FOBT Roulette Cheats - Gambling Joe

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
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My CSGO gambling addiction story. (Lost +50 000 dollars in a span of 5 years, got kicked out of my home and more)

I'm posting this story so people won't hopefully make same mistakes i did. I'm telling my story how i lost +$50 000 in a span of 5 years to CSGO gambling casinos and how in the progress i ruined myself completely. This post will be long but keep in mind that it keeps 5 years of my life inside of it.
Before we go any further in this post, i want to dress one thing up: CSGO is a videogame and the game has different "paintings" for all the guns in the game you can buy. Every skin has some form of value tied on it and you can deposit this skins to csgo gambling sites to play on there. The skin prices can vary from + 0.01 up to +$10000 and more. The casinos are pretty much same as normal digital casinos but the deposit/withdraw method is just different.
Wanted to clear this out of the way so people won't be confused in case you have never heard about CSGO gambling. Now let's get in to the story.
After i turned 18, i started playing CSGO here and there. One day one of my friend hopped online to play with me and he was really hyped since he had just won +$500 in skins from one of the csgo gambling sites. After we played some time i asked him more about the site where he gambled and at night, i logged in. Deposited $10 skin and started to test out the site. Somehow with "beginners luck" i managed to get up to $200 playing roulette and got some skins to myself. I felt like i was in top of the world after winning first time ever on gambling in general.
After my first win I started to visit the same site here and there trying to repeat actions of my first session: deposit 5 -10 dollar items and try to get out something more expensive. At that point the gambling was just all for fun like it's supposed to be. I really didn't care if i lost 10 dollar item if i had good time in the session. I played this way for around a year until i just for some stupid reason decided to start upping a bit my deposits so i could do a bit bigger bets to bring more excitement to the gambling sessions.
With that being said, my casual deposits started to be around 25 dollars from that point every time i decided to go try my luck. I started doing bigger bets and sometimes i won but more often i just lost my deposits in a matter of minutes. After loosing, i just continued to watch other people betting on roulette thinking what i would have bet on now if i still had balance left. It sounds stupid i know, but sometimes it is just fun to watch other people betting.
As the time went on, i found myself gambling more and more often than what i was used to in the past. It all started trying my luck out once in a week, but now it was a daily thing. I started usually my mornings by first depositing to the gambling site before even making a coffee or anything just so i could go straight in action right after my morning coffee/cigarette. I started to spend all my time in gambling sites instead of doing anything else. If i won big, i withdrew and just continued to chat with other bettors and watch other people betting and if i lost my money, i just did the same thing. I guess the reason was because i had nothing else to do. At the time i was still in school, but after that i usually just went back home to wait next day to arrive. All my IRL friends had moved on from videogames and i really didn't have anyone to hang out with after school since i had to move other town to study. I guess the loneliness/boredom was a big factor why i started doing this.
At one night i was drunk and got an idea to try out my luck once again since the gambling site i mainly used had opened straight card deposits. This time i decided to do a "big" deposit so i could have some fun while i was drinking. I deposited 100 dollars and tought this deposit would last long.
I lost it instantly by accidentally pressing "max" button instead of "2x" button that would have put my 1 dollar bet to 2 dollars for that round. 100 dollars on green and "pufff" it was gone. The session lasted like 15 seconds. I was furious about it so i did first time the worst thing you can do which is the good old RE-Deposit.
I re-deposited 200 dollars this time thinking that i could maybe get my 100 dollars back that i accidentally maxed on green. As you may guess, it really wasn't my night and i just somehow lost all the sense of the amounts i was betting. Also since i had redeposited once, it wasn't a problem anymore to do it agen. I kept rage betting trough out the night, until my bank card started to decline the transactions. I didn't think about this too much, i just tought there was some problems in the bank's end and went to sleep.
At the morning i woke up on hangover and then i remembered things getting wild last night. I tought i lost maybe like 400-600 dollars but well things was a bit worse.
I went to check my bank account and i had lost 2500 dollars in earlier night. Keep in mind, i was used to deposit MAX 25 dollars in a day before that. First time ever i felt like i just wanted to throw up and i felt embarrassed for depositing that much. Some people would call it "gamblers guilt".
I decided to try take a break from gambling but i found that it was actually lot harder to do than what i thought since i had gotten used to spend all my time on gambling sites betting or watching other people bet. My break lasted 3 days until i was back at betting. This time things were different.
Before my massive loss i never re-deposited if i lost my money. I always tought it would just not be worth it. My allowance had been 25 dollars for a day really long time but now that line started to fade since i had already "broke that rule". Now i kept putting 25 dollar deposits in and if i lost my money, i would just re-deposit so i can keep gambling. 25 dollars may not be much, but when you deposit that amount x15 times in a day in the spirit of "re-deposit" it really starts to burn a hole in your pocket. At some point i got tired of redepositing again and again so i started to deposit more at once. This is where the tilt betting and "chasing your losses" became kinda new normal if the session was really bad. I lost sense value of money every time i logged in to casino try my luck.
The way i funded my gambling addiction was "savings" account. Just before i moved to new town to study, one of my relative family members i never really got to know passed away and portion of her fortune was given to me, which was ruffly around 35000 dollars. Before i gambled, i never really used this money to anything. It just was there in case if "everything else fails". This money was supposed to be my lifeline trough out the studying time (3 years) so i could focus mainly on school without any worries about income. To top that off, my government actually paid my rent since i was studying, so that 35k pretty much just was there and also getting the education here is free so there were no payments towards it. As you may already guess, i used that account only to feed my gambling habits and that way i was able to deposit hefty amounts if i decided to go that route.
