Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)
Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. Idomybit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1.The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. *EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
Access Part I here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/ Welcome to Part II of this ongoing series. How many parts will there be? No idea. At least 4-5, I guess. I'd rather have this broken down into digestible chunks than just fire hose you with information. Part I was really just a primer. If I'm using the whole baking a cake analogy, then in Part I we covered what kind of cake we're baking. I will not cover in this post where we look for entries and exits, that's coming next. Part II is going to cover what ingredients we need and why we need those ingredients in greater detail. What Kind Of Strategy Is This Again?It's my 10 minutes per day, trading strategy. I think the beauty of this strategy is that it allows you to take a good number of trader per week without having to commit an inordinate amount of time to the screens. This is both a mean reversion and trend-continuation based strategy. It is dead simple to learn and apply. I'd expect a 10 year old to be able to make money with this. The List Of Ingredients & Why We Use These Particular Ingredients *I will have an image at the end of the post showing a textbook long and short setup* Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands (BB) have a base line (standard is the 20SMA, which is also what we will use for this strategy) and two other trend lines (known as the upper Bollinger band [UBB] and lower Bollinger band [LBB]) plotted 2 standard deviations away from the 20SMA. The idea behind BB is deviously simple - the vast majority of price action, approx. 90%, takes place in between the two bands. In other words, when price trades off the UBB or LBB, you could consider prices to be overbought/oversold. However, just because something is OVERbought does NOT mean its run is OVER. Therefore we need additional tools to make sure we are using the BB as effectively as possible. TLDR: BBhelp contextualize where to look for our technical setups using this strategy. Finding the candle/bar pattern is not enough. We need to make sure the setup is in the 'right' part of the chart. We accomplish that using the BB. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (Stochs) is a secondary momentum indicator. Because it is an oscillator that means the signals it generates are range-bound between 0 and 100. There are tons of momentum indicators out there. Theoretically you could swap out the Stochs for RSI or MACD. My hunch is that you won't see a measurable statistical difference in performance if you do. So why Stochs? Because I like the fact you have the %K and %D lines (you can think of them as moving averages) and the fact that the %K and %D lines crossover is a helpful visual aid. Like any other momentum indicator, the Stochs will generate overbought and oversold signals. We use the Stochs to help back up what the BB are telling us. If price is trading at, or even broken out of, the UBB and Stochs are also veeeery overbought that can be potentially useful information. It doesn't mean we have a trade necessarily, but it is a helpful piece of data. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tool: This tool is OPTIONAL. The only reason I use this tool for this strategy is to integrate a mechanistic means of entry and exit. In other words, we can use fibonacci levels to place limit orders for entry and profit taking, and a stop order to get us out for our pre-defined risk allocation to each particular trade. If you DON'T want to use the fibs, that is perfectly okay. It just means you will add a more discretionary layer to this strategy Candlestick/Bar Patterns: There isn't a whole lot to say here. We look for ONE formation over, and over, and over again. An indecision bar (small body, doesn't close on its highs or lows) followed by the setup bar which is an outside bar or an engulfing bar. It doesn't particularly matter if the setup bar is an engulfing bar or outside bar. What matters is that for a long trade the setup bar makes a HIGHER HIGH and has a HIGHER CLOSE relative to the indecision bar. The opposite for a short trade setup. The bar formation is what ultimately serves as the trigger for placing orders to take a trade. *MOVING ON* Now We Get Into The Setup Itself:There are 3 places where we look for trades using this strategy:
Short off the UBB (Here we want to see Stochastics overbought and crossing down. Bearish divergence is even better)
Long off the LBB (Here we want to see Stochastics oversold and crossing up. Bullish divergence is even better)
Long/Short off the Middle Bollinger Band (Here if you are looking for a short trade off the MBB you ideally want Stochs overbought. Vice versa for a long trade. NOTE: Often when taking trades off the MBB, Stochs WON'T go overbought/oversold. Because this doesn't happen often, I don't let it stop me from taking trades off the MBB.)
Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/ The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track. Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:
R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.
Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.
I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.
Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line: Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in. I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
So I’ve been “interested” in the markets (starting with crypto, moving on to stocks and now forex) for well over 2 years now. During that time I studied A LOT - chart patterns, candle stick patterns, various indicators, support and resistance, supply and demand zones, trendlines, fibs, divergences, basically anything I got my hands on. I really enjoy studying and learning new things so I was quite interested in everything trading and TA orientated and it all came quite easily. For about a year now I have been trying to trade forex. Spent some time on a demo (quite successfully), but then moving on to live account and all of a sudden as if things stopped working. Been trying to trade chart patterns and trendlines mainly, with not much success. Then discovered supply demand, something which resonated with me very well. Again, spent couple months studying that. Start trading it, lots of losing trades, few OK ones, couple huge ones (6 and 10R), basically offset all the losers from the past. And now dry spell again. Trying to stick with supply demand, but I keep noticing that there are more fakeouts (or so it seems) and nothing seems to be working again. Went back to backtest various strategies, trying to keep it super simple. Working on blending price action (chart patterns) and trendlines with supply demand trading strategy, but no luck. Even attempted divergences, all losers backtesting. It is now really demotivating. It appears as if the market is totally random and moves very unpredictably. Not sure if I just cannot see certain things, but nothing works for me. Just finished backtesting and am more confused than ever, don’g even know what I’m doing anymore. Last year I started with $2k in my account and finished with $2,080 - 4% annual gain... well at least I didn’t blow the account (I am super strict on risk management and thats the only thing i feel like i have figured out). Any advice? Really no idea what to do from here. Trying to keep it simple and focus on price action but it just doesnt make sense to me. I feel like I keep looking for a strategy or setup that works for me, but having really hard time identifying one. And the more I learn the more confused I get and the more contradicting signals I find on a chart. Help. Any suggestions, ideas, recommendations?
