I know what you’re thinking. It’s 2020. Who the hell still uses fax machines? You’re right obviously. There can’t be many people who are still using them in this day and age, but apparently, my office is one of them. They don’t actually use it of course , but it sits there in the printing room, unplugged and gathering dust. For some reason, nobody ever dared throw it away. My guess is that nobody from management ever took enough interest, or were worried one of the old guard would throw a hissy fit if it disappeared one day. I suppose it’s one of those relics people keep around “just in case”. Whatever the reason, we’ve got one. And despite working in coding, whenever something electrical breaks in the office, I get asked if I can help fix it. (Here’s a life lesson - never show anyone at work you’re good with computers. Suddenly you’ll be working two jobs for the price of one.) Since I’m a sucker for a pretty woman, and too polite to say no, about four months ago when a pretty woman asked if I could fix the fax machine, you bet your ass I quit scrolling on reddit and headed to the printer room. Turned out to be an easy fix - it was just out of ink. But, since pretty much all our cartridges are those rip off branded ones that only work with a specific printer, sourcing new ink meant I had to order some online. After searching the cubicles I finally found the girl to let her know it should be working in a couple of days. I was hoping for “My hero” and possibly a bit of light swooning, but she didn’t even look up from her phone and all I got was a “K, thanks”. She’d just been asked by her manager to do an inventory check and passed it down the line to me. Great. This was back when Covid-19 was still just a rising trend on twitter, before the world went into full blown panic mode. Despite my best efforts to ignore current events, I still got sucked into the standard water cooler conversations that everyone was having, and I forgot all about the fax machine until the ink arrived the next week. Even after filling the fax machine up, one of its little lights was still flashing. The machine was so old, whatever symbol had been placed directly under the electric diodes had long since faded. Despite the missing symbols, I realised it was trying to print something but had no paper. Ink and paper. Heroic fix, right? The moment I loaded it with A4, this ancient little machine snatched the paper and began churning out page after page. It was that archaic nineties sound, when you could hear the ink plotter whirring back and forth. Just printing one page seemed to take almost a minute, but the pages soon piled up and just kept on coming. I supposed that even though the fax machine had been off all these years, it had just instantly resumed whatever print queue was still in its internal storage. If the fax number had been live all this time, it could well be processing every single file that had been sent to our company fax number since nineteen-ninety-whenever. Looking down at the pages it had spat out, I could see how it ran out of ink. The pages were full black and white pictures. The resolution was terrible though. I hovered around for a minute, but this machine would not stop printing. Flicking through the images, I checked to see if someone had accidentally punched in too many zeroes when they chose how many copies to print, but each page was different. They all followed the same format though, a full black and white image, and a big number in the top right corner. I puzzled over it, trying to make patterns out of the numbers, but they were all over the place. 2 782 45 99999999999999 1.315 800 The images didn’t seem to form any sort of logical grouping either. They weren’t adverts or presentation materials. They didn’t look professional or creative. They were just random. People. Things. One was just a weird floaty ball thing; it looked like a space hopper, but for aliens. I let the pile of paper flop back down and scrolled on my phone. Eventually it would print everything, surely? I was getting a little bit too distracted by the girls of ‘GoneMild’ when an abrupt halt to the fax machine’s endless whirring made me look up. It had finally stopped printing. When I moved closer to look, the light was flashing again. Out of ink.... Grumbling to myself, I headed to the supply cupboard to grab the bottle I’d bought. Luckily, I’d had to buy in bulk, so still had plenty left. Since the fax machine was running low on paper, I topped that up too. Knowing I couldn’t spend the whole day standing next to this fax machine looking at abundant cleavage, I scooped up the images, set them to one side and let the fax machine do its thing. Just before I left for the day, I went to go check on it. It had stopped printing, but only because it had run out of ink. Again. Cursing whichever moron had sent an entire graphic novel collection to the fax machine twenty years ago, I tried to see if I could somehow clear the print queue, but the buttons didn’t do anything and there was no display panel, just lights that blinked when it needed something. There’s a joke about my ex-girlfriend there somewhere, but let’s not go there. Figuring maybe it would finish overnight, I moved the fresh stack of printed pictures - still just numbers and images - next to the previous pile and reloaded the fax machine with ink and paper. It dutifully resumed whirring and spitting out new images. It wasn’t a surprise the next day to find that the fax machine’s thirst for ink (and my time) had not yet been quenched. It almost seemed proud of its new collection of prints, and I quickly flicked through to see if this pile was any different, but it was just as nonsensical and bizarre as the rest. I could - and probably should - have left it. But I was curious to see how much longer this queue would last before I reached the end. Without sitting there and counting them, there must have been easily three hundred pages of weird images. How many more could there be? Besides, the ink I’d bought wouldn’t be compatible with any of the other printers our company owned, so I might as well use it. I topped up the machine again and left it humming and chewing through a fresh pack of A4. Halfway through the day, there was a knock at my office door, and an extremely pissed off woman from upper management asked me what the hell I was printing on company time. She practically dragged me to the printing room, whilst I did a less-than-spectacular attempt at explaining the situation. “Look at this!” she said, gesturing wildly at the fax machine. The light was blinking again, as if to taunt me. On top of the fresh stack of paper was the number ‘84’, and an image of a man’s face, close up, clearly in pain. Agony might have been a better way to describe it. Even with the pixelated and crappy monotone quality of the printer, you could see the man’s facial muscles contorting, eyes clamped shut, teeth bared. “I haven’t printed any of this,” I said quickly, holding up my hands, “this is just whatever is left from the last time it was on.” “Even so, you can’t just leave them lying around,” she hissed, splaying the pages and pulling them out to show me. I’d just been looking for patterns, but she was searching for offensive images, and in the stack of hundreds, there were plenty to choose from. Images of fire and blood, people wearing sinister masks, dead bodies just lying in the street. When she pulled them out and lumped them together, it didn’t look good. “This is completely unacceptable! Get rid of them.” She picked up the rest of the papers and dumped them in my hands. As she scrambled around, the only thing I could think to mutter was “it’s still not finished printing.” “Just leave it,” she snapped, pulling out the plug and sticking the fax machine on its old dusty shelf, “it’s 2020, who still uses these things?” She was right, of course. I’d known the only reason they’d wanted it turned on was for an inventory check. Nobody actually wanted to use it. But I guess programmers are naturally curious about how things work. Or I am, at least. I still wanted to see how deep this particular rabbit hole went, but it wasn’t worth losing my job over. I’d not really noticed how bad some of the images were. I turned the pages upside down as I walked back to my office, to avoid anyone else seeing them. Hovering over the bin, I was half tempted to keep them. They were kind of cool, in a weird way. But what was I going to do with hundreds of random images and numbers? I dropped the whole stack into the bin, and forgot about it. I browsed reddit, and when my colleague came in we talked about how crazy this whole coronavirus thing was. That was before the lockdown. We started working from home before the Government shut down the country. It’s been a weird few months - like living in a really boring movie - but I was actually kind of glad to get back to work. I’m a creature of routine, I guess. Not everybody was as eager or as willing to go back to the office as I was, so the place was pretty deserted when I got to work. I did a little bit of catching up with the few faces I saw and knew, then sat down at my computer. No word of a lie, it actually had cobwebs on it. I grabbed some tissues from my drawer and wiped the screen, then as I slid across to throw it in the bin - I froze. The papers from the fax machine. In all the lockdown craziness, I’d forgotten all about them, but even the cleaners had been sent home when it all kicked off. The papers were still in my bin. The top page was still the one that I'd been yelled at for. The pained face, twisted in an excruciating grimace. Only there was a difference now that made the skin on my arms tingle. I recognised the face. The whole world recognised that face now. On a four month old piece of paper, printed in monotone black, was George Floyd. When I’d first seen this image, I had no idea who he was. It wasn’t the face the TV was showing though; the normal photo of him looking into the camera, alive and well. It was the face that you had to go on internet videos to see. Pinned down. Knee on his neck. Dying. For a moment, me and George just stared at each other. Then I reached down and slowly pulled all the papers out of the bin, shaking my head. Was I remembering things wrong? Had George died before lockdown? Even if he had, why was a fax machine printing pictures of his death? I pulled up google, and checked. George Floyd died May 25th 2020. We left the office the first week of March. I just sat there, slowly spinning in my chair, completely unable to process the image in front of me. Then I remembered there were hundreds more pages underneath. Scattering them around the table, my mouth hung open as I began to recognise things I didn’t know the last time I saw them. The weird blob that had just looked like an alien space hopper, my eyes now instantly saw it was the coronavirus, viewed under a microscope. If I’d have been paying more attention at the time, I’d have probably known. There were riots and protests, a police officer with bullet wounds in his chest, a black teenager hung in a noose, the dead bodies in the street were wearing face masks. A shiver wrapped its way around my entire body as cold realisation spilled over me. Only a few images made any sense to me, but every single one had happened after it had been printed. It couldn’t be right. Someone must have changed the pictures. They were so low quality, I must just be seeing things. I snatched the picture of George up. It was him. There was no denying it. It was him. My eyes flicked to the ‘84’ at the top right corner. Should I put them in order? I slid the papers around, searching for an ‘83’ or ‘85’, then I paused. He died almost three months after this was printed… Pulling up the calendar on my computer, I started counting backwards from May 25th. As my finger moved closer and closer to the week we’d left the office, I forced myself to count out loud, but each number just came out in a strangled whisper. “Eighty-one, eighty-two, eighty-three…” My finger pointed to March 3rd and fell away. I couldn’t physically say the number. But it was the same as the one printed in black above George Floyd’s final moments. Casting my mind back, I tried desperately to remember what day I printed off these pages. I knew I got the ink delivery on a Monday, and I was printing for one more day before I got told to stop. March 3rd was a Tuesday. The fax machine hadn’t just printed the future. It had told me how many days until it happened. As if it had been trying to warn me. In that moment, I became extremely aware of how cold it was in my office, and how quiet. My hands slid by themselves to the pile of papers, rummaging around until I could find another to verify. All the rioters were too vague; I needed something more specific. At first I passed straight over an image of Big Ben and empty London streets, but then I realised that it could represent the UK going into lockdown. Only when I pulled out the paper did I see the number. 