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[OC] An insight in the world of football kits - 454 teams that play in the most unusual colors
I would like to start with a humble warning, that this will be a longer than "usual" post. Hopefully, it will compensate with the amount of information you might deem as interesting. :) After finishing my first journey into the world of colors in football, by counting which teams play in red & black color combination, I decided to pursue my next curiosity: How many football teams in the world play in unusual colors? By this, I was thinking of teams which have a “main” color that is rarely used (grey, brown, purple, pink, etc.) or use an uncommon color combination. Because of this coronavirus madness that is going on, I was able to spend more hours for this project than I planned, so in the end I was able to go into almost every single league in the world. I checked teams from over 400 divisions, of different tiers, from all continents. Although it’s not an official list, I tried to include as many clubs as possible on it. Now, you're probably asking yourself "How do you measure how rare or how common is in football a color / combination of colors?" An exact answer is impossible to give, so I started the study using my own experience as a football supporter, finally finding an useful purpose for the thousands of hours spent on watching football games. Therefore, I used a subjective point of view and excluded the color combinations that I, personally, considered to be the most common in football teams, namely:
One-color kits: white, black, red, blue, yellow, green
Most 2-color combinations that contain white or black: white-blue, white-red, black-yellow, black-green, etc.
Other combinations: red-blue, red-yellow, blue-yellow, yellow-green.
An exception was the color orange, where I excluded only the orange+black combination, which is much more widespread than all other combinations that include orange.
The selection criteria for the teams were as follows:
The team should have their main kit in colors which are different than the ones enumerated above;
The team must have played or been associated with the colors for several seasons;
The team should be currently active (dissolved clubs were not included).
But enough introduction, let’s jump straight into the list of the most uncommon kit colors in the world of football:
CATEGORY I - Teams with 1 main color
1.Purple(includes purple+white or purple+black) - [73 clubs] Notable teams: Fiorentina, Anderlecht, Toulouse, Austria Vienna, Real Valladolid. Other teams (by conference): UEFA (photo gallery here) - CE Carroi (Andorra), SV Austria Salzburg, Austria Klagenfurt (Austria), K Beerschot VA (Belgium), Etar Veliko Tarnovo (Bulgaria), NK Dubrava (Croatia), Daventry Town FC (England), Istres (France), VfL Osnabrück, Erzgebirge Aue (Germany), Ujpest, Békéscsaba 1912, Kecskemet TE (Hungary), ACD Legnano, AS Ostia Mare, Gioiese, Casoria Calcio 1979 (Italy), St. Andrews FC (Malta), FC Argeș, ASU Politehnica Timișoara, ACS Poli Timișoara (Romania), FK Graficar (Serbia), KFC Komarno (Slovakia), NK Maribor (Slovenia), Real Jaen, Alameda de Osuna EF, CD Becerril, Atletico Guadalajara, CD Guadalajara, CD Liendo, CD Santurtzi, CD Palencia, La Baneza (Spain) (Spain), Afjet Afyonspor, Hacettepe, Orduspor (Turkey). Rest of the World (photo gallery here):
COMNEBOL - Club Villa Dalmine, Sacachispas FC, Club Atlético Quiroga (Argentina), Deportes Concepcion, San Antonio Unido (Chile) Defensor Sporting, CA Fenix (Uruguay), Metropolitanos FC (Venezuela).
CONCACAF - Orlando City, Louisville City FC, Oakland County FC (USA), Pacific FC (Canada), CD Chalatenango (El Salvador).
CAF - Mountain of Fire and Miracles FC (Nigeria), Mbeya City FC (Tanzania), AS Denguele Foot (Ivory Coast), Fovu Baham FC (Cameroon), AS Sonabel (Burkina Faso).
AFC - FC Anyang (South Korea), Kyoto Sanga, Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Fujieda MYFC (Japan), Heilongjiang Lava Spring (China), Hanoi FC (Vietnam), Nagaworld FC (Cambodia), Persita Tangerang, Persik Kediri, PSGC Ciamin (Indonesia), Al-Ain (UAE), De Abasin Sape (Afghanistan), Perth Glory (Australia).
OFC - AS Manu-Ura (Tahiti).
2.Burgundy (includes burgundy+white, or similar shades: maroon, claret, dark red, wine red) - [74 clubs] Notable teams: AC Torino, Metz, Sparta Prague, CFR Cluj. Other teams (by conference): UEFA (photo gallery here) - FK Sarajevo (Bosnia), Chelmsford City, FC Northampton Town (England), JJK Jyväskylä (Finland), Dynamo Berlin (Germany), AEL Larissa (Greece), UM Selfoss (Iceland), Galway United (Ireland), Reggina, Cittadella, Salernitana, Trapani, Livorno, US Pontedera, Arezzo, Reggio Audace FC, Fano, US Capistrello, AC Morrone, AC Locri, ASD Bovalinese, Borgosesia Calcio, Milano City FC, Union Clodiense Chioggia, USD Breno, Olympia Agnonese, ASD Travestere Calcio, AC Nardo, ASD Citta di Acireale (Italy), FC Džiugas Telšiai (Lithuania), Nardo FK (Norway), CD Fatima, Clube Oriental de Lisboa (Portugal), Rapid Bucharest, Viitorul Ianca (Romania), AC Libertas (San Marino), Heart of Midlothian FC, Stenhousemuir FC (Scotland), NK Triglav Kranj (Slovenia), Independiente de Vallecas, CD Cenicero (Spain), Hatayspor, İnegölspor, Bandirmaspor, Elazigspor (Turkey), Cardiff Metropolitan University FC (Wales). Rest of the World (photo gallery here):
COMNEBOL - Lanús (Argentina), Jacuipense, Ferroviaria, S.E.R. Caxias do Sul (Brasil), Deportivo Liberacion (Paraguay), Club Atletico Torino (Peru), Carabobo FC (Venezuela)
CONCACAF - Sacramento Republic FC (USA), Valour FC (Canada), Deportivo Saprissa (Costa Rica)
CAF - Manzini Wanderers FC (Eswatini), Generation Foot (Senegal), Moroka Swallows FC (South Africa)
AFC - Vissel Kobe, FC Ryukyu (Japan), Al Wahda (UAE), Al Markhiya (Qatar), Shahr Khodro FC (Iran), Al Nasr SC (Kuwait), PSM Makassar (Indonesia), Nejmeh SC (Lebanon)
OFC - Matavera FC (Cook Islands), FC Guadalcanal (Solomon Islands).
UEFA - HNK Sibenik (Croatia), Blackpool (England) SV TEC (Netherlands), Hapoel Rishon LeZion (Israel), Pistoiese (Italy), FK Banga Gargzdai (Lithuania), Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza, Zagłębie Lubin (Poland), CD Burgos Promesas (Spain), AFC Eskiltuna (Sweden), Alanyaspor, Adanaspor (Turkey), FC Mariupol (Ukraine).
COMNEBOL - Nova Iguaçu FC (Brazil), Cobresal, Cobreloa (Chile) Envigado FC (Colombia), Universidad César Vallejo (Peru).
