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DAILY FREE SPORTS PICKS FROM VERNON CROY WHO IS ONE OF THE BEST BETTING EXPERTS IN THE WORLD!

DAILY FREE SPORTS PICKS FROM VERNON CROY WHO IS ONE OF THE BEST BETTING EXPERTS IN THE WORLD! submitted by freenflpicks to u/freenflpicks [link] [comments]

Any thoughts on 2020 Draft Grizzlies Pick Prospect ? Can we find a star bet ?

Hello everyone ! I want to talk about 2020 Draft Grizzlies Pick or Celtics, Bucks Pick Prospect . In the past few years we can notice Danny Ainge sometimes bets on some declining former lottery hot and even once expected to be the top 5. Just like Jared Sullinger, Robert Williams and Romeo Langford.
Let’s assume that our goal is to win the champion in the future. So who do you think the 2020 Draft Grizzlies pick can be a star bet ? Maybe he will be our future starter. First we know Jaylen Brown already has a long contract, Jayson Tatum also is almost there. My thoughts is because our SG & SF ( or SF & PF ) already determined. So what remaining has the possible opportunity to compete for the starter are PG, another Wing, PF and C in the next five years. Of course, Romeo Langford and Robert Williams also have a chance to rise, they seem to be one of the most talented people if they develop smoothly.
Let's try to find rookie with star potential. I want to ask everyone how do you think these young people ? According to 2019 EPSN Top 100 Ranking : #5 RJ Hampton - PG 6'5" 185 lbs NZ Breakers Age 19.4 Comparisons : OJ Mayo, Jamal Murray / Will Barton, Dante Exum #6 Vernon Carey Jr. - C 6'10" 270 lbs Duke Age 19.3 Comparisons : Domantas Sabonis / Al Jefferson, Jared Sullinger #7 Jaden McDaniels - PF 6'10" 200 lbs Washington Age 19.7 Comparisons : Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Michael Porter Jr. / Jonathan Isaac, Danilo Gallinari, Otto Porter, Rashard Lewis, Andrew Wiggins, Nemanja Bjelica ( I don't know why so many ) #28 Patrick Williams - SF 6'8" 225 lbs Florida State Age 18.8 Comparisons : Kawhi Leonard / Danilo Gallinari, PJ Tucker, Chris Singleton #49 Zeke Nnaji - PF 6'11" 240 lbs Arizona Age 19.5 Comparisons : Ersan Ilyasova, Meyers Leonard, Channing Frye / PJ Brown, Jordan Hill Other international Players : Aleksej Pokuševski - PF 7'0" 200 lbs Serbia Age 18.5 Comparisons : Kristaps Porzingis, Lauri Markkanen / Lamar Odom, Dragan Bender Theo Maledon - PG 6'4" 175 lbs France Age 19 Comparisons : Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder / Kirk Hinrich, Frank Ntilikina Leandro Bolmaro - SG 6'7" 180 lbs Argentina Age 19.8 Comparisons : Manu Ginobili / Joe Ingles, Evan Turner, Tomas Satorasnky
Who is your star bet in 2020 draft ? Not limited to these people, welcome to add other options.
submitted by Pareo141 to bostonceltics [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 17 - Philadelphia Eagles(8-7) at New York Giants (4-11)

