Exacta Betting on Horse Races - The Best Ways to Make a Profit

One Of The Gimmicks I Use And Have For Years

A while back, I mentioned that recording results at most tracks on the same day of week for a month can help you get a better feel of what you can expect. This, in turn, can help you be more prepared and even have more confidence when a week approaches that you are waiting to capitalize on, whether that be betting the favorites or finding something that offers value that will eventually release some of the stress and nervousness that most experience just prior to placing their bets. While I usually do not or can not use this angle on short meets like Saratoga, Keeneland, or Del Mar, I find it very helpful on the tracks with longer meets. However, this year, I have tracked the results for every Saturday on the Saratoga meet thus far, just to see if the angle works on this track like the others and the results is very telling, at least to me. But I will let others make that decision for themshelves.
Through five weekends, there have been 45 races contested on Saturdays. Favorites have won 17 of 45 races for a strike rate of 38%. 2nd choices have won 11 of 45 races for a strike rate of 24%. 3rd choices have won 8 of 45 races for a strike rate of 18%. 4th choices or longer have won 9 of 45 for a strike rate of 20%. Total 45 of 45 races = 100%.
First Saturday, July 13th--- Favorite won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%, returning $15.50 to win and $22.50 to place, including the ones that did not win but ran 2nd. 2nd choices won 5 of 11 races for a strike rate of 45%, returning a total of $36.10 for a $2 win bet of each, and $27.10 total on place betting the favorite, including ones that did not win but ran 2nd., One 4th choice, one 5th choice, and one 7th choice won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%. No third choice won a race this Saturday. There were four $1 exacta boxes with the top two choices combined for a strike rate of 36%, with all second choices finishing on top of the favorite in each, resulting in a total return of $37.70. There were three .50 trifecta boxes involving the top three choices(all 3 with the 2nd choice, favorite and third choice in that order) for a strike rate of 27%, resulting in a total return of $56.52.
Betting the minimum allowed throughout this day the result were as followed; Winning Favorites(3) returned 15.50 and 22.50 to place(6) for a total of $38 on $44 risked for a loss of $6. 2nd choices winners(5) returned $36.10 and $27.50 to place(6) for a total of $63.60 on $44 risked for a net profit of $19.60. As mentioned above the exactas returned $37.70 on $22 total risked for a net profit of $15.70 and trifecta, as also mentioned above, returned $56.52 on $33 risked for a net profit of $23.52. Total risked betting the minimum on each wager(with a realistic shot at cashing) was $143 and total returned was $195.82. Total profit was $52.82 or a ROI of 31%. All prices were taken off equibase results charts.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1 won, favorite finished 2nd @ 1.30-1, 4th choice finished 3rd @ 6.70-1.
2nd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1.
3rd Race: Favorite @ 1.40-1, 4th choice @ 4.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.35-1. Five horse field.
4th Race: Favorite @ 1.45-1, 7th choice(of 8) @ 19.10-1, 5th choice @ 9.70-1.
5th Race: Favorite @ 1.90-1, 3rd choice @ 4.80-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
6th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, 3rd choice @ 5.30-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
7th Race: 7th choice(of 9) @ 10.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.35-1, favorite @ 2.20-1.
8th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.70-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.85-1.
9th race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 2.90-1.
10th Race: 5th choice @ 12.60-1, 6th choice @ 13.30-1, favorite @ .85-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 5.30-1, 7th choice @ 12.30-1, 3rd choice @ 4.70-1.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money(1,2,3) in 10 of 11 races(3-4-3) or 90%. While that can be useful in exotic bets, you will need more to make your ROI on WP look decent. 2nd choices ran in the money 6 of 11 races(5-1-0) or 55%. Again reasonable but more is needed, at least for me. Third choices ran in the money a total of 6 of 11 races(0-2-4). An outsider(4th choice or longer) ran in the money 11 times(3-4-4) or 33% but only 8 of 11 different races or 73%, combining for 2 exactas, 2 trifectas with the heavy favorite 3rd in one and the third choice finishing third in the other. and a 7th choice on top of the second choice in second and favorite in third on another exacta/tri payoff.
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2nd Saturday, July 20th--- Canceled due to heat wave and not included in results which would make this even more telling.
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3rd Saturday, July 27----- Favorites won 3 of 12 races for a winning rate of 25%, returning $15.50 to win and $24.50 to place(7 total) for a total return of $40 on $48 risked, a loss of $8. 2nd choices won 2 of 12 races for a strike rate of 17%, returning $20.40 to win and 28.20 to place(5) on $48 risked, a profit of .60. Four $1 exacta boxes combining the two favorites for a strike rate of 33% and returned S44.70 on $24 risked, returning a profit of $20.70. Two .50 trifecta boxes came thru with the three top choices, for a strike rate of 17%, returning a total of $37.65 on $36 risked , for a net profit of $1.65. Betting each wager resulted in a total of $156 risked and a return of $168.95, a profit of $12.95.
On this weekend, favorites ran in the money 9 of 12 races(3-4-2) or 75%. 2nd choices finished 1,2,3, in 8 of 12 races(2-5-1) or 67%. Third choices finished in the money 6 of 12 races(3-0-3) or 50%. Outsiders finished in the money 10 of 12 different races or 83%,and a total of 13 placings(4-4-5) out of 36 possibilities or 36%.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.05-1, 2nd choice @ 3.45-1, 10th choice @ 37.75-1.
2nd Race: 3rd Choice @ 3.30-1, favorite @ 2.70-1, 4th choice @ 5.10-1.
3rd Race: 4th choice @ 6.60-1, favorite @ 2.60-1, 5th choice @ 7.50-1.
4th Race: Favorite @ .70-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 5.40-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 3.10-1, favorite @ 3.00-1, 3rd choice @ 3.25-1.
6th Race: 8th choice @ 22.70-1. 4th choice @ 5.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.75-1.
7th Race: 2nd choice @ 5.10-1, 8th choice @ 13.50-1, favorite @ 2.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.20-1, 4th choice @ 5.90-1, 6th choice @ 10.00-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.80-1, 6th choice @ 29.75(longest shot), favorite @ .50-1.
10th Race: 6th choice @ 13.60-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.80-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 4.60-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 2nd choice @ 2.70-1.
12th Race: favorite @ 2-1, 2nd choice @ 3.15-1, 9th choice @ 51.25-1.
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4th Saturday, August 3----- Favorites won 5 of 11 races or 45%, returning $30.90 to win and 21.30 to place(6) for a return of $52.20 on the risk of $44 for a profit of $8.20. 2nd choices won 2 races or 18%, returning 19.40 to win and 14.70 to place(3) for a return of 34.10, a loss of $9.90 on $44 risked. There were no exactas combining the two favorites that paid off and only one .50 trifecta with the first three choices boxed that returned $10.60 on a total $55 risked, thereby resulting in losses of $44.40 on the two exotic wagers. Total return of $97.90 on $143 risked would have resulted in a loss of $45.10, basically wiping out all your winnings for the first month of Saratoga's meet.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money 8 of 11 races(5-1-2) or 73% and even though most that ran well won, the net ROI was below acceptable because their win % is much higher than the long term average. Second choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-1-2) or 46% resulting in no exactas and only one trifecta box, which is extremely rare. 3rd choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-3-0) or 46%. But all was bet heavier than a third choice normally can be expected. Outsiders hit the board 14 times out of 33 possibilities(42%) but finished on top 2 of 11 or 18%, so bet even those two right resulted in a net loss. This was a weekend that betting superfectas really paid off, but extremely difficult to find the winning combinations, that is the ones that paid well.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.40-1, 6th choice @ 9.90-1, 4th choice @ 8.30-1.
2nd Race: Co-2nd choice @ 4.20-1, 6th choice @ 12.90-1, 4th choice @ 7.50-1.
3rd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.50-1, 6th choice @ 17.80-1, 10th choice(longest) @ 25.50-1.
4th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.60-1, 5th choice @ 8.60-1, 6th choice @ 8.70-1.
5th Race: 4th choice @ 5.50-1, 2nd choice @ 2.20-1, favorite @ 1.75-1.
6th Race: 5th choice @ 10.70-1, favorite @ 1-1, 8th choice @ 26.50-1.
7th Race: Favorite @ 1.95-1, 3rd choice @ 3.60-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 3.25-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
9th Race: favorite @ .85-1, 4th choice @ 8.50-1, 2nd choice @ 4.60-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 2.20-1, 3rd choice @ 2.75-1, 2nd choice @ 2.60-1.
11th Race: favorite @ 3.05-1, 3rd choice @ 5.00-1, 5th choice @ 8-1.
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Saturday, August 10------ Now we have cycled and begin the second and last month of Saratoga meet this year. Favorites won 6 of 11 races or 55% and returned $33.20 to win and $24.30 to place(7), resulting in a return of $57.50 on $44 risked and a net profit of $13.50. Second choice won 2 of 11 or 18% and returned 13.10 for the win and 19.10 for the place(5) for a net return of $32.20 and a loss of $11.80 on the $44 risked. There were 3 exactas or 27% with the first two choices that returned $25.40, for a net profit of $3.40. There were also 3 trifectas involving the top three choices or 27% that returned $55.76 on the risk of $33 for a net profit of $22.76.
On this Saturday, favorites finished in the money 8 of 11 races(6-1-1) or 73%. Second choices finished in the money 6 of 11 races(2-3-1) or 55%. Third choice finished in the money 6 of 11 races(3-0-3) or 55 %. Outsiders(4th choice or higher) hit the board 13 out of 33 possibilities or 39% but did not finish on top in any race of the 11.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, favorite @ 1.65-1, 3rd choice @ 4.10-1.
2nd Race: favorite @ 3.30-1, 5th choice @ 5.40-1, 6th choice @ 7,70-1.
3rd race: favorite @ 1.25-1, 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, 3rd choice @ 4.30-1.
4th Race: favorite @ 2.30-1, 7th choice @ 18.40-1, 3rd choice @ 4.60-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.05-1, 7th choice @ 22.80-1, 5th choice @ 11.60-1.
6th race: 3rd choice @ 2.95-1, 5th choice @ 11.80-1, 4th choice @ 9.20-1.
7th Race: favorite @ .60-1, co-4th choice @ 7.50-1, 6th choice @ 10.70.
8th Race: favorite @ 1.55-1, 2nd choice @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 8.20-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5-1, 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, favorite @ 1.85-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 1.60-1, 7th choice @ 19.10-1, 4th choice @ 4.30-1.
11th Race: 3rd choice @ 4.90-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1, 2nd choice @ 4.80-1.
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Now, I can not tell you if this information will help you. But I can tell you it helps me immensely at the tracks I have used it on. But I know exactly what help I am looking for before charting. Not only does it point me to the weeks that I probably can find value, it also points me to weeks where value will be limited and that is what helps me the most. The rest is on me to find the value and using this information gives me a ideal of who to use with them. The last time I charted a track, I went on an exacta and trifecta hitting streak by matching up week of month to the day I charted, on a four week interval. The only problem I have had using this information is when there is a five week in a given month, which normally occurs every third month. Then I have to make a slight adjustment or risk getting thrown off my pattern. It works for me and has for years, when I take time out and do the research. This is only one of several gimmicks that I use that gives me an added edge over the unprepared bettor, which is usually all I need.
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My Choices For Belmont Park, Saturday July 6(Belmont Oaks & Derby Day)

