Video Game Stocks to Buy and Watch (Q1 / March 2020)

PCG, a second shot at riding 11->18+ on bankruptcy exit

PCG, a second shot at riding 11->18+ on bankruptcy exit
EDIT: JUDGE JUST RULED, DISMISSING ABRAMS MOTION, WE GOING TO THE MOON BOIIIISS, NO DELAYS ON EXIT!
Hey all, here to share the last chance you have at getting PCG cheap before all the catalysts the next two weeks make it run like Usain Bolt to the mid-high teens
This past week there’s been a few good posts on PCG—thanks u/veritasinvestments and u/hjkoivu. Credit to mgr4 and others who helped contribute to this DD through discussion and research
I’m sure most of you degenerates are too lazy to read them, much less figure out what’s going on, so feel free to skip to the tl;dr. But for those of you who care, here’s my take on things. I wanted to post because this is a rare good opportunity on WSB, and also because it needs to be explained more simply, with greater examination of the details, so that my fellow gamblers can understand.
I told people to buy PCG back in December almost six months ago https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/e7h72m/pcg_growing_more_and_more_likely_to_exit/ when it was under 10$ and looked like a potential bankruptcy exit was possible. It ran to 18$ by February on the idea that PCG would exit bankruptcy and made mucho tendies. If you played this and made money, great, if not don't fret, you got another shot rabbit, don't choke this time
Just this morning Barclays upgraded to overweight, earlier UBS upgraded to 15$ PT based on exiting bankruptcy likely
Today we got a once in a lifetime do-over thanks to COVID where we are at the final precipice of bankruptcy exit, its priced at 11$ (and rising with upgrades each week), the final votes are the next two weeks and things are all looking positive.
TL;DR PCG going towards 20$ by end of June, Shares = free $$, 5/29 calls near 14.50/15 are high risk targets, 6/19 calls towards 15$ are less risky and mucho money, september 20C are free money, buy, sell on run up next 6 weeks and IV spikes
PCG - A Load of Hot Shit
PCG is a CA power company that did a bunch of naughty things and some homes / people burnt up (CA is a tinderbox come summertime). This resulted in PCG having to account for huge insurance claims, which obviously sent them into bankruptcy. The share price understandably plummeted:
https://preview.redd.it/4vir721wnxy41.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0c47db89008359b791a0d1765969f4c52d4a433
Now, the more observant among you may also note rather large spikes in volume in Jan 2019 and December / Jan 2020, followed by the share price rising significantly. What caused these spikes, you may ask? Well, the chance that PCG could come out of bankruptcy in a manner that would be beneficial to the shareholders of PCG’s equity. However, both times the plan was delayed, resulting in lower confidence and the share price dropping.
Clearly, if these had been actual exits, PCG would have skyrocketed—we’re seeing the price hit $17-20+ on proposals and rumors alone. That’s because PCG is monopolistic in California, and would be an absolute beast given two things: 1. It could exit on semi-favorable terms and 2. It could ensure, in some way, that it wouldn’t get fucked over by a fire yet again through enforcement of measures to reduce risk (and a nice tidy 20B+ wildfire fund that the state provides to help utilities reduce the burden of paying for fire liabilities).
Simply look at the following screenshot of its income statement these last few years, and imagine what it would look like if “unusual items” (give you one guess as to what those are) were removed:

https://preview.redd.it/i2r4y3vxnxy41.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=d86e04b205546dcce59fcc720a0ab11bce57082d
Good news, degens! The bankruptcy exit plans are underway again, and they do the two major things mentioned above. PG&E is allowed to remain solvent and continue generating huge revenues ($4.3 billion + in Q12020 and even more in Covid times as people stay home). Second, assuming PG&E exits by June 30th—a provision designed to help speed the process along—they’ll have access to $20+ billion in protection from a CA fund for future wildfire liabilities. So why will the bankruptcy exit occur now, when it didn’t in the past? Well, as Sir John Templeton once said when noting the four most promising words in investing, “This time it’s different!”
A Phoenix from the Ashes
For detailed past context on this whole process, read this article, it's great https://www.ft.com/content/582dd6e7-2ea5-4520-ae4c-d50c00c3799e
Here’s a timeline of the bankruptcy exit process. The two key dates are today, the 21st, and the 27th, which are when the victims' votes and the CPUC approval vote will be in, respectively, and when judge will confirm bankruptcy exit plan assuming everything positive. I’ll explain these terms soon, but just know that if both of these pass, PCG will almost certainly exit, resulting in mucho (California term) tendies when judge confirms bankruptcy exit:
https://preview.redd.it/mz45y0uynxy41.png?width=257&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbd24b8306a61de087f8d2a2c87f7686fbc7edb8
What are the chances of these votes passing? I’ll address the CPUC vote first. The California Public Utilities Commission is basically in charge of regulating utilities like PCG and therefore of approving bankruptcy exit. They are influenced mainly by their commissioner and by the governor. Gov. Slickback (Newsom) has already approved of the current proposal, and will urge the CPUC to approve it. In fact, the previous Gov. was largely ousted in part because of how he handled the PG&E situation. The CPUC commissioner also approves, and CPUC members are doing everything they can to see that this passes, including waiving a $200 million fine against PG&E. They’ve essentially approved already. Basically, if the people vote yes, CPUC will vote yes too.
And the people of California have been voting overwhelmingly in favor of the plan—we’re talking around 97+% of the votes that have been cast are “yes” votes. The plan needs only 2/3rds of those who bother to vote to vote yes. Further, the votes mentioned below account for a huge portion of those who can possibly vote (~70k max claimants and far fewer than that will vote). If you aren’t grateful for me wading into 60 pages of legalese to find this, fuck you (and yes, I didn’t just trust the seeking alpha article).
https://preview.redd.it/cl9loyn0oxy41.png?width=470&format=png&auto=webp&s=8465086d456c2e93fa6ba22128a8892fa5a526b9
Additionally, in this video, a lawyer representing several thousand more claimants mentions that his clients' votes are overwhelmingly in favor of the plan.
There’s only one issue in all of this, and it’s not even a real problem. A man named William Abrams is essentially alleging that a small proportion of the votes are invalid for conflict-of-interest reasons; Abrams wants these votes to be thrown out or wants the lawyers involved to initiate a re-vote with more disclosures. The WSJ picked up on this, causing algos to drop the PCG share price earlier this week.
The motion can be read here and is, in my opinion, largely BS. This is true on a purely mathematical level. From what I understand, the total debt owned by wall street firms is around $20 million dollars out of a $100 million credit facility. This hardly seems a conflict of interest when the facility is fixed-rate, and the creditors to Mr. Watt’s law firm have no say over him. Further, Watts’ law firm may make up to $1 billion from settlement, which is not considered by the court to be an issue (after all, contingent settlement fees are what align clients and attorneys’ interests, allowing victims to get compensation in the first place)! The $20 million pales in comparison and is a red herring.
Abrams actually has an alternate motivation himself: to get PCG to admit liability for the Tubbs wildfire, which destroyed his home. This is blatantly obvious when you consider the letter he filed to the court in August of last year. Abrams has a totally understandable motivation, but his claims are not legally legitimate. Further, he’s positioning himself as an advocate for victims, whereas in reality he’ll be screwing over the only company which could provide them with remuneration, as well as causing payments to be delayed by years and years.
Take a look at the response which was filed to Mr. Abrams’ motion: short, no-BS, and compelling. It doesn’t seem like the big boys think he’s worth worrying about.
Also worth noting is that the Judge, Dennis Montali, really wants this thing to go through. He’s taken Abrams’ claim “under advisement,” which essentially is necessary for PR and optics, but is largely ceremonial. If he was keen on delaying the vote he’d have done it at the hearing on the 12th. Since then he's moved forward with confirmation protocol and vote staying same. Consider the advise, dismissed.
Lastly, Governor was supportive if the CEO steps down as well as the BoD is replaced
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-e-ceo-to-step-down-after-tumultuous-year-11587564703 is stepping down mid-June, his job was to navigate bankruptcy exit, he's done that, time for new CEO
BoD is being replaced except 3 people https://www.wsj.com/articles/pg-e-promises-board-shake-up-as-it-pursues-californias-approval-on-bankruptcy-exit-11580535837
So who else knows this?
I’ve done enough DD for you already. Go look at the involved players betting on an exit: Centerbridge, Elliot, Apollo, etc. Serengeti Asset Management is a bankruptcy focused hedge fund that often profits when firms exit bankruptcy, and they have nearly 10% of their portfolio in PG&E. More will pile in once the bankruptcy exit is confirmed, and still more when the company emerges from bankruptcy (many institutional investors have mandates to hold off until such things happen). There's over 80% tute ownership, billions in a company in Ch11 currently. What happens when they exit and have liability protection for future fires and can truck on to a proper PE valuation? Big money inflow is what
Further, dark pool data shows buying at every slight dip:
https://preview.redd.it/uvvz2062oxy41.png?width=1879&format=png&auto=webp&s=155826b7029b6a00e31046a96e8d36a9aa0c0f5e
For Dark pools, read this article https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp
Because of the aforementioned issues, PGC’s stock price has been depressed. While I’m not going to lie and say that I could accurately value it going forward, I will note that a ~3x NTM PEG is standard for utilities. If you want to compare metrics further, Edison International is the closest peer at 2.7x. In any case, the process of PCG’s depressed stock price recovering towards a more normal ratio should begin this month, and rapidly accelerate. I’ve seen longer term targets from $15 (UBS just raised their target to this, and they’re definitely still being conservative because of the hearing) to $25+. See below for a lazy comp set, and mess around with the numbers yourself:
https://preview.redd.it/dmsdj9t3oxy41.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=154ca45cd6aa48f03f8ae8d0e1b9398afd1c6540
There are two bear theories that are uncertain.
  1. Fires can happen in summer. If this happens PCG sells off just by fear of fires. My play involves selling before end of june on run up and then just wheeling PCG. Definitely not holding through entire Summer
  2. August 29th according to settlement plan is when PCG must deposit settlement money which is half cash and half issued as new equity. How much dilution will occur is uncertain as it must add up to 6.75B, but the idea is that this is undervalued and will normalize to 20s when exiting bankruptcy and be less dilution than expected. It'll get into a trust that sells shares in 18 months to return victims money.
Ultimately, the point is that smart money is betting on this play. Because we’re all single minded degenerates, that might be a turnoff, but it’s a vital piece of the puzzle.
There are other attractive things about PCG, too, particularly in this environment: it’ll actually be helped by more people staying home, it has no chance of falling in recession as utilities are safe havens (and this is massively undervalued), etc. But I’ve written enough. I’d encourage you to do your own research, and to look into all these interesting points.
TL;DR for you illiterate fucks.
PCG go up. Call good. PCG May 29th $15 Call (13-14.50 if you want to play it safer), June 19th 15$ Call, Sept 18th $20 Call. Enjoy IV kicks along the way up until the ruling on the 27th.
Also literally first time in 2 years Barclays made it a Buy vs a Hold
https://preview.redd.it/6lnbmpjfvxy41.png?width=765&format=png&auto=webp&s=49cf278e2dcd7477a8a460cf45f5a1e7bf6bd179
My Positions http://opcalc.com/7Pz
I hope to exit some of it near term positions around 14$ next Friday else on IV spike near judge ruling, depends how catalysts make it run next week
https://preview.redd.it/m5bwoaw4oxy41.png?width=1603&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d65fcf5a11308b985a9761e62db24dd39f712b9
I also have around 90K in shares on PCG
submitted by cpgupta561 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DDDD - Cycles and Human History

DDDD - Cycles and Human History
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they've cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering, I'll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I've been talked about for weeks now. I've previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance. This time, lets look at it from a perspective of human and American history, and cycles that can be in them.
EDIT - This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content. Without that context, this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy. This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts, as well as connecting them to actions and thesises of well-known investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett, who are saying very similar things. Don't bother reading this if you haven't read the first two parts of this trilogy.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, let’s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history, and connect that to the economy and the stock market. Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory, Ray Dalio’s thesis about our place in the long-term debt cycle, and Warren Buffet’s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
The Fourth Turning
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory, or the “fourth turning” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “saeculum”, or human lifespan - approximately 80 years. This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory, allowing similar events to happen again. I’m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically, and can be applied to human histories across civilizations, although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other. The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “turnings”:
High - A “golden age” of a civilization. This is when there is strong unity within members of the society, with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations, and weak individualism. As a collective mind, the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals.
Awakening - People get tired of conformity, trust in institutions weaken, and there’s a strong desire for self awareness, spirituality, or authenticity. This is a time of experimentation, activism, and rebellion.
Unraveling - Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest, and individualism is at its strongest. Society fragments to polarizing groups, and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the smallest goals.
Crisis - This is when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself. Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt, high unemployment, deflation or hyperinflation, or civil unrest. The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society, and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis. Civil authority and governments become trusted again, and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest.
Let’s look at how this cycle played out over the past few centuries in the US.