CONCACAF - Houston Dynamo, Rio Grande Valley Football Club Toros (USA), Deportivo Achuapa (Guatemala), Cibao FC (Dominican Republic), Guayama FC (Puerto Rico)
CAF - RS Berkane (Morocco), FC Nouadhibou (Mauritania), Polokwane City FC (South Africa), Akwa United (Nigeria), Dire Dawa Kenema (Ethiopia), Salitas FC (Burkina Faso), Côte d'Or FC (Seychelles), Fosa Juniors FC (Madagascar)
AFC - Jeju United FC (South Korea). Shimizu S-Pulse, Omiya Ardija (Japan), Ratchaburi, Sukhothai FC, Nakhon Ratchasima, Sisaket FC, Kasetsart FC, Udon Thani FC (Thailand), FELDA United (Malaysia), SHB Đà Nẵng (Vietnam), Albirex FC Singapore, Hougang United FC (Singapore), Borneo FC (Indonesia), Sporting Clube de Goa, FC Goa, NEROCA FC (India), Saipa FC (Iran), Sanat Mes Kerman (Iran), Brothers Union FC (Bangladesh), Ajman Club (UAE), UMM Salal (Qatar), Al-Hala SC (Bahrain).
UEFA - CS Sedan Ardennes, US Lusitanos Saint Maur (France), Alba Adriatica, Union Feltre (Italy), Speranța Drochia (Moldova), SP Cailungo (San Marino), Amio SD, Laracha CF, Apurtuarte Club, CF Jacetano (Spain), Amed SK, Karşıyaka S.K., Diyarbakirspor (Turkey)
COMNEBOL - Club Agropecuario, Sportivo Atlético Club Las Parejas (Argentina), Portuguesa RJ, Pato Branco EC (Brazil), Boston River (Uruguay)
CONCACAF - AD Carmelita, AD Guanacasteca (Costa RIca), SV Robinhood (Suriname)
CAF - Stade Tunisien (Tunisia), MC Alger, JSM Bejaia (Algeria), Africa Sports d'Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Teichman City FC (Ghana), Canon Yaounde (Cameroon), Defense Force SC (Ethiopia), AS Pikine (Senegal), Masters Security FC (Malawi).
AFC - Lokomotiv Tashkent (Uzbekistan), Adamstown Rosebud FC (Australia).
UEFA - OFC Sliven 2000 (Bulgaria), Braintree Town FC, Mansfield Town FC (England), Lions Gibraltar FC, ASD Czarlins Muzane (Italy), Aalesunds FK (Norway), AE Roses (Spain)
COMNEBOL - Duque de Caxias (Brazil), Academia Puerto Cabello (Venezuela)
CONCACAF - FC Cincinnati (USA), Lobos UPNFM (Honduras)
CAF - Real Kings FC (South Africa), Sunshine Stars (Nigeria)
AFC - Albirex Niigata (Japan), Queensland Lions FC, Riverside Olympic (Australia), Wellington United (New Zealand), Thai Port FC (Thailand), Al Fayha (Saudi Arabia), Al Karamah SC (Syria), Homenetmen Beirut (Lebanon)
UEFA - Enosis Neon Paralimni FC (Cyprus), Scunthorpe United, Weymouth FC (England), Argja Bóltfelag (Feroe), Glacis United (Gibraltar), Cobh Ramblers FC, Drogheda United (Ireland), USD Vipo Trento, FC Rieti (Italy), Gzira United (Malta), Veles Moscow (Russia), Keith FC (Scotland), Pontevedra CF (Spain), AC Bellinzona (Switzerland), Colwyn Bay FC (Wales)
2.Blue + Yellow + White [1 club] -CA Bella Vista (Uruguay) 3.Blue + Yellow + Black [1 club] -Real Sport Clube (Portugal) 4.Blue + Green + White [1 club] -St. Louis FC (USA) 5.Blue + Orange + White [2 clubs]
2.Red + Yellow + Blue + White [1 club] -ASDC Verbania (Italy) 3.Red + Yellow + Blue + Black [1 club] -Coras de Nayarit (Mexico) Here they are. 454 teams from across the entire the world, from Feroe Island to Papua New Guinea or the 4th Italian league. This should be about it. However, if there are by any chance teams that I might have missed, please feel free to leave a comment and I will add them on the list. Thank you for reading and hope you enjoyed it!
Everything I would change about DS3, if I could...
Buckle in ladies, gentlmen, hollows, or whatever-the-Izalith you identify as, because this is gonna be a long one. Like seriously, WALL OF TEXT WARNING. I'm not joking, THIS IS LONG So a while back, I made my first reddit post ever by asking if people could change one thing about the game, what would they change? I got some interesting replies, but it got me thinking about the whole list of things I would have done if I had the power to. I know none of this would actually happen, but it's nice to imagine... So this might be subject to edits as I rearrange things to make it more coherent, but here we go... Connections: First off, HUUUUUUUUUGE effort to fix latency, with the ultimate goal of ending wifi warriors and phantom range, and being able to avoid straightsword spam by simply not being where the blade hits on your screen, because it matches what's on their screen. For cross region play, I'd crap the single yes/no option, and allow the player to choose which specific continents/regions they want to match, East and West NA, SA, East and West EU, Russia, Japan, China, Oceana, India, North and South Africa (not sure if there's too many souls players on that last one, but I'm sure there are), with passwords being able to bypass this, if say, I want to play with my Australian Friend who has a really good connection but no one else from the region. And lastly, and option to see Player and character names, at the same time. Because I like character names, but I need to see player names to block people who glitch when there's multiple people in the world. Disconnects: If you DC, you can't summon anyone for an hour, but you can still get invaded. A disconnect counts as a sin (more on that later). It also counts as a sin if an invader DC's, who then won't be able to invade again for an hour. 10 disconnects, and you get a 1 week ban from online play, and you get five sins. After the week is up, you can use the Way of White Circlet to get back into it, but it won't appear again for another week IRL, and you get ten sins if you DC enough to get banned again. DC ban sins can't be payed off until you have returned to online play. If you DC until you get banned again, after using a WoW circlet, you're stuck waiting for the WoWC to appear, and THEN another week after that before you can use it. Disconnects when playing offline don't count. Bugs: Fix the bow glitch. hands down. And anyone who goes to complain about it getting patched is clearly someone who uses it, so I have no sympathy for you. No more tumblebuff, Greatbow machine gun, Sacred Flame 3.0, or rolling WotGs or Vestiges. Git gud, *ssholes. Fix the FaP glitch, because fxck ladder campers, go get a life. Fix the downscale bypass, because as fun as it is to help a SL 1 dunk on the dancer with my 349, doing 1.8k damage with my great soul dregs per hit, having two password 802's at meta level ponitf, or Gwyn forbid in the early game, with full stats, is broken AF. That one glitch where you can get stuck above or fall below the middle door on the elevator by Midir. And the one where if you hit a running attack on the Bridge in the Painting, it launches you off the bridge to your death. PVP So this one is gonna get broken down a but further, but I'll start with: Twinks. So someone did the math fairly recently, and the bog standard Lapp set Twink with a prisoner's and FaP +3, etc, requires you to hit him twenty three times per hit you receive to beat his 7 maxed estus. So, to further restrict twinks, I've had the brilliant idea of ESTUS MATCHMAKING. Basically this is a twofold system. 1: You can only invade or be summoned (passwords excluded) someone who has up to two above or below the amount of estus charges you have (as a host). This is furtehr restricted to 1 above or below, when you have 8 or fewer estus. This means that a 15 estus lapp twink can only imnvade someone who has 13 or more estus flasks. And a starting player, who just got to the high wall, and who didn't do the tree jump, has 4 estus, meaning he can only get invaded by someone with 4 or 5 charges as a host, meaning the twink is limited to 2 heals max. 2: Boneshard matchmaking. You can only invade or summon someone with an 2 above/below the estus upgrade level you have, with it only being 1 above or below when you have fewer than 5 upgrades. This means a guy who just got to high wall can only be invaded by someone who has a max of +1 estus. A +8 can only invade from +6 to +10. While that can't fix everything, it VERY much limits a twink's OPness compared to a noob. Summons. If you die as a summon, you're sign will not reapear for the host for five minutes if there is no invader present at the time of your death. If there is an invader present in the world at the time of your death, the host will not be able to see your sign for ten minutes, not two. A password summon adds an extra 5 minutes to the timer if an invader is in the world at the time of the summon's death, meaning when your gank gets shut down, you're not getting any help for 15 minutes. Covenants (oh boy, here we go): So first off, leave Way of Blue as is, and