I have been dabbling with Forex for a few years now, and have started taking it more seriously over the past few months. I feel that I have come a long way and I would like to share my thoughts on what I have found. It would be interesting to see if anyone agrees or disagrees or has come to any similar conclusions. The first point on my list and perhaps the most important: Patience, patience, patience. This is heard everywhere but remains extremely important and also covers a few points. For example; Wait for a good entry! Think you have a 'sniper' entry at a trend line or on a support level? Wait! Think the market has started moving how you anticipated? Wait! Think the market has given you some confirmation for your trade? Probably still too early! Think you've missed your opportunity? Now you're getting closer to a good entry. This will be different for some people and different for varying strategies. For me, there is no point trying to catch a reversal right at the top or bottom. The chances of this are slim. It is so much more fruitful to capture the main bulk of a trend rather than trying to guess the tipping point. The meatiest part of a fish is the body, forget about the head and the tail. As well as waiting for a good entry, wait for a good trade set up. If there are no good trades, leave the screen and enjoy your day. I think one losing mentality is that money needs to be made now. On the contrary. Zero trades is a whole lot better than five bad ones. The second point on my list ties into the first somewhat: Stop closing trades early! Again, patience is key. It is so easy to see some profit and think that the price is about to go against you. Leave it and see what happens. Perhaps move your SL to break even if this works for you and if the market has retested another resistance etc. but most importantly leave your TP where it is. Hopefully there is a reason you put it there in the first place? Trust that. There is nothing more frustrating than closing a trade early and then watching the price continue in that direction afterwards. Some people like to have 2 or 3 TPs. This is fine but know this before hand and not as an excuse to take some early money. Part of the reason for this point is because I have found I would never seem to want to close losing trades early, so over time this bad habit would become a very expensive one. The third point I will make for now is my personal experience and might not be that universal: Widen your stop loss! I have been very guilty of trying to take a trade with a very optimistic SL and a larger than otherwise lot size, hoping that the price will only move in one direction. Unfortunately most of the time this is not how the market moves. If you have your SL at a reasonable and calculated level, then if the price hits it, there is a good reason for it and the trade was probably bad. It will be so frustrating for both your mental energy and your bankroll if your SL is hit and the price then moves in its original direction. Make sure there is enough wiggle room for this to happen. Let me know your thoughts, if this is popular I may follow up with a part two. Thanks, Happy trading!
Hi, I would like to hear some insight from actual profitable traders. I’ve been trading Forex on and off for a few years now and have learned a lot, but I have discovered that a lot of the advice from profitable traders is not true. Myth: Use a R:R of 2:1 or greater. Truth: 1:1 gives you a 50% chance (Really 48.5% with spread), 2:1 gives you a 33% chance, 3:1 give you a 25% chance, etc. Everything comes out to break even (minus spreads) if only R:R is taken into consideration. Myth: Use a stop loss because it limits risk. Truth: You are just as likely to blow up by 1 trade without a SL as “death by 1,000 cuts.” It just may take longer (or not). Myth: Take partial profits or use trailing stops. Truth: The moment you take a partial profit or loss, you are essentially taking a smaller trade with dynamic R:R. Which also will eventually always breakeven. Myth: Backtest your strategy. Truth: If you backtest far enough, you will see that at some point most strategies are not profitable, but are breakeven. It was just profitable from 2018-2020 for example, making up for the losses from 2016-2018. Myth: Adjust your strategy to be profitable. Truth: As we all know, if you curve fit to 2020, almost every year prior and following 2020 will be a loss. Myth: Trade with the trend. Truth: Markets are mostly ranging but by the time you do notice its trending or ranging, most of the time its too late to profit. Myth: Its not the strategy, Its YOU. Truth: All indicators are lagging and cannot soley be used for a profitable strategy. Also, breakouts, trend line bounces/breaks, buy/sell highs/lows alone are all breakeven no matter the R:R. It actually is 100% about the strategy and adaptability. Ask any algo, which is what makes up 80% of the market. Myth: Higher times frame setups are more trustworthy or more profitable. Truth: Everything repeats itself from the M1 to the D1. Up or down, consolidation, repeat. The reason they are more profitable is because you are taking less trades, which means less spreads to pay. Myth: Martingale is dangerous. Truth: Martingale or Reverse Martingale - AKA cost averaging (not a fan of >1.0 multipliers) is just as likely to blow up as any other strategy. So... What am I missing? How can I get on a path towards profitability? Here is my 2 cents but its still not enough to be profitable: 1) Since the market is mostly ranging, it seems a range strategy would be “best.” Though I think having a solid range strategy and trend strategy would be ideal. Though I cant find a truly profitable version of either without curve fitting. 2) Use ECN to save half a pip from the spread every trade. Will also slightly increase win rate with the closer spread. 3) Avoid negative interest rate swaps. 4) Avoid high impact news. Unfortunately my 2 cents is just enough to turn that 48.5% win rate on 1:1’s to an actual 50%. pLeAsE hALp. Much appreicated.