Since i had pretty much no limits anymore, things started to get heated as the time went on. This was last year in the school so i could get my degree and shit really hit the fan. The amounts i started to gamble was way out of my understanding. Usually that normal 50-100 dollar depo would be at the end of the night around +500 or more dollars since i kept redepositing all the time if i was out of balance. I kept doing this every day with some wins and some losses until common thing called losing streak hit me big time. I started losing more and more every single day with no moments on getting profit. Everyday there was fuck ton of redeposits with no withdraws back. I didn't keep any count anymore and as you may guess, the savings account was just fading away faster and faster every single day until short after my graduation the day finally came: i was broke.
After i checked all my bank statements, the truth was revealed: In the span of 3 years, i was negative profit of around 30 000 dollars. Not to even mention that on my first year of school i only did max 10 dollar deposits so most of that had been racked up in 2 years. 5000 from 35000 was used to car repairs and other necessary bills, rest was gambled away.
After i went fully broke, my government started to give me assistance payments witch was around 1100 dollars in a month. This money was supposed to go on rent and other bills, but as you may guess i started using this money to gamble. After i lost heavy portion of the money, i was usually able to just pay a fraction of bills away that i had on my table for each month. This caused me to later on completely lose my credit score. I also remember getting my electricity get taken off 4-5 times since i wasnt able to pay the bill. Also after all i lost my apartment since i wasn't able to pay my rent because my addiction had taken over really bad and i gambled away everything i got. I was forced to move out and i moved in to my family member house. Luckily he had been asking me for years to be his "roommate" so i didn't have to reveal to him that i actually lost my home.
Shortly after moving to my family member, i got my first job and i tought this would be the moment where i will focus on fixing my life up: pay all my debts away and get my credit score back, Save some money and start again. It was nice plan but it didn't really go well. The more i got from the job, the more i deposited away and i was back to my old habits, even after losing my home +30 000 in 2years.
I remember one specific moment from the time i was at my old job: i got +1200 dollars from past 2 weeks of working at 3:00am in to my bank account. When i left my house at 7:30am to go the job, i didn't have enough money to put gas in my tank ( 5 dollars) so i had to walk 6 miles in a full blown rain to my job. i paid rent 400 dollars, rest was gambled away before my shift for the "salary day " even started. It really made me wonder while i was walking there that why im doing this. Im literally throwing everything i get handed over away and it really was the moment where i realised i have to look in the mirror. It's not normal to blow your whole salary away at the same morning you get it before you even head out to work.
After that moment, i started trying to take breaks from gambling more ofter. There were times where i went 5-7 days without it and then i came back to do that all over again but my losses were now way smaller than what they used to be. I lost only 200-400 dollars each month with some profit months, witch was huge milestone to me. Now i actually had usually some money left on my account until new salary day arrived. Ofcourse losing that much in a month is still alot but to compare it to my old habits, i take it more than happily.
With all this being said, you may now think how im doing right now and how do i feel after losing my home | credit score and + 50 000dollars in 5 years?
If im being fully honest, i have mixed feelings about it. Ofcourse it's sad to think how i much i fucked up but at the same time i'm kind of happy that this all happened. The reason why im happy is because i can take this all as a lesson. I maybe lost everything i had and ruined myself in the process but at the same time, im only 24 years old now. I can still build it all back and one day i can look back in this era and laugh about how fucking stupid i was when i was younger.
On the other hand, the thing im most sad about is when i meet my friends and see how good they are doing. Don't get me wrong, im more than happy to see my friends doing good but it really makes you guestion how i would i be doing now if i never entered to csgo gambling casino? Almost all my friends have good jobs, own homes they are paying mortage for so they can one day own it, nice cars and beatiful girlfriends/ wives and some people even have kids and familys. And when i watch back to past 5 years, i literally had all that right from the start in my hands and i just threw it all away. When they were building it all for themselfs, i was in the meantime watching my PC screen and throwing it all away. Kinda ironic when you think about.
Also what i hate is the way how i treated some people when i was at worst of my gambling era. I lost some friends in the process since i never showed up anywhere when they asked me to join them to do something in weekends and also i lost a girl i really cared about since i was too busy on placing bets on digital casino. To sum it all up, i really dont care about the money i lost, I mostly hate how i chanced as a person and how i didn't really give a fuck about anyone around me when i was too focused on nonstop betting. One day i will have enough guts to ask to meet up with this girl and explain why i was the way i was when we had our thing going on. Gambling addiction is really hard thing to explain to someone who has never went it trough themselfs/ seen someone close to them to go trough with it, but i'll try my best to reveal him everything that i have told here now publically. She may just tell me to fuck off but atleast i can be happy when i know that finally she knows the truth of everything i was hiding when we had our thing going on.
Other than that im doing kind of fine. I moved out from my family member house to own home awhile ago. I fucked up yesterday again, i gambled 250 dollars away in a span of couple hours but i left it on there. Instead of putting more money in, i decided that this week i will call my bank provider and take away online payments in general from my bank card. This way i can still use the card in stores and so on but i can't pay anything online. If i have any payments i have to get done via online, ill just go to ATM and take the amount in cash, then give it to my older brother and he will pay it from his account.
I know this may sound really extreme way to solve all this, but this way im literally banning myself from every fucking digital casino there is. It is clear to me that im a problem gambler and i really can't control myself if i face a losing streak. It just too hard to accept it and walk away and ill keep going until i hit rock bottom witch really isn't good escpecially since i lost my job due to COVID and i still have around 10 000 dollars in debts gathered to myself when i was too busy gambling everything i had away. One day im able to pay it all back and get my credit score back but right now, i just need to accept how things are going and move with what i have witch really isn't much.
With all this being said, i really hope this story of life from past 5 years can make some kind of impact to you. If you find yourself casually betting more away than what you first tought you would play/ betting more than you can REALLY afford, please seek some help from friends, family members around you. Don't ruin everything you have same way as i did because let me fucking tell you, it really isn't worth it.
Thanks for reading.
submitted by AddictionRuinedMe to GamblingAddiction [link] [comments]

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.

Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.

Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.

Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.

Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.

Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.

6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.

5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.

4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.

3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.

Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.

2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.

But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1

Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.

The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.

But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato

1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.

2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.

And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.

Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by enderpiet to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Jagex appears before UK Parliament inquiry

Today, Neil McClarty (VP, Growth and Product Services) and Kelvin Plomer (Director of Player Experience) from Jagex appeared before Members of Parliament (MPs) of the UK Parliament's Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee. This is a part of the work our UK lawmakers do that looks in to certain key issues.
Jagex were appearing to discuss immersive and addictive technologies. MTX, as a form of gambling, has caught the attention of the select committee who are collecting evidence as part of an investigation into the practice. Jagex are one of the studios attending, which is good because some studios simply ignore the invitation and refuse to speak.
There are some interesting issues that came out as part of the session, detailed below. These are my rough notes of the proceeding and are not chronological of the discussion.
A full replay of the proceeding is available on the parliament live website (maybe just under 2h total). It is probably not as good as the Q&A transcripts!
Overall, I am disappointed in Jagex's showing. Addiction to gaming, specifically runescape, was completely denied by Jagex. The MTX amounts people can spend (£5k/month cap) are ridiculous and do not offer any protection to those who may be gambling/MTX addicts.
Jagex could not provide evidence of what it is doing to proactively address serious issues of addiction and mental health. In fairness, the collaboration with charities on mental health is commendable.
More needs to be done Jagex. Time to up your game.
________________________________________________
Tl;dr
_____________________________________________________
Inquiry into immersive and addictive technologies
Jagex's answers are in plain text.
Questions/comments from the committee are in italics.
General
Regular players - 100,000s+ playing every day.
Average play time is 2.5h a day for those who play everyday.
Average player has played for 8 years.
Average age is 22. 2% are under age of 18.
Jagex reaches out to players who have not played in a long time (limited by GDPR for email).
What is heavy usage, do players play for more than that?
Yes. Typically players go through phases of doing more or less. Quests given as an example for long term play.
Game that 'never ends' - we have heard of people playing all night, are you aware of people playing 10-12h in a single session?
Extremely rare, infrequent and for a small section of community and usually around particular content (i.e. new releases). Large amount of tasks benefit short play time - dailies - so long play time is not rewarded in the same way as longer play.
MTX (referred to as macro transactions once scale of Jagex's cap emerged)
How much do regular users spend on MTX, annually?
Some hesitation to discuss 'business model' first.
200,000h of gameplay content in entirety of RS. 10,000s in F2P.
First thing people will pay for is members. £7/month ($11!). £84 a year.
Annual spend on MTX: 'no more than £50-£60 across all of our users'.
For regular users, you know the figures, how much do they spend?
£45 a year average of regular users of the 2.5h a day people.
1/3 revenue is from MTX. 2/3 from subscription.
The £45/year was an average across all players. What is the average spend for paying players only?
No details to hand and not something we would disclose.
[Challenged on that answer] Do you have that information?
Yes but not comfortable sharing. Not public domain and is commercially sensitive.
[Damian Collins MP] Average daily user is £45/year MTX spend. That is 'commercially sensitive' too but you shared anyway. Why are you not able to answer the previous question?
There is a large difference between users and that particular number varies depending on the player.
Is there a cap on MTX spending?
Players can spend upto £5k per month.
One instance of a player hitting the cap in last 12 months. Cap is only in place for fraud checks.
How do you spend £5k a month in your game?
Cosmetics costing £4-£30 [N.B does not mention lamps].
What determines price difference?
Aesthetics/animation. E.g. a cape.
Artists and designers work on this. How do you establish whether an outfit is more expensive of cheaper?
Amount of effort going into the creation (e.g. artists and animations).
What is the most expensive item purchasable?
Pack of keys that allow you to open chests. How much? £74.
How many players spend £1k/month? Is it a lot?
No numbers to hand. Not a lot.
Why is £5k the limit?
In-house fraud team. Those threshold largely in place for fraud.
Why is the motivation for the limit only fraud?
Ultimately - we recognise most audience is of adult age and we believe for the extensive retained audience that has been playing for so long, the current thresholds are sufficient and provide freedom for people to do what they want. Accounts are secure and safe. People have freedom for how long, and how much they want to play.
You know the average spend per paying user. Do designers have a monetisation role to make people invest more funds?
Team of 80 on RS full-time, mix of artists and devs. Products broken up so small satellite teams that work on individual pieces of content.
Limits on spending, is this standard across the industry?