any changes that happen to it will be explained in sentinel/darkmoon changes. Warriors of Sunlight: I'd reverse the rewards, giving Sacred Oath at 30, and Greater Lighting Spear at 10. Otherwise, stays the same. Moundmakers: So first off, I want to provide an incentive to actually make them a wildcard, to give you a reason to summon a random light pink sign, and not be completely sure they plan to kill you. to do this, a white soapstone summoned purple spirit does not get sent home upon the host entering the boss fog. Rather, friendly fire gets turned off, and they can get their shackle by helping you kill the boss. So, rather than expecting betrayal and not just ignoring the sign, it becomes a question of "Can I trust this person until I get to the fog." Now you can RP a "friendly" or truly crazy Moundmaker, and get rewarded for it. And you could still get the shackle and go home by killing enough phantoms before hand. A white soapstone purple also doesn't lock out further friendly summons. To make life easier for purple's both invaders and otherwise, you don't have to be the one to land the killing blow on a phantom for it to count as your kill. After all, invaders are all after different body parts, so we can share... To have the kill count as a phantom kill, you have to do some amount of damage to them (I'd say over 500, to avoid tagging them with knives and then hiding). This makes purples much more fluid, dropping into the world, attacking whoever they feel like, and jumping out with what they need once enough bodies drop. An invader can trust that a purple invader wants to kill the host, but needs to watch their back, because if the gank gets them to low HP, and the purple only needs 1 more kill... This also means that a Hodrick summoned in the Crucifixion Woods can help you fight the Crystal Sage. Blue Sentinels: Way of Blue ONLY draws in sentinels. Additionally, while BS is equipped, you can't use any invasion tools, be it red eyes, or red soapstones. Instead, your white summon sign is now blue. You can only be summoned by a host who has WoB equipped to be a blue spirit directly, in addition to the autosummon, to help guide them through the level, earning a proof of a concord kept for any invader you kill that's not a watchdog of farron (because they're just ultra-libertarians who want you off their lawn, rather than deliberately evil-doers who want to murder for fun) or Spears of the Church (they serve the gods, more on this later). You also get a concord upon the host entering a boss fight, but are then sent home (but you're presence doesn't count for boss health scaling). Since you take up a friendly slot, the host has to balance summons he can take into the boss fight vs people specifically there to guard them from other invaders. If you are online, NPC invaders count for WoB, allowing another, fairly easy way to get Concords. Boom, the concord grind would be solved in one fell stroke. Watchdogs: Joining grants 100% more poison resistance while summoned as a Watchdog, rank 1 gives 200% more, and rank 3 gives 300% more. You can invade anywhere between Halfway and and the Abyss watchers, because the poison swamp isn't hell enough already. (Excepting atop the wall where the Stray Demon is) Consequently, you can now buy infinite purple moss clumps from the handmaid from out the gate. Darkwraiths don't care who you are, and will arrgo you without a seed on (this goes for all invaders). Same for the stray demon. No hiding by them to gank noobs. The facefxckers (aka ghru leapers) will also agrro without a seed because they're cxnts. I think there's only one in Farron, but there's quite a few in the demon ruins... The other grhus are cool with you, including the giant ones. The exile NPCs, being watchdogs themselves, will not aggro a watchdog even if seeded (but while seeded they can hurt them with their swings), but will still attack regular invaders if a host pops a seed. Basiliks, while they won't agrro on you without a seed, can still curse you regardless, so be careful if you want to play with fire. Finger of Rosaria: The only guys who can get forked pale tongues from killing blues. No one else can get forked pale tongues. Unlimited rebirths. Aldrich Faithful: Gank City gets extended up to Anor Londo, because it's no longer a Darkmoon preserve as they grind silver knights. The Curse beast will not aggro on Aldriches ever, but will attack normal invaders even without a seed, and can damage or curse Aldriches when a seed is on. The same applies to the Drang Mercs. Pontiff Beasts will attack all players indiscriminately. They get human dregs upon killing a Darkmoon. Darkmoons (what we've all been waiting for): BLUE. EYE. ORB. You are no longer autosummoned by WoB. You instead use a BeO (given by Yorshka upon joining the covenant) that lets you invade sinners. Up to three Darkmoons can invade a sinner at once, even if the boss is dead. No hiding behind the fact that you killed Aldrich to avoid retribution. Here's how sin works. You kill a host, except as a Spear of the Church (because they serve the gods too), as a watchdog (again, just a "get off my lawn before I grab the shotgun" group), and non red-soapstone (because if you summon a red, you were asking for it), you have sinned. Additionally, a moundmaker who only killed phantoms doesn't get a sin. Sins have 10 levels, gained by killing more hosts. The more sins you have stacked, the higher priority you get for Darkmoons to show, and you're more likely to get multiples. If you have 1-5 sins, all the Darkmoons in the world get a proof from your death. If you have 6-10 they get a proof well kept. Your sins are removed upon a Darkmoon landing the killing blow on you. (So if a red kills ya, the Darkmoons get rewarded, but will still hunt you.) If you have sinned, you can't wear WoB, so no Darkmoon/Sentinel conflict. The sentinels are there to help the innocent, and the darkmoons to punish the guilty. You can't see Sunbro Signs either. Sinners can still grab white summons, though, provided the boss isn't dead (think Lautrec) If you don't want to die your way out of sin, you can buy your way out of sin at the shrine of Velka or the Purging monument. The cost in souls is this formula: 10,000 + ((sin level x 1,000 x SL) / 2) So if you have 2 sins at SL 30, the formula is 10,000 + ((2 x 1,000 x 30) / 2) = 40,000 souls. If you want to bribe the law, you're gonna have to PAY. If you have 10 sins at SL 125, the formula is 10,000 + ((10 x 1,000 x 125) / 2) = 635,000 souls. So the price remains high, but scales per level. Of course, to avoid BS, the Wex Dust mod on PC has to be updated so that it can only be used in a PVP capable area, to avoid invaders ignoring the police by hiding in their house staying in firelink or inside boss arenas. Yes, this all means that a Darkmoon can invade at ponitff, with other invaders. While a Darkmoon doesn't have to kill the other invaders, they can, and if the invader has more than 5 sins, or are an Aldrich (to model that the covenants are enemies), they get a concord from killing them. If the Aldrich has more than 5 sins, the Darkmoon gets a proof well kept. Of course, you can't tell how many sins someone has until they die and you check the drop, so it's a gamble on seeing if you can get an extra concord while making things harder on yourself, or if you decide to leave the sinner for later, because justice will catch up eventually, in favor of the target at hand. But you can always kill an Aldrich... Killing Yorshka, poking Fillianore, or killing a non-hollowed Siris counts as a sin. Killing Aldrich and Pontiff Sullyvhan removes all sin, once each boss. Spear of the Church (thought I'd forget about them?): Firstly, before you go further, ember at your own risk in TRC... So, the boss summoning remains the same, but I'd probably undo the nerfs that they did shortly after TRC came out. If you are a Spear, you can wait for the auto-summon. Or go hunting. The Red Soapstone is disabled while the covenant is on, but the red eye isn't, provided that you are in the Ringed City. You may choose to invade as a Spear in the city to hunt hosts going through, with up to three of you being allowed in at once. You may not invade someone else who's a Spear, and you can't be a Spear if you've sinned. However, to balance, there's some changes. There's no homing spear mass as a non-boss Spear. You CAN use the spear fragments, with