Expected Value & Variance in Sports Betting: Identify the

DKNG - Fundamental DD Inside - DKNG

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.

[1] Susquehanna Research – U.S. Online Gambling 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Goldman Sachs Research – DKNG Initiation 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
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Wrestling Observer Rewind ★ Jun. 24, 2002

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
PREVIOUSLY:
1-7-2002 1-14-2002 1-21-2002 1-28-2002
2-4-2002 2-11-2002 2-18-2002 2-25-2002
3-4-2002 3-11-2002 3-18-2002 3-25-2002
4-1-2002 4-8-2002 4-15-2002 4-22-2002
4-29-2002 5-6-2002 5-13-2002 5-20-2002
5-27-2002 6-3-2002 6-10-2002 6-17-2002
  • We open with a ton of details on Steve Austin walking out on WWE last week, and the story took a darker turn this week when Austin was accused of allegedly beating his wife Debra. Looks like Dave is just going to run through the whole last couple of weeks first though, before we get to all that. No wrestler in the history of the business has generated more money than Austin has in the past 5 years, leading the way for WWE to become listed on the New York Stock Exchange and valued at more than $1 billion. Hulk Hogan, Antonio Inoki, Gorgeous George, Jim Londos....no one in the history of wrestling, even adjusted for inflation, has been a bigger money-maker than Steve Austin. Throughout it all, he had a reputation as a pro's pro, always working hard and being unselfish in trying to help the company and his co-workers grow. But over the last few months, things had changed. The company is nose-diving, Austin had become paranoid and distrustful of the locker room, particularly when the NWO guys were brought in. He refused to work with Hogan at Wrestlemania and wasn't happy about working with Hall either, and insisted on decisively winning their match and blowing off the feud. He went home after Wrestlemania, no-showing Raw the night after, but things seemed to be patched up soon after. When he came back, he still wasn't happy and spoke out publicly against the brand extension and the overall creative direction of the company. A lot of people in the locker room supported Austin, feeling he was completely justified in his complaints because everyone realizes the wheels are falling off the company lately. The Sunday night before Raw last week, Austin was told by Jim Ross that the plan was for him to face Brock Lesnar, with the idea that Eddie Guerrero would cost him the match. Austin pointed out the obvious: him vs. Lesnar is a huge money match that should be built up for months on PPV. Lesnar should go through the whole locker room before he gets to Austin last. No first, on free TV, with no build-up. Austin hated the idea and said he wasn't coming if that was the plan. Ross told Vince, who called Austin and left a voicemail. He told Austin to call him back, no matter what time. Austin did call back, at 2am, and they discussed the plan. According to Vince, Austin had reluctantly agreed to it. Austin evidently felt otherwise, because he showed up to Raw that day, found out the Lesnar match was still booked, and decided, "fuck that", got on a plane and went home with Debra.
  • Raw that night was mostly built around the angle where Ric Flair would have to be Austin's personal assistant after he lost their match last week. Because much of the show was written around that, they had to re-write the whole show at the last minute in a panic, abruptly turning Flair babyface again and ending the huge dual-ownership angle with no build-up (it really sounds like Vince was determined to give away something huge on TV that week without building it up. "Ok, fine, Austin walked out. What else can we ruin this week and throw away a perfectly good PPV money opportunity?"). Meanwhile, Austin was ignoring all phone calls until he finally answered one from Jim Ross, who told Austin he was being unprofessional and to come try and talk it out with Vince. But Austin refused, saying he refused to work with McMahon anymore, and hung up.
  • So then came the burial. Vince McMahon and Jim Ross taped interviews for this week's episode of WWE Confidential in which they completely buried Austin, with Vince vowing to never bring him back. Basically everything you can imagine: Austin turned his back on the fans, he betrayed the little kids with Stone Cold shirts and all the fans who made him rich. WWE invested so much in Austin only for him to turn his back on them and so on and so forth. Jim Ross in particular dumped a lot of dirt on Austin's grave here, which Dave seems taken aback by. Austin saved Jim Ross' announcing career by insisting that JR be brought back for his Wrestlemania 15 match with Rock. At the time, Ross was still suffering from Bells palsy and Vince had no intention of ever bringing him back, but Austin insisted and the crowd reaction led to Ross being brought back permanently. So for Ross to be burying his good friend like this seems to rub Dave the wrong way (for what it's worth, it rubbed JR the wrong way too. He's gone on record a million times since then saying he wished he hadn't done it and he's apologized to Austin profusely for it). Ross talked openly about some of Austin's personal business, like his previous divorce or when his kids went to live in England, and hinted that Austin's issues were more than just professional burnout. At the time this was being filmed, nobody knew just how true that was.
WATCH: WWE Confidential: The Steve Austine episode
  • The night before WWE Confidential aired, at 4am, Austin's wife Debra called 911 to their home in San Antonio, claiming Austin had attacked her. Austin drove away in his yellow Corvette before the police arrived. When they showed up, they found Debra crying with a large welt on her face. She said Austin had hit her several times after an argument then left when she made the 911 call. She said she was worried about the call because of how famous Austin is and knowing word would get out. She also showed them several marks on her back where she said Austin hit her. Austin called the house twice while police were there and they spoke to him and advised him to come home. Austin was cordial to the officers on the phone but refused to come back home while they were there. Debra declined to press charges and because she refused to seek medical attention, under Texas law, the police pretty much consider it a dead issue unless she changes her mind. Austin later returned home after they left. The national news media didn't pick up on it until Monday, at which point it became a huge story. They even had a news helicopter following Austin driving around town (with an open beer in his Corvette), talking with his neighbors in his yard, and also showed him flipping off the news cameras (I can't find footage of any of this). Because Austin is a wrestler and play fighting is what they do, the media treated this very serious issue as if were almost a joke, which Dave seems disgusted by.
  • With Austin being all over the news that day, this led to the unannounced surprise return of The Rock on Raw, after they spent the whole show teasing that Austin would show up. Rock wasn't scheduled to return until next month, to build for a match at Summerslam, but knowing the company was in a tough situation, Rock agreed to come back early. The plan appears to be for Rock to challenge for the WWE title at Fully Loaded next month. There's also been talk about Rock winning the title and then dropping it to Brock Lesnar at Summerslam, which is a surefire way to create a new superstar (indeed, that's exactly what happens). Rock's return, since it came as a complete surprise, was a flop in the ratings. If they had built it up just one week, they could have made some money on it, but not building up anything seems to be the M.O. for WWE these days. Between the Shawn Michaels return, the FlaiVince blow-off, and now this, that's 3 Raws in a row where they gave away major moments that should/could have been built up for bigger ratings or PPV money. Dave calls WWE a junkie pawning its $2,500 ring for $500 just to get a quick fix. And that's not even getting into the smaller details, such as the fact that Rock is a Smackdown guy, so why the fuck is he returning on Raw anyway? But again, the wheels are totally off the WWE train here in 2002. It's clear to see in retrospect how WWE was falling from their peak and Vince was desperately clawing at any idea he could think of to stop the bleeding.
  • So back to Austin. Even after the story broke, Vince went on Raw and changed his tune, saying he hoped Austin would some day come back to WWE but time would tell and for now, he's gone. Dave says if you think this is going to end Austin's career, look at Mike Tyson, Jimmy Snuka, Invader I, and Chris Adams. All of whom did even more heinous things than Austin and their careers were just fine. Dave is pretty sure he'll be back. Rock came out on Raw, gave a big rah-rah speech in which he also pretty much buried Austin for "taking his ball and going home" and did the whole "get the F out" tagline. And that's it on the Austin saga for now.
  • It's officially super-duper extra official now: the World Wrestling Federation is dead. WWE lost its final appeal in the UK's highest court in their battle against the World Wildlife Fund. Vince McMahon had already thrown in the towel and the company has already been renamed to WWE, but the final appeal was never dropped and was still going through the system. In the highly unlikely event that they somehow won the case, they planned to revert back to the WWF initials. But of course, they didn't win. Just like every single lower court before them, the court handed the wrestling company its final defeat. So WWF is dead. WWE it is.
  • Motoko Baba officially announced that she will be retiring as AJPW president at the end of September. It's expected that Keiji Muto will take over the role, which has been heavily rumored ever since he jumped ship from NJPW.
  • A rookie named Trevor Rhodes, who was trained by Harley Race, will be working the upcoming tour for Pro Wrestling NOAH (this would be future WWE star Trevor Murdoch).
  • NJPW held its annual stockholders meeting and Antonio Inoki couldn't even be bothered to attend. Masa Chono and Tatsuo Kawamura were named to the board of directors, to replace Riki Choshu. Speaking of, Choshu was also there and sold all his stock in the company and left without speaking to reporters.
  • In a radio interview, Jesse Ventura announced that he will not be running for a second term as Minnesota's governor. Ventura didn't go into all the reasons why, but he did acknowledge a recent controversy as playing a part. There's been some news stories this week noting that Ventura's 22-year-old son used the governor's mansion for a late night weekend party awhile back. Cleaning crew members of the mansion went public saying that when their parents are gone, this kid basically throws wild parties there that they have to clean up after. Ventura shot back, basically claiming his son is being slandered and denied it, but said the attacks on his family made him not want to run again. The news stories talked about some of the alleged damage and Dave actually sides with Ventura here. The damage doesn't sound that bad (some empty beer cans, a broken pool cue, and some tables that were scuffed up. "Geez, that's my house whenever there is a fight night," Dave writes. Doesn't sound like that wild of a party. A 22-year old brings his friends over to watch sports and drink some beer. Dave doesn't think that should be a huge controversy or anything. Neighbors near the mansion have said there's been no issue with noise or disturbances.
  • Major League Wrestling had its debut show at the old ECW Arena and the MLW championship was won by Shane Douglas. They did an angle where they basically tried to re-create the famous Shane Douglas/NWA title incident, where Shane was gonna throw the belt down, but they did an angle where he was told he'd be fined and suspended for life from wrestling if he didn't defend the belt. Angle didn't get over at all and most people there hated it and it led to pretty mediocre reviews for the show overall. Bam Bam Bigelow was supposed to work the show, but when he arrived, he found out they wanted him to do a job to AJPW wrestler Taiyo Kea in the first round of the title tournament. Bam Bam said fuck that and bounced. Steve Corino also managed to get a "fuck Paul Heyman!" chant going, in the ECW Arena nonetheless, which is an interesting note.
  • Sandman will be doing a celebrity boxing match in Philly soon, going against Tony Luke, who owns a bunch of sandwich shops in the area and is known as "The King of Sandwiches" in Philadelphia. Sure, why not?
  • There was a recent news story about Sputnik Monroe from a reporter who was in Memphis for the Tyson/Lewis boxing match. The reporter went to the Memphis Rock 'n Soul museum and saw the big display they had there for Monroe, including his ring jacket, trunks, boots, etc. Dave recaps the history of Monroe, who is credited with desegregating wrestling in Memphis during the Jim Crow days of the 1950s. Monroe was a white wrestler who hung out in the black part of town and, as a result, became the black fans' favorite wrestler. He was a huge draw in Memphis at a time when black fans weren't allowed to sit in the main seats, only the nosebleeds in the balcony. Monroe's popularity was so big that one week, they turned away more than 1,000 black fans even though they had room in the arena. Just not in the "colored" section. So Monroe told the promoter he was quitting if they didn't let in his black fans. And since Monroe was such a huge draw, the promoter caved, and just like that, black fans were allowed to sit with white fans anywhere in the arena. It actually had a domino effect, because it was the first sporting event in Memphis to desegregate and it led to other sporting and entertainment events in the city following suit. In the 50s and 60s, Memphis was one of the only wrestling territories in America that was desegregated like this (fun fact: I used to live in Memphis and just went to that museum back in 2018. For starters, I highly recommend it if you're ever in town. In fact, I have a million recommendations for anyone who ever visits Memphis. That city is my heart and soul. Also, the Sputnik Monroe exhibit is still there).
  • The TNA debut show hasn't happened at press time, but Ken Shamrock is expected to win the NWA title in the battle royal gimmick. If he doesn't, it's because there was a last minute change, but as of now, it's absolutely going to be Shamrock.
  • Good news for TNA, the company reached an agreement with Dish Network, which adds another 7-8 million potential homes to their exposure. The only PPV provider in the U.S. not carrying them now is Cablevision.
  • The TNA cruiserweight title has been renamed the "X" title. The idea is that it's not necessarily going to be limited to just small guys and will act more as a secondary title to the NWA belt, not exclusively a cruiserweight thing.
  • Disco Inferno turned down an offer to join TNA because they wanted him to change his name to Ad Man and have a gimmick where people print/draw ads on his body, like they do in boxing sometimes. Or like a NASCAR. The idea is he would be covered in ads and every week, he'd lose a match and a "sponsor" would drop out and eventually, he'd have no sponsors left because he keeps losing. Gee, hard to see why he turned that gimmick down.
  • Random other TNA notes: Ed Ferrara is involved in writing the shows along with Jeff and Jerry Jarrett (and, let's be honest, Vince Russo, though that's still top secret. Shhhh, don't tell anybody). Jeff Jarrett was in the pits for the recent NASCAR Kroger 300 race with Hermie Sadler, who is scheduled to be at TNA's debut show. Former ECW manager Sinister Minister will be part of this company, using his real name James Mitchell. K-Krush (Ron Killings, aka R-Truth) is expected to be one of the main heels in the promotion.
  • Okay, fine. Let's talk Russo. Officially, he's still not involved, but he has submitted a bunch of ideas, many of which are expected to be implemented on the debut show. But "officially" he's not part of the company (he's still gotta have a quick cup of coffee in WWE before they kick him to the curb again, at which point he finally decides to join TNA for real).
  • The WWA promotion is in deep trouble. They have a show scheduled for Ireland soon and ticket sales for that show are pretty decent. But every other show on their books looks to be dying. They have 3 shows scheduled for Germany next month and all 3 shows have less than 500 tickets sold each. The German promoters are wanting to cancel the tour but WWA promoter Andrew McManus has a contract that will result in a lot of financial penalties for him if the shows are canceled, so he's fighting it. Lex Luger is booked for the tour, which would be his first time wrestling since WCW went down. They're also still promoting names like Jeff Jarrett and other TNA contracted talent, but with their new plan of running live every week, it's going to be hard for any of them to get overseas, work the tour, and still do the TNA tapings.
  • XWF is making one last grasp to survive. Even though they've been saying this for almost a year now, the promotion is claiming once again to be very close to getting a TV deal. If it goes through, the plan is to hold a press conference to announce it and then tape 5 weeks of TV to air in Sept. and Oct., with plans to air a PPV some time in late-October. Dave says this sounds like desperation to him and he's not buying that a TV deal is close. Especially since they lost all their top stars, like Hogan, Curt Hennig, and Jerry Lawler, all of whom were involved at the beginning but have all since returned to WWE (though Hennig has since been fired by WWE again, so he's available). But even if this miraculously happens, most of the marketable names left out there have already signed short-term deals with TNA that will last through October, so they wouldn't be available either. So XWF will be struggling to fill a roster with names anyone even cares about (obviously this never happens).
  • UFC will make its TV debut as part of a 30-minute segment on Fox Sports' "The Best Damn Sports Show Period." It will be hosted by Fear Factor host Joe Rogan, who is a huge UFC fan and has a lot of martial arts experience himself. The idea is to show one full fight in its entirety (Robbie Lawler vs. Steve Berger), with highlights of other fights to fill out the rest of the time. Dave criticizes them for not putting Chuck Liddell vs. Vitor Belfort on the show, or at least airing highlights, but that's not the plan as of press time. Obviously, that's a strong PPV draw and that's where the money is, but you only get one chance to make a good impression and Dave thinks it would be in UFC's best interest to give TV viewers a taste of their best foot forward and try to get somebody like Liddell over with a new, large audience.
  • Dave says the Bob Sapp fight in K-1 that was talked about last week, in which Sapp basically mauled his opponent in such a way that he got DQ'd, was at least partially a work. Had it not been, Sapp would have been immediately fired, not given a rematch with the same opponent 6 weeks later. There's a pretty good chance that his opponent didn't know and that the people who ran in to separate them after the fight didn't know either, but Dave seems pretty confident that Sapp was instructed by someone higher up in K-1 to do what he did.
  • Rock's next movie, "Helldorado" is expected to film between September until around Christmas. WWE is hopeful Rock can make some appearances on TV during the those months in between filming dates, but that's going to be difficult to pull off (indeed, he never shows up during this time).
  • Speaking of Rock, he worked the Honalulu, HI house show over the weekend, which drew an easy sellout crowd, the first sellout for a house show in a long time. Due to Rock being on the card, tickets sold out in 2 hours and scalpers were making a ton of money. In fact, the show was such a big deal that a local radio station was giving away tickets for the craziest stunt fans could pull and 2 fans walked through downtown Honolulu completely naked in order to score tickets. Rock beat Jericho in the main event in a great match. It was WWE's first time there in 8 years (Dave corrects himself from before, when he said 14 years in a previous issue and someone here on Reddit called him out on it haha). Rock got a reaction like Antonio Inoki in Japan, he was basically a god in this city. A lot of his friends and family were there as well and backstage, Rock told people that the show was bigger to him than even his 4 Wrestlemania main events and called it the biggest night of his career. When talking about his grandfather, Rock got emotional and began crying and talked about his history promoting in Hawaii. Bruce Willis, for whatever reason, was in attendance, and during the match, they did an angle where Rock held Jericho for Willis to punch him which got a huge pop. Genichiro Tenryu and Motoko Baba were there as well, meeting with John Laurinaitis (Johnny Ace, who spent much of his career in AJPW). They were there to discuss doing business with WWE as well as to get some photo ops for the magazines back in Japan so they can get that WWE-rub. (Sure enough, here's an article from just a couple months ago where Rock says once again, to this day, that the match with Jericho in Hawaii was the most meaningful match of his career. I can't find any footage of the damn thing though, which is a shame).
WATCH: The Rock, in 2020, talks about the Hawaii match with Jericho being his most meaningful match
  • Notes from Raw: X-Pac lost in a King of the Ring qualifier match to RVD and Dave says it's a good thing nobody in WWE pays attention to their own storylines because just a week or two ago, the story was that if anyone in the NWO loses a match going forward, they're out of the group. But of course, that wasn't even acknowledged or remembered here. Raven lost to Jeff Hardy in 3 minutes and Dave's not sure that Raven made the right move by giving up his safe commentary job because they sure don't seem to see much in him as a wrestler. The "Molly Holly is fat" storyline continued because fuck this company. Lawler even tried to get a "She's a fat ass" chant going. Backstage, X-Pac was shown crying after his loss, "sort of like real life," Dave jokes. They teased Austin showing up by playing his music and having Eddie Guerrero and Chris Benoit come out instead. They did a thing with Jackie Gayda teasing her being on the WWE Lingerie Special that airs next week and had Vince hitting on her backstage, making it very apparent why she was chosen to win Tough Enough over the obvious most deserving finalist, Kenny. And in the main event, Nash and Shawn Michaels were on commentary burying the match, making fun of Jim Ross, etc. And of course, the show closed with Rock doing his surprise return and promo where he pretty much buried Austin for leaving.
WATCH: The Rock makes surprise return to Raw to bury Austin
  • Coming out of Raw, a TON of fans still seemed to think the Austin thing was an angle. Vince's first promo, which was a total shoot about Austin being gone, didn't get over that way, with most fans in the arena expecting an angle and waiting for him to show up. There were constant "We want Austin!" chants and many people that Dave has heard from even thought the Confidential episode was all a work.
  • Notes from Smackdown: all the mentions of Austin on commentary weren't done live during the show, but were later dubbed in. Mostly it was just an effort to plug the Confidential episode about him, and it was such a last minute decision to do that episode that they had to edit the plugs in after the show was taped. The wall of security guards in the ring during the Triple H/Undertaker contract signing was copying the same thing they did before the Tyson/Lewis fight because it's a pretty cool visual. Nidia is doing a hillbilly gimmick now. Hurricane seems to be dropping his gimmick and going back to Gregory Helms. Word is most of the agents hated the Hurricane character for whatever dumb reason.
  • Dave talks about the upcoming Hogan vs. Kurt Angle match at King of the Ring and is curious to see how it goes. He thinks the most likely ending is Vince costing Hogan the match and Angle pinning him, but he's curious to see if Hogan is really going to try to put Angle over or is it gonna be another Kidman situation. That being said, WWE is protecting Angle and there's serious talk of giving Angle a run as the top guy, in the wake of Austin and Rock leaving and Undertaker and Triple H being so banged up. The idea is to put the belt on Angle and have him take on all comers, heel and face, like an old-school Lou Thesz-type champion. Either way, this Hogan match is going to be a test of how good Angle is because if he can't carry Hogan to a good match, then no one can. It's also going to be a test of whether Hogan is really the team player he claims to be now (yeah Dave's gonna be shocked at how this one ends I bet).
  • At the latest WWE tapings in Atlanta, Dusty Rhodes was backstage visiting and introducing his 16-year-old son Cody Runnels to everyone. Cody has been training with his father to be a wrestler. Good luck kid.
  • Former 50s-80s promoter Jim Barnett was also backstage at Raw and since it was his birthday, the McMahons got him a cake and orchestrated everyone singing happy birthday to him. Barnett was there because he was just hired as a consultant, which is curious timing. Barnett hadn't been officially hired by TNA or anything, but he had agreed to appear at their debut show as part of an angle with old NWA champions. So when WWE swooped in this past week and hired him, it got a lot of people talking but Dave says there's nothing to it. If Vince McMahon was trying to poach people from TNA, he wouldn't start by hiring a 78-year-old guy to be a consultant.
  • The local FOX station in Los Angeles, like everyone else, covered the Steve Austin/Debra story on the "Good Day L.A." morning newscast. The story was presented as a big joke, even using the headline "Smackdown At Home." Well, one of the anchors, Jillian Barberie, refused to play along, presenting the story as the serious issue it is and afterwards, criticized the station's writing team live on the air, calling them low class for making light of a woman being beaten by her husband.
  • Random WWE news and notes: Bubba Ray Dudley missed the UK PPV and TV this week due to the death of his mother. Edge and Chris Jericho have joined Kurt Angle as part of the Get Tough on Angina campaign that Angle has already been doing commercials for. A commercial for Summerslam was filmed this week with a bunch of guys chasing Trish Stratus in an ice cream truck.
WATCH: Trish Stratus Summerslam 2002 ice cream truck commercial
  • Rey Mysterio made his WWE debut at a house show in San Diego, beating Chavo Guerrero. Mysterio was wearing his mask again and was said to be more impressive than anyone else on the show. The mask actually did come off by accident at one point though. Mysterio also looked substantially bigger than he did in WCW because, well, he's coming to WWE and you know how that goes.
NEXT WEDNESDAY: Bret Hart injured in bicycle accident, WWE re-hires Vince Russo, King of the Ring fallout, and more coverage of TNA's debut than you could ever possibly want, and a ton more...
submitted by daprice82 to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

