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Offseason with Cidolfus: Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks

There’s no way to discuss the Miami Dolphins looking ahead to the 2020 season without addressing the elephant in the room. Ever since Ryan Tannehill was shipped off to the Titans, a single question has loomed large over the future of this franchise: who is the long term answer under center? As we head into the 2020 draft with a top-five pick, it’s a question we’re going to be hearing an awful lot over the next few months.
I’ll be blunt from the outset: a great deal of this series this year is going to deal with that question. I understand that this is going to cause contentious debate, just as it has throughout the season and will continue to throughout the offseason. I understand also that some of my takes about our strategy this season are going to be controversial.
I’ve tried to stay out of the pro-/anti-tank arguments throughout the season as much as possible. I have not always been successful. Spoiler alert for those who hadn’t already caught on: Cidolfus was pro tank. I understand that this position makes many of you viscerally angry just as I understand that many who supported tanking were annoyed at those celebrating “meaningless” wins. So before we get going, I want to ask everyone to keep one thing in mind not only in regards to my own commentary to follow, but for any discussion in this series or in the many other posts that are sure to occur over the next several months:
Let people be fans in whatever manner makes them happy.
I understand that we have emotional reactions to this sport. Nevertheless, it bears reminding: football is a sport and watching is supposed to be fun. If someone wants to win every Sunday because it’s just more fun to win? Good for them. If someone is willing to trade losses now for a perceived advantage in the long term and is happy to see us lose now because they think it’ll be better later? Good for them. If someone wants to bandwagon a team because they just like to watch winning football on Sundays? Good for them. If someone wants to pick the Dolphins as their team for the future because they like the animal? Pity the poor fool, but good for them.
It’s not my job, your job, or anyone else’s job to tell someone else how to enjoy watching sports, so we should all just try and live and let live. That’s not to say that we can’t discuss these differing viewpoints. The whole point of this series is to generate discussion. Just keep it respectful.
Like last year, I plan on posting one of these each week throughout the postseason, and then when I can find time as appropriate through the offseason I’ll try to follow up with an additional free agency and draft discussion. I’m expecting a lot of real work to hit me beginning on March, though, so we’ll see what happens. As always, this series will be primarily geared towards team-building with a focus on contract management under the salary cap. I don’t pretend to be any great evaluator of NFL talent and instead rely pretty heavily on other sources for that type of analysis. This analysis is pretty statistics heavy, by which I mean the math part. Disclaimer: I’m not a statistician and I’m pretty far removed from what little stats I took in college at this point, so as far as the real math goes, it’s still going to be pretty rudimentary.
With all that said, let’s start The Offseason with Cidolfus III.

The Quarterback Conundrum

Whether you’re a believer or a skeptic of Flores as the coach to drag this franchise kicking and screaming out of mediocrity, I hope it is not too controversial to suggest that getting a quarterback should be our first priority from a roster-building standpoint.
But of course it is.
Especially due to the recent uncertainty regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s intentions to declare for the 2020 NFL draft, this subreddit has seen enthusiastic suggestions from using any of our three first round selections all the way to not even drafting a quarterback in the first three rounds at all and instead rolling into the 2020 season with Fitzpatrick and Rosen. Some suggest faith that Rosen can still develop into the heir apparent. Others recommend punting to the 2021 draft where we can try our chances at Lawrence or Fields. Still others suggest that first round quarterbacks are overrated and point to successes found in the middle and later rounds.
Those who have read these posts in previous years know that I’m a numbers guy. So I spent a good chunk of my holiday vacation this year compiling statistics on every quarterback drafted since 2000 to see what we can learn to inform a strategy as how to best find your future quarterback in the NFL. The data has mostly been culled from Pro Football Reference cross-referenced with Wikipedia for information on when players were rostered but did not play. Being a numbers guy, I would have liked to get into some more advanced metrics like ANY/A+ (which is useful for comparisons over a long period of time since it’s normalized to the league average over a three year period). Unfortunately, this information, and many other stats (like QBR) were not available going back the full twenty years, and I wanted to be as consistent as possible. Instead, I decided on 12 different values across three broader categories:
Activity: Availability is the best ability in the NFL. How many games did the player start? How many seasons was that player on an active roster? What percent of their possible games played did they start? What was the QB win percentage in starts?
Accolades: How many accolades did the quarterback acquire over their career? A lot of people will make appeals to these accolades when determining a player’s value, and while I find them the least helpful for this discussion, it’s good to know for argument’s sake. How many Pro Bowls, First Ballot All Pros, and MVPs did the player receive? How many Super Bowls did they win?
Stats: Nothing too fancy here. How did the player perform over their career? We’re looking mostly at career completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, adjusted net yards per attempt, and passer rating. These are some easily-digestible, high-level metrics on a quarterback’s general passing performance. I intentionally omitted rushing performance from this analysis because it’s so extremely skewed in favor of a small handful of quarterbacks that the data wouldn’t be particularly useful.

Some Caveats and Acknowledgments

I tracked total attempts initially as a metric to exclude or weight individual quarterback stats. For example, when calculating the average ANY/A, I wasn’t satisfied with simply taking the simple mean of the stat across all quarterbacks in a given round. After all, why should Tyrod Taylor’s 5.96 ANY/A on 1362 attempts be weighed just as heavily as Jordan Palmer’s -2.50 ANY/A on a mere 18 pass attempts?
On the other hand, weighing these stats would vastly overinflate the value of any single long-time player to skew the averages of any single round. Tom Brady’s 9959 career attempts, for example, account for more than 50% of passes thrown by sixth rounders drafted in the past 20 years. Tom Brady is obviously an outlier in the dataset: to weigh his 7.08 ANY/A as over 50% of the entire sixth round would dramatically skew the results even further.
As a result, I have not weighted any of the stat averages based on attempts or games player or any other metric of longevity. I admit that this skews the results the other way. Sticking with the sixth round, 26 of the 43 players drafted threw 50 or fewer attempts their entire career. Many of them never threw a pass in an NFL game, which I evaluated as straight 0s across the board. I decided that this is very much the point for this analysis: if a quarterback never throws an NFL pass, that is a completely unsuccessful draft pick.
I do not expect NFL drafting behaviors in general to change. Most sixth-round quarterback selections will never get a legitimate chance to start, so tracking averages in such a way that devalues a sixth-round quarterback by scoring them as straight 0s while allowing even bad first round selections to put up marginally better numbers is at least an acceptable reflection of a team’s actual attempts to draft quarterbacks.
There are going to be variables I can’t account for, at least not with the data available to me. Rules changes and general trends in the NFL have resulted in the bar moving pretty dramatically upwards especially in the past couple years.
With that all out in the open, let’s take a look at the past 20 years of drafting quarterbacks. As a quick note, I’ve made the assumption that Lamar Jackson wins the MVP this season (because obviously), but I’ve not projected a winner of the 2020 Super Bowl.

Round by Round

The quick and dirty: 242 quarterbacks were drafted between 2000 and 2019. Let’s start with a simple breakdown of the averages.