recharge based on the amount of summons the host has when you arrive, and it still gives the perseverance buff when cast. (so like a 10 second recharge when there's a 4 man gank) You don't get poise and absorption outside the church, excepting the grass dew bonus. You can also use regular estus heals. If the host is a sinner, and Darkmoons are present, you can't hurt eachother (because you both serve the gods). Unlike the boss fight, you only get one spear ornament regardless of summons, upon killing the host. Judicators and Ringed Knights will not attack you, even if seeded, though if seeded they can hurt you by accident. This only applies to Spears. All bets are off for Midir, and he'll roast anyone he can, though the shadow of memories of his vows prevents him from deliberately trying to harm a Spear unless he's seeded. Dragonslayer Armor attacks everyone in aggro range, no exceptions. Ledo can't hurt Spears or Darkmoons unless seeded (and he still won't aggro), but all bets are off for Alva and Eyegon (moaning knight). If the host goes into the Spear of the Church fight, and there are Spears invading in the world, they aren't sent home. They can follow his xss into the boss fog, upon which their health and FP bars get reset to full, they gain one of each estus, but they do not get the boss buffs (can still normal chug tho). None of the Spears, boss or otherwise, Guardians, or Argo can hurt eachother, even if seeded. If you kill the boss Spear somehow, and there's still Spear invaders left, then they're sent home. Once you kill Gael, Shira, and the Ringed Knight (who will no longer respawn after the first time you kill him), the next time you come to the area, you can summon and invade with up to 4 summons (with dried finger) and up to 6 invaders (with dried finger), just to have absolute chaos in PVP as a reward for reaching the very end of the world, and being the last human standing. Of course, there's no incentive to go there otherwise, so really, if you go in there, you're signing on for a nightmare of ganks (or some REALLY good fight clubs), but I feel like it would be cool to give a bit more to do at the end, because that whole area is beautiful in a desolate, dead way, and it would be nice to have more reasons to hang out there. GNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I mean, dragon covenant (if you can call it that): Dragon form makes up for the defense loss from not having armor. Dragon Torso Stone - Changes to dragon form, only reverses upon death, but the ability causes a roar that staggers nearby opponents and does massive stamina damage to shields, and gives a perseverance buff for 6 seconds. Dragon Head Stone - Changes to dragon form, only reverses upon death, but the ability causes a roar that staggers nearby opponents and does massive stamina damage to shields, and provides a 20 percent AR boost for 6 seconds. Twinkling Dragon Torso Stone - Changes to dragon form, only reverses upon death, but the ability causes you to raise your arms for a second, and then slam them into the ground, which does massive damage to nearby opponents and knocks them onto the floor as if they got nailed by Gundyr's Halberd's Weapon Art charge, and the slam bypasses shields entirely. Provides a perseverance buff for 6 seconds, but can't be used again until the 6 seconds pass. Twinkling Dragon Head Stone - Changes to dragon form, only reverses upon death, but the ability causes you to cross your arms in front of your face for a second, and then throw them to the sides, thrusting your head forward and bellowing forth a torrent of flame. The fire consumes 10 stamina a second, and covers a 120 degree arc in front of you, and the ground that gets covered by the fire stays on fire for 2 seconds after the breath stops. The fire on the ground causes ticking damage in the same vein of chaos pyromancies. When you stop breathing fire, you get a 25 percent AR boost for 5 seconds. You can turn and walk while using it, so it's possible to fry a 360 arc around you. General enemy change in relation to players: Lastly, all red-eyed enemies from the Harpe hollows to Lycanthropes, to Lothric Knights, to that one silver knight, to Millwood Knights, etc, will aggro on any player regardless of who they are. Just to add a bit more fun. I mean, you could just round a bunch of them up and then kite them to the host... Weapon Changes. Demon Scar - as a non-physical weapon, it can't be parried, only spell-parries can work on it. Makes it a bit more interesting. Reapers - Can only fully parry a 2-handed Scythe with a medium shield, except on running or rolling attacks. Parries with other items will not open up a riposte, but will cause a stagger to the Scythe user as if they hit a wall, and a perfect parry prevents health loss. If you immediately follow up with a hit, it does counter damage. Friede's Great Scythe Weapon Art can still be parried on the attacks it can current;y be parried on. Pontiff Knight Scythe: The Weapon Art, in addition to temporarily buffing the weapon with frost, causes a frost aura around the user, that causes nearby opponents to fill 2% of their frost meter per second. Moonlight Greatsword: Weapon Art can't be parried. Add the Silver knight Spear and Sword. Quality and Dex Weapons respectively, they take twinkling to upgrade, and both get a B scaling in FTH when maxed, and have lighting damage with every hit. Sword WA it the overhead electric slam they do, with strong attack letting you do a second to follow the first (can't be parried) Spear is the electric lunge the spear guy uses, which knockdowns if it lands, and can be parried. Strong attack lets you follow up with a thrust that launches a small bolt of lightning forward, like the end of the Dragonslayer Spear's charge. For Farron Flashsword, you can parry the staff, but not the sword, if it's a staff that extends the sword from the staff, rather than encasing it. Farron Flashsword can only be spell-parried if using the immolation tinder, but it's normal swings can be parried. Immolation tinder: Weapon Art change, Weapon Art is a stance, where light attack is the sweep that it currently does, and strong is the slam followed by the fire pillar we all know and hate. I would alter the scaling of the murky longstaff, so that on a pure INT build, in excess of 40 INT, it beats out the Izalith Staff for casting Dark Sorceries. With the lore behind the Izalith Staff, I think it should be allowed to cast pyros and sorceries, because there's nothing in the game that allows that, and this is the only real candidate for it beside the immolation tinder. Dragonslayer Greataxe gets a Weapon Art change. The Weapon Art is a stance, from which light attack does the charge and swing, that golf-balls if it hits. The sprint does no damage, but staggers as you run into them, preventing them from rolling out once you catch them. They can still dodge the sprint and the swing if they aren't staggered. The strong attack is the standard nuke-slam. Dragonslayer Greatshield Weapon Art change. Weapon art is a stance that looks identical to and functions as a a block, from which a light attack is the standard shield bash, and the heavy is a sprint that ends with slamming the shield down, and pancakes opponents. The sprint does no damage, but staggers as you run into them, preventing them from rolling out once you catch them. They can still dodge the sprint and the slam if they aren't staggered. Darkmoon Bow: Remove the intelligence scaling, and add an A scaling in faith, while keeping the magic damage. It increases the damage of moonlight arrows by 10 percent. Up the scaling damage from hollow weapons, so luck builds aren't a joke. Make Frostbite auxilary, including from frozen weapon, scale with luck. Rings: Add some manner of Ring that regenerates FP at half the rate of the Sun Princess's HP regen (so 1FP/sec). Have it dropped by the Crystal Sage in the Grand Archives in addition to the crystal scroll. Dragon Scale Ring reduces back-stab damage by 50 percent, and riposte damage by 25 percent. Basically a soft counter to the hornet ring that you can slap on if any thrall hoods are nearby. Armor: You can get the Blue Lothric Knight Armor (because who hasn't wanted it at some point), and the scholar's shed skin. (It will be called Angelic Lothric Knight Armor, and its lore will reference the members of the kingdom who sided with the angels in the civil war) Gaint's