31080 I couldn’t remember exactly how many days had passed between printing and lockdown, but somehow that seemed a little high. Maybe my day theory was just a coincidence with George. Still, here I was surrounded by hundreds of images that the fax machine had somehow known would happen before they did. I was just about to go and check the machine was still in the printing room, when my eyes landed on a page that made me pause. It showed a man in an untucked shirt and jeans carrying a large box. One that looked a lot like the fax machine. And the man looked a lot like me, even down to the clothes I was wearing. Despite the cold air, I was starting to sweat. Both my arms were trembling with faint shivers, and I puffed out a deep lungful of air, half to hear something familiar and natural, half to break the silence that was digging under my skin. I ignored the man who looked like me as best I could, and concentrated on the number. 128. Frowning, I turned back to the calendar and counted the days. One hundred and twenty eight days from March 3rd would be tomorrow. So, tomorrow I’d grab the fax machine? In the clothes I was wearing today? If I’d not seen the image, I would have gone to grab it and bring it into the office right now. Looking back at the picture, it was impossible to tell where I was going or even where I was. The background might as well have been a snowstorm for all the grainy blots and faded ink. Why was it printing pictures of me, or at least, someone who looked like me? And why such a mundane event? Fighting the urge to rip that page into little pieces, I decided to go to the printing room and see if the fax machine was still there. Weirdly, I was sort of relieved when I saw it was. Maybe I was worried someone might have taken it, and the mystery would be over. Raiding the supply cupboard for the remaining bottle of ink, I scooped the fax machine up in one arm and headed back to the office. I didn’t want to hold it like the man in the picture was, but because of its awkward shape and weight, I ended up doing exactly that. Placing it down on my desk, I unravelled the cord and plugged the fax machine in, topping it up with ink and paper. Almost immediately, it resumed screeching and chewing through the paper. Mind racing, I looked at all the printed images and numbers, spread chaotically all over my desk. Snatching up the image that looked like me, I clutched it in both hands and stared at it so hard, my eyes must have been close to boring holes right through it. It didn’t look like me. It was me. There was no denying it. Desperately glancing back and forth at the number and my calendar, I realised that most of these pages had been printed on Monday 2nd March, not Tuesday 3rd of March. By searching through them like a frantic idiot, I’d mixed them all up. If this one of me had been printed on the Monday, the number was accurate. 128 days until it had come true. The machine had predicted exactly what I’d do, and even though I saw the image, I still did it. I threw up into the bin. Some part of my brain had still been holding onto the possibility that somebody was messing with me, but the page clutched in my shaking hands was proof that this was something else entirely. The fax machine was printing the future. Hundreds of pages of events that happened after they were printed. I threw up again, dry heaving until there was nothing left in my stomach. Wiping my mouth, I screwed up the image of myself and the fax machine and tossed it in the bin. It wasn’t like the others, and I had to wrestle with myself not to grab a lighter and set the thing on fire. George Floyd and the others had been creepy. The image with me in it - that I’d literally just fulfilled - took my soul and shook it. I was sweating so much I began to stain the other papers as I ruffled through them. All the images I recognised seemed significant for one reason or another. The kind of events that history would document. How was I included? Fumbling through my colleague’s drawers, I found what I was looking for. His cigarettes. I normally only smoke when I’m drunk, but needed something to stop my brain racing. As I lit it and took a deep drag of hot vapourised tar, I dimly realised I’d never had a cigarette sober, and there was a reason for that. Puffing out thick plumes of foul tasting smoke and biting down a cough, I searched through the other images. How many had happened? How many were still to come? Were there any that were wrong? Since I’d already messed up the divide between Monday and Tuesday, I decided to take out the ones I knew had happened. It helped a little bit, and stacked together I could see my theory about the numbers equalling days needed some refinement. Images of the riots following George’s death had all sorts of digits on, ranging from 2.6 to 7862027. Since I knew they’d definitely happened, I played around with the numbers a bit, and realised that if I treated the big numbers as seconds or minutes, they would fit the timeline much better. The small numbers generally worked out as months or weeks. Except for some that I could tell were actually days. It didn’t take long for my head to start hurting, and I didn’t think it was the cigarette. So the image showed what would happen, and the number referred to when, in varying time formats. I was trying to think how I could organise the remaining images when the fax machine stopped printing. Out of ink again. God dammit. The top page was just money on a counter, and I noticed something that had eluded me on the other images. The fax machine didn’t print text. Other than the number in the corner, there were no letters or symbols of any kind on the image itself. The bank notes were blank, with Queen Elizabeth’s face the defining feature that let me know it was currency. The top left number on this one was very small. 0.0329 Placing the stack neatly on my colleagues desk - I did not want to mix these up with the others - I reached for the bottle of ink and my heart sank. It was practically empty, with only a few dribbles of black ink at the bottom. Immediately, I jumped online to buy more. With delivery times, I’d likely have to wait a couple of days to print more of the future. I bit off a laugh. What was I thinking? I couldn’t just sit on this, this was more important than some office schmuck waiting for a parcel. I needed to tell someone. The government needed this, or the UN or something. Someone who wasn’t me. Pouring the last remnants of ink into the fax machine, I took out my phone. Who to call? My boss? The police? My local councillor? My fingers hovered over the numbers, wondering how I’d prove it. All my proof had already happened. Only that angry upper management woman had seen them beforehand, and she didn’t exactly seem like someone who I could get easily get on board. I didn’t even know her name. Paralysed, I looked back at the papers, as if they might help me. The one with the money. That was a small number. It should be happening soon. The currency was British. That meant I’d got both space and time within at least some close proximity. But what did it mean? Money on a counter. That could be anything. Everybody in the country had money. I could reach into my wallet right now and put money on the- I took out my wallet and opened it up. Two fivers and a twenty. Comparing the size and the pictures didn’t take long to see that the image showed the same. There were coins on the counter too. I unzipped my wallet and began to dig out my coins. I had four, and the image only had three. Relief washed over me as I figured it was likely just an extreme coincidence. Then, as I pulled out the coins to check closer, one slipped from my fingers and clattered to the floor, bouncing and rolling away. I lurched after it, but it disappeared underneath a filing cabinet. Cursing, I examined my remaining coins. They were identical to those in the image. The one under the filing cabinet wasn’t there. This was my money. The fax machine sputtered to a stop and I leapt out my chair, half in shock, half spurred to action. It was my money in the picture. The fax machine was predicting what I’d do again. I placed my money on the table and stepped back, waiting for something to happen. Nothing did, of course. I even tried rearranging it, to closer match the image. Nothing. Looking at the fresh papers, it hadn’t even finished printing the latest one. It was still half stuck in the machine. I carefully pulled it out, and my blood went cold. At the bottom of a set of stairs, was a tangled heap of limbs. The face hadn’t been printed yet, but I recognised the untucked shirt. The trainers too, I recognised, even underneath the blood. And tauntingly, just on the edge of the image, was the fax machine. This was me. Dead. Swallowing, I became painfully aware of the number printed above the image. 6. Six? Six what, days? Years? Minutes? Seconds? If I’d had anything left to vomit, it would have come out. I needed to get out of here. I needed to take this machine and prove it was real to someone else or smash it to bits and throw it in a river or burn it or - Forcing myself to take long, deep breaths, I studied the image. What if seeing this image made me panic and leave with the fax machine? What if, in my blind panic, I slipped on the stairs, and that’s what made the image come true? Calming down a little, I realised I could just wait. There were no stairs in my office. If I just didn’t leave for a little bit longer, that ruled out seconds and minutes. I still had seven hours of my shift left, so I could rule out hours too. That just left days, weeks, months and years to worry about, right? And I could worry about them later. So I sat still for a few minutes, sickly smile growing on my face. After what could well have been six minutes, one of the lights on the fax machine lit up, blinking red. That particular LED had never lit up before, and I found myself wishing I could have some idea what symbol would have been underneath it. I decided it was because I’d beaten it. I’d not followed the future it had predicted for me, and so it wasn’t happy. Jokingly, I fed the paper back to it. “Want this back?” I said out loud with a smile. My smile shattered when the fax machine took it. It snatched the paper out my hand and garbled it in reverse, spitting out a clean white paper back into the feed tray. There was the briefest pause, and then it began printing again. Once more, it ran out of ink before finishing, and the image came out incomplete. It was almost identical. A mangled body wearing my clothes, blood covered pages scattered all around, and a fax machine lying on its side. Instead of stairs, skid marks of a tyre ran underneath the pages and my body.. My face hadn’t printed this time either, and the number 0.00476 hung ominously above me. Part of me wanted to immediately run the numbers, to see how long I had to avoid roads to stop this becoming true. But part of me knew the truth. The similarity of the images was too striking. The exact same prediction, just a different cause in a different place. Same death, just slightly later. The fax machine was apparently convinced this was my destiny. On my computer, I closed the calculator and opened a Word document. This Word document. In a moment I’ll save it and email it to you. Please note the timestamp. I’ve managed to push back my destiny once. The fax machine has shown me what to avoid and roughly how long for. The blinking red light even tells me when it’s safe. I’ve got a few strategies to survive, but this is my failsafe in case I’m wrong. It’s not like I can stay in this office forever. The pictures are important, and I’m amongst them, which means my actions are important. I can’t sit in my office hiding away, whilst the literal future of humanity sits in my hands. I’m going to get more ink. *** [ error code 54 ] (846) [ highlighted for retrieval and clean up ]
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this: gainz, bitch Why am I telling you this? Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen. So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you). If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep. This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first. THE RULES:
Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.