1701-1723 High The establishment of the first British Empire. The thirteen British colonies in the Americas were all by now well established and beginning to prosper. The Glorious Revolution in Great Britain has just ended, and the result is the supremacy of the people, through Parliament, over the Crown, and a new set of rights that apply to all Englishmen.
1724-1741 Awakening The First Great Awakening, or the Evangelical Revival. People become much more devoted to their religion and a desire to convert others, including native Americans and slaves.
1742-1766 Unravelling Seven Years War (French and Indian War in the US). It was considered to be the world’s first major conflict, with initial rivalry between the European great powers spilling over to other continents. From an American perspective, this would seem as an unnecessary war caused by a rivalry between two powers far far away, causing unnecessary hardship to the settlers in America. After the war, Britain wanted to recoup some of their losses from all the money spent fighting in North America, and created new taxes, leading to the Boston Tea Party. As a result, Britain then imposed the “Intolerable Acts” to punish the colony of Massachusetts. Throughout this time, trust in the Crown within the colonies started to disappear.
1767-1791 Crisis The American Revolution - All trust and allegiance to the Crown is destroyed and replaced with new ideals.
1792-1821 High After Victory in the American Revolution, there’s a new sense of unity and pride in the newly founded nation. New institutions were created for the new country, and there was a sense of optimism, even during the War of 1812. The period after that war, and leading up to the 1824 election, was called the Era of Good Feelings, to reflect the sense of national unity and purpose within the US
1822-1842 Awakening The Second Great Awakening, similar to the first one.
1844-1860 Unraveling Sectionalism within the US - this period saw the rise in the North vs. South divide over slave states and non-slave states, and tensions revolving around it
1860-1865 Crisis American Civil War
1865-1886 High Gilded Age - Rapid economic growth in the United States through industrialization. Creation of new institutions in the form of industrial titans like Standard Oil.
1886-1908 Awakening The Third Great Awakening, similar to the first two. Also, the progressive era, which saw an activist movement to address some of problems that come with monopolies like Standard Oil, urbanization, and corruption.
1908-1929 Unravelling This period saw WWI, Prohibition, and the Roaring Twenties. During this time, there was an increasing social conflict between liberal urban and conservative rural areas, specifically about morals and what should and shouldn’t be legal (eg. Scopes trial), the rise of the KKK, and is a hallmark of consumerism, individualism, and greed.
1929-1946 Crisis The Great Depression and WWII. The New Deal destroyed many existing institutions, and replaced them with new ones. The aftermath of WWII created new global institutions, in the form of the UN, and started the American world order.
1946-1964 High The Golden Age of Capitalism / post-war economic boom
1964-1984 Awakening During this time, we saw two different types of awakening. The counterculture movement of the 1960s saw activism against the Vietnam war and the Civil Rights movement, as well as an increase in spirituality and self-awareness, which is typically associated with the youth during this period (i.e. “hippies”). During the same time, there was another religious revival - The Fourth Great Awakening.
1984-2008 Unravelling This period saw an increase of the polarization on cultural issues in America, specifically with abortion, gun control, drugs, and gay rights, between conservatives and liberals, starting with the election of Ronald Reagan. The polarization was also very heavily influenced by geography, with liberals tending to live on the coasts and big cities, and conservatives everywhere else. The polarization made it increasingly difficult for congress to enact any big changes.
2008 to somewhere between 2020 and 2030 Crisis This period started with the financial crisis, as well as the aftermath of 9/11 and the War on Terror. Add on the pandemic, and the fallout from it, and we’d likely see another mass destruction of old institutions and creation of new ones.
2020-2030 to 2040-2050 High ???
2040-2050 to 2070-2080 Awakening A Fifth Great Awakening?