armor in Anor Londo, on the second floor of the cathedral above the big door. Hide the Masks of Pinwheel in various spots in the catacombs of Carthus. THE LEGEND NEVER DIES!!! Emotes: Get Lapp's standing toast emote from when he does it. Have Ledo, being an eccentric, do the unmannered bow when he kills you, and you get it either the first time you die to him or when you kill him. You get "Well, what is it?" from the Statue of Velka in the Undead settlement the first time you interact with it. (this does count for all emotes achievement.) Quests: Hawkwood: Upon the final encounter with Hawkwood, rather than attacking you, he changes the end of his dialogue: "... and yet, the reason we're here is because of you, because you defeated the undead legion, because you inspired me to take this path. And so, I give you a choice. Hand to me what makes you dragon, and I will leave you be." This opens up a choice for the player: Relinquish the Stone, or Do Not Relinquish the Stone. Do Not resumes the usual dialogue, and you fight Hawkwood for the Twinkling Head Stone, however many times until you defeat him. Relinquish the Stone opens up another choice, on a UI menu rather than an in game choice (like when the game asks if you're sure you want to summon a purple or a red soapstone). It will say: This choice means you forfeit the Twinkling Dragon Stones to Hawkwood, and will loose the one you have, and be unable to get the other. Are you sure? No takes you back to Hawkwood's choice, and yes goes to this: "Ahh. I did not excpect you to accept my offer. Now I will take what makes you dragon for my own." Text pops up on the screen in the same manner as when the game tells you that a ring of sacrifice has been consumed, saying "Hawkwood the Deserter has taken your Dragon Stone." (and the twinkling torso stone is removed from your inventory) "Thank you, for everything." And then he teleports away, in the same manner as when you recruit NPC's to the shrine. When you next talk to Andre, he says: "That arse Hawkwood came by again. It's been a long, long time since I've seen someone on the Path of the Dragon. He left this, and said that he wasn't going to return." [Receives Hawkwood's Second Swordgrass] "Now that that's done with, let's get back to the business at hand, eh?" Upon reading the description of the swordgrass, it simply says: Another message from Hawkwood, on a Legion Swordgrass. "You helped me finish my journey, so I will resolve my debt by helping you finish yours. My sign will be there at the final task." Upon reaching the Kiln of the First Flame, opposite of where Yuria's sign is, will be Hawkwood's sign, available for the Soul of Cinder bossfight. He's summoned in Dragon Form, with the Farron Greatsword. In combat, he uses all 4 of the dragon stones at random intervals throughout the fight, and has 6 estus. Siris: When you help Siris kill Creighton and Hodrick, depending on your covenant, you can get a reward, and will be the appropriately colored phantom. As a mound-maker, you get a shackle, as a Sentinel, you get a proof of a concord kept, and as a Darkmoon, you get a Proof of Concord Well Kept. For Hodrick, since he's a "host," if you have no covenant, you get a pale tongue. Equipping Rosaria's or Aldrich's covenant emblems at any point, or offering a pale tounge/human dreg (rebirths don't count) fails Siris' quest-line. It is recommend you finish her quest-line before using those covenants, at least until you kill Hodrick. Leonhard: When you invade him to avenge Rosaria, depending on your covenant, you can get a reward, and will be the appropriately colored phantom. As a mound-maker, you get a shackle, as a Sentinel, you get a proof of a concord kept, and as a Darkmoon, you get a Proof of Concord Well Kept. If you have no covenant, or Rosaria's you get a pale tongue. An Aldrich gets human dregs. All players receive an ember upon victory. Spells: Rapport applies to the last party to cast it. If an invader rapports a seeded enemy, they go after other non-rapported enemies, or the host's party if they are nearby. If an Darkmoon, Aldrich, Watchdog, or Spear rapport something, they ignore all fellow members of the covenant until the rapport runs out. If you rapport a rapported enemy, it now serves you. Yes, this means you can have Rapport battles. Lingering Dragoncrest extends rapport duration (if it doesn't already). Chaos Storm and Fire Storm create a ring of lava/fire around the player as it casts, damaging and staggering anyone who touches it, preventing backstabs during the cast. It's not the damage that prevents backstabs, the casting of the spell itself prevents it. That said, there's nothing stopping you from simply smacking the person with your sword in the face... Divine Pillars of Disappointment get the same treatment, but it doesn't do damage. At least you can't get backstabbed out of one of the biggest let-down spells, though. New Spell: Dark Tempest: From the londor braille tome, costing 2 attunment slots and 15,000 souls. "Londor is quite familiar with the darkness within man, and this miracle of the sable church lets them unleash it in a powerful surge." The Caster is wreathed in darkness as they cast, doing slight damage to nearby foes and preventing backstabs, before thrusting their arm up as a torrent of dark fire erupts from the ground around them. New Spell: Dark Lightning Spear: Transposed from the soul of Slave Knight Gael for 10,000 souls, it's basically a sunlight spear that's blue (it looks like the lighting from Gael's boss fight) and does dark damage. "Though lighting was traditionally the domain of Gwyn and the gods, the fury within man can bend nature itself to its will, and the power of the Dark Soul let Gael birth the last, darkest miracle ever made." It has a damage that's in line with the greater lightning spear (but because people usually have poor dark resistance, the damage will act more in line to the sunlight spear) New Spell: Crystal Storm. A sorcery, the caster raises their staff, gathering crystal power, and then slams it onto the floor, causing an eruption of crystal all around them. A crystal magic aura surrounds the caster as they cast, doing slight damage and preventing backstabs. Takes two attunment slots, and comes from the Crystal Scroll, and costs 15,000 souls. Basically Chaos Storm but for Sorcerers. "Though never quite perfecting the spell, the Crystal Sage's, fascinated with study of the Pale Drake, sought control of crystal as he had. This was as close as they could get to his ability to conjure masses of crystal from the very ground to combat his foes, and it's a miracle in itself that Orbeck discerned what they couldn't and finished its creation." Soul Stream: Tracks like the Soul of Cinder's does. If you spam roll, you can still dodge it all (like with SoC), but now you can't avoid it by taking two steps to the left or right. New Spell: Dark Bead. Make it nowhere near as powerful as DS1, and basically just a dark version of farron hail, sold by Karla for 5,000 souls, and requiring 35 INT, to keep out of the hands of Twinks. "A spell from the abyss, launching a mass of darkness from its depths in front of the caster. The Darkness, short lived as it is, ever hungers for that which bears life in its bosom." New Spell: Deep Cascade. Basically a Dark Version of Crystal Hail, but with slight tracking similar to affinity, sold by Karla for 10,000 souls. "A heretical spell, crafted by Karla herself, which launches a mass of darkness bearing a likeness to man into the air, which is then drawn towards life." So, uh... I think that's actually it. Wow. This is long AF. Well, if you got through this without going hollow, I'd appreciate feedback. I personally think that a rework like this would make the game FAR better than the current state it's in.
When one looks at the Indonesian economy, one has to split the Indonesia economy into three categories, you have resource rich provinces, non-resource rich in the outer islands and provinces on Java. The dichotomy of the Indonesian economy rest with resource rich provinces and Java. As we saw during the resource boom from 2005-2014, when there is a spike natural resource prices, it increases the value of the Rupiah, and makes labor intensive exports on Java less competitive. Although, the overall impact on the economy on Java is minimal, because Java's economy isn't just dependent on labor intensive manufacturing.