This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
Are you new to trading?
Are you unable to manage your own positions?
Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
Do you think Delta is just an airline?
Do you buy high & sell low?
Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you! Table of Contents: I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS IV. Busting your retarded myths V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect? Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play. Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it. I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is? Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5: How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?" "By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes! "According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."
On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences. This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin." I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:
"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? " "While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it." "So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts" "dlkdev Scratch that, helicopter money is here." "AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago What does that mean?" "It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it. Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags. Video of Billy & the Fed train Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5 Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger. So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp. Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play. I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply: Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2. If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats. You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later. RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times. RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays. RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains. RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS: So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that. RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS: Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this: Example 1: Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it. https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1 Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads) Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit. Example 2: 5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play. Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750. Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How? I have: 47x 2960 calls -47x 2955 calls Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have? 46x 2955/2960 bear calls 1x 2960 long call So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there. Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad. And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position. RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again. Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you! Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs. What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables. Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005. Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you. Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR: 2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case) So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009 After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070 End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392 Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk 2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069 2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194 2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897 Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC. https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448 That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively. Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage. There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b). Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway. $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000. What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10. $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000 And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ. Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425 $100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b $100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b $100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b $100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable. In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage. And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular. And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself. If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox. If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets. And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN". MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200." Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too? Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:
ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Index rebalancing flows
401k passive flows
Carry trade flows
Tax day flows
Flows of people front-running the flows
And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit: On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.
"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist
Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31. So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you: Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines. https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here: https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again. https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means. The reversal: https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9 But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well. https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23 Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you. https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities. Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG. Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid. Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke. Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week). And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage. Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT! And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do. Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now. Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.” Don’t baghold! Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit. And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc. And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now. The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake. And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing. Got it? Good. You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB. Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO: STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka. STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT. STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10. STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5. STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay. Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?
If you're not in bear gang, it's not too late to join, and I suggest you do so promptly because shits about to hit the fan frens. That being said, I plan on riding the "V" down and up on this one, and lastly, if you're a perma bull you're in luck I've got some companies at the bottom that I think will go up over the next few months. What's about to happen: Let's stick to the facts and correlate this puppy to a similar outbreak; H1N1: "From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus... Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated "  Since H1N1 got memory holed and everybody forgot about it, the virus became a modern flu, we have flu shots for this thing and chances are you've probably had it at one point or another -- it's just one of the flues that floats around each season. But the Corona is different... First off, this thing already has a reproduction rate higher than any of the previous outbreaks in the last 150 years . AND it's one of the most deadly -- however only to certain age groups which is a big difference . Now I do want to make it clear that the Spanish Flu was a lot deadlier to healthy adults, also the age demographics have changed. StatsCanada actually has a good tool that shows the population pyramid and you can compare Spanish Flu in 1918 to 2020 and it'll have some similar-ish results to the USA . There's also population pyramid tool here for the USA but it only goes back to 1950 . Buddy of mine with access to a Bloomberg terminal sent this to me the other day which tracks the spread of the Corona virus . Think the code is 'Map Virus' or something. What matters is that we can see a very obvious trend of exponential growth, in fact that's how you model these things... This thing will spread like wildfire once it starts to hit the cities in America, and... already has. All it takes is one 'chad spreader' to jump on the subway and it'll be a matter of weeks and the entire city is infected. In fact it's already happened in Toronto so buy puts on $CANADA . What matters is that we can see that something like ~60.8 million people who got H1N1 in the USA from 2009 to 2010 and this thing had an r0 of only like ~1.5ish. The bat soup virus currently has an estimated r0 at ~2.4 right now, mind you this is a number that varies through time and can decrease by human intervention (such as quarantines of cities), which will inevitably transpire... If we assume that this thing spreads with even some level of similarity to H1N1 in 2009, this is going to be a bloodbath for the boomers. First and foremost, this will spread at a much higher rate among boomers and those in old folks homes, we've got evidence of that already . But that's not all. Italy is fucked. They just announced a quarantine of 1/4 of their fucking population . Take wild guess how that's going to fare for their economy. The FTSE MIB is down shy of 20% from it's highs as it stands right now and its only going to get worse . Given that the Italy is basically a leading indicator of what's going to happen in the USA... I fucking DARE YOU to buy spy calls. So let's get to the nuts and bolts of this. Some autist named Dr. James Lawler stated that worst case scenario this thing could infect 96m in the USA and kill 480,000 people . However, funny enough his estimates are based on a mortality rate of 0.5%. The current mortality rate is ~3.5% so, rather, we could be looking at up to 3,360,000 dying in the USA if the mortality rate is what it currently is. However, we can math this based on the population pyramids I posted above. In the USA if we take the known mortality rates and population pyramid and transpose that on the worst case scenario, we're looking at shy 1.9m dead (mostly older people) given that 30% get the virus in the next year . If this spreads at the same rate as H1N1, then we're looking at a total of ~60.8 million infected in a year's time. This corresponds to ~18.6% of the population getting it and would result in ~1.16m people dead . Now, I'm willing to bet that my boy Donnie isn't interested in losing a massive chunk of his voting block so I'm betting that we see quarantines very soon in the USA, entire cities shut down just like we've seen in China and just like we've seen in Italy and Iran. It's going to happen and when it does, the lemmings will be shocked. I mean, this shouldn't come as a surprise, there's already runs on toilet paper in Australia over this thing . Anyways, I think we'll get a cure eventually and that everybody reading this will be fine, in fact I'm not a doomer whatsoever. Society will continue on and SPY will eventually recover and I'll join bull gang again, but I'm sure Monday will be a bloodbath after Italy quarantined like 16 million people. But back to my point, just think about what'll happen to SPY when a US city announces a quarantine. They're already preparing for it by declaring states of emergency now . The fear will be real and it already is... EDIT: Figured I'd add a bit more on Canada as I don't think it's priced in up there quite yet. Again, I took some numbers from StatsCanada  and plugged them in against current known mortality rates and we ended up with this . Estimated 234k dead which... is bad, but that's a flood of dead people in a short amount of time. Also I assume a 30% infection rate but I think this things going to have a much high infection rate because of the fact that we corral all our old into old folks homes... it just takes one sick caretaker and they've all got it and the worst part is that you can have it and spread it without even knowing . So this basically becomes a catch-22. If elderly care takers don't show up to work because they're sick, elderly people die, if they do show up, there's a chance they're giving them COVID-19, it just takes one and they'll all catch it... real morbid stuff. Basically each old folks home is a tranche in a CDO for the few of you retards that know what I'm talking about... So how do we profiteer from this? And what will inevitably transpire? EDIT 2:SPX e-minis currently trading at shy of -5%... we're hitting the circuit breakers tomorrow. Fed will drop rates again by end of week. Conclusion: I know half of you retards skipped to here but kudos to the champions that read everything I wrote.