The Changing Hands of World Powers
There’s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that’s interesting and probably applicable here - the Long Cycle Theory. It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation, is challenged every 70 to 100 years - the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life, leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result.
Cycles in World Leadership
The United States has survived as the World Leader for the 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order. This time, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order.
Long Term Economic Cycles
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis - about long term debt cycles, and the fact that we’re near the end of one. The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles. Short term debt cycles are the regular occurring business cycles you usually see once every decade, usually caused by overspending. The long term debt cycle, however, is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged, and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy. A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0%, and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; the last time the economy’s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression - this is called a liquidity trap. The period following this liquidity trap was an economic deleveraging, typically associated with civil unrest, revolutions, wars, and asset prices plummeting. The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet.
Another long term economic cycle theory that’s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave, although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists. The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles, lasting between 45 to 60 years, of periods of rapid economic and stock market growth fueled by technological innovations, followed by a period of stagnation.
Kondratiev Waves
Currently, we’re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology, which started in the late 1970s. I’ve previously talked about this, but basically we’re near the end of this cycle as well.
So, it sounds like we’re near the end of many cycles; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory, the long term debt cycle, the Kondratiev Wave cycle, and possibly the beginning of the end of the Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence. In all of these cycles, the conclusion is clear - chaos, economic hardship, geopolitical tensions and crises. Let’s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended - the 1930s.
Retail Investors in the 1920s
There’s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market; only qualitative and anecdotal data. However, one thing is clear - retail investors pumped the market in 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted, despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat, and soon, the Dust Bowl. Why were they pumping stocks so much? Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up. I’ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump.
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding, the 1920s, and it remains instructive today. The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion. Stocks on the installment plan, stocks via investment clubs, stocks bought with capital rather than income, stocks on margin. It was a big new fad. Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history.
The permanent denuding of the dollar, the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s, forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in the old way, in money that held its value. The choice was made to capture, via stocks, the forthcoming profits of businesses. Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future.
Until the peak in 1929, stock prices went up by nearly 10 times. In the 1920s, investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments.
People were not buying stocks on fundamentals; they were buying in anticipation of rising share prices. Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets, convinced that it was easy money. In mid-1929, the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries, creating an oversupply. Essentially, companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism.
This all sounds pretty familiar to what's going on in the stock market today; as I previously mentioned, retail investors are pouring money in at unprecedented levels. Why is this happening now, about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in? It's the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I've mentioned above - the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now. With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory, humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes, ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who are no longer with us, and repeat the cycle.
There's one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5. Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it, and still below the 1929 highs. For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting, he spent a few hours talking about a similar story - one of the highs and lows of American history, with a bullish perspective. He wouldn't have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn't relevant. This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash, and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities - first his airlines and now banks. Although he believes that we'll eventually recover (i.e. "Never bet against American", in the long run), it's clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn't want to bet for America in the short term.
EDIT - Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar. I actually didn't even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published, but looks like we both came to the same conclusion, and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio's article. Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it.
Weekly SPY Watch Updates
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above, but people apparently care about trades I'm making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week, so I'll have this section of this post dedicated to that and my updates.
I've since sold, with the exception of some VIX calls, all my short positions on SPY, and currently doing some individual plays - currently holding GSX puts and short (sold) HTZ calls, among some other smaller plays. With respect to SPY, it looks like we'll be in a new channel - this time 293-300; not sure how long we'll be staying in this channel for, but I'll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying calls / puts when it reaches one end of the channel. While magic markers are telling me we're going to be bullish medium term, and go through 300 to new ATHs, meaning I should buy calls, I don't want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued.
5/25 3PM - /ES at 299, might open near the top of the channel. Will need to see how we open to decide if I'm going to enter a position on SPY again.
5/25 10PM - Looks we're going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday, with a trading range of 300-297. Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open.
5/26 Noon - Got a small amount of 5/29 ATM puts to play the channel. We opened right above the 200MA so I'm relying on this being a fake out, and not very confident about this specific play.
5/26 3:50PM - Looks like 300-302 range is acting like a resistance, heading back down in the 293-300 channel. Bearish intraday (5M, 15M) MACD => EOD dump and open lower in the channel tomorrow. Looking closely at what's going on with China.
- Wednesday (tomorrow): House votes on sanctions related to Chinese concentration camps of Uyghurs
- Thursday: China votes, and very likely passes, amendment to Basic Law in HK for "national security"
- End of Week: Trump promised that he will have a policy response, likely sanctions, for the change in HK's basic law, in addition to possibly revoking HK's special status
5/27 Market Open - Opened at the top of the resistance again, but quickly reversing. Might play out similar to yesterday
5/27 11AM - Going to wait till SPY hits 297 again and then roll my 5/29 puts I got yesterday to continue playing the channel down to 293
5/27 3:50PM - Turns out it was a EOD pump instead of dump. Oversold on 5M and 15M, so probably need to consolidate again tomorrow with a trading range of 297-302 again. Not so sure about this one because there's a solid chance this just breaks through that resistance and goes towards new ATHs. Entered into more 5/29 puts and going to hold overnight, sell if we still have positive momentum going in to open tomorrow. If we don't break 300 again tomorrow, I'm going to assume we're going to new ATHs and buy some IWM calls, hedged with QQQ puts.
5/27 6:30PM - My plan for tomorrow - see if we're actually in a 293-302 channel. There's going to be alot of uncertainty coming from China this week. If we're still above 302 by 10AM I'll probably transition towards bull positions. Most tech / strong companies are priced near their ATHs, and all the momentum coming into SPY is now coming from all the stocks that were really hit the past few months. Looking at CCL, JPM, and BA, all of whom are going towards a 1W MACD crossover
5/27 11PM - Still above this channel. Again, if we open above 302 and don't quickly reverse then clearly 300 wasn't that much of a resistance and we're headed to ATHs - next stop is 313, followed by 340. To my bears out there - the 1W MACD has already crossed over, meaning we're not going to see a rug pull any time soon, with the exception of some dramatic event happening in China. I'm not taking any medium-term bearish positions and currently just trying to play this channel, although the bullish momentum is stronger than I expected and not consolidating that much on 300 (yet). Watch out for August - that's when most medical experts agree a second lockdown is going to become evident and this bubble will pop; I still stand by my long term thesis. However, in the short term, don't trade against the trend and profit off the bubble.
5/28 9:40AM - I was wrong again. Going to sell those puts when SPY hits 302 at a small loss. We're headed to ATH
5/28 11:40AM - Overbought on 15M and 1H RSI, should see more consolidation today, and hopefully hit my 302 target to sell later today.
5/28 1PM - Stopped out of my small SPY puts, rolled that out into bullish positions on JPM, BA, and CCL. Will probably be doing SPY plays for a while, since all the technicals are pointing to a bullish rally, but only way for that to continue is for beaten down stocks like the ones mentioned, and found in IWM, to skyrocket the next few weeks. Also probably going to stop updating this thread as much.
5/28 5PM - 1H MACD is about to cross, and SPY got near 302 today, We've clearly broken the previous resistance area of 300-302, alot earlier than I was expecting; today was just a day for consolidation because RSI was overbought, now it has room to grow. MACD also acts as a resistance and typically will bounce back instead of cross if there's still bullish sentiment. I believe this is the case now, and we will also see SPY bounce up from the previous 300-302 region of resistance with it becoming support; the next level of resistance will be 313 on SPY, which is where we'll be headed soon. Haven't been holding any medium-term short positions, and am currently net long on financials and transports, which will very likely rally disproportionally if SPY continues to go up. Very well aware that this is a bubble, but I called the top wrong and trading against the trend will just lose you money.
5/28 7PM - Tomorrow will be an interesting day, Trump announced a news conference, with an unspecified time, where he will talk about actions he will do to China, potentially sanctions. There was a very small dip in the market on this news but nothing much else has happened yet. Depending on what the actions are, could be a red day tomorrow and break 302. I'll play this out intraday if we don't open low tomorrow
5/29 11AM - SPY is re-testing the 300-302 area, this time as support. Everything really depends on whatever Trump announces today regarding retaliation about China. Hard to say what can happen. If it's something extreme, like sanctions or tariffs, this could lead to another crash. Anything else would mean this SPY immediately bounces back from this support area.
5/29 1PM - Trump conference scheduled at 2PM. Will watch stock market reaction and trade with sentiment from it. If retaliation is bad enough to drop below 300, could be the rug pull all the bears have been waiting for.
5/29 2PM - Picked up some 302-300 debit spreads coming into the news conference, planning on holding this for an hour and selling by EOD
5/29 3PM - Sold puts during the speech and flipped to 304-310 calls. Looks like this wasn't enough to break through support. Going to hold these overnight, momentum looks to be turning bullish now that there's no longer any uncertainty about China, and actions are unlikely to provoke a Chinese retaliation.
5/29 4PM - Sold my short-dated calls. Coming into the weekend, it looks like next week will continue to be bullish, with 1D MACD convergence continuing, as well as the lack of any resistance until 313.
Week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 - Looking at SPY hitting 213 by end of week
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Hi I made a very free and very large guide on investing using YouTube video and book recommendations with beginner / intermediate / advanced skill level tiers that I believe will set anyone up for investing success in the long term. Check it out and please lmk what you think!