I've been using the Forex demo account to try and understand how to trade. I've been practicing in the demo account for 2 weeks with a strategy I now understand is called 'scalp trading' and got lucky with 2K in a 48 hour span which as I've seen while watching the Forex reddit forum, is still pretty low for most users. Without disclosing strategies that you would use, where would be a good example to break into the market? I've started to find where trend lines are after watching a couple people watch trends tracing back from 1 month, down to the 1 hour mark and then they trade long from there. I don't expect there to be a ton of activity with a brand new account but the adrenaline rush of trading and coming out even 10 cents ahead is amazing. The other thing I've been working to try and understand is reading a candlestick chart to see where I can pick up on a break to start a trade. Getting burned a couple times today hasn't made me want to quit, just learn what I did wrong so I can improve!
New trader seeking advice. I took the time to write down my strategy. Please be harsh.
I've been trading for about 3 months now, and really feel like I've found my calling. I want to trade full time as a career eventually when I've built up enough capital. I've done a lot of due diligence and self-educating, and have formed some semblance of a strategy. I've written down a list of rules that should never be broken, and that is the basis of my strategy. I would love some feedback and advice from professionals. I apologise in advance if I fail to use the proper terminology, or if I've posted in the wrong spot.
Watch any stock with RSI 30 or less which is below both SMA20 & SMA90.
Analyze the MACD to determine the momentum of a trend and the chance of reversal
Read the news to determine the stock isn't dead(filing for bankruptcy, about to be delisted, about to split, major scandal)
Take a position if the majority of analysts say to buy or hold.
Move into positions with an initial buy worth 0.5% of total portfolio value.
Aim for gains between 8-10% above avg price. Once a stock price reaches 5% increase start to Set & regularly maintain Stop Loss Sells to protect profits.
The maximum value of any position should not exceed 2% of your portfolios total value
First Double Down triggered @ 10% loss. Stop Loss Sell @ 7% increase. 100+90=190÷2=95(avg price). 7% increase from 90 is 96.3
Second Double Down triggered @ 20% loss from first Double Down. Stop Loss Sell @ 17% increase. 100+90+72+72=334÷4=83.5(avg price). 17% increase from 72 is 84.2.
Final sell at a loss should be executed after 5% loss from second Double Down.
Dont touch anything that trades at a volume of less than 3 million.
Try to avoid holding positions over the weekend. Even if you have to take a smaller gain or a shallow loss(1-3%) to get out before market hours on Friday, it is generally advantageous to do so. (This rule is likely due to my own anxieties. I'm happier when I have less money on the line during the weekend. A lot of news can drop in that 2 day span between trading days.)
I've tried to set up these rules such that one follows the other (I wont be wasting my time reading news about the stock if it's trading above 30 RSI). I am extremely conservative because I don't have a lot of capital and I desperately try to protect the small bit I do have(my initial investment was $500, and likely won't add more capital until after I've started working my regular job again). I trade almost exclusively stocks listed on the NYSE, NASDAQ, or S&P 500. Sometimes I trade crypto, but only with extremely good indicators, as the extreme volatility scares me a little. I stay the fuck away from options and futures. I'm interested in the technicals of Forex, and am open to trading put options after I've sufficiently grown my account. Please be as harsh as you can with your criticism without being unfair. There is no room for feelings in this game, I know that. I am trying to improve. Thanks in advance for any and all feed back.
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
Forex Trading Systems - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Why you need Forex trading systems and strategies. Learning how to trade profitably requires you to learn and master a few Forex trading systems. The key to trading is becoming a master of a few trading strategies not the jack of all. Forex trading systems are important as they will provide you with structure, a set of rules and a plan to follow. This article will discuss some of the different types of Forex trading strategies that are currently in the Forex market and teach you how to identify what makes the best FX trading system. Indicator Driven Trading Systems. Approach with extreme caution, indicator driven strategies are often designed by someone who notices that this set up is currently working right now. The problem is just that, it's working for that present moment and often very little analysis has been done to understand the longevity of this Forex trading system. The biggest issue with Indicator based Forex trading systems is that it uses indicators to generate a trading signal as opposed to pure price action. Indicators are lagging and therefore tend to give poorer and late signals than pure price action which is most up to date information on the chart. However, as this trading system often looks exciting and 'sexy' on the charts many amateur traders find this trading strategy far too tempting. Some guru's latest flash in the pan trading strategy. A trading system which comes with the guaranteed promise that you will 'never lose again and will turn your computer into an automated cash machine'; unfortunately the world is filled with these so called 'guru's' and their millionaire making Forex trading systems. Experienced traders know that losing trades is part of the game, you will always have losers and winner's you must be prepared to take loses. Professional traders understand no Forex trading strategy is ever guaranteed, however with trading results and back tested performance figures they focus on the overall picture of success. The best way to avoid falling victim to these scams when finding a Forex training company is to have proof of their strategies live trading results. This way you will understand the realistic and honest performance of their strategies. Trading systems that actually work... Harmonic trading patterns. Harmonic trading is the art of recognizing particular price patterns in line with Fibonacci extensions and retracements to calculate turning points in the financial markets. Confused yet? Harmonic trading is complex and requires a lot of time and practice to master, yet it could be one of the best trading systems because it offers high reward vs risk ratios and it is very versatile. It can be traded on any market on any timeframe. If you are just starting off learning how to trade the market your initial focus should not be on harmonic trading patterns as they will take a lot of time and focus to understand. However for more experienced traders looking for a new trading system to add under their belt, harmonic trading is worth a look. Old school technical analysis trading strategies. This particular trading system is well known and well traded throughout the Forex community for many years. Technical analysis includes; ascending triangles, consolidation breakouts plus head & shoulders patterns, flag patterns to name a few. The benefit in learning these trading systems is