Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. Yesterday In Review: Lineup-
|Name ||Price ||DKP ||Value ||Proj Own ||Real Own ||Diff |
|Kemba Walker ||8600 ||40.5 ||4.7x ||7.5% ||22.7% ||15.2%!! |
|Derrick Rose ||7200 ||9.5 ||1.3x ||5% ||5.7% ||0.7% |
|Kevin Huerter ||4500 ||22.25 ||4.9x ||5% ||3.9% ||1.1% |
|Robert Williams ||3800 ||7.5 ||2x ||5% ||18.8% ||13.8% |
|Julius Randle ||7500 ||34.5 ||4.6x ||34.6% ||1% ||33.6%! |
|Mike Conley ||7900 ||45.75 ||5.8x ||2.4% ||2.5% ||0.1% |
|Pascal Siakam ||6300 ||38 ||6.0x ||10.0% ||19.9% ||9.9%!! |
|Delon Wright ||4100 ||21.5 ||5.2x ||7.5% ||35.8% ||28.3%!!! |
|Total ||49900 ||219.5 ||4.4x || || || |
Entry Fees: $63.75 Winnings: 0 ROI: negative infinity. (Proj Ownership is from RG. Real Ownership is from the $33 GPP on DK) Analysis-
As you can see, I spent 3x what I normally do. I was really happy with this slate. I really liked it. I was confident in people I thought would be low owned (or were reportedly going to be low owned) and boy did it not work for a plethora of reasons. Let’s see what happened and if we can prevent something like this from happening again.
My lineup changed very little from last night, which doesn’t happen very often. I locked in Kemba who, although averaging 14 potential assists a game, wound up with only 5. Also, Marvin Williams decided to have one of the best games of his life, hitting 7 3s taking away a bunch of scoring chances from Kemba. I still like the spot. I don’t think the process that brought me to Kemba was flawed, I just think it didn’t work
Similarly, D-Rose, who wound up only 5.7% owned, was someone who, if he hadn’t gotten injured early with 9.5 DKP, would have had the potential for a 50 DKP game at almost no ownership. Again, in a great personal matchup, in a close game I would have gone back here again if I had to do again.
Another other person I locked in was Robert Williams. This is one that is my fault. Once they announced Ojeleye would play, I became a little worried, but not nearly worried enough about Williams. Unfortunately, I was in the midst of parenting when the alert that Ojeleye was starting and didn’t see it until after Williams got locked in for me. I still think it was a decent punt play, given his recent production, the sparsity of big men for Boston, and the glowing reviews he had been receiving from Kyrie. For some reason, though, Williams was only given 5 minutes in the first half and, from there, the rest of his night fell by the wayside. I wish this was one of the days I was able to do the Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article. I may have been able to stop myself and other people from making this mistake. If you played him because of me and didn’t pivot off, I hope I made it up to you in other ways, or will let me try to on other days.
The last person I had locked in from last night was Mike Conley. The Grizz, who rarely have a decent O/U, were projected over 210 in what was supposed to be a close game. I correctly assumed incredibly low ownership given the fact no one ever rosters him. It was a great matchup, and his usage rate was still taking note of when preparing for this slate. I hope all of you heeded this advice and got him in your lineups (though, given the ownership %, I doubt it).
I had one of my favorites, Myles Turner, locked in from last night. When they announced Randle was going to play, given the O/U and how close that game was, including the insane production increase Randle gets with Mirotic out, I went up from Turner to Randle. While it’s too early to know if this was the right call (editors note- narrator: it wasn't), I am confident I would have made it over again. I want to take this opportunity though, to point out that this was another case for all of you to learn not to listen to ownership projections as gospel (don’t IGNORE them, but learn when and how to use them RIGHT). There were basically 5 players with projections that wound up off by 10% or more. In the case of Randle, it was off by an incredible 33%. If you thought you were going to get him at a low ownership because of this, you hopefully learned this important lesson tonight- trying to be different for the sake of it, or taking worse players cause of ownership projections, is only smart if the projections are RIGHT. There is a reason I have called, and will continue to call, ownership projections the alternative medicine of DFS. It’s something people put too much faith in to the degree some people lose their shirts getting obsessed with being different for differences sake. Luckily, unlike alternative medicine, ownership projections only have the potential to kill your bankroll and not you.
While I was figuring out my last 3 slots, the news broke that Ibaka and Green would be out for Toronto. This let the last 3 slots fill themselves in. I put a far too cheap Siakam and Wright in the lineup which left me 4600 for the SF. Huerter was one of my favorite plays on the day given his ownership, his willingness to put up shots, and the fact the ATL/NYK game was crazy awesome to get players from today.