Means by Round

Round Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
7 36 8.44 3.86 5.31% 6.39% 0 0 0 0 22.86% 0.28 1.06 24.87
6 43 15.53 4.58 8.86% 13.87% 0.39 0.14 0.08 0.17 36.67% 0.67 2.34 43.02
5 34 3.50 3.74 4.77% 15.27% 0 0 0 0 27.38% 0.35 1.81 31.80
4 26 16.08 5.35 14.57% 21.05% 0.12 0 0 0 50.07% 0.72 3.17 60.43
3 26 22.42 6.08 19.42% 22.41% 0.35 0 0 0.08 50.17% 0.98 3.64 62.03
2 21 41.38 7.29 30.83% 35.97% 0.48 0.19 0 0.05 53.18% 1.07 4.28 67.06
1 56 70.52 7.38 58.57% 46.68% 0.93 0.11 0.11 0.13 60.12% 1.59 5.50 82.68
ALL 242 28.16 5.41 23.02% 23.96% 0.36 0.06 0.04 0.07 43.10% 0.95 3.18 53.88

Medians by Round

Round Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
7 36 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 43 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 34 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 35.80% 0 0.11 17.05
4 26 3.00 4.50 4.48% 5.00% 0 0 0 0 56.80% 0.59 4.37 63.95
3 26 10.00 5.00 13.28% 22.22% 0 0 0 0 59.00% 0.89 4.45 74.10
2 21 21.00 6.00 26.79% 38.71% 0 0 0 0 58.60% 0.86 4.68 72.70
1 56 50.00 7.00 63.54% 47.54% 0 0 0 0 60.30% 1.43 5.47 81.70
ALL 242 7.50 4.00 93.11% 20.00% 0 0 0 0 56.20% 0.71 4.11 69.00
A couple things to note looking at both of these tables in tandem: accolades are a poor metric by which to judge the worth of a quarterback pick in each round. This is easy enough to explain: the same few players have won the same awards multiple times in the past 20 years and there are also a limited number of each award per season. Only one quarterback can win MVP or win the Super Bowl, but multiple players can post a solid ANY/A over 6.00 each season. This scarcity is reflected by the median where the vast majority of players never win any of these awards. Case in point: Tom Brady accounts for 13.63% of all Pro Bowl nods, 33.33% of all First Team All Pros and MVPs, and 37.5% of all Super Bowl victories in the entire population examined. That doesn’t change that drafting a quarterback in the sixth round is functionally worthless.
Similarly, the number of seasons rostered and games rostered correlates very strongly to draft position. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, as even poorly performing players often get more opportunities to start draft position. The steadily increasing seasons rostered also indicates that the higher drafted a player is, the more likely they are to play a second contract. A median seasons rostered of 3.00 for rounds 5-7 indicates that quarterbacks drafted in those rounds are more often than not cut before completing a standard rookie contract.
At a glance, the data confirms what most probably suspected already: the higher a quarterback is drafted, the more likely it is that the team got it right and the quarterback in question was a successful pick. What can be observed from above is the general trend that all statistical measures trend positively with the round the player is selected. In general, from the data here it should be pretty obvious that a team is not likely to find their franchise quarterback after the third round as the means for nearly every category for all of those are lower than the means of all quarterbacks drafted. Shocker: quarterbacks in the back half of the draft are, on average, worse than the average of all quarterbacks drafted. So the question then becomes: how do the top three rounds stack up?

Completion Percentage

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 60.12% 3.82% 0.64
2 53.18% 17.81% 0.38
3 50.17% 21.73% 0.27

TD:INT

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 1.59 0.81 0.42
2 1.07 0.80 0.08
3 0.98 1.02 0.02

ANY/A

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 5.50 0.98 0.79
2 4.28 2.09 0.38
3 3.64 2.15 0.16

Passer Rating

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 82.68 9.89 0.79
2 67.06 27.33 0.36
3 62.03 29.78 0.22
Again as expected, the first round selection is, in aggregate, better. Importantly, though, first round selections are better not just because they have higher mean values for the stats we’re tracking here; they are better because they typically have less variance and also because they’re notably better relative to an average quarterback from the entire draft. Not only is the average ANY/A of a first round selection much higher than that of a second or third round, the standard deviation within its own population is dramatically lower. It’s a safer pick. The standard deviations of the mean from the mean of all draft selections also suggest that the average first round pick is, in general, better relative to the average of all picks than the second or third is. Again, that shouldn’t be a surprise given what we’ve already seen and the positive correlation between draft status and performance.
The takeaway from this should not be that you can only find success in the first round of the NFL draft for QBs or that top-selected quarterbacks are locks (more on that later). This is obviously and demonstrably not true. The takeaway should be that in the aggregate, quarterbacks in the first round are more successful than those drafted in any other round, and it’s not particularly close.
This brings me to the first of the draft suggestions proposed that I want to directly address.

But the best quarterback from the 2011 draft was a third rounder!

Look at Russell Wilson! Look at Dak Prescott! Drew Brees! Tom Brady! They are some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and they were all drafted outside of the first round. Tony Romo was a really good quarterback, and he even went undrafted! You don’t need to draft a quarterback in the first round to find your quarterback of the future.
Let’s look at all the teams in the NFL and who was projected as the team’s starting quarterback headed into the preseason and what round they were drafted in.
Team Quarterback Round
Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray 1
Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan 1
Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson 1
Buffalo Bills Josh Allen 1
Carolina Panthers Cam Newton 1
Chicago Bears Mitch Trubisky 1
Cincinnati Bengals Andy Dalton 2
Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield 1
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott 4
Denver Broncos Joe Flacco 1
Detroit Lions Matt Stafford 1
Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers 1
Houston Texans Deshaun Watson 1
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck 1
Jacksonville Jaguars Nick Foles 3
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 1
Los Angeles Chargers Philip Rivers 1
Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff 1
Miami Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick 7
Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins 4
New England Patriots Tom Brady 6
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees 2
New York Giants Eli Manning 1
New York Jets Sam Darnold 1
Oakland Raiders Derek Carr 2
Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz 1
Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger 1
San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo 2
Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston 1
Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota 1
Washington Redskins Case Keenum Undrafted
Only 10 of 32 teams planned to start a quarterback drafted outside of the first round at the beginning of this season. Of those teams planning to start a quarterback drafted outside the first, three of them were rostering quarterbacks drafted in the first who were expected to start at some point of this season (Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins). A full 75% of NFL teams went into 2019 planning to start a first rounder at quarterback at some point.
Tom Brady is one of 43 sixth rounds who has amounted to anything. Minshew has a chance at being the second, but his head coach won’t even commit to him as the starter for next season despite his solid performance. What Brady and Minshew have in common is that both got their first opportunity to start because the guy ahead of them on the depth chart who had just inked a massive new deal got injured.
Drew Brees had an up-and-down start to his career in San Diego before he started lighting the world on fire in New Orleans. Dak Prescott, like Brady, got the nod to start because Tony Romo got injured. He looked good in pre-season and flashed there, but if Romo doesn’t go down, is Prescott still the heir apparent? Does he survive two seasons on the bench, or do the Cowboys bring in competition when Romo retires?
Even Russell Wilson wasn’t projected to be the starter when he was drafted. The Seahawks had just inked a deal with Matt Flynn and he was expected to be their starting quarterback. Nobody was betting on the undersized guy to beat him out for the starting gig. Wilson came in and started playing extremely efficient football, sure. But without Beastmode pounding away on the ground and the Legion of Boom keeping scores low, how does that story go?
To be clear, I’m playing devil’s advocate here. I’m not saying this to discredit these players, but rather to demonstrate the reality of the circumstances in which they were drafted. The Patriots and the Seahawks didn’t outsmart everyone by drafting Brady and Wilson late. They got lucky. If Bill Belichick really, truly believed that Tom Brady would lead the Patriots to six Super Bowls, he wouldn’t have waited to the sixth round to draft him.
Banking on getting lucky is not a valid team-building strategy.
Tom Brady, Gardner Minshew, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round in twenty years to have a completion percentage of 60%, a TD:INT ratio over 2.00, and an ANY/A rating over 6.00. That’s a pretty low bar for franchise quarterbacks these days, and only eight out of 186 quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round qualify.
I’ll say it again for those in the back: banking on getting lucky is not a valid team-building strategy.