that they do work and they have decades of data to prove it. The downside to these systems is many newer traders find this approach to trading dull and perceive it as old fashioned. It lacks the glamor and excitement of indicator driven system. It's not busy and flashy and unfortunately, newbie traders often mistake complexity as a sign of better performance and higher probability. However the reason old school technical analysis is still around is because it works, and plenty of experienced profitable traders use it in their own trading style. Other than lacking the excitement, old school technical analysis trading systems tends to have a lower success rate, which a lot of people are unwilling or unable to deal with. A lower success rate does mean the winning trades are typically very large, which makes the system profitable and worth learning as it gives you a solid foundation in learning the Forex markets. Price action trading strategies. Now what you have been waiting for, I reveal the best Forex trading system you can learn is price action. Price action trading is the reading of the raw price action on a chart. The price is the most up to date information on the chart, so it will give you the most current situation when reading the chart. Price action as a Forex trading system is an incredibly simple method that is effective and functional as it works in both trending and ranging markets, with and against the trend. Learning price action can simplify your Forex trading and dramatically improve your results. With price action a trader has the advantage to trade any market on any timeframe, as price action setups are effective in all market conditions. Price action trading systems to learn: 1. Pin Bar Setup. The pin bar price action Forex trading strategy is a reversal system. It is designed to trade tops and bottoms of markets and can also be used in trend continuation by buying dips in upward trends, and selling peaks in downtrends. 2. Inside Bar Setup Inside bars can be used very effectively when trading Forex. They are primarily used when trading strong trending markets as a trend continuation strategy. 3. Engulfing Bar Setup Engulfing bars are great for trend reversals. They are rare, but a very strong price action reversal signal. Can be used when trading trends, but typically found at end of trend reversals. 4. Fakey Setup The fakey setup is a trend based trading approach that watches for a false breakout of an inside bar formation. This setup can usually be found at levels of support and resistance, very similar to the pin bar setup. Fakey's are used to buy dips in upward trend, and sell peaks in downtrend. Price Action Trading Systems... Your First Step. Do not get overwhelmed focus on a few price action trading strategies only. Trade these setups on a few different currency pairs. Grow your confidence. Become comfortable with identifying setups and really understand how to enter the trade step by step. Start with one price action Forex trading system and only when you are completely comfortable add another trading system.
App Name: TradingView - stock charts, Forex & Bitcoin ticker Description: Stock charts with real-time market quotes & trading ideas. Traders & Investors. Simple for beginners and effective for technical analysis experts, TradingView has all of the instruments for publication and the viewing of trading ideas. Real-time quotes and charts are available for wherever you are at whatever time. At TradingView, all data is obtained by professional providers who have direct and extensive access to stock quotes, futures, popular indices, Forex, Bitcoin and CFDs. You can effectively track stock market and major global indices such as the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 (SPX), NYSE, Dow Jones (DJI), DAX, FTSE 100, NIKKEI 225, etc. You can also learn more about exchange rates, oil prices, mutual funds, bonds, ETFs and other commodities. TradingView is the most active social network for traders and investors. Connect with millions of traders from around the world, learn from the experiences of other investors and discuss trading ideas. Advanced Charts TradingView has excellent charts that surpass even desktop trading platforms in quality — all for free. No compromises. All of the features, settings and tools of our charts will also be available in our app version. Over 10 types of charts for market analysis from different angles. Starting with an elementary chart line and ending with Renko and Kagi charts, which focus heavily on price fluctuations and barely take time into account as a factor. They can be very useful for determining long-term trends and can help you earn money. Choose from a large selection of price analysis tools, including, but not limited to, indicators, strategies, drawing objects (i.e. Gann, Elliot Wave, moving averages) and more. Individual watchlists and alerts You can track major global indices, stocks, currency pairs, bonds, futures, mutual funds, commodities and cryptocurrencies all in real-time. Alerts will help you not to miss the smallest of changes in the market and will allow you to react in time to invest or sell profitably, increasing your overall profit. Flexible settings help you to track the indices you need and also group them in a way that is convenient for you. Syncing your accounts All saved changes, notifications, charts, and technical analysis, which you began on the TradingView platform will be automatically accessible from your mobile device through the app. Real-time data from global exchanges Gain access to data in real-time on more than 100,000 instruments from over 50 exchanges from the United States, Russia, the East, and countries in Asia and Europe, such as: NYSE, LSE, TSE, SSE, HKEx, Euronext, TSX, SZSE, FWB, SIX, ASX, KRX, NASDAQ, JSE, Bolsa de Madrid, TWSE, BM&F/B3, MOEX and many others! Commodity prices In real-time, you can track prices for gold, silver, oil, natural gas, cotton, sugar, wheat, corn, and many other products. Global indices Track major indices of the world stock market in real-time: ■ North and South America: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NYSE, NASDAQ Composite, SmallCap 2000, NASDAQ 100, Merval, Bovespa, RUSSELL 2000, IPC, IPSA; ■ Europe: CAC 40, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35, ATX, BEL 20, DAX, BSE Sofia, PX, РТС, ММВБ (MOEX); ■ Asian-Pacific Ocean Regions: NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, NIFTY, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE, S&P/ASX 200, HANG SENG, KOSPI, KLCI, NZSE 50; ■ Africa: Kenya NSE 20, Semdex, Moroccan All Shares, South Africa 40; and ■ Middle East: EGX 30, Amman SE General, Kuwait Main, TA 25. Cryptocurrency Get the opportunity to compare prices from leading cryptocurrency exchanges, such as HitBTC, Binance, BitBay, Coinbase, Mercado Gemini, Kraken, Huobi, OkCoin, and many others. Get information on prices for: ■ Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP); ■ Ethereum ( ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), IOTA; ■ Dogecoin (DOGE), USD Coin (USDC), Tron (TRX); ■ Stellar (XLM), Tether (USDT), Cardano (ADA); ■ Monero (XMR), ZCash (ZEC), Dash. Playstore Link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tradingview.tradingviewapp Mod Features: Additional indicators available in pro version of this app
Feeling good lately. Wanted to share my personal checklist for what I do in leading up to a trade in case there might be someone who finds it helpful.