These are my choices at the moment for races this weekend. However, I plan to start watching the tote board again, a tactic I had a lot of success with years ago, before I installed my current plan of betting the horses. While tote board watching often gives you clues in which horse is most likely to win if you learn which one is receiving bets from "smart money" bettors, who usually are betting with some inside information that most of the public knows nothing and/or heard about. While most of my bets will stay the same, there will be a few occasions I decide to switch onto a more well regarded horse to try to hit exactas and trifectas more often. However, since this is usually just before post on most occasions, I will not be able to change my thoughts on any post in time, so I would encourage others to learn more about the real serious bettors. The only reason I do not like using this system is it tends to overlook horses that I think has a real shot at pulling an upset but that is mostly because they did not receive any inside information on these types.
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I will take a pass on races 1 and 3. There does not seem to be enough value in these races to take a risk on.
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Race 2 Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO & Up Restricted To NY Breds---Purse $41,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
Another fairly weak field, it offers value that will pay decently if you can beat the morning line favorite, who is not a lock against anyone, and a sucker type horse, who has gotten close several times, but has yet to complete the job. So my choices will be:
1)Keep The Light On(20-1)--- He has made one start in his career on a good turf course at 6 furlongs and was last for most of the way before picking up a few tired and inexperienced horses in the stretch. But his bloodlines suggest he will be better at middle distances on grass and he gets that opportunity in here. His sire, Willcox Inn, was a multiple G1 Stakes placed runner who finished just behind Wise Dan twice in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile while 2nd one year and third the next year. This will be his only crop to race as he was fatally injured in a paddock injury while wrapping up his only season at stud.
11) Millies Party Boy(6-1) is my choice for second. He finished third in his first career start and then tolled in maiden special races for seven more starts, always offering a late run but left with too much to do. Then dropped into maiden claiming and after a couple of decent runs in this class, he looked ready to graduate late last year, finishing second by a neck and then third, beaten two lengths. Then he was entered in two dirt races to finish up the year and he responded with two of the worst races of his career. With one start this year in an open bred maiden special weight where he returned to his old style and made a solid run to get into contention before flattening out in the stretch in his first start in seven months. Again he signaled he is ready to graduate. But this time he is entered in the right class, restricted to state breds, and on the right surface.
10)Golconda(8-1) is my choice for third. He has made 11 starts with 2 seconds and a third as his best efforts. He beat my second choice in his only on the board finish on grass in five starts on a yielding turf but was beaten by that foe in their next start on a good turf when my second choice just missed graduating. Since those races, they look like they have gone in opposite directions. However, since he is dropping back down into the class he seems to fit best in and his last two works since his last start was his best in his recent past, he could be signaling he is ready to wake up and produce his best run.
5)No More Miracles(6-1) is my choice for fourth. After 5 starts on dirt and performing poorly in each, he was switched to grass sprints and came alive in his last two. But 1 1/16 miles is probably a little farther than what should be his best distance and therefore I will place him here. However, I think he will be closer if the race remains on grass but is less than firm, as I expect him to be near the lead throughout.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-10-11, .10 Super Box 1-5-10-11, Super Key 1 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11.
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Race 4: Allowance ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- Purse $66,000 ---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
8)Bangle Girl(4-1) is my choice to win. She is exiting her maiden win but has faced several highly regarded NY breds in her two worst races, including the one(Newly Minted) who ran by the heavy favorite in here with ease. Her sire, Emcee, is a G1 winning sprinter and her broodmare sire, Hold That Tiger, is a G1 winning middle distance runner but his best known son is Smiling Tiger, a multiple G1 winning sprinter in his own right.
4)Cathy Naz(8-1) is my choice for second. While she should get a pretty good trip behind two dueling front runners, my top choice will probably get to sit the better trip and be gone before she can catch up to that one. While it looks like this is a step up for her, she actually is the only horse in the race to finish in front of open bred multiple winners and older fillies. Actually, the filly that beat her in her last two ran 2nd to Highway Star( at 2-5) late last year in a big state bred stakes. She also looks like she is cycling back into her best form, judging by 4 good works since her last.
6)Mary's Girl(12-1) is my choice for third. She has been racing in multiple winners races, but they have been restricted to 3 YOs and NY breds and this is a step up in class for her. However, she, too, looks like she is peaking into her best form and she has not only the bloodlines but also has developed a late run that should help her. The main question with her is can she handled the rise in class?
1)OK Honey(20-1) is my choice for fourth. At first glance, it looks like she does not have much of a chance to make an impact. While both her sire, Haynesfield, and broodmare sire, Not For Love, both won distance races in their racing careers, both have more foals that are better at sprinting compared to distance racing. And she seems to be following that same route. Her five placing in twelve starts suggests 6 furlongs is a little short for her but a mile is a tad further that she wants, as she has made several moves to get the lead, only to get ran down near the finish. And like several other, she appears to be regaining her best form after four uninspiring tries after winning before an improved race in her last start after stepping into an open bred race. Now she returns to NY bred and gets a distance that should be more to her liking.
Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 4-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-8, Super Key 8 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.
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Race 5: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 Yos --- Purse $80,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
1)Hard Sting(12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start off a series of good works. His sire, Hard Spun, won 7 of 13 lifetime starts but also finished second in the Ky Derby and BC Classic, third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont S while banking over $2.6M. Hard Sting's dam, Smart Sting, won 4 of 13 lifetime starts including a couple of Canadian stakes races and banked over $400K while spending her career on the AWT and/or grass. Second dam, Perfect Sting, won 14 of 21 lifetime starts while banking $2.2M, almost all on grass. Another Stonach bred and a horse he kept to run.
6)Montauk Daddy(3-1) is my choice for second. He has made one start, an off the grass race ran on an sloppy track and he closed well to finish second in a good time. While his sire, Daddy Long Legs, is not one of the best foals of turf specialist Scat Daddy, he did win the UAE Derby. He did not hit the board in any of his last 11 starts, including a did not finish in the Ky Derby. Montauk Daddy's broodmare sire, Old Fashioned, won his first four starts before finishing second in both the G2 Rebel S And G2 Arkansas Derby before an injury forced his retirement. However, Montauk Daddy's dam line is stocked full of serious grass runners.
8)Now Is(20-1) is my choice for third, though I believe he has a good to solid shot at an upset. He has made two lifetime starts, the first on grass where he broke a little slow, then tracked the pace but was no match for the top two. Then he was tried in a stakes race on dirt and was simply overmatched at this point in his career. Now entered back on the surface he will eventually prefer most and another furlong to work with, I expect him to get out front and wing it. While there is other speed signed up, they better have their running shoes on from the get go, because a minor hesitation is all this one will need to wire this field. His sire, Sidney's Candy, was fast from the gate on dirt but appeared even faster on grass.
3)Silver Promise(6-1) is my choice for fourth. He is another well bred sort that is working good for his debut. He looks like the only one fast enough to go with my third and my top choice early and if he breaks a little slow, which is always possible with first time starters, the outcome may be a foregone conclusion. His sire Declaration Of War and his broodmare sire, Tapit, both had some speed but neither was lightning fast from the gate.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Ex Key 8 with 1-6, Ex Key 1-6 with 8, Tri Box 1-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-8, Super Key 1 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8.
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Race 6: Dwyer S(G3) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $250,000 --- 1 Mile:
4)Whiskey Echo(20-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start this year and won in a good time. He has since worked out four times, with three bullets followed by an maintenance breeze. His sire, Tiznow, is one everyone should know about but the dam line is probably a mystery to most. While Whiskey Echo's dam was unraced, his 2nd dam, Aishah, is a G2 winning full sister to Althea, Champion 2 YO Filly Of 1983 who shattered the Arkansas Derby stakes record in 1984 while equaling Oaklawn Park's track record for 1 1/8 mile. This horse was born to run and so far he has!
3)Code Of Honor(4-5) is my choice to finish second and will be heavily bet. While he has raced against the best competition thus far, he has beaten very little in both his wins and that makes him vulnerable in this spot.
6)Majid(6-1) is my choice for third. He will try to take this field from gate to wire as he has done in each of his last three starts, but better horses are signed up for this test that any of those races. While I believe he will crumble due to the early pressure, he should hang around for a piece in such a short field.
2)Rowayton(3-1) is my choice for fourth. He is one who will apply early pressure on my third choice but he has yet to prove he can put away other speed and keep going up to a mile. His broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, always gives me reservations about using any of his foals in exactas and trifectas when they are going longer than 7 furlongs with other front runners present as most of them are prong to stopping badly when faced with heavy pressure.
Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 4 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6.
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7th Race: Belmont Oaks(G1) --- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $750,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
6)Just Wonderful(6-1) is my choice to win. She has made three starts this year, all at 1 mile and she showed little in each. However, the filly who won the first 2 and finished second in the last one(Hermosa) is Europe's leading 3 YO filly miler at this point and she also beat Just Wonderful in her only G1 test in Europe last year. But Just Wonderful will do better as the distances gets longer. Her dam, Wading's 3/4 sister, Athena, shipped over here last year to win this race for her only G1 score to date. Just Wonderful's third dam, Urban Sea, is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both champions and top sires in Europe.
1)Olendon(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made three starts this year and has improved in each, including her first G1 placing in her last. While that race is an important European test, it pales in comparison to the three my top choice competed in this year. She has a good blend of speed and distance in both the sire and dam lines and should make her presence known late.
9)Cambier Parc(4-1) is my choice for third. She has won three of her four starts this year but now gets the acid test. Her sire, Medaglia D'Oro and her broodmare sire, Point Given, are both multiple G1 winners on dirt but her dam,Sealy Hill, is multiple G1 placed on grass and won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT.
3)Coral Beach(15-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, has made three starts this year, the first two in the French and Ireland 1,000 Guineas, a race for top European 3 YO fillies milers and then the Sandringham S where she produce her best run this year against easier. But she probably still needed that start to reach her best shape and now should be ready to get it her best effort. While her sire, Zoffany, was a top sprintemiler during his racing career, her broodmare sire, Tiger Hill, completed against the best distance horses in Europe. She also has some more distance help in her dam line as third dam is a daughter of Surumu, a product of Germany's best distance sire line for more than 150 years.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9.
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8th Race: John A Nerud S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 7 Furlongs:
9) Promises Fulfilled(2-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with one third his best effort. But in his last, chart says he stumbled at the start, but all I saw was he was a little sluggish to get in gear. However, the jockey tried to get him to rate after he saw he could not get the lead as the horse prefers and he flatten out in the stretch. But it was the type of race he needed to get him to his peak form. His 2-1 M/L odds is very generous, so I would not expect him to get off at those odds.
4)Nicodemus(6-1) is my choice for second. He has made 5 starts this year, missing the board in every other start while winning twice. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting back to back races together. While his sire, Candy Ride is known for foals with high speed, he probably gets his closing ability from his dam, Leah's Secret, who won several G2 stakes during her racing career, all from off the pace. However, her sire, Tiger Ridge is the only horse you will ever see that has both Secretariat's top two producing daughters as dam and grand dam. His sire is Storm Cat, a son of Terlingua, while his dam is Weekend Surprise.
2)New York Central(8-1) is my choice to finish third. Early in his career, he was a need the lead type that threw clunkers when someone outbroke him. But since he has been shorten back up to sprints, he has shown a willingness to rate, something he will need to hit the board in this spot.
1)Majestic Dunhill(15-1) is my choice for fourth. he has four starts this year and appears to be regaining his best form. While he normally comes for way back with a late rush in the stretch, you can expect him to be picking off horses late and could possibly get involved in the exacta, though I think winning is unlikely, mostly due to my top choice.
Bets: No WP, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, Tri Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4, Super Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4.
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Race 9: Belmont Derby(G1) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
9)Cape Of Good Hope(10-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with 1 win in a non graded stakes, but it was a prep for the Epsom Derby. However, O'Brien is usually loaded with three years old colts and he decided to send this one to contest the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club and he just missed becoming a G1 placed in that effort. I'm throwing his last out as maybe he did not like the give in the turf course that day. He has two graded stakes winning full brothers, Highland Reel, who most probably heard of as he made three trips to the U.S, winning the G1 Secretariat, then returning the next year to win the G1 BC Turf and then the nest year to finish third in the BC Turf and Idaho, third in the Epsom Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby, among several other top races.
5)Plus Que Parfait(20-1) is my choice for second. He has one win in four starts this year but now is switching to the surface he was originally bred for. While he made his first lifetime start on grass at a mile and finished third, he was then switched to dirt where he was inconsistent. Now a return to his best surface and a little more distance, he should be around at the end.
4)English Bee(30-1) is my choice for third. He won his last start which was his first stakes win and now gets the acid test to prove he belongs with the top grass runners. He has the perfect pattern for young horses who are poised to run their career best race. And while this race is stocked with horses who may like the 1 1/4 mile distance, none is even close to the bloodlines and proven distance loving abilities of both his sire, English Channel and his broodmare sire, Kitten's Joy. Both English Channel and Kitten's Joy was beaten by Better Talk Now in separate BC Turfs but English Channel returned in 2007 and turned the BC Turf in a laughter, beating Better Talk Now and Europe's best by 7 lengths.
3)Seismic Wave(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and he just missed hitting the board in his only non placing as he was forced to go wide and circled the field to miss winning by 1 1/2 lengths. Now the added distance will only help him. While the talk has always been about Northern Dancer as a sire, it is his dam line that made him the sire he turned out to be and she, Natalma, appears as the sixth dam of Seismic Wave, meaning he traces tail female back into Almahmoud and later into Fair Play's grandson and Mother Goose, a filly who has a race named in her honor.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 5-9, Tri Box 4-5-9, .10 Super Box 3-4-5-9, Super Key 9 With 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 With 3-4-5.
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Race 10: Suburban S(G2) --- 3 Yo & Up--- Purse $700,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile:
3) Rocketry(8-1) is my choice to win. He tried in vain to catch the only speed who set a snail pace in their last and just manage to hold off his late run. With more speed signed on, I look for him to blow by the front runners in here.
11) Pavel(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He is following basically the same pattern as he followed last year. Last year, he started with a fourth in the San Pasqual, followed by a fourth in the Dubai World Cup and a fourth in the Gold Cup at SA before winning the G1 Stephen Foster H. This year, after a fourth in both the San Pasqual & Dubai World Cup, he finished sixth in the Metropolitan Mile. Now he enters the G2 Suburban S off two decent works and his fourth start this year. He also adds blinkers and that signals to me that his trainer wants to keep him just behind the early pace setters.
5) Lone Sailor(8-1) is my choice for third. He cycled back into his best form two starts back, then was sent to California to contest a G1 on a track that works against his style of running but he managed to finished a distant third. Now with two decent works since returning from that effort, I feel he is ready to fire again over several of these he is entered against. Now he adds blinkers which should help him stay a little closer to the pace.
10)Cordmaker(12-1)is my choice for fourth. It looks like his trainer has been taking his time with this one to let him mature and he has slowly improved step by step. Now it is time to see what they have developed. While he is taking a big step up in class, his bloodlines suggests he should handle it and if this was not his first attempt at this class, he would be in my top two picks.
Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 3-5-11, .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11, Super Key 3 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11.
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Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 YO & Up ---Purse $80,000 ---- 1 Mile Turf:
9) Windward Sands(3-1) is my choice to win. A member of the last crop of Scat Daddy, she is working like she will win early in her career. Trainer Brown is sneaky good at having his horses ready at first asking, especially on grass.
1)Downstream(12-1) is my choice for second. She has made one start and after setting the pace for six furlongs on a yielding grass course, she did a steady retreat. But the horse pressing her throughout was Newspaperofrecord who drew away at ease and made her race look worse than it actually was.
2) Ledecka(7-2) is my choice for third. She has finished second in both of her starts, so that is the biggest reason to place her here. Also, experience counts in my book and she has ran credible both times while getting a little education in each. But this will be by far her biggest challenge as there looks like several newcomers with real ability to challenge her.
11)Foolish Living(6-1) is my choice for fourth. Another Brown trainee, she, too, is making her first start and has some sneaky good works, much like my top choice. While I think she has some good bloodlines, I prefer the other Brown's trainee bloodlines more.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-9-11, Super Key 9 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11.
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The Angles I Use: Updated And Requested By A Few Others