Not comfortable commenting on that. Market is so diverse and many ways to monetise audiences and foolish to say what we do works for everyone.
Paul Farrelly MP - questions on £17k debt from anonymous evidence received by committee
A player - the son - racked up debts of £17k from RS. Included a bank statement of £247.95 spent in one day.
The father wrote the committee about how he had to bailout his son with his life savings.
A copy of reply from Jagex customer services which is very much a reply that says 'we cant engage with you because of data protection unless your son comes to us, these are the tools for him to do things if he wishes to.'
What happens in the Company from Jagex's side in this situation, the father has a point. What does Jagex do?
Won't comment on individual case. Fundamentally, privacy policy and GDPR regulations state the owner of the account has to make contact with Jagex. There are limits that can be set on purchases on computemobile phone, we do provide guidelines to parents and on a case-by-case basis we will decide on refunds/goodwill to players. Specifically, individuals do need to know what they can do and what their responsibilities are.
Challenged on that point Jagex's approach is clearly for the son to sort himself out, "its not Jagex's fault"
I think Jagex provide the means by which an individual can request help and we can do do that.
Are there any facilities, for people to block or limit themselves, that gambling companies implement that Jagex could learn from? As a best practise?
Jagex is not a gambling company. Service provided are only within the game and cannot be cashed out.
That wasn't the question.
Jagex has not looked at gambling limits or best practice. Gambling is not our business.
Are you obviously trying to extract money from your players?
Large purpose is making content to justify sub price (£7). Majority of time is spent providing content. Some teams do work on the additional services. Very much see ourselves as sub game.
You say categorically that you are not a gambling company, but people are clearly gambling away their money. Parliament has brought down Fixed odds betting (N.B UK roulette machines allowing £100/spin that dominate(d) the gambling industry profits). Do you fall into that category?
No - items people are purchasing are exclusive to the game.
Addiction / playtime / mental health
What feedback / complaints from players and others around MTX, how is it dealt with?
25 complaints where players reference addiction.
If a player got into debt, Jagex is bound by GDPR and cannot discuss a user with a 3rd party (i.e. a parent) who might intervene. Jagex would need to verify the ID of someone making contact. Cannot speak with 3rd party without breaching GDPPrivacy.
Approach to corporate social responsibility - Jagex has invested in mental health with staff and charities. Events in-game about awareness (e.g. from local MIND organisation). When individuals are struggling, we have been pro-active. In addition, very pro-actively, by way of chat moderation and screening. Looking for references to self harm/suicide. Players can report and it is manually reviewed by members of staff. All chat reviewed 24/7 for all triggers. Escalated to law enforcement if necessary.
Jagex was challenged on mental health. There is a huge potential scale of users with problems.
Is there a limit on gameplay time? Can it be bypassed?
6h automatic log for all players. Can log back in immediately if a player wants to.
How many players play 6h and get cut off?
Do not have figures to hand but happy to share after.
Why 6 hours? What harm is it intended to prevent?
Used to be auto log outs on 4h. Community didn't like forced log outs. In response, this was relaxed to 6h.
Why force log out at all?
Players should take a break.
You are suggesting if players extend their presence in your game, that there is a potential downside to long periods online that you are worried about?
Not limited to screens of games, even reading a book for 6h people should take a break.
Not sure bookstores have that concern. The committee has heard evidence about long periods of time spent and a link to mental health consequences. Is that why there is a time limit on your game? Do you accept there is evidence of mental health consequences from addiction, or is it entirely coincidental you have time limits and links to mental health charities.
Time limits have been in place for several years. We acknowledge anything done for long period of time needs a break, some users will always over-engage, our responsibility is to make sure people take breaks and have a sensible lifestyle.
Do you believe 6h to be about maximum reasonable time someone should spend uninterrupted on game?
We are comfortable with that limit. RS is a passive game, large amount of time you can do other stuff alongside passively. Can watch Netflix alongside as an example.
Do you prompt players to come back or make a purchase if they haven't done so in a while?
Focus is on getting people playing again, giving relevant content for them to engage in. Provide different options. Might make an offer for them to engage to make a payment. Would not be used to make someone engage with something they haven't done in the past.
Focus is on getting people playing again, giving relevant content for them to engage in. Provide different options. Might make an offer for them to engage to make a payment. Would not be used to make someone engage with something they haven't done in the past.
Are people treated differently depending on how much they spend? If someone has sent on MTX/members would there be an offer?
Not across the board, but there are situations where it is done. E.g. 50% discount on membership or MTX purchase.
You said game data is used to make offers to get players to engage with certain content. What triggers you to contact a player in this way? How long off game before you directly contact them with an offer?
Isn't a hard and fast rule. large amount dependent on if they have given permission for us to contact them. 1-2 months after not playing we might reach out to them. No point contacting a player about content they cant engage with.
If i play for 6h. Stop playing for 1h. is it possible I receive email from you in an hour's time with an offer to play again?