So, in short about me, Im in my mid 20s, and have been trading for about 5 years. The first 2 I did not take seriously at all, I was in college, working a lot and had a lot happening, long story short, I have given it my all the past 3 years and have done really well to the point Im starting to have close friends/family ask me to teach them or how to get started. Im not here to teach anyone or promote anything so please do not PM me asking for my strategy or for help on any of the things I mention. My only reply would be to use your friends google and youtube to do your own research into each checklist item, if I even responded at all. Anyways, today id like to just try to give back to this sub a little bit. I see a good bit of negativity on here and have even found myself bickering with users on here which has led me to pay a lot less attention to this sub altogether. One thing I recently noticed is that we are at 80k members in here! I think I subscribed just 2-3 or so years ago and it was around 15k. So that tells me that up to ~80% of this sub probably has less than 3 years experience. So obviously a ton of people are all here debating/arguing/attacking/trolling ideas/topics or users that are likely still in the learning phase so this sub I feel like can often discourage or delay a new persons chances of success because everything about forex is subjective, Technicals, Fundamentals, RM/Psychology, all of it is subjective and when users clash it often ends up toxic and someone that is new may completely give up just because they ran into some asshole on here. I believe what I share could benefit this community and if it happens to do so I may post more breadowns on different topics. For me personally, I enjoy daytrading. I've tried all types and find daytrading to be the best fit for me. I trade the London/NY crossover, for me that is 5-9:30am central time. Occasionally ill come in an hour early or stay an hour late. I trade 18 pairs, majors, crosses and gold, occasionally silver. No CHF and only few NZD. I know countless people who do just fine with CHF and NZD but from my results over time I do the least well with those. The RSI is mainly the only indicator I use, occasionally an EMA or Bollinger band. Also I have a sessions indicator I sometimes use that I had a friend make for me that outlines a box around my 5-9:30 time and range. My list of factors in being a successful trader, in order are
*Ill go ahead and state, directed to newbies, that strategy is important but is one of the lesser important factors in the sense of thinking long term, most new traders are out strictly searching for the golden strategy, which doesn't exist or it would be well known, even my best strategy is around 80% which I believe is awesome but without having 1-3 covered, any strategy is useless. This is my checklist, in order, although some are kind of closely related. I could go on and on about every point but ill try to keep it short and let you use your friends google and youtube to go further into any point you are more interested in understanding better. Before the trade/before I start trading this takes around 15 minutes for me to have all these in check, so I arrive at my desk around 4:30-4:45am to get all these in check
Psychology- your mental state is the most important factor. You need to be in a clear state of mind and not have anything heavy weighing on you.
News- Go ahead and be aware of upcoming news events, I use forexfactory.com and only takes me a minute or 2 to review the news and get a bias on what might happen or if any currency should be avoided due to high impact news.
Risk Management- Never take a trade risking over 1-2% of your account is kind of known standard for decent risk management. I would mostly agree but I'm personally super conservative and trade 0.25-1% per trade. Also I aim for trades with at least a 1:2 Risk:Reward, never ever less than a 1:1. When trading most days, I already kinda have the pip value and expected risk lot size in my head before im even at my desk, just because its fresh on my mind. I use https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-calculators/position-size to calculate my risks if i'm unsure.
*The more data you can gather about the pairs you trade the more you can use RM to your advantage, For instance, I backtest ALL THE TIME, constantly trying to learn as much as I can about my pairs such as: How many trade setups did each pair produce each week, month year? What pair produced the most setups? What pairs provided the most wins, losses or breakevens? What time during my session did the trade setup form? How many trades went for 20 pips, 40 pips or 100 pips? (for swing traders or scalpers you may want to adjust these numbers) Did news affect my trades? What happened in the Asian session? Early London session? Knowing this information allows me to organize my attention to the more profitable pairs for my strategy. I'm almost certain very very few people may have the same exact strategy I use but just as a tid bit out of my 18 the best ones for me in 2019, not necessarily in order, were GOLD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUAUD, EUCAD. These 7 have been my favorites and most reliable, so I will do 0.75-1% risk for these. Next preferred, in no particular order, are EUGBP, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUNZD, GBP/NZD, GOLD/EURO. For these 7 I use a 0.25-0.75% risk. The last 4 are EUUSD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUJPY, which I use a 0.25% on typically. This doesn't mean the pairs suck or anything, again this was based off my strategy, could be completely different for you but I hope you can see how this improves your odds vs just slapping a 2% trade across all pairs. If you do some research you'll find my best ones were also some of the most volatile and had higher ADRs.