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at New York Giants(4-11)
While I think Godfather 3 is a terrible movie, I think a line from Al Pacino’s Michael Corleone sums up my feelings best with his line in the movie, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”. And much like that scene it may give me a heart attack in the end, but right now the Eagles control their own destiny. The only thing standing in their way is their division rival the 4-11 New York Giants. While the Eagles have won their last six meetings against their division rival, many of those games have come down to the final minutes and seconds, I think we can expect the same this week as the Eagles will be without Zach Ertz this week and Carson Wentz will once again be throwing to backups. He will get some help in the backfield with Jordan Howard returning to the lineup for the first time in a couple weeks giving the Eagles a true powerback to compliment Miles Sanders. Don’t be surprised to see the Eagles rely on the run this week to get the win against their division rival on the road. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Date
Sunday, December 29th, 2019
Game Time Game Location
4:25 PM - Eastern MetLife Stadium
3:25 PM - Central 1 MetLife Stadium Dr
2:25 AM - Mountain East Rutherford, NJ 07073
1:25 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 44°F
Feels Like: 42°F
Forecast: Mostly Cloudy. Partly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 84%
Wind: South Southeast 3 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Philadelphia -4
OveUnder: 45
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 6-9, Giants 7-8
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Thom Brennaman will handle play-by-play duties and Chris Speilman will provide analysis. Shannon Spake will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 17 TV Coverage Map
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (42nd season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Giants Radio
Giants Radio Network Bob Papa (play-by-play), Carl Banks (analyst), Howard Cross (sidelines).
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game to a national audience with Eli Gold on play-by-play and Doug Plank providing analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Giants Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 138 (Internet 825) SIRI 83 (Internet 822)
XM Radio Internet 825 XM 226(Internet 822)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 381 (Internet 825) SXM 226 (Internet 822)
Eagles Social Media Giants Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: newyorkgiants
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 8-7 .417 5-3 3-4 4-1 6-5 351 337 +14 3W
Cowboys 7-8 .462 4-3 3-5 4-1 6-5 387 305 +82 1L
Giants 4-11 .267 2-5 2-6 2-3 3-8 324 417 -93 2W
Redskins 3-12 .200 1-7 2-5 0-5 2-9 250 388 -38 3L
Series Information
Philadelphia Eagles lead series (87-86-2)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
October 15th, 1933 at the Polo Grounds in Upper Manhattan, New York, NY. New York Giants 56 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The New York Giants lead the Philadelphia Eagles (3393-3351)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 6-1 vs. the New York Giants
Pat Shurmur: 0-4 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Pat Shurmur: Pederson leads 3-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Giants: 5-1
Daniel Jones: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Daniel Jones: First Meeting between QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Giants: 11-6
Record @ MetLife Stadium: Eagles lead the Giants: 6-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Giants No. 28
Record
Eagles: 8-7
Giants: 4-11
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/9/19 Eagles Giants 23-17
11/25/18 Eagles Giants 25-23
10/11/18 Eagles Giants 34-13
12/30/17 Eagles Giants 34-29
09/24/17 Eagles Giants 27-24
12/22/16 Eagles Giants 24-19
11/06/16 Giants Eagles 28-23
01/03/16 Eagles Giants 35-30
10/19/15 Eagles Giants 27-7
12/28/14 Eagles Giants 34-26
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Giants Giants
2019 “Expert” Picks
Week 17 - "Expert" Picks
2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Giants Season Stats
2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 365 567 64.4% 3750 26 7 93.4
Jones 256 412 62.1% 2726 23 11 88.9
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 170 766 51.1 4.5 3
Barkley 200 911 75.5 4.6 5
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz(not playing) 88 916 61.1 10.4 6
Goedert 54 542 38.9 10.0 5
Slayton 44 690 53.1 15.7 8
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 7.5 39
Golden 10.0 35
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Jenkins 72 55 17 2.5
Bethea 104 76 28 0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Darby/Gerry/McLeod 2 10
Jenkins(no longer on team) 4 10
Connelly 2 10
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 64 2989 61 46.7 42.6 25 4 0
Dixon 63 2921 62 46.4 42.3 26 2 2
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 24 20 83.3% 53 31/33
Rosas 16 11 68.8% 45 33/37
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Sanders 14 314 22.4 67 0
Latimer 20 472 23.6 50 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Scott 6 43 7.2 13 0 4
Jones 8 12.0 60.0 2
League Rankings 2019
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Total Offense 358.1 13th 334.6 23rd
Rush Offense 121.2 12th 104.2 20th
Pass Offense 236.9 12th 230.4 19th
Points Per Game 23.4 15th 21.6 19th
3rd-Down Offense 46.7% 2nd 37.8% 18th
4th-Down Offense 31.8% 28th 44.4% 19th(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 66.0% 4th(t) 60% 11th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Total Defense 327.3 9th 375.8 24th
Rush Defense 88.0 3rd 112.7 19th
Pass Defense 239.3 17th 263.1 26th
Points Per Game 22.5 16th 27.8 29th
3rd-Down Defense 34.4% 4th 40.8% 21st
4th-Down Defense 64.3% 30th 58.3% 24th(t)
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 58.5% 19th 56.0% 12th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Turnover Diff. -5 21st(t) -15 30th
Penalty Per Game 6.2 7h 5.7 3rd
Penalty Yards Per Game 52.1 8th 49.1 5th
Connections
Giants HC Pat Shurmur previously worked for the Eagles in two stints from 1999-2008 as the OL/TE coach and QB coach and again as the the OC/interim HC from 2013-2015.
Giants LB Coach Bill McGovern previously worked for the Eagles from 2013-2015 as the outside linebacker coach.
Giants FS Sean Chandler was born in Camden and played at Temple.
Eagles OL coach Jeff Stoutland (New York, NY) and S Malcolm Jenkins (Piscataway, NJ) are from the New York/New Jersey region