First Round Breakdown

So Cidolfus, you might say, what about within the first round? Top quarterback picks are overrated. Look at the past few seasons: the top QB drafted often isn’t the best QB in the draft. This is often true, so let’s take a look at the numbers here, too. I’ve broken down the quarterbacks selected in the first round by those taken in the top 5, those with picks 6-15, and those with picks 16-32.

Means by Pick

Picks Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
16-32 17 50.76 7.41 38.59% 44.77% 0.59 0.18 0.18 0.12 58.99% 1.60 5.12 76.70
6-15 14 55.14 6.07 56.32% 45.94% 0.79 0.07 0.07 0.14 60.19% 1.59 5.45 82.87
1-5 25 92.56 8.08 73.42% 48.39% 1.24 0.08 0.08 0.12 60.85% 1.58 5.74 84.22

Medians by Pick

Picks Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
16-32 17 33.00 7.00 32.64% 41.67% 0 0 0 0 58.10% 1.19 5.12 76.70
6-15 14 33.50 5.00 57.29% 46.22% 0 0 0 0 59.20% 1.40 5.38 78.95
1-5 25 73.00 7.00 76.79% 50.00% 0 0 0 0 61.50% 1.57 5.80 86.10
The first round plays out similarly to the entire draft. In general, quarterbacks taken in the top five (which, in this data set functionally means quarterbacks drafted in the top three, as only Philip Rivers and Mark Sanchez have been drafted at fourth and fifth overall respectively) are better in the aggregate than those selected elsewhere in the round.

Completion Percentage

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 61.50% 3.16 0.36
6-15 59.20% 4.00% -0.24
16-32 58.10% 5.00 -0.53

TD:INT

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 1.58 0.47 -0.01
6-15 1.59 0.91 0
16-32 1.60 1.14 0.01

ANY/A

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 5.80 0.78 0.31
6-15 5.38 1.32 -0.12
16-32 5.12 0.93 -0.39

Passer Rating

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 86.10 7.71 0.34
6-15 78.95 12.45 -0.37
16-32 76.70 10.85 -0.60
Like before, nothing too surprising here. We already knew that first round picks had relatively low variance, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see statistics clustered really heavily here. Only the touchdown to interception ratio doesn’t outright favor the top five picks, and even then the first five picks have the lowest standard deviation and a difference of 0.02 on a touchdown to interception ratio is only one extra touchdown for every fifty interceptions. That the standard deviation of the means for the 6-15 and 16-32 picks are below the mean of the entire first round in general also isn’t too surprising when considering that nearly half of the quarterbacks taken in the first round in the past twenty years have been taken in the first five picks.

What This Means About the Draft

So, to summarize so far: quarterbacks taken in the first round tend to be better than quarterbacks taken in any other round. They generally post better aggregate stats and there’s also a trend of decreasing variance among draft picks the higher you pick. The same applies to the first round itself but on a smaller scale. In the aggregate, a top five pick on an NFL quarterback not only typically yields the highest average performance, it is also the safest place to draft a quarterback as those who are drafted in that position exhibit the lowest variance of their performances. All of these numbers support what conventional wisdom already tells us.
What should definitely not be ignored in this conclusion, however, is that the data also tells us one other very important thing, and it’s yet another thing that conventional wisdom tells us: drafting a franchise quarterback is really, really hard. If we conclude that the average top five pick is the best chance we have in the aggregate, we also have to come to terms with the fact that the average top five pick also isn’t a great quarterback.
A career completion percentage of 60.19%, a touchdown to interception ratio of 1.59, an ANY/A of 5.45, and a passer rating of 82.87 for a player who wins 46.22% of their games and starts for not even three and a half seasons of games is not great. For some perspective: those numbers are worse than Tyrod Taylor’s career numbers.
A top five quarterback pick is obviously not a lock for a franchise quarterback, but it offers the best chance to find your guy.

What About Free Agents or Trades?

All right, so that’s the draft, but that’s only part of how you put together a roster in the modern NFL. What about our options in free agency or on the trade market? Historically speaking, starting quarterbacks who hit free agency or are traded do so for a reason. You don’t have to go back nearly as far as 2000 to demonstrate my point here. Just look at the last several seasons of transactions:
  • Josh Rosen traded to the Dolphins for a 2nd and a 5th
  • Ryan Tannehill and a 6th traded to the Titans for a 4th and a 7th
  • Nick Foles signed by the Jaguars, 4 years, $88 million
  • Joe Flacco traded to the Broncos for a 4th
  • Case Keenum and a 7th traded to the Redskins for a 6th
  • Case Keenum signed by the Broncos, 2 years, $36 million
  • Kirk Cousins signed by the Vikings, 3 years, $84 million
  • Alex Smith traded to the Redskins for Kendall Fuller and a 3rd
Hindsight on most of these has looked pretty bad for the team acquiring the quarterback. Cousins and Tannehill have been the most successful of the bunch, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. Tennessee is obviously glad to have Tannehill this year (as are we all), but in 2019 Tannehill and Derrick Henry had a combined salary cap cost under $4 million. The Titans have $48 million in cap space in 2020 and Ryan Tannehill, Logan Ryan, Jack Conklin, and Derrick Henry are all unrestricted free agents. Cousins hasn’t lit the world on fire in Minnesota, and I don’t think anyone is rushing to call his fully-guaranteed contract the deal of the century, but it hasn't been the worst deal in the world.
Teams do not generally let good quarterbacks go unless they have a clear successor ready to roll in their absence. When you see names like Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston thrown around this offseason, take a look at who’s replacing him on that roster and ask why we would want to pay veteran quarterback money for someone another team is ready to walk away from.

Okay, So What?

