inch and was gone in 15 minutes, even though the radar showed a heavy band of rain less than 40 miles away. If I choose to bet this race, all my tickets will reflect who I like best from the ones I am considering and I do not change my mind. I have never made any real money by betting horses I do not really like and bet only because the track conditions changes.
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When you post your selection, please confirm if you're advising to Win, Place, E/W, Forecast, whatever, how many points to stake (this is generally done in 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and 3 points, but it's up to your discretion), and what odds to take and with which betting firm or if you're taking the SP.
The sign up thread will be posted Tuesday. The Tips thread will be posted Wednesday. Please have your tips posted by lunch-time of the race..
Please format your previews something similar to this.
When you post your selection, please confirm if you're advising to Win, Place, E/W, Forecast, whatever, how many points to stake (this is generally done in 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and 3 points, but it's up to your discretion), and what odds to take and with which betting firm or if you're taking the SP.
So today is the Investec Derby in the UK horse racing calendar. Here are my horse racing betting tips for today: Epsom Downs 2.05 - Burtonwood - at 14/1 through the night this horse looks a great each way bet. On his second run on good to soft he won at 5f in Nottingham. In the past Burtonwood has beaten its stablemate, Clouds Rest by a length. Travelled well last time out but failed to produce the good. Hoping for an improvement today. 14/1 @ Ladbrokes Fore more free UK horse racing tips visit www.Bets4Sport.com
In the last ten to twenty years there has been an increased push to rehome and retrain as many horses as we as a sport can. I personally try to rehome every horse that leaves the yard to a good home, provided the owner is willing and doesn't want to keep it themselves. I wouldn't say that selling horses, particularly race horses, for slaughter is common practise here. I haven't encountered any instances personally. Horses are frequently run aged two or three in this country as well however I think it's wise to mention that while they do work hard it is not in our or the horses interest to overwork or break them down. In our yard if a young horse is showing signs of struggling we will ease off and give them time.
Oh yeah. They are clever bastards. You can often tell when it's time to retire a horse from racing because instead of carrying on the race when they get round the course and near to the stables they will try and pull up.
This website is run by the governing body of racing and has lots of good information on racecourse and fixtures.
Once you have decided on where you want to go I suggest visiting some of the individual racecourses website as they are much more detailed. If you are visiting London during summer I do suggest going to Windsor they do fantastic evening racing, generally on a Monday night where you can get to the racecourse on a boat that comes up the River Thames. Cool huh?
Horse racing as a sport happens all year round however some elements of it are indeed seasonal.
For example Flat racing is predominately held over Summer, this is because these horses are generally smaller and appreciate 'faster' (read harder) ground.
During Winter we get most of the National Hunt meetings. National Hunt is the full name for jumps racing. Generally speaking horses are larger and as such need softer ground to prevent injuries and slow them down.
Horse racing is a fun and enjoyable pastime. It's great to get a lot of people together and go and have a few drinks and a couple of bets on horses, it really is exciting when there is money on it. It's a good fun day out and provided you budget like any other day out, it doesn't have to be really expensive either.
Welfare is a tough question to answer briefly but I will give it a shot and if their is more interest I can write up a larger response. I personally feel that the majority of trainers provide a very high level of welfare for their horses. We really do love the animals regardless of what people may say. Racehorses get treated especially well, better than most horses kept just for riding I would argue. We are incredibly strictly regulated on animal welfare issues and the punishments are severe for the very few people who do break the rules.
I personally am not a huge gambler, I have a little flutter every now and then but for the most part It don't gamble. I have not ever seen someone ruin their lives through betting but that's not to say it doesn't happen I'm sure.
It's to make them go faster, it causes the horse no damage and Jockeys are carefully regulated. Limits are set in place for how much a whip can be used and bans and fines for excessive use are common.
Horses are big animals and the whip is primarily a correctional tool, they are trained to respond to it and it's used to keep them under control. Most schools of equestrianism use the whip in some form.
Horse racing is the second most attended sport in the UK, we also hold something like 6 of the highest 10 sporting fixtures in the UK each year. However the average age of the racegoer is getting higher and higher, at a higher level than I there must be a push to encourage a younger audience to attend racing. Racing in this country is coming under attack from decreasing in funding by the betting industry. Every year we receive less money to go towards prize money and such due to an archiac system called the Levy which is supposed to provided the sport with a proportion of bookmakers profits. Improvements look to be being made in this are as the Government, I believe, is pushing to regulate the betting industry differently allowing online betting in particular to be properly taxed and the money collected. It's tough for trainers right now. There aren't as many trainers around than there were in 2007. The recession hit us hard as unsurprisingly the first cost most people shed was a racehorse in training. Ultimately though the situation does start to look like its improving, people are buying horses again and yards are starting to be a bit larger each year. The next one to look out for is China. Racing is becoming very popular there and gambling isn't even legal on mainland china. If China liberalises at the rate it has been it may only be a few years before they regulate the betting industry and everything really kicks off.