General stock market decline, puts on $SPY or high beta stocks if IV isn't too high
for my perma-bull frens, calls on funeral home and burial companies: $SCI, $CSV, $MATW, $PLC:CA, $DTY:UK, etc. EDIT: (as u/dollarsandcents101 pointed out be careful on funeral homes... could ban funerals if this thing really get's going)
Puts on old folks care homes because those are probably going to be vacant here very shortly and thus less cash flows to investors... stocks like: $WELL, $VTR $OHI, EDIT: $CSH.UN:CA (Canadian, option chain is a lot less liquid than USA so... be careful), SIA:CA (another one, already crashing, has options, less liquid though)
I'm still bearish airlines and travel... I mean go look at the chart of $AAL. After 9/11 that stock went from $40 a share to literally $2 a share... in 2003. The same thing happened during the GFC, stock again went from over $40 a share to a fucking penny stock -- traded at like $0.30 per share. Get ready for round 3... I look forward to buying calls on airlines after this is all over.
bearish any developing country/emerging market ETF's. They're going to get hit hard.
I don't know anything about medical or medical research stocks but calls and puts on companies researching corona virus cure. Again... correct me if I'm wrong but to my understanding it's zero-sum, the company that gets a solid cure makes bank and the rest are fucked but again idk this isn't my area whatsoever. Also looks like a lot of these stocks are rocketing and IV is massive so I'm sitting on the sidelines on this one
If you're from all wanting to get in on the tendies, I saved a special one just for you! Go all in on $LVS 80C 3/13 calls, trust me. Cannot go tits up.
This is guide to US options trading from the UK, because I've seen countless requests of people browsing in /ukinvesting, /options, /wallstreetbets etc. about this. First thing's first - no part of this post is to be taken as financial advice. It is a guide on how to start options trading from the UK. Options/CFD trading is a high-risk activity and most retail traders lose money.
1. CFDs vs. Options
So getting started, options and contracts for difference (CFDs) are both financial derivatives - they derive their values from an underlying security e.g. stock, indices, currency, commodities. Long story short, CFDs do not have an expiration and options do; and at the option expiration date, options give the opportunity to buy/sell the underlying (e.g. stock) at the agreed strike price. CFDs are highly directional (delta) trades where positions require ongoing financing fees by a broker, whereas options strategies allow the trader to trade time decay (theta) as well as market volatility (vega). Options provide greater flexibility in trading strategies (time/volatility trading as well as direction); however, due to this, the more complex strategies can be difficult to understand. Spread betting allows a literal directional bet of an underlying by a certain date. It is most similar naked options - i.e. if your position moves against you enough, your broker may forcibly close your position unfavourably and/or margin call you for extra cash ("you can lose more than your initial deposit"). With options/CFDs, you can define risk by specifying a profitability range (spreads) instead to avoid this scenario. Due to spread betting being so close to gambling, it is treated as such in the UK in terms of taxation - gains are tax free. I will also add here that CFDs/options can also be used in this manner (gambling, with subsequent margin calls etc.), and that CFD brokers tend to understate the risks of these strategies, whilst almost all options brokers require elevated permissions to seek out this level of risk - this is because blowing through margin presents a risk to the broker and they would rather have commissions without the risks of the brokerage going bust. The lowest level of permissions still allows you to buy extremely highly leveraged OTM options without margin, as your max loss is limited to the amount you paid for those options.
Given that options effectively open up two additional aspects of trading (time/volatility) and require additional regulatory oversight compared to CFDs/spreadbetting, there is basically no options market in the UK - the only brokers at this time are IG/Saxo, and they only do vanilla options on Forex/Indices/Commodities. Everyone else only does CFDs and/or stock (T212, Freetrade, IG, Plus500 etc.). To engage in true stock options trading, the only choice is to open an international/US brokerage account. The two that are accessible to UK investors are Interactive Brokers (IB) and TastyWorks. Both are reputable brokers and have strong insurances for cash & securities held with them.
IB is quite expensive (£20+ pcm minimum), but is the full bells and whistles international trading platform - you may access European options as well as worldwide markets on stocks/currency/anything you want really. Recommended for high value traders/investors.
TastyWorks is the opposite - free accounts, low fees (zero inactivity, free stock trades, low option trading fees), though they charge $45 for cash withdrawals. TastyWorks primarily offer trading on US options (inc. futures) and stocks, so anything listed on the American stock exchanges are game, including international companies listed via ADRs (e.g. global UK companies, especially on FTSE100).
3. Opening an account
I will walk through some of the aspects of funding and operating a TastyWorks account from the UK, as this is my recommendation if you're here looking for a cheap way to get started. Opening a free account on TastyWorks is easy as they are used to foreign traders (form filling within 20-60 mins - you will need a photo of proof of ID and address). It typically takes 1 day for cash accounts and 2-3 days for margin accounts to be ready for funding. My referral link if you feel this guide deserves the effort is: https://start.tastyworks.com/#/login?referralCode=GD9EGGNZYZ. (mods, happy to remove this is this guide is deemed low effort) The account types are:
Cash. Recommended to start because you can always open a margin account easily later. Able to buy long calls/puts and sell covered options. No short stock allowed.
Basic (margin). Able to sell naked puts, and trade defined-risk strategies i.e. anything with a known maximum loss before entering the trade. E.g. credit/debit spreads. Note that naked puts carry significant risk - this is equivalent to CFD trading on margin, and you can have your position forcibly closed at unfavourable market rates if you overleverage. You minimum $2k to access this account.
The Works (margin): everything above, and able to sell naked calls - also easily upgraded to trade futures. Note that naked calls carry HUGE risk - this is equivalent to CFD trading on margin, and you can have your position forcibly closed at unfavourable market rates if you overleverage. The difference in naked calls and naked puts: stock can only go to zero, limiting the (huge) loss on a naked put, whereas a naked call has theoretically unlimited loss since stocks can (theoretically) go to infinity. I won't go into futures - be warned that they carry additional risks to stock options. You need a minimum of $2k, self-declare extensive knowledge on financial products and self-declare min. income of $100k + $50k net liquidity to access this account.
4. Funding the Account
Since trading US options is done in USD, the account must be funded in USD. As international traders, deposits must be "By Wire", assuming you do not have a US bank account - full instructions for the "By Wire" method will show up when you are approved to fund your account. With TastyWorks, UK traders have 3 options at time of writing, going from highest to lowest fee: 1) Starling Bank: ~1% commission (+flat fee TBC?) 2) CurrencyFair: typical ~0.75% commission +$20 flat fee 3) TransferWise/Revolut + UK USD Account: ~0.5% commission +$20 flat fee TastyWorks does not accept third party transfers (accounts not in your name), so services such as Revolut and TransferWise (inc. borderless) do not work directly 4.1 Starling Bank With Starling Bank, you can do an international wire from a GBP account directly. Easy online bank setup and probably fastest way to get started, especially if you already bank with them. Note: Starling Bank is rejecting transfers to TastyWorks 'as it sits out of our international payment provider's risk appetite' (as of 11th May) - waiting for updates Note that other routes include a $20 flat fee charged by intermediate banks before the transfer reaches TastyWorks. Haven't got confirmation that this route is charged or if Starling includes it within their higher fee. 4.2 CurrencyFair TastyWorks have approved transfers via CurrencyFair with a guide at: https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000435321-can-i-use-currencyfair-to-fund-my-account- Easy to get started, but a couple hoops to jump through to confirm your transaction to TastyWorks via email. Note that the $20 flat fee is for an intermediary bank to take their cut between CF and TastyWorks, but that is not mentioned on the CurrencyFair website. 4.3 USD account + TransferWise/Revolut The cheapest option is to set up a USD currency account and transfer through that. The account of choice is the Barclays USD Foreign Currency account - you need a current account with them to be able to open the USD account. HSBC also have an offering, but not had this route confirmed. Once the USD account is open, you can transfer into it using Revolut/TransferWise (cheap) and then international (wire) transfer from Barclays account to TastyWorks (free!). Note that the Barclays USD account is still a UK bank account, so you'll need to use a SWIFT transfer from Revolut/TransferWise to turn your GBP into USD. Note that the $20 flat fee is for an intermediary bank to take their cut between Barclays and TastyWorks, but that is not mentioned on the Barclays website. 4.4 Withdrawals To withdraw funds, do the opposite for a deposit, noting that $45 will be charged by TastyWorks per withdrawal.