Campaigns are manual. It is possible but unlikely.
Are devs encouraged to monetise the game?
No but if players choose to, they can engage with content and go further they can buy items.
Do you think games can be addictive?
Any entertainment media can have an immersive side and it is naive to think otherwise.
Is Runescape addictive?
No.
Not at all?
Very cognisant of addiction and we address. 0.05% referenced the word 'addiction' in correspondence to Jagex.
Do you reject that RS is addictive?
Neil - I reject that.
Kelvin - we are not psychologists. Experts in a successful community focused game. Tribal alignment like a football or rugby club. People are passionate about the game.
Not psychologist but you have to accept you have a responsibility - people are running up colossal debts - you cant be a passive bystander can you?
I don't think we are. We do a tremendous amount to try and educate and provide info to playerbase. 2x in game events focused around mental health. 100% funds to go to mental health charities. 3 charity partners have npcs in game.
Is the industry acting quickly enough to address addictive nature of gaming or are you denying problem exists?
We have a F2P game. People talk with their feet. If players are not happy they will not play.
Not if they are addicted? People drinking don't particularly like it but they still drink. Industry doesn't recognise the problem maybe? Do you think you are doing enough to identify the difference between a loyal customer and someone who is addicted to the product?
There is evidence there are players addicted to games, and on other hand evidence that this is not the case. Jagex are in the middle and are not the experts. We do a lot to engage with the playerbase and do the corporate responsible things as a business.
If you design a product you have to look at safety. What do you to look at the risk your product creates?
Focus is around chat moderation. Pro-actively looking for inappropriate conversations. There is a risk and there are situations where we escalate to police.
Focus is on safeguarding?
One element. Other is on data protection of user data.
You mentioned you are not psychologists, would you be willing to share information with academics to carry out empirical research into this issue?
Wholeheartedly, yes. Cooperation is a responsibility.
We have a sense listening to your evidence that everything you do is reactive, and not pro-active. Would be helpful if there was clear scientific research for new products to take risk element more broadly into account?
Yes.
How much can you identify about a player from what you collect about them?
Large amount of data is game data - progress, content engaged in, payment for MTX. Is not shared/sold to 3rd parties. When reviewed, it is on aggregated basis not individually.
Does it not concern you that as a business you feel the need to give out mental health advice?
Event business needs to do that. Mental health is a growing problem.
You think you are not part of the problem?
No - 1m players and they are representative of society. Whole range of positives and negatives, including minorities with problems. There are positive aspects to gameplay - social skills, cognitive behaviour, how economies work, setting goals and achieving them - valuable life lessons.
We regularly survey players re. why they play. Top answer is - a way to relax / escape.
6h limit on gameplay. What is the longest streak of back-to-back play?
Don't have figures to hand but happy to share with committee afterwards.
In terms of addiction, it is about time spent playing surely?
Can't comment on that - not an expert. Genre of game is there to be intentionally immersive - it is a RPG. You can *AFK*. Game is like radio noise in background.
Maybe you should be experts - this is what you do as a game designer. Why in your capacity you don't feel you need to be experts in this?
We are experts in areas and we do a lot to make sure we are aware of consequences.
Individuals have submitted evidence that long periods of time online have a negative mental health impact. Is the value of your company based on numbers of participants or how long they spend? Financial interest for players to play for as long as possible, for as many years as possible. Does that conflict with your comments that you made about caring about well being of players. On one hand you wanting to make a profit, conflicts with responsibility of negative health consequences of the longevity that produces the profit.
Aware of consequences. Debatable that there is the addiction there. If individuals do have problems, we are supporting players.
It requires them to come to you, rather than a concerned relative because of GDPR, you can't react until a player contacts you. You don't really know how many players are in that slot do you?
No. That is fair.
Game data / player bans etc.
Job of data team is analyse behaviour. Commercial value is for you to make most of data to improve game (as you aren't selling it)?
Yes - game retention / engagement is key metric. No-one will pay for something they do not want to engage with.
Do you work with academics looking into analysing meta data on game (psychology/addiction/social gameplay). If Cambridge psychometric centre reached out, would you engage? Have you shared data before on aggregated basis?
Not pro-actively, we have done on individual cases at times. GDPR responsibilities might get in the way. Even pre-GDPR we wouldn't have shared individual dated. Will write to committee to explain if any aggregated data has been shared before.
Kelvin - Data used for detection of cheat programs too.
Abusive conduct towards others in game. Do you have ability to pro-actively pick up on bad behaviour or do you rely on others reporting to you? Do you deal with complaints within 24 hours? Are players blocked?
There are trigger popups for bad behaviour. 96% of time complaints are dealt within 48h. There are sanctions for players.
How many bans issued?
No figures off top of head. Daily offences are ~23,000. Vast majority is related to cheating (99%). [probably botting]
Language 0.26%
Scamming 0.13%
Community safety - <200 cases/year are escalated to law enforcement
Jagex will write to committee to state how many have been banned as a result of abusive behaviour.
submitted by Btw-Tom to 2007scape [link] [comments]