Investing guide
Preface: Why I made this
Let’s start this guide off with an honest truth: I spend an unhealthy amount of time on Youtube. Whether it’s watching Japanese sumo championships, video games I don’t even play, or Mike Tyson absolutely annihilating anyone unlucky enough to box him: I love it all. Thankfully, some of my time has been put to good use. Over the past several years I have learned nearly everything I know about investing, almost exclusively through the platform, and that has changed my life. I have been investing in ETFs for the past 5 years, picking individual stocks for 2, and as of today (June 10, 2020) my portfolio is up over 60% overall. Investing, to me, is the path to financial freedom. The key to spending my life the way I desire and never needing to worry about money or slaving away at a job I don’t enjoy.
I’ve been interested in investing since high school but I only just started recently because I had no clue where to begin, and entering the investing world intimidated the hell out of me. The education system provided me next to nothing in terms of personal finance, and anyone actually talking about it seemed like some sleaze bag that wanted to sell me something.
I made this guide for anyone feeling that exact same way: I decided to slog through all the books and the hundreds of investment videos I have watched over the years to make a structured list of videos and personal notes that will give anyone, completely for free, the tools they need to begin investing and to succeed in creating wealth over the long term.
Disclaimer:
Getting through this guide will not be easy. At times it will suck, it will be boring, and it will be wildly time consuming. I have included many hours of videos and I expect you to watch each one. I want to be clear: If you cannot sit through a 45 minute video on how to learn to invest, then I would seriously reconsider investing at all. Patience is just as key in the markets as it is in learning new skills.
I encourage you to use this guide as an education tool, but not as the definitive answer for how to invest. It is undoubtedly prone to my personal bias and my style of investing, which may or may not not fit your own. Nothing in the investment world is gospel and it is imperative to develop your own strategies, to stay humble, and to continue educating yourself.
However, I do believe this guide should provide you with everything you need to begin investing and to be successful in the long term. Most, but not all, of the links provided reflect my own personal investment style, but occasionally I will present several different ideas and allow you to decide what is best for your own portfolio. Almost all of the linked videos are by amazing Youtubers that have tons of additional content, each of them with their own strategies, opinions, and expertise. Check them out.
If you decide you are ready to begin investing I have included my three brokerage recommendations at the bottom of the guide. Good luck!
Why should you invest?
Why Investing is the Best Way to Get Rich | Phil Town -
Essential video
Fresh Prince - If we so rich.... -
Uncle Phil explaining the worry free life investing can provide
Beginner
William Ackman: Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Under an Hour | Big Think -
This is a great overview of investing and finance taught by Bill Ackman, who recently made the most successful trade of all time: turning 27 million into 2.6 billion dollars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRY9gEuoWLA&list=WL -
Broad beginner level investing video - what stocks are, where to buy them, how the buying process works, what brokerages to use, and strategies for protecting your money. This video contains a ton of value for the beginner investor.
Warren Buffett's Best Advice on Successful Investing -
Invest in what you know
4 Most Important Rules for Investing | Phil Town -
Buy what you understand
10 Ways Beginners in the Stock Market get SCREWED -
10 ways beginners fail in the market, and how to avoid them
Traditional and Roth IRAs | Simple Steps for a Retirement Portfolio Course -
Traditional / Roth IRA explained
Investing Basics: Bonds -
Bonds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixmevXJYLbE&list=WL&index=7&t=0s -
Focus on buying great companies with great fundamentals, do not base your buying and selling on short term news - over the long term you will be successful
Investing Won't Make You Rich (Probably) -
Temper your expectations for what investing is going to bring you - If you enter the market expecting to get rich you will most likely fail - Slow and steady returns can change your life overtime, but losing massive positions on gambling / chasing overhyped stocks can destroy your potential for compounding returns
Buffett's $1 Million Bet: Index Funds vs. Hedge Funds -
Hedge funds consistently underperform Index funds. Do not pay huge fees to “professional investors” that cannot even beat the market.
How To Become A Millionaire: Index Fund Investing For Beginners -
Index funds / ETF’s = easy diversification - consistent returns - little to no work involved
WARNING: The Index Fund Bubble -
A bubble may exist in Index funds / ETFs
This Is How Much My Wealthfront Returns Are After 4 Years -
At the bottom of this guide in How / Where to invest I have included my opinion on Wealthfront and using a robo advisors for building portfolios with little to no effort
Intermediate (How to pick individual stocks)
How to Read an Income Statement! - (with Amazon Example) -
How to read an income statement
Balance Sheet Explained for Beginners in 2019 - (Free Stock Market Education) -
How to read a balance sheet
How to Read a Cash Flow Statement - With Free Cash flow Formula -
How to read a cash flow statement
How to Value Stocks QUICKLY -
How to quickly value a stock using metrics from yahoo finance
Create Your Own Stock Tracker: Beginner Google Sheets Tutorial -
How to create your own personal stock tracker using google sheets or Excel. I use this to calculate my monthly dividend income and to create charts to visualize the overall percentage of income each stock position provides.
Why did GNUS Stock Crash? Time to Sell Genius? -
Example of a stock going up purely on speculation and not fundamentals. The market tends to do the opposite of what people believe - if everyone has the same information you do then just because you expect this to happen does not mean that it will. Do not follow the herd.
Should You Still Buy Stocks or Wait For The Next Recession/Crash? -
Recessionary signals to be wary of - but also realize there are always market bears - no one knows for sure what the market will do - We cannot time the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-1GNzLUxWQ&list=PLZWbVSavQFXSU1EXjDM35DBZZ1lpF3ePe&index=77&t=0s -
Financial bubbles explained
Stock Multiples: How to Tell When a Stock is Cheap/Expensive -
P.E. / forward P.E. / value traps / limitations of using just one multiple to purchase a stock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbc3QLZiRSE&list=WL&index=13 -
Dividend growth stock investing and compound interest explained in great detail
How To Invest $10,000 Dollars For RIDICULOUS Dividend Income -
How to invest 10,000 into a dividend stock portfolio with varying levels of risk / passive income
Crash Course Economics -
This is an entire 35 video series - not required - but great material to understand
Places to do research
https://finance.yahoo.com -
Yahoo finance - great, free, resource for looking up specific stock information including balance sheet / income statement / cash flow / etc.
https://www.fastgraphs.com -
Fast Graphs - Paid graphing browser program that I personally use. Gives a great visualization of a companies price history in direct relation to their earnings. Great to use for profitable and growing businesses, because over the long term a stocks price tends to directly reflect the stocks earning potential.
Free trial for 2 weeks.
https://www.investopedia.com -
Investopedia stock market simulator - Invest in the real stock market, but with fake money in order to test strategies and simulate investing without actual risk. This is where I began investing, and also where I turned the initial 100k the simulator starts you with into 600k, which gives me a constant reason to cry.