5. Getting Started
I highly, highly recommend TastyWork's education centre and their TastyTrade videos, especially if you are new to this. Otherwise, once funded, it's as simple as downloading the app on mobile, using the browser trading screen, or downloading their full desktop platform. That's it for the guide - happy trading, and if there are any questions, feel free to get in touch and I'll edit the answers in here. I want this to be a resource because I've helped many people get started, and it would be good to have it all in one place!
I Dated a Scammer for 5/6 Months - from August 2019 till January 2020 - [LONG]
So I don't have any other place to post this since the person in question has NO idea about my Reddit account, but one way or the other, this needs to come out because I have a right to tell my story and to spread awareness of people like this who live in this world. If you THINK you know this person, think again! After you finish reading this, you'll never look at them the same way again. Let me set the stage first. It all started in 2019. I got out of a bad long-distance relationship with a trans female who wound up ghosting me for 12 months after that. Quick side-note, we wound up talking and worked things out to get closure (she dumped me). ANYWAYS, I was feeling so alone and so empty after not only being ghosted by that person but also from being stood up by another person where they made me waste a whole night waiting on them. After getting fed up over the situation, I did as any sane person would do and go to the MeetMe app, as well as sift through Facebook Dating. It was then that I finally found someone, someone I went to high school with, in 10th grade, someone who went by the name of Krista. Krista was a girl who was interested in me, but at the time, I wasn't interested in her. It got to a point where she left my school because I kept turning her down. Up until last year, I felt bad for doing that to her, and you'll see why this is no longer the case - me not feeling bad about it. This started in August. We started talking and wound up exchanging phone numbers to text because let's face it, who on earth would want to invest time into messaging for days on a dating app? It all started pretty normal, but not for long, as things start to get much, much weirder. It started when we were trying to make plans to meet. As I've already outlined above, I went to school with this person for a brief time, so I know they're real - or at least that's what I was hoping. The verdict is still out on that one, and likely will forever be the case. But anyways, making plans made me realize this was no simple task, and here's why. Spoiler alert, we never ended up meeting. Do you think that's the end of this twisted story? Oh man, there's SO much more we have to cover. So, back to making the plans. Since she lived no more than 20 minutes away, I didn't see it as being much of an issue, but here's where the problems STARTED. Just so this isn't repetitive for you, let me summarize this in a nutshell. We would make plans (oftentimes the plans being she'd come to meet me at my house and we'd go from there), then for some reason, she would always take a long time to text me back. When she FINALLY did text me back after leaving me waiting for what felt like hours, she would claim that she had to go to the hospital for some arbitrary reason, whether it be: seizures, car accidents, or just about every excuse under the sun. In the end, my hopes would be let up, hours would be wasted, and we would never meet. Oh, you think I'm done yet? NOPE! I've got SEVERAL more paragraphs to go. This is only the tip of the iceberg! Now, I know I haven't mentioned this yet, but there will be at least two names mentioned here - Krista, and Kira. Make a mental note of these, because they'll be important later on. One day, I would get a text from Krista, saying that she is low on iTunes credit to pay for her Music subscription, or to - and let's be honest here, waste money on games with micro-transactions. I decided to be a nice person and send her a $25 iTunes card via email. You would think that that would be the end of it right? RIGHT??? Wrong! This turned into a DAILY thing, where I would wake up to her asking for MORE and used the SAME excuses as before. I of course sent it, thinking her requests were genuine. This went on for quite some time until she claimed that her Apple ID was "hacked by her friend". This "friend" of hers, also went to my high school at the time, so I knew them quite well too, to a degree. Anyways, Krista claimed that she got her account back, so being a person that knows a LOT about security, I told her to enable 2FA ASAP so that it doesn't happen again. That's enough about Krista for a bit. Let's move on to this "Kira" person for a brief moment, as this whole money thing also extends to them. I would get a text one evening from this Kira person, asking me if I could send them a....you guessed it! - an iTunes card to "surprise Krista" with, which was a $25 card. Mind you, I never gave this person my number, so this was only the beginning of the sketchiness of the situation. I initially told this person that I was extremely high on my credit card because of all the expenses (50% of them were from Krista constantly asking) but that I would be able to send it to them in a few days. It looked like they had agreed to the deal since they said they were okay with it. I woke up the next day to a text from the same person, asking me if I could send the card "now". But wait, didn't they agree to wait? I pointed this out to the person, and also pointed out how things just didn't line up very well with everything else. Anyways, to get this person off my case, I sent them a $25 card, despite my fragile situation. Mind you, this whole time, Krista was "sleeping" and was "feeling sick" - this all took place the night after one of the failed meetups. This then escalated to Kira (who I'm convinced was Krista the whole time) asking for ACTUAL FUCKING MONEY via bank transfer. This meant that she was required to provide me with an email address to send the transfer - no banking info/routing info was needed. It started at $80 for "food" and even "promised" to bring Krista to me if I sent more - $100. To poke holes in this logic, I asked what would happen if I didn't meet the $100 threshold since it was implied that no $100=no Krista. The response I got implied that even if I did $80, she would "still bring Krista to me" so that honestly made no fucking sense, as you would have to give an incentive and double down on that to make such an incentive effective. Anyways, I wound up sending the $80 - because I felt like there was no real incentive to go higher than that. Fast-forward into later in the evening, some texts were exchanged between me and this "Kira" person, where Kira was threatening me not to tell Krista anything about what was being said, and that Kira would be "very unhappy" if she found out I was telling Krista any of this. Krista was also texting me at the time and was "in the hospital" again because of a "fever". Her "cousin" Kira was also messaging me, asking for more money. I'm pretty sure I ducked out on this one since I gave statistical information, such as how much was on my credit card, how much money I had in my bank account, etc. She wasn't hearing ANY of it. She also called Krista mean names, like a "big fat cow" and talked about her in a way that no real cousin would ever talk about their family. It was at this point when I had it with this Kira person and stopped responding to them for a while. I took the time to do a carrier lookup of their phone number, and sure enough, the results came back as a VoIP company that provides services to texting app companies (think of it like TextNow, TextPlus, etc). This person was using a FUCKING texting app to text me - which is why I said earlier that am convinced that this was Krista the whole time. I tried to confront Krista about this, and all Krista was able to tell me, was that her "cousin" was using that as her "main number" because they "couldn't pay for their phone bill". Seriously, what normal person uses a texting app for their main number? - not to mention the fact that texting app numbers are generally not for life, and that they get recycled and reused by other people. Oh, but I didn't stop there, as I had done the same for Krista's number, but luckily it came back as an actual Canadian carrier, so there was some genuineness with this number, and that I had reason to believe that Krista was the one using a texting app to pose as another person. The next day, Krista/Kira (from Krista's number) tried asking for more money, but I wound up standing my ground for once and saying no. It was at this point, that "Kira" said she was going home (Kira claimed to have been from the UK) so I would "never hear from her again" and I was like "good!" because I was done dealing with that bitch. About a week passes by and I was told that Kira was put away for "trying to kill herself". And what do ya know, a few days later, Krista would then tell me that Kira "killed herself". But WAIT a fucking minute! How could Kira kill herself if she's been put away in a mental institution? Her "uncle" even confirmed it (this was coming from Krista's number too btw) This immediately confirmed that Krista was the one behind all of this. A month passes by this time and it's October. There were more requests for money, each of which I denied. It got to a point where I had to blacklist Krista from asking for money for the next 3 months and made her verbally agree through texting, that she wouldn't attempt to break the ban, nor would she attempt to scam or extort me for money. This was going well for about 2 months until 25 days were remaining on her ban. Keep in mind, the whole time she would promise to pay me back after each transaction, but guess what? She NEVER did. Fast-forward to about January (Christmas was a bust btw in case you haven't guessed) and I would wake up to see a text from her asking for - and you're gonna shit your pants, $200 for "surgery" at a hospital for a "brain tumour removal". I gave a friendly reminder that she was breaching the agreement by asking for, not only a LOT of money (more than her weekly and monthly limits combined) but also asking for it DURING her ban. I, of course, stood my ground and referred her to the different sections of the agreement (I'll probably put it at the end of this for those interested) that outlined how much she was allowed to ask for during any specific time, and that during her ban, she was NOT allowed to ask for more. She kept pushing and pushing, and. and I kept standing my ground. When Krista didn't get what she wanted, she brought her "friend" into the situation (it was implied that Krista gave