Today Ends My Week of Degenerate Gambling At Sea

Hey folks!
Today I returned to the US after a week aboard the Oasis of the Seas gambling at the single zero roulette table. If you're interested, you can read the original story here where I kept day by day notes in the comments about my winnings and observations. Finished ~$2500 ahead Martingaling for a week.
Cruise Background
I wanted to vacation in Vegas this fall, my wife wanted to cruise again, so I spent a few months searching cruise lines, looking for a single zero roulette table with at least an 8-bet min/max spread. As it turns out, there are thirteen cruise ships in the world that fit that profile (that I discovered), and after checking all of them against NovembeDecember departure dates from CONUS, I downselected to the Oasis of the Seas from Royal Caribbean for a 7-Day Caribbean cruise, booked it, and thus it was so!
The Game
For the duration of this cruise, I played single zero roulette and nothing else. The casino on board the Oasis of the Seas has four roulette tables; two American roulette tables on the smoking side, and one each American/European on the non-smoking side. I use the word "European" loosely because while it was single-zero, it had no European rules on it. All four tables were $5 - $100 on the inside, and $5 - $1000 on the outside. I attempted to make arrangements before the cruise as well as with the casino manager during the cruise to raise the limits for my gambling to no avail since I didn't have an established play history with Club Royale. I also requested La Partage be put into effect during my session play without luck - but that was a long shot anyway; the only single zero table I know of in the US with a minimum bet lower than $25 is the $10 - $3000 La Partage table at the Soaring Eagle in Michigan (sorry guys, terminal games don't count!)
Single zero roulette tables have a 2.7% house edge; down from the scandalous 5.4% house edge of American roulette (let alone the scammy triple zero crap that Carnival Cruise lines and the Venetian in Vegas are doing); La Partage lowers it to a magnificent 1.35%, but alas - I was destined to go without.
My Bets
Most of you are probably familiar with a martingale) series bet. For anyone else; on a $5 - $1000 table, $2,000 can bankroll a 8-bet sequence where I double my bet each time I lose, restarting my bet sequence each win. Due to chip denominations, my martingale progression is $5, $10, $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, $1000, which I find more reasonable than 5/10/20/40/80/160/320/640 due to the typical chip denominations 1/5/25/100/500/1000. In a tip of my hat to superstition, my increases from $10 to $25, $100 to $250, and $1000 to $2500 where applicable are my way of "punishing" the casino for making me leave the comfort zone of the outside minimum bet. Mock me if you must; its my personal flair - if my bets grow that high I "deserve" to win more than my base bet for the stress of having to bankroll the roll.
The chances of heads or tails on a coin flip are 50% for either outcome. On a single-zero table without La Partage, the equivalent bets - black/red, even/odd, 1-18/19-36 is ~48.6%, with the other 2.7% representing the green zero, or house edge - creating a theoretical loss probability of 2.7% of your bet per bet over time.
While the probability of an individual spin being black or red in my case is ~48.6%, the martingale betting progression ties your bets into a session, such that on the table I'm playing on, as long as I don't guess wrong 8 times in a row, I always win. On the off-chance that any newbs are reading this, this is NOT a "strategy" or "guaranteed way to make money." Martingale betting is a low risk, low reward means of using a large sum of money to win a little sum of money - pretty much the opposite of what people go into casinos to do. In statistical terms, the chances of me guessing wrong 8 times in a row in an 8 spin series is three tenths of one percent...but no one sits down for 8 spins and leaves - so my gambling is that when the house spins my losing sequence...I'm not there. =D Such is gambling.
Goals!
I've learned over the years that if I don't sit at a table with a fixed goal of when to leave, I will get bored and start making side bets (other even money bets or thirds) - more ways to win also mean more ways to lose, and when I am gambling, I am heavily socializing and drinking; I can't keep track of all of it at the same time. My goal is thus to always leave with 120% of my bankroll.
This trip was a bit confusing for me because I couldn't reconcile what my bankroll was. Not knowing whether the table limit would be fixed to $1000, or be able to be raised to $10,000 I brought $5,000 in cash with another $35,000 available as credit - I'd wrongly assumed the casino would at least double the table min/max to $10-$2000, and had been hoping they would leave the minimum and double the maximum, adding a one-bet buffer to my 8-spin series. With a $1,000 bet maximum, I stopped bringing more than $2,000 to the casino. If my bankroll is $2,000, I aim to leave with $2400. If my bankroll is $5,000, I aim to leave with $6,000. With $10,000, I aim to leave with $12,000.
I initially hoped to turn $2,000 into $2,400, but after doing that the first night gambling and the prospect of the rest of the cruise being bereft of gambling, I decided that since I'd brought $5,000 to gamble with, even if I could only play with $2,000 of it, my 120% goal meant I wanted $1,000 in winnings or bust.
On day two when I realized how stingy Club Royale was, and that I'd be buying my own drinks, I shelled out $360 for the liquor package, and adjusted my winning threshold to also cover the liquor package. Then there was a $300 spa treatment. Then an $1800 studio photography session since my wife wanted some nice pictures - something we've not done in a decade.
With these confusing inputs leaving me unsure of how to decide if I was up or down, it came down to the fact that while the casino was generally open 8-12 hours a day, the lone roulette table with the single zero didn't open until 8:00 PM - about when the cruise shows started. I did some begging and pleading to have it opened earlier every day to mixed success - a bit on the first day and on the last day, with nothing in the middle. They really wanted people on the American tables - which I had to resist, since for much of the cruise, it was American roulette or nothing. I contented myself during those periods with drinking, socializing with other gamblers, watching, drinking, and trying to find people who didn't have the booze package so I could buy them drinks.
Fun Facts
Anyway; it was a blast - but I'll probably go to Vegas for my next vacation instead of cruising. I want to gamble during the day, and go to shows in the evening, not wander around during the day, then have to decide whether I want to gamble or watch shows in the evening.
edit And here's a picture of me at my remote office aboard the cruise ship in case anyone was wondering what your mean old /gambling moderator ShelixAnakasian looks like.
submitted by ShelixAnakasian to gambling [link] [comments]

A week of degenerate gambling on the Oasis of the Seas comes to a close!