1) Fourth Race Back After A Six Month Or Longer Break Or After Going Off Form. You will see a few horses win in their first start back after a long break, but the trainer has prepared the horse with a lot of works, either on track or on their private training track(which they do not have to report to any racing jurisdiction). All track requires all horses to have a race or a recorded workout within three months before they are allowed to run. Then you will see a few more horses win in their second start back after a six month break, but this indicates the trainer did all he could think would help to get the horse fit before racing, but the horse still needed a start. Same with their third start back, but maybe with a few lighter works. But their fourth start back after a six month or longer break, at least to me, is the best opportunity you will get to capitalize on a major score you will remember for years(and you will know it was not a guess but a well thought out plan). But I will emphasize that the trainer must at least give some indication that he knows a little about getting a horse to peak. 10% winning and 30% in the money(1,2,3) is the baseline I use. You will see many horses that looks like they are not improving after three starts and I would suggest waiting until they start showing some run before risking any money on them(I do when I am winning at the track, but not so much when I try to force them to run). But over 80% of them that wins or runs second in their fourth start back show some type of improvement in their third start back, but often not enough to get the masses to bet on them.
Horses that have tailed off after being in form for a few races are much harder to dictate, mostly because it is more difficult to decide when they are going off form, either immediately after winning or tough race and/or a gradual descend into going off form. After years of struggling to find a way to tell if they are going off form or simply had a bad race, I feel I have learn enough to sometimes give me a clue to which one they are indicating. But there is no set angle that would help you that is explainable, so I can only suggest that you will pick up little tidbits at a time by learning to read the running lines of each horse that would help you immensely. Watching how fast they are running or the pace is will not tell you anything as far as conditioning is concerned. Only running lines can give you that information. Time and class is important after you decide if the horse is in peak form but the best horse will only take your money if he is not in shape and/or going off form.
Also, most trainers realize when their horse is not in top form by the way they are acting and/or working. But a trainer makes the bulk of his disposable income by getting horses to win. The fees he charges an owner to train their horse is enough to support his family and make a decent living, but the extras from winning purses are what most seeks on a daily basis. Most of the top trainers knows what it will take to get their horse(s) back to top fitness but they also know it will take weeks or months of steady hard works and/or racing to move their charge back to top condition.
Horses that had less than a five or six month break will usually not need four starts back after a brief freshening to regain his top form. Horses given a 2-3 month break between races on paper are often taken from the track to give a freshening, but the trainer, especially if he knows what he is trying to accomplish, will still work the horse on a private training track(usually his own) and these works are not required to be reported to race tracks because they are not recognized as official workouts. Trainers, however, are required to have at least one published workout and/or race within a three month period(used to be a 2 month period and maybe still is required at some tracks) before a horse is allowed to run again. Stewards are required to scratch any horse that does not meet this criteria and will fine trainers, if they believe he is intentionally negligent or trying to be deceitful.
2) Third Race After A Winning Effort Angle: This angle came from reading a book but was also mentioned in several seminars held by public handicappers and sportswriters in the 1980's. The idea was to help bettors become better handicappers and give them an angle that worked over and over. This angle suggested that horses would win in every third start while they are in form. The theory was the winning race would take enough out of them that it took 2 starts to regain their form. And while this angle seemed to produce over and over, the winning horses started losing their value because the more that learned about this angle, the less value it offered. But since the seminars was phrased out mostly because of a few deceitful public handicappers, this angle returned to producing good to solid returns.
However, after I spent a couple of years charting this angle, I noticed there was more value in betting these types when the horse throws a bad race after winning, then runs an improved effort in his next start but finishing no better than third but no better than fourth is even more preferred. The odds are better because most will think the horse ran third or fourth because "someone had to run there". The opposite way, where the horse ran third or second after a winning effort, then throws a bad race is more likely an indication they have gone off form, from my research. Also, their odds will usually not be worth the value you should be seeking, if you want to win long term. Everybody has days where it best to stay away from the track because no matter what you do or believe in, your horse(s) will not perform up to your expectations. When a horse runs two poor races in his next 2 races after his winning effort, I will usually not consider him at all unless he is dropping below his winning level or took a steep step up(two or more classes) in class in those two starts. More likely, he has gone off form but when he has not, you can expect and will get box car odds. However, when he takes only a small step up in those two starts, then enters back in his winning class level in his third start back, I will make this type beat me. The reason is most trainers will not drop a horse back down if he feels he is still fit but even, if he does, the odds will be lower than what I want to risk money on.
Also when I first charted this angle, it stipulated a horse had to win his third start back. But after watching several who ran a 2nd or 3rd in his third start back and winning that 3rd start and paying humongous odds, I decided to start considering these types of horses with this angle, though I have never seen it written or even implied it might be effective. And this is where I get many longshot type winners because most think his close 2nd or 3rd is the best he could do while in form, so what should be different today. Actually, the horse actually ran his best race in most occasions, but he was simply beaten that day. And he too could need 2 races to get back to his top fitness level. The whole idea of this angle is betting a horse while he is in form, but a hard race will usually take enough conditioning out of most horses that it takes two races to regain his top level of fitness(and even more if he is knocked off form or better known as tired and sluggish).
3) Third In Last Start When Beaten By 2 Lengths Or More By The Winner And Second Place Finishers. This angle was returning boxcar winners and place horses in their next start at GP in 2018. And I have not focused enough on GP this year to determine if this angle is still producing there. Most bettors in the know will consider this type of horse in their next start if the horse is beaten less than 4 lengths when third, but almost none will consider this type if he is beaten by more than 5 lengths. But I will and I do. Actually the best odds using this type of angles comes when the horse is beaten between 5-10 lengths by the winner, regardless of how far the 2nd place horse finishes behind the winner.
The whole idea behind this angle is the jockey may realize that the winner will be almost impossible to catch, so he will ease up on his horse to save a little punch(energy) for his next race. While he will attempt to make it look like he is trying, due to many bettors who complains he is not even trying to win(which he isn't), he has to make an attempt to make it look like a hard try or face possible disciplinary action from the stewards of that track. While I have some other information or rules that would be helpful to understand this angle more, I will not go there due too many who believes the internet is the best source to get their facts, though it is spotted with half truths and/or simply wrong information. I am not about arguing who is right or wrong, I simply am out to make the most money possible with the least amount risked.
4)Speed To The Top Of The Stretch Before Fading In The Stretch Run Angle: This is an angle that I have used with a lot of success thru the years. It simply means as a horse is starting to peak into his best condition, he will tend to hang around longer than any of his most recent races. When I first posted this angle, there were several handicappers on this sub-reddit that asked if it was better betting a horse that faded slightly or did a steady fade in the stretch run. Since I have used both on occasions(but not in the same race), I really did not have an answer at that time.
But when I was looking thru the angles that I had charted many years ago, I had written in my notes the type I preferred. As I have stated, I used both types, but the ones who did a steady fade after staying within two lengths of the lead until the top of the stretch is both more reliable and has higher odds in their next start. The reason a steady fade works better is simple. A jockey may realize his horse is finished trying for that day and will not persevere with trying to win that race, though he has to give a half-hearted effort or get blame for not trying to do his best(which he will be accused of regardless of effort given if horse is heavily bet). Horse that fades slightly are most often giving their maximum effort because the jockey still believes he can coax the horse into winning that day and will often take a little more condition out of that horse that will hurt the horse more than help it in its next start.
Also, I will not bet a horse back that has a clear lead until the top of the stretch and then fades slightly or steadily. This type of horse is most likely a quitter and will stop on his own on most occasions, with or without early pressure. But most horses will face some type of pressure at some point in the race. And when I have previously decided to use this type, I am often left wondering why I thought a horse who faced a little pressure and faded would do better when he is facing even more early pressure.
5)Trip Handicapping. This is an important angle to consider. While I first read about this angle in several of Beyers books, it was the first thing I realized about racing that could be important and I used from day one of my handicapping career. But seeing it in print only confirmed what I believe was often the difference between winning and losing in a lot of races. Noting when a horse has to check and then rebuild speed, get caught behind a wall of horses and having to ease up to wait for running room, horses losing a lot of ground by having to go wide to keep his momentum, bumping and getting squeezed out of the gate, even jockeys trying to time the break and causing the horse to break flat footed(to regain balance) are all part of trip handicapping and can be the difference from a solid race or a ho-hum effort. Jockeys making the wrong split second decision whether to stay inside or try to circle the field also has a major effect on the outcome of races and even top jockeys are prone to making a mistake.
And on the flip side, noticing when a horse got the perfect set up and won because he had a perfect trip(otherwise, he lets other do the hard work and picks up the pieces after the front runners tires) will give you opportunities to make a big score if you learn to recognize the situation. Horses rarely get two perfect type trips in a career, much less two races in a row
6) Bloodlines--- Bloodlines is probably the most mis-understood of all angles out there and that is because there is very few experts that had actually done any type of research, other than copy the sayings of a few earlier experts and passing them along. It requires more study than a five minute glance but for those willing to learn, it can make a world of difference to your bankroll.
For example, experts have always consider that Eclipse of 1764 was the original carrier of the large heart gene. Sure, he won all 18 of his lifetime starts, but the biggest field he faced in those 18 races were 4 other horses twice(most of his other races had one challenger or none). But they are wrong and here is why. As a sire, the original Eclipse never finished as the top sire in any year he stood, finishing no better than second to Herod and his son Highflyer. Every one of his top runners had the Herod or Matchem in their dam families and they were the two stallions that combined to form the large heart gene(Match 'Em grandson & Herod's grand daughter(thru Highflyer) formed one line and then Highflyer was bred to Matchem's daughter to produce another daughter that form another line that displayed the large heart gene). Even then, only two of Eclipse sons made a lasting impression on the breed but it was not because of him but rather whom their sons or grandsons were bred to a couple of generations later(Herod/Matchem cross).
From 1764 thru 1855, there were supposedly 22 horses that had the name of Eclipse when they first race but another name was added after their career began to help bettors separate one Eclipse from another. However, the Eclipse of 1855 held that name only throughout his racing career and stallion career. He won 5 of 9 starts on the race track but one of his son(Alarm) was responsible for the Domino sire line. This is also the Eclipse that a biopsy was performed on after his death and it was determined his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's heart. But this Eclipse's dam(Gaze) was inbred 5x5 to Penelope and Prunella(dam of Penelope) also showed up in her 5th generation. Penelope also showed up in the sire line of this Eclipse in the 5th generation, making it 4 crosses with a large heart gene carrier.
I am adding all of this above to hopefully make you realize that experts can be wrong also, especially if they did not do research for them shelves and only copy old material that is often not accurate. A computer is only as smart as the person who puts the info into it.
I use bloodlines several different ways. First, it helps me to determine which surface a horse will most likely prefer. If a sire made the bulk of his money(or even a better indicator is wins and in the money(1,2,3) on grass throughout his career and did little or nothing on dirt, then I will be reluctant to bet one of his foals until the trainer gets them on the right surface. Most horses will prefer one surface over another, though there are some who will run well on both. Even these types will tend to run slower on one surface over the other when you compare their style, pace and running times.
Then I will take a look at the sire's best distance during his racing career. This is not necessarily the longest distance or the shortest distance the sire won at, but the distance where I feel he runs his top race. I also look for the type of runner the sire was, whether that be front running speed, slightly off the pace, and one who liked to gather him self and make a late run. Some horses are naturally gifted at breaking on cue while others tend to break flat footed and takes a stride or two to get going. I'm sure most of you have seen or heard of a horse hitting the gate at the start. This occurs mostly in young horses, such as 2 YOs because the jockey will usually try to time the break to get a head start which is huge in short races, but not as important in mid distance races or longer. If he succeeds he looks like a genius but when he fails, it usually causes the horse all chance of winning. However, just because a sire won a graded stakes or several graded stakes in his career does not mean he will sire even one stake winner, much less dozens of them. But it does give you a clue as to what type of running style his foals will have. If he had blazing speed from the gate, then most likely his best foals will display similar speed. The top trainers normally takes a look at a sire's natural ability and try to copy that style with his foals.
Next, I take a look at the dam and if she has enough starts, then I follow the same procedure with her as I do the sire. I determine which surface the dam favor, her running style, and her best distance. If I feel she did not have enough starts to get a clear picture and/or she had a poor trainer, then I will use the broodmare sire(her sire) instead. While she too may not produce a foal that was as good as her or will compete in the same class she did, their running style and preferred surface will usually be similar unless the trainer teaches her foals a different method of running that he believes will make the foal a better runner. However, most trainers will not switch anything at all in the foals, in fear of making them less profitable for the owners and them too.

And while I am on the subject, trainers are the key to all of these angles simply because if they do know how to get a horse fit and/or can not tell when a horse is improving, then he will waste most of his life getting horses near peak and then making ill advised moves that will cause the horse to go off form(such as running him in class that the horse cannot compete in after getting him fit). But trainers are out to win because training is their livelihood and they will struggle just like anyone else if they cannot win on occasion. However, just because a trainer has a win percentage of around 10%, he may not have the stock or clientele of more well known trainers, he usually knows when his horse is fit as well as the more highly regarded trainers do. Run an unfit horse, you can expect a bad race. Run a horse that peaked in his second start back and is beginning to go off form, expect an less than top effort. But run a horse when he is signaling he is feeling better than he has in a while and expect an on the board finished at least, with a win very possible. Current conditioning is always the key.

These are the six major angles that I look for on a consistent basis. I use every one of these angles to help me narrow down my choices the quickest way possible while pointing me to live horses that will lead me to huge payoffs. I am not interested in betting when payoffs are low because that will mean you are spinning your wheels and wasting time, just trying to stay even or making just enough money to get to try again the next day or week. When I bet, I strive for making enough money to cover all my bets for a couple of months, off one solid score. Anything more is simply added rewards that I put away and use on other things I enjoy. But I started out the same as most handicappers, betting a lot of low odds horses and seeing them get beat much more often than they were winning. I got tired of spending hard earned cash and having nothing to show for it. But I eventually got the message and I realized that I could go thru life trying the same old things that were not working well enough for me to succeed and hoping for a different outcome one day or I could do research and pick up new ideas that would make me a better handicapper. I chose the latter and while it was hard work and continues to be hard work, the rewards are much better this way than my old way of handicapping.

So does any of this really work? Make you own call. While it does not in every race. you will be presented with enough opportunities to take your game to a higher level with very little at risk. I will give you a few examples that occurred last Saturday night at CD, June 15th. But realize I did not hit any of these exactas, mostly because I overlooked these angles. While they still came through, like they do very often, first finding them and then be willing to risk a few dollars, regardless of odds, will make all the difference in your bankroll.
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1st Race was a maiden special weight for 3 YO & Up going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. While I bet a first time starter that was listed at 20-1 M/L but eventually got off a 45-1 and ran 2nd. He had good works and a decent trainer, but I was drawn to the fact his sire was Distorted Humor, a son of Forty Niner and his broodmare sire is Danzig. Danzig's foals are known for their grass and off tracks abilities. especially in sprints. Bet him to WP and he came out first and led to deep stretch when he got caught.

While I boxed an Animal Kingdom son with him in an exacta box, he proved to me that he really did not want any part of such a short distance, which I figured as much, but bet him anyway.

However, the winner was a son of Verrazano and grandson of More Than Ready. More Than Ready is another sire than is on my short list of sire to watch in sprints, whether on grass or dirt. He had one start and ran 2nd in a maiden claiming race and was stepping up in class. This was the reason I decided to go another way, but the trainer and jockey had teamed up to bring another 35-1 on top in a 5 Furlong turf sprint at CD, exactly five weeks before, and I was on that one. Actually, the only horses to run second or third in their previous race coming in to this race, completed the exacta, tri and superfecta! None had proven they were not willing to pass. These three exotic wagers would have netted anyone over $1G with the minimum bet on each one boxed, all for less than $10 invested.

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2nd Race was a maiden special weight for 3 YO & Up F&M going 1 mile on dirt. Sally's Curlin was making her 4th start this year, twice finishing 3rd behind runaway winners on speed favoring tracks and then 5th against this class in her last. But her prior two starts, came at 1 1/16 mile and 1 1/8 mile and both were a little longer than her broodmare sire, More Than Ready(yes that one), performed his best at throughout his career and has sired. Shorting back up to a mile, she sat near the rear, made an explosive move and won going away.

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6th Race was the Wise Dan S at 1 1/16 mile on grass. While I had a case of tunnel vision when I was handicapping this race, it proved to be a major error. I bet two horses that did not conformed to any of my angles and it proved costly. The winner, March To The Arch, ran an even fifth in a G1 stakes race in his last and was the only one entered in this race than had ran in a G1 in his last, which the exception of the import who I bet.

All Right ran 2nd at 71-1. If you read what I type about the third race back after a win, he fit that angle to a T. Not only did he run a poor race in his next, he ran an much improved race the race after that and equibase charts noted he need a seam, otherwise behind a wall of horses and could not get through.

The horse that ran third, Admission Office, ran 2nd in a G2 in his last start prior to this effort and he was the only one in this field that had done so. With a little knowledge about recent class and one of the angles i use, betting the minimum of less than $10 would have netted anyone more than $8.5K. A life changing amount, in most instances.

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The 8th race was the Steven F Foster S and the winner, Seeking The Gold, was making his third start back after putting in his best race in the Pegasus World Cup, but was used hard to get up for second behind the runaway winner on a sloppy race track. Then he traveled half the way around the world and put in a poor effort. Returnedto The U.s, he then finished 3rd in his next which set him up nicely for this effort.

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The 9th race was the Regret S. The winner, Hard Legacy , was making her third start back after a winning effort. First she ran an even race in a G3 race, her first effort against graded horses. Then she returned against G2 caliber horses and she ran even again, though she pick up a few horses but not much gain on the top horse. She returned this race and was sent out front for the lead, set most of the pace and held the runner up safe.

The runner up, Winter Sunset, was my best pick of the day simply because I thought she would get the lead and win going away. Winter Sunset was also working on her third start since the last win, and like the winner, faced off against graded horses in both. While I rarely put two of the same angle horse together in an exacta box(which I didn't this time either), it would have been beneficial in this case as the 2nd choice in my tri box ran 5th.

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The 11th race was a maiden claiming for $30,000 for 3 YO & Up at 6 furlongs. I was betting the winner all the way simply because he was returning on the same class as his first start but which he was claimed out of. His sire was Flatter, who broke his maiden in his second start at 6 furlongs but did not mature into the top runner he ended up being until late in his 5 YO season. The Cadron Flats's broodmare sire was Diablo, was a fast sprinter throughout his career and a son of Devil's Bag, another high class speedster.