Bankroll Management Part I

Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure).
Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%.
Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin.
Kelly Criterion
With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then?
After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%.
Better, but still significant risk of ruin.
Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”.
Bet Units vs Bet Allocation
Record: 72-53 +13.7 units
Patriots -7.5 2 units
Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size.
Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it.
Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750?
If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows:
Bankroll distribution
However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets.
Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting
To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: ~13.0%
Expected Return: ~4.8%
Median Return: ~ $2,645
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265%
Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below:
Ending Bankroll Distribution
Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0%
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5%
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll.
Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows:
Median Calculation
The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time. [1] The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.
[1] Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550.
Binomial Probability Calculator
We get the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: 0.0%
Expected Return: 5.0%
Median Return: $2,967
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297%
“So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.”
You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes.
Lognormal Distribution
The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right.
Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale:
‍5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale
When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”):
5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale
As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II.
What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite.
Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Mindset & Expectation in sports betting

Sharing another lesson here with the hopes some readers can gain something from it. I also want to take a second to explain my intentions with posting these lessons and story’s. I don’t and will never claim to know everything and I don’t even consider myself “sharp”, some others might but I don’t because I know real sharps.
The reason I started posting here is because I’m sickened by the sports betting industry and it’s cannibalistic nature, with all the pick selling touts, scammers and wannabes. There is a ton of educational sports betting information for beginners and recreational bettors out there but most of it is bullshit or there are strings attached. A lot of dream selling and unrealistic promises. I just want to help new bettors navigate the world of sports betting and avoid some of the mistakes I made, I’m still learning new things everyday and I’ve been involved in sports betting for over 15yrs on both sides of the counter. It’s unfortunate there are people that prey on the new bettors but there is also a lack of helping each other because most successful bettors protect their edge and don’t want to give away any of their gems and look down on inexperienced bettors and the few people that attempt to help. I can’t promise anyone that they will win money listening to me but I truly believe you will be better prepared and lose less if you put in the effort and invest in yourself to improve your overall sports betting IQ.