Hey folks!
Today I returned to the US after a week aboard the Oasis of the Seas gambling at the single zero roulette table. If you're interested, you can read the original story here where I kept day by day notes in the comments about my winnings and observations. Finished ~$2500 ahead Martingaling for a week.
I called out 14 crew members that I thought were exceptional; 11 of them in the casino - the crew were amazing everywhere. The ship itself is probably due a refit. Elevator buttons broken, chairs broken, everything looking a little run down and scuffed. I won't dig into the ports because everyone in here probably knows their way around the Caribbean by now. =D
Cruise Background
I wanted to vacation in Vegas this fall, my wife wanted to cruise again, so I spent a few months searching cruise lines, looking for a single zero roulette table with at least an 8-bet min/max spread. As it turns out, there are thirteen cruise ships in the world that fit that profile (that I discovered), and after checking all of them against NovembeDecember departure dates from CONUS, I downselected to the Oasis of the Seas from Royal Caribbean for a 7-Day Caribbean cruise, booked it, and thus it was so!
The Game
For the duration of this cruise, I played single zero roulette and nothing else. The casino on board the Oasis of the Seas has four roulette tables; two American roulette tables on the smoking side, and one each American/European on the non-smoking side. I use the word "European" loosely because while it was single-zero, it had no European rules on it. All four tables were $5 - $100 on the inside, and $5 - $1000 on the outside. I attempted to make arrangements before the cruise as well as with the casino manager during the cruise to raise the limits for my gambling to no avail since I didn't have an established play history with Club Royale. I also requested La Partage be put into effect during my session play without luck - but that was a long shot anyway; the only single zero table I know of in the US with a minimum bet lower than $25 is the $10 - $3000 La Partage table at the Soaring Eagle in Michigan (sorry guys, terminal games don't count!)
Single zero roulette tables have a 2.7% house edge; down from the scandalous 5.4% house edge of American roulette (let alone the scammy triple zero crap that Carnival Cruise lines and the Venetian in Vegas are doing); La Partage lowers it to a magnificent 1.35%, but alas - I was destined to go without.
My Bets
Most of you are probably familiar with a martingale) series bet. For anyone else; on a $5 - $1000 table, $2,000 can bankroll a 8-bet sequence where I double my bet each time I lose, restarting my bet sequence each win. Due to chip denominations, my martingale progression is $5, $10, $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, $1000, which I find more reasonable than 5/10/20/40/80/160/320/640 due to the typical chip denominations 1/5/25/100/500/1000. In a tip of my hat to superstition, my increases from $10 to $25, $100 to $250, and $1000 to $2500 where applicable are my way of "punishing" the casino for making me leave the comfort zone of the outside minimum bet. Mock me if you must; its my personal flair - if my bets grow that high I "deserve" to win more than my base bet for the stress of having to bankroll the roll.
The chances of heads or tails on a coin flip are 50% for either outcome. On a single-zero table without La Partage, the equivalent bets - black/red, even/odd, 1-18/19-36 is ~48.6%, with the other 2.7% representing the green zero, or house edge - creating a theoretical loss probability of 2.7% of your bet per bet over time.
While the probability of an individual spin being black or red in my case is ~48.6%, the martingale betting progression ties your bets into a session, such that on the table I'm playing on, as long as I don't guess wrong 8 times in a row, I always win. On the off-chance that any newbs are reading this, this is NOT a "strategy" or "guaranteed way to make money." Martingale betting is a low risk, low reward means of using a large sum of money to win a little sum of money - pretty much the opposite of what people go into casinos to do. In statistical terms, the chances of me guessing wrong 8 times in a row in an 8 spin series is three tenths of one percent...but no one sits down for 8 spins and leaves - so my gambling is that when the house spins my losing sequence...I'm not there. =D Such is gambling.
Goals!
I've learned over the years that if I don't sit at a table with a fixed goal of when to leave, I will get bored and start making side bets (other even money bets or thirds) - more ways to win also mean more ways to lose, and when I am gambling, I am heavily socializing and drinking; I can't keep track of all of it at the same time. My goal is thus to always leave with 120% of my bankroll.
This trip was a bit confusing for me because I couldn't reconcile what my bankroll was. Not knowing whether the table limit would be fixed to $1000, or be able to be raised to $10,000 I brought $5,000 in cash with another $35,000 available as credit - I'd wrongly assumed the casino would at least double the table min/max to $10-$2000, and had been hoping they would leave the minimum and double the maximum, adding a one-bet buffer to my 8-spin series. With a $1,000 bet maximum, I stopped bringing more than $2,000 to the casino. If my bankroll is $2,000, I aim to leave with $2400. If my bankroll is $5,000, I aim to leave with $6,000. With $10,000, I aim to leave with $12,000.
I initially hoped to turn $2,000 into $2,400, but after doing that the first night gambling and the prospect of the rest of the cruise being bereft of gambling, I decided that since I'd brought $5,000 to gamble with, even if I could only play with $2,000 of it, my 120% goal meant I wanted $1,000 in winnings or bust.
On day two when I realized how stingy Club Royale was, and that I'd be buying my own drinks, I shelled out $360 for the liquor package, and adjusted my winning threshold to also cover the liquor package. Then there was a $300 spa treatment. Then an $1800 studio photography session since my wife wanted some nice pictures - something we've not done in a decade.
With these confusing inputs leaving me unsure of how to decide if I was up or down, it came down to the fact that while the casino was generally open 8-12 hours a day, the lone roulette table with the single zero didn't open until 8:00 PM - about when the cruise shows started. I did some begging and pleading to have it opened earlier every day to mixed success - a bit on the first day and on the last day, with nothing in the middle. They really wanted people on the American tables - which I had to resist, since for much of the cruise, it was American roulette or nothing. I contented myself during those periods with drinking, socializing with other gamblers, watching, drinking, and trying to find people who didn't have the booze package so I could buy them drinks.
Fun Facts
Anyway; it was a blast - but I'll probably go to Vegas for my next vacation instead of cruising. I want to gamble during the day, and go to shows in the evening, not wander around during the day, then have to decide whether I want to gamble or watch shows in the evening.
And here's a picture of me at my remote office aboard the cruise ship in case anyone was wondering what your mean old /gambling moderator ShelixAnakasian looks like.
submitted by ShelixAnakasian to Cruise [link] [comments]

Pre 4.1 interview with Yoshi-p (Summary translation)