Our top flight horses travel all over the world to contest titles. This is called "raiding" and foreigners come to England to do it too! The Breeders Cup is something every trainer wants to win. As for the Middle East the main draw is the money. It is insane. Next Saturday is the Dubai World Cup held at Meydan. They built this huge racing complex way out in the desert and hold loads of expensive racing at night to avoid the heat. Pretty surreal compared to here. I don't know of any South American horses running under rules and I'm not certain why they wouldn't. I suppose they don't have any good enough to warrant the expense of travelling over.
Racing is held all over the UK Some of the most popular meetings are Royal Ascot, the Derby Meeting at Epsom and Glorious Goodwood on the Flat. Thousands of people attend these three or four day long meetings every year and it's really quite a sight!
Over the Jumps the most popular are the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National meeting at Aintree in Liverpool. The Cheltenham Festival is a personal favourite of mine as the atmosphere is truly electric, around 60,000 people attend each day.
Edit: Whoops! Yes meets is a fine phrase. More commonly people will say meetings, fixtures or races.
My favourite to go to as a racegoer would have to be Newbury. The facilities are amazing and the racing is generally of a really high quality both on the flat and over the jumps. Professionally in recent years we have had some success at Plumpton down on the South Coast near Brighton, it's a nice little country course.
Not for my yard no sadly but I would love to come over for some of your racing. Some of my extended family take a few horses out there every now and then. It's every trainers dream to raid a Breeders Cup!
I have no idea to be honest. It's probably very very low, it's a hard thing to pull off and the punishments are very strict. Life long bans and potential criminal prosecution.
A few do attempt it of course, a big ring got taken down a few years ago. It's a shame that this is an issue that press fixate upon really as on a day to day basis you don't even think about it within the Industry.
Not at all! Jockey's are professional sportsmen in a job where if you can't make the weight you can't ride. Some jockey's have to be very light while others can afford to be heavier, it depends on their role as every horse generally requires a different weight based on their handicap rating (A whole other kettle of fish).
Jockeys not only have to be light but have to be incredibly fit and strong. It's really hard work to ride a horse in that style for possibly four miles. Most jockey's I know aren't just good jockeys they are athletes who are proficient at most sports. They really seem to love golf.
Form is the big one. Form over a comparable distance with comparable ground conditions. You can start to make educated guesses each way after that if you start to take in other variables like equipment etc.
Headgear is a really useful tool, sometimes they go really well. Other times it has no effect. Sometimes the effects deteriorate over time. Generally if one of mine is wearing head gear for the first time it means we have worked it at home and it's worked really well.
By horse seed do you mean semen? If so in the Thoroughbred Bloodstock Industry Artificial Insemination is banned. Only natural coverings are permitted. Race horses are still crazy expensive though. People can spend millions of pounds on one horse.
As for most gruesome I don't have any really awful ones about horses. We have had some nasty falls and one went through a barbed wire fence once but nothing truly disgusting. Likewise never seen any botched geldings or surgeries. But they do happen, I like to think the vet we use is pretty good so I hope it won't happen anytime soon!
One, limits the number of stock from a single stallion. AI decreases the cost of covering so semen would be more readily available. You would end up with thousands of foal in the same year by the same sire. Thats a quick way to fuck up your bloodlines.
Two, why would they change to it? Now all the selling power is held by those who it would affect most. The studs which own the stallions make millions of pounds a year in coverings, if they saturate (literally in this case) the market they will make loses.
Three, racing is an international sport, if one country did it and no one followed suit very quickly they would find themselves isolated with a horse population that couldn't compete abroad.
Hey man! Hope I can help. Trainers charge the owners of horses a training fee. This is generally a daily charge plus extras . Sometimes it's very hard to make money as a trainer, a lot of people don't turn a profit training racehorses many just do it for the fun and the lifestyle.
Generally breeding, if the mare and stallion are good the horse has a better chance of being good. Ideally you compare the horse to a full sibling however this is rare and you generally end up comparing them to half brothesister on the maternal side.
Aww come on. G4S as in the men being done for manslaughter? Trust me when I say we hate those hired security at the big meetings more than you do. We normally know the guy on the gate because it's been the same one for maybe twenty years. However at the big meetings they roll out extra staff and they get lost in the crowd somewhere...
The brad and butter is training fees through a daily cost per horse plus extras.
One or two wealthy owners who love the sport and who have three or more horses each are what every yard really needs. These owners are hopefully loyal and will use you year after year, topping up their stock. They are the ones who keep racing afloat.