this friend her phone - but we all know what's going on) and tried to bribe me (also a breach of agreement) by saying they'll "pay me back" and "bring me my game". Side-note: Krista allegedly bought me LM3 for the Switch, so I was waiting since OCTOBER for the game. This friend, or should I sai Krista, also sent me sexually suggestive content to try to seduce me and give in to their "friend's" demands. I kept holding my ground and didn't even give two shits about what I was seeing in said content, because I was beyond pissed that this was happening again. Anyways, to make a long story short, this "friend" of hers was trying to pay for surgery with CASH, and assumed that I would help, even though I kept saying that I wasn't willing to help for obvious reasons. Plus it wasn't like I had $200 just laying around. This person attempted to use guilt tactics on me, but they weren't working because I built up a defence against them after having been subjected to them from others. It was claimed that they were "taking the tumour out" but that they also couldn't proceed without payment. What????!!??? Two contradicting statements right here! Anyways, after a day or two, I decided that enough was enough and that I was FUCKING DONE with this person. I sent them a text which read (and I still have it): "Okay look, I’m not going to beat around the bush or sugarcoat things. Instead, I’m going to tell you how it honestly is from my point of view. Over the past 6 months, I’ve been nothing but patient, and understanding to the best of my abilities. I’ve even tolerated the most unusual things, all because of the glimmer of hope you kept giving me about our meeting. Every time you cancelled or ghosted me, it was a stab in my heart and needless to say, it was torture for me. My mom hated to see me go through the same thing every single time. I also feel like you took advantage of me. Asking me for iTunes cards daily, telling me they were all for emergencies, and then 4 months later, telling me it was all fake, made me not able to trust you as closely as I did. It was at that point that I wrote up an agreement, that you verbally agreed to. Speaking of the agreement, I felt like ever since I put it into place, and restricted you for 90 days, that your communications with me had slowed. Starting, we used to talk for hours. Later on, it got to the point where I would only be so lucky to talk to you for only a 10th of that time, forcing me to wait all day (to be fair, I sleep for the majority of it) and all evening. It feels as if the only reason you used to text me so much, is because I used to give you money of some kind, and that kept you coming back for more. As soon as I put restrictions on you, and the fact that you’ve been texting me less and less, is only further evidence to support my original theory, especially after you violated and attempted to work around the rules I had set out for you to follow. I’ve talked to many friends about the scams I’ve been victimized in during the last 6 months and even described some of the events that have happened. A lot of people are feeling a little weary, stating that this isn’t how a normal and healthy relationship works. I’ve had my suspicions, such as me betting on you cancelling on me, even weeks before our scheduled dates, and I’m right 100% out of all those times. What I want to tell you, is that I can’t keep going like this with you, and as unfortunate as this is for the both of us, I’m going to have to terminate this relationship. I haven’t been happy for over 4 months, and I’ve always made it a point not to hide that from you. I’ve noticed that the frequency of our fights have increased, and I feel like if we keep going, it’s only going to get worse over time. As much as I love you - and believe me, I still do, this is just too painful for me to deal with. I know I made a promise, but realistically, I can’t keep it, not when this is going to destroy me on the inside. All I’m going to say is if you want me back, come find me IN PERSON. I expect to still get what’s rightfully mine: the game you got me, the money you owe me, and whatever else you want. I’m sorry, but I honestly feel like it’s for the best. All these health problems and cancellations are taking an emotional toll on me, and I just don’t know if I can take it any longer. I’ve held out for as long as I could, but I’m afraid that, that time is nearly up." She then came back and said that it was "all my fault" and that she "did nothing wrong". She then promptly told me to "delete her off of anything" - uh yeah sure, wipe away the evidence why don't ya! She also made an excuse that she was "scared" that she'd get hurt again while AGREEING to have a relationship with me. Like, bruh, if you weren't ready, you should've told me sooner, and not let this drag out for 5+ months. I then broke off communication with her, until a month later when she messaged me on IG, asking for more money for "food" and that she "got her surgery" that she was too poor to pay for at the time. I, of course, kept holding my ground and not giving in. At this point, things were pretty much over as far as trying to talk sense into this person. It was then that I made a Facebook page to expose her by uploading all kinds of screenshots and videos about her. She caught wind of this, and threatened to charge me for "harassment". She claimed to have talked to the police AFTER I did what she asked of me - because she threatened to do it if I didn't. So I feel like this is the only safe place I can post this and hopefully get some recognition for my trouble. I'll be attaching the agreement, for proof of everything talked about here. I'm sorry this was such a long read, and honestly, it took over 2 hours to write this, but I feel like this NEEDS to be out there so that others don't fall victim to these types of scams. Now for the agreement: "Agreement Between [my real name] & [scammer's name] Please READ the following Agreement carefully. The term “AGREEMENT” will reference this entire document as a whole. The term “BOYFRIEND” will make reference to [me]. The term GIRLFRIEND will make reference to [scammer]. TERMS & CONDITIONS These terms and conditions will be effective upon being agreed to. Below are the Terms & Conditions of this Agreement. Any breach of these Terms & Conditions may result in Termination. (please see TERMINATION section) SECTION 1 - Sending Money to Boyfriend Sending money to Boyfriend is optional and is often not required, unless otherwise stated outside of the Agreement. For example, if an outstanding amount is owed to Boyfriend, then Girlfriend must pay Boyfriend back to avoid a breach of this Agreement. Boyfriend will not ask, beg, bribe, guilt, manipulate or extort money from Girlfriend for any reason. It is Boyfriend’s responsibility to manage their finances. SECTION 2 - Receiving Money From Boyfriend Girlfriend may request under the following conditions. These conditions also extend to any friends, family or acquaintances.a) Transactions are NOT guaranteed 100%b) Girlfriend must not ask constantly, beg, bribe, guilt, manipulate or extort money from Boyfriend for any reason. It is Girlfriend’s responsibility to manage their financesc) Girlfriend may request money within the following amounts below:- No more than $50 per week- No more than $100 per monthIt is advised that Girlfriend stays within these limits to avoid breach of this Agreement. SECTION 3 - Fraud Prevention This Section of the Agreement is effective as of October 31, 2019. Either party will not participate in scams or other fraudulent activities, or involve other parties outside of this Agreement. For example, Boyfriend will not scam or extort money from Girlfriend, nor will Boyfriend be permitted to use an outside party. Breach of this section will result in immediate Termination of this Agreement. SECTION 4 - Termination This Agreement is subject to Termination at any time from either Boyfriend or Girlfriend if breach of any part of this Agreement or Contract occurs. Termination of this Agreement may include restrictions on asking either party for money for a set length of time. The length of time is determined at the sole discretion of the party member initiating the Termination. For example, Boyfriend initiates Termination. It is up to Boyfriend what restrictions to apply, and for how long. Optionally, either party may impose an “Appeal Date” (see Appeals section for more info) in which the party being restricted can appeal on that date. Otherwise, the restricted party must wait out the number of days until said restriction is lifted. SECTION 5 - Appeals Appeals may be offered at the discretion of the party member in this Agreement who initiates the Termination. The restricted will not appeal before the Appeal Date. Appeals before the Appeal Date will be automatically denied. SECTION 6 - Changes to Agreement Boyfriend or Girlfriend may adjust any terms of this Agreement at any time. Doing so will require a THIRTY (30) day Notice to the other party in this Agreement. The changes to the Agreement will not be effective until the Notice period has passed. For example, Boyfriend proposes a change in Section 2 on November 12, 2019. Section 2’s changes will not be relevant until December 12, 2019, and therefore can not be used or enforced until such time. By replying with “I agree to these terms”, you are agreeing to this Contract as well as the Terms & Conditions, and that this Agreement will be effective immediately. You also agree that the terms of this agreement may be changed at any point with proper Notice." I realize that the above agreement was poorly thrown together and that this was not run by a lawyer, but I needed something to keep this scammer at bay for a few months and test their loyalties when it came to what they cared more about - me or money. Anyways, that's all I have to say about this. Because of this experience, I'll never be able to trust anyone ever again, and I now have PTSD because of this. If you're Krista and you're reading this, go fuck yourself. For everyone else, I thank you for taking the time for reading through this. I realize how much of an idiot I was, and I am very disappointed in myself for not only letting this go on for the length of time that it did, but that I would even send money to someone I haven't met in person. It's safe to say that going forward, I will be much more strict and far less forgiving since I'm DONE with taking people's shit. Yes, I've blocked this person on everything I've ever talked with them on, and yes, I still have all her info and every shred of evidence on her if it's required in the future. Anyways, I wanted to post this to not only tell my story but to spread awareness on this sub that there are psychopaths out there like Krista. Thanks again for reading, I really appreciate it.