There were a bevy of players I wished I could have played today. Some balled out (Turner, Nance) and some bombed (Hardaway, Kyrie, LMA), Regardless, apart from being upset about Williams, I am confident I put together some good analysis, made some good calls, and just lost in the end like all of us will from time to time.
I hope you all had better luck than I did tonight!
Let’s get to work on doing better tomorrow right now! The Daily Slate:
Do you like teams playing in back-to-backs? Well have I got a slate for you!! A whopping 11 out of the 14 teams playing tonight are in back-to-back situations. The Clippers, Suns, Wizards, Heat, Mavs, Warriors, and Thunder are on the front end. Raptors, Bucks, Spurs and Jazz are on the back end. Nuggets, Sixers, and Rockets are on their island. With everyone having off on Xmas Eve, I don’t think this is going to be a huge
deal, but I will note that Toronto is travelling from Toronto to Philly for tonight’s game, the Bucks are travelling from Boston to Miami, the Spurs are staying in-state, driving 3 hours from SA to Houston for tonight, and the Jazz are travelling from Portland back home for tonight. I wanted to provide you that information up front so you can think about it in relation to any other specific analysis I provide. That being said, let’s get into it!
Much like TWOGAMESLATE a couple nights ago, tonight is going to come down to one question: Do you dare fade James “Bruce Willis in Die” Harden? There are a TON of GREAT spots on this slate to pay up for. Do we lock in Harden and one other stud and find all the good value we can? Or do we try to get away from the field and develop a more balanced lineup? Or even a different stars/scrubs with other stars? There are perfectly legit arguments to made for both sides of this debate, no matter how loud someone may be, or how emphatic they say things, or how much of an expert they may be at other things (and that includes me). The only 100% honest thing I can say about this is that I truly believe it is going to change from player to player based on a ton of variables: how you play, your DFS philosophy, how comfortable you are with loss/risk, your bankroll, if you are an MME or single entry player, etc.. The best thing you can do for yourself for this and every other issue you have serious long-term questions about
is to open up a Word document in whatever program or on whatever website you use for note-keeping and keep track. Make notes about what you did that day and how it worked out. Take note of the pivots you were thinking of making and if they actually worked or not. Take note of the top scoring lineups and how (and more importantly WHY)
they were constructed differently than yours, and if it was random chance or if it was something you can learn from. It doesn’t have to be every day and about every issue, but if you are curious about, say, how fading the highest scoring player when he is at 50% projected ownership works out then the surest way to do it is keep notes when that situation happens (which is not very often at all). It will give you an edge over the field and, honestly, how can you not take every edge you can take when you’re putting real money on the line?? Please
remember, there are a million ways to have success at everything in this world. Find what works for YOU, not what works for other people (who then insist there’s something wrong with you when it fails for you).
Now let’s get to slate specific business. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Situations to avoid (in no particular order):
- James “Leslie Nielsen in Spy” Harden - it is 3pm right now on Friday afternoon. I got the pain medicine in me so I can function. I have been answering everyone’s comments and DMs and watching my normal morning Awesemo video while putting together my notes for tonight’s games. As of right now there are no games for 28 hours. There aren’t even Vegas lines out yet. But there are a few things I know right now: CP3 is out. James Harden will be the most owned player on the slate. The Spurs are very bad defensively against the guard position. CP3 is out. James Harden has the #1 Usage in the NBA when CP3 is still in the lineup. AND CP3 IS OUT I know no one needs to tell you to start James Harden tonight, but I don’t think anyone is going to be surprised, at all, if no other player winds up within 10 DKP of him tonight.
- DeRozan and LMA- The Rockets are a completely different team without CP3 at the helm. They play faster. Their D gets worse. And, regardless of this, the Rockets are favored by 6 with a decent projected 215.5 total. While it bears noting that the Spurs only seem to win or lose by blowout (seriously. Let’s look at their last few games: 124-98 win. 129-90 win. 123-96 win. 98-93 loss. 125-87 win. 111-86 win. 110-97 win… and so on..), it also means that DeRozan and LMA are in absolutely chop-licking spots. LMA got rested after only 23 minutes due to the blowout, and DeRozan got the Covington treatment and is probably itching to be able to shoot more than 10 times in 32 minutes on the court. Capela is surprisingly terrible at Defense (58th out of 61 centers in DRPM) and won’t hurt LMA’s rebound ceiling as much as a lot of other matchups, not to mention the scoring. DeRozan, when on form, is one of the deadliest shooters in the NBA. There is every chance this game turns into a personal shooting contest between Harden and DeRozan. And perhaps the craziest thing is DeRozan’s price has fallen from 9200 to 7700 in the last 11 days.