SUHARTO'S REPELITA V, REPELITA VI AND EARLY REFORMASI (1987-2003) UNFINISHED BUSINESS
Previously I did a post comparing Jokowi's economic policies to that of Suharto. This post will be more comprehensive than that post, by going into the historical context for reasoning behind Jokowi's economic policies. Basically Jokowi's economic policies are aimed at recapture the direction Indonesia was heading toward from 1987-1997, while at the same time implementing policies
The Indonesian government has developed policies address the first issue like keeping low government deficits and current account deficit. For the second issue, both the SBY and Jokowi have developed social policies like Program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (SBY). Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial Kesehatan (SBY), Kartu Indonesian Pintar (Jokowi), Kartu Indonesia Sehat (Jokowi). However, what Indonesia has struggled with is moving along the same economic trajectory of the period between 1987-2002 which was growth based on manufacturing and industrialization. Much of this growth in manufacturing and industrialization was focused on Java, particularly West and East Java. In 1987, manufacturing made up 17% of the economy, it peaked at 32% in 2002, and now its 20%. In contrast, Thailand went from 24% in 1987, peaking at 31% in 2010, dropping to 26% in 2018. What are Repelitas? During the Suharto era, the Indonesian government through the MPR would draft a GGHN (Garis-garis Besar Haluan Negara). This would last for 25 years. Every five years, the MPR would produce the Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN). From the RPJMN, government departments with Bappenas as the coordinator would produce a Pelita or Repelta **(**Rencana Pembangunan Lima Tahun). The Repelita began in 1969 and Indonesia had completed a full 25 year cycle with Repelita V ending in 1994. Here is a list of the five Repelita.
Repelita I (1969–1974) bertujuan memenuhi kebutuhan dasar dan infrastruktur dengan penekanan pada bidang pertanian.
Repelita II (1974–1979) bertujuan meningkatkan pembangunan di pulau-pulau selain Jawa, Bali dan Madura, di antaranya melalui transmigrasi.
Repelita III (1979–1984) menekankan bidang industri padat karya untuk meningkatkan ekspor.
Repelita IV (1984–1989) bertujuan menciptakan lapangan kerja baru dan industri.
Repelita V (1989–1994) menekankan bidang transportasi, komunikasi dan pendidikan.
In 1994, the Indonesian government embarked on the second GBHN or Long Term Plan.
The Repelita were replaced by national medium term development plans in 1999. NOTE: The planning and project implementation under Suharto was very centralized, it was even more centralized than the Soviet Union. Almost every project had to go through Bappenas in Jakarta. Even regular road maintence would fall under the Development Budget (Anggaran Pembanguan) not Routine Budget (Anggaran Rutin). So how it worked is say the Department of Public Works (DPU) in Limbo wants to build a road, the regional office of the Department of Public Works (Kantor Wilayah), assuming the feasibility study (which usual was a separate project in itself) had been done. They would send the project proposal to Department of Public Works in Jakarta, they would modify it, than send it to Bappenas. Bappenas would determine whether the road fit within the development plan. If it did it they would send a proposal to Department of Finance. Because the system was so centralized, I heard stories where DPU project manager in the regions would send photos of completed projects in his progress report, even though construction hadn't even started. This is where some of the notions of Javanese Imperialism comes from. Almost all the DPU engineers in 1970-80s were from Java or Sumatra. They would live in their own project housing, and if it was a foreign funded project along with the foreign expats. A Javanese engineer working on a World Bank project would often have more contact with the expat staff than the locals.. If they had money they would try to send their kids for schooling on Java. In those days, even good schools in some of the outer islands were really bad. For some of the more specialized construction task they would bring in workers from Java. Why were Repelita V different from the previous Repelita? Repelita I until IV were straight forward, because it was based on oil and gas revenues powering Indonesia's development. That was the logic in 1969, and it became more pronounced when the Oil price spiked after the OPEC embargo in 1974. When the Oil price slumped in from US$30 a barrel in November 1985 to US$10 a barrel in July 1986, sent the Indonesian government scrambling. Even though Indonesia is a oil importer, the price of oil is still important because Indonesia still gets some of its revenue from oil and gas royalties. The cost of subsidies for gasoline work to counter some of the benefit from a rise in oil price. In the early 1980s, royalties from gas and oil made up 70% of the Indonesian government budget (p4) The drop in the oil price led to liberalization of the Indonesian economy in 1986. While the oil price was dropped from US$40 in 1980 to US$30 in 1985, as you can see the drop was gradual compared to sharp drop in 1985. From the period from 1983-1986, the Indonesians tried to plug the current account deficit by imposing import restrictions, trying to boast non-oil exports, by devaluing the Rupiah in 1983. What did the 1986 Liberalization entail?
Eliminated import licensing for 197 items accounted for 19 percent of import value
In the area of investment opportunity, the GOI relaxed the licence requirement and foreign investment restrictions
In the financial sector, the 1983 reforms has reduced entry barrier for the new private banks and increase competitive pressure among the financial institutions. This policy were supported by policies of abolishing credit ceilings, eliminating interest rate controls and reducing subsidy and directed credits program, by 1990
The impact of these deregulation series were very impressive. It generated a very strong response from the private sector as indicated by the boom in private investment, rapid growth in non-oil exports, employment, labor productivity and output. This deregulation series have also affected to the structural changes in the economy. The share of oil in total GDP declined from 28 percent in 1980 to only 11 percent in 1993. The share of agriculture in non-oil GDP, which was as high as 55 percent in 1965, declined from 23 in 1985 to about 18 percent in 1993. At the same period, the non-oil manufacturing sector, on the other hand, increased its share from 11 percent to 19 percent, which is larger than that of agriculture share on GDP.
As you can see from the table above, in Repelita V, the transmigration program was paused, only to resume in Repelita VI. However, Repelita VI numbers were still smaller than the levels between 1979-84.
JAVA'S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Java's competitive advantage is its large population crammed in a very small geographical location and its people. GEOGRAPHY Java has a population of roughly 150 Million crammed in 138,793 km2. The only place in East Asia and Southeast Asia that would rival Java in terms of concentration of population is the Yangtze River Delta, or what the Chinese call the Jiangnan (South Bank of the Yangtze River Delta). The Yangtze River Delta has a population of about 140 Million. From the Tang Dynasty to the late 19th century, the Yangtze River Delta to the middle of the 18th century, Yangtze River Delta was the richest region in the world. Even the Pearl River Delta, China's export hub doesn't come close to matching the population characteristic of Java. Guangdong, the province which Pearl River Delta is a part of, has a population of 110 Million spread out in an area twice the size of Java.. In addition, the Yangtze River Delta and especially the Pearl River Delta, population figures are inflated by migrant workers who's villager are located in other provinces. Guangdong resident population is 80 Million. In Southeast Asia historically, Java was the population center of the region. Until the 1800s, Java had a 30-40% of Southeast Asia population.. However, until the 1980s, it was still less populated than both the Yangtze and Pearl Delta. In1800, Java had a population of 3-4 Million compared to China's population of 300 Million. In Southeast Asia, no other region can match Java's population traits. Luzon has a population of 60 Million, Mekong Delta about the size of Central Java only has a population of 17 Million, the Red River Delta in North Vietnam has a population 23 Million over 15000 km2, Jabotabek has a population of 32 Million in an 6300 km2. Why is Java's population characteristic a competitive advantage? Paul Krugman's, currently a columnist for the New York Times, explains it in his work on the importance of location in dictating trade patterns. For this he won the Nobel Prize in 2008. The basis of his work was his paper which he wrote at MIT in 1991 titled Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. This is what he said
obvious in retrospect; but it certainly took me a while to see it. ... The only good news was that nobody else picked up that $100 bill lying on the sidewalk in the interim
He summarize it very simply in his introduction to his paper
This paper develops a simple model that shows how a country can endogenously become differentiated into an industrialized "core"and an agricultural "periphery." In order to realize scale economies while minimizing transport costs, manufacturing firms tend to locate in the region with larger demand, but the location of demand itself depends on the distribution of manufacturing. Emergence of a core-periphery pattern depends on transportation costs, economies of scale, and the share of manufacturing in national income.