Giants DL Coach Gary Emmanuel was born in Philadelphia, PA.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders and Giants RB Saquan Barkley both played RB together at PSU with Sanders backing up Barkely.
Giants WR Golden Tate played half a season with the Eagles in 2018 after being traded by the Lions.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Giants
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
General
Referee: Alex Kemp
Philadelphia has won each of its last 6 regular season games against the Giants.
Since 2000, Philadelphia has produced a 26-13 regular-season record vs. NYG, which marks the highest winning percentage (.667) by an NFC East team against the Giants in that span
The Eagles are ranked 2nd in the NFL in time of possession (32:53).
Draft Picks
Eagles Giants
OT Andre Dillard QB Daniel Jones
RB Miles Sanders DT Dexter Lawrenece
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside CB Deandre Baker
WR Shareff Miller LB Oshane Ximines
QB Clayton Thorson CB Julian Love
LB Ryan Connelly
WR Darius Slayton
LB Cory Ballentine
OT George Asafo-Adjei
DT Chris Slayton
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Giants
WR Desean Jackson SS Antoine Bethea
DT Malik Jackson FS Jabrill Peppers
DE Vinny Curry G Kevin Zeitler
DT Hassan Ridgeway OT Mike Remmers
QB Josh McCown LB Keion Adams
TE Isaiah Searight
LB David Mayo
DE Chris Peace
LB Deone Bucannon
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Giants
QB “Big Dick” Nick Foles WR Odell Beckham Jr.
DE Michael Bennett S Landon Collins
DE Chris Long DE Olivier Vernon
S Chris Maragos LB Nate Stupar
RB Jay Ajayi RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Josh Adams G Jamon Brown
RB Wendell Smallwood DE Mario Edwards Jr.
DT Haloti Ngata DE Kevin Wynn
DE Josh Mauro
CB B.W Webb
LB BJ Goodson
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 4 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 250 yards to become the first Eagles QB to throw for 4000 yards in a season.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 167 yards to break Donovan McNabb’s record for most passing yards in a season by an Eagle.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 82 yards for a new career high in passing yards in a season.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 15 completions to break his Eagles record for most completions in a season.
Eagles S Malcolm Jenkins's (4) needs 1 more Interception for a TD to tie CB Eric Allen (5) for most Interceptions for a TD by an Eagles player.
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (50) needs 1 sack to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Greg Brown.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley need 89 yards for 1000 yards on the season.
Stats to Know
Deep Passing
On the season, these two teams have been rather unimpressive in the deep passing game, although there should be a distinction made between Manning and Jones at the helm for the Giants. In his 4 games this season, Eli has actually been near tops in the league of deep passing % (8th, at 13.6%), 5th in Adjusted Completion % (50%)—which accounts for drops—but 18th in Passer Rating at 89.6, which is to say that the fault has largely been on the receivers. Meanwhile, Jones falls at 26th in Deep Passing % (10.2%) 26th in Adjusted Completion % (35.7%), and 23rd in Passer Rating on Deep Balls (77.1). For the Eagles, Wentz comes in at 20th in Deep Passing % (12.0%), 12th in Adjusted Completion % (44.1%), and 26th in Passer Rating on Deep Balls (71.9), where the disparity between AC% and Passer Rating would indicate receiver fault, as well.
Matchups to Watch
Daniel Jones vs the Eagles Pass Rush
Last time these two teams faced off it was Eli Manning at the helm due to Jone’s ankle injury, but Jones returned last week to lead the Giants to a victory over the Redskins. The final game of his rookie season will be his first introduction to Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham whom have been a thorn in the side of Eli Manning since each have entered the league. Manning has responded by getting the ball out quickly and frequently checking the ball out to safety valves. It will be interesting to see what Jones does in his first game against the Eagles. Jones holds the ball a full .2 of a second longer than Manning on average and the 11th longest in the league tied with Josh Allen who the Eagles terrorized and sacked 4 times in their meeting earlier this season. If the Eagles pass rush starts getting to Jones early it could be a long day for the rookie especially if he starts turning the ball over.
The Giants secondary vs the Eagles Passing attack
The Eagles will again be out their top 3 wide receivers again as Jeffrey and Jackson are on the IR and Nelson Agholor has been ruled out again. This week Wentz will also be without his top target Zach Ertz who has been ruled out with a chest injury. Wentz was able to carry the team last week against another division rival in the Cowboys throwing for 319 yards and a TD passing to backup TE Dallas Goedert who was Wentz’s top target with 91 yards. Look for Wentz to lean on Goedert again along with Greg Ward who has been become a favorite and reliable target for Wentz since being brought up from the Practice Squad. The Giants have the 26th ranked passing defense and Wentz was able to pick them apart 3 weeks ago when he threw for 325 yards and 2 TDs in a similar situation with backups. He should be able to have a similar performance this week especially if he can get some help with the return of power back Jordan Howard, to help keep the Giants pass rush honest.
Jim Schwartz vs himself
Last week the Eagles defense was superb in shutting down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Schwartz went away from many of his tendencies. Rather than leaving his corners in cover-1 the entire game he mixed up coverages and utilized some stunts on the DL along with some well timed blitzes to keep Prescott uncomfortable. If Schwartz can employ a similar game plan against Jones it should lead to a win for the Eagles. However, time and time again after putting up a good game plan one week Schwartz slips back into his affinity for Cover-1 and hoping his DL can line up and beat their guys. If Schwartz falls back to this like he did in many of the losses this season Jones may end up with season highs in yards just like Fitzpatrick did this season for Miami where he picked apart Schwartz’s Cover-1 scheme. Let’s hope that is not the case and he and put the Eagles defensive players in the best position to make plays and win the game.
Special thanksabenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
submitted by Rsubs33 to eagles [link] [comments]

