Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Clippers odds, picks and

bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 22nd and Review of December 21st

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings.
Yesterday In Review:
Name Price DKP Value Proj Own Real Own Diff
Kemba Walker 8600 40.5 4.7x 7.5% 22.7% 15.2%!!
Derrick Rose 7200 9.5 1.3x 5% 5.7% 0.7%
Kevin Huerter 4500 22.25 4.9x 5% 3.9% 1.1%
Robert Williams 3800 7.5 2x 5% 18.8% 13.8%
Julius Randle 7500 34.5 4.6x 34.6% 1% 33.6%!
Mike Conley 7900 45.75 5.8x 2.4% 2.5% 0.1%
Pascal Siakam 6300 38 6.0x 10.0% 19.9% 9.9%!!
Delon Wright 4100 21.5 5.2x 7.5% 35.8% 28.3%!!!
Total 49900 219.5 4.4x
Entry Fees: $63.75 Winnings: 0 ROI: negative infinity.
(Proj Ownership is from RG. Real Ownership is from the $33 GPP on DK)
As you can see, I spent 3x what I normally do. I was really happy with this slate. I really liked it. I was confident in people I thought would be low owned (or were reportedly going to be low owned) and boy did it not work for a plethora of reasons. Let’s see what happened and if we can prevent something like this from happening again.
My lineup changed very little from last night, which doesn’t happen very often. I locked in Kemba who, although averaging 14 potential assists a game, wound up with only 5. Also, Marvin Williams decided to have one of the best games of his life, hitting 7 3s taking away a bunch of scoring chances from Kemba. I still like the spot. I don’t think the process that brought me to Kemba was flawed, I just think it didn’t work
Similarly, D-Rose, who wound up only 5.7% owned, was someone who, if he hadn’t gotten injured early with 9.5 DKP, would have had the potential for a 50 DKP game at almost no ownership. Again, in a great personal matchup, in a close game I would have gone back here again if I had to do again.
Another other person I locked in was Robert Williams. This is one that is my fault. Once they announced Ojeleye would play, I became a little worried, but not nearly worried enough about Williams. Unfortunately, I was in the midst of parenting when the alert that Ojeleye was starting and didn’t see it until after Williams got locked in for me. I still think it was a decent punt play, given his recent production, the sparsity of big men for Boston, and the glowing reviews he had been receiving from Kyrie. For some reason, though, Williams was only given 5 minutes in the first half and, from there, the rest of his night fell by the wayside. I wish this was one of the days I was able to do the Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article. I may have been able to stop myself and other people from making this mistake. If you played him because of me and didn’t pivot off, I hope I made it up to you in other ways, or will let me try to on other days.
The last person I had locked in from last night was Mike Conley. The Grizz, who rarely have a decent O/U, were projected over 210 in what was supposed to be a close game. I correctly assumed incredibly low ownership given the fact no one ever rosters him. It was a great matchup, and his usage rate was still taking note of when preparing for this slate. I hope all of you heeded this advice and got him in your lineups (though, given the ownership %, I doubt it).
I had one of my favorites, Myles Turner, locked in from last night. When they announced Randle was going to play, given the O/U and how close that game was, including the insane production increase Randle gets with Mirotic out, I went up from Turner to Randle. While it’s too early to know if this was the right call (editors note- narrator: it wasn't), I am confident I would have made it over again. I want to take this opportunity though, to point out that this was another case for all of you to learn not to listen to ownership projections as gospel (don’t IGNORE them, but learn when and how to use them RIGHT). There were basically 5 players with projections that wound up off by 10% or more. In the case of Randle, it was off by an incredible 33%. If you thought you were going to get him at a low ownership because of this, you hopefully learned this important lesson tonight- trying to be different for the sake of it, or taking worse players cause of ownership projections, is only smart if the projections are RIGHT. There is a reason I have called, and will continue to call, ownership projections the alternative medicine of DFS. It’s something people put too much faith in to the degree some people lose their shirts getting obsessed with being different for differences sake. Luckily, unlike alternative medicine, ownership projections only have the potential to kill your bankroll and not you.