This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700. Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that.. Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable.I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom. Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow.Update 2:Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.
Intro: Are we in a recession?
If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession
Improving economic health indicators
Accurate pricing reflecting the end of the recession and tempered optimism
We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullishpricing.
What do you mean by pricing?
It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed. This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.
Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in. There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload. Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.
Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.
Do retail investors move the market?
No, they act as a sentiment indicator that the market is reaching a peak absurdity. Similar sentiments have preceded major recessions in the past. When you hear a layman offering stock tips or googling how to buy stocks then we are reaching the precipice of a depression. new market entrants are not the same as traditional retail investors.
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
That is hard to say because the majority of retail trades are done off-book. The trades are mixed in with portfolio moves or using the retail service which is a dark pool.
Are retail investors dumb money?
Well, no. Kind of. It depends. This white paper indicates that retail investors are more knowledgeable, more profitable and better informed than previously thought. However, a lot of their trades, as mentioned above, are done off-book as part of a larger portfolio and they simply lose a fraction of a basis point because market timing is not that critical.
What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?
Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons. The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed. The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable... ...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.
“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”
Main body: Onto the S&P
In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge. That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source. But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share. Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present. For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.
In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%. That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop. You can see that in this chart here.
The market drop was approximately 56% and the Dividend drop was 14%
The market drop was 56% and the earnings drop was 85%
Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...
S&P ATH: 3386 to 2488 on April 4th (26.5% drop)
S&P ATH Dividend: From $63 expected to $38 (a 41% drop)
S&P ATH EPS:
If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008. If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment. In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).
You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis
I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.
New market indicators
Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day. Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08. This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low. Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.
Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?
The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening. In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions. It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield. The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.
With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale” That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.
I am long VIX to 78 (expected by end of Apri but ideally by 24/4)
I am short India to 7800 (expected by 15/05)
I am short S&P to 2200 (expected by mid-late of May)and will be to 1810-50
I am short Dow to 19000 (expected by mid-late May)and will be again to 17000
I am short FTSE to 5200 and will be again to 4800 (expected by mid-late May)
No current active hedges / all spreads due to being tax free profits in the UK
Further spread betting the swings to the upside where I can to scalp
I am holding a portfolio of streaming services and gaming companies
I am holding Microsoft and Disney
I own a very small quantity of crypto, primarily XRP
Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?
Yes. In a nutshell. But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.
If companies are using 0% interest rates to take out loans and then transferring those loans a small 1% of the populace via dividends; that bill will come due to the citizen taxpayer and/or shareholder of the future
If companies are taking federal or governmental aid to furlough workers but still paying dividends to shareholders? That bill will come due to the citizen taxpayer and effectively is an even more extreme form of socialising market losses; it means that we truly can never have a correction since the top 1% will lose. Not lose the investment itself, which can rebound, but will simply lose the yield on an investment and only for a short period of time. If we have reached a point where that is considered unacceptable then we truly are living in a new socialist, centrally planned world.
Here is Tesco defending their decision today of £635m in dividends...despite receiving considerable amounts of VAT, Rates and Rental relief from the UK Government (£585m)...they have done an admirable job and are profitable but this market signal and their stated reasons for doing so are alarming.
CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also... Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people
Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus
u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position. The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance. When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably. https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/ That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth. We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe. If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor. Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data. If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest. If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time. So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care. If you want to know what is going on...
Look at the short term fundamentals
Zoom out. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even longer timeline. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even even longer timeline. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even even even longer timeline. Re-look.
Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan. How do the FED take money back out of the economy? They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency. So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money. The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.
2 out of the 4 necessities for exiting a recession are not present
S&P currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year average dividend
In previous recessions a 50% drop in the market was accompanied by a 15% drop in dividends
Market analysts expecting for a 41% drop in dividends but only trading a 26% drop in the market. At present the S&P dividend per share drop is 41% but the S&P is rallying back to less than 20% drop...whilst dividends are not expected to return to 2019 levels of income for 8-10 years
In previous recessions the dividend per share drop is much less than the overall index drop
S&P highly overvalued, completely inverted when compared with dividend expectation and market dividend pricing
S&P pull back to 1600-1800 over short-medium time frame (1 month-6 months).
If market history is to be believed then 1400 is not unfeasible based on percentages but you have to be hoping for a total economic destruction for this to happen.; expect a total Governmental response if this happens.
If S&P continues to rise then it indicates companies are taking on debt or other instruments to pay dividends rather than innovate, upgrade or consolidate their business position which some are (Shell etc).
Economic data will eventually overpower the stimulus and the Coronavirus is not priced in; hardly anything is priced in and analysts are now saying so publicly.
Stock market rallies don't simply end because people wake up one day in mass and decide things are over priced. There's a catalyst. Lacking a catalyst, assuming current assumptions around the COVID-19 recovery hold true, it's fair to expect the market to work higher. Sprinkle in FED action, which while down 89% from it's 3/25 peak, still dumped another $65 billion into the financial system. Bulls are expecting a quick recovery, and while battered, they haven't been knocked off that position. There's continued discussion around a vaccine, optimism, stage 2 trials, and numerous companies and universities pursuing it. We're north of 300k daily tests, and the positive test rate is declining, states are reopening, we got through Easter, and we found remdesivir effective. P/E is high, but even if you believe that governments are propping equities up, this ponzi scheme still puts US equities at the top, likely to bleed the least and profit the most. It's not to say a dip wasn't warranted, it was just an over-reaction, hope you enjoyed the ride back to appropriate valuations. Money right now is easy. Interest rates are low, and will remain there, maybe even negative, with a FED heavily accommodating of markets. Liquidity is flowing like rain, banks across the globe are jumping on the QE train. Shorting the market is shorting the governments ability to continue the rally, and as Buffet says, don't bet against America. Oh, and guess what, Congress is going to hand everyone more money.
Despite the optimism, the Fed can't create demand. Consumer spending is not going to come back to where it was. Millions will remain unemployed, the jobs aren't all coming back. The idea of a V shaped recovery is ridiculous, even a U shaped recover is irrational. Given the market expects such a recovery, the theta from news is going to burn bulls, day over day as the recovery doesn't manifest with the expected velocity, gravity of expectations will pull bulls to the ground. June will see auto delinquencies appear in servicer reports, by end of July extensions 3 month payment extensions run out, auto repossessions will begin again, and the extra unemployment comes to a close. With September comes standard unemployment insurance running out for initial layoffs, followed by the end of our foreclosure moratorium. Now imagine we never get a vaccine, it's never proved easy for other SARs diseases, why would this one be any different? The market hasn't priced in a significant bounce. States reopening too soon. The US outside NY/NJ/PA still rising in case counts, and people are sick of being quarantined. Oh, and good luck getting the US culture to adopt masks. The market expects COVID to be beaten, when the reality is it needs to be endured. We've shot most of our stimulus shots, we shot wildly and while some hit, we wasted too much and we will pay in time. This virus will be with us for years, and so will the impacts. The world is heading for a recession, and they'll drag the US right down with them.
Both cases above have some FUD, but both also have merits. First, separate Main Street (consumer and production economy) from Wall Street (financial markets), as they are different. The FED can do wonders for financial markets and in turn Wall Street, but it can't manifest demand. Congress can. Stimulus can. There likely will be another round of stimulus and it'll boost spending, can kicked down the road. Now it may not come until June, but US equities are strong and as long as the assumption holds, so will the near term impact of it's expected arrival. Sure, the house of cards may fall in time, but what's going to bring it down? We lack a clear short term catalyst. The bulls ate more straw off our camel's back than bears threw on. States are reopening, there's talk of more stimulus, curves are flattening, positive treatments, vaccine's progressing, and the market is recovering. The bearish news is the unknown, the whispers in the wind, we'll see in two weeks, wait until September, and the reality that so much is wrong with Main Street, that things can't be this positive with Wall Street. Can't say they're wrong, but they don't weigh as much. The market's priced in awful Q2 results, with no guidance, and a market that by it's nature wants to rise, there's little besides whispers to hold it down.
In Search of a Catalyst
So what could bring what we feel, and the equity market into better alignment? We need a catalyst, some options:
Consumer Spending - Eventually, Wall Street and the financial market is still tied to Main Street and the need for production via demand from a consumption economy. If unemployment remains low, and wages decrease, you can throw stimulus at it, but spending will drop. As spending drops, the volume of decline, if severe, can open up a world of hurt for equities as guidance and P/E fall as a reaction.