Lesson: Mindset & Loss Aversion

Treat it like a business and it can pay like one. Obviously the act of sports betting is easy but being a profitable sports bettor is extremely difficult over the long term. One of the biggest differences (of the many) between successful bettors and recreational sports bettors is Discipline, discipline is what separates a lot of bad and good sports bettors.
When placing a wager, think of it as buying or selling the sports books offer and don’t ever settle for any number. If you miss a number, move on. Sports betting is a marathon not a sprint and bad beats will happen and they will happen on good bets but as long as you keep making the right decisions repeatedly and getting the best possible price it will give you a chance long term. Making bets that you may not think will win but the price is right is one of the hardest things to overcome and a bridge any successful gambler has to cross. It sounds crazy but good bets can lose and bad bets can win but being on the correct side is all that matters. Learning how to lose is another stepping stone in sports betting, being even keeled after a losing bet and not crying about it, losing leads to more losing if you let it overcome you. Having a short memory is needed, this will help the temptations of chasing. After a losing wager it’s easy to blame players, umps or any act of god but rather then do that look at what you could’ve done differently in your research or was there anything that could’ve got you off that play. This again is very tough to do, especially when you can make good bets but still lose. (I discuss this more in the closing line value lesson from 2 weeks ago.)
Having the right Expectations is also very important, this will keep your emotions in check, knowing that winning 57% long term is great and that 70% is all but impossible long term in major markets.
Loss Aversion
Depending on how you answer the following question will tell if you are more Loss Averse or not. Would you rather be the person to find $5 on the ground or not be the person to lose $5 on the ground?
Humans/Athletes hate losing so much that they actually perform better in situations where they are attempting to avoid defeat rather than simply trying to win. The psychology behind the theory is referred to as “loss aversion” and it draws from the simple fact that humans hate to have things taken away from them. Loss aversion is a theory of humans performing better when they are losing or facing a losing scenario.
The best real-world example comes from the PGA Tour study by two guys named Pope and Schweitzer. With 250 workers hired by the PGA tour and lasers on each putting green they studied over 2 million putts from the same distance. Pope and Schweitzer used data from 239 tournaments concentrating on 2.5 million putts attempted by 421 professional golfers who each made at least 1,000 putts. The focus was on the issue of loss aversion, the researchers examined the putts in the context of the par set for each hole. According to the researchers, the par number creates a reference point that clearly distinguishes a loss from a gain. On their scorecards, golfers circle holes they score under par. If they shoot over par, the score is framed in a dreaded square, which symbolizes a loss
Most putts in the data study were for par (47%) or birdie (39.8%). The approach to each hole taken by golfers, relative to par, provides a way to measure loss aversion. Pope and Schweitzer used the PGA data to determine whether a golfer was playing it safe by making a putt that would end up just in front of the hole. “This finding is consistent with loss aversion; players invest more focus when putting for par to avoid encoding a loss,” the researchers write. Schweitzer notes that the behavior reflects the bias toward avoiding loss, in this case, missing par and scoring a bogey — over the potential to score more in the overall tournament, which is what ultimately matters. “Loss aversion is the systematic mistake of segregating gains and losses, evaluating decisions in isolation rather than in the aggregate and over-weighting losses relative to gains,” he says. Now think of that in terms of sports betting and how helpful that thought process would be, we want to think in the aggregate or grand total, not in isolated decisions.
In football a great example is when we see a team is winning, they tend to revert to a prevent defense rather than sticking with what worked for them to get the lead in the first place. Research has shown that an aggressive offensive is much more important to success than having an effective conservative offense, duh.
Being aware of this as a bettor but also how it affects the players on the field is helpful. The reality is that most casual bettors will be a lot more careful with their wager selections when they have a smaller amount of money since they don’t want to lose it. Meanwhile, those same players might tend to take more risks when they have a good amount of money since they feel like they can spare some should they lose. They will often think of it as “house money” and bet carelessly. Loss aversion is a simple concept and it’s good for bettors to be aware of its existence at all times, when up or down.
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

My top 10 things I wish I would have known 4 months ago before I started botting, and my advice for you.

Hey so as stated before, I want to put a disclaimer that if you are an experienced botter, you might not gain anything from this, but I do ask if you have input, feel free to share. This is geared towards the average day one guy who is interested in picking up botting as a hobby, or additional income, with little to zero experience in bots.
Okay so most of us are here because 1) items are becoming more and more harder to cop manual or 2) you have already been reselling, and you’d like to cop multiples or 3) Maybe you just saw Instagram/YouTube or other social media platform and you are intrigued Either way, I hope you gain something from this. First off, there are a lot of misconceptions in the community. Here’s my 2nd disclaimer. This is 100% just my opinion, and what I have learned from my own personal experience. 3rd disclaimer. I will not be mentioning any cook groups and/or proxy companies. This post is in no way, to put down or disrespect any providers/bots/or cook groups. But in my next hour I’d like to prepare information to raise awareness, and to help you not waste as much money, resources, or time I have. I call those learning expenses. Here we go, the things I wish someone would’ve told me 4 months ago. As stated, I am an Active Duty Military Officer of 14 years, with a family. I initially started with 15-20k invested, and kept my investment flowing. I am the owner of Machete rentals, Discord: Palmtreesandmachetes#4612. I hope you all enjoy this.
  1. Culture - If you know zero about shoes/streetwear, then you should probably stay away. Just like someone with zero car knowledge wouldn’t become a used car salesman, this is not for you. I have collected for over 14 years/been a reseller on Niketalk/solecollectoebay years before I even attempted to bot. In order to understand the hype/demand behind product, I feel that you must have been a consumer at one point. If you’re already a resellehave knowledge in the culture of sneakers and what the people want, then you are already ahead of the game. If not, you run the risk of collecting bricks, and you’ll spend a lot more time contemplating what you need to bot versus the technical aspects of botting itself. Not saying it’s completely impossible, but you will be well behind the power curve, and run the risk of spending more or picking up a product without any demand.
  2. Understanding overhead costs - Even as a casual botter, you can easily fetch over $300-$400 plus of overhead fees per month. Some of these are optional but proxies, bot costs(whether renewal fees/rental fees), server costs, cook group renewal fees, one click gmails, snkrs accounts, etc. these things add up quickly, so if you don’t have the capital, I would reassess your current budget. Some of these are optional based upon the type of botting you’re interested in, but more important just be aware that botting is quite expensive and that there is potential to lose money in the beginning.
  3. Buying a bot- Now you’ve decided hey I want to buy a bot. You have a few options; this is considering you already have a discord account (Facebook/and Reddit should not be a source of information for you). First of all buying isn’t the only option, there is the option to rent in the online marketplace, so try before you buy. Do yourself the due diligence and do your research. There are different types of bots from AIO(All in one ie Cyber, Kodai, Balko, NSB) IO(bots that specialize in one thing/site ie Mekpreme, Velox) Raffle bots (hyper, kicksrafflebot) SNKRS (TSB, BNB, Ghost). Botmart, Tidal, Botbroker.io and Didi marketplace are just a few online options that you have when purchasing a key. I usually use botbroker.io to see current market value/and see past sale history, asks/bids, etc. When dealing with transactions outside Botbroker.io, always use a middleman in order to not get scammed. There are many bots ie that are not authorized for resale(Swft, hyperrafflebot, Whatbot), so by looking for those, or making WTB posts, you are putting a giant target on your back. I know this from personal experience.
  4. Proxies - Not to be controversial, but if you’ve purchased from 10 different online proxy companies, chances are 1 or 2 , are from the same proxy provider: smartproxy, netnut, AWS, Comcast, Verizon, oxylabs, just to name a few. The proxies you use are one of the most, if not the MOST important aspect of your botting success. Don’t fall into the hype and pay over $20 extra per GB for a name. Understand the difference between residential, DC, DC AIO/ISP, and what sites you should be using them on.
  5. Gmails - Another extremely important aspect of botting when it comes to Supreme and/or Shopify. Captcha bypass is a thing of the past. Learn about the captcha harvester and how to utilize them correct. Add this to your overhead costs, that you will need a gmail bot (AYCD/ALTX/Kodai essentials) that will help farm your gmails/along with dedicated captcha/DC proxies. Your one clicks will determine the difference between you checking out in seconds versus not checking out at all, so don’t take this lightly. You are now in the NBA, where you are competing against thousands or millions of botters, so every single second counts.
  6. Cookgroups - Okay now that you have most of your resources, let’s find a cookgroup. Some people say cookgroups are optional. Why should you pay for them? First of all, any good ones are going to be competitive/limited/and almost impossible to get into. But they provide leaks, early links, info, calls, and more. There are some of them that specialize in different things ie lowkey flips, shoes, stocks, bot reselling/restocks, sports betting, or you find one that has it all. My cook group has personally helped me grow as a botter, and I wouldn’t be where I am today without them. I have also had the opportunity for many groupbuys to include Splashforce, Launcher bot, proxies and more on a weekly basis. Overall you want a good mature community, a great owner, and a comfortable environment so that you are given the opportunity to learn. However with every good thing, there are some bad apples. There are some groups you should stay away from. So ensure to do your research !
  7. Profiles – Capital one Eno, Privacy, & Citibank are all excellent VCC providers. In order to maximize success ratio on the bigger footsites, YS releases, and avoiding cancellations, educate yourself on jigging profiles, and spend the necessary time to setup a catchall/create accounts, j1gging your addresses/phone numbers correctly to ensure you don’t hit a 100 clip just to get them all cancelled. There are many opinions out there on what information is required to j1g. Botting takes time, and its not just about setting up tasks and clicking go. You will spend hours of preparation ensuring your billing profiles are created/and organized. Microsoft excel is an essential tool. Utilize it.
  8. Technique – Understand proxy protection, anti-bot, and take the time to research how each bot works. What method do they use to checkout/pass splash etc. What modes are available within the bot, and how do they differ. What delays should I use? The major types of releases you will encounter online is going to be Mesh, Shopify, Footsites, Supreme, & Yeezy Supply. Shopify is by far the most difficult to learn since the way you bot UNDFTD will vary from the way you bot Kith. If available don’t put all your tools in one bag, having a contingency backup is beneficial. Bots will flop. It is the nature of the game, and you will take Ls. Don’t let it discourage you. There are millions of tasks being thrown at sometimes less than a hundred pairs, and even if your technique is perfect, there is also a percentage of luck involved. Variety is key (run a mix of specified delays if your bots support it, run a mix of ISP/DC/residential proxy providers, a mix of fast/safe tasks. Take the time to run every available release you can, even if its just with a test profile. Kith Mondays are an excellent time to test your products/ensure your proxies are working correctly. So ensure that you are using any available opportunity. There’s a misconception that if you buy a 5K bot that you will take 100 stock on every release. Someone with years of experience and great technique, proxies, etc. will outperform you everytime with a cheaper bot. So by paying more money, do not be fooled by expecting to hit 100 pairs in your first drop. It took months to find what proxies, what server, what bots worked for me and what didn’t. Updates are very consistent in the community and things change almost everyday. What is extremely successful today, may not be successful tomorrow, and so on. It’s a fast paced game, and this is not for the weak-hearted. It takes hours of dedication and research, there are no shortcuts. Bots are extremely volatile, I have seen Wrath go from 300-500 to 2k in just a matter of weeks. I have also seen Balko go from 2.2k to 1.1k so be careful. This is why renting is highly preferred.
  9. Don’t get scammed– I cannot emphasize this enough. Use a middleman if conducting transactions in Botmart/Tidal. If something sounds too good to be true, It most likely is. Whatbot, Hyperrrafflebot, and SWFT are non-resellable. SWFT is available for purchase in Botbroker. The other two you are only going to get if 1) you win a giveaway or 2) Groupbuy. Bot flipping and bot renting are highly profitable. However, I DO NOT Recommend this for a beginner. Focus on getting good at botting. And then look at other avenues of approach, so that your overhead fees can be paid for.
  10. Closing – By the way buying bots for retail is extremely competitive. I have paid for each bot I own hundreds or thousands over retail. In closing, I’d like to leave you with the top performing bots in each category, this is only MY personal opinion as of current performance: Shopify – Cyber, Balko, Wrath, Kodai, NSB, Sole AIO Footsites – Kodai, Ganesh, Cyber, Whatbot, Wrath, Phantom, Balko Yeezy Supply/Adidas – Wrath, Splashforce, Polaris, Project Destroyer Supreme – Mekpreme, Velox, Cyber, Tohru SNKRS – TSB, BNB, Ghost ( I DO NOT SUGGEST FOR BEGINNERS) Mesh – Mbot, Hawkmesh, Cyber Bestbuy/Walmart/Target/Panini – SWFT AIO, Scottbot, Phantom Shoepalace – Launcher bot, Hayha Raffle – Hyperrafflebot (I DO NOT SUGGEST FOR BEGINNERS) Bot restock tools – Zeny, Fattye ACO Frenzy – Project Frenzy, Mango Frenzy Finishline – Kodai Gmail bot – AYCD, Kodai essentials Hibbettsports – Sole AIO
Edit: Unfortunately I’m not able to respond to the overwhelming amount of DMs, shoot me a follow on IG: Pusha_tea or Twitter: Leonardtenorio. If you are interested in more content, I will start doing more in depth bot reviews, lmk in the comments what else you would like to see, but unfortunately I can not provide 1-on-1 support for you all.
submitted by palmtreesandmachetes to shoebots [link] [comments]