Trend. Since I daytrade I don't pay as much attention to H4, D1, W1, M1 although I do establish a bias for these timeframes, and I typically don't check these everyday honestly, because Ill already know in my head where these are. So I check H1, M30, M15 for my daily bias, Trying to establish a good trendline on the H1, preferably a nice channel.
What did Asian/Early London sessions do? My trades typically form bettemore often/more reliable when the Asian session is mostly flat or around a 20-50 pip range, more or less depending on the pair and ADR.
So these are before, this section is about being aware of news and establishing bias'. Also note other than news, your bias' may or may not be correct, this is simply just getting an idea before we jump into ouyour session. It takes me a short while and it worth doing, especially the psychology part, I probably spend half of the time just on number 1, not to watch some motivation video or get super pumped but more so just getting relaxed, putting worries aside if there are any, getting rid of distractions, maybe some light/short meditation. 4:30-5am is definitely a quiet time so its relatively easy to do. I might have a cup of coffee but no more than 1-2 to not get jitters or too much hype in me. During my session/preparing for a trade. I wont go in to my specific strategy but I believe the checklist can work with many strategies.
Wait for overbought/oversold on RSI, over 75 or below 25. I don't trade in the middle of the range, simple rule we all know buy low, sell high. I set an alert for when the RSI hits either 75 or 25 so I can start to pay attention to it. I simply wait for an RSI alert then bring that pair to my attention. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ENTER AS SOON AS RSI IS TOUCHED, It just tells me I may potentially have a setup form on that pair soon. The alert allows me to trade 18 pairs relatively easily because there's no way I could sit there and constantly be flipping through charts for hour on end. I have been (what I feel like is) more aggressive in the recent years trading this many pairs. I have a reliable strategy that I could easily cut the the latter 4-11 pairs I mentioned out and just get paid off my best 7 which I probably will in the future as i've gotten more involved in other businesses and opportunities. For now and recently it hurts worse than a loss to know there was a clean trade setup that I missed just because I didn't have it up on MT4. A loss I can study and identify why I was wrong or what went wrong, a missed clean pattern just sucks lol
Pattern/Setup. There's a ton of candlestick/pattern formations that happen and people learn an example here where a user posts a lot of charts and examples of all kids of patterns. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4846473.0 So again for new traders, This can be incredibly overwhelming to attempt to learn everything and every pattern. I trade 4 patterns total, 2 when buying , 2 when selling. My advice is find a pattern or 2 and stick to them for a decent amount of time before switching or trying others, I know plenty of traders that stick to 2 patterns, 1 buy, 1 sell and are set. I've studied many but have found my favorite 4. You have to pick a pattern and pay attention to it over time gathering all the info you can to understand if that pattern works well. Every single pattern you can find online has happened on every single pair before, often times over and over and over. Find a pattern/setup, study how much it moves, if news affects the pair, how many times that patterns forms, how it acts around trendlines, etc.
Once I have identified a clean setup I begin to think risk/reward, SL/TP, entries/exits, having clear risk and targets in mind instead of jumping in and hoping it goes well. I pay attention to recent levels, Support/Resistances, Trendline touches and news to get an idea to where to place my SL/TP. I wouldn't recommend just using a flat amount for an example such as a 40 pip SL and a 80 pip TP across all pairs. A value of a pip changes across different pairs (An entire topic that should be learned but the calculator from myfxbook I stated takes care of the pip value for you.
I check other pairs that have the same currencies involved from the pair I received an alert on to see if there are similar setups forming on those. Currencies have positive and negative correlations, meaning some pairs move together and some pairs move opposite. For instance typically EUUSD and GBP/USD move in the same direction and EUUSD and USD/CHF typically move in opposite directions. This is largely due to economic factors. Here's a link that gives a little more insight but this one doesn't list all of the correlations out there. https://www.markettraders.com/blog/understanding-currency-pairs-correlation/. So if I see or get alerted for a potential setup on EUUSD I can check GBP/USD to see if there is a setup there too.
Enter after patten had been confirmed and is clean.
So these 5 are leading up to entering the market. Based on my backtesting, I typically get around 3-4 setups per day. Sometimes theres none, sometimes theres 10. I never ever force a trade on a slow day, I know that my pattern will happen eventually so I never take a setup I think is iffy or that im forcing. Also that is another reason I keep my risk low incase there are days where 10 trades happen that all look good. So for my session I place my trades around 5-9:30am central time and I usually close them by noon cst when NY session has ended and prices start to go flat. Occasionally I might hold for a day or 2 if I took a good trade in line with the trend and other factors. So after the trades are placed I have just one thing left
Psychology- I said this was the most important, it comes full circle for me and many other. Trading my session and my strategy means my trades could be open for 5 minutes or up to 7 hours. A good trader needs to be able to handle his emotions and trust the process. This means trusting in your setup and let it run while also knowing when to get out in case it show signs of going against you. A traders real job is to manage risk, not to make big trades or a ton of trades. The more selective you are after you've learned a pattern and having everything else in line, the better. There are 5 outcomes of every trade Big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, big loss. To become a successful trader you just need to eliminate the big losses. For me I look at a small win and a small loss basically as breakeven trades. This helps with my psychology because to me it all ends up evening out, just the cost of business. If you take a small loss or small win and let that affect your psychology going to the next trade youre hurting yourself. Sometimes I take a 5-10 pip profit instead of holding and then it going against me for a loss and sometimes I take a 5-10 pip profit and it could've been 100 pips in my favor. Oh well, I protected my account and I know more setups will come tomorrow or later this week.