Investopedia also has great, free, courses for investors and detailed explanations of market metrics that you may not understand —
for example: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp - their explanation of P.E. ratio, which is an imperative concept to understand.
I Will Teach You to be Rich --(An amazing book for everything personal finance related, highly recommended)--
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America
Invest like Warren Buffett: Powerful Strategies for Building Wealth
University of Berkshire Hathaway
A Random Walk Down Wall Street
The Intelligent Investor
Rich Dad, Poor Dad
The Millionaire Next Door
Factfulness - Hans Rosleing —— Nearly everywhere the world is seeing dramatic economic improvements.
Siddhartha
Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
https://www.reddit.com/financialindependence/top/ -
Reddit fire link - FIRE is a community of people seeking to gain financial independence through spending wisely and building passive income streams in order to retire early and enjoy their youth
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/ -
—A good example of the exact type of site / community you need to avoid.—
Advanced
How Short Selling Works -
Short selling explained — I do not recommend this. Shorting stocks carries infinite risk with limited reward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M2sIpD9t4Q&list=WL&index=12 -
Why day trading does not work
Why 80% Of Day Traders Lose Money -
Great message here against day trading but also regarding the importance of always staying humble, even when you are successful in the market.
High Frequency Trading (Explained) -
Explains HFT — When you day trade you are competing against multi trillion dollar industries which are using the most advanced technology on Earth, that can trade millions of stocks in a fraction of a second. Plain and simple you will not win in the long term.
Stock Options Explained -
How to trade options
PE RATIO EXPLAINED - HOW TO USE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO FOR STOCK MARKET DECISIONS -
A more in depth look at P/E ratio that can be used to scrutinize whether or not a companies management team are reporting accurate numbers
Enron - The Biggest Fraud in History -
Enron explained - Always be on the lookout for scams / bad management
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4b1D1vWRnc&list=WL&index=4&t=0s -
Practical example of the importance of good management with a focus on long term growth - not just short term profits
8 Steps to Research a Company to Invest in - Best Investment Series -
Advanced methods of researching stocks such as analyzing the 10k / management / earnings calls / etc
Understanding the Covid-19 economy / lessons learned from the crash
The COVID-19 Stock Market Rally - Why It Doesn't Mean We're Out of a Recession -
Covid 19 market rally does not indicate the recession is over
Is The Stock Market in FOMO Mode? Let’s Talk Serious... -
The danger of FOMO and entering a market disconnected from fundamentals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llslyXPu6wI&t=619s -
Quantitative easing and inflation explained / important to understand as the Fed pours trillions of dollars into the economy
How to Tell If a Stock/Company Can Weather a Downturn -
This video details how to get an in-depth look at a company's debts and obligations to determine their ability to weather an economic downturn. Covid has taught us that it is IMPERATIVE for a company to have cash on hand that can cover its short term debt obligations for a bare minimum of 1 quarter with no income. Some concepts in this video are pretty advanced, what I recommend is to —at least— know how much cash the company currently has on hand in comparison to their current debt. This can be done on yahoo finance by looking at the company's balance sheet.
If the company has significantly more debt than cash on hand then you need to figure out how much of that debt is short term (due within the next 12 months). If their cash on hand cannot cover that debt, then this company is an extremely risky investment. If this company is forced to shut down for any reason and cannot gain profitable revenue then in-order to avoid bankruptcy they will be required to take out more debt (which will be lent at extremely unfavorable rates) or to issue more shares to avoid bankruptcy. This issuance will dilute the share count and hurt current investors, also the issued shares will be sold at current market price which is likely to be a very low price for the company.
Bankruptcy totally wipes out the investor and your stock position will go to 0 as the company sells off its assets to pay off bond investors. If the company's assets value are above what they owe to bond holders then the remaining value will be distributed to shareholders.
The Cost of Share Dilution -
Share dilution explained
Should I invest now or wait?
A WARNING for ALL Investors -
Time in the market beats timing the market
The Best Investing Advice of 2020 -
Same concept - you cannot time the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cqqfltv_cSI&list=WL&index=40&t=0s -
Examination of the global economy using manufacturing numbers to consider the possibility of market recovery / another crash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g32q6e3KZ5c&t=320s -
Presents the idea that holding dividend paying stocks and companies that continue to grow is more powerful than holding a cash position
Waiting to Invest is Costing You... A Lot -
Waiting to invest is costing you a lot - due to inflation and opportunity cost // The all important power of compounding
How / Where to invest
I only invest with three platforms, so these are all that I can speak on
Robinhood -
Platform I personally prefer. The layout is simple and easy to understand. Perfect for beginners and long term trading / options trading and fractional shares also available. —— IF —— you decide to invest, please use my invitation link. We will BOTH receive a random free stock and I would really appreciate it.
- redacted for post rules -
T. D. Ameritrade -
A more professional broker than Robinhood with high level tools, graphs, apps, analysis, etc to use. However the layout is much more complicated and difficult to understand. It is pretty essential to use a professional platform like this if you are short-term trading as their price action is much more accurate than Robinhood.
Wealthfront -
This is a robo-advisor that builds a custom portfolio depending on your long term financial outlook and overall risk tolerance. The portfolio it builds is extremely diversified and managed by high level algorithms to insure your portfolio is properly balanced and not vulnerable to excess tax loss on realized gains. First 5000 managed for no fees. I love Wealthfront and the instant, diverse portfolio that they provide which requires 0 work or attention from you personally - my portfolio with them is around 4 years old and currently up 40%.
Using my link will give us both an additional 5000 dollars managed for no fees, and again, I would really appreciate it.
- redacted for post rules -
DISCLAIMER
All information and data within this guide are solely for informational purposes. I make no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability or validity of any information. I will not be liable for any errors, omissions, losses, injuries or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided AS IS with no warranties, and confers no rights. I will not be responsible for the accuracy of material that is linked on this site. Because the information herein is based on my personal opinion and experience, it should not be considered professional financial investment advice or tax advice. The ideas and strategies that I provide should never be used without first assessing your own personal/financial situation, or without consulting a financial and/or tax professional. My thoughts and opinions may also change from time to time as I acquire more knowledge. I am not an investment professional. These are, as discussed above, solely my thoughts and opinions.
submitted by lord_v0ldemort to investing [link] [comments]