Now you will not find these angles every day or even every week, because they are buried in thousands of other useful pieces of information, but you will get several opportunities every month if you do not let your guard down.
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My Picks For Oaklawn Park 3-16-2019

I will post my choices at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Day. I am testing a new betting strategy for races when I think low odds horses will win and/or fill most of the exotics slots in races they look the best. While I am still a strong believer in the system and/or angles I already have in place, it never hurts to pick up small change when the opportunity arises. I also am one who rarely gets complacent and always willing to adjust my thoughts if I feel it can be beneficial.

RACE 1: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 Yos-- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP will be 10) V Tach MD(15-1). He has started once in his career at Emerald Downs, where he set the pace but got caught in 5 furlongs by the second choice and finished 2nd. Emerald Downs is known for fast paces but most front runners normally gets caught in the stretch at that track. He was no different. He has since switched barns and moves to a track that will flatter his speed. His sire, Majesticperfection, ran 3rd in his first career start as a 4 YO and then reel off five straight wins, including an allowance race at OP in 108 3/5 and concluded his career by winning the G1 AG Vanderbilt S at Saratoga, also in 108 3/5. V Tach MD's broodmare sire, Proud Citizen, ran 2nd in the Ky Derby and 3rd in The Preakness S in 2002 to War Emblem and has sired two Ky Oaks winning fillies, one a close relative of this colt. I do not expect him to get 15-1 against these, mostly because those odds represents a major overlay. Drayden Van Dyke picks up the mount.

My choice for my exacta box will be 8)Alex of Ice(6-1). A first time starter, he is a son of Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness S & Belmont S in 2005 after finishing 3rd in the Ky Derby. Alex Of Ice's broodmare sire, Devil On Ice won 10 of 22 lifetime starts, mostly allowances at tracks like Belmont Park, Saratoga, GP and Monmouth Park. He was also G3 stakes placed. His trainer, Steve Hobby, knows how to prepare them to race but usually gets more serious with them after a start or two. Have to use this horse in this spot.

I will use the 6)All About Will(6-1) to complete my trifecta box. His sire, Will Take Charge, took a while before finally reaching his potential, though he showed flashes of being good throughout his career. He won the G2 Rebel S, G1 Travers S, and G2 Pennsylvania Derby before being beaten a nose while closing fast in the G1 BC Classic. All About Will has one career start and try to close on a sloppy track to finish fourth. I know most believe OP is a speed favoring track, but actually a late runner always has a shot if there is no moisture in the track or if they can get a ground saving run on the rail when moisture is present, especially if the front runners can not get the rail and/or decides to move off the rail.

I will use 3)Barefootbootlegger(30-1) in a super box and key. He, too, has one career start and he pressed the pace with another longshot and the favorite in that race at Oaklawn Park on a sloppy track before the favorite put them away and just managed to hold on for the win, beating the horse(2nd favorite) watching the duel early along the rail by a neck. While Barefootbootlegger's sire, Storm's Eye, faded in his only career start after breaking poorly and then flashing speed, he is from speed influences families on both sides of his pedigree. Also, Barefootbootlegger's 3rd dam, That's My Hon, is better known as the 2nd dam of Kitten's Joy. Worth a shot to me.

My Bets for Race 1: $10 WP 10, $5 Exacta Box 8-10, $1 Tri Box 6-8-10, .10 Super Box 3-6-8-10. .50 Super Key 10 with 3-6-8 boxed underneath. Total Cost $41.40.

Race 2: Starter Allowance $8,000--- 3 YO & Up--- 1 1/2 Miles--- Purse $47,000.

My choice to win will be 3)Kela Brew(6-1), though I will not be betting him to WP but instead take a shot at the exotics. He contested the pace in his 2nd start back before putting the other pace setters away and winning while clear. Then his last start and his 1st at OP, he tried to sit behind the early speed on a good track and tried to run past them, but the pace was much too slow for anyone to have a legit shot at running down the front runners, but he did not give up trying. The two favorites ran 1-2.
The 4)Bigshot Laceshot(8-1) beat my top choice in their last race on a good track but I believe he will have a harder time in this race to get by him. But since I know his trainer, Larry Frazee, is a decent trainer and will pop one when overlooked, I will include him in my exacta box.

5)The Rouge Diesel(20-1) will be my choice to complete my trifecta box. While he does not look like he is currently in form, he did win OP longest race last year at 1 3/4 mile in an $8000 starter allowance, the same conditions as this race. The trainer and jockey are teaming up again at OP for the first time since that win. Could surprise but I personally thinks he needs one more start before springing a surprise, but I also think he is primed for his best showing this year.

I will use the 7)Dynabeaver(12-1) in my super box. He ran 3rd against The Rouge Diesel in that 1 3/4 mile test last year, beaten 12+ lengths, but he bobbled at the start and then was too close to the pace for his normal late kick. However, his last start indicates to me he is returning to form.

My Bets for race 2: $5 Ex Box 3-4($10 Total), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6 Total), .50 Super Box 3-4-5-7($12 Total), .50 Super Key 3 with the 4-5-7 boxed underneath($3 Total). Total Bets on race $31.

RACE 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to win is 10)Royal Mesa(7-2). He has two career starts, the first in a 6 furlong sprint where he was left with too much to do against those horses and his 2nd start, at 1 1/16 mile, where he closed with a rush to finish 2nd. Two good works and a maintenance breeze since makes me think he will give another good effort. His sire, Sky Mesa, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Hopeful S at Saratoga in his second career start and the G2 Breeders' Futurity in his 3rd career start at Keeneland. Royal Mesa's broodmare sire, Political Force, won the G1 Suburban H at Belmont Park for his only graded stakes win but he also ran 2nd in the Met Mile, also at Belmont. He finished 3rd in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in his career finale, beaten by Curlin, after being bothered in the early stretch run.

I will use the 7)Twobirdsonestone(10-1) in my exacta box. He has five career starts, all sprints, and has shown very little. But his bloodlines suggests he will improve as the distances gets longer, so basically the trainer has decided he needs more ground(go figure) to give it his best chance. Flavien Prat picks up the mount, which is a major upgrade from the ones who has ridden him thus far. His sire, Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont S, spoiling Smarty Jones TC bid and then won the G1 Travers S. Twobirdsonestone's broodmare sire, Pure Prize, won the G2 Ky Cup Classic at 1 1/8 miles in his career finale and never won any race at under a mile, including his maiden race. He was a son of one of Ogden Phipps prized fillies, which there were quite a few and he was bred and owned by Phipps.

The 4)Revenio(10-1) will be the one I use for my trifecta box. He has made one career start and was checked at the top of the stretch, losing all momentum, per equibase charts. That start came in the same race as my top choice, so he merits another opportunity to me, because he should be closer to the pace(if his bloodlines comes out in him) after gaining a little experience and making it less likely he will encounter trouble. Both sire and broodmare sire was speedy, to say the least. Could Upset.

9)Cowboy Diplomacy(3-1) will complete my super box, though I believe he will eventually be better at sprinting compared to middle distance racing. While his sire, Tapizar, was good in middle distances, his broodmare sire, Henny Hughes, was loads better while sprinting.

My Bets for race 3: $5 Ex Box 7-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-9-10(2.40), $1 Super Key 10 with 4-7-9 boxed underneath($6). Total Bets $24.40.

RACE 4: O/C $62,500--- 3 YOs Which Have Not Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races Or Claiming Price $62,000--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $101,000.

My Choice to WP will be the 1) Mr Midtown(15-1). He won his 3rd start back in a $50,000 Mdn Claiming race, then was raise in class against competition that proved too tough for him this early in his career. Now he drops a notch and he should break better against these which will improve his chance to upset. While his trainer has done very little at this meet this year, he popped several longshots at OP last year.

6) All Bizness(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He beat my top choice in their last race, but he did it with a late kick after the winner tired the other speed out. His trainer, William Fires, is a long time competitor at OP and trained Archarcharch to win the Arkansas Derby.

7)Last Judgement(3-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His trainer is Todd Pletcher and jockey is John Velazquez. He has some decent works and some bloodlines in his dam family that makes me think he will fire his best shot.

3)Nacogdoches(8-1) was originally my top choice but after taking another look, I feel him, Half Ours To Keep and Dessman will hook up early, setting this race up for a late charge. Both his sire, Super Saver and his broodmare sire, Lion Heart, were better when they could get the early lead and relax in the middle stages of the race.

My Bets: $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-6, $1 Tri Box 1-6-7, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-7, .50 Super Key the 6 on top and box the 1-3-7 underneath(slight adjustment in my key super because I like both about the same). Total Bets $41.40.

RACE 5: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP is 7)Honoring Major(6-1). He is the only one in this field who has a 6 furlong work since his last and it is actually a solid work for OP workouts. His owner, AJ Foyt Jr, is a former race car driver but has owned some good horses through the years. His trainer, William Fires, also trains the 6)All Bizness for AJ Foyt Jr in the previous race. But in this race, he is putting his son-in-law on the horse, and he was also the regular rider of Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch. Personally will not bet against this one.

5)High Sheriff(12-1) will be the one I use to complete my exacta box. He looks like he is beginning to figure out what racing is all about and he has bloodlines to compete against the best when he does. His trainer, D Wayne Lukas, like winning races on racing's biggest day and his works since his last indicates Lukas is up to his old tricks. I look for him to drift up in odds from his morning line and is, IMO, a value play.

4)Rotation(5-2) completed against winners in his last on a speed favoring Sunland Park and will appreciate the shift to OP surface, where late runners at least have a decent shot. The Riley Allison Derby has on occasion produced some solid runners. Also has good works since that effort. Expect another solid effort.

I am going to throw the 1) Tiz A Secret into my super box. He has a pedigree that should like this distance a lot better than the 5 furlong sprint he is coming out of.

My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta box 5-7, $1 Tri Box 4-5-7, $.50 Super Box 1-4-5-7, $1 Super Key 7 with 1-4-5 boxed underneath. Total Cost $54)

RACE 6: O/P $50,000--- 4 YOs & Up Which Have Not Won 2 Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Have Never Won 3 Races Or Claiming Price $50,000--- 1 Mile--- Purse $97,000.

I am going to pass on betting this race because I really do not like anyone who I am willing to risk money on.

RACE 7: The Azeri S(G2)--- 4 YOs & Up Fillies---- 1 1/16 Mile--- Purse $350,000.

I like the 1) Tapa Tapa Tapa(10-1) to WP. She is the only real front running speed in the race but whoever tries to go early with her will likely pay late in the race. I feel the big three will be more concerned about each other and could let her slip away. She has already beaten Elate when allowed to cruise.

2)Midnight Bisou(6-5) will be my choice for second. I believe she will be the closest pursuer that has a chance to stay close enough early.

4)Eskimo Kisses(5-1) will be the one to complete my tri box. I think she will be closer to her top race than Elate.

5) Elate(8-5) will be my fourth choice simply because I do not like the other two at all against these.

My Bet $10 WP 1, $5 Exacta Box 1-2, $1 Tri Box 1-2-4. $5 Super Key 1 With 2-4 With 2-4 With 5. Total Bets $46.

RACE 8: Rebel S(G2)--- First Division--- 3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000.

9)Improbable(3-5) looks unbeatable in this spot. His 3rd dam, Turkish Tryst, is also the dam of Hard Spun, 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby. However, I am not convince he wants to go this far without a track that helps him out a lot. So while I will use him in my trifecta box, I believe I will try to beat him. Equibase charts notes he pulled early in his last race, indicating he was fighting the jockey who was trying to get him to rate. He beat those on a heavy speed favoring track, but what will he do when the track does not give him as much help?

The one I like is 4) Easy Shot(15-1). His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, likes for his horse to lay off the pace and finish strong. And there is plenty of speed to keep the heavy favorite busy. The only reason I am willing to use the favorite in here is because this is the lighter division of the two races.

I am going to pull a shocker and use 7)Classy John(15-1) in my exacta box. Yes, his sire was speedy but he did wire the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2001 beating none other than City Zip before finishing 5th in the G1 Florida Derby when he was wide throughout and could not get near the rail, beaten by that year's Ky Derby winner, Monarchos, but also had to let City Zip show the way until he went around him turning for home.

Since I am wasting money, might as well throw the 6)Ninth Street(50-1) in my super box too. He looks like he might be willing to run a little late and his jockey is known more for moving a horse late much better than getting one on the lead. His only two terrible races so far has been when his jockeys pushed him early, which he clearly does not want. Santana picks up the mount and Asmussen decided to remove the blinkers.

My Bets: $10 WP 7, $5 Exacta Box 4-7, $1 Tri Box 4-7-9, .10 Super box 4-6-7-9, $.50 Super Key 7 With 4-6-9 boxed underneath. Total Bets $41.40.

Race 9: Essex H--- 4 YOs & Up---- 1 1/16 Mile--- $350,000.

I like the 2)Hence(9-2) to WP. He won his fourth start back and now looks like he is beginning to peak again. Or he may have been in shape the whole time but could not beat the horses he was facing in a couple of them. Either way, he is my choice.

9)Rated R Superstar(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Not a big fan of his but with the jockey switch and a trainer who usually flies under the radar, why not?

7)Snapper Sinclair(9-2) will be the one I use to complete my trifecta box.

3)Sonneteer(5-1) looks most likely to crash my exacta and trifecta bets, but I do not like him enough to put him any higher than my super.

My Bets: $10 WP 2, $5 Ex Box 2-9, $1 Tri Box 2-7-9, $.10 Super Box 2-3-7-9, $1 Super Key 2 With 3-7-9 Boxed underneath. Total Bets: $44.40.

RACE 10: Rebel S(G2) 2nd Division---3 YOs--- 1 1/16 Miles--- Purse $750,000.

My Choice To WP is the 4)Jersey Agenda(15-1). He is getting a major jockey switch from Santana to Jose Ortiz, a much better jockey in getting a horse out of the gate. He has at least four top running and/or producing fillies showing in his five generation pedigree.

5)Game Winner(4-5) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Rosario has ridden him in 3 of 4 starts and Baffert will usually not replace a jockey until he loses on a horse or he thinks the horse was given a bad ride. I would have been concerned if I saw anyone else(in this case) abroad.

8)Gunmetal Gary(10-1) is my choice to complete my trifecta box. He has the bloodlines to win at 1 1/4 miles more than this distance, but he could upset these if the pace gets too testy.

7)Our Braintrust(6-1) is my choice to complete the super box. His sire, Freud, is a full brother to Giant's Causeway. His broodmare sire, Trust N Luck, wired the G2 Fountain Of Youth S in 2003 before running second in the G1 Florida Derby, to eventual 2nd place Ky Derby finisher, Empire Maker. Look for him to hang around and if one or two others breaks a little slow, he could be long gone.

My Bets: $10 WP 4, $5 Exacta Box 4-5, $1 Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-8, $3 Super Key 5 With 4-7-8. Total Bets $56.40.

RACE 11: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs ---- 6 Furlongs ---- Purse $100,000.

My choice to WP is 3) Tut's Revenge(15-1). After a couple of tries at stretching out, the trainer decided to shorten him back up to 6 furlongs. He decided to add blinkers, most likely to help the horse to focus and stop looking around. In both stretch out, he drew poorly and now moves near the rail.

8)Nifty(3-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta box. He has ran solidly in both his starts and should find these a little easier.

10)Firecrow(7-2) is the most likely of the first time starters to get the lead, if he breaks alertly and could wire. But that is the question?

9)Youvesaiditall(8-1) will be my choice to complete the super. Another first time starter, but one who should not need the lead to perform his best, if he runs to his bloodlines he could upset these.