Bankruptcies and Defaults - Governments can solve liquidity issues and prop up prices, but good luck fixing the solvency of a business when margins crash due to lack of spending and debts exceed the ability for business (or people) to pay them. Less hoarding cash by businesses (profitable for financial institutions), more drawing down (cash crunch), more borrowing. Add to that regulatory tightening for banks post 2008 and minimum levels required will strain them further. All this can create a rush to hoard cash, which will restart a massive equity outflow. The challenge is, I don't see this coming near term, even if you believe it is coming.
The Dollar - The dollar is the standard of the world, but that's not always great, especially when supply causes issues. When you have massive debt that results in bankruptcies, the money supply starts to dwindle as unemployment ramps, confidence fades, money gets hoarded, and deflation sets in. This unavailability of dollars is a huge risk. Currencies are getting crushed by the dollar, negative interest rates could become a trigger of insolvency, an outflow of equities to generate cash, and a massive crash as a result.
Significant COVID Resurgence - Obviously, anything approaching a country wide lock down in the US will send markets back to their knees.
Guidance - As the recovery comes, guidance will return. More than half of Wall Street has pulled guidance, less than a quarter are expected to offer full year guidance, and analysts are flying blind. As that spigot turns back on, the reality of impacts could be more bearish than expected similar to how we saw with Q1 under-performing. CEO's tapering FY21 expectations, discussing reduced consumer sentiment, shifts in culture, and a recovery that carries deep into 2022 could be enough to tip companies to truer valuations.
Reality - As all of the above hit in less severe degrees, there is the sum of parts which becomes significant enough that equities fall, perhaps not at an accelerated pitch, but fall significantly all the same.
None of the above are assured. There is an ever increasing reality that this market has a bottom. I struggle to comprehend that at times, and there are so many threads to pull that can crumble things. But perhaps the FED is able to unwind QE without impact, perhaps the dollar's global position is the strength needed for the US to recover faster despite being hit harder. Perhaps. Right now, my sentiment is short term bull. Medium term uncertain. Long term bear. Unclear on if we've found bottom. This past week has trended bullish across the board.
The Next Play
The only thing this weekend tells me is: be patient. It's unclear our direction, even in the near term. I could make a case in either direction. This week, is going to be a short term week. I'll avoid holding overnight, avoid going long (barring very clear signals), and will play the swings (up or down) as my TA dictates. I like to end "plays" when a theme shifts, it helps me avoid chasing losses, so that's what I'm doing and I now consider my prior play done, and failed. I've allocated another $5000 to a new play, I'll call this play "Patiently Waiting". I expect most positions this week to be smaller, in the $500 to $1000 range, in and out, and I'll be surprised if I fully deploy my allocated capital at one time. I don't have a planned entry. I doubt I do anything before noon on Monday, if Monday at all. I'll create a shorter post once I find my entry, and will track critical TA for the week as well as the profitability of the play in there.
There's a bull case, there's a bear case, the bull's had a stronger week. Many links, much news. No clear TA giving confidence in a position, will take short term day trades while waiting for clarity to emerge, will add a post later to track how much I lose.
5/12 @ 7:00 : I said I'd make a new post when I found a move, but also said I didn't think I'd do much Monday. I ended up not doing anything Monday. Wedge forming We saw a major wedge break on the 23rd of April. As it's downside break failed, a new wedge started forming, which lead to my exit from my prior play. The wedge has continued to hold since. I hesitate to trade it yet, but it's a converging indicator along with the .618 FIB retracement, you can see the two together formed a strong resistance to the upward movement on the 8th and 11th, forming a double top. The wedge says it's time to retest the bottom support, and in theory we should see movement downward today into tomorrow. I'm not planning to play it, but you could enter some 5/15 290p if you see it bounce top of wedge today. You'd need to exit by tomorrow at latest, exit by EOD may be the best play, really depends on where it goes. 5/13 @ 7:00 : Bummer. Life got in the way of about a 200% gain trade, would have opened around 1.3 and closed north of 4 on a 5/15 290p. I didn't get to play it. The wedge was strengthened by yesterday's movement: SPY this morning, 200d EMA on 1 HR interval acting as support ES and the same wedge Above you'll see SPY and a slight dip out of wedge, open will see us right back in. ES never broke wedge due to lower lows on 5/4. It's a better than average bet we stay in wedge today, which gives us a 6 point 287 to 293 range. SPY closes with support at 287 in wedge, yet on the ES, the wedge supports at 282, truth might be somewhere in the middle. If we open 286.5 to 287 range, I'll enter a 3-4 contract position of 288c. Be mindful, everyone thinks the FED buying ETFs is a tailwind, I see it as a short term headwind given the outflow of equities to the newfound safety in those bonds as a result. But that's a macro view, and this week, I'm intraday. 5/14 @ 7:00 : Let's start with unemployment. The estimate for claims this week is 2.7m, the smallest gain in 8 weeks, but still pushing us to over 35 million unemployed since early March. Some estimates have ~5m people returning to work in the past few weeks, but the flow is still higher towards layoffs. They've been button on of late with estimates, I expect them +/- 250k, anything with a 2 in the front isn't going to move the needle. As to market direction ... .5 FIB Supporting Bears couldn't break the .5 FIB, it held back on 5/4 and it held yesterday, though saw 15% more volume this go and was a deeper cut at breaking. We have had two straight large red days, we bounced off a support line, and are in oversold territory (that indicator flashed literally right as we bounced off the FIB, trended down since). A really nice bear case would see us retest the FIB, break it, and thus the neckline, forming a really nice head and shoulders from the 4/5 time frame. I don't see it as likely, but breaking the 280-279 churn sees us down towards 272-273. Don't trade this as a prediction, lazily drawn example. A more likely scenario is we track the 5/4 bounce, but don't bounce as high, before regrouping to retest the FIB once more. Our rising channel from the bottom. We've been in a rising channel for some time, quickly bounced into the churn zone, decided we were bullish, and started tracking the upper segment with support holding all the while. Of late we're fading, and there are signs it's time to give our supports a good test. The natural rise in the channel paired with fading momentum could cause us to naturally coil for a while before enough energy returns for a strong move. I'll be watching today, might look to enter a 5/15 283c position, not something that would look to track the full height of the rebound, rather the initial velocity and bounce, which should occur today into AH assuming we confirm that as our direction. 5/14 @ 7:30 : On 5/12 we saw the wedge, and thought it's likely it bounces off the top and test support. On 5/13 it did just that. On 5/14 we expected a bounce off the .5 FIB, and that's what we got: Blue are yesterday's expectations, green what we got. Don't trade that second bounce yet. 5/4's bounce was 115 points, current was 96. The 5/4 pullback was 68 points or 54% of bounce, current is 37 points or 39% of bounce (though still forming, assuming 2824 holds as support). 5/4's continuation bounce was 121 points or 105%, let's assume we get 83% of that bounce (same as initial comparatively), that would see us to about 2924. You'll notice that aligns with my hastily drawn bounce chart yesterday. If gravity is taking hold, you'd expect our second bounce on the second test of the FIB to be smaller, the second dip could go either way:
Smaller: 2824 holds as support. We got a smaller initial bounce, a smaller still dip, and likely a smaller still second bounce, perhaps towards 286-292 range.
Bigger: If our second dip breaks 2824, I'd expect us to retest the .5 FIB. If that were to happen, we're really putting a beating on that FIB level, it's not proving as oversold as it was, and each test weakens it further. We could bounce right off it, or the really bear case bursts through it before bouncing.
There are a lot of scenarios here. I can't make a call. I can say that you can see gravity in the charts. We weren't as oversold on this FIB test as we were on the 5/4 test. We didn't rise as high into overbought territory this time before turning back down. I can see downward momentum building. A head and shoulders that I don't quite believe in. There's a weak head and shoulders that strengthens with a downturn. I don't put much stock in it, but fun to watch anyways. For whatever reason, I just can't get on board with a really bearish short term outlook. Our general channel Instead, my gut tells me we stay in this rising channel, trending towards the middle chop zone. That leaves the market very sideways, with energy continuing to coil, for what could then break either direction, though which my gut says breaks downward. Feels like a roller coaster just being released after riding up, yet we're in the front car, and the back car hasn't been set free. Possible plays: Day trade scalping ... Wait for us to bottom, into calls for rebound ... AAPL calls during rebound ... or given 2824 doesn't seem to have held (for now) go permabear and jump into puts! I'm probably staying cash today. If I had the time, I'd wait for the dip to bottom, then day trade scalp the upward momentum until it stalls (which is the same thing I did yesterday).
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