100% beginners guide to botting

Hey so as stated before, I want to put a disclaimer that if you are an experienced botter, you might not gain anything from this, but I do ask if you have input, feel free to share. This is geared towards the average day one guy who is interested in picking up botting as a hobby, or additional income, with little to zero experience in bots.
Okay so most of us are here because 1) items are becoming more and more harder to cop manual or 2) you have already been reselling, and you’d like to cop multiples or 3) Maybe you just saw Instagram/YouTube or other social media platform and you are intrigued Either way, I hope you gain something from this. First off, there are a lot of misconceptions in the community. Here’s my 2nd disclaimer. This is 100% just my opinion, and what I have learned from my own personal experience. 3rd disclaimer. I will not be mentioning any cook groups and/or proxy companies. This post is in no way, to put down or disrespect any providers/bots/or cook groups. But in my next hour I’d like to prepare information to raise awareness, and to help you not waste as much money, resources, or time I have. I call those learning expenses. Here we go, the things I wish someone would’ve told me 4 months ago. As stated, I am an Active Duty Military Officer of 14 years, with a family. I initially started with 15-20k invested, and kept my investment flowing. I am the owner of Machete rentals, Discord: Palmtreesandmachetes#4612. I hope you all enjoy this.
  1. Culture - If you know zero about shoes/streetwear, then you should probably stay away. Just like someone with zero car knowledge wouldn’t become a used car salesman, this is not for you. I have collected for over 14 years/been a reseller on Niketalk/solecollectoebay years before I even attempted to bot. In order to understand the hype/demand behind product, I feel that you must have been a consumer at one point. If you’re already a resellehave knowledge in the culture of sneakers and what the people want, then you are already ahead of the game. If not, you run the risk of collecting bricks, and you’ll spend a lot more time contemplating what you need to bot versus the technical aspects of botting itself. Not saying it’s completely impossible, but you will be well behind the power curve, and run the risk of spending more or picking up a product without any demand.
  2. Understanding overhead costs - Even as a casual botter, you can easily fetch over $300-$400 plus of overhead fees per month. Some of these are optional but proxies, bot costs(whether renewal fees/rental fees), server costs, cook group renewal fees, one click gmails, snkrs accounts, etc. these things add up quickly, so if you don’t have the capital, I would reassess your current budget. Some of these are optional based upon the type of botting you’re interested in, but more important just be aware that botting is quite expensive and that there is potential to lose money in the beginning.
  3. Buying a bot- Now you’ve decided hey I want to buy a bot. You have a few options; this is considering you already have a discord account (Facebook/and Reddit should not be a source of information for you). First of all buying isn’t the only option, there is the option to rent in the online marketplace, so try before you buy. Do yourself the due diligence and do your research. There are different types of bots from AIO(All in one ie Cyber, Kodai, Balko, NSB) IO(bots that specialize in one thing/site ie Mekpreme, Velox) Raffle bots (hyper, kicksrafflebot) SNKRS (TSB, BNB, Ghost). Botmart, Tidal, Botbroker.io and Didi marketplace are just a few online options that you have when purchasing a key. I usually use botbroker.io to see current market value/and see past sale history, asks/bids, etc. When dealing with transactions outside Botbroker.io, always use a middleman in order to not get scammed. There are many bots ie that are not authorized for resale(Swft, hyperrafflebot, Whatbot), so by looking for those, or making WTB posts, you are putting a giant target on your back. I know this from personal experience.
  4. Proxies - Not to be controversial, but if you’ve purchased from 10 different online proxy companies, chances are 1 or 2 , are from the same proxy provider: smartproxy, netnut, AWS, Comcast, Verizon, oxylabs, just to name a few. The proxies you use are one of the most, if not the MOST important aspect of your botting success. Don’t fall into the hype and pay over $20 extra per GB for a name. Understand the difference between residential, DC, DC AIO/ISP, and what sites you should be using them on.
  5. Gmails - Another extremely important aspect of botting when it comes to Supreme and/or Shopify. Captcha bypass is a thing of the past. Learn about the captcha harvester and how to utilize them correct. Add this to your overhead costs, that you will need a gmail bot (AYCD/ALTX/Kodai essentials) that will help farm your gmails/along with dedicated captcha/DC proxies. Your one clicks will determine the difference between you checking out in seconds versus not checking out at all, so don’t take this lightly. You are now in the NBA, where you are competing against thousands or millions of botters, so every single second counts.
  6. Cookgroups - Okay now that you have most of your resources, let’s find a cookgroup. Some people say cookgroups are optional. Why should you pay for them? First of all, any good ones are going to be competitive/limited/and almost impossible to get into. But they provide leaks, early links, info, calls, and more. There are some of them that specialize in different things ie lowkey flips, shoes, stocks, bot reselling/restocks, sports betting, or you find one that has it all. My cook group has personally helped me grow as a botter, and I wouldn’t be where I am today without them. I have also had the opportunity for many groupbuys to include Splashforce, Launcher bot, proxies and more on a weekly basis. Overall you want a good mature community, a great owner, and a comfortable environment so that you are given the opportunity to learn. However with every good thing, there are some bad apples. There are some groups you should stay away from. So ensure to do your research !
  7. Profiles – Capital one Eno, Privacy, & Citibank are all excellent VCC providers. In order to maximize success ratio on the bigger footsites, YS releases, and avoiding cancellations, educate yourself on jigging profiles, and spend the necessary time to setup a catchall/create accounts, j1gging your addresses/phone numbers correctly to ensure you don’t hit a 100 clip just to get them all cancelled. There are many opinions out there on what information is required to j1g. Botting takes time, and its not just about setting up tasks and clicking go. You will spend hours of preparation ensuring your billing profiles are created/and organized. Microsoft excel is an essential tool. Utilize it.
  8. Technique – Understand proxy protection, anti-bot, and take the time to research how each bot works. What method do they use to checkout/pass splash etc. What modes are available within the bot, and how do they differ. What delays should I use? The major types of releases you will encounter online is going to be Mesh, Shopify, Footsites, Supreme, & Yeezy Supply. Shopify is by far the most difficult to learn since the way you bot UNDFTD will vary from the way you bot Kith. If available don’t put all your tools in one bag, having a contingency backup is beneficial. Bots will flop. It is the nature of the game, and you will take Ls. Don’t let it discourage you. There are millions of tasks being thrown at sometimes less than a hundred pairs, and even if your technique is perfect, there is also a percentage of luck involved. Variety is key (run a mix of specified delays if your bots support it, run a mix of ISP/DC/residential proxy providers, a mix of fast/safe tasks. Take the time to run every available release you can, even if its just with a test profile. Kith Mondays are an excellent time to test your products/ensure your proxies are working correctly. So ensure that you are using any available opportunity. There’s a misconception that if you buy a 5K bot that you will take 100 stock on every release. Someone with years of experience and great technique, proxies, etc. will outperform you everytime with a cheaper bot. So by paying more money, do not be fooled by expecting to hit 100 pairs in your first drop. It took months to find what proxies, what server, what bots worked for me and what didn’t. Updates are very consistent in the community and things change almost everyday. What is extremely successful today, may not be successful tomorrow, and so on. It’s a fast paced game, and this is not for the weak-hearted. It takes hours of dedication and research, there are no shortcuts. Bots are extremely volatile, I have seen Wrath go from 300-500 to 2k in just a matter of weeks. I have also seen Balko go from 2.2k to 1.1k so be careful. This is why renting is highly preferred.
  9. Don’t get scammed– I cannot emphasize this enough. Use a middleman if conducting transactions in Botmart/Tidal. If something sounds too good to be true, It most likely is. Whatbot, Hyperrrafflebot, and SWFT are non-resellable. SWFT is available for purchase in Botbroker. The other two you are only going to get if 1) you win a giveaway or 2) Groupbuy. Bot flipping and bot renting are highly profitable. However, I DO NOT Recommend this for a beginner. Focus on getting good at botting. And then look at other avenues of approach, so that your overhead fees can be paid for.
  10. Closing – By the way buying bots for retail is extremely competitive. I have paid for each bot I own hundreds or thousands over retail. In closing, I’d like to leave you with the top performing bots in each category, this is only MY personal opinion as of current performance: Shopify – Cyber, Balko, Wrath, Kodai, NSB, Sole AIO Footsites – Kodai, Ganesh, Cyber, Whatbot, Wrath, Phantom, Balko Yeezy Supply/Adidas – Wrath, Splashforce, Polaris, Project Destroyer Supreme – Mekpreme, Velox, Cyber, Tohru SNKRS – TSB, BNB, Ghost ( I DO NOT SUGGEST FOR BEGINNERS) Mesh – Mbot, Hawkmesh, Cyber Bestbuy/Walmart/Target/Panini – SWFT AIO, Scottbot, Phantom Shoepalace – Launcher bot, Hayha Raffle – Hyperrafflebot (I DO NOT SUGGEST FOR BEGINNERS) Bot restock tools – Zeny, Fattye ACO Frenzy – Project Frenzy, Mango Frenzy Finishline – Kodai Gmail bot – AYCD, Kodai essentials Hibbettsports – Sole AIO
OVERHEAD COSTS
Just to give you an idea of your monthly Overhead costs if you’re brand new to botting. The amount of data or proxies you use varies from person to person/ this is my personal monthly fee.
Cook group membership (free ones available/ I don’t personally recommend) : $35-$50
DC/ISP- $50-$60
Residential premium 2-4gb - $18-$42
24/7 dedicated Server (optional and/or AWS) - $60-$130
AYCD W/autosolve (optional of not botting shopify and/or supreme) - $18-$35 or lifetime $400-$500 one time fee or Kodai essentials $22.99 a mo.
This doesn’t include any one click gmails/snkrs accounts/raffle gmails/monthly fees for bots, etc.
You are looking at a minimum of $100-$200 every month depending on how many tasks you’re running, releases, how many bots you own, etc. There should be no reason for you to be in multiple cook groups.
submitted by palmtreesandmachetes to shoebots [link] [comments]

A history of subject matter that Knicks PR team and James Dolan have felt qualified to talk about.

James Dolan released a statement today in email talking about how he did not feel that the Knicks were qualified to take a stance against police brutality and racial relations in America. Stating the following:
Subject: A message from Jim Dolan
We know that some of you have asked about whether our company is going to make a public statement about the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer. I want you to know, I realize the importance of this issue. Therefore, I want you to understand our internal position.
This is a turbulent time in our country. The coronavirus and civil unrest have taken their toll on our way of life. We at Madison Square Garden stand by our values of a respectful and peaceful workplace. We always will.
As companies in the business of sports and entertainment, however, we are not any more qualified than anyone else to offer our opinion on social matters. What's important is how we operate. Our companies are committed to upholding our values, which include creating a respectful workplace for all, and that will never change. What we say to each other matters. How we treat each other matters. And that's what will get us through this difficult time.
That's an interesting stance, considering they are now officially the only team in the NBA to not make a statement about the murder of George Floyd. But fair enough, they feel they are not qualified to talk about it. However, let's look at some things that Dolan and the Knicks PR team has felt qualified to talk about:

Richard Jefferson "lying" about turning down a contract to play for the team (a joke he made while broadcasting a game between the Knicks and Nets):

For clarification purposes, it is not true that the New York Knicks offered Richard Jefferson a contract in either the summer of 2018 or 2019.

Charles Oakley potentially being an alcoholic:

“To me, Charles has got a problem. We’ve said it before; he’s his own worst problem. People have to understand that. He has a problem with anger. He’s both physically and verbally abusive. He may have a problem with alcohol. But those problems with being physically and verbally abusive, those are problem.
“I do think Charles needs help. He can’t want the things that have happened to him since he retired. They aren’t good. He’s had many altercations. He’s been arrested. It all seems to come from his anger. Maybe he can’t remember it, but I think he’s somewhat in denial.”

Determining that a fan, through email, was an alcoholic:

Mr Bierman
You are a sad person. Why would anybody write such a hateful letter. I am.just guessing but ill bet your life is a mess and you are a hateful mess. What have you done that anyone would consider positive or nice. I am betting nothing. In fact ill bet you are negative force in everyone who comes in contact with you. You most likely have made your family miserable. Alcoholic maybe. I just celebrated my 21 year anniversary of sobriety. You should try it. Maybe it will help you become a person that folks would like to have around. In the mean while start rooting.for the Nets because the Knicks dont want you.
Respectfully
James Dolan

Writing a song of how he should have known about Harvey Weinstein

Dolan spoke about the MeToo movement and the song in an interview on Fox today, stressing that the song wasn't only about Weinstein: "All of us knew all those people, who are basically no longer active," he said. "I wonder, and I've actually talked to a lot of my other friends who know all these folks, I wonder what could I have done, what did I miss, and that's almost really what the song is—what did we miss? Because if you were friends with any of those people, a lot of them were people we never would have thought that about."
Dolan of course couldn't avoid the subject of Weinstein, who was more than just a personal friend—as Billboard notes, Dolan was part of the Weinstein Company board from mid-2015 to June 2016 and was named as a co-defendant with Weinstein in a lawsuit filed in December by six women who said they were assaulted and/or harassed by Weinstein. According to the suit, Dolan allegedly knew of Weinstein’s "pattern and practice of predatory sexual conduct toward women" due to his seat on the board.

Tripling down on Anucha Browne Sanders lying about Isiah Thomas' sexual harassment years after being found guilty

"I think a bunch of it she did [make up], yes," Dolan said, in response to allegations that Thomas used sexist and demeaning names during conversations with Browne Sanders. "I was running a business. She didn't do very well in it. She was real unhappy with that and she decided to go get a lawyer. I fired her because while she was working for me, she was coercing her own direct reports, to come down to her lawyers office, to build her case against the company."
In conclusion, James Dolan is full of shit. Who knew?
submitted by HokageEzio to NYKnicks [link] [comments]