Elites "Going Rogue" Suggests The Global Neoliberal Architecture Is Collapsing (UK) by Michael Every via Rabobank (article full quote, with added links, annotations, Sep.2.2019)

this article a hot news item Aug.28++
Rabobank | wkpd Michael Every
Listen carefully. (kerplop, rogue-fish heading for open water) That is the sound of going rogue – and bond yields further through the floor.
Yesterday UK PM Boris Johnson (BoJo) announced he is going to prorogue– or close– Parliament, meaning that when MPs come back to sit next this week they will only do so briefly, and will then not return until 14 October, when there will be a new Queen’s Speech to launch BoJo’s slate of legislation as the new PM. So far, so technical. Yet what this effectively means is that there will be a very narrow window next week, and then a slightly larger one in the final two weeks of October, for Parliament to act to prevent Hard Brexit on Halloween.
This is explosive and unprecedented stuff, politically. The British constitution is largely unwritten and so allows wiggle room, and the government insists they have checked the legality of all they are proposing; nonetheless, as the press and opposition note, it smells awful. This is clearly a case of Erskine May (the ‘parliamentary bible’ that looks and sounds like it belongs in a Harry Potter tale) turning into Erskine Maybe or Erskine Might.
Indeed, BoJo is being accused of a “coup”, a “constitutional outrage”, an “abomination”, and of being a “tinpot dictator”, though this being the UK, perhaps that should be “teapot”; but there is not just tea but a genuinely revolutionary atmosphere brewing. Bob Kerslake, former head of the civil service, is quoted in the Guardian as stating:
“We are reaching the point where the civil service must consider putting its stewardship of the country ahead of service to the government of the day.” Lord Kerslake said.
A Guardian op-ed (previous link) advocates the current head of the civil service (Lord Robert Kerslake) should follow the advice. Even the British royal family, already facing one scandal, risks getting sucked into this given some had expected the Queen might not accept the privy council’s advice to prorogue at all. (they were wrong, see below)
Of course, this all comes just after Bill Dudley publicly suggested the US Fed has a duty not to help ameliorate a Trump trade war via cutting rates and to instead hold fast to ensure he isn’t re-elected. As such, what we are seeing transcends Brexit, though I will return to it in a moment. Rather, this is the broad warning from my 2016 ‘Thin Ice’ report:
…the global neoliberal architecture collapsing, and perhaps taking some liberal-democratic architecture with it.
If you think that is hyperbole, consider this benchmark – how would we be reacting if the armed forces in any country were saying what Kerslake and Dudley just suggested? (go rogue)
This is not going to change for the better until we get a global new paradigm emerging – and that is a long way off. (Yes, Italy might cobble together a Europhile-PD/Europhobe-5 Star government, but how sustainable is that going to be, and will 5 Star’s party members support it? (not likely)
None of this is to take a stance on what any particular executive or legislature is doing on any particular policy front. Rather, it is an analytical view of how bitterly, deeply divided many countries are between a status quo ante, with its neat technocratic rules and regulations, and a populist backlash from those who feel these no longer provide a path to what they used to have and still want. One can argue “executive vs. legislature” or “executive vs. gate-keepers”; yet when the executive speaks of the “will of the people” as its justification it gets very Hannah Arendt very fast. Equally, however, what if the legislature and gate-keepers really are refusing to recognise the need for wrenching populist change, no matter how painful short term? One can argue it left and right and back and forth – but ultimately we will need to see a winner. And that is what markets need to focus on: not who is ‘right’, but who wins and what that means.
So back to the practicalities of Brexit. Parliament has only a few options: sit in another location and call themselves Parliament regardless of the prorogue – is that legitimate or also a dangerous precedent?; pass a law which would cancel the proroguing, which ironically would have to be signed by the Queen who just signed off on the prorogue; call for judicial review of the proroguing, which is on shaky ground according to government lawyers; pass a law to repeal Article 50, which would trigger an inverse political crisis as large as what BoJo is doing; or call a vote of no confidence in BoJo… at which point figures close to him have stated he will wait the allotted 14 days and then dissolve Parliament for new elections… AFTER the Brexit deadline of 31 October. In short, this is all likely to come to a neo-Cromwellian (classic rogue reprised) head next week (early Sep), and Hard Brexit odds are right up there with an election leading us back to the same Revoke vs Hard Brexit binary.
What was the market reaction to the UK heading into such deep, dark waters? GBP initially sold off and then recovered to hold around $1.22 (USD). Hardly an emerging market seeing meltdown; by contrast, look at what happened to the Argentinean Peso (ARS) yesterday (Aug.27), which is currently around 58 perUSD when it started the year at below 38. Likewise, Gilt (bond) yields declined 2bp (basis points) at the short end and 6bp at 10(year)s and 5bp at 30(year)s. That is hardly the reaction to a country about to implode and default. (Low yields mean high prices, ergo investor confidence in lasting value.) Then again, it is hardly a ringing endorsement of the economic outlook either… which, together with US 10(year)s (Treasury Bonds) at 1.46% (yield) and German 10(year)s at -0.72% explains why we are crashing through our self-made Thin Ice in the first place.
That and the fact that China continues to slow due to its vast self-made problems, according to the Bloomberg Economics gauge. On which final note, today’s CNY fixing was $7.0858, again slightly lower than the previous day, but again much stronger than where the fix was implied ($7.1085) and where the market currently is at $7.1652. That’s another piece of neoliberal convention going rogue – the PBOC is saying something, markets are saying otherwise,… and nothing is happening to them (PBOC) as a result. (emphases in original)
New World Order In Meltdown Aug.31 | 0hdg
update Sep.4 Boris Johnson defeated over Brexit strategy Sep.4.19 8 min | StraitsTimes
background videos on Brexit
Sean (SGTRpt) interviews Brit "Daddy Dragon" (Graham Moore), Brexit became law Mar.29, and J Assange will be safe in Britain 25 min
Brexit: Government may ignore legislation to stop No-deal says Gove 14.3 min
As MPs opposed to a No Deal Brexit prepare to try and thwart it in Parliament, the government has launched a £100 million advertising campaign, urging people to "Get Ready for Brexit".
submitted by acloudrift to todayplusplus [link] [comments]

A final response to the "Tell me why Trump is a terrible businessman"

Trump shows he doesn’t know how the economy works by thinking he can fix the debt by just printing more money.

Trump wants to go back to the Gold standard despite warning from economists.

Trump proposes tanking the economy so he could renegotiate the public debt and pay discounted prices to investors of US Treasury bonds.

Trump proposes plan that would shrink the economy by 2% according to experts.

Trumps Trade War with China would increase the price of everyday goods and products up to 40% or more.

Trumps current spending plan would bankrupt the country.

Trumps Tax cuts would add $24.5 trillion to the national debt

Trump wants a $3.2 trillion tax cut for millionaires.

Trump thinks unemployment is really 40% despite the fact that would put the unemployment rate at twice the height it was during the great depression.

Trump lowers his number and thinks unemployment is 20% which is still wrong.

Trump win would tank stock market according to billionaire financial guru.

Trump ranked on the same level as ISIS in terms of causing global economy instability by Economist Intelligence Analysts.

Trumps claim about trade deficit is $200 billion dollars off.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Trump promises to decrease taxes without increasing the national deficit despite the fact that is literally impossible.

Far Right Conservative Think Tanks and Republican professors acknowledge Trumps plan would not only create an economic collapse but a breakdown of basic everyday life.

Trump declares bankruptcy… Four, Six separate times.

Trump $3 billion dollars in debt in 1991.

Trumps Entertainment Resorts are forced to declare bankruptcy. Trump lies and claims “I have nothing to do with the company,”

Trumps Casinos were failures.

Trump refuses to pay back wages to his wife's personal assistant unless he signed a non-disclosure agreement.

Trump accused of illegally withholding checks from employees.

Trump hires illegal workers and pays them below minimum wage.

Trump accused of engaging in incidents of physical assault, verbal abuse, intimidation, and threats of physical harm towards workers to suppress unions.

British Human Rights Journalist says conditions for workers at Trumps Dubai Golf course are “The worst I have ever seen”

Trump tries to start his own Mortgage company right before the housing bubble crash and fails.

Trump tries to start his own airline and in three years never turns a profit.

Trump tries to make his own monopoly ripoff, twice. Predicted 2 million units sold. It gets no where near that and fails.

Trump tries to make his own Vodka line. He promises it will beat Grey Goose and it fails.

Trump tries to make his own steak line. It’s discontinued due to poor sales and he fails.

Trump tries to start his own magazine, it fails.

Trump tries to start his own travel site, it fails.

Trump tries to make a Tour De France rival called Tour de Trump that fails.

Trump tries to make his own football league it fails, he loses $30 million dollars. Then he tries to sue the NFL for $1.7 billion.

Trump starts his own line of vitamins, consumer watchdog groups and health experts label it as a scam. It also fails.

Trump somehow thinks ISIS has become competition against him in the real estate industry after falsely believing they started building their own Hotels.

Hundreds claim Trump refused to pay bills.

When asked about his companies regularly violating the Fair Labor Standards Act Trump says, “That’s the way it should be.”

Trump defrauds students through scam university.

Trump makes racist comments about Judge in the class action lawsuit involving said scam university.

Trump takes a $40 million dollar loan from Deutsche Bank and when they ask him to repay the loan he refuses and sues them for $3 billion dollars.

Trumps daughter recalls story during her childhood when Trump pointed at a homeless man saying he was 4 billion dollars richer than him because, “that’s how much debt I’m in.”

Trump Bribes corrupt government officials to seize elderly woman’s house using eminent domain to get more Limo Parking Space.

Trump tried to use eminent domain to steal the house of a Holocaust survivor.