That is my complete checklist for entering the market. 11 bullets to cover, 5 before you start your session, 5 leading up to entering and 1 during/closing the trade. I hope this will be beneficial to some and may try to post a little more if I see it is helpful. Thank you for still reading this far! Best wishes in your trading endeavors and 2020! Edit: I forgot to mention for a beginner or any skill level I highly highly recommend getting a simulator. There’s several out there, I don’t want to break any rules by naming which one I use, but they basically all work the same, all close to $100 which if you understand the power of backtesting you realize how necessary it is to have and that cost is nothing. A simulator allows you to download the candlestick tick data for any pair, for as far back as the pair’s chart goes. So then you can pick a day in the past, any day, pick your timeframe, and press play and the chart will start playing out like it actually did on the day it happened. So you see every little tick up and down. You can control the speed and speed it up fast so you can cover a years worth of trading of a currency in just a few hours. This makes it really easy to get a ton of accurate data in a short time. Demo trading is cool but fully controlled simulated trading kicks ass. I can’t recommend it enough. Edit 2: my apologies for showing my ass in the comments right after I spoke about the negativity in here. I posted this at local time 4 am right after I stayed up finishing my 2019 backtest results and then I noticed the 80k members and felt an inspiration to post something what I thought could be helpful. I spent over an hour on this post and the lack of sleep and 2 straight all-nighters allowed me to allow others to get under my skin after they come at me with some dumb shit. If you see a post from me just know I’ve put some thought into it and am attempting to bring value. Haters gone hate. If I see some are receiving value I’ll keep it up as long as I know it’s something valuable. Again I have nothing to sell or promote even though others assume I do just for posting this. I specifically said stay out of my inbox. Whatever I decide to teach it will be fo free. Thanks again for your time.
A few people I follow on social media use MTF Stochastic (M5/M15) and they're profitable, but of course they won't divulge their exact strategy. I did some research and found MTF StS lecture on Forex Factory made by a user "bobby2". He said here: "The best entry possible is the beginning of the trend. This will be when the MTF Stochastic (higher TF stochastic) is crossing the 50 line for the first time." I'm a lil confused: how would I know when the trend will start? The Stochastic is an oscillator, it usually goes up and down right? How would I know if the cross to the 50 line is the start of a new trend? I would appreciate all of your help and insights. I trade using a demo account under XM. Thank you all and stay safe 🥰
In Forex Trading, the most important thing is the Judgment on whether the currency will rise or fall. When the value of our target currency goes up, then we will make a profit from long positions. When the value of the currency we trade falls, then we can make a profit from short positions. How to judge the value of a currency rises or falls in a period of time? Here are three reference factors: First, The value of currencies raises in those countries that with higher interest rates. Investors in high interest countries get better returns than those in low interest countries. As a result, high interest rates attract foreign capital, leading to an increase in the exchange rate. That's one reason foreign exchange traders may be trading at rates announced by central banks such as the Fed or the Bank of England. Second, The Currency Issuance directly determines the value of the country's currency. Currencies in low inflation countries tend to appreciate because their Currency Issuance in a healthy level and have a higher purchasing power than other currencies. High inflation countries have mass Currency Issuance, so the value of their currency depreciates. The Fed issued unlimited QE recently to cope with the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the economy. The USD is Facing depreciation. Finally, the Investment Environment of the currency country has an impact on the currency value. Financial crisis, earthquake, tsunami, war and conflict bring pressure to a country's economy, worsen the investment environment, and also have a negative impact on the value of a currency. The above factors are very important for trend traders, but for day traders, only one minute price chart is needed. In this article, we introduce one of the trading methods. One minute chart trading method for day trading - Support & Resistance 1. Identify Support & Resistance The line connects with the two price reversal points called support line or resistance line. When the reversal turns to the downtrend becomes the resistance line. When the reversal turns to the uptrend becomes the support line, as shown in the figure: https://preview.redd.it/n1rlps8aqlr41.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e54ce8379831b77779496b27c66a5ac7342a1078 2. Make Positions and Set Stop Loss Make short positions near the Resistance, and set stop loss above it. Then close out positions before the price reaches the support level. https://preview.redd.it/aq7zmegbqlr41.jpg?width=670&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=295ce964f72dbc3af0ad35c5cdf424596b2f796b Make long positions near the Support, and set stop loss below it. Then close out positions before the price reaches the resistance level. https://preview.redd.it/c0o59v7cqlr41.jpg?width=670&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=679331c43f8ad12ba0849139ebe6fa6e14e92ab6 In terms of price action analysis, your profit target should not be above strong resistance or strong below support. This is a very simplified method, Support & Resistance can be found in all sorts of market environments. And this method is very effective, even if the direction of our position is wrong, we can just stop loss and close out. The loss is in our control. One minute price chart with Support & Resistance, trading easily and controllable. It is the first choice of foreign exchange trading strategy and entry-level trading method for novices. Without long-term focus on the price trend and large amount of data and news, trading become a much easier thing for us!
A brokerage’s success depends upon a client base that not only continues to grow, but also remains loyal once the account has been opened. With over ten years of experience in this industry, I’ve noticed some common themes for success which I’ll share in this blog.