That’s all great, but what does this tell us? There are three prime takeaways from this:
In the aggregate, quarterback performance appears to correspond with draft position. The higher the quarterback is drafted, the better the in general he is likely to be. Most quarterbacks drafted aren’t very good. Busts are common even at the top of the draft where a team has the best chance to find their guy. Free agents are free agents for a reason. If a team is willing to let a quarterback go, odds aren’t good that he’ll be someone substantially different with another team.
With all of this in mind, how should it inform our strategy moving forward? The first takeaway suggests that we shouldn’t bet on beating the system by passing on quarterbacks until later in the draft. It takes a special kind of hubris as a general manager to believe that you’re smarter than everyone else and will be able to find your guy that all the other teams slept on. In the hunt to find a quarterback, most teams will have to invest meaningful draft capital into the position. We have the fifth overall pick, and if a guy we think can be our franchise quarterback is available at that position, we’d be foolish to wait until one of our later firsts or even our seconds to draft him. The only reason that we should be passing on a quarterback in the first round this year is if we do not think that guy is there.
The second takeaway suggests that the single most important thing that we can do to maximize our chances to find our quarterback of the future: keep drafting them. Since Dan Marino left, the Dolphins have drafted six quarterbacks:
  • Josh Heupel (2000; Round 6, Pick 177)
  • Josh Beck (2007; Round 2, Pick 40)
  • Chad Henne (2008; Round 2, Pick 57)
  • Pat White (2009; Round 2, Pick 44)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012; Round 1, Pick 8)
  • Brandon Doughty (2016; Round 7, Pick 223)
That’s fucking scandalous. In the twenty years since Dan Marino retired, the Dolphins have drafted only six quarterbacks, and only one of them in the first round. We’ve relied heavily on free agents and castoffs from other organizations trying to replace one of the greatest pure passers of all time.
Last year we spent a second round and fifth round selection to trade for Josh Rosen, a first round pick only a year removed from being selected 10th overall. He hasn’t been able to supplant the textbook definition of a journeyman quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick this season. There’s no indication beyond wishful thinking that we should be willing to allow Rosen to be the only young quarterback developing on our roster right now. I believe strongly that unless our front office truly, truly believes that our quarterback of the future isn’t in the 2020 draft, we should be spending our fifth overall pick drafting a quarterback. And even if we don’t love anyone enough to take them at five, we should still be open to drafting someone in the second or third if anyone falls.
As mentioned earlier, the hiring of Chan Gailey as our offensive coordinator probably suggests some level of commitment to Ryan Fitzpatrick as a starting quarterback for at least the beginning of the 2020 season, but no sane fan believes that the 37-year-old journeyman is our future. That said, keeping him on does allow us to avoid throwing a quarterback right into the fire. The reality is that quarterbacks drafted in the first round rarely sit for their rookie seasons anymore. Mahomes only played the last game of his rookie season after the Chiefs had already clinched and Rodgers obviously sat behind Favre, but they’re the two notable exceptions in more than a decade. Even though I expect Fitzpatrick to kick the season off, it’s a good bet that he won’t start the full season.
And then, until we are absolutely certain that our young starting quarterback is the future of our franchise, we should continue to draft quarterbacks. Obviously you don’t need to continue to invest high picks every single year, but until a team has committed to a quarterback on a long-term, veteran contract, it’s in the team’s best interest to continue to invest picks in rounds 2-4 on quarterbacks at least every other year.
One of the biggest mistakes the Dolphins made during Ryan Tannehill’s tenure was ignore the quarterback position after drafting him. The front office should have been drafting quarterbacks if not to push him then to have a young, cheap back-up quarterback with upside. When Tannehill went down with an ACL injury, it’s an absolute travesty that our front office made no effort to augment our QB room until Tannehill reinjured the ACL and missed the season and instead overpaid to bring Jay Cutler out of retirement.
Tannehill’s injury not progressing as expected or being reinjured should have been a scenario we planned for, and that we signed Cutler so late suggests that we never had a serious conversation about what a season of Matt Moore would look like. With Tannehill recovering from injury, we should have used that as an opportunity to add a young guy with upside to our quarterback room. Would it have worked out any better? Given the quarterbacks who came out of the later rounds of the 2017 draft, probably not, but that’s something we know in hindsight, and given the results of the 2017 season and the cap cost of Cutler, it’s a move we should have made.
This team shouldn’t make the same mistake again. The Miami Dolphins have pussyfooted around investing in finding a quarterback for the future through the draft for years, and it’s time that changes. I’ll address my specific thoughts on our options in the draft later in this series. Frankly, until Tua Tagovailoa makes an announcement tomorrow, it’s really too early to say anything for sure. Even if you’re skeptical of Tua for whatever reason, his availability likely shifts how other quarterback-needy teams act (including the possibility of jumping us as the Cardinals did to secure Rosen). In the meantime, to sum up my thoughts on general strategy:
We should almost certainly draft a quarterback in the first round of this year’s draft. Probably at fifth overall unless we really, truly, do not believe in any of the guys available. We should continue to spend middle-round selections on quarterbacks in subsequent seasons until we’re absolutely certain we have our quarterback of the future. Even after we have our quarterback of the future, we should continue to invest in selecting quarterbacks in the later rounds regularly (although not every year) to try to develop talent from within.
What are we looking to find? Based on the numbers, in order to meet what most people would expect of a starting quarterback in today’s NFL, expect the quarterback to hit the following benchmarks at minimum:
  • Completion percentage of at least 60%
  • TD:INT ratio of at least 2.0
  • An ANY/A of at least 6.0
Typically, if a player manages to hit all three of those benchmarks, he’s well on his way to being a winning quarterback, although not necessarily an elite one. And as we’ve just seen in the wildcard round, having a quarterback who’s good enough can sometimes be enough.
Next week, I'll be continuing with where I usually start with this series, the season review including thoughts on the coaching staff, player performance, and a review of in-season transactions. Enjoy the rest of wildcard weekend, all.
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Week 15 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3 (DFAroto)

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26

Jaguars

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.

Raiders

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23

Browns

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.

Cardinals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25

Falcons

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.

49ers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75

Rams

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.

Cowboys

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5

Vikings

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.

Chargers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25

Colts

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.

Saints

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
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How to Win at Sports Betting