Return to Ivalice.
The unending coil of Bahamut (Ultimate)
Shinryu (Extreme).
Lost Canals of Uznair.
Rival wings and pvp adjustments as a whole.
[Rival wings]
[The feast]
Perform feature.
Job adjustments.
[Dragoon]
[Machinist]
[Scholar]
[Others]
New minions: Hien, Koala, Shibainu.
New mounts: Flying Korpokkur and flying couch.
New hairstyles: Odango(bun) for women and ponytail for men.
New emotes: Spar? and talking emote.
Pics below: http://ff14net.2chblog.jp/archives/52198872.html
Additional info from the full interview will be added below:
Some interesting Game watch Q&A pick ups:
Q. Is the "hero" in the patch title a reference to "those 2" in the logo? (Note: The jp title is The return of the hero/heroes)
Yoshida: The "return" from the patch title was decided straight away, but we had some discussions on what the hero/heroes refers to, and we narrowed down the second key word to be "hero/heroes (legend in EN)" and kept it simple to understand. Just like other patches, it's related to the main scenario quest as well, but that's not all this time. It also has a double meaning for the nightmare of "The binding coils of bahamut" coming back again as "Zetsu" ("Ultimate" in the EN version. Zetsu can a part of the word Zetsubou = Despair) and it also reflects other content "returning" in some way. Even for us devs, it has a meaning for us to "return to the usual patch cycle" after releasing the expansion, which was a huge job. The 2 people in the logo are aimed to describe how they are still an illusion.
Q. Now that you've said so, Those challenging bad guys like Nael and Bahamut are returning.
Yo: After you play through "the return to ivalice" and the main scenario quest, i think you'll understand how the title fits the patch.
Q. I've heard you're a huge fan of Yasumi Matsuno (Creator of the ivalice universe) and i'm sure you were obsessed with his products, but did you have any trouble implementing those elements into FFXIV?
Yo: If Matsuno told me "You can create anything you like. Do as you please", we would have had a hard time, but this time, Matsuno wrote the script himself, so i was personally really excited and all i did was grin after reading his text and we just implemented what he decided to write. However, the scenario team did have some points where they had trouble and that is the fact that Matsuno's writing "leaves space for imagination". Matsuno himself has the whole picture/answers, but he leaves out the explanation on purpose. He doesn't write it as "lines read by people", so those words leave a strong impression and stays with you for longer. Which is why it's hard for the scenario team, because FFXIV is an MMO and focuses on its lore and it usually has a lot of lines that explains everything, which brings up the question "Don't we need to explain this more in detail?" and we were not sure if we should add information to the original script.
Q. That does sound like a difficult decision.
Yo: As a result, i made the final decision of leaving it as it is and most of it is left untouched. "People will imagine this and that and come to a conclusion" and even if they don't, players can have discussions on the topic. That's Matsuno's taste and since we invited him to bring in fresh air to FFXIV, we decided to leave it as it is. Which also means, it will have a different atmosphere to the other content.
Q. Is all of the story written by Matsuno? From the Plot?
Yo: Yes. What we did was, create a number of totally new characters for the first chapter. Then we told Matsuno "This is the amount of new face structures we can create". In another words, we told him the total cost each patch can have and told him that first. If we really wanted to add something brand new (outside of Matsuno's reach), we would discuss within the dev team first, then deliver it to him asking him to include it in his scenario.
Q. So you can't just keep adding new characters like novels.
Yo: Matsuno is a game designer and he's also had experience as a director and he's shown me his plans before, but he is a person who really writes them with detail. So it really helped us how he wrote the scenario understanding those restrictions.
Q. Did Matsuno give you ideas on what boss mechanics are like and what attacks they use?
Yo: When it comes to "Who will be the boss here", of course, Matsuno stated those specifics, but he was generous enough to leave the game experience aspect to us devs, so each boss has a member from the monster team assigned to them and they are all Matsuno fan boys. Also, those members don't want FFT and FFXII players to say "What the hell is this?", so all the bosses ended up with entirely new mechanics. It was difficult adjusting it (laughs).
Q. I'm sure the key word "Ivalice" will attract players outside of FFXIV to give FFXIV a try.
Yo: The main visual art has Delita and Ramuza included, so i hope people think "What's going on here?". "What is ivalice like in the world of FFXIV?" or "What is the war of the lions?" are stories that Matsuno is writing now and i can already see how players will react and interpret it, so the more of a Matsuno fan you are, the more exciting it should be. We made sure those who haven't played FFXII and FFT can enjoy it as a totally new story, but we organized FFT and FFXII elements that will put a smile on your face for those who do know these 2 games.
Q. I saw a Banga in the trailer.
Yo: You know, that's just how Matsuno is (laughs).
Q. I'm sure players were thinking "That's where you were supposed to show a Vierra!!!"
Yo: I've already told Matsuno that we don't have the cost to create a totally new model (laughs).
Q. What's the reward going to be for "return to ivalice"?
Yo: We aren't going to show it in advance this time, because it's a bit of a spoiler and it will cause misunderstandings.
Q. Is it gear? What sort of misunderstandings?
Yo: Like "Why is it rearranged?" There's a reason for it, but i thought it was better for players to find out about it after actually playing the game.
Shifting to "ultimate" questions.
Q. Is twister dive one of the easiest mechanics?
Yo: Twisters and dive bombs are both basic mechanics. You will see a twister from the get go and later on, when you see "twister dives", you think "So this is where fire balls come in to play..." There are a lot of combination of mechanics, so players will need a lot of getting used to.
Q. What i imagined was, dodging dive bombs from