My Bets: $10 WP 3, $5 Exacta Box 3-8, $1 Tri Box 3-8-10, $.10 Super Box 3-8-9-10, $1 Super Key 3 With 8-9-10 boxed underneath. Total Cost $44.40.
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My Whirlwind Two Weeks!

About two months ago, I decided to stop posting my picks because I was in middle of a slump(for me). I had somehow lost the focus needed and it was showing in my bets. I decided to find my old notes on each of the angles that I had posted on this subreddit and after going thru several of them, I noticed where I had gotten off track. I knew each of the angles worked like a dream if applied correctly, so I also knew it was something I was not doing correctly that was the problem. I spent several years in the late 1980's charting thousands of races and made a separate chart on each of the angles. This is why I have suggested over and over that each one of you should do your own charting and see if each angle would work for you. For those of you who did, congrats, you should be getting close to reaping the benefits. For those who did not or refused, it is your loss.
In the last two weeks since resuming betting I have cashed for $11,883.15 in winning tickets: Here are a few of my bigger hits and the angle(s) I used to hit them.

11/24/2018, 03:58 PM, 106684217
Del Mar7 , $5.00 , EX , 1,11 $10.00 Graded Paid $1564.50 This was the 7th race this past Sunday which was the Seabiscuit H. I originally thought 1)Caribou Club was going to win this race, but I also liked 11)Secretary At War a lot because I thought he was the one they would have to run down. The reason I liked Caribou Club was he was a son of City Zip and everyone should know I like his foals sprinting on dirt and up to a mile on grass. But since his broodmare sire was Broken Vow(a son of Unbridled out of a daughter of English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky II), I knew he would handled the 1 1/16 distance. He was also making fourth start since his last winning effort. While each starts was fairly decent, he had already proven that they were not his best race. His trainer Proctor had given him 8 works since his last start, but when the horse worked 100 handily two weeks before the race, he knew his horse was ready. The last two works were simply to keep him sharp. It worked! Secretary At War is a son of War Front and while War Front never tried turf during his racing career, his foals have suggested maybe they should have. He was ultra speedy sprinter on dirt, but his foals have shown that same speed on grass and is almost impossible to run down at a mile or under. However, my only concern with him was could he last for a 1 1/16 mile? Now if you look at his past performance, he had won his third race back in an O/C 62,500. His next start was the G2 John Henry H at 1 1/4 mile on grass, a distance that was much too long for his bloodlines and he ran like it. Dropped back to a mile on grass in the Lure S in his next start against Kenjisstorm, he sat behind dueling speed horses until the stretch and angled out to try to make a run. Equibase notes says he could not quite summon the needed late kick and was beaten 2 1/4 lengths while finishing sixth. Baltas work him after that race in 59 2/5 for 5 Furlongs, indicating he planned to send the horse out front. While I had originally planned on betting Caribou Club to WP, I switched my WP bets to Secretary At War when he drifted up past 50-1. Off at 72-1, I ended up making a couple of hundreds extra by doing the switch as he paid 47.40 to place.

11/24/2018, 03:58 PM, 106684207 Del Mar 5 , $0.50 , PK5 , 3,8/ 6,8/ 1,11/ 5,10/ 1,6. Graded Lost $16.00. I also bet a P5 on the same day and hit 4 of 5. The only race I missed was the second race in the sequence, where you got it. A grandson of City Zip punched me in the gut for not believing he could go a mile on dirt and I paid dearly as I missed over a $4,600 P5 on a 50 cent bet. I could see myself using 8) Sheer Flattery as she was in form but for the life of me, I have no idea how I ended up including Bellerin, who was making her 2nd start after a 7 month layoff. Yes she was working good and bred good, but neither makes up for conditioning, something she had not proven she had regained yet. All I can say is my bad, I should have focused a little better!

11/24/2018, 12:38 PM, 106661694 Churchill Downs 9 , $10.00 , WP , 6 $20.00 Graded Paid $347.00. This was the G2 Golden Rod S. I bet the 6)Loira who was coming off her maiden win which she won by 9 lengths. But the track was sloppy and since her sire was Candy Ride out of a Giant's Causeway daughter, I knew she would take to the conditions. Also her trainer, Wayne Catalano, is known for his work with fillies especially. He used to train Dreaming Of Anna, who won the BC Juvenile Fillies on her way to Champion 2 YO Filly in 2006. At 27-1, she had odds I could not pass up, with all these factors in her favor, along with her works since her maiden win. She beat the 3-5 favorite by a nose.

11/22/2018, 10:14 AM, 106550680 Churchill Downs 12 , $2.00 , EX , 1,2,12/ 9 $6.00 Graded Paid $373.80

11/22/2018, 10:13 AM, 106550670 Churchill Downs 12 , $5.00 , EX , 1,9 $10.00 Graded Paid $929.50
Here's a good one. This was a maiden special weight that was taken off the grass and ran on dirt at 1 mile. The 1) Celia's Song had improved in every race she had ran with the exception of her only start at Saratoga where Equibase charts notes says she fell to her face at the start, was rushed up and faded. This is to be expected of almost any horse who wants the early lead and that race was a toss, if there ever was one. Her sire is Distorted Humor and his foals usually likes any track that has moisture in it or grass, usually their best at a mile. Add in her broodmare sire, Unbridled's Song , and with any type of conditioning, she should run away. Off at 2-1, she did just that. But why would I even considered a horse that did not pick up her feet in her first start. Several reasons. First and foremost was her owner, Shadwell Stables, which is better known as Godolphin America! And he actually brought her out of Keeneland's Nov Sale for $210,000 while she was still a weanling. Second, she drew the 1 hole in her first start and that is the worst post a first time starter to start from. She broke slowly and simply had no shot. But she had a decent work since that race. Mostly though, I love her bloodlines. Her sire was Animal Kingdom, who I would have preferred more if she was running on grass. However her 2nd dam, Precious Kitten is a 1/2 sister to Kitten's Joy and while not quite as good on the race track as her famous 1/2 brother, she still made 1.9 million in a 26 start career.

11/22/2018, 10:09 AM, 106550628 Churchill Downs 8 , $10.00 , WP , 9 $20.00 Graded Paid $723.00. Earlier that same day, in another maiden special weight, I saw a horse that I thought would win early in her career. 9)Free Cover was listed at 15-1 when betting open and I thought it was a fair price. But she kept drifting up in odds and ended up getting off at 54-1. Her sire was Congrats, a full brother to Flatter. Both these colts are known for their foals running solid early in their careers, especially at 6 furlongs. Then I saw her trainer was William Brett Calhoun and she was posting fairly quick works, I knew she was the one I was betting to WP. I put her with the 11) Ulele, who was the 6-5 favorite. But she ran a dull race and could not make up any ground in the stretch in finishing third.

11/17/2018, 12:07 PM, 106326941 Fair Grounds 1 , $0.50 , PK3 , 2,7/ 4,5,7/ 6,10 $6.00 Graded Paid $2457.30. This was the first 3 races on opening Saturday at the FG. 1st Race: The winner, 7) Papa's Boy got off at 14-1. I had a couple of reasons for liking him. He was making the 4th start of his career, but his only bad effort was a race that was taken off the grass and moved to dirt. His sire, G.W's. Skippie, was a horse I hit several times during his career. His sire was Skip Away and while he never tried the grass, his sire line actually loved the grass. But Papa's Boy's 2nd dam was Sarah Lane Oates, a grass specialist in Louisiana who banked $888,000 in her career the hard way, by winning stakes races that did not offer big purses. Also, her trainer, Nick Leggio is a son of Andrew Leggio, Jr, a trainer that was very popular in La. and he trained Sarah Lane Oates. Had to include.

2nd Race: The winner, Greeley's Banker, was sent off at 19-1 in yet another maiden special weight. His sire, Greeley's Galaxy, won the Illinois Derby by 9+ lengths in his 4th lifetime start. But he broke his maiden at SA in his 2nd start running splits of 21 3/5, 44 3/5 and 110 1/5 at six furlongs. All Mr Greeley's foals tend to be quick early but most cannot stretch that speed past 6 1/2 furlongs. Greeley's Banker's broodmare sire, Banker's Gold, won the Peter Pan S in his 4th lifetime start. But in his 1st start at GP, he ran splits of 21 4/5, 44 flat, 110 flat for six furlongs. Greeley's Banker was making his 2nd lifetime start. After throwing three above average works, he was entered in a 5F sprint at Delta Downs where he broke near the back and moved up throughout to finish fifth. Not many win at DD in these short races unless they can get near the lead. Entered 15 days later with no additional works, he broke much better, sat just off the lead, shot to the front turning for home and was able to hold off the two favorites, both first time starters and both after slow breaks.

3rd Race: The winner War Bond got off at odds of 8-1. His sire was War Front and if you want to know what I think about him, check above. However, this horse was claimed for 32000 four race back out of an O/C at Saratoga. His new owners handed him over to Cannizzo for two starts and after two less than inspiring races, shipped him to La. and turned him over to Ron Faucheux, a 26 % lifetime trainer. He qualified on two of the angles I have mentioned. 1) it was his fourth start since his last winning effort, and he had ran an improved race in his last. 2) He showed speed to the top of the stretch before fading steadily.

11/17/2018, 12:07 PM, 106326942 Fair Grounds 1 , $0.50 , PK4 , 2,7/ 4,5,7/ 6/ 8,11 $6.00 Graded
11/17/2018, 12:15 PM, 106327293 Fair Grounds 2 , $0.50 , PK3 , 4,5,7/ 6,11/ 8,11 $6.00 Graded

I also bet a P3 starting in the second race and a P4 starting in the first race and missed both with the same horses. However, the 8)Boston Repo is the one I thought would win. He was trained by Ron Faucheux and had some decent works. And just like I had figure, he shot out of the gate and set the early pace. Turning for home, he looked poise to win, then his greenness showed up. He tried to veer out and then in, causing the jockey to take a hold. By the time, he gathered himself, the two that beat him had gone by in full stride. While he could not make up any of the ground he lost on the two new leaders, he did pull away from the others. Oh well, can't win them all.

11/16/2018, 06:40 AM, 106261645 Fair Grounds 7 , $3.00 , EX , 5,12 $6.00 Graded Paid $1033.50

11/16/2018, 06:40 AM, 106261647 Fair Grounds 7 , $1.00 , EX , 5,12 $2.00 Graded Paid $344.50
I had originally planned on betting a $5 exacta box on these two, but after I sent in my bets, I realized I had that I pushed $3. So I added another $1 box. This was the only race I bet on opening Friday at the FG. The winner, 5)In The Navy got off at 6-1 and to me looked like the likely winner. Two starts back, he won his 1st stakes race at 1 1/16 mile on grass, though it was restricted to La-Breds at Louisiana Downs. Then he was shorten up to 7 1/2 furlongs on grass, and ran an even race, though it was for open breds. Entered back at 1 mile on grass in another stakes attempt and a couple of decent works, he looked the best. The horse who ran 2nd, 12)Grand Appointment, got sent off at 35-1 and was winless in 8 starts this year, with one 2nd in his first start(with no long break). However, most of the races he was entered in were La Bred stakes races and he had the class edge. His problem this year has been the jockey or him left him with too much to do and in every race, he was making up ground late but only running mid pack in most of his races. However, the FG grass course is notorious for being deep and closers have a better than average chance of winning. So, I decided why not? If I am not willing to risk $28 after the races I have hit in the last three weeks, I should never expect to win anything. BTW, his trainer wins at a 19% lifetime clip and is another who is popular in La.

I am not posting this to brag about my winnings, but instead to show others you can make money in this game. But it takes patience, a positive attitude, finding angles that work for you, be willing to takes educated risks, and research. I did not get to the point I am by having a lackluster attitude or by thinking I would improve over time. I went out and read books, talked to and got to know a few trainers, most of whom are now deceased and everything else imaginable. And I did not achieved the success I found overnight. Actually, it took me a dozen years to realize I was on the right path. And you can get on the right path or keep blaming others for your failures.
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Newcomers-- Where Do You Start?-- A Beginner's Guide