Want to understand the best information on how to win at sports betting? Just a single amount of time in the US leading professional sports history features a team had an excellent year old. Nobody is really flawless. The purpose is that losses will happen in sports betting. The most useful sports bettors on earth infrequently acquire more than 55 percent of their full time. Winning in sports gambling is not hard. Period. There’s a reason sports betting is this a profitable company that’s currently becoming popular in most locations. With that said, a few sports bettors do triumph and acquire plenty of dollars! It is from hopeless for a successful sports bettor. However, as clear, with no correct knowledge and techniques, it won’t happen. These fundamentals, in sequence, if grant the novice sports bettor an opportunity to develop into successful.
Keeping up a solid grasp on bankroll direction is readily in comparison to the real-life experience of purchasing a brand-new vehicle. When an individual would like to get a brand-new car, he needs to get in the dealership using a notion of just how far he wants to pay and how far he could pay off. On average, both of these are different amounts. However, the purpose is he wants to get into the dealership using a budget. Do you know what happens when he does not? Inevitably, he will go from this automobile having a half-smile on his head, because he’ll have a new vehicle for nearly double as far as he wanted to invest. It pays to have a budget in place.
The specific same is said for sports betting; bankroll direction is vital. To begin with, specify a spending budget. When a business budget is not put, it could on occasion be almost inevitable to pay more cash than could be afforded. Self-control is almost always a significant secret of sports betting, and establishing funding may be a lifesaver.
Together with establishing funding, actually managing that funding is essential. Evidently, falling half of their cover an elongated time period using a single underdog to mad a popular probably isn’t the smartest option. Can it cover off? Sure. But more times than not, this underdog will definitely lose, and also all of the amount of money budgeted to make use of will probably undoubtedly be lost with that. It’s a recognized belief with each bet, merely a small number of their allocated budget needs to really be wagered. Such a thing in 1 to 5% of their funding each bet is okay.
Placing an Excellent Betting Portfolio
Placing a good Sports Betting portfolio could be trying for players that are new. Quite often, inexperienced bettors find one particular match that they enjoy and also put much of this budgeted money about it. When just a single bet is in drama, fortune and other things can play a massive roll in the end result. But if five or even five distinct kinds of wagers come in drama (notably with various matches), the bettor is quite a bit more inclined to acquire true outcomes while in the long run.
Some reason new bettors may fight to set a diverse gaming portfolio is that it is not simple to achieve that. That isn’t always the situation. It all will take is dispersing the budgeted money from unique bets in distinct locations.
Some experts may provide certain proportions of funding which ought to really be wagered on different bet types. Every bet is only a bit different. Having said this, every bet involves something besides the bettor. Obviously, it could be smart to bet that a greater proportion of funding onto a superior profit/low hazard prospect. Obviously, it could be unwise to even bet that a sizable proportion of funding at a really low profit/high hazard prospect. Thus, some times more of a bettor’s funding is going to be spent on one area instead of a second. A second week, it may be reverse osmosis the alternative way.
No matter a bettor’s profile needs to contain a wholesome mixture of these stakes: contrary to the spread, money line, oveunder, futures, props, and also certainly will comprise parlays and teasers. Using a diverse portfolio of stakes, the bettor is a great deal more inclined for authentic, quality outcomes as opposed to changing everything to a bet.
Finding stakes with a fantastic possibility to acquire money is something different which can be rough for players. There really are a number of things to remember while trying to find and considering a bet.
Understand the value and return on investment
Have a look at additional articles on Betting Pros regarding the potential value and return on investment to get the complete comprehension of exactly what those 2 things are. On the web calculators and tools provide bettors using easy tools to make use of to provide help. A fast-online search, together with the input of a couple of amounts, is it requires. Evidently, a bettor wishes to own high numbers as you possibly can for the two of these amounts. Ranked EV and ROI on possible stakes might help new betters find potentially excellent investments.
Search for value selections, maybe not winners
That one could seem just a bit funny. But, consider this way. 1 bettor could acquire nine out often stakes, with precisely the exact same quantity of money added to each individual bet, and lose money. Still, another better could acquire one out often stakes, with precisely the exact same sum of money added to each individual bet again, and also win funds. Sports gambling is an all-around value. Though the very first bettor comes with a 90% success rate, everybody else would preferably be the 2nd bettor and acquire money. When a bettor knows EV and ROI, appreciate selections can more readily be seen.
Possess a Very Long memory
Possessing a brief memory is just one of those utter worst qualities a sports bettor could possess. The NFL always provides flawless examples; teams may smash it 1 week, simply to get defeated the following week. A very long memory helps players to see potential wagers at which odds-makers might have been only a touch too short while.
Bet at the Right time
In the early stages, chances are unchanged and fresh by any people's trends. Sports-books have a tendency to wish to maintain things as much as you can for themselves, even though, and significant money towards one side or the other may induce odds-makers to make alterations. Clearly this is sometimes grounds to bet early until the likelihood vary, however it may be rationale to bet overdue, too. When a bettor finds odds apparently skewing too much in 1 direction through the entire time in front of a match, this also can be considered a perfect chance to battle upon. Betting premature or catching opportunities are just two of those better days to bet.
Research Recommendations
Research is essential in sports gambling. That might seem obvious, in the current modern world, people desire results using as little effort as you possibly can. Sports gambling is simply like everything else on the planet. When your bettor works hard, he or she’s got a higher likelihood of succeeding. Sports gambling research may incorporate anything from looking into stats and watching matches, to calculating return on investment. To simplify all of it, break down the research into two distinct types: sports comprehension and amounts comprehension.
The particular “sport” side of playing sports gambling is most likely what many casual fans like. This may include things like watching games, researching numbers, observation player and team trends, etc. For sports bettors, this can be valuable to concentrate on a single game, since the time that it requires to achieve so research for numerous sports might be overwhelming. For an effective sports bettor, have a fantastic knowledge base of this game. Put at the time that it will take to think about yourself as an “expert” at this match. It’s going to probably pay off.
The amounts side of this search for sports gambling may be more stressful. Assessing different game outlines, calculating EV and ROI, and finding amazing values might be much more important compared to sports knowledge, yet. Actually, locating the most effective odds from various sportsbooks are also the difference between losing and winning a bet. Find an Excellent value, locate the best chances for this bet, and wager off.
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Divisional Weekend Matchup Guide (Part 1)

Part 1 of 2

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/divisional-weekend-matchup-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. We will give estimated valuations of players, as well as game flow projections and possible implications of injuries or trends on those involved. Best of luck to all!

DFAroto Playoff Record for Predictions

Moneyline: 2/4
ATS: 3/4

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Vikings ATS: 10-7-0 49ers ATS: 9-6-1
Projected Point Totals: Vikings 18.75 49ers 25.75

Vikings

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #11
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (P) DE Kentavius Street (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): WR Adam Thielen (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Stefon Diggs (23%) Adam Thielen (12%) Dalvin Cook (10%) Kyle Rudolph (10%) Irv Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Dalvin Cook (78%, 31, 5) Alexander Mattison (18%, 6, 2) Ameer Abdullah (4%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
How you like me now?! Kirk Cousins (downgrade) got the first big win of his career last week in a shocking upset of the Saints in The Big Easy. On tap is another beastly defense; San Francisco ranks second in Pass DVOA, while also producing the 11th best Run DVOA. Needless to say, it projects as tough sledding for the entire Vikings offense. Mike Zimmer’s game plan will flow through the run game again, capping Cousins upside in the box score. He again projects as a fade for DFS, especially considering the other signal callers available on the slate. The matchup isn’t a good one - SF cedes just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs and just 19.1 to opposing WRs - Plus, the 49ers defense will be bolstered by the return of LB Kwon Alexander and SS Jaquiski Tart. DT Dee Ford was also expected to return, but his status is now a bit murkier as we head into the weekend. All of this is to say, it’s probably best to go a different route at QB.
Stefon Diggs (slight downgrade) busted last week, but if you read our Wild Card article it was to be expected. San Francisco has been second best in the NFL for limiting explosive pass plays (20+ yards), giving them up on just 6% of plays (sharpfootballstats). Considering Diggs role in the Vikings offense as the main downfield threat, he again faces an uphill battle to DFS success. If not for the midweek injury to fellow wideout Adam Theilen (Q), Diggs would be receiving a full downgrade. If Theilen is in anyway limited, however, Diggs could see a volume upgrade that would keep him active in the WR2 conversation. Plus, he’s always just one deep ball away from hitting value. Either way, Diggs is no more than a contrarian play in a tough matchup - according to PFF his matchup disadvantage is set at -5%, he’s expected to see primary coverage from Ahkello Witherspoon (PFF’s No. 72 CB). While that matchup isn’t exactly imposing, considering the 49ers also field the No. 1 ranked CB (Richard Sherman), and the No. 9 (K’Waun Williams); it’s going to be tough for Diggs. The midweek injury to Theilen renders him no more than a dart throw due to volume and playing time concerns. Proceed at your own risk, but again he’s the preferred play to Diggs if active and not limited. Kyle Rudolph hauled in the game winner last week, but outside of that barely managed to produce. He and Irv Smith are no more than touchdown dependent tight end options. The edge again goes to Rudolph due to his nose for the endzone.
RB Breakdown
Dalvin Cook (volume upgrade) handled an amazing 31 touches in the Wild Card Round, parlaying them into 94 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, also adding a 3-36-0 receiving line. San Francisco has been a bit weaker against the run than the pass, so Cook can again be considered a volume based RB1 with a great chance at finding the endzone. His monster volume should alleviate any concerns of the tough matchup - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RBs, giving up an average of 112.6 yards per game on the ground - still, Cook can’t be counted out, and may be under-owned due to the expected negative game-script. Remember, this offense flows through Cook.