- SHOWDOWN SPECIAL Jokic, Murray, and LouWill - Denver is in a massive pace up spot
tonight this afternoon in what will be a close game (LAC -1) with a healthy 218.5 total (though I would bet this goes over 220 before game time.) The Clippers are easiest to attack at PG and C. Jokic is 28th in the NBA in usage and Murray is 49th. With Millsap still out (and assuming Barton and Harris are still out, which they should be), Murray and Jokic have dramatically increased usage and have been smashing lately. On the other side of the ball, LouWill came back from missing a few games with injury and was immediately LouWill, going 9-12 from the floor, adding 7 free throws for a healthy 26 real life points. No one is going to stop him on the other team with Barton and Harris out. Don’t overthink this spot. I just looked and saw this game isn’t even on the main slate. Shit. I’ll have to go back and label it a showdown special or something stupid like that. I’m sure i’ll think of a better name by the time I’m done.
- Suns vs Wizards- Ok. This game is probably my favorite one to stack on the slate. There is so much to love. I’m writing this before the O/Us have come out, but I would be surprised if this wasn’t a close game with a total approaching 230. (editors note- the total came out as 231.5 with WAS at -5) As I’ve previously said, when both defenses are beyond awful, I think the best thing to look at first is usage. Booker has the 5th highest usage in the NBA. Wall is 19th. Beal is 39th. All 3 are in incredible spots for their prices, but my favorite in the game, and one of my favorites on the slate, is Booker who has a great shot at 50 DKP. We also can’t forget that Porter will be out, and Ariza will be playing massive minutes at too cheap a price (he’s still only 5300?!?!) against the team that just traded him away. Also, while Ayton has been hit or miss this year, we can’t ignore just how bad Washington has been against Centers since Howard went down. 7200 is a little more than I like, but you can’t argue with the opportunity and game-specific ceiling. This also makes Holmes a fine punt for the Suns at only 3800.
- Raptors vs. Sixers - Lowry will almost certainly be Out. Kawhi is out. Ibaka is Questionable but missed yesterday. Danny Green is Questionable and missed yesterday. Vegas knows all this and the game still has a projected spread of only PHI -4. I will take notice of the movement of this O/U throughout the day tomorrow, but, if that holds, that makes this game an incredible environment for a bunch of players. FVV, Delon Wright, and Siakam are in absolute smash spots. If we can assume Siakam sees a large chunk of minutes at PF and not against Embiid, we can bump him even further since Philly is, by far, weakest against PF. Another variable here is if Ibaka manages to play. Contrary to what might seem like common sense, I actually like Siakam more if Ibaka plays. Tonight, Siakam got the start at C. He crushed it. But Larry Nance is not Joel Embiid. If Ibaka manages to play, he will play 30+ at center, leaving Siakam to take advantage of the declining D of Chandler and the decent-but-not-special D of Mike Muscala. Now, I will be on Siakam tomorrow anyway (especially at only 6000), I am just saying don’t count him out if Ibaka plays. On the other side of the ball I don’t see how Toronto can keep it close but there is a reason Vegas is what it is. Embiid is under 10k for some reason. He could put up 80 DKP tomorrow. Simmons is under 9k. He could sleepwalk to a triple double. I’d take a look at Muscala at his low price (3600), high PPM, low ownership, and safe minutes in the case this game does actually blow out. One final note, as Josh Engleman has noted several times on his videos, the way the Sixers run Embiid's rotation is he comes in toward the end of the 3rd and stays on through the beginning of the 4th. He will come out for a few minutes and then play the last few minutes of the game. This is worth noting because, in the case of blowouts (now or in the future), Embiid is a little more insulated against losing minutes than most other people who run in a standard rotation.
- Giannis “The Human Pangram” Antetokounmpo - I will start off by saying that I am not a big fan of this game. I think the 215.5 O/U is too high. I think the spread of -2.5 for the Bucks is far too low. The Bucks are the only team who’s schedule and travel concern me, flying from Boston to Miami after last night’s game. The 6th ranked Bucks are in a pace down spot against the 17th ranked Heat. The only active Heat player in the top 50 in usage is Wade, who may not play both games of the back-to-back. All that means one thing to me: Ownership on Giannis is going to be far under what it should be. Miami is by far weakest against PF. He is under 11k on DK for the first time since OPENING NIGHT If you wanna do the stars/scrub thing with Harden, or wanna pivot on what will be insane ownership, this is just too good a spot to pass up. I want to add that, on the other side of the game, I absolute love Derrick Jones, Jr. He’s still under 5k and, if you watched the Heat/Rockets game, you saw a kid playing with confidence, trusted by the coaches and other players on the team, that seems to be coming into his own. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays himself up to 6000 before too long. This is even a stronger spot for the kid if Winslow is ruled out (he is currently questionable)
- Barea and Doncic - Smith has all but been ruled out for tomorrow’s game. Matthews is Questionable and may not play (which would be a huge bump to both). The Warriors are easiest to attack at the guard positions by far, where Doncic and Barea spend their time. This game is projected to blow out with GS -11.5, but that doesn’t mean GS has a 20 point lead going into the 4th and dallas whittles it away. It could be 5 points with 40 seconds left and GS gets fouled 3 times and before you know it, it’s 11 and the game’s over. Doncic is underpriced at 8100 for putting up 52, 53, and 49 DKP his last 3 games. Barea may be one of the most underpriced players on the slate at only 4700. For some reason (probably because he doesn’t start with Doncic getting the PG nod), his ownership hasn’t been where it should be lately. I expect that to continue tonight.