While I was figuring out my last 3 slots, the news broke that Ibaka and Green would be out for Toronto. This let the last 3 slots fill themselves in. I put a far too cheap Siakam and Wright in the lineup which left me 4600 for the SF. Huerter was one of my favorite plays on the day given his ownership, his willingness to put up shots, and the fact the ATL/NYK game was crazy awesome to get players from today.
There were a bevy of players I wished I could have played today. Some balled out (Turner, Nance) and some bombed (Hardaway, Kyrie, LMA), Regardless, apart from being upset about Williams, I am confident I put together some good analysis, made some good calls, and just lost in the end like all of us will from time to time.
I hope you all had better luck than I did tonight!
Let’s get to work on doing better tomorrow right now!
The Daily Slate:
Do you like teams playing in back-to-backs? Well have I got a slate for you!! A whopping 11 out of the 14 teams playing tonight are in back-to-back situations. The Clippers, Suns, Wizards, Heat, Mavs, Warriors, and Thunder are on the front end. Raptors, Bucks, Spurs and Jazz are on the back end. Nuggets, Sixers, and Rockets are on their island. With everyone having off on Xmas Eve, I don’t think this is going to be a huge deal, but I will note that Toronto is travelling from Toronto to Philly for tonight’s game, the Bucks are travelling from Boston to Miami, the Spurs are staying in-state, driving 3 hours from SA to Houston for tonight, and the Jazz are travelling from Portland back home for tonight. I wanted to provide you that information up front so you can think about it in relation to any other specific analysis I provide. That being said, let’s get into it!
Much like TWOGAMESLATE a couple nights ago, tonight is going to come down to one question: Do you dare fade James “Bruce Willis in Die” Harden? There are a TON of GREAT spots on this slate to pay up for. Do we lock in Harden and one other stud and find all the good value we can? Or do we try to get away from the field and develop a more balanced lineup? Or even a different stars/scrubs with other stars? There are perfectly legit arguments to made for both sides of this debate, no matter how loud someone may be, or how emphatic they say things, or how much of an expert they may be at other things (and that includes me). The only 100% honest thing I can say about this is that I truly believe it is going to change from player to player based on a ton of variables: how you play, your DFS philosophy, how comfortable you are with loss/risk, your bankroll, if you are an MME or single entry player, etc.. The best thing you can do for yourself for this and every other issue you have serious long-term questions about is to open up a Word document in whatever program or on whatever website you use for note-keeping and keep track. Make notes about what you did that day and how it worked out. Take note of the pivots you were thinking of making and if they actually worked or not. Take note of the top scoring lineups and how (and more importantly WHY) they were constructed differently than yours, and if it was random chance or if it was something you can learn from. It doesn’t have to be every day and about every issue, but if you are curious about, say, how fading the highest scoring player when he is at 50% projected ownership works out then the surest way to do it is keep notes when that situation happens (which is not very often at all). It will give you an edge over the field and, honestly, how can you not take every edge you can take when you’re putting real money on the line??
Please remember, there are a million ways to have success at everything in this world. Find what works for YOU, not what works for other people (who then insist there’s something wrong with you when it fails for you).
Now let’s get to slate specific business.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Situations to avoid (in no particular order):
Situations to monitor:
Ok! That does it. I hope we all do better than I did yesterday!
Let’s get rich together tonight!
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Dec 8, 2019 - Get a quick preview of the Clippers vs Wizards matchup to gain a betting edge and understand how these teams have been performing. Betting Total: 215.5 points Time (Eastern), TV: 8 p.m. The NBA-worst offense of the Memphis Grizzlies (23-36) will be hard-pressed to keep up with a rested Los Angeles Clippers (32-27) squad on Clippers vs Rockets NBA betting picks and predictions: Clippers bench is the key to this bet Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other The Washington Wizards (6-11) visit the Los Angeles Clippers (14-6) Sunday for a 10:30 p.m. ET tip at the Staples Center. We analyze the Wizards-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup. Covering the SPREAD total will have more than 227 points (OVER)

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