Know Your Client
Trading forums have grown in popularity because they serve as a common meeting ground for like-minded traders to exchange ideas. Traders, especially those new to the business are constantly searching for tips, insights, and pretty much anything that can improve their success. By asking your clients key questions pertaining to their strategy, the time frame they follow, and the pairs they trade, you’ll have a fairly accurate idea of what they are trying to do. A brief discussion about the current market trends or a new strategy goes a long way in building trust and credibility among your clients. The goal is for them to view your brokerage as more than just the place where their trading account is held, but a place to share their thinking and get useful, personalized advice.
Know Your Stuff
If you aren’t following the markets, how convincing will you sound with a new prospect? A great way of seperating your firm from the competition is to offer more than just answers to questions. Imagine receiving a personal email from your broker with a link to an article on GBP/USD or perhaps a brief phone call regarding an important news announcement for the Australian dollar? Once you’ve gained this knowledge, start getting creative – you’ll be surprised where it takes you. The IB Times http://www.ibtimes.com/forex/ and DailyFX www.dailyfx.com are two sites I’d suggest visiting to stay on top of the markets. The knowledge doesn’t stop there though. In the fast paced, rapidly changing landscape of FX what happened on Monday is old news by the end of the week. I recommend visiting Forex Magnates www.forexmagnates.com to keep up with industry changes.
All Strategies Are Good
Picture ten traders sitting together in a room. It’s inevitable that the subject of trading strategies will emerge, most likely ensuing in a heated debate. Traders become very defensive of their strategies because they’ve put effort into developing them and more importantly feel their approach will be successful. If you wish to preserve goodwill with your clients, refrain from talking negatively about their strategy. It’s fine to introduce new ideas but make sure to tread carefully.
Every Conversation Is An Opportunity
It’s difficult to call a company these days, especially the larger ones, without feeling like the person on the other line is a machine (sometimes they are). The personal touch is crucial. The next time you field a call from one of your clients, try asking a quick question about their strategy or the market. Something as simple as “boy, the Euro sure took a spill” could possibly lead into a productive discussion. The downside is that your client is too busy to talk; in trading terms the risk to reward ratio is extremly favorable.
Have A Strategy At Your Fingertips
You are talking to a prospect who has no prior trading experience. The interest is there but without a strategy why would they consider trading? A way of bridging the gap is to offer therategies to try out on their demo. It’s also a good idea to have a few advanced stram a few simple sttegies for existing clients who are open to some new ideas. In either case your clients will perceive your brokerage not only as the place they hold their account, but a valuable resource that will help them become more successful.
I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting the stock market", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.
ok, so firstly, all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict stock market" or "predict forex" or "predict bitcoin" and terms related to those. Next, I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether. Then, Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think! THEN, Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of. Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at. Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total. Right, let's jump in. So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things. Here are the categories:
News Text Mining. - This is where they'd use NLP on headlines or the body of news as a signal.
Social data - Twitter Sentiment/Google Search/Seeking Alpha. Again, some were NLP, for google trends they just used the data.
Technical Analysis & Machine Learning together. Most of these would take the price, add TA features, then feed into a ML model.
Other machine learning (as in, not using TA). Just using the price and some other engineered features.
Analyst Recommendations. Literally just taking the recommendations from banks/brokers and using that as the signal.
Fundamental data. So ratios from the income statement/balance sheet,
Results: Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears. Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :) Now, results from the two most popular categories were:
*Social data.*A lot of research papers were extensions of or based off of a paper by Johan Bollen called "Twitter mood predicts the stock market". It literally has 3,955 citations and is complete and utter horse shit; the paper is p-hacking to the extreme. Not only could I not reproduce the results, but given the number of sentiment indicators he uses I regularly found correlations between sentiment and my data based on how I engineered it. None of these correlations held over longer time periods. Every paper that's a derivative of this one or cites it has the same issues.
*Technical analysis & machine learning.*Every paper would do something along the lines of.. take past price data for some asset (stocks, forex), then add technical analysis indicators as "features". Then either they'd run through a feature-selector that figures out the best features then put the best ones into a model OR they'd dump this data straight into the model and afterwards select the subset of instruments that it "worked" on. None of these would hold if you k-fold test them or test on different subsets of data outside of the ones used in the paper. The results are always based off of selecting favourable subsets of data.
The most frustrating paper: I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think). The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.
Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort. So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies. Simple is good :) Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.
With the help of the Auto Trendline indicator for MT4, you can implement whichever trendline trading strategy fits your style.. A trendline trading strategy is one of the most popular choices amongst Forex traders. Trendlines allows you to focus on price action, while keeping your charts free of messy indicators that look like a 5 year old’s finger painting. For any trading strategy to work, you must be consistent. Do not draw trend lines in a haphazard manner. Stick to a set of clear rules for drawing your trend lines. All trend lines in this article are drawn with objective rules taught in my trading course. You need not use the same rules, but stay consistent with your chosen method. The Trendline Trading Strategy is a forex price action trading system that is designed to trade the price bounce off the trendlines.. You will notice on your charts that price does two things when it comes to a trendline: it bounces off it which means it obeys the trendline or Identifying trend lines and how they relate to other indicators in the forex market. Channels are comprised of two parallel trend lines with prices bouncing between them. The typical strategy is to sell at top of the channel and buy at the bottom of the channel. But one question still lingers among Forex traders – how to draw trend lines? The more obvious the trend line is, the better this strategy will work. We can also use this strategy to identify a bullish reversal. Notice how shortly after breaking trend line resistance, the market came back to retest the trend line as new support and formed
Trendline Trading Strategy: 4 Powerful Techniques to Profit in Bull & Bear Markets
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