A lot of the time it's basic riding skills, shortening and quickening stride etc but the real aim is to get them to respond as well to the rider as possible. They have to respond to being asked to quicken or shorten. Ultimately each horse is different and generally the rider changes a lot to suit the horse.
To be perfectly honest by this point I'm just glad I have got them there, it's the jockey's job to make sure he gives them a proper race. If you watch a race you will see the jockey uses his entire body when quickening, they still use their heels as much as they can!
You can see as they come round the corner the jockey is holding his hands in a way that the bit just makes contact with the horse and holds it steady. When they ask them to go faster they break that contact and the horse no longer feel the bit and are physically encouraged by the jockeys movement.
I think that maybe historically that could be the case but less so in this day and age. Nowadays corruption is rare and much easier to detect, staff welfare is very important and they have their own unions which continually lobby for better conditions.
There is a few things that may happen. If the race is far away the horse may travel to the racecourse the night before. This is to allow it to recover to be in best condition as long travel is taxing to the horse.
If it's at home I will give it less bulky feed at it's morning feed. Just high energy protein generally. We will then jump in the box and drive to the racecourse to arrive a few hours before the race. I think travel is a consideration when considering under performing horses.
Most common reasons for underperformance... I'd have to say the ground. If the ground isn't to the liking of the horse it can have a real effect on the way they run the race.
We try to rehome them just as well as the best ones. A lot of owners really care about their horses and take them back for their retirement. If nothing can be done sometimes they have to be put down which is always sad.
Just start to follow racing a little, try and understand how it works. As for books I don't really know anything personally but some people are great fans of the Dick Francis novels which are based round horse racing however I can't say I have read them.
Im yet to have a good racehorse, maybe I could let you know in around 30-40 years? I might find one by then...
But seriously some guys have a really good strategy, Nicky Henderson is always right up there on the Jumps side and Aidan O'brien recently has been incredibly good. I think the trick is to lots of wealthy owners!
Who knows? I doubt Shiekh Mohammed would have actually turned to his trainers and said "Use drugs bro." I would imagine that the environment of pressure he puts on those who work for him is so great they feel like they have no choice.
Yeah some are better suited to different kinds of races. Some like to be in front all the way and hate to have other horses compete with them. Other like to slowly build from the rear of the field and then burst forward using their turn of foot. Others just plod along at the same pace and hit the line just right.
Last updated: 2014-03-26 20:02 UTC This post was generated by a robot! Send all complaints to epsy.
Epsom Derby: Tips & Betting Preview. Ed Jeanes | 15:18 Wednesday 1st April 2020. We have a look at the main Derby contenders, with a 20/1 shot that looks overpriced . Sadly, we will be missing the early part of the flat season due to coronavirus, with the 2000 and 1000 Guineas at the start of May looking in big trouble. Racing should be able to However you like to bet, Timeform has you covered with Epsom Derby betting tips. Epsom Derby Latest News, Odds & Results. Follow all the build up to the Derby on the News pages at Timeform. Whether you are after the latest Epsom Derby betting odds, market movers, going updates and non-runners, plus the latest from the stables of the top horses The Epsom Derby is on Saturday at 3.35 pm, live on ITV. myracing.com guides you through the runners, the betting and the tips for the fourth classic of 2020. Epsom Derby Tips & Preview . The Derby has a maximum field size of 20 horses and it normally features 12 or more runners. That throws the race open to attractive each-way Epsom Derby betting terms and this has been a great race for big-priced placed horses. In 2010 At First Sight finished runner-up at Epsom Derby odds of 100/1. Welcome to the Evening Standard’s LIVE coverage of the Epsom Derby 2020. 25-1 shot Serpentine was the stunning winner in the first Derby to take place without spectators, sealing a stunning six
Epsom Derby 2020- selection/predictions/analysis- What will win the Derby ?
Timeform Horse Racing Analyst and Middle-Distance Handicapper Matt Gardner runs through the field for the 2020 Epsom Derby before recommending his best bet. A minute and a half dedicated to trying unearth the identity of the 2017 Investec Derby winner... #horses #tips #betting #Derby #EpsomDerby #Epsom #punters #value #eachway #FrankieDettori # ... Paul Alster, Horse Racing Journalist and Commentator, gives his recommendations for Saturday 4th July At Epsom and Sunday 5th July at Sandown. Please subscribe to our channel: https://bit.ly/2HTzg2B. RUSSIAN EMPEROR ~ Gr.3 Hampton Court Stakes 2020 (Royal Ascot 2020). Ryan Moore. Aidan O'Brien. UK - Duration: 5:48. Global Horse Racing 2,448 views Epsom Derby & Oaks 2020 Preview & UK Racing Tips Epsom, Haydock * Yarmouth - 4th July 2020 We had four winners on Friday and hoping we can continue this form into the best weekend for flat racing ...