Week 15 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3 (DFAroto)

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26

Jaguars

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.

Raiders

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23

Browns

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.

Cardinals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25

Falcons

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.

49ers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75

Rams

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.

Cowboys

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5

Vikings

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.

Chargers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25

Colts

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.

Saints

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
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Welcome Liam, Policing, Centre Plan Package B, Coronavirus Update #29

Welcome Liam, Policing, Centre Plan Package B, Coronavirus Update #29
Hi all,
I wanted to share some changes in our (virtual) City Hall office. As you know since Melody got promoted I’ve had Lucille Walsh filling in with Laura Nooyen covering at patches as my Constituency Coordinator.
Lucille said goodbye to us the week before last, and went back to retirement, she says for real this time but that is not a bet I would place money on! I wish her all the best and will miss her, and I am sure Laura is relieved that a new permanent staffer has been hired.
I am very pleased to announce that my new Constituency Coordinator is Liam MacSween. Many of you know Liam from the Municipal Clerk’s Office, where he has been had a number of high profile roles. He was my coordinator for a time when I chaired a standing committee, and I could not be more pleased to have Liam as council support staff.
Liam can be reached at 902-490-2012 or by email at[ [email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Liam was hired just in time because I am taking a week off to recharge, do some work on the house, and spend time with my family. I will be out of the office Monday June 15 , though Friday June 20 inclusive I will be unable to checking emails or voice mails.
If you need assistance please contact Liam for any pressing issues, otherwise call 311 for routine municipal matters. In an emergency always call 911.
There will be no newsletter next week while I am away.
Policing
I would like to thank you all for your emails and phone calls over the last few weeks regarding policing, community safety, and the armored recovery vehicle.
This is just another waypoint on a long journey towards justice and safe communities in HRM. I promised at that last Council meeting I will bring a notice of motion on June 23 regarding some of the many issues that have been raised in the last few weeks.
I want to assure you that this is not a kneejerk reaction, nor is it too little too late. Halifax as a community has been on a path for some time toward reforming policing and community safety. In addition to the Wortley report on street checks, there were many recommendations in the 2013 Clairmont report on public safety.
We have well reasoned, researched and community consulted reports that have been guiding us for some time, but what is clear is we need to move more quickly and move from study and small steps to broader actions and concrete changes.
It is true we have faced documented cases of systemic racism and bias in policing in Halifax, this cannot be denied. It is also true that our senior police leadership has supported for decades a community-based approach to addressing the roots of crime, as well as mental health team types response as an alternative to the police response. It is also true that the police are members of this community and the majority of officers want to see these issues of trust and bias addressed.
All this is to say this will not be easy but the work we are about to undertake the next months and years is important, it will be difficult, and is absolutely necessary if we want a community where all members have equal justice under the law.
I wanted to share with you this video – Mayor Mike Savage Addresses Anti-Black Racism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=m_QbwwYbLDE&feature=emb_title
Centre Plan Package B
Package B is the part of Centre Plan that says what can be built in the neighbourhoods full of wood-framed single-family homes and multi-units. It also talks about the industrial, park, institutional zones, but a huge issue will be “what is R1 and R2 going to change into?” So for many of you, this will be the change that says what your neighbors might be able to do for the foreseeable future. So it is really important to get involved, especially as a homeowner.
Staff are launching a series of online surveys to gather feedback on the draft Centre Plan – Package B documents. As you know, the Municipality suspended all Centre Plan in-person public engagement activities based on public health recommendations around physical distancing and it remains unclear at this time when it will be safe to resume public meetings. In the meantime, staff are enhancing on-line engagement opportunities by promoting a series of surveys.
The surveys represent the key themes in Centre Plan Package B. Members of the public can complete all surveys, or select those of greatest interest to them. Each survey contains some background information, but for those who wish to dig-in deeper we also included links to an introductory video, additional summary fact sheets, presentations, an interactive map, and the full planning documents.
The surveys can be accessed from the Centre Plan webpage at www.centreplan.ca. Any questions can be directed to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) or 311. The surveys will be open until August 31st.
Roadworks
The following street closures or sidewalk disruptions have recently been added to the RoadWorks map in or near your district • TOWER RD from SOUTH ST to INGLIS ST, starting on 2020-06-04 • PEPPERELL ST from VERNON ST to ROBIE ST, starting on 2020-06-13 • TOWER RD from SOUTH ST to INGLIS ST, starting on 2020-06-09 • STUDLEY AVE from SOUTH ST to OAKLAND RD, starting on 2020-06-11 • STUDLEY AVE from SOUTH ST to OAKLAND RD, starting on 2020-06-15
You can find out road closure details on the HRM Roadworks map:[ https://www.halifax.ca/transportation/streets-sidewalks/RoadWorks](http://%20https//www.halifax.ca/transportation/streets-sidewalks/RoadWorks)

Coronavirus Update #29 – Masks, Summer Programs & Rec, Still Looking for Lifeguards, Playgrounds, More Slow Streets

Modified Summer Camps update
Pending the confirmation of recreation safety measures provided by public health, the municipality is planning to offer modified summer day camps beginning July 13 through to August 28. Once public health guidelines for day camps are confirmed and the municipality’s plans meet those requirements, camps will be offered at select facilities during the following sessions:
Weekday mornings camp: one week of three-hour morning sessions from 9 a.m. to noon.
Or
Weekday afternoons camp: one week of three-hour afternoon sessions from 1:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.
The half-day camp option allows the municipality to maximize the number of participants while following public health protocol and ensuring safe physical distancing. More information on registration and summer camp details will be issued in the coming days once guidelines have been set by public health.
Most camp activities will be provided in an outdoor setting to help maintain provincial physical distancing protocol. If the weather does not permit outdoor activities, then camps will be moved indoors, unless it has been designated as an exclusively outdoor camp.
Camps are planned for children between the ages of six and 12.
Please note: Camps for pre-school aged children will not be offered this summer due to difficulty enforcing physical distancing requirements for this age group. Virtual opportunities will be available for youth (aged 13-24) during the summer. These opportunities will include but are not limited to: employment skills (preparing your resumé), conversations on the environment, conversations on the upcoming municipal election, and the youth services plan committee. The Youth Leadership program will not be offered this summer due to group gathering requirements and health restrictions.
Recreation facilities
  • Municipal partner recreation facilities (i.e. Canada Games Centre, Cole Harbour Place, Halifax Forum, St. Margaret’s Centre, RBC Centre, Zatzman Sportsplex, etc.) are beginning to reopen to members and clients over the coming weeks.
  • Other facilities will open in the coming weeks as reopening plans are finalized.
  • Please contact each facility directly for information about their opening dates and new procedures.
In addition to planning for day camps, the municipality will be offering additional drop-in recreation opportunities for children and parents/guardians:
REC Van
  • The REC Van is filled with equipment for activities and sports, bringing free recreation straight to local parks and green spaces.
  • This year, the REC Van is being expanded to two vehicles running throughout the municipality.
  • All equipment will be thoroughly cleaned after each use.
  • Schedule information will be updated in the coming weeks on www.halifax.ca/recreation/programs-activities/rec-van
Outdoor recreation – Adventure Earth Centre
  • The Adventure Earth Centre will be offering a number of outdoor programs to encourage residents to get outside, including Guided Adventure Trail Walks, ‘Hug a Tree’ safety-based training, a drop-in ‘Learn-to-fish’ program and a variety of other outdoor activities.
  • These programs will be offered in a variety of different locations throughout the region.
  • More information will be updated in the coming weeks on https://www.halifax.ca/recreation/facilities-fields/rec-centres/adventure-earth-centre
Still Looking for Lifeguards – extended to June 15
HRM is currently recruiting for qualified Beach Lifeguards for supervised beaches throughout the municipality. If you have the following qualifications, you are encouraged to apply:
  • National Lifeguard Service Award, Standard First Aid, CPR
  • Certified in NLS Waterfront
  • Certified in AED
Please visit our website to apply: https://www.halifax.ca/about-halifax/employment/work-halifax-regional-municipality. Applications will be received up to midnight, June 15th.
Playgrounds
Playgrounds continue to be closed by Provincial order. If the tape has been removed, it was not by HRM staff. I know it is hard but keeping those surfaces clean is pretty much impossible, so continue to keep your kids off the playgrounds. Provincial restrictions here: https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/what-it-means-for-nova-scotians/#recreation-restrictions
More Slow Streets
As part of Phase Two of our COVID-19 Mobility Response, “slow streets” are being installed along a number of streets in central Halifax/old North End from Cogswell to Almon. The streets will be announced later next week.
In addition, the widening on Spring Garden has been returned (it was removed for the protest) and Argyle has been closed to cars for the rest of the summer. Thank you to Paul MacKinnon at Downtown Halifax and the area businesses for supporting the closure.
When you get down there, you will see a really remarkable change to the building with Durty Nelly’s in it. Here is a really stunning before and after shot that lets you see the restoration of the mid-century modern building exterior, with a new facade on the bar that I think looks great. Thanks to everyone involved in these projects:

![img](kodsqq1pzi451 "Before ")
After
Measures put in place as part of Halifax’ Mobility Response Plan (Slow Streets, expanded sidewalks) have been added to our RoadWorks map – they are the streets / areas marked in orange: http://halifax.ca/roadworks
Do you have an idea for additional actions to help residents move safely through the region? Drop a pin on the map https://shapeyourcityhalifax.ca/mobilityresponse & tell us why you think adaptations are needed. Your valuable feedback will help staff determine the next steps for making temp changes to streets.
submitted by wayemason to halifax [link] [comments]

100+ Matchup Notes for Week 16

Houston Texans (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 49.5) Matchup Notes:
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5) (O/U 37.5) Matchup Notes:
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) (O/U 45) Matchup Notes:
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2) (O/U 42.5) Matchup Notes:
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1) (O/U 47) Matchup Notes:
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (O/U 50.5) Matchup Notes:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at New York Jets (O/U 37.5) Matchup Notes:
Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns (O/U 48) Matchup Notes:
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) (O/U 46) Matchup Notes:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7) (O/U 46) Matchup Notes:
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) (O/U 46) Matchup Notes:
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5) (O/U 38.5) Matchup Notes:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) (O/U 50.5) Matchup Notes:
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 46.5) Matchup Notes:
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Chicago Bears (O/U 44.5) Matchup Notes:
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) (O/U 45.5) Matchup Notes:
Hey, all! Here are the weekly matchup notes pulled from the Weekly NFL Pick’em article at FantasyData.com! I’ll actually be covering Week 17 as well as all playoff games so we can keep these rolling through the Super Bowl for those playing DFS or into sports betting. Good luck this weekend!
submitted by FantasyFerguson to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

(DFAroto) Week 12 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 1

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-3

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4)

Colts ATS: 5-4-1 Texans ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 20.75 Texans 24.75

Colts

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Lonnie Johnson (OUT) S Justin Reid (OUT) S Mike Adams (OUT) S Tashaun Gipson (Q) CB Bradly Roby (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND): RB Marlon Mack (OUT) WR Parris Campbell (OUT) WR T.Y. Hilton (Q) TE Mo Alie-Cox (Q) TE Eric Ebron (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): T.Y. Hilton (25%) Eric Ebron (14%) Zach Pascal (12%) Jack Doyle (12%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Chester Rodgers (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jonathan Williams (47%, 14, 1) Nyheim Hines (36%, 6, 4) Marlon Mack (32%, 14, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Colt’s just keep on rolling, and those of you who listen to the Bill Simmons Podcast will recognize the Ewing Theory; it occurs whenever a team inexplicably gets better after the departure of their star player. Now, we can’t ever know if the Colts are actually better without Andrew Luck, but sitting tied atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans surely backs this theory up. Jacoby Brissett (upgrade) has been very good this year, throwing for 1,797-yards and 15 touchdowns, sporting a QBR of 51.7, which places him right behind Tom Brady - good for 16th best in the NFL. The Texans have been much better against the run than the pass this year, and were torn apart by Lamar Jackson last week (but who hasn’t been?), so look for IND to attack through the air. Brissett gets a slight upgrade in this good matchup, but he’s still better suited for 2 QB formats - although HOU does give up 21.6 FPPG to QBs, plus 26.1 to wideouts, making it an enticing matchup.
T.Y Hilton (upgrade) participated in today's walkthrough and is expected to make his return from a calf injury, his involvement further upgrades Brissett while downgrading the Colts auxiliary passing options. Zach Pascal, Chester Rodgers and Marcus Johnson are all shaky options with Hilton back, and none are recommended plays. Pascal is the best bet, but he has disappointed in recent weeks without Hilton, posting 2-26-0 and 2-17-0 receiving lines the last two weeks. Eric Ebron is also expected to suit up, relegating Jack Doyle to a low-floor TE2. Both tight ends have a habit of sapping each other’s value, but Ebron is the preferred play due to his nose for finding the endzone.
RB Breakdown
Stud running back Marlon Mack (OUT) broke his hand last week against the Jaguars and is expected to miss several weeks. That leaves Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines to shoulder the load. Many including us thought that Wilkins was the true handcuff to Mack, but as fate would have it, Wilkins was inactive due to injury when Mack went down, allowing Williams to break out. The backfield situation is now one to avoid, as it’s fully expected to be a three headed RBBC, with Wilkins and Williams splitting early down work, with Hines eating up the passing-catching work. The matchup isn’t a good one either, as HOU is ranked top-10 in Run DVOA and gives up 18.5 FPPG to RBs. It’s best to take a wait and see approach with these running backs to see if one breaks out above the rest.
Update
The Colts are going with Jonathan Williams (stash) as the starter for tonight's game, giving him more appeal than the other two options. That being said, it's extremely difficult to know if that means he'll be given the bulk of the early down work or if he's a starter in name only. Proceed with caution but definitely stash him if you can.