This post is to help newcomers get a better feel of the game and give them ideas of where to start. When I was new, I was in the same boat and ask many questions from other handicappers. Using that information helped me get better quicker but it also led me down many roads of confusion. What works for many handicappers may not work for the next. Everyone processes information differently and can look at the same situation, but come up with very different answers. And that is the beauty of playing the horses. Horse racing has a way of leveling the playing fields whether you are college educated or a high school dropout. This was especially true before the addition of exotic wagering, but the only way exotic wagering helps someone with a college education more, is they usually have more money to "waste" and can spread more, increasing their chances of winning(much like the Powerball & Mega Millions games).
First of all, you must be willing to learn. Horse racing is a tough game to crack fairly consistent and you will have many more losing days than winning days. I am not talking about hitting a race or two, but rather you will leave the races on most days with less money than you took in. I have seen a lot of handicappers that say they are interested in betting, but put little effort into what it takes to make them better. I guess they decide to rely on luck like the lotteries or others help, but that is the best way to lose(by not being prepared) and you will struggle for years going this route.
There are many different ways to come up with winners and exotic bets such as betting the best jockeys, trainers, owners, speed figures, breeding, favorite post position number, horse's name, but there is only one way to truly understand and learn the game. That is with the daily racing form or a knockoff like equibase, track masters and several others. They all provide basically the same information, but some are more clutter than others and gives stats that will not be very useful. That is why I personally prefer the daily racing form. They give you a ton of information but also seems to realize when the stats goes too far and will not really help anyone. There are tutorials on the internet that explains what each symbol, number, stat and call means and these are free to everyone. (http://www1.drf.com/help/help_howto.html). There is a wealth of information on this site including a tutorial where they show one horse past performance(exactly the way you see each horse in the form) and you can click on any symbol, number, etc and it will explain in detail what these means. They do ask you to sign up(like most web sites) but it is not to charge you anything but to add you to their email list where they will send you products they have for sale that you may be interested in, especially on big racing days. There is never no obligation to buy, simply a website trying to make money in products they believe in. If you don't want the product, simply trash it or ignore it. You won't be charged unless you agreed to purchase it(and then only after you give them your CC # or other method of payment). I look at it this way. They have so much knowledge that can benefit you for free, so why not take advantage of it?
Next, after you learn the basic of how to read the daily racing form, you will need to decide which track(s) you are interested in learning about. I used to recommend a local track because information used to be easier to obtain from the track closest to you. But since the rise of the internet, you can obtain equal information of any track you choose. You are going to want to learn everything you can about one track at a time. Who are the leading trainers? Jockeys? Type of races each perform best in? Track conditions? Track Bias? Trying to learn many different tracks at once is the easiest way to become lost while handicapping, especially when you are first starting out. I still have trouble remembering how each track is set up and I have been handicapping weekly for more than 40 years. And you will have to recheck each track every year or two, because tracks will resurface their dirt tracks every few years and it can change the way the track plays.
Bias? This is often one of the most overused and misunderstood piece of information on the market today. A lot of handicappers thinks horses that wins from the same post race after race is a definite bias. While it can be, it is more often the results of a racing secretary being a good handicapper and placing horses he thinks will win in the same post. Only a few of the top races post positions are actually drawn, the rest are assigned to their post position by each racing secretary at the track where he writes the conditions of every race, also. You can find this information in every track's program(for sale the day before any racing day at that track), and is usually located in the front of the program in small print(how many actually reads this).
Most bias will be short lived, consisting of a few weeks and/or months. Some are easy to identify but others are very difficult to see. And most bias will not prevent a horse from winning, but it will make it more difficult for the best horse to win. He has to be much the best and then the trainer runs a risk of knocking a good horse off form. It is easier to get a horse into shape to perform his best than it is to maintain that fitness through a series of hard fought wins.
Off tracks is the most common condition where a temporary bias will show up. Almost all sloppy tracks will favor speed and becomes more profound if the speed horse can get near the rail. This was true last week at Pimlico but I missed a $6000 super because I ignored the speed that was going to have the rail because I thought two just to her outside would grabbed the early lead and get the rail. The horse I thought would show the way steadied at the start when another came over into her path and ended up last early. She moved away from the rail to start her rally because the rail was clogged and made up ground on everyone but the winner who was long gone while enjoying the best part of the track. The only three horses I bet ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th(2nd & 3rd in the exacta, also). The heavy favorite in this race was stuck outside throughout and never picked up her feet.
I was reading all day Saturday how the outside was the place to be, but in actuality, the inside was really the place to be. Sure a couple of horses won while off the rail but only one instance did the horse actually overcome the bias. The others simply were the best horse entered in their races and there were no speed that was in shape enough to upset. When the Preakness rolled around, it had stop raining and trainers and/or jockeys decided the middle of the track would be faster than the rail, something I mentioned in another post. But then again no one tried the rail in that race, so it could have still been better to be there.
While everyone has a different opinion of what bias appears, misjudging or ignoring a true bias will turn your betting into long days or weeks of losing. Until you can actually identify a bias, it is better to save your money for another day. It will save you a ton of money and the track you learn on will almost always revert back to its old self as long as the surface is not replaced. Then it is like starting over, but with more knowledge to help you obtain positive results quicker.
Trainers? I have always suggested that trainers hold the key to the outcome of almost every race. There are a few that are masters in planning and setting their horses up for winning races. These trainers will win between 20-30% of the time on a fairly consistent basis. But that means they will still lose 3 out of 4 races they enter a horse. And the main reason their win percentages are this high is because owners see how they handle their horses and they want to win the big races as much as anyone, so they will usually get their pick of horses they think might excel on the track.
Whichever track I am betting, I want to learn as much as possible about every trainer that wins 10% of his races or more, especially if his horses runs in the money(1st,2nd, 3rd) a lot(around 40% or more). This indicates a trainer knows exactly what he is doing and usually has his horses ready to win but someone entered is just slightly better that day. You will cash a lot of tickets that will pay solid and can make your weekend or even month simply by nailing a couple of exactas.
Jockeys is another good angle to learn about. The top jockeys earned their reputation simply by winning races. But often it is more the jockey's agents that secures these mounts for the jockeys by hustling every trainer that they can find with a good horse. The top jockeys, like trainers, wins on between 20-30% of their mounts, but they make just as many mistakes as a lesser known jockey. Where a top jockey can rectify his mistake a few races later, a lesser known jockey may have to wait days or even weeks to get his chance. If an average jockey wins with 12% of his mounts or more and has a decent in the money percentage(1st, 2nd, 3rd), you can catch him many times when he is overlooked and score big.
Track conditions, turns and surfaces are probably the most important part of betting thoroughbreds. The turns at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans has the sharpest turns I have ever seen and I have been to almost all U.S. tracks at least once. They also have the second longest stretch in the U.S, behind only Belmont Park in New York. Knowing each track set-up can help immensely in determining winners. Track conditions are very important. Tracks that are fast will play different than when that same track is sloppy or muddy. While most off tracks will favor front runners and the inside, you will only know for sure by looking at replays and/or the trackman's comments on result charts. Santa Anita has always favored speed on fast tracks but it is a mistake to throw out late runners when the track is off.
And when horses switches surfaces, handicappers tends to bet horse that did well on the surface he is switching from. A few will transform that ability successfully, but most horses that struggles on one surface will come alive on the other(that is, if the trainer can get him ready). Until the late 1980's, all U.S. horses were required to break their maiden on dirt and would not be allowed to entered any grass races until then. But as grass racing popularity grew, tracks were forced to change that rule. Horses that was taking 10-15 races to break their maiden on dirt was often finding instant success when switched to grass.
And, BTW, when I first started, the daily racing form gave you two numbers after each horses race that were considered speed figures and track variant(how slow or fast the track was that day) such as 88-12. This indicates the horse ran 2 2/5(or 12/5, 100-12) off the track record and the track variant(12) is the average all winning horses ran off the track record on that day. Daily racing forms still list these two numbers, but all knockoff forms have replaced them with Beyers or their own figures. I don't know which one is more accurate, but I do know using the daily racing forms figures has pointed to a lot more winners, for me personally. Beyers and Equibase numbers only points me to the favorite, but I can look at the form and decide for myself who will be the favorite 99% of the time.
While this post will not help you become instant winners, it can be a huge help in knowing where to start. But your own research and the ability to learn and interpret correctly will be the reason you can turn into a successful handicapper or if you fail to get better. Since there are so many components in every race, it will take years and many hours of research to make you successful. Is it worth the effort? IMO, absolutely. Nowhere else will you find an opportunity to make thousands in a few hours of hard work using your own opinions and not relying on luck to secure your future than horse racing betting( or ownership, but that is a totally different avenue and takes deep pockets to succeed).
Also, for results and entries, I use Equibase and have for many years for free, though I have never signed up. If you go to www.equibase.com website, you will see tabs across the top of the page. Hover over results and it will drop down two tabs(summary results and full chart results). Always click on summary results, as these are free for thirty days, and you will also find them much more useful than full charts results which there is a fee that can escalate quickly. If you want to find out which horses or tracks are running in the next few days, the entries tab is next to the results tab on the front page of Equibase. Simply click on entries and it will drop down a screen that shows every thoroughbred track and the dates they are scheduled to run. Scroll down and find the track you are interested in, they hover over and click the date you are interested in. It will give you the entries for every race at that track that day in post position order.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Angles I Use! Like It Or Not, It's The System That Makes Me Steady Money.

1) Fourth Race Back After A Six Month Or Longer Break Or After Going Off Form. You will see a few horses win in their first start back after a long break, but the trainer has prepared the horse with a lot of works, either on track or on their private training track(which they do not have to report to any racing jurisdiction). All track requires all horses to have a race or a recorded workout within three months before they are allowed to run. Then you will see a few more horses win in their second start back after a six month break, but this indicates the trainer did all he could think would help to get the horse fit before racing, but the horse still needed a start. Same with their third start back, but maybe with a few lighter works. But their fourth start back after a six month or longer break, at least to me, is the best opportunity you will get to capitalize on a major score you will remember for years(and you will know it was not a guess but a well thought out plan). But I will emphasize that the trainer must at least give some indication that he knows a little about getting a horse to peak. 10% winning and 30% in the money(1,2,3) is the baseline I use. You will see many horses that looks like they are not improving after three starts and I would suggest waiting until they start showing some run before risking any money on them(I do when I am winning at the track, but not so much when I try to force them to run). But over 80% of them that wins or runs second in their fourth start back show some type of improvement in their third start back, but often not enough to get the masses to bet on them.
Horses that have tailed off after being in form for a few races are much harder to dictate, mostly because it is more difficult to decide when they are going off form, either immediately after winning or tough race and/or a gradual descend into going off form. After years of struggling to find a way to tell if they are going off form or simply had a bad race, I feel I have learn enough to sometimes give me a clue to which one they are indicating. But there is no set angle that would help you that is explainable, so I can only suggest that you will pick up little tidbits at a time by learning to read the running lines of each horse that would help you immensely. Watching how fast they are running or the pace is will not tell you anything as far as conditioning is concerned. Only running lines can give you that information. Time and class is important after you decide if the horse is in peak form but the best horse will only take your money if he is not in shape and/or going off form.
Also, most trainers realize when their horse is not in top form by the way they are acting and/or working. But a trainer makes the bulk of his disposable income by getting horses to win. The fees he charges an owner to train their horse is enough to support his family and make a decent living, but the extras from winning purses are what most seeks on a daily basis. Most of the top trainers knows what it will take to get their horse(s) back to top fitness but they also know it will take weeks or months of steady hard works and/or racing to move their charge back to top condition.
Horses that had less than a five or six month break will usually not need four starts back after a brief freshening to regain his top form. Horses given a 2-3 month break between races on paper are often taken from the track to give a freshening, but the trainer, especially if he knows what he is trying to accomplish, will still work the horse on a private training track(usually his own) and these works are not required to be reported to race tracks because they are not recognized as official workouts. Trainers, however, are required to have at least one published workout and/or race within a three month period(used to be a 2 month period and maybe still is required at some tracks) before a horse is allowed to run again. Stewards are required to scratch any horse that does not meet this criteria and will fine trainers, if they believe he is intentionally negligent or trying to be deceitful.
2) Third Race After A Winning Effort Angle: This angle came from reading a book but was also mentioned in several seminars held by public handicappers and sportswriters in the 1980's. The idea was to help bettors become better handicappers and give them an angle that worked over and over. This angle suggested that horses would win in every third start while they are in form. The theory was the winning race would take enough out of them that it took 2 starts to regain their form. And while this angle seemed to produce over and over, the winning horses started losing their value because the more that learned about this angle, the less value it offered. But since the seminars was phrased out mostly because of a few deceitful public handicappers, this angle returned to producing good to solid returns.
However, after I spent a couple of years charting this angle, I noticed there was more value in betting these types when the horse throws a bad race after winning, then runs an improved effort in his next start but finishing no better than third but no better than fourth is even more preferred. The odds are better because most will think the horse ran third or fourth because "someone had to run there". The opposite way, where the horse ran third or second after a winning effort, then throws a bad race is more likely an indication they have gone off form, from my research. Also, their odds will usually not be worth the value you should be seeking, if you want to win long term. Everybody has days where it best to stay away from the track because no matter what you do or believe in, your horse(s) will not perform up to your expectations. When a horse runs two poor races in his next 2 races after his winning effort, I will usually not consider him at all unless he is dropping below his winning level or took a steep step up(two or more classes) in class in those two starts. More likely, he has gone off form but when he has not, you can expect and will get box car odds. However, when he takes only a small step up in those two starts, then enters back in his winning class level in his third start back, I will make this type beat me. The reason is most trainers will not drop a horse back down if he feels he is still fit but even, if he does, the odds will be lower than what I want to risk money on.
Also when I first charted this angle, it stipulated a horse had to win his third start back. But after watching several who ran a 2nd or 3rd in his third start back and winning that 3rd start and paying humongous odds, I decided to start considering these types of horses with this angle, though I have never seen it written or even implied it might be effective. And this is where I get many longshot type winners because most think his close 2nd or 3rd is the best he could do while in form, so what should be different today. Actually, the horse actually ran his best race in most occasions, but he was simply beaten that day. And he too could need 2 races to get back to his top fitness level. The whole idea of this angle is betting a horse while he is in form, but a hard race will usually take enough conditioning out of most horses that it takes two races to regain his top level of fitness(and even more if he is knocked off form or better known as tired and sluggish).
3) Third In Last Start When Beaten By 2 Lengths Or More By The Winner And Second Place Finishers. This angle was returning boxcar winners and place horses in their next start at GP in 2018. And I have not focused enough on GP this year to determine if this angle is still producing there. Most bettors in the know will consider this type of horse in their next start if the horse is beaten less than 4 lengths when third, but almost none will consider this type if he is beaten by more than 5 lengths. But I will and I do. Actually the best odds using this type of angles comes when the horse is beaten between 5-10 lengths by the winner, regardless of how far the 2nd place horse finishes behind the winner.
The whole idea behind this angle is the jockey may realize that the winner will be almost impossible to catch, so he will ease up on his horse to save a little punch(energy) for his next race. While he will attempt to make it look like he is trying, due to many bettors who complains he is not even trying to win(which he isn't), he has to make an attempt to make it look like a hard try or face possible disciplinary action from the stewards of that track. While I have some other information or rules that would be helpful to understand this angle more, I will not go there due to many who believes the internet is the best source to get their facts, though it is spotted with half truths and/or simply wrong information. I am not about arguing who is right or wrong, I simply am out to make the most money possible with the least amount risked.
4)Speed To The Top Of The Stretch Before Fading In The Stretch Run Angle: This is an angle that I have used with a lot of success thru the years. It simply means as a horse is starting to peak into his best condition, he will tend to hang around longer than any of his most recent races. When I first posted this angle, there were several handicappers on this sub-reddit that asked if it was better betting a horse that faded slightly or did a steady fade in the stretch run. Since I have used both on occasions(but not in the same race), I really did not have an answer at that time.
But when I was looking thru the angles that I had charted many years ago, I had written in my notes the type I preferred. As I have stated, I used both types, but the ones who did a steady fade after staying within two lengths of the lead until the top of the stretch is both more reliable and has higher odds in their next start. The reason a steady fade works better is simple. A jockey may realize his horse is finished trying for that day and will not persevere with trying to win that race, though he has to give a half-hearted effort or get blame for not trying to do his best(which he will be accused of regardless of effort given if horse is heavily bet). Horse that fades slightly are most often giving their maximum effort because the jockey still believes he can coax the horse into winning that day and will often take a little more condition out of that horse that will hurt the horse more than help it in its next start.
Also, I will not bet a horse back that has a clear lead until the top of the stretch and then fades slightly or steadily. This type of horse is most likely a quitter and will stop on his own on most occasions, with or without early pressure. But most horses will face some type of pressure at some point in the race. And when I have previously decided to use this type, I am often left wondering why I thought a horse who faced a little pressure and faded would do better when he is facing even more early pressure.
5)Trip Handicapping. This is an important angle to consider. While I first read about this angle in several of Beyers books, it was the first thing I realized about racing that could be important and I used from day one of my handicapping career. But seeing it in print only confirmed what I believe was often the difference between winning and losing in a lot of races. Noting when a horse has to check and then rebuild speed, get caught behind a wall of horses and having to ease up to wait for running room, horses losing a lot of ground by having to go wide to keep his momentum, bumping and getting squeezed out of the gate, even jockeys trying to time the break and causing the horse to break flat footed(to regain balance) are all part of trip handicapping and can be the difference from a solid race or a ho-hum effort. Jockeys making the wrong split second decision whether to stay inside or try to circle the field also has a major effect on the outcome of races and even top jockeys are prone to making a mistake.
And on the flip side, noticing when a horse got the perfect set up and won because he had a perfect trip(otherwise, he lets other do the hard work and picks up the pieces after the front runners tires) will give you opportunities to make a big score if you learn to recognize the situation. Horses rarely get two perfect type trips in a career, much less two races in a row
6) Bloodlines--- Bloodlines is probably the most mis-understood of all angles out there and that is because there is very few experts that had actually done any type of research, other than copy the sayings of a few earlier experts and passing them along. It requires more study than a five minute glance but for those willing to learn, it can make a world of difference to your bankroll.
For example, experts have always consider that Eclipse of 1764 was the original carrier of the large heart gene. Sure, he won all 18 of his lifetime starts, but the biggest field he faced in those 18 races were 4 other horses twice(most of his other races had one challenger or none). But they are wrong and here is why. As a sire, the original Eclipse never finished as the top sire in any year he stood, finishing no better than second to Herod and his son Highflyer. Every one of his top runners had the Herod or Matchem in their dam families and they were the two stallions that combined to form the large heart gene(Match 'Em grandson & Herod's grand daughter(thru Highflyer) formed one line and then Highflyer was bred to Matchem's daughter to produce another daughter that form another line that displayed the large heart gene). Even then, only two of Eclipse sons made a lasting impression on the breed but it was not because of him but rather whom their sons or grandsons were bred to a couple of generations later(Herod/Matchem cross).
From 1764 thru 1855, there were supposedly 22 horses that had the name of Eclipse when they first race but another name was added after their career began to help bettors separate one Eclipse from another. However, the Eclipse of 1855 held that name only throughout his racing career and stallion career. He won 5 of 9 starts on the race track but one of his son(Alarm) was responsible for the Domino sire line. This is also the Eclipse that a biopsy was performed on after his death and it was determined his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's heart. But this Eclipse's dam(Gaze) was inbred 5x5 to Penelope and Prunella(dam of Penelope) also showed up in her 5th generation. Penelope also showed up in the sire line of this Eclipse in the 5th generation, making it 4 crosses with a large heart gene carrier.
I am adding all of this above to hopefully make you realize that experts can be wrong also, especially if they did not do research for them shelves and only copy old material that is often not accurate. A computer is only as smart as the person who puts the info into it.
I use bloodlines several different ways. First, it helps me to determine which surface a horse will most likely prefer. If a sire made the bulk of his money(or even a better indicator is wins and in the money(1,2,3) on grass throughout his career and did little or nothing on dirt, then I will be reluctant to bet one of his foals until the trainer gets them on the right surface. Most horses will prefer one surface over another, though there are some who will run well on both. Even these types will tend to run slower on one surface over the other when you compare their style, pace and running times.
Then I will take a look at the sire's best distance during his racing career. This is not necessarily the longest distance or the shortest distance the sire won at, but the distance where I feel he runs his top race. I also look for the type of runner the sire was, whether that be front running speed, slightly off the pace, and one who liked to gather him self and make a late run. Some horses are naturally gifted at breaking on cue while others tend to break flat footed and takes a stride or two to get going. I'm sure most of you have seen or heard of a horse hitting the gate at the start. This occurs mostly in young horses, such as 2 YOs because the jockey will usually try to time the break to get a head start which is huge in short races, but not as important in mid distance races or longer. If he succeeds he looks like a genius but when he fails, it usually causes the horse all chance of winning. However, just because a sire won a graded stakes or several graded stakes in his career does not mean he will sire even one stake winner, much less dozens of them. But it does give you a clue as to what type of running style his foals will have. If he had blazing speed from the gate, then most likely his best foals will display similar speed. The top trainers normally takes a look at a sire's natural ability and try to copy that style with his foals.
Next, I take a look at the dam and if she has enough starts, then I follow the same procedure with her as I do the sire. I determine which surface the dam favor, her running style, and her best distance. If I feel she did not have enough starts to get a clear picture and/or she had a poor trainer, then I will use the broodmare sire(her sire) instead. While she too may not produce a foal that was as good as her or will compete in the same class she did, their running style and preferred surface will usually be similar unless the trainer teaches her foals a different method of running that he believes will make the foal a better runner. However, most trainers will not switch anything at all in the foals, in fear of making them less profitable for the owners and them too.
These are the six major angles that I look for on a consistent basis. I use every one of these angles to help me narrow down my choices the quickest way possible while pointing me to live horses that will lead me to huge payoffs. I am not interested in betting when payoffs are low because that will mean you are spinning your wheels and wasting time, just trying to stay even or making just enough money to get to try again the next day or week. When I bet, I strive for making enough money to cover all my bets for a couple of months, off one solid score. Anything more is simply added rewards that I put away and use on other things I enjoy. But I started out the same as most handicappers, betting a lot of low odds horses and seeing them get beat much more often than they were winning. I got tired of spending hard earned cash and having nothing to show for it. But I eventually got the message and I realized that I could go thru life trying the same old things that were not working well enough for me to succeed and hoping for a different outcome one day or I could do research and pick up new ideas that would make me a better handicapper. I chose the latter and while it was hard work and continues to be hard work, the rewards are much better this way than my old way of handicapping.
FYI, my 2 1/2 month weekly winning streak ended today. All week long, rain was predicted in New Orleans, so I decided to concentrate on Oaklawn Park yesterday(which I broke even for the day) but was 0-5 today at Gulfstream Park today, but missed an exacta by a neck(1st & 3rd) and a trifecta by 3/4 of a length(1st, 3rd & 4th with only 3 horses I had boxed) in the second race. A 9% winning trainer with Jose Ortiz on it ran 2nd). Bet the third place finisher to WP. Then in the seventh race, my picks ran second & third in the exacta but was beaten by the same horse that beat them in their last out in near wire to wire fashion. However, she was picking up 7 lbs off that win and the third place finisher was dropping 4 lbs, making it an 11 lb swing. So I thought these two would turn the tables on the winner, especially with Blamed running, but she decided to rate like she has been willing to do previously and shallowed the speed heading into the stretch to win easily. I bet the 44-1 lonshot to WP so I made some of my money back, just not enough. Oh well, I guess you can not have everything go your way.
But had I simply stayed at the track I normally bet, things would most likely turned out much better. No rain fell as predicted in New Orleans and the track had returned to fast and firmed. And just as FG had done two months prior, they started the card off with three longshots(this time 15-1+ winning) and the P3 paid 2 of 3 and the P4 paid off for 3 of 4 winners, though all were pickable using the angles I mentioned above(can not believe I did not even look until after the fact). But then again, I probably would have let the probability of rain affect my thinking and ended up with an even worse day.
The 16-1 winner of the first race ran 2nd in its third start back in N/W 2 allowance and had dropped into a $15,000 claiming for N/W of two lifetime in its last race on the grass but ran respectable, and was entered at the same level and surface today.
The 20-1 winner of the second race was running for the fourth time since its last big effort, a second while beaten by 9 lengths by a horse that was 1-10 that day. At first glance, his last race looks like he was not ready to win today, but upon a closer look, he was less than 2 lengths behind the pace setter until the far turn when encounter traffic problems and faded. Switching from a jockey who has struggled to Gabriel Saez, a winner of the Ky Oaks in 2008 and brother of Luis Saez, certainly did not hurt his chance. Actually, he jumped out front and never look back, pulling away from the 1-2 favorite in the stretch.
The 21-1 winner of the 3rd race was also ridden by Gabriel Saez, but he was a grandson of War Front, who I know is one of the top turf horses breeding today. His sire, Data Link, was a G1 grass winner at one mile at Keeneland and this race was a maiden special weight, a far cry from G1 competition. He also was making his 2nd lifetime start, the first a turf sprint where he broke slowly and could not make up any ground on a soft turf course at Keeneland(most can not, especially in a turf sprint).
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My Picks For Saratoga Friday August 24, 2018(Day Before Travers Day)