Trump uses slumlord tactics of hiring thugs to physically intimidate tenants.

Trump retaliates against tenant for filing complaint by drilling holes in her ceiling and filling her apartment with construction dust. (Tenant later dies of lung cancer.)

Trump picked stock fraud felon as senior adviser.

Trump brand used to swindles buyers out of life savings through fraud in failed Condo project.

Trump named in over 3,500 lawsuits.

Trump uses bribery and secret financing to circumvent state law and stop competitors.

Trump is fined 200,000$ in 1992 by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement for not allowing blacks or women onto his casino floor while racist Mafia leader is gambling.

Trump tries to violate Antitrust regulations through purgery and identity theft to steal two separate companies.

Court case implicated Trump in fraud, money-laundering, conspiracy, perjury and the theft of trade secrets.

Trump violates federal gambling laws.

Trump outright commits tax evasion.

Trump commits felony and lies to the Securities and Exchange Commission about company earnings with the hope of cheating taxes.

Trump steals over $300,000 from worker pensions.

Trump hires Illegal Immigrants over U.S citizens.

Trump hires Illegal Immigrants again but this time defrauds them of pay.

Trumps makes majority of products in China.

Not even Trumps Make America Great Again Hats are made in America.

Trump violates immigration laws by sneaking Illegal Immigrants into the U.S for modeling jobs then refuses to pay them.

Trump hires a financial analyst to gauge his Taj Mahal Casino project, the analyst says that the project would fail by the end of that year. Trump sues the analyst demanding he says it will succeed. By the end of the year the Casino declares bankruptcy.

Trump sues small travel agency founded in 1985 for coincidentally sharing his name.

Trump sues small Georgia business for making “Trump Cards” in 1988 despite the fact they weren’t even referencing his name.

Trump sues a small Indian restaurant for sharing the name of one of his Casinos. That restaurants name? “The Taj Mahal”

Trump sues union when they reveal that Trump doesn’t even stay in his own hotels.

Trump tries to sell the Empire State Building despite not owning it. He then sues the real owner in retaliation.

Author Timothy O’Brien calls Trump a millionaire instead of a billionaire. Trump responds by suing him for $5 billion dollars. O’Brien gets to court and is able to prove Trump had been lying about his net worth and was in reality worth between $150 and $250 million.

Comedian, Bill Maher responds to Trumps demands for Obama to release his birth certificate to prove he was born in America saying Trump should release his to prove his mother had not mated with an orangutan. Trump responds by suing Bill Maher for 5 million dollars.

Later when asked if Trump knew Maher was joking and didn’t actually think Trump was the product of bestiality Trumps responds with “I don’t think he was joking. He said it with venom.”
(I just want everyone reading this to take a moment and wonder how people would react if Hillary tried to take away a comedians free speech and make them pay her millions over making a joke about her)

Trump sues employee for quitting.

Trump threatens to sue artist after his supporters find where she lives, stalks and attacks her because she made a painting of him with a small penis.

News outlet threatened with lawsuit over writing story about Trumps hair plugs.

submitted by marisam7 to EnoughTrumpSpam [link] [comments]

SchiffGold, GoldMoney(BitGold), and Bitcoin - three horses will all win, but Peter Schiff still isn't there

I'm a fan of Peter Schiff and don't miss a video blog he does. I just watched one where he announces a merger of his company SchiffGold with GoldMoney, founded by James Turk in 2001. Interestingly, GoldMoney recently acquired BitGold, which was founded in 2014 and may have been confused with the Bit Gold proposal by Nick Szabo and also Bitcoin, of which it's neither. So there is some consolidation of very strong players here. Peter Schiff has long criticized Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is mentioned several times in this video entitled SchiffGold Joint Venture With GoldMoney.
Although Schiff is bearish on Bitcoin, it can't be denied all three communities - the GoldMoney group with James Turk, the Bitcoin community, and Schiff's physical gold bug crowd - all unanimously agree fiat paper currency is in need of an alternative, which should probably be rooted in something selected by the free market and which exhibits qualities of gold such as scarcity, and being free from government manipulation.
I don't think these communities are competitors, but instead are complementary. I like that Peter Schiff is willing to admit when he's wrong. He talks about being mistaken about BitGold's model, which he hadn't fully understood. I think Schiff will eventually admit being mistaken about Bitcoin too. I want to comment on how these communities approach the problem from differently, and address a big concern Schiff has for Bitcoin: that it's not backed by physical gold.
You see, Peter (I know he Google's his name to see people discussing him), the Bitcoin community has long discussed the wisdom of backing a digital currency with physical gold. We've concluded it's not the best idea. In fact, it's already been tried by e-gold which was indicted in 2007 and had assets seized by the government. The problem with using anything physical is counterparty risk. People can trust an entity to store their gold for them, but if they don't hold it themselves there is always counterparty risk. History has shown governments can be hostile to gold and people who hold it. The government may tolerate you for awhile, but the larger and more successful you grow the more of a threat you become.
That is a key strength of Bitcoin. No matter how large Bitcoin grows, governments can't stop it or raid anything, because there is no central entity to raid. There is no counterparty risk. If someone sends you a bitcoin and the network confirms it, you own it. Full stop. So it's precisely what you see as a weakness of Bitcoin, which is in fact a giant strength.
I do like the idea of GoldMoney digitizing the ownership of physical gold. I think there are real transaction benefits to that (which similarly make Bitcoin valuable). I think there are real benefits to holding physical gold and silver too. Again, I don't think different approaches to solving the problem of fiat paper necessitates a winner take all outcome. I think each approach has its own positives which are more or less useful to different people at different times. Another limitation of anything like GoldMoney is even while (or if) the government tolerates your company, you have to play by their rules. A cursory glance at GoldMoney.com's website shows they are registered as a regulated money services business. Before going past the first screen for opening an account I'm asked for a bunch of personal information, including name, birth date and phone number. My guess is the questionnaire doesn't end there. Any new user, anywhere in the world, can open a Bitcoin account in less than 1 minute with nothing more than an email address, and not even that if using a device app.
Holding money which acts as a good store of value isn't the only quality people desire financially; many also value privacy. There are many ways to use money for perfectly legitimate, legal transactions, which people might not want being recorded digitally somewhere or monitored as conforming to some whimsical political policies. It's simply not possible to play by the government's rules and thumb your nose at them at the same time. Using Bitcoin is again advantageous here because Bitcoin never asked government permission to operate in the first place.
In conclusion I want to reiterate we in the Bitcoin community don't and can't guarantee Bitcoin will be wildly successful in the future. We have challenges in the near term with scaling and governance. However, there is something mentioned in the video by Josh from GoldMoney I completely agree with, which is don't bet against engineers. I think the case for anything which utilizes gold (or emulates its most desirable properties) against a backdrop where fiat and the system erected on it is now showing clear signs of stress is strong. I think it's the case we have three strong horses running hard, and all will win to different degrees as things continue to unfold. We all have more in common than we do that separates us.
submitted by acoindr to btc [link] [comments]

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