Texans

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (IND) Run DVOA:#23
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND): S Khari Willis (OUT) CB Shakial Taylor (OUT) CB Rock Ya-Sin (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (31%) Will Fuller (21%) Kenny Stills (14%) Keke Coutee (12%) Duke Johnson (10%) Darren Fells (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Duke Johnson (59%, 8, 2) Carlos Hyde (34%, 9, 1) Buddy Howell (7%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
I’ll be the first to admit that we got our score prediction wrong regarding the Texans/Ravens last week, at the very least we expected a close game, not the absolute spanking the Ravens delivered. The matchup doesn’t get easier this week; last time these two teams played, Deshaun Watson (downgrade) threw for 308-yards and a touchdown, but also tossed a pair of interceptions and ran for just 32-yards. Fantasy owners can’t justify sitting a quarterback of Watson’s caliber, but it’s best to keep expectations in check - IND allows just 16.3 FPPG to QBs and 21.7 FPPG to WRs.
Despite having a down year, DeAndre Hopkins aka Nuk, is the WR9 in PPR formats. He just isn’t having the explosion games we’ve become so accustomed to. He’s killed the Colts in the past and is due a big game, continue to get him active in all lineups. Will Fuller is expected to play but make sure he’s active before the game starts, and if he returns, this will bump Keke Coutee to the bench. The last time all the wideouts were healthy it was Kenny Stills in the slot, with Fuller and Nuk on the outside (Rotoworld). Either way, if Fuller is active both he and Stills are boom-or-bust WR4 options. They likely need to hit on a deep ball to find any value. Coutee shouldn’t be in any lineups irregardless of Fuller playing. Both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins remain involved in the offense, draining both of their values. So far, Fells has been the better option due to finding the endzone, but he can’t be trusted as more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
Last week gave us a good preview of which running back would be on the field in situations the Texans were trailing, and it was unsurprisingly Duke Johnson receiving the higher snap rate than Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard). It’s likely that HOU faces a positive or neutral game-script tonight as the home favorites, meaning that Hyde will likely be heavily featured in the run game. Interestingly, even though IND Run DVOA is much worse than their Pass DVOA, they only give up 96.8 rushing yards per game and just 14.2 FPPG to RBs. Treat Hyde as a back-end RB2, it seems likely he finds his way into the endzone. Duke J can’t be trusted as more than a desperation RB3.
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Colts 21

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)

Browns ATS: 3-6-1 Dolphins ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Dolphins 16.75 Browns 27.25

Dolphins

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (Q) S Eric Murray (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): WR Gary Jennings (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeVante Parker (20%) Mike Gesicki (13%) Jakeem Grant (11%) Albert Wilson (10%) Patrick Laird (10%) Allen Hurns (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Kalen Ballage (70%, 14, 6) Patrick Laird (21%, 7, 6) Myles Gaskin (9%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The tank is still on in Miami even after winning a couple games. Instead of a being a shoo-in for the first pick, it’s looking like they’ll be top-3. Ryan Fitzmagic (downgrade) continues to sling the rock, and impressively threw for 323-yards with no scores and no interceptions against a very good BUF secondary last week. Either way, he does not need to be considered as a fantasy option.
Devante Parker has continued his breakout, albeit about 3 years too late for most fantasy owners to get behind. Parker has a solid shot to make his preseason goal of 1000- receiving yards, and as mentioned last week, MIA has a very favorable schedule moving forward for wideouts (CLE, PHI, NYJ, NYG, CIN). He needs to be owned in all formats. Jakeem Grant showed out last week, rushing for a touchdown and returning a kickoff for another. That kind of production can’t be relied upon, but he does have a penchant for big plays and appears fully healthy - he’s looking like the preferred flier over the likes of Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson. At one point it looked like Mike Gesicki may carry value the rest of the season, but it’s hard to get behind any MIA player and he completely busted last week with a 4-18-0 receiving line. Still, he has at least six targets in three consecutive games so he warrants some consideration, but he’s best suited as a TE2.
RB Breakdown
The good news is that Kalen Ballage (downgrade) salvaged his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown. The bad news is that he ran for just 9-yards on 9 carries, adding another 8-yards on 5 receptions. He’s a desperation RB3 that can’t be recommended in any format. Fellow running backs Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin aren’t seeing the volume right now to be considered in any format.