Saratoga is running an all New York Bred card this Friday, the day before the Travers card, including six stakes restricted to horses bred in New York. Most of the races look competitive, so I will post the ones I like. I will try to pick up a little moolah to play the next day's card, which is my favorite way to play the ponies.
1st Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs Bred In New York--- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf--- Purse $75,000.
5)Magical Tale(20-1) will be my choice to WP. His sire, Forty Tales, raced only on dirt but won a couple of G2 stakes while banking nearly $667,000. His sire, Tale Of The Cat, also raced only on dirt but at stud is known more for his high class grass runners, including multiple G1 winner Gio Ponti. Magical Tale's owner Patricia Generazio breeds most of her own horses, but he was a private purchase. She is best known as breeder and owner of grass sprint specialists Pure Sensation and Disco Partner, both earners of more than $1M on the track and still active. Magical Tale has made one start and did little, but it was a race moved from grass to dirt and ran on a sloppy track. Willing to give him another chance simply because of his owner's success on grass.
6)Qian B C(8-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. His sire, Desert Party, won 6 of 10 lifetime starts but he too never try grass. His sire, Street Cry, is known for siring runners that takes to grass or dirt. Qian B C's broodmare sire, Strategic Prince is a son of Dansili and he won the 6F G2 July S and 7F G2 Vintage S in England. He is making his first start but has works that suggest he could win, especially with a good break.
3)Pipes(4-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. Pipes also has started once, in the same race as my top pick on a sloppy race track. He broke slowly and then went wide to finish third in that race behind runaway wire to wire winner Dugout. His sire, Exchange Rate, is a son of Danzig and he won an allowance race on SA downhill turf course before running 3rd in the G2 Frank E Kilroe S at one mile on grass, also at SA. His broodmare sire is Ky Derby & Preakness winner Smarty Jones.
2nd Race: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up New York Breds--- Which Have Never Won One Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $77,000.
1A) It's Hot Out(8-1)will be my choice to WP. He has made 7 lifetime starts with 1 win and four seconds. In his last start on a sloppy track, he broke slowly and was eliminated from serious contention, but it would have taken a monstrous race to beat the winner, Stoney Bennett, regardless. His trainer, Chris Englehart, did not put another recorded work in him since his last start but you can be sure he has been working him on his private farm.
5)Candy Zip(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. In his second and most recent start this year, he contested a disputed pace and tired in the stretch while 2 late runners past him. I look for him to rate just off the early pace in here and he should be the one to run down again. Florent Geroux has a return call on this horse.
6)Samay(6-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. but there are several others in with a good shot. But I ended up on him simply because he won his first start good away and given almost 11 months break(likely due to shin problems which is common in young horses). But he has a series of good works for his first start on the year and looks to have the most upside.
3rd Race: Albany Stakes-- 3 YOs New York Breds--- 1 1/8 Miles--- Purse $250,000.
1)Evaluator(3-1) will be my choice to WP. He has made 4 starts this year and in his last finished a good second while getting to the winner late on a sloppy track. He has three works since which signals he is returning to his top form after a couple of less than inspiring starts. His trainer, Mike Dilger, has only been training for a few years but wins 16 % of his starts. Manuel Franco replaces John Velasquez as he opts to ride first call for Pletcher.
5)Spectacular Kid(8-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He is entering of a second in the New York Derby where he chased the only speed throughout. He is the stakes veteran of this field and his last work indicates he is sharp. His sire, Mission Impazible, was a multiple G2 stakes winning son of Unbridled's Song who chased the likes of Wise Dan, Hymn Book and Pool Play while finishing second in several G1 races.
I am going to use a maiden as my third choice to complete my tri box. 3)Bad Guy(20-1) is winless in 15 starts but has completed mostly at the bigger NY tracks , running second or third 9 times. I simply think Singapore Trader, Speke and Sea Foam(with added weight)are not very enticing to me personally and Analyze The Odds, while getting a weight break, looks like he is beginning a down cycle in form, especially if his work since his last is any indication which was extremely slow. But I have been fooled before, so if you like any of them, be my guest.
4th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs Fillies New York Bred--- 1 1/16 Miles Turf--- Purse $75,000.
10)Shady Shady Shady(5-2) is my pick to WP. She has made one lifetime start in a turf sprint and broke in mid pack, then came running late to secure second. However, she is stretching out in here and her bloodlines suggests she will be setting the pace or pressing off another's flank. Her sire, Hat Trick, is a solid producing son of Sunday Silence whose foals love grass. Her broodmare sire is 2007 Ky Derby winner Street Sense who became the first 2 YO champion to win that race since Spectacular Bid in 1979. Two works since suggests she will be ready.
1)Miss After School(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She also has made one start at 7 furlongs, but the race was moved to the main dirt track and shorten up to a distance that is too short for her bloodlines. Her sire, Point Of Entry, is the one of the best horse I have ever seen performed. Her broodmare sire Macho Uno, is a 1/2 brother to Awesome Again and while neither try the grass, they were bred to enjoy that surface.
4)Tiztinabella(12-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She is a first time starter but has the works and bloodlines to win. Her sire Tizway, was a G1 stakes winner on dirt but his broodmare sire Dayjur(son of Danzig)was champion 3 YO sprinter in England who was winning the G1 BC Sprint in his first start on dirt when he jumped track marks and broke stride in deep stretch, letting a longshot filly he had already put away come back and beat him by a nose. Tiztinabella's broodmare sire, Sky Mesa, is another who scored his best wins on dirt but as a sire his foals tends to favor grass. And her trainer, Phillip Gleaves, has won with enough longshots over the years but I always tend to miss the exacta when he brings one in.
5th Race: Funny Cide Stakes--- 2 YOs New York Bred--- 6 1/2 Furlongs--- Purse $200,000.
7)La Fuerza(5-2) will be my choice to WP but his probable odds will be lower than what I am willing to wager on. He has made two starts and in both he was much the best. The competition in here is probably slightly better but he should not have a problem as he tends to sit just off the pace and move when asked.
2)Dalliance(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. While he has only 1 win in six starts, all his starts have came against open breds and the competition is much deeper in these races than what my top choice has faced. Kevin Rice, a nephew of Linda Rice, trains and anytime you see any trainer whose last name is Rice, you should give their horse a second look. I do, always!
4)Bustin To Be Loved(9-2) is my choice to complete my tri box. There is plenty of want the lead speed horses in here, so I had to decide who is best equip to rate and I landed onthis one. While his sire, Bustin Stones, won all six of his starts without ever relinquishing the lead, his broodmare sire, Prime Timber, did his best running late, including a fast closing fourth in the 1999 Ky Derby.
6th Race: Allowance O/C $40,000--- 3 YOs & Up New York Breds--- N/W $13,000 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Claiming Price $40,000---- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf--- Purse $80,000.
11) Samadi Sky(8-1) will be my choice to WP. He is making his fifth start since his last win and has been in this set of condition race for a while. His last race was his first time sprinting on grass and while he made a run, chart states he hesitated at the 1/16 mile pole and that was enough to prevent a board finish. However, I think he will prove sprinting on grass is what he wanted to do all along. His broodmare sire, Abaginone, a son of ultra speedy Devil's Bag, is a 1/2 brother to the speedy Cara Rafaela, the dam of Bernardini and he won 7 of 10 starts, all sprints on dirt. But even his bloodlines suggested he would be even better on grass. Upset Special!
6)Frisky Magician(5-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He just missed winning in a photo finish in his last against this field after contesting two graded stakes sprinting on grass. His trainer, Jorge Abreu, is an up and coming trainer that had to build his barn up by hustling owners, unlike Chad Brown & Todd Pletcher, who got plenty of choices based off their previous employers reputation. He has already more than double his previous earnings this year in only his second full year of training and has started only 155 horses in his career.
1)Colonel Tom(6-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He has won 2 of 3 lifetime starts and his only loss was when he broke slowly. Now dropping in O/C company and shorten up in distance, he should be able to use the weight allowance to his advantage.
7th Race: Seeking The Ante Stakes---- 2 YO Fillies New York Bred---- 6 1/2 Furlongs--- Purse $200,000.
4)Collegeville Girl(5-2) will be my choice to WP. She won her first start after breaking a little slow and rushing up to set the pace on a good track. However, her sire did his best running from slightly off the pace. Most likely a race time decision by trainer to send her early. I look for her to rate today.
5)Awesome Debate(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She won her first start at Finger Lakes. However, her sire, Honorable Dillon, a son of Tapit, broke his maiden at Saratoga in his second start. She's had two works since her only start and both were good. Charlton Baker, who bred, owns, and trains her as he does with a lot of his horses, wins 22% of his starts, mostly at Finger Lakes, but has brought a string to race at Saratoga for several years and tends to be overlooked.
8)Harley Q(10-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She chased an only speed around the track at Parx Park in her first start in the mud. Her sire, Mucho Macho Man, won the G1 BC Classic in his last start and she is a member of his first crop to race. She has had three works since her first start and still working like she has some class.
8th Race: Yaddo Stakes--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies & Mares New York Bred--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf---- Purse $150,000.
1)Overnegotiate(15-1) will be my choice to WP. She is making her first start of the year and I normally will ber against Pletcher when he starts an older horse on dirt. However, this is grass and it is the only category he does decent in with older horses. She is working like she is ready to run fresh off the shelf, another trademark of Pletcher.
2)La Moneda(5-2) is my choice to complete my exacta. Her only two off the board finishes were in her first start and then in a race that was moved from the grass to the main dirt track and ran on a sloppy track. She has three good works for her first test of stakes company.
7)Fifty Five(8-5) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She is the class of this field and a G3 stakes winner, so she would be no surprise for the win. Chad Brown trains, so you can bet she will be ready.
9th Race: Fleet Indian Stakes--- 3 YO Fillies New York Bred--- 1 1/8 Mile--- Purse $200,000.
7)Rachel's Blue Moon(8-1) will be my choice to WP. Her trainer, James Jerkins, took his time with this filly getting her in peak shape and now is ready to test stakes company. She has recorded 4 works since her last, a good indication she is feeling good.
6)Held Accountable(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Her trainer, Philip Serpe, also has taken his time getting this horse in peak condition. After three sprints to start off her year, he is stretching her out to a distance that she is bred to handle on dirt. She made one start in open company at this distance and ran into Wonder Gadot but will find this spot much easier.
2)Take Charge Aubrey(6-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She was well beaten by the horse listed just below her, but that was in her first start against winners. She has since been given a new jockey in Jose Ortiz and responded with a convincing win. Her dam, Dr Zic, was a well put together mare that did her best in sprints but her broodmare sire, Milwaukee Brew, did his best in distance races, including two editions of the G1 Santa Anita H.
10th Race: West Point Stakes--- 3YOs & Up New York Bred--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf--- Purse $150,000.
10)Kharafa(6-1) will be my choice to WP. He last raced in the G3 Oceanport S, a race he has competed in on three occasions. That was his 4th start since taking a break of 7 months and he proved he is coming to hand. In a much easier spot this time and two good works since, he should be around at the end.
11) Rapt(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. All these horses takes turns beating each other and I believe he has an advantage over the favorite this time as he was making his first start in 6 months when they met two starts back.
12) Black Tide(12-1) will be my choice for third. He is now racing fit and should show the way but may keep going as this is his fourth start of the year.
11th Race: Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YOs & Up New York Bred--- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf--- Purse $45,000.
11)Neutral Zone(30-1) will be my choice to WP. He has done little in his first two starts on dirt and the grass may wake him up. He has a couple of horses in his pedigree that refused to pick up their feet on dirt but became stakes winners when tried on grass. He has works on dirt that suggest he should have ran a little bit, so trying grass may be the answer.
9)Causforcelebration(7-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He looks ready to break his maiden but always seems second best.
12)Brockmoninoff(5-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He has a little more upside than my pick just above him and could easily win this race. Actually, I will probably end up betting this one to WP and keying in the exacta but it will be a race day decision. Anyone in here is eligible to win in this weak field.
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Arlington Million Day--- What Happening?--- My Analysis To Help Others Understand