49ers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA (Regular Season): #7
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA (Regular Season): #9
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (D) CB Mackensie Alexander (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): G Mike Person (P)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): George Kittle (31%) Emmanuel Sanders (19%) Deebo Samuel (18%) Kendrick Bourne (9%) Raheem Mostert (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Raheem Mostert (54%, 11, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 6, 2) Matt Breida (16%, 4, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers head into Saturday as 7 point home favorites. This is in large part due to their success on defense in 2019, but also because Jimmy Garoppolo (slight downgrade) has proven to be a massive success. The guy is sporting a perfect QBR when throwing the ball 20+ yards between the numbers (Next Gen Stats), plus, he’s been pretty damn good throwing to every other place on the field as well. The Vikings have been very good against imposing signal callers - limiting QBs to just 14.2 FPPG and WRs to 22.4 FPPG - plus, they held Drew Brees to just 208 yards passing in the Wild Card Round. Another thing to consider, Jimmy G is making his first career playoff start, and historical trends show us that quarterbacks generally struggle. Since 2010, teams are 9-17 when starting a first-time quarterback in the playoffs (washingtonpost.com). Still, it feels different with Jimmy G. However, considering that the Vikings were able to get pressure against the Saints, who have a better ranked offensive line according to PFF than the 49ers, and that San Francisco is a run first team, Jimmy G should likely be faded this weekend.
Deebo Samuel (slight upgrade) and Emmanuel Sanders are the only wideouts in this offense with over 10% of the target share, making them the only ones worth considering. Sanders has taken on the role as field stretcher with an aDOT of 12.6 yards, while Samuel has thrived as an underneath play maker with an aDOT of 6.5 yards, while also churning out 201 YAC this year. The Vikings corners are a bit banged up, plus were never an imposing matchup anyway - Trae Waynes (PFF’s No. 27 CB), Mike Hughes (PFF’s No. 101 CB), and Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 141 CB) have all been exploitable, while Mackensie Alexander (PFF’s No. 59) has been announced as out for this weekend. Samuel has the second best matchup advantage for the weekend according to PFF, behind only Tyreek Hill. He’s sitting at a 20% advantage, while Sanders isn’t far behind at 18%. One thing to consider is the explosive pass rate (20+ yards) given up by the Vikings. They only yield them on 7% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com), making Samuel the preferred play as the underneath option. George Kittle (upgrade) has been an absolute stud in 2019, not only is he the No. 1 ranked tight end by PFF, he’s also the highest ranked player in the NFL by PFF. He’s a freaking monster. Still, the Vikings have been very good against opposing tight ends - ceding just 4.8 FPPG to the position, second best. Either way, I’m not willing to bet against Kittle, and considering the other tight ends on the Saturday slate, he should likely be locked into most lineups. The only other to be considered is Mark Andrews (see below), who draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Titans.
RB Breakdown
The 49ers backfield has been a bit of a mess to predict all year, but has shaped up in favor of Raheem Mostert in recent weeks. The emergence of Mostert has relegated Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida to complementary roles, with neither offering much in the way of fantasy value. Minnesota has been average against enemy backs - surrendering 16.5 FPPG to the position - but they have allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests. The Vikings defense played above their season average in terms of rushing yards allowed against the Saints, only giving up 97 yards, but New Orleans only ran the ball a meager 17 times. Mostert is in a good spot to produce considering the expected positive game-script at home, but the concern in a Kyle Shanahan offense is the hot hand approach used by the coaching staff. If Mostert doesn’t get it going early, he could see his touches dwindle in favor of a producing back. Still, he’s the cheapest starting RB on the Saturday slate, and offers the same touchdown upside as the other options. Proceed at your own risk, but Mostert could be a fixture in lineups finishing in the money.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 21

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Titans ATS: 9-7-1 Ravens ATS: 10-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Titans 18.5 Ravens 28

Titans

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (BAL) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): WR Adam Humphries (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): AJ Brown (26%) Corey Davis (16%) Tajae Sharpe (12%) Adam Humphries (12%) Jonnu Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Derrick Henry (81%, 35, 1) Dion Lewis (18%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Titans passing offense predictably found little success against the shutdown secondary of New England last week, but thanks to strong work in other facets of the game, they are on to the second round. Ryan Tannehill (potential volume upgrade) was a dud in lineups last week, going 8/15 for only 72 yards in the win, despite starting strong on his first drive with multiple completions and a TD throw. As the game wore on, he struggled to find anything downfield and the Titans settled into a ground and pound approach to bleed the clock and pull out a win. The Ravens secondary is unlikely to be much softer on Tannehill this week, as their four main CBs all rank in the top-35 in yards per cover snap as graded by PFF (Rotoworld). The one factor that may work in his favor is a potential shootout forced by the Ravens’ potent offense; if the Titans are facing a big second half deficit they will be less able to lean on their run game. Tannehill isn’t a great play, but makes for a possible dice roll in hopes this turns into a high-scoring and pass-happy affair.
With Tannehill limited by both volume and ineffectiveness, none of the Titans WRs were able to produce last week. That could change if the Ravens force this game into a higher scoring affair - their offense is in another world from the Patriots this season - so there is hope for these pass-catchers this week. While the Ravens secondary is among the best in the NFL, they did rank middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs over the course of the season. Still, they are now ranked by DVOA as the 2nd best defense in the league (based on Weighted DVOA, since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted), so this will be a tough matchup. The projected negative game flow could play in the Titans WRs favor though; any increase in volume would be welcomed. AJ Brown (slight upgrade) is the safest bet of this group as he was on an extreme hot streak to finish the regular season, and is not the first WR to be shut down by the Pats defense, so prospective owners should try to have a short memory. Expect him to lead the team in targets and/or catches, and he has a solid shot of bouncing back. He makes for a quality Saturday play based on hope for volume and high-scoring conditions. Corey Davis (volume downgrade) is much riskier, as he hasn’t seen the targets to believe he can produce well this week. He’s no more than a low-end dart throw in hopes of a red zone target or two. Jonnu Smith (matchup downgrade) was ineffective last week, and now faces a Baltimore defense that ceded the fewest FPPG to TEs in the regular season. He still has the upside and athleticism to pop off a big play or two, but he is not a trustworthy play. Ultimately, only Brown is worthy of rostering unless you are willing to roll the dice.
RB Breakdown
There is really no other way to describe Derrick Henry’s (upgrade) performance last week other than pure dominance. Yes, he is running behind a strong O-Line, and yes he is in a scheme that plays to his strengths. However, in watching the tape it’s clear that on many of his runs he is creating a large portion of the yards on his own. This season, he was tops in the NFL in yards after contact with 973, and was third in broken tackles at 29 (theringer.com). He continues to run around, past, and through defenders on a weekly basis. Baltimore’s defense did well to limit RBs through the regular season, but that was in part due to their lack of RB receptions allowed, which doesn’t affect Henry as much (Rotoworld). They will do everything they can to limit Henry this week, and potential negative game script may limit his second half touches, but Henry is still a top play for Saturday. He will get 20+ touches, likely see at least one goal line opportunity, and is the only real hope the Titans have of springing the upset. Just be aware there is concern of negative game-flow limiting him slightly. Dion Lewis is not a realistic fantasy option.