It really boils down to the first two aspect, the economic of scale and transportation cost (a component of transaction cost). Also a larger population back in a small area allows for greater specialization For non-Economist, I will give you an example. Say you decide to build a factory in West Kalimantan which has a population of 5 Million spread out over a 147,000 km2. You will quickly run into problems, you have a hard time finding technicians and suppliers. Just say you find a supplier, but he is 4 hours drive away from your factory, this increases you transportation cost. Whereas if you were to put the factory in Central java, you have an easier time finding technicians, given its population of 35 million located in an area of 32,000 km2. You find 4 suppliers located only 15 minutes away. PEOPLE As I explained in my previous post, Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami, the Javanese and the Balinese are a visual people. I will give you some example, some anecdotal and other with historical references..One of Clifford Geertz later works, that was much debunked by other scholars was Negara: The Theatre State in Nineteenth-Century Bali he argues that Bali of the 19th century was not a hydraulic state (ie controlling the population through irrigation: or oriental despotic, but a Theatre state were ower served pomp, not pomp power. Geertz argued that it could be applied to all of the Mandala state of SEA, Java, Siam, Khmer and Burma. Because the state was a Theater State, the society produce a lot of artisans and craftsmen. You could make the argument that also applies the Javanese particularly in the period from Treaty of Giyanti in 1756 until the start of the Java War in 1825. The Treaty of Giyanti split the Mataram Sultanate between the Sultan of Surakarta and the Sultan of Yogyakarta. The rivalry between Jakarta and Yogyakarta starts after the Treaty of Giyanti, and the most intense expression of this rivalry was in the arts. The period from 1755-1825 is considered the high point of Javanese culture, its during this period Serat Centhini is finally completed. The one area were the Javanese are well known for is wood working and carpentry. This skill was evident since the 1300s. The large ships of the Majapahit Navy were built in Jepara ( Charting the Course of Early Modern Southeast Asia by Anthony Reid, "The Rise and Fall of Sino-Javanese Shipping). In the 19th century, Javanese carpenters were sought after. The King of Siam, Chulalongkorn, brought back Javanese carpenters and craftsmen during a trip to Java in 1896 to help build his palace The woodworking tradition continues to this day. One of the industries that Central Java, beside textiles, wants to get Chinese manufacturers to invest in, is Furniture Manufacturing. The reason is because it its barrier to entry are high compared to low skilled manufacturing like garments. Even in China, the export furniture industry is located in Dongguan, a town located in center of the Pearl River Delta. The reason for this is the best carpenters in China are Cantonese. The Cantonese are also known as skilled goldsmiths and wood carvers. Because of the trade war, BKPM and Central Java are even more aggressive in trying to get furniture manufacturer in China to move to Indonesia in particular Central Java. BKPM is explicitly targeting factories in Dongguan.
Its the reason why there are very few Cantonese people in Java, because since Java had their own carpenters, silver smiths and woodcarvers. Most of the Cnatonese people on Java are involved in the restaurant trade. another speciality. Nearly all the big Chinese banquet halls in Medan, Singapore, Surabaya, Jakata are run by Cantonese people. Bakmi Gajah Mada is owned bya Cantonese family. NOTE: The skills set that comes with furniture making and wood carving can be applied to other industries like toy manufacturing. Dongguan is also the center of China's toy industy, responsible for 50% of China's toy production. Hong Kong used to be the tou manufacturing capital of the world, but in the 1980s they moved over to Dongguan. Even more so than furniture manufacturing, toy manufacturing is an industry that is very difficult to duplicate, but once a region is able to develop a manufacturing cluster it can stay there for decades. Toy manufacturing is very involved, there are sourcing specialist, marketing people and toy designers. Indonesia is also targetting the toy industry in China, with Central Java as its main destination. What Cultures Are More Suited For Factory Work? Right now in Asia with the trade war going on, its really a contest of picking the least ugly. The labor markets in Vietnam is already very tight. Thailand has long has labor shortages, many of the factory workers are Cambodia and Burmese. The education and development levels aren't as good as Indonesians or native Thais. This is going to be controversial topic, but I feel people ignore it their a peril. Some of it will be based on anecdotal accounts, others will be more historical / academic research. It will be general overview, and I won't restrict my examples from Indonesia, or Southeast Asia, but draw from examples in the Middle East and Africa. What factory owners want is regimentation and routine. They want societies were people are easily regimented and stick to routine. A civilization influences its culture. A farmer would be more suited for factory work than nomad. Outside of this example, it becomes more complicated. A civilization with a long history of sedentary farming and a government that collects taxes from its inhabitants will develop a culture more suited for regimentation and routine required to work in a factory floor. Prior to the 19th century, the most densely populated regions of the world were Western Europe, South Asia and East Asia. For example, the reason why the Dutch were able to colonize Java was because in 1800, the population of the Netherlands was 2 Million vs 3-4 Million for Java., but the VOC could draw in human resources from the rest of Protestant, especially adjacent German states. The German states had a population of about 20 Million, roughly double the population of Southeast Asia. There is the colonial myth that people in the tropics were lazy, because of the climate. In my opinion it has more likely had to do with population density, which allowed and required rulers in densely populated areas to organize the population to extract more resource from them for infrastructure or war. They created institutions to extract resources from the population and to manage them. People ask which comes first culture or institutions, it depends. These institution subsequently had an impact on the culture. In Europe and China prior to the 1800, they had a long history were rulers taxed the populace through taking a % of their crops and corvee labor. In Indonesia, particularly outside Java, prior to colonialism, taxation systems were primitive, were not onerous, and didn't tax production preferring to raises income through taxing trade. This is from the Indonesian Directorate General of Taxation
Meskipun kemudian masyarakat mendapat imbalannya berupa jaminan keamanan dan ketertiban dari raja. Perlu dicatat bahkan pada masa itu beberapa kerajaan seperti Majapahit, Demak, Pajang, dan Mataram mengenal sistem pembebasan pajak. Terutama pajak atas kepemilikan tanah yang biasa disebut tanah perdikan. Biasanya pembebasan tersebut diatur dalam beleid yang dituangkan baik dalam prasasti ataupun dicatat dalam kitab kesusastraan. Ketika masuk era kolonialisasi oleh Belanda dan bangsa Eropa pajak mulai dikenakan.
Manufacturing and industrialization is important to develop a country's economy, because that is how the West and later on Japan and South Korea developed initially. As the World Bank economist point in this article in an Indian news site . For a country like India to bet on services is risky, because such a theory hasn't been proven yet. Further arguments are made that with automation and 3D Printing, that the demand for cheap labor will decline or manufacturing will be localized. China has automated some of its manufacturing jobs, but for the vast majority of manfacturers its too expensive and/or not suited. You get articles, where they said that Dongguan spent US$57 Million on automation last year Dongguan is a US$100 Billion economy, easily 60% of it is in manufacturing. At one point a decade ago, some people thought that India could depend on IT services, but no serious Economist would hold such a view, given how small the overall demand for IT services worldwide is US$ 1.1 Trillion, much of that isn't exported, compared to a total world GDP of 88 Trillion.
HOW WAS THE PERIOD FROM 1987-2003 DIFFERENT?