- Donovan “Mellow Yellow” Mitchell - Mitchell went through a stretch of games where he looked like a real Hurdy Gurdy Man, but the last couple games he once again looks like a Sunshine Superman. The game has a healthy 218 total and is a pick ‘em in Vegas, so it’s unlikely a team will Catch the Wind and blow it out, giving the other team a sinking feeling There Is a Mountain to climb. His consistent 7900 price point fell into the 6000s before 2 games ago when Mitchell put up 45.5 DKP. This caused his price to rise to 7400 and he responded by shooting 5-26, including 2-11 from 3. He still stuffed the stat sheet and, despite 6 TOs, managing 36.25 DKP. This is good for us, though, because tonight his price fell back below 7k to 6900 (nice). The Thunder are, by far, weakest against SG. If this game is, indeed, a pick ‘em as vegas says, I would be shocked if it wasn’t on the back of Donovan “Jennifer Juniper” Mitchell.
Situations to monitor:
- The rest of the MIL/MIA game - I explained in the Giannis section why I dislike this game in general. In addition to that, I think everyone is priced fairly. Nothing really stands out as a must play based on potential weakness and how they can be exploited. Richardson is slightly underpriced at 7k and, while I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes for 40DKP, he will most certainly see the stalwart D of Eric Bledsoe. If anything, take a look at DJ Wilson for 3600. Ilyasova probably won’t play again, and Wilson has gotten 24 and 26 minutes the last couple of games, putting up 24 and 19.75 DKP respectively in games that didn't shoot out. They seem to have faith in giving the kid some run to test him out. He basically played the last 10 minutes of the Pels game, bringing him in when the Pels had a 95-90 lead about 1 minute into the 4th quarter. The Bucks responded by going on 2 runs of 11-0 and 11-1 and winning by 8. I don’t know if I’ll be on him, and I know this section is supposed to be about people to avoid, but he is certainly interesting if that’s where your money takes you.
- The rest of the DAL/GS game - Projected to blow out. All the Warriors are healthy, which leads to a “too many cooks” situation. Jordan and Dray’s D’s should help mitigate each other’s potential ceilings. Barnes has taken a back seat and let Doncic shine. I just don’t think there are any other spots here, simply enough.
- The rest of the OKC/UTAH game - When I do my research for the day’s slate, I put together a list of all the players in a particular game that are top 10 at their positions in DRPM. Here is that list for this game: Russ (6-PG), Rubio (10-PG), Donovan (8-SG), PG (2-SF), Ingles (3-SF), Jerami Grant (6-SF), Gobert (1-C). Holy fucking defense, batman. So, basically, thanks but no thanks at almost everyone’s current price point. While Steven Adams wasn’t top 10, he is still a very competent defender and won’t make life for Gobert easy. Although at 7500 it’ll probably be hard not to wind up considering Gobert tonight (who has put up 45.75 and 49.25 in his last 2 games), there are other places I want to spend the money. The only other player in this game with an intriguing price point is Jerami Grant who will be going against the adequate but not spectacular defense of Derrick Favors and who always has the potential to put up a random 35 DKP game at a totally fair (but not spectacular) price of 4600.
- Ibaka Injury, and O/U movement in the TOPHI game
- Winslow’s status in MIL/MIA
- Wes Matthews’ Status
Ok! That does it. I hope we all do better than I did yesterday!
Let’s get rich together tonight!
Dec 8, 2019 - Get a quick preview of the Clippers vs Wizards matchup to gain a betting edge and understand how these teams have been performing. Betting Total: 215.5 points Time (Eastern), TV: 8 p.m. The NBA-worst offense of the Memphis Grizzlies (23-36) will be hard-pressed to keep up with a rested Los Angeles Clippers (32-27) squad on Clippers vs Rockets NBA betting picks and predictions: Clippers bench is the key to this bet Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other The Washington Wizards (6-11) visit the Los Angeles Clippers (14-6) Sunday for a 10:30 p.m. ET tip at the Staples Center. We analyze the Wizards-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup. Covering the SPREAD total will have more than 227 points (OVER)