Ravens

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN) Wednesday Report: LB Jayon Brown (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL) Wednesday Report: Mark Ingram (Q) Mark Andrews (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Adoree Jackson (unlikely full shadow, Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Mark Andrews (22% Marquise Brown (14%) Jaleel Scott (14%) Seth Roberts (12%) Willie Snead (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 16: Mark Ingram (41%, 10, 2) Gus Edwards (41%, 13, 1) Justice Hill (18%, 6, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens head into Divisional Weekend fresh and rested, and Lamar Jackson (upgrade) now gets the opportunity to rack up the first of what should be many playoff wins in his career. The all but certain 2019 NFL MVP last took the field in Week 16 when he orchestrated a win over the Browns to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. Fantasy owners need no reminder of the ridiculous numbers Jackson put up in the regular season, and there is little reason to expect much of a dropoff on Saturday. The Titans were strong against the pass in the regular season, and looked impressive in holding Tom Brady to 209 yards with no scores and one interception. However, Jackson’s game is as much running as it is passing, and there has been no team that truly slowed him from racking up yards in either area during the regular season. Jackson is the top play at QB for the weekend, and should pay off well for prospective owners that choose to invest in him.
Jackson’s historical rushing production meant that owners were unable to glean much from this passing game. Only Mark Andrews (upgrade) was a consistent fantasy option throughout the year, and he quickly became a top-5 weekly option. Tennessee gave up the 6th most FPPG to TEs through the regular season, so this is a plus matchup for the stud TE. Andrews is a top option for the Saturday slate, or the weekend overall, and should be a staple in lineups that can afford him. After that, things get tricky. Marquise Brown (slight upgrade) proved to be worth owning this season, but he was still a weekly bust candidate if not catching a deep ball or snagging one of Jackson’s five passing TDs on a given week. The Titans were middle of the pack against WRs, and have a below-average pass DVOA, but Brown should see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage as well. Jackson has the speed to keep up with Brown in theory, so there’s less of a perceived advantage there. However, if Jackson gets his passing game going, Brown is second only to Andrews in terms of likely production received from said passing. Consider Brown a boom or bust WR3 type this week; he’s an intriguing tournament option to go against the grain. No other Baltimore pass-catcher can realistically be put into a lineup.
RB Breakdown
Thursday’s practice report brought about a limited session for veteran starting RB Mark Ingram (questionable), and there are mixed reports about his potential availability. If he is able to play, Ingram may see slightly reduced snaps, although he has already been only about a 50-60% snap guy in the regular season, but his touch count could be further limited. The matchup with the Titans is somewhat favorable - they had the 19th worst run DVOA but gave up the 13th fewest FPPG to RBs - and the Ravens are huge home favorites, which increases his odds of punching in a TD or two. This gives his outlook a boost, but the injury concern merits close monitoring, and could put him at risk for an in-game aggravation that would tank any lineup. If he is ultimately ruled out prior to kickoff, Gus Edwards (volume upgrade if Ingram sits) and Justice Hill immediately vault into potential solid plays. Edwards would likely see the bulk of the early down work, with Hill mixing in as a change of pace and passing game option. Still, Hill didn’t get much passing involvement in the regular season, and would be virtually impossible to trust unless clear reports emerged stating his expected involvement (unlikely). Edwards would be the much stronger play, and would actually become one of the best value options of the weekend. He would likely see around 15-20 touches and have first shot at goal line opportunities. Keep a close eye on the injury reports, and consider avoiding the situation entirely unless a definitive report about Ingram surfaces in advance of lineups locking.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Titans 17
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!

(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!
MyBookie

Daily Free MAC ATTACK Plays Below!

Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [email protected] Become a Member - Join The Patreon - $25 Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS! Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks MAC Media: The Reddit Sports Report The Red Alert Report The MAC'S Instant Access Red Pass: 1 Day Only Access RED PASS: $14.99 - Pay By Phone: Call The Red Line & Follow Automated Instructions (Payments Processed via © Stripe)
NBABETS
https://preview.redd.it/6puypx35rxj41.jpg?width=2500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6e22485fd1b7802c9c9dedef1ec99e69b6ee94e
(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT! Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure! Cracking them open and cleaning them out last night, MAC's Red Alerts go 2-1, Penn covered easily as a 8.5 underdog and our Red Alerts are just cash in the bank!
Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
(FEB 29) MAC GOT HIS LAST NIGHT - CBB HUSH MONEY ACTION NOW 36-13 FOR THE SEASON - Getting another win on the Quakers +8.5, MAC's hush money plays are blowing the books open! The Quakers getting 8.5 points against a weak Yale team was just another example of how horrible the odds makers are this year. The MAC has been picking off games all season and March Madness is his specialty, ripping down office pools and NCAAB March Madness Contests is just what the MAC does. Tonight's Hush Money game between Montana +2 vs Sacramento State -2 starts at 10:00 and RedAlertWagers.com has the action that makes cash. The stock market is crashing and MAC's answering back with the very best college basketball sports investments available - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks! Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY on the Montana +2 vs Sacramento State -2 Big Sky show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball & NBA Predictions. THE MAC HAS HIS LATE GAME RED ALERT PLAY - 10:00 - Pacific -4 vs San Diego +4 CBB Low Key Game - A 15 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats - MAC has been hitting the CBB Action hard and averaging around 60% this year for NBA bettors.
  • Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
  • Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
  • Toreros are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Toreros are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Toreros are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Toreros are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!! The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's CBB RED ALERTS are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass! CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (8:00 - Cleveland State +8.5 vs Wisc Green Bay -8.5) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (8:00 - IPFW +10.5 vs Oral Roberts -10.5) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (10:00 Pacific -4 vs San Diego +4) CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 29) - (10:00 Montana +2 vs Sacramento State -2)
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!
(FEB 29) Saturday's Free Special Wager Picks Below! THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - LAST NIGHT'S NBA RED ALERT - Atlanta Hawks +3 was exactly what we excepted - (A mismatch game + A telling line = NBA CASH $) + MAC ATTACK picks go 2-1, it's just what MAC does. March Madness Marathon
Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Exclusive Releases & Red Alert Free Plays exhibit why Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman's reputation as THE PAYMASTER is galvanized in the gambling underworld as a dangerous low key sharp! He doesn't know where you been, but The MACS been dicking down the sports betting game since the Star Dust was the place to get a high end hooker and a cocktail! Thursday Night MAC Called the FREE PICK SWEEP, then went 3-0 on Daily MAC ATTACK Picks - Last Night MAC goes 2-1 on MAC ATTACK plays! Hittinb another NHL pick on the under in the Ducks Penguins game (Final 2-3) and smashing another NBA pick on The Hawks + 3 but Missing a fun play parlay - NBA - Miami Heat -4 X CBB - UT Arlington -1 - Look for MAC to get a sweep tonight!
RedAlertWagers.com has revamped the Patreon! - NEW Membership Tiers - $25 1 Month of MAC'S exclusive information personal wagers, what games to move heavy on and what games to move minor on, play and watch how a professional sports betting expert spreads his units, either you're betting with us or just haven't heard The Roland Roarin Mac McGuillaman​ ROAR - Join Now - $25.00 Top Rated + Special Release Action Join the Patreon - Starting @ $7 a month for Premium Red Alert Picks - Or take a 1 day ride with our Instant Access Red Pass - (1 Day Red Pass: $14.99) Red Pass Pay by Phone Access: Call The Red Line - Toll Free @ 1-844-334-2613 Follow Automated Instructions to gain access to our 1 Day Red Pass, once payment verification is confirmed, a access link will be text messaged to your phone, follow the link after payment. (Payments Processed via © Stripe) ****Take a 1 day ride with a RED PASS for $14.99 - All Of Today's Top Rated Plays & Premium Releases - 1 Time Fee - 1 day Access! ****
Not only is Roland calling games like a savage, The Mac is making record breaking earnings in 2020 - Bankroll Action now 8 weeks in the green, getting access to how a professional sports gambler moves units and collects $ consistently - PATREON 2020 DEAL STARTS @ $7.00 - Red Alert Plays
!!TOP RATED PREMIUM PLAYS!! Parlay Builder only at MyBookie
**PREMIUM PLAYS**CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (8:00 - Cleveland State +8.5 vs Wisc Green Bay -8.5) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (8:00 - IPFW +10.5 vs Oral Roberts -10.5) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 29) - (10:00 Pacific -4 vs San Diego +4) CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 29) - (10:00 Montana +2 vs Sacramento State -2)
**DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS**
NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 29) - (Stony Brook -1)NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 29) - (Depaul +8.5) XFL MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 29) - (Seattle Dragons +11.5) **FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS** FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 29) - (NBA - Golden State Warriors +8.5 X NHL - Winnipeg Jets +130)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES** EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO +125) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (NORMA DUMONT +195) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (TOM BREESE -120) RedAlertWagers.com and THE MAC recommend these industry leading sportsbooks!