Browns

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): S Bobby McCain (Q) DE Taco Charlton (Q) LB Raekwon McMillan (Q) CB Ken Webster (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): OT Kendall Lamm (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Nik Needham (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Odell Beckham (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Kareem Hunt (24%) Nick Chubb (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Nick Chubb (56%, 27, 1) Kareem Hunt (42%, 12, 8) Dontrell Hilliard (1%, 0, 0) D’Ernest Johnson (1%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week's win against PIT got ugly, culminating in DE Myles Garrett ripping off Mason Rudolph's helmet and hitting him over the head with it. No matter which way it’s looked at, losing Garrett is a big loss for CLE. Luckily, they face a MIA squad that ranks in the bottom half for both Run and Pass DVOA. Baker Mayfield tossed two touchdowns last week, but still hasn’t performed at the level that was expected this season.
Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade) has been a bust so far, but against MIA is a great matchup - they give up 22 FPPG to QBs and 25.4 FPPG to WRs. CB Nik Needham is expected to shadow OBJ, and it’s not an imposing matchup, Needham was destroyed last week by ‘Smokey’ John Brown to the tune of 9-137-1. It seems more likely that he booms than busts this weekend, and he’s a good bet to find the endzone for the first time since Week 2. Speaking of finding the endzone, Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) has found paydirt in three consecutive weeks. Consider Landry an upside WR2 for PPR formats in the great matchup. It appears that tight end David Njoku isn’t expected to return from IR this week, when he does return it’ll hurt Landry’s redzone usage. Demetrius Harris and Ricky Seals-Jones are desperation streaming options - MIA gives up 7.7 FPPG to tight ends.
RB Breakdown
MIA has been better against the run in recent weeks, a couple weeks ago they were ranked almost dead last in both Run and Pass DVOA, but they have moved up the ranks against the rush. It’s likely irrelevant, as Nick Chubb (upgrade) and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) should run all over them in a positive game-script. Start Chubb with confidence as an RB1 and consider Hunt an upside RB2 in PPR formats - MIA gives up 22 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 27, Dolphins 17

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)

Broncos ATS: 6-4-0 Bills ATS: 6-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16.5 Bills 20.5

Broncos

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DE Jerry Hughes (Q) DB Siran Neal (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): WR Tim Patrick (Q) OG Dalton Risner (Q) C Conner McGovern (Q) OT Ja’Wuan James (Q) RB Phillip Lindsay (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Courtland Sutton vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (15%) Phillip Lindsay (11%) Royce Freeman (11%) Tim Patrick (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Phillip Lindsay (64%, 18, 2) Royce Freeman (30%, 9, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After squandering a big early lead last week, the Broncos head to Buffalo hoping to right the ship. Brandon Allen (downgrade) got off to a hot start with a few big throws, but faded in the second half and was a big reason why the Vikings were able to make a comeback. The Bills have an above average pass defense - surrendering the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs - so any streamer appeal Allen might have had is nullified by the matchup.
His best weapon in the passing game, Courtland Sutton (downgrade), will face one of his toughest matchups of the season in a likely shadow matchup vs Tre’Davious White. Despite the tough individual matchup, and the fact the Bills have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to WRs, Sutton’s performance this season has earned him a long leash in season-long leagues. He’s worthy of a start as a somewhat lower ceiling WR2. The surprise for the Broncos last week was Tim Patrick (deep stash) receiving eight targets and going for 77-yards on four catches. While Patrick is worth consideration as a deep-league stash, this is not the week to take a shot on starting him. He’s no more than a dice-roll WR4/5. Rookie tight end Noah Fant (downgrade) had another solid outing with a 4-60 line on a team-leading 11 targets. The Bills are perhaps the toughest against TEs - fewest FPPG allowed to the position - so Fant deserves a matchup downgrade. However, his role as the second option in this passing game, combined with his elite after-the-catch abilities, make him a low-end TE1 at such a thin position.
RB Breakdown
Denver was unable to establish a consistent running game against the Vikings stout front seven last week, but the Bills have a weakness in this area so it may be a matchup to exploit. Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) soundly out-snapped Royce Freeman in this loss, and looks set to lead the timeshare again this week assuming he’s healthy. Although Lindsay hasn’t been as involved in the passing game of late, his total touches have consistently been higher than Freeman’s. The Bills have given up the 15th most FPPG to RBs, but have a bottom-tier rush defense by DVOA metrics. Consider Lindsay a lower-end RB2 this week due mostly to the low projected point totals, but the matchup makes him worthy of a start in most leagues. Freeman is only a handcuff for Lindsay owners at this point.

Bills

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Joe Jones (Q) LB Justin Hollins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: John Brown vs. Chris Harris Jr.
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): John Brown (26%) Cole Beasley (20%) Dawson Knox (11%) Devin Singletary (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Devin Singletary (74%, 16, 1) Frank Gore (26%, 12, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills finally won a game that came primarily due to passing game heroics, albeit against the league-worst Dolphins defense, but now return home to face an underrated Broncos defense. Josh Allen finished with a career-best passer rating last week, and finished with an excellent final fantasy line. His rushing ability was on full display, but his impressive passes to John Brown were what really had his owners gushing. This week the matchup is a bit tougher - the Broncos give up the third fewest FPPG to QBs despite only the 15th ranked pass DVOA. Allen may regress a bit in the passing department, and this game’s low projected final score suggest fewer TDs, but his rushing upside keeps him in the back-end QB1 mix.
As for the previously mentioned John Brown (downgrade), he goes from one of the cushier matchups in the league to one of the toughest. He’s likely to face Chris Harris Jr. in shadow coverage most of the day, and although Harris got dusted a bit by Stefon Diggs last week, he remains one of the premier coverage corners in the NFL. The downgrade is negated somewhat by Brown’s ability to break a big play at any time, so owners can continue to plug him in as a WR2, but keep expectations in check. Cole Beasley (drop) is the only other WR worth consideration for the Bills, but his inability to rack up high catch totals has sapped any potential PPR value. Although he’ll likely get an easier matchup than Brown, his value is limited only to very deep leagues as a WR4/5 with little upside. Dawson Knox (drop) has shown some flashes as a rookie TE in the league, but he too hasn’t been able to consistently produce for fantasy. He’s an extremely TD-dependent TE2 whose matchup - Broncos give up the 13th most FPPG to TEs - isn’t enough of an upgrade to warrant a stream.
RB Breakdown
With the Bills having so much success through the air last week, there were fewer opportunities for Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (drop) on the ground last week than would be expected in such a positive game flow. However, Singletary was far more efficient with his opportunities, and looks like he’s on the precipice of a breakout. The Bills offense has struggled to put up points against good defenses, but Singletary has been a consistently impressive force when given opportunities. The Broncos have a solid rush defense and give up the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs, but the potential for an increased role in positive game-script put the rookie in RB2 territory. Gore’s only value is as a hindrance to Singletary’s breakout, and he shouldn’t be owned in any league except as an extremely low-upside handcuff.
Score Prediction: Bills 20, Broncos 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Steelers ATS: 6-4-0 Bengals ATS: 4-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Steelers 22.75 Bengals 16.25