Our Friendships Turned Febrile

Our Friendships Turned Febrile
-- Contains Heavy Non-Consensual Ballbusting --
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
His balls pulsated against her outstretched fingers, his oval orbs heaving up and down in his smooth, shaved scrotum. It was an appropriate description, seeing that she wasn’t moving any of her extremities, simply observing his delicate danglers. The skin around the tip of his penis had parted, his taunt erection bulging against his epidermis.
Emily gently pinched John’s epididymis, causing him to wince. Besides the restraints tying him to the foot of the bed, her warm breath and curvaceous breasts kept him in check. If common logic were to be applied, his justification for bondage would have been fragile to say the least. But with the prospect of her warm tongue on his twitching member, and the insatiable allure of her womanly figure, he had abandoned natural rationale.
Emily and John, until just an hour ago had been childhood friends. Growing up in the same neighborhood, they would see each other regularly. Whether it be walking to, or from school, socializing, projects, they could always be found together in some degree.
She pressed her index finger into John’s spongy penis, sliding it into his foreskin. The bound male moaned as Emily sifted her finger under his frenulum. John ejected a light load of pre-cum. He bucked his hips up and down, trying to get Emily to scratch his insatiable itch. The black-haired beauty receded her finger and brought it to her face. John’s member was violently twitching, the feeling of her delicate fingers hadn’t quite left yet.
“I’m impressed, you wash this thing, don’t you?”
Emily stood from her crouched position, wiping her lubed finger on her pink yoga pants. She bounced her way across her carpet, humming. John instinctively began to buck his hips, craving Emily. As she hopped along, her peachy ass bobbed and jiggled, displaying what must have been years of rigorous exercise, combined with exemplary genetics. John’s cravings had taken the better of him, as he imagined her cheeks consuming his cock. He pulled against his restraints. If only he could touch himself, he would explode over her white carpet in an instant. It was her condition, however, that he be rendered immobile.
Both of his hands had been strapped tightly to the foot of her bed frame, while either of his feet were strapped to kettlebells. While his lower appendages still had some autonomy, he couldn’t bother himself to resist.
Emily bent over, revealing her lack of panties, as well as her own set of low hangers. Her breasts were abnormally large for her frame. John was kicking himself, feeling he had been cheated in a way. Him and Emily had known each other for the better part of a decade; since meeting, they’re bodies had both undergone extraordinary changes. Only now, did he realize her gifts. Usually covered in a thick snow coat, he had never seen her body on full display, until now. Her swaying tits were barely contained by her white sports bra. Perfectly in symmetry with her spayed legs, they appeared as an exaggerated extension of her covered pussy.
“Em.” John strained. Involuntarily, he shot another spurt of pre-cum.
The transparent liquid trickled down the back of his shaft, lubricating his balls.
“Come one John, be patient, I told you I was going to suck your dick today, I just need to do a little something first.” She cooed.
Emily unzipped her black backpack. John stared intently at her figure. Unconsciously, he began to thrust to her body's natural rhythm. John’s feminine friend pulled four items from her school sack; her pink journal, pen, lime-green water bottle, and a blue-ribbon tape measure. The smiling Em skipped back to her bound man. Her massive mounds didn’t appear real. Even in the confines of her white sports bra, their movements appeared comical.
She did a goofy somersault. In another setting, John would have chided her awkwardness. It resembled a tumble more than a well-executed roll. In a quick reflection, John couldn’t blame her. While her proportions awakened pure lust in the boy, he could still note the pure impracticality on her figure in an athletic sense.
In passing conversations, they had discussed physical exercise. To think that she could manage anything with her overly exaggerated figure was incredible. Her breasts were nearly double the width of her waste! Her shapely ass was a completely different question. Lunging out, she skidded dangerously close to John’s genitals, her head inches away from his low hanging orbs. Instinctively, John aimed to protect his testicles. Thankfully, her high surface created enough friction to halt her movements. Emily tilted her head up, shooting John a mix between a nervous smile and a devious one. His arms were pulling against his restraints again, proving to her that he couldn’t defend himself if need be. A gradual wet spot began to manifest in her tight pants, turning the once light pink into a darker shade.
As if it never happened, Emily sat up, scooching closer to John. Cross legged, she reached her delicate hand out to his softening penis. Instantly, his virility was reignited, her hand absorbing his sweating cock. She gave him three soft tugs, then two intense, then alternated, again and again and again. John bucked as if his life depended on it, desperately trying to reach climax as fast as possible. He couldn’t handle it anymore; Emily’s exposed figure had contacted his own primal urges.
“Ahh, John. I need to do something first,” Emily waved.
She removed her sloppy fingers from John’s penis, but kept it hovering above. He squeaked, bucking harder and harder, mashing the tip of his head against her flat palm. Quickly, a thick mucus pre-cum built between the two of them; Emily giggled, then removed her hand completely. John let out a pathetic wail. He didn’t expect Em to know, but he was on the verge of losing his seed, several more thrusts, and he would have been there. Blue-balled, he whined like a little pup.
“I told you, didn’t I? I want to do something before I suck you off John! You want my mouth, don’t you?” Em said, stretching the side of her mouth with her pre-cum covered hand.
John’s personal lube dripped down her hand, onto the greater top portion of her breasts, giving them a new shine. Em giggled again, wiping the rest of the clear liquid onto and in-between her unnatural mounds. She sucked the tip of her index seductively, her cloudy hazel eyes peering into John’s desperate stare.
“Alright Em, I’ll play along a bit longer,” John nodded.
“Great!” Emily giggled.
Truly, both were aware of John’s discomfort, but for their out ulterior motives, both parties kept silent. The raven-hair Emily picked at her journal, flipping to back pages. In her other hand, she squeezed her bottle, ejecting a clear stream of water into her mouth.
“I’ve never seen you use that journal before Em.” John whimpered.
In a semi-hysteria, he focused on the mundane to distract from his own excitement.
“Don’t lose that boner!” Emily called.
Forcefully, she gripped his long shaft, tugging it roughly. John arched his back and moaned out. His low dangling balls bounce between the soft portion of her welled fist and the creamy bristles of the carpet. He moaned out again, another glob of pre-cum dribbling out. Emily stopped tugging and wiped the liquid onto John’s flat stomach.
“Em, this is just cruel.” John pleaded.
“I’ll be done quick, I promise.”
Emily pulled the blue-ribbon tape measure taunt, and placed it at the base of his cock.
“You want to measure my cock?” John asked.
“Basically.” Emily shrugged.
“Why?”
Emily wrapped the ribbon around three different sections of John’s penis. At the base, the head, and the girthiest section. In a surprising move, she reached out for his dangling testicles. Firmer than John would have expected, she tightened her grip.
“Ouch.” John grunted.
“Don’t be a baby.” Emily chided.
She knelt down lower, making sure the ribbon was even as it wrapped around John’s compressed testicles. The bound boy was able to stave off the unpleasant feeling, focusing on her toned back and protruding rear. Straining against the pink elastic yoga pants, it appeared heart shaped.
“Got it!” Emily said with glee.
Quickly, she jotted down John’s specific measurements. John gave her a disapproving look, not that she minded.
“Wait just one more second, I need to take a picture too!”
“A picture?” John gasped.
His heart leapt up. For whatever reason, the idea of his dick being in the hands of Emily terrified him, that was, unless it was physically in her hands. In the time John had come to know Emily, she had made a particular impression. As much as he cherished her as a friend, she was known to spread misinformation or rumors. In some extreme cases, it would lead to someone crying in the halls or class, sometimes leaving school for a few days. A documented photo of his dick in her hands didn’t sit right; yet, he couldn’t do anything. Emily snapped the photo before he could further object.
“Why’d you take my picture?”
“Taking your measurement is one thing, but a dick-pic is a little more intimate. Don’t worry, I’ll crop out your face before sharing it with school.” she giggled.
John wasn’t able to tell if she was joking or not.
“Why do you want to do any of this?”
“Why does anyone do anything?” she said dismissively.
She tossed her phone to the far reach of her white carpet, and plopped down between John’s legs.
“Seriously.” John scolded, searching for a truth.
The bound boy's member had softened completely, yet Emily didn’t seem to mind, perhaps she was only interested in the maximums.
“I don’t know, I like it. Don’t kink shame,” she pouted, going over John’s measurements again.
“I’m not kink shaming you,” John defended. “But you say it’s a kink?”
“Yeah?” Emily said, tilting her head to the side.
“So, you like to do this to other guys?”
“Of course I do!” Emily laughed. “You know John, for being so compliant, I think you deserve a specific stroking.”
John’s penis expanded, the tip escaping his foreskin restraint. More pre-cum flowed from his slit, re-lubing his impressive appendage.
“I mean I’m going to stroke your ego.” Emily laughed. “Your length is an impressive 8 and ¾ of an inch.”
John couldn’t hide his disappointment. Emily picked up on his displeasure.
“What? You think it’s too small? It’s rather impressive, of all the other boys I've done this too, you’re the longest by far.”
“I guess that’s cool,” John mumbled. “But I already knew my measurement.” He said sheepishly.
“Your girth isn’t bad either, 5 inches at the base, 6 at the most, 5 and ½ at the tip. Bet you didn’t know that.”
“Some of it.”
“Well how about your balls?”
“My testicles?”
“It’s a little lacking to be honest, 6-inch circumference.”
John felt his face redden. While Emily had pointed out an arbitrary measurement, he couldn’t help but feel embarrassed. Of course, Emily picked up on it, a slight curl building at the corner of her red lips.
“How about this, ask me for another boy's measurement at school.”
“What?”
“Ask me, I bet I could tell you.”
“I’m not interested in dicks.”
“But you are interested in me touching your dick.” Emily smirked.
Emily patted John’s penis with her open palm, recharging it in a way. Seeing what her aim was, John obliged.
“Ken Culver from third period, you’ve talked to him, right?”
Emily giggled while flipping several pages in her journal.
“I didn’t know you were into Ken, if I had known, I wouldn’t have touched him.”
“Fuck off.” John grumbled.
“Here it is. 5 ½ inches, 4 at the base, 4 max, 4 ¼ at the tip. His testicles had a circumference of 8 inches, that last measurement is quite impressive.”
“Should I take your word for it?”
“Under what premise would you have to assume that I would lie? Also, why did you ask for Ken’s, huh?” Emily grinned.
John rolled his eyes.
“I don’t know, he’s been missing from school for the past week, guess it was just on my mind.”
The atmosphere shifted completely. Something had changed. Emily became uncharacteristically quiet. She placed her journal and water bottle to the far side of John’s bound leg. Clearing her throat, she suppressed a smile. Seductively, slowly, she bent closer and closer to John’s cock. She placed her fingers on his thighs, clawing them gently. There was a primal hunger in her eyes.
“I’m going to start, are you ready?” Emily asked.
Before John could give an answer, she began to pleasure him. She pressed her nose on the wet tip of his penis. John instinctively jolted up, sliding his cock to the side of her button nose. Emily exhaled, her warm breath wrapping around John’s slippery cock.
“Oh, Em, you’re so good.” John moaned, overcome with raw pleasure.
“I know.” Emily said, simultaneously wrapping her pink tongue around John’s shaft.
She lapped his wide penis, tickling his sensitive glans, causing him to squirm. Next, she incorporated her hands. Gripping his lower shaft, she lathered the tip of his dick using her tongue as a propeller. Her free hand began to work his swelling testicles. Focusing one at a time, she lightly pinched his right and left; John produced several squeaks as a result. Taking it as positive feedback, Emily increased her overall intensity. Her hot mouth enveloped the top portion of his members. She squeezed his shaft simultaneously.
Gradually, but roughly, Emily increased the grip she had on John’s pulsating testicles. Toying with them as she saw fit. They were completely at her mercy; all John could do was wallow in the pleasure she was producing for him. Emerging from that pleasure, came a twinge of pain, emanating from his stomach. It caused him a minor discomfort, but he didn’t care. He bucked his hips rapidly, thrusting his penis into Emily’s mouth. In response, the busty girl pulled on John’s scrotum. Her index and thumb constricted his nut cords, relegating his testicles to the bottom of his elastic sack. The creamy rug added an extra level of stimulus as she yanked them to the carpet.
John barely noticed; the intense head-polish Emily was giving in the back of her throat was the only thing he could reasonably comprehend.
“Em, I’m really close.” John moaned.
Emily took John’s words at face value, preparing for his imminent explosion. She increased her cadence, taking his entire length back and forth. John let out a high pitch groan as his testicles attempted to retract. Held firm by Emily, they weren't going anywhere. In a circular motion, she ground John’s testicles into the carpet.
“Emily, I’m cumming!” John exclaimed.
John came, his seed spilling out of his throbbing slit. Overcome with pure pleasure, he threw his head back. His thick white milk nearly pierced the back of Emily’s throat; ropes and ropes spewed out. Emily didn’t stop. She continued to suck him off, tugging his testicles further and further down.
“Hey, Emily, stop.” John pleaded, thrashing.
Voraciously she consumed him. Flipping his softening penis with her tongue. At the same time, she hunkered down on his precious orbs, flattening them against the floor with her encompassing palm.
“Please stop.” Strained John.
Emily showed no signs of slowing down. His words seemed to encourage her. Running the risk of tearing his member, he rotated his hips side to side, hoping to escape Emily’s brutal suction. All at once, Emily released herself from John, letting his strained testicles slap against his pelvis. Sticky strings of cum dripped down from her mouth onto her carpet. John’s withering cock twitched slightly; his nuts nearly sucked up into his abdomen. He pulled against his restraints, curling from the pain emanating from his lower stomach. He groaned.
Emily seemed to take a sort of pleasure from it all. She leaned back, letting the strings of white cum fall onto her smooth breasts. John tilted his head back, staring at the warm glow of the light saturating the pastel room.
“John. Look.” Emily smiled.
The bound boy, still in his daze, tilted his head down, not quite able to meet her eyes. However, her hanging breasts were still well in view. If his penis hadn’t just been put through the metaphorical ringer of Em’s mouth, the reaction would have been instant. Emily reached out to John with her sticky fingers, pressing on his chin, she forced his eyes up to hers.
“Did you like it?” Emily asked, licking her lips.
“Yes.” John said.
Despite his discomfort in the current moment, he couldn't deny the euphoric experience he had undergone in Emily’s room. A feeling he wouldn't forget as long as he lived. While it was the first time he had ever received a blowjob, he understood the skill required to evoke such a powerful orgasm.
“Glad you enjoyed it.” Emily smiled.
She wiped the rest of John’s cum on her yoga pants and stood. John tilted his head back again, purely to marvel at her looming breasts. He was also given an ample helping of her general shape. Up close, her abnormal proportions deviated further. Her smooth, exposed navel contrasted heavily with her firm, yet supple bosom. Against her polished skin, her pink yoga pants gouged into her fleshy hips. She stretched, accentuating her rounded breasts. John, despite his daze, craved her bare-skin. He embraced the idea of her naked body rubbing against his own, the things he would do for that were beyond the scope of words.
“I’m going to clean up.” She yawned. “But don’t worry, I’ll be right back.” She winked, turning to her side.
With the same hop in her step, she exited to the left, through a lime-green door, leaving John alone with his thoughts. He sighed, relaxing his entire lower half. As his euphoria faded, the twinge within his stomach grew. John groaned out, unable to sate the urge of crumpling up into a ball.
During his legendary blowjob, Emily hadn’t gone easy on him. In its current state, his penis felt like mush, he found the idea of an erection in the moment impossible. He focused slightly lower, to his taught testicles. They were still throbbing slightly, as if they were still under the same pressure Emily had been exerting. John groaned again, the ever-present discomfort fully manifesting.
“Emily must like it rough." John chuckled to himself, somehow trying to rectify his discomfort, as well as Emily’s actions.
“I’m back!” Emily cooed.
She sauntered back to John, a white hand towel on her shoulder. Her face was free of any fluids, she had cleaned herself. Besides several stains on her pink pants, and a conspicuous wet spot between her legs, she was just as she was 30 minutes ago, when she led John into her room.