MyBookie - (50% Sign Up Bonus)

Bovada - (Go double a 50% Welcome Bonus at Bovada)

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info

FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
Patreon.com/MACSPICKS
The MAC'S consensus groups span the nation, today our NCAAB Red Alert CBB Picks make up our card. The RedAlertWagers.com National Consensus groups have been tapping sources, vetting information, and we are getting ready for March Madness.

(FEB 25) MAC GOES 4-0 LAST NIGHT! - TONIGHT'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7!

Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure Tonight!

Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
TONIGHT OUR NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY (FEB 25) - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 goes off at 7:00 EST - Xavier already has 10 losses - this may be a problem for the Musketeers as they attempt to catch the attention of the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Tonight's Big East action will be a important game for Xavier, but Depaul has been waiting to get vengeance after a 59-67 loss to Xavier a few weeks ago. The Depaul Blue Demons (14-13, 2-12 Big East) snuck by Georgetown with the x-factor being Charlie Moore, 20 points & 7 assists. Romeo Weems added 19 points. Paul Reed is coming off a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds + 3 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks, and tonight he will be getting his 17th double-double! Tip off starts at 7:00 - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks!
Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY on the Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 Big East conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball Predictions.
THE MAC HAS HIS RED ALERT PLAY - 7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6
Southeastern prime time game - A Big 10 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats!
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's RED ALERT CBB & NBA Picks are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass! CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (8:00 Drake +7 vs Loyola Chicago -7) NBA RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (10:05 New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers -7.5) CBB MAJOR MOVE ALERT (FEB 25) - (7:00 Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7)
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!

DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS

  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (La Salle +11)
  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (Wyoming +8.5)
  • NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 25) - (Portland Trail Blazers +7.5)
*FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 25) - (NBA - Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 X CBB Wyoming +8.5)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE EASY MONEY HONDA CLASSIC PICK (FEB 27) - (Rickie Fowler +1200) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (NORMA DUMONT +195) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (TOM BREESE -120)
submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsReport [link] [comments]

(FEB 22) - RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 LAST NIGHT + PATREON MEMBERS GET OUR CBB HUSH MONEY TONIGHT!

(FEB 22) - RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 LAST NIGHT + PATREON MEMBERS GET OUR CBB HUSH MONEY TONIGHT!

RedAlertWagers.com

Daily Free MAC ATTACK Plays Below!

Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Become a Member - Join The Patreon - $25 Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS! Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)
Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks
MAC Media: The Reddit Sports Report The Red Alert Report - Fury vs Wilder 2

(FEB 22) TONIGHT'S NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY - 10:00 UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8

Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure Tonight!
Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
TONIGHT OUR NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 22) - UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8 goes off at 10:00 EST - The 13 - 15 Aggies are 8 point underdogs against the 17 - 9 Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos, our Big West interlocutors have graded this game and the Red Alert Wagers Consensus is in. The Aggies are holding 2nd place in the conference @ 7-5 but a 13 - 15 overall record and are 17 - 9 ATS. The Gauchos are hosting the Aggies at the Thunderdome tip off at 10:00 PM EST. Cal Santa Barbara are tied for 3rd with Cal State North Ridge & Hawaii all tied all with 5-5 conference records. Public action is on UC Davis and 41% of the money is coming in on the Gauchos - Join the Patreon to get on the MAC'S Special Release Action - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks!
Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY on the UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8 Big West conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball Predictions.
THE MAC HAS HIS RED ALERT PLAY - 6:00 - LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1 - A Big 5 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats!
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's RED ALERT CBB Picks are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass!
7:00 High Point +7 vs Longwood -7 A low key game with a small audience, MAC has been calling these out of mind plays like a sports gambling mentalist. PLAY: 3 UNITS
*6:00 - LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1 PLAY: 5 UNITS
10:00 EST Santa Clara +5 vs Pacific -5 PLAY: 3 UNITS
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!
THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS GO 3-0 YESTERDAY AND ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - TONIGHT'S RED ALERT - High Point +7 vs Longwood -7 (A low key game + a small audience = CASH $)
\*Premium Plays*\**
NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (High Point +7 vs Longwood -7) NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (Santa Clara +5 vs Pacific -5) NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 22) - (LSU -1 vs South Carolina +1) CBB HUSH MONEY (FEB 22) - (UC DAVIS +8 vs CAL SANTA BARBARA -8)

DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS

NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 22) - (OREGON +4.5) NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 22) - (GONZAGA -5) NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 22) - (DALLAS MAVERICKS -1)
**FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 22) - (NBA - DALLAS MAVERICKS -1 X CBB - GONZAGA -5)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE EASY MONEY BOXING PICK (FEB 22) - (TYSON FURY -105) - Red Alert Report Available (HERE) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+26 (FEB 22) - (PAUL FELDER +115) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+26 (FEB 22) - (EMIL MEEK +195)
More Free Betting Info & Advice available on the RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Blog - RedAlertWagers.com

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

NFL Betting Systems. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we? NFL Spread Bet. The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward. NFL betting trends let you see how North American pro football teams do in specific situations. If you can get your hands on great NFL betting trends (like the ones we feature here), you are giving yourself a huge football betting advantage when it comes to making your picks.. While there are some online sports betting trends that are nothing more than interesting league facts that you can use NFL Football Betting Trends. The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sport among North American bettors, and there are plenty of trends available for the benefit of pro football handicapper. In fact, the sharpest NFL bettors use the massive popularity of the league to isolate winners! About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 175 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news. NFL football 2020 betting predictions, game preview, head to head and stats. Click for our free top NFL football 2020 betting projections, predictions and betting picks.

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