Steelers

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR Juju Smith-Schuster (D) RB James Conner (D) WR Diontae Johnson (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Juju Smith-Schuster (17%) Jaylen Samuels (16%) Diontae Johnson (15%) Vance McDonald (13%) James Washington (13%) James Conner (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jaylen Samuels (34%, 10, 6) Trey Edmunds (47%, 6, 3) James Conner (18%, 6, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Putting aside the fact that he was involved in an ugly brawl at the end of last week’s game, Mason Rudolph (downgrade) was simply horrendous under center last week. He threw four interceptions, and couldn’t seem to hit receivers that were further than five yards away from him (even that was a struggle). The matchup couldn’t be better - the Bengals’ pass defense is ranked 31st by DVOA and gives up the 3rd most FPPG to QBs - but that doesn’t move the needle enough to consider him in standard leagues. Perhaps in a 2 QB league there’s an owner brave enough to stream Rudolph in this matchup, but we’d recommend against it.
Another reason to avoid Rudolph in any format is that he will likely be missing top target Juju Smith-Schuster, although it’s not like he used him much in the first place. With Juju doubtful to suit up, and Diontae Johnson questionable to play as well, James Washington is the only name to keep an eye on. If both of those players sit, Washington could be a volume-based WR3 based on opportunity and matchup. However, owners should likely avoid the situation altogether, despite the favorable matchup. Vance McDonald may have a better shot of capitalizing on the opportunity, but he too has been victim to Rudolph’s struggles (and his own). McDonald would be a low-end TE1 if both players sit, if only due to the matchup and the bump in usage. Still, avoid this passing game if possible.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy owners were dealt another tough injury-related lineup decision last week when the Steelers took James Conner off the injury report prior to kickoff, only to see him leave the game with a re-aggravation of a shoulder injury he had apparently been dealing with all week. Conner is looking doubtful to suit up against the Bengals on Sunday, so the backfield will again feature Jaylen Samuels (upgrade PPR) and Trey Edmunds this week. Although Edmunds actually led the team in snaps, it was Samuels who got the majority of the touches, and managed to score a TD despite the ugly offensive performance. The Bengals are a favorable matchup - giving up the fourth most FPPG to RBs - but the state of this offense overall limits Samuels’ fantasy appeal somewhat. Still, if Conner is out, Samuels should see the requisite volume to belong in the RB2 ranks, especially in PPR leagues due to his passing acumen. Edmunds is not a fantasy option at this point.

Bengals

Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): AJ Green (D) WR Audent Tate (Q) WR Stanley Morgan (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (24%) Auden Tate (19%) Alex Erickson (11%) Tyler Eifert (10%) Joe Mixon (8%) Gio Bernard (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Joe Mixon (59%, 16, 3) Gio Bernard (52%, 4, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
If you decided to stream Ryan Finley (16 team 2 QB league only) last week because the Raiders have a porous pass-defense, you likely ended the day with a loss. The rookie was again unimpressive, despite a favorable matchup, and now faces the 5th best pass defense by DVOA metrics. He is an easy avoid in all formats and all league sizes this week. Finley will be without AJ Green (ankle) again this week, and likely without Auden Tate (concussion, neck) as well. That leaves Tyler Boyd (downgrade) as the lone survivor of what was once a somewhat fearsome WR corps, at least on paper. The Steelers are middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs, but they’ll be able to focus most of their attention on Boyd knowing he’s the only threat out wide.
After watching the Steelers shut down Cooper Kupp two weeks ago because they saw him as the most important target for Jared Goff, there’s reason to believe that’s how the Steelers will approach Boyd. He’s in the WR4 range simply due to his likely volume, but his QB situation and tough matchup keep him out of the top-36 and give owners a strong incentive to consider benching him. Alex Erickson and Tyler Eifert are not fantasy options at this point outside of extremely deep leagues. There simply isn’t enough juice in this passing game with the rookie under center. If the Bengals are to pull the upset, it will be through a game manager type performance from Finley, a strong running game, and an even more inept Steelers offense.
RB Breakdown
Despite their offense becoming even more inept after benching Andy Dalton, the Bengals have found some success in the running game with Joe Mixon (upgrade standard) the past two weeks. Against two straight solid rushing defenses over the past two weeks (BAL and OAK), Mixon has racked up 200 rushing yards and over 50 receiving yards. This is due in part to a renewed commitment to him and the volume he has received, but also seemingly a slight improvement from the offensive line and perhaps from Mixon himself to run with more vigor. The Steelers are another tough matchup - giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs - but with his current volume and obvious talent, Mixon should be viewed as an RB2 regardless. If Finley can improve even slightly from last week, it would give Mixon a chance to repeat his performance and snag another rushing TD along the way. Gio Bernard is simply a handcuff to Mixon at this point, but he should be owned by all Mixon owners, especially those with postseason aspirations.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 14
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