For the Javanese economy, the period between 1987-2003 can be chareacterized byt emergence of industrialization and growth of the manufacturing sector particularly in West and Eats Java. What makes this special, it was the first time since the colonial period that the Indonesian government was playing to Java's compariative advantage, its large densely packed population In late 19th century colonial Southeast Asia, Java was its technological and modern jewel. Earlier I mentioned, King Chulalongkorn visit to Java in 1896. His main purposes wasn't to buy wood carvings and batik, but to examine Java's modern administration ,agriculture and infrastructure. He also visited India, Malaya and Singapore for the same purposes. The trip in 1896 was the second of three visits, the other two being in 1871 and 1901. However, in my opinion, the 1990s' industrialization push on Java was in my opinion half hearted for three reasons.
The Indonesian government still continued with a large transmigration effort in Repelita IV between 1994-1999.
Suharto was still iintent on punish Central Java for its support of the PKI, so little effort was made to industrialize Central Java. In my opinion its like building a two leg stool, Instead of two industrial areas - West Java and East Java, with Central Java in the picture, you essentially have just one big industrial cluster - the Island of Java.
Comparative advantage in Java seems to be in lower-skilled firms and those less intensive in energy use. Low-tech, less skill-intensive, and medium-size firms reported the highest average TFP. Low capital-intensive firms, mostly those employing higher skills.
“Our manufacturing industries are mostly located on the island of Java, so we create all our logistics plans based on that location, which raises logistics and transaction costs,” Edi said during a seminar on the manufacturing industry at Bank Indonesia (BI) headquarters on Monday.
MISSING AND SEIZING OPPORTUNITIES: CHINA, INDIA AND BANGLADESH
I am going to diverge and talk about how other countries, can neglect their core economic engines, and how others can seize it. Its not unique to Indonesia. I will start with China.in 1980s. During the beginning of the reform period in 1980s, Guangdong, because it was close to Hong Kong opened up first. Shanghai really didn't open up until the early 1990s. I been to Guangzhou and Shanghai in 1987, and Guangzhou was ahead of Shangahi. Even though the Yangtze River Delta was the core economic region in China, certain factions in Communist Party at the time didn't trust Shanghai amd Shanghaiese. They top Chinese leaders like Deng Xiaoping felt it was too politically risky to open up Yangze River Delta. In contrast, Guangdong was the pheriphery, and there was less of a risk. The skyline of 1987 Shanghai was the same as it was in the 1950s. While some Indians might not agree with this assassment, I think the main reason why India hasn't developed as quickly as China, is she has neglected what was traditional been her core population and economic center - Ganges Plain and Ganges River Delta. This area includes states like West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh If you look at the population density map, these states represent the dark red portion in Northern India. The Ganges River flow through these states. These states have a combined population of 550 Million, najung up almost 50% of India's population. They are among the poorest state in India, with per capita incomes 1/3 to 1/4 that of national average of US$2000. Outside of West Bengal, the female literacy in these states on averege about 50%.. They have an acronym to describe the last four states, its BIMARU, which means sick in Hindi. The fertility rate in BIMARU states is abut 3-4 vs 2.1 for Indian average. Calcutta in West Bengal was the capital and economic center of British India until 1911, when the British moved the capital to New Delhi. While Bombay was starting to gain over Calcutta, Calcutta was still India's major commercial until the 1930-40s.. There are a lot of theories as to why Calcutta declined, Beginning of the 20th century, economic activity shifted from East to West in India, toward the Arabian Sea. If you look at FDI Indian receives the bulk of it goes to states in Western part of India Bangaldesh's per capita income used to be 50% of India's a decade ago, by next year its per capita GDP will most likely exceed India's In the past it was common for Bangladeshi too cross over illegally into India to find work, and the Indian Border Guards had a shoot to kill policy. What Bangladesh has been able to do is to use its otherwise poor geography to its advantage. Its a densely populated country with a population of 164 Million packed into an area the size of Java. Bangladeshi primary industry is garment production for export. Its the second largest garment exporter in the world after China.
Today: India are a 76% chance to win (betting odds). An India win puts them on 11 points. They are still not through in this case, if SL win 3 games (2% chance) AND England win 2 games (28% chance). In addition, India would have to lose to Bangladesh, a further 18% chance. India could still edge out NZ on NRR in that case, if NZ also lost to Australia.
An India win would mean that Pakistan would find it almost impossible to knock out India, as even two Pakistan wins and 3 subsequent Indian losses should see India ahead on NRR. In this case if Pakistan instead lost their game to Bangladesh, then Bangladesh would probably also be edged out by India on NRR. A WI loss sends them out; a win gives them 5 points with 4 to play for. They should also beat Afghanistan (82% chance), giving them 7 points. Their matchup with SL favours WI with 65% chance. Hence a WI win today has them above 50% to reach 9 points. The Bangladesh v Pakistan game gives one team 9 points already, but WI have better NRR. However there is a 57% chance for Pakistan to earn 4 points from their remaining games (Bangladesh and Afghanistan), so this would still be difficult. Bangladesh reaching 11 points (beating Pakistan and India) is only a 6% chance. Further, England would need to lose both games (22% chance). India losing all games, Pakistan beating Bangladesh and losing to Afghanistan would put India, WI and Pakistan level on 9 points. India would still be favourites but WI have a NRR chance. However this is too unlikely.... Hence even if WI win today, though they are likely to win their remaining games, they still would have just a 5% chance to qualify. Fail to win, and they are out.
Tomorrow SA vs SL. SA are out. SL's fate is very much in their hands, as if they win all 3 games well enough they will go through with 100% certainty. However in practice, 3 SL wins and 2 England wins would knock out SL because of England's vastly superior NRR.
SL are a 36% chance to win. If they lose, they are out, unless they beat WI & India. In this case they would have 10 points. However, the likely (57%) event of Pakistan beating both Bangladesh & Afghanistan should send them out, unless India lose everything. It is much less likely (6%) for Bangladesh to beat India & Pakistan, but this is another possible route for SL to lose. Sri Lanka should also be knocked on points, or NRR, by England, if England win either game
Afghanistan v Pakistan - this game is an absolute gift for the Pakistanis, as they have an 85% chance to win, and it would put them ahead of England by 1 point.
After this result, there are different possibilities:
England beat NZ & India and go through (28% chance), on 12 points to Pakistan's max 11. If India lose all their games, Pakistan and England go through in this scenario, however 4 Indian losses is just a 0.3% chance. 99.7% of the time, then, 2 England wins sends England & India through
England lose to India and NZ. England are out. (21% chance). Pakistan beating Bangladesh (67%) gives Pakistan 11 points, and Bangladesh no better than 9. There is a 2% chance of Sri Lanka getting 12 points by winning all 3 games. In this case, India have at least 11 points (in which case likely NRR), and there is a 96% chance they have 13 points or more. Hence 2% of the time in this case (England losing both) Sri Lanka qualify (clear on 12 points), 66% Pakistan qualify (on 11 points), and 32% Bangladesh qualify (by beating Pakistan, and based on their NRR).
England lose to India or NZ, but not both. 51% chance. England finish on 10 points. If Pakistan beat Bangladesh (67%), then they go through on 11 points, unless (2%) SL win all their games. Alternatively, Bangladesh beat Pakistan and India, which is a 6% chance, giving Bangladesh 11 points.
So if Pakistan beat Afghanistan, England would have just a 41% chance of qualification, and Pakistan would at that point have a 48% chance. So Pakistan would be favourites and England are staring down the barrel
Saturday Aus vs NZ - essentially meaningless game
Saturday Eng v India - India are 54-46 to win. In the more-likely-than not event England lose, their chance of qualifying will depend on winning vs NZ (60%) AND the other teams not overhauling them. Their odds of qualifying following a defeat here could be as low as 15%.
TL;DR, England are fucked if they lose to India, while Pakistan should be riding high after beating Afghanistan.
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