I am going to go over the Arlington Million card that was ran last Saturday. While most of my horses did not perform up to my expectations, I have looked over the results charts and can see that the ones I liked best did not get the best of trips, either from the gate or in the stretch after they had built up momentum. I am in no way trying to find excuses, only ways that I can improve my handicapping and hopefully avoid repeating my mistakes again. While there is nothing anyone can do about tough or less than ideal trips, it is often the difference between winning and losing. I have been looking over results throughout my life but have never even attempted to post my thoughts or findings. But through the years, this is what has helped me the most and hopefully will help you if you really want to get better and win with more consistency.
Race 1: This race ran true to form but mostly because the outsiders had already proven they had limited ability and not enough upside to spring an upset.
Race 2: I bet the 1)Drilliant to WP. According to the charts(and my own watching. also), he dwelt at the start(means he hesitated while others broke on cue)and came out last which pretty much eliminated him from serious contention on a track that was still affect by recent rain. He had works that show some early speed was possible, but you never know how any horse will react when loading in the gate with others for the first time. And since he drew the rail, he stood in the gate probably longer than anyone and was not focused enough on the break. I look for him to make amends when he runs back, especially with another work or two, because his first start was good experience for a young horse.
The winner, Hide The Demon, was my second choice because I thought Drilliant was better prepared for his debut. But had I gone with bloodlines instead like I usually would, he is one horse that I would had hit. Everyone on here should know by now that I bet City Zip lineage a lot and this one had Tapit as a broodmare sire and was a pedigree that I should have never even thought about betting against. But I did. My screw up!!!
The second favorite at post time won and the favorite ran second as these two went around the track together, first and second the whole way while opening up a big lead at the top of the stretch on the all weather track that was still drying out from recent heavy rain. Exacta pd $12.50.
Another first time starter you may want to keep your eyes open for is the 3rd place finisher, Ship Of The Line, especially if he shows up in grass race at a mile or further. He is royally bred for that surface and his trainer will put him on that surface before long. And while his trainer can win on dirt, he is much better with grass performers.
Race 3: I bet Fifth Ace to WP in this race mostly based off his first race and his bloodlines. But he did not break as alertly this time and basically ran an even race. The most probable reason was the grass was still wet and he could not gain the traction he was comfortable with. But he knows? Maybe he face a better field and was outclass, though his bloodlines says it was probably the first reason. I am satisfied with this pick and will look to bet him again in his next start, hopefully on firmer ground.
The favorite and 2nd favorite ran 1-2 but the payoff is exactly why you will not see me betting this combination very often. $10 for a $1 exacta which means you have to hit too many of these to eek out a small profit. But the horse(favorite)who won came from last and the second favorite came from slightly off the pace to run second.
Race 4: I bet Southsider to WP, mostly because I though he had a chance to get an uncontested lead as he had just broken his maiden in a turf sprint in good time. However, he was beaten to the lead by a 13-1 shot who had ran against winners over a dozen times, set a soft pace and held on to run 2nd, beaten by the favorite.
The favorite track early from slightly off the pace, dropped back a bit mid race and then had enough to run by a front runner who had everything his way, including a slow pace. Ex Pd $24.50. Will not consider either one in their next race.
Race 5: I bet Take the Odds to WP as the 2nd favorite mostly because of his bloodlines and I knew his trainer usually has them ready to win early. His works showed he was possible speed but he was beaten to the lead by another first time starter.
That first time starter, Winning Envelope, had better works and just as good bloodlines, but I was not at all familiar with his trainer. He won the race in a laughter as the third choice at 5-1 and looked very good finishing in a fast time.
Again on a drying out all weather track, the two front runners went around the track all the way in the same position, but this time the front runner ran away. The third favorite with the favorite exacta pd $27.10. Now you getting into an area where betting well bet horses are worthwhile.
6th Race: I bet 3)Justenufftuff simply because of his bloodlines and the fact he was stretching out on grass to a distance his bloodlines should had favored. And this one was much closer to winning than his finishing position suggest. He was battling for the lead near the rail at the furlong marker when he steadied in tight quarters, losing his momentum, per equibase race chart(but I was also watching and I saw it too). At 41-1, I was definitely satisfied with the effort, just did not get the racing luck. I will bet this one back his next time on grass or the all weather track.
With the 4th favorite winning at 5-1 and the 2nd favorite running second at 9-2, this exacta should have paid more than $26.50 it ended up returning. I would have been upset if I risked money on those odds and that is all it paid. But this was the first race ran Saturday that indicated the track was finally drying out, though the grass was still listed as good. Why do I say this? Because the winner came from last and the second place finisher was 2nd last early and this is what grass favors as it is getting near firm again, especially since the pace was slow.
7th Race: I bet Diamondmaze to WP in this race. And he ran just about the race I thought he would. He sat just off the pace of the front runners in third early, took the lead turn for home, before being ran down by the horse just behind him and 2 late runners, including one longshot which I had picked as my third choice that finished 3rd at 38-1.
The second favorite(All Call) came from near the back to win and the favorite came from slightly off the pace(just behind my pick) to run second, key a $12.10 exacta. But unlike the last race, the pace was picking up and getting close to normal.
Race 8: This was the race that I wish I could have back. I bet Wile E Peyote to WP in this race and I can not fathom why I would bet an angle that I have always been heavily against. But I did. He had won his last race but was tiring and veering in enough that the stewards thought it was warrant enough for a DQ. The horse who finished second, was pulling away from the rest, making me think the winner was getting chased by a good horse. But I have now looked up that horse and seen he was a career long low claiming horse. the two best horses he ever ran against was Runningfromthefeds(second earlier in an O/C 16,500 race) and Maxus(won 12,500 claiming turf race in 6th race). This race was a stakes race.
All I knew for sure was I was betting against The Tabulator when I started looking at the race. His form showed he ran some fast races but he only beat 2 horses one race and 4 another when he open a huge early lead and was gone against weak fields. I knew he would not get that luxury Saturday unless they tied everyone else to the gate. Outside of him, there was two horses that had ran against ran reasonable in stakes races, the winner at 35-1 and the 2nd place finisher at 6-1.
The winner, Sir Anthony, was making his fourth start in a stakes race, the first three restricted to Ill Bred but had 2 seconds in those third starts including beating Wile R Peyote in his last stakes three starts back and the horse who beat him in his first two stakes races. He was then put on grass where he showed he did not like as he never picked up his feet on that surface. Returned to the AWT, he went around the first turn, became ranked, then bolted against Wile E Peyote in a N/W of 1 other than allowance race, per equibase charts, basically taking him out of the race. Trainer decided to replace a jockey who rarely wins with Florent Geroux and the results was paydirt.
The second place finisher, Nobrag Just Fact, had just ran 2nd against Sniper Kitten in a $200,000 stakes race, who connections thought enough of to try him in the G1 Secretariat S. Sir Anthony, reverted back to his style of racing at 2 since he was now fit and closed from near the back of the field while Nobrag Just Fact stalked the pace and went by as the winner was going by in his first start on the all weather track, keying a $327.10 exacta. Say what you want but this race was the most pickable big paying exacta on the card.
9th Race: I bet Ming to WP in this race and got odds that I wanted too. He broke slowly as expected but saved ground until the stretch before swinging out turning into the stretch, was full of run but blocked by a wall of horses. To me, it looked like the jock got confused and did not know if he wanted to go further out or back in and ended up checking, but was still beaten only 3 lengths. I can live with this as he outran his odds, though he did not get the best of trips which probably cost him a few positions. But not sure he would have beaten top two without the trouble, either.
However, the winner, Carrick, was probably the best bet of the day bloodlines wise. He only have 3 lifetime starts, winning twice and in his first stakes race, he tried to bear out early causing John Velazquez to take a tight hold of, then was trying to close in the stretch as the pace quicken but still did not give up at 1 1/8 mile. Stretch to a 1 1/4 mile, he was able to sit a perfect stalking trip and had enough to get by the favorite when asked at 38-1. His sire is Giant's Causeway who everyone has heard of but his dam, How Far To Heaven, is bred 3x3 to Danzig and 3x4 to Mr Prospector. Add in Storm Cat and Rahy and Roberto(from Giant's Causeway side), then add Forty Niner & Gone West along with Quadrangle(foiled Northern Dancer's TC bid in the Belmont), you are looking at most of the top grass sires in the racing game today. No one else in this race has that much grass influence. His trainer, Thomas Morley, is fairly new to the U.S. racing game but his uncle was a top trainer in England for years and he came to the U.S. on the recommendation of Jeremy Noseda, who he learned under.
The three horses that tracked the pace closest to the front runners ran 1,2,3 and keyed a .50 tri for $1044.65. The two front runners finished 8th and 9th.
10th Race: I bet Dona Bruja to WP and charts says she was wrangled back at the start, a term I never heard of, then check going into the first turn. But, regardless, she did not try and was never a factor, finishing last.
The race was pretty formful for those of you who like to bet favorites. Sistercharlie won as the favorite and her stablemates also ran 2nd & 3rd. Fourstar Crook , like Sistercharlie, closed and ran 2nd as the 3rd favorite, keying a $8.90 exacta. However, Thasis, set about as slow pace as you will see in a G1 on a turf course that was upgraded to firm.
Race 11: I took a wild shot and bet Twenty Four Seven to WP simply because I thought the favorites were suspect at the distance or not really ready to perform their best.
Robert Bruce won as the 2nd favorite and I probably should have considered him, but I knew he had never gone this far with success and his broodmare sire was a son of Lure, winner of 2 BC Turf Miles, but who never won past 1 1/16 miles. Almanaar, the third choice, only ran once in the last 1 1/2 years and the field he beat that day was on the weak side. But so was this race so he probably did not need his best to compete in here, just not a type of horse that I bet very often. They both closed a little further back that mid pack and they chased the longshot speed down who easily put away the favorite under a solid pace, but he, too, was suspect at 1 1/4 mile. he drifted out in the stretch, impeding another horse and was DQ and placed 4th, indicating he was tired. Ex paid good for the 2nd & 3rd choice coming in at $18.60.
12th Race: I bet Madame Milan to WP. She sat behind the front runners as they battle through modest fractions and look like a winner turning into the stretch before flattening out.
The winner, Secret Message, 4th favorite at 6-1, broke poorly as she has done throughout her career even though she has strong speed influences on both sides of her pedigree, closed with a rush and won pulling away. Pamina, the 3rd choice, sat on the heels of the horse I bet, moved with that one into the stretch, put that one away shortly thereafter and finished with good energy to be a clear second. The exacta with the 4th choice at 6-1 on top of the third choice at 5-1 pd $35.80, decent for those odds.
Whether you agree with me or not, this post is about helping others get a grasp on the art of handicapping. You heard me say it dozen of times, there is good money to be made in horse racing betting, but only if you are really willing to learn. And whether you choose to learn and/or keep following systems that will cause you to struggle, you will be using your hard earned money the next time you wager. I will continue to do as I have for 40 years and that is bet horses according to my beliefs. Some of my most profitable days have come after I look back on previous days that were not so good for me, and made adjustments.
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Exacta “Fair-Pay” Chart (includes a 10% overlay amount added in) For exactas over $600 – you’ll likely be paying immediate “signer” taxes, so you’d better make sure they are paying far higher than fair pay to compensate for the guvment’s added take! EXACTA WHEEL If you like one horse and want to play it with all other combinations of the rest of the field, so that any other horse can run second, that's called wheeling.For example, if you like the #2 horse and want to play him to win, with all the other horses in the race, you'll say to the mutuel clerk "$1 Exacta, wheel the #2 on top." A horse racing Exacta is a wager on which two horses will finish in the first two positions. You need to get both the horses and their finishing positions EXACTLY right, hence the name. Let’s use an example to demonstrate how this wager works. Here’s what the Exacta betting menu looks like at one of our preferred online horse racing betting Part exacta wheels reduce some of the bias of betting exacta boxes. Exacta Betting Strategies. Through handicapping you determine horse #5 has a 50% chance of winning the race, horse #6 has a 20% chance of winning and horse #7 has a 10% chance of winning. You will be spending $60 on this race. Option 1. This means you can win big for a small bet stake. The definition of an Exacta is to select the first two finishers in a horse race in exactly the right order. Exacta betting is available on the most famous races like the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes and almost every other horse race in the world!

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