In most months, everything was either frozen, or covered in snow; there wasn’t much of a distinction. With the low temperature, came the need for appropriate attire. John was biting his tongue, invoking some form of punishment on himself. All that time, he hadn’t considered what lay beneath Emily's many layers. Her body was drop dead gorgeous. Even her face was something to be lost in. Was it an issue with his subconscious, not recognizing Emily for the true woman she was? John found it self-evident; it took her to offer a blowjob on the way back from school for him to truly notice it. But with that blunt invitation, came the rapid ripples of lust and desire. He wanted to touch her more; he wasn’t against the idea of even dating her.
“That was fun John, I’ve never had a dick that big in my mouth before. To think I would find it attached to my closest friend.” Emily giggled. “But like I said, your balls are lacking a little something.”
John’s face became flushed in a deep red, hearing Emily’s critical words. It also struck him as odd, being caught up in how she perceived him. Any time before, he would have shrugged it off as playful banter, but her tone was unlike anything he had heard before. It was as if she blamed him for something.
“Can you untie me Em?” John said, clearing his throat.
Silently, Emily strode over to one the kettlebells tying John down. Instead of unfastening the strap, she picked up her water bottle. Slowly, she walked back to her backpack, placing it with care.
“Hey John, why did you want me to suck your dick?” Emily asked bluntly.
John hadn’t considered the reason.
“Well, you’re very pretty, I guess.” John stuttered
“Because I’m pretty, huh? Do you like me then?”
“I mean... Why did you want to give me a blowjob?”
Emily chuckled, her rotund breasts reciprocating the motion.
“Somehow, I don’t think you would understand, John.”
“I mean, why now? Do you like me?” John asked.
The bound boy’s heart rate increased. He hoped the answer would be yes. Given all the evidence of affection, he was blindly guided to that conclusion.
“I’ll answer that question in just a second.” Emily cooed, her white teeth on display. “But for you, it may feel a pinch longer.”
Pressing her back bare foot into the fuzzy floor, she bolted at John. Her eyes had an unstoppable, determined look. While she was clearly speeding, her movements became lagged to the boy. Her pronounced mounds of flesh swayed in a mesmerizing way. However brief the moment, John fell under a spell, hyper-examining every inch of her body. Emily planted her petite foot into the floor, winding her other behind her. In a single fluid motion, she launched a kick, her entire body working to complete the one action.
Emily’s narrow foot blasted John’s descending balls. Her nimble toes caressed his danglers at first, then dug into them, punting them upwards. His nuts flew into his soggy cock, sending his bodily liquids spraying out. Droplets fell on his stomach, the carpet, and Emily’s pink shin. She laughed outright, her body heaving from her hysteria, but over John’s manic scream, it was incomparable.
John thrashed as hard as he could, attempting to undo the restraints holding his arms and legs in place. While his arms were too tightly bound, his legs attempted to unite.
“Wait John.” Emily said, firmly placing one of her feet on John’s sliding shin.
She slid her other foot out, keeping John’s legs parted. His reddening testicles were on full display for her to admire.
John tilted his thighs inwards, obscuring Emily’s view from his precious jewels.
“Emily, what the fuck is wrong with you?” John coughed.
The tortured boy wailed in pain. The straps welding him to the foot board; the more he struggled, the deeper they dug into his skin. However powerful his will, he was unable to fold his body; his only conceivable action was to cry. Through watery eyes, John attempted to appeal to Emily’s emotions. He looked into her hazel eyes, pleading.
“John, you little bitch.” She growled. “Spread your legs right now, or you’re going to regret it so much.”
Her gaze was peerless, devoid of remorse. John had never seen her so angry, not in the 11 years they had known each other. Still, he wouldn’t budge.
“Stay right there.” Emily said.
Swiftly, she trotted to her bright orange cabinet on the other side of the room, humming. She retrieved something particular from the bottom drawer. Purposefully, she stuck her rear out, hoping to arouse John. She pulled out two winding loops of silky rope. When she returned to John, she couldn’t help but laugh at his pathetic state. His entire body was covered in a cold sweat. While it was the appropriate response after receiving a direct punt to the testicles, Emily found his reaction extremely amusing.
“Emily, please let me go, this isn’t funny.” John whimpered.
Still humming to herself, Emily crouched next to John, ignoring his pleads for her to stop. Gently, she placed one of her petite hands on John’s straining thigh. She slid the rope between his clamped legs.
“You’re just going to make things worse on yourself, you know John.”
“Stop, stop.” John huffed, hyperventilating.
“Almost done.”
Emily tied a strong knot after wrapping the rope around John’s thigh several times.
“See? This isn’t so bad!” Emily smiled, pulling the silk taunt.
Only then did Emily's actions sink into John; she was trying to open his legs. He thrashed against her pulling force, turning his body in the direction she was trying to pull his leg.
“Hold still.” She grunted.
Emily thrusted her foot into John’s squishy thigh, while simultaneously prying apart the other one. The bound boy was unable to resist against Emily’s abnormal strength. John had always known Emily to be robust, but she was completely overpowering him! Still struggling with the pain of her foot defiling his manhood, he was helpless. Emily tied the other end of the silk rope to the foot of the bed.
“Time for the other one.” Emily cooed.
Emily took the other rope and wrapped it around John’s loose thigh, repeating the process. Now, completely bound, John’s hot testicles were completely exposed.
“I really like you like this, John.” Emily giggled.
She stood between John’s pried legs; her hazel eyes trained on his sagging jewels. She licked her lips. Without hesitation, she launched her arched foot into John’s tormented testicles. The results were immediate. John’s entire body spasmed, overcome with unfathomable pain. Emily shuddered with pleasure, her wet spot growing. She felt his squishy, yet simultaneously hard testicles slide and scrunch against her polished foot, bringing her to near-orgasmic levels of euphoria.
“Emily, please stop it!” John cried.
“Nope!”
Emily shot another direct, compromising kick into John’s swelling testicles and ravaged penis. His leathery sack and vulnerable balls split between her foot, compressing against his pelvis. Before he could even attempt to recover or compose himself, she brought her heel down, slamming his orbs into the carpet. Wide mouthed, John lost all sense of himself, as well as Emily, that was, besides her invasive foot. She ground the ball of her foot in a circular motion, before using his precious bits as a spring.
She was relentless, treating herself in lieu of John’s pain, indulging in her pleasure. She stepped back, before launching another furious strike into his danglers. Seeing John on the brink of unconsciousness, Emily abruptly stopped her strikes. Her heart was in her head, the constant thumping nearly drowning out John’s desperate cries. Emily caressed her breasts, the overwhelming flesh and fabric overwhelming her relatively small hands.
She lost her patience, John’s agonizing pain tickling the sadist within. Emily propelled her arched foot again, and again, and again. John’s orbs twisted within his red scrotum. No matter how chaotic their movements were, Emily’s tyrannical foot and curled toes ravaged his sensitive nerves, bludgeoning each of them equally. John was a mess; having lost all strength, his arms and legs were motionless, limp like his penis. His tears rolled over his scrunched face, combining with the dried pre-cum on his stomach.
Emily continued to pound John’s nuts, her cadence becoming predictable. Less than a second after a strike, another would succeed it. John couldn’t fathom it any longer; he pleaded with himself to lose consciousness. But simply, his body wouldn’t allow it, forcing him to savor Emily’s heartless testicle torture. Emily let out a feminine grunt every time her arch devastated John’s swelling nuts. It was completely disproportionate to the true striking force. Each time John’s crying testicles were bullied into his pelvis, his body would shake as a whole. Emily’s entire queen-sized bed shook with her precise kicks, funneled through John’s precious organs.
Emily smiled down at John, mostly at his swollen nut-sack, admiring her footwork. She fell to her knees, then her stomach, her sticky breasts creating a ramp, keeping her head level with John’s shriveled penis.
“Holy fuck John, that was incredible.” Emily panted.
The aroused Emily’s sensual breath caressed John’s genitals. Even that caused him to wince, her clutching exhale gripping his pulsating testicles.
“Your balls sagged so much after I gave you that blowjob, I couldn’t help but go extra hard on them.”
Emily lightly caressed the bottom of John’s tormented testicles with her shaky hand. Unable to hear his groans and screams over her own beating heart.
“Emily, let me go.” John wailed.
Emily smirked, and slapped John’s danglers. John let out another pint of tears.
“John, your balls are so hot, so beautiful. Look at how large they’re becoming.”
John’s childhood friend snatched his nuts with one hand, squeezing as if she was trying to fuse them into one. John thrashed again, pure pain radiating through his body. His raw nut meat bulged between Emily’s fingers. With her second hand, Emily prodded his exposed meat, where her other fingers wouldn’t reach.
“Look at this little guy too.” Emily giggled.
The busty girl pinched John’s flabby foreskin with her thumb and index, lifting the flaccid penis off her handiwork.
“He kept getting in the way of my kicks, maybe he wants some action too?”
Emily invaded John’s foreskin again, sifting her fingers around and under his sensitive glans. John groaned and instinctively bucked. Emily pulled her finger out, examining her find.
“Look, I found white gold!” she snickered, lapping John’s semen from her finger.
Her hand returned to his member, stroking his tip. John continued to convulse. After the insurmountable amounts of pain his exposed genitals had received from Emily’s kicks, the waves of rolling pleasure felt like a completely new experience, one he had never had before. Emily hunkered down on John’s jewels, pulling them lower and lower. Simultaneously, she increased the cadence of her strokes, her hand appearing as a blur.
Despite his gut and nut-busting pain, he managed to hold an erection, Emily skillful hand surpassing the limits of his defined bliss. He was full mast, his member towering over Emily’s shiny face, casting a long shadow. On the horizon, John could see pods of whales. That, or it was the spots blotting his vision. Either way, they were close, their blowholes primed. John tilted his head down to Emily, her ferocious swells rocking his craft. John was so close to seeing the blowhole gush, the surge was within his scope. Emily pulled down on his anchor, flattening his orbs on the carpet, securing his position. John groaned, hope of blowing his load fading into oblivion.
Emily wiggled her ass, laughing as she continued to smother John’s testicles into her now sticky carpet. She had found a sweet spot, where she could stroke his bulging cock as fast as she wanted, without the worry of him spurting his seed unannounced. John had run out of tears, now, in pure hysteria, he thumped his head against the hickory foot board, begging for unconsciousness.
Emily stopped everything, taking her hands off John’s cock and balls. John yelped and bucked at the same time. Half of him wanted to be pushed over the edge by Emily’s hand, while the other wanted to curl up forever. He bucked his hips, trying to acquire enough stimulus from the air. His testicles slapped against his taint as he furiously fucked the air. Overall, it brought him more pain than pleasure, his sore nuts slapping against himself.
“Here, let me help you John.” Emily cooed.
The ball-busting beast blew along the underside of John’s upright cock, sending lube dribbling out of his slit. Emily’s eyes tracked the slow crawl of the clear liquid down to John’s swaying testicles, reigniting her passion for them.
“John, this has been the best 7 minutes of my life. The blowjob was a nice challenge, taking something that long. But the thrashing I gave you, the motions and screams you made, it was on an entirely different level.”
John’s eyes bulged out of his head. It had only been 7 minutes? Had Emily really kept track? If pressed, John wouldn’t have been able to construct a sentence conveying the time he had perceived.
“I’m not finished though, and neither are you.”
Emily gripped John’s cock as if her life depended on it. A clear stream of pre-cum ejected from John’s red tip, as she slid her constricting hand up his shaft. On the downstroke, Emily struck John’s balls. She held her welled fist in that position, relishing in John’s pained screams. She continued to stroke, over and over, making sure her fist struck her prisoner’s swelling nuts.
John ignored the pain to the best of his ability, focusing on Emily’s diligent hand bringing him waves of pleasure. John, through the blood rushing in his ears, heard a high pitch squeal. He couldn’t discern if it came from him or his torturer. All he could fathom was the monstrous load spewing from his sore penis. Rope after rope arced over Emily’s head, landing on her curvy, pink butt.
“You’re so lively!”
Emily didn’t stop stroking. It was as if she hadn’t realized John had already unloaded all of his testicle's contents. John’s mind broke. His eyes rolled into the back of his head, as pleasure turned into pain, adding another layer to his deep nut-ache. It took Emily a moment to realize that John was unresponsive, and even when she did, she continued to milk his withering cock, until his slippery penis was ungraspable. She inhaled John’s musk, licking bits of cum off her hand.
“Wakey wakey!”
Emily slammed the back of her sticky hand into John’s balls. His entire body twitched, encouraging Emily to continue. She batted them about like a curious cat with a ball of yarn, treating it like her prey. Given the limited amount of space she had, her uppercuts lacked impact, instead, she focused on pressing them deeper into his pelvis, as well as smashing the sticky scrotum into John’s spayed thighs. Over time, her amusement dwindled; John hadn’t responded for the past 3 minutes. She pursed her lips, and stood.
“I guess even if I do this with you John, it isn’t fun when you don’t make a sound.” Emily shot a glance at the analog clock to her right, biting her lip. “I guess I should clean you up, after I do one more thing.”
Emily reached around John’s limp leg, where her blue ribbon was. She placed her hands under John’s slumped sack, caressing his testicles. Lightly, she felt around the contents within; her heart leapt out of her chest when she realized they were both still intact. She wanted to kiss John right there. Surely, she thought his bits wouldn’t have been able to survive her onslaught. Pulling his still intact testicles to the bottom of his scrotum, Emily wrapped the tape measure around the meatiest portion; she gasped when she saw the number. She wrote it down, still shaking.
“I need to take a picture.” Emily heaved, scrambling over to her phone.
Returning to John, she prodded his kiwi sized testicles. She snapped tens of photos, each accentuating a certain angle each time. Near the end of her spree, Emily snapped a selfie with the re-emerging John. The bound boy blinked several times, watching Emily take pictures of his shriveled cock.
“Em.” John moaned.
“Oh John, you’re awake again? How do your balls feel? Are they hot? I know I am. Are they sore yet?” Emily giggled. She retrieved a photo from her phone, eager to show John her handiwork up close. “See look, there’s a little bruising! But don’t worry, I checked, they’re not broken.”
John let out a long groan, his voice crackling like dry firewood. Emily let out her same giggle, triggering something within John. It was the same high pitch sound she produced when tenderizing his nuts. The same sound when John would tell her jokes at school, it was the same as it had been for the past 11 years; they were identical. Emily bit her bottom lip, her hunger displaying itself again. She wrapped her slender, warm arms around John's neck, pressing her tremendous breasts against her prisoner's muscular chest.
“I had a great time today.” Emily said, licking John’s neck. “You know, when I was batting your balls around, I was worried I was going to break you. But I never wanted to do that, you’re different from the other boys, I knew it. When Ken Culver got his balls broken, I was afraid of doing it again, but you gave me confidence.”
Emily brought one of her arms down to John’s nether regions, tenderly fondling John’s aching orbs, bringing him gut-tearing pain; all John could do was let Emily violate him, unable to take any initiative.
“Your testicular circumference is 9 inches. When I worked Ken, while his testicles were ruptured, it was 12 inches. And as far as I’m concerned, you have a much higher potential.”
Emily gently pinched John’s epididymis, like she had done at the start. She smiled, landing a kiss on John’s chin, before standing.
“The truth might be John, I do like you. I put my entire back into that blowjob, and my kicks.”
Emily pulled her raven hair to the side, picking out strands of semen from it, flicking it to the carpet. She crouched down, her breasts providing a cushion as she pressed herself against her own knees. Slowly, she unstrapped John from his confines.
“I hope you get better John, better soon. I can’t wait for it.” Emily grinned.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading my story! I would really appreciate feedback/criticism. I’ve just started getting into the ballbusting writing world, mainly I’ve written about what engages me in particular, without taking into account other people's interests.
Not sure if I'll extend this particular narrative in the future, but it's always possible! (I have many ideas) I would really like to know if the overall tempo is enjoyable! I tried aiming at a good mix between pain, pleasure, and narrative; also, flavorful descriptions.
If anyone feels like I could improve on any of those points, I would love to hear! I want to create interesting, fappable, cohesive stories centered around females beat’n balls :) Thanks!
submitted by Agent_BB86 to BallbustingStories [link] [comments]

Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Online gambling legislation and regulation. Starting your own gambling product.

Mobile gambling
If you plan to develop an app with the ability to deposit and withdraw real money, then such a product automatically falls into the category of gambling and you will need to license your business for successful operation.
Mobile and Web Based Apps
So let’s talk about the different kinds of online gambling apps available on web and mobile. We’ll be covering both free-play gaming apps and real money casino app games you can find for iOS, Android devices and web browsers.
Mobile gambling is more common for poker, casino, bingo, and skill games. They have advantages in terms of a low barrier to enter the market, instant liquidity, product knowledge, and marketing expertise, minimal infrastructure costs, and the ability to bring a brand to the market quickly. Consequently, this form of gambling does not sit neatly with jurisdictional boundaries. Multiple gambling opportunities are available, including betting on various events and markets, in a relatively simple format. Gambling products can also be integrated into betting on television shows or virtual racing and sports games as well as offering lotteries, bingo, poker and casino games.
Most Popular Gambling Apps
Sports betting, casino, poker and lotteries are the most popular forms of online gambling. However, other forms are available too. These include the following: Bingo, slot machines, different card games, roulette and other game of chance. One of the best things about online gambling and betting apps is the number of choices you have.

Sports Betting

Betting means making or accepting a bet on the outcome of a race, competition, or other event or process, the likelihood of anything occurring or not occurring, or whether anything is or is not true. Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
Today most sports betting is done via mobile-friendly sites and apps.
The introduction of live betting for sports like soccer and tennis means that bettors who are sitting inside stadiums watching games can now pick up their mobile devices and find real-time betting value with the best sports gambling apps. This has really unlocked a door to the future of sports gambling and the popularity of online gambling apps.

Poker

Many sites offer free poker, where no real money is wagered, although in some cases players can accumulate credits that can be exchanged for prizes. This is the case why people are going to play for real money. There is an ongoing debate over whether poker should be classified as a game of chance or skill. The parameters of legal poker playing are still unclear and differ between jurisdictions. Since you are not gambling with money, I’m pretty sure under the law it’s just a video game for now.

Blackjack

Blackjack is the game of choice to many high-rollers and do you know why? Because blackjack is a challenging, logic and skill-based game where your thinking, strategy, and calculations determine the outcome of the game.

Bingo

Bingo is one of the most popular and socially accepted games in the world. Bingo is a traditional form of gambling that has seen considerable innovation in recent years. It is also the only form of gambling recognized in the Gambling Act that does not have a specific statutory definition, the Act providing simply that “bingo” means “any version of that game, irrespective of by what name it is described”. Bingo must be played as an equal chance game. For game to be classed as “bingo” it must meet the Act’s definition of “equal chance gaming” (as opposed to casino gaming). Thus, it: must not involve playing or staking against a bank, and must be a game in which the chances are equally favorable to all participants in the sense that each ticket or chance has the same probability of success as any other.
Licensed bingo is a well-regulated and socially responsible form of gambling that takes place in a safe environment. Many sites offer multiple forms of bingo with different features, types of games, and costs of play. These sites often cater specifically for women and some research suggests that they may appeal to markets who would not typically engage in traditional forms of gambling.

Slots

Slot machine is one of the most beloved game among the gambling community and it has been a part of the industry for a long time. They provide fun and entertainment and their simplicity allows gamers to start playing at once. This can play out in different ways depending on the machine you’re playing. For instance, there’s Pick a Fortune, a five-reel, 20 line game that puts players right in the studio of a television game show, including the potential to play a Deal or No Deal-style bonus round. A super trend over the past few years is mobile-friendly slot games. These apps and websites were developed to enable players to enjoy their favorite games on their smartphones at any time. Another dominant slot trend is licensed branded slots that are based on popular movies, television, and musicians.
Virtual Money vs Real Money
Let’s find out the difference between social gambling and real money gambling, as well as the differences between gambling through apps and gambling through a web browser. It can be quite confusing trawling through all the casinos, slots, and lotteries available, both through your mobile web browser as well as through mobile app stores, in the form of downloadable apps.

Virtual money

The main difference between virtual money and real money gambling is that the in-game virtual currency in social games and gambling-type games is used only like credits that are not paid out as winnings or anything given to player in cash, making these games exempt from gambling regulations.
Virtual money is loaded on user game accounts via in-app purchases in mobile applications or the game balance funding from a card via web based applications.

Real money gambling

Real money gambling via your mobile device is only allowed in countries where laws have been passed that allow for this type of gambling online, or there are no laws in place that prevent it. The payment systems are the legal way of services payment in the gambling app, performing as the intermediary between the gambling facility and the client. With their help, users replenish deposits and withdraw funds to personal accounts in financial institutions. If the application uses the payment system of a well-known brand, that gives players additional confidence in the resource. Nowadays, there is a wide range of payment systems, some of which operate all over the world, other systems are oriented towards the citizens of one or several countries. A number of services accept money of different world currencies, while others allow currency transactions of one state only.
What is an Online Gambling Licensing
The internet has a global audience, there’s no single piece of legislation that covers the legality of online gambling for the entire world. Mobile gambling doesn’t typically accept customers from every single country in the world. It often focuses on certain specific regions.
Instead, most countries have their own local laws that deal with the relevant legal and regulatory issues.
Ultimately, questions of legality all go back to the location of the casino or where the website operates out of. In closed regulatory systems, such as Italy, France, and the Netherlands, licenses, and advertising rights are limited to domestic providers, which must be located within their country’s geographical boundaries and these are only permitted to offer some types of products. Some jurisdictions, for example, Norway, Sweden, and Canada legalize and regulate online gambling, but this is limited to a single site that is owned by the government. Under such an approach, the government becomes the operator and regulator and all revenues are returned to the government.
Remote gambling is generally permitted. That means that an operator that is licensed may provide gambling services to citizens in the country via all forms of remote communication (and using equipment that may be located in the country or abroad). Equally, a remote operator may be licensed to offer gambling services to citizens in any jurisdiction in the world using equipment located in the country. The law provides that, for each type of gambling (betting, gaming, and participating in a lottery), there will be two forms of license available: remote and non-remote forms (land-based). If you provide facilities for remote gambling, online or through other means, and advertise to consumers you will need a license from the licensing jurisdictions or local licensing authorities. Before an online gambling site signs up its first customer, before it accepts its first bet before the first card is dealt, it must be licensed by a recognized governmental entity.
Certain regions in the world have specific legislation in place that allows them to license and regulate companies that operate online gambling sites or provide industry services (such as the supply of gaming software). These regions are referred to as online gambling jurisdictions or licensing jurisdictions.
Depending on what type of entertainment you are going to implement in your internet establishment, you will have to apply for the corresponding permissions. Online gambling laws in Europe vary from one country to the next. The industry is well regulated in some countries and less so in others. There are several online gambling jurisdictions located in Europe. Some of these are members of the European Union (EU), and thus subject to the various rules and regulations of that body, while others are independent. Each of these jurisdictions has an authority that’s responsible for approving gambling sites for licenses that enable them to offer their services legally. They also regulate their licensees.
Countries that Provide Gambling Licensing
Today there are lots of licensing jurisdictions located all over the world and offering different terms for their customers. Depending on the country, licenses can be local, international (distributed in several countries), have a different set of documents for registration, costs of registration and further support, various operating conditions and other special details.

Which gambling license is both internationally recognized?

The government of Ireland offers casino operators, software, and service providers in the gambling industry, with a gambling license that allows gambling operators to conduct business related to casino, lotto, and other gaming-related activities. Ireland Gambling License is one of the most popular license for online casinos worldwide. Ireland has long been recognized as one of the preferred locations for Online Gambling operators to base their operations. This success has been due to a combination of factors, such as a progressive legislative system, political stability, first-rate telecommunications facilities, and a well established financial services industry. A wide range of gambling sites operates out of Ireland including sports betting, casino sites, poker, bingo, and more.
In stark contrast, the UK is the largest regulated market for online gambling in the world, and corporations are already comfortable exploiting the intersections of gambling and gaming, betting in-play, social gaming, Bitcoin, financial trading and spread betting, betting exchanges, e-sports and, most profitably, mobile gambling. 40% and 60% of online gambling in the UK took place in Gibraltar.

International licensing

Europe is home to the following online gambling jurisdictions: Alderney, Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Malta. Malta is currently the country that is most accommodating to gambling companies, and the license offers whitelisted online gambling in sports and casino games in many European territories. But takes an extreme amount of time in paperwork and background checks. Also, you pay 5% of all your gross profit to the EU.
Among countries offering gambling licensing services, the attention should be paid to Curaçao jurisdiction, which is considered to be one of the most promising for the online gaming business.
Curaçao Internet Gaming Association (also known as Curaçao eGaming) is both a regulator and a licensor, and its licensing works worldwide except Curaçao itself, USA, France and Netherlands. Using Curacao as an example, let us examine in detail the process of obtaining a license, the necessary documents and expenses.
How to get a License on Curaçao
  • Documents necessary for company registration:
  • criminal record;
  • passport scans;
  • bank account confirmation;
  • documents proving payments for utility services.
After the company is registered, an operator can apply for the license providing the following documents:
  • a document certifying the right of domain possession;
  • description of games planned to be used in the project;
  • a list indicating countries of potential operation;
  • illustration of server locations to be used in the project;
  • a copy of the agreement with a software provider.
Gambling license cost:
  • Bank account opening $1000
  • Company registration $3600
  • Company management per year $3600
  • Application processing fee $1000
  • License fee per year $4800
  • Equipment/software fee starting from $1500
  • Server maintenance per year $6000
Apart from that pay for technical support and maintenance every year. The entire license issuing process takes between 2-4 weeks. Curacao Internet Gaming Association (CIGA) also has the power to review a license and, if it finds that an operator has breached a license condition, has the power to impose a range of sanctions including revocation of the license.
Apple and Google Gambling Rules
You’ll be surprised at the limited number of real money gambling app options available on the AppStore and Google Play Store. Most real money casino gaming is done through gambler’s mobile web browsers and not through mobile gambling apps that you’ll find for iPhone and Android phones. Apple allows online gambling applications in a few forms, and not just in places where it is explicitly permitted. They do not allow any payments through the applications – those have to be done on the websites. Apple has far stricter developer guidelines for iOS apps than Google does for Android apps, so it’s fine to assume that whatever you choose to download from iTunes is usually safe, secure, and meets a certain standard.
Any real money casino in the iTunes app is required to have proper licensing and permissions before Apple will approve the app for use or downloads. While Google Play is technically regulated, it is much more loose in what can be hosted.

Apple Store

Gambling, gaming, and lotteries can be tricky to manage and tend to be one of the most-regulated offerings on the App Store. Apple has rules for apps that support real money wagering, including sports betting and poker. Those apps and lotteries must have necessary licensing and permissions in the locations where the App is used, must be geo-restricted to those locations, and must be free on the App Store, and Apple rate even simulated gambling apps as appropriate only for users 17-years-old and up.

Play Store

Google keeps the reigns tight. To be able to successfully upload apps to the Google Play store, developers need to have a valid license for the specific countries they are targeting and comply with their regulations. The app must be free to download and must prevent under-age users from gambling in the app. As a final precaution, all gambling apps are required to display prominent information regarding responsible gambling practices. This brings its policy in line with the Apple App Store.
Countries where gambling is illegal
It is also important to remember that while gambling is growing rapidly in many places, in others it is totally or partially prohibited. As well as in the majority of the US, sports betting is illegal in India, Pakistan, and China, three of the largest gambling markets in the world. Most countries have rules against gambling. Almost all Islamic countries prohibit gambling of every kind, but many turn a blind eye to online gambling or simply do not have regulations in place for this grey area.
In the United Arab Emirates, however, any kind of gambling is prosecuted. National lotteries are the only legal forms of wagering on the Asian country’s mainland. Cambodia, North Korea strictly forbids online and offline gambling amongst its own citizens but allows tourists to participate in these activities.
Qatar is the strictest country of all when it comes to gambling laws. All forms of gambling activities are considered illegal, and even sports betting is not permissible.
Starting your own gambling product
Numerous online casino platforms in the market offer fantastic casino games like bingo, poker, roulette, and many more.
If you have an idea, but don’t know where to start, we advise you begin with a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) to pilot your proof of concept for investors. MVP spotlights your core features and lets your investors know there are bigger and better things to come.
For MVP you do not need a large team, just a few people are enough to create a fully functioning prototype. In the case of successful numbers of your prototype, the further development of a full-fledged product will require more team, resources and time, however you will be sure that your development and your costs will pay off.
submitted by Fgfactory_ua to gamedev [link] [comments]

Introducing the Gnosis Tokens (GNO and OWL)

Introducing the Gnosis Tokens (GNO and OWL)
Our first post gave a short summary of our tokens’ functionality. This post is intended to give more background and reasoning for design decisions.
Note: This post is out of date. Please see The Many Faces of an $OWL blog post for the latest on OWL use cases.
Background
One of Bitcoin’s critical innovations was the addition of an incentive model to a peer-to-peer network protocol. Using a native currency and Proof of Work dispersion mechanism, Bitcoin rewards its workers and makes it incentive compatible for disparate parties to work together toward a common goal. In addition, using a native currency allows for protocol monetization. With SMTP for example, most work is done on the protocol layer, however all value is created on the application layer. The rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrencies has wasted no time in innovating this concept into a variety of “app” or “protocol” token models. In the initial “altcoin” stage of these models, tokens are dispensed similarly to Bitcoin and there is no unique utility within the network for these tokens. More recently, protocols with unique applications have iterated on this design with new dispersion mechanisms and uses for the coins within the protocol itself. Gnosis will follow this approach, hopefully with a few successful innovations of our own.
Building a sustainable ecosystem for token holders, participants, and application developers on a platform level cryptoeconomic system is difficult to achieve. Smart contracts are only as valuable as people’s trust in their verifiable execution. In order to achieve this trust, the code almost always needs to be made open source. Even if not made immediately open source, once deployed to the Ethereum network the bytecode can potentially be read and decompiled. Once this code is open source, it can be easily replicated and deployed with its own incentive model. Herein lies the dilemma: what incentivizes new participants to use the existing network, rather than copy the code and remove the fees (or set their own fees)?
The developing answer to this problem is network effect. We use Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than forks of these protocols, due to the benefits provided by interoperability with other applications, services, and participants on the network. This argument extends beyond cryptoeconomics to markets and money in general. Money and markets become more useful and competitive as more people use them. eBay charges an inordinate amount of fees, however buyers and sellers still use it due to the critical mass on the platform. This network effect enables buyers to connect to sellers and vice versa for specialized products.
While network effect serves as a fundamental component driving Gnosis platform use, we believe that it’s important to take this a step further.
The Gnosis platform will be composed of three primary layers: Core, Services, and Application.
The Gnosis Layers
https://preview.redd.it/yblr0t76n7a51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=d42a14c0e692ba55ee7cfbcff183c84649816dac
Layer One: Gnosis Core
The Core layer provides the foundational smart contracts for Gnosis use: event token creation and settlement, a market mechanism, oracle, and a management interface. This layer is and always will be free and open to use. Creating new markets is near zero marginal cost, and to remain competitive fees will have to approach zero. Instead of grasping at the maximum possible fees while remaining competitive, we feel that it is prudent to eliminate fees at the most basic contract level. It should be in every party’s best interest to use the existing open source and feeless contracts instead of deploying their own version.
Layer Two: Gnosis Services
The Gnosis Services layer will offer additional services on top of Gnosis Core and will use a trading fee model. These services will include a state channel implementation, new market mechanisms, stablecoin and payment processor integrations, open source template applications, application customization tools, and the oracle marketplace. More features may be introduced as deemed useful. These components are necessary for most consumer applications building on Gnosis.
State channels are a prerequisite for betting and financial applications requiring thousands or more transactions per second. Without stablecoins, market participants are subject to the volatility of the cryptocurrency which the market is denominated in and the event outcome that they are predicting. Application templates, customization tools, and advanced oracle selection will allow us to execute on our vision of lowering the barrier to entry for new prediction market based applications by at least two orders of magnitude. While some applications and participants will interact with Gnosis on the Core level, we are confident that these services will provide a compelling reason for Services level use.
Layer Three: Gnosis Applications
On top of the Services layer (or in some cases, just Gnosis Core) is the Gnosis application layer. These applications are primarily front-ends that target a particular prediction market use case and or customer segment. Some of these applications may be built by Gnosis, while others will be built by third parties. Our vision for Gnosis is to have a wide variety of prediction market applications built atop the same platform and liquidity pool. These applications will likely charge additional fees or use alternative business models such as market making, information selling, or advertising. As we’ll see in the next section on tokens, many Gnosis applications may include token holding as a core component of their business model.
Introducing the Tokens of the Realm: GNO and OWL
The token sold during the token launch is known as the Gnosis Token, or GNO. This is the only time that these tokens can be created, and therefore the total supply of GNO is fixed.
Fees, similar to those of a trading market, will be charged to participants on the Gnosis Services and Applications layers (but as a reminder, not the bare bones Core layer). These fees will initially be denominated in cryptocurrency, namely BTC or ETH. Gnosis seeks to not only create interesting software, but also a community of those interested in sharing their wisdom on Gnosis markets. To do this, we needed to create a model that lowers the barrier to entry for repeat users (e.g. having to pay BTC/ETH repeatedly). Therefore, in addition to paying this fee in BTC or ETH, Gnosis ecosystem participants will be able to pay the fee in OWL tokens.
Gnosis OWL can be used to pay platform fees on the Services layer, subsidize the fees of other participants, provide initial subsidies for markets, or for market trading. OWL will be pegged to $1 USD worth of fees. In this way, OWL acts as a coupon for $1 of use within Gnosis.
Gnosis tokens (GNO) are the generator for OWL creation. OWL can only be created via activating the utility of the Gnosis (GNO) tokens. This is done via a smart contract system. The smart contract works as follows: GNO token holders agree to “lock” their tokens in a smart contract (30–365 days). A multiplier is added for longer lock durations. The smart contract determines the user selected lock duration and applies that duration to a formula that is designed to regulate the supply of OWL tokens currently in use. Prior to locking their GNO tokens in the smart contract, users will be able to see exactly how much OWL they will receive as a result of executing the smart contract. Once users execute the contract, 30% of their OWL will be distributed for immediate use, and the remaining 70% will be distributed proportionally over the locked duration. Once the lock duration expires, the locked GNO ceases to generate OWL and the GNO becomes freely transferable by the holder. There is no limit (other than duration) for how many times GNO tokens may be used to create OWL.
How Can Gnosis Remain Viable if Participants Choose Not to Pay in OWL?
A core value proposition of Gnosis (and decentralization) is to guarantee future characteristics of platforms to both users and developers without relying on the trustworthiness of an operating company. In order to do this, elements including fee rates, must be codified into the software itself. It is expected that OWL will be the overwhelmingly predominant method for paying fees in the Gnosis ecosystem. In the unexpected event that this is not true, and users are paying in BTC or ETH, the platform may become vulnerable to low-fee copycats or potentially even illegal forks of the Gnosis codebase.
These alternative platforms may logically cause erosion of the Gnosis userbase, subsequently triggering justified loss of developer confidence that their created markets and applications will remain viable on Gnosis. In order to avoid this scenario, we designed a fee-reduction mechanism to bolster competitiveness of the Gnosis platform. The result is added confidence for developers and partners that Gnosis is the infrastructure they should be building markets on.
NOTE: It is unlikely that this mechanism will be used as game theory and expectations point to users predominantly paying fees in OWL. In the event this mechanism is triggered, we expect the occurrence to be extremely rare.
Two core requirements for the mechanism is that it is both decentralized and costly. The mechanism must be costly in order to eliminate spam or manipulation. The core functionality of the mechanism is as follows: All fees paid in BTC/ETH/Tokens go to an auction contract outside the control of the Gnosis team. If fees exist in the auction contract, any GNO token holder can submit a bid, bidding their held GNO against some amount of fees contained in the auction contract. If the bid is accepted, the GNO will then enter the auction contract and the user will receive the fees specified. When the user’s GNO enters the auction contract, the fee reduction mechanism will be triggered causing a reduction in fees on Gnosis proportional to the total amount of GNO held in this auction contract. The auction contract is one-way and GNO cannot leave this wallet.

https://preview.redd.it/pi8hphw9n7a51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f083a291992e83b486630f5a848e09ca977569e
Examples of GNO and OWL Utility
Let’s take a look at several example uses for OWL:
  1. Alice is a Gnosis user who also holds GNO tokens. She locks down a portion of her Gnosis tokens for a year period. Every day she receives some OWL tokens. She uses these OWL tokens to pay her trading fees.
  2. BobBets seeks to build a sports betting application on Gnosis. BobBets purchases Gnosis tokens during the token launch. BobBets locks these tokens to create OWL. When BobBets creates markets, they also deposit a portion of OWL to the market to subsidize fees for their users.
  3. Claire likes to ask interesting questions. Markets on Gnosis must be provided with an initial subsidy to create shares. Claire funds these markets using OWL, and the platform matches (to a certain level) her OWL! Claire gets better answers to her questions because there is larger incentive for participants to provide insights.
Conclusion
We believe our dual token and Core/Services model is optimal to encourage adoption of the Gnosis platform. Adoption should be everyone’s number one goal toward the success of Gnosis as it both increases liquidity (leading to better odds, and encouraging a feedback loop leading to more reliable predictions) and awareness. By having the Gnosis Core layer fee free and with a pay once model by purchasing GNO for the Gnosis Services and Application layers, we can remain incentive compatible for all participants in the system.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION GNO tokens are functional utility tokens within the Gnosis platform. GNO tokens are not securities. GNO tokens are non-refundable. GNO tokens are not for speculative investment. No promises of future performance or value are or will be made with respect to GNO, including no promise of inherent value, no promise of continuing payments, and no guarantee that GNO will hold any particular value. GNO tokens are not participation in the Company and GNO tokens hold no rights in said company. GNO tokens are sold as a functional good and all proceeds received by Company may be spent freely by Company absent any conditions. GNO tokens are intended for experts in dealing with cryptographic tokens and blockchain-based software systems.
submitted by ensluck to Owltoken [link] [comments]

A value bet is a bet where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmakers odds reflect. Simply put, when value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds.This means you will have an edge over the bookmaker in the long run. Understanding value betting and finding value bets is the key to long term betting success. To an experienced bettor, it might seem like common sense but for someone new to betting, making the shift from sports fan to serious bettor with an understanding of betting value can be a difficult task. Value isn’t entirely quantifiable in sports betting, as it’s ultimately a matter of opinion. We’ll explain more about this shortly. It’s also important to note that the use of the term “in the long run,” as good value wagers don’t ALWAYS win. The whole point of value betting is improving your long-term chances of success. To calculate the expected value for sports betting, you can fill in the above formula with decimals odds with a few calculations: Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw) Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake. Betting units are the best way to keep track of your wins and losses when betting on sports. There is some value in simply tracking which bets you’ve won and lost each season, but this overall win-loss ratio is only one part of the story. Because odds differ between events, not all wins and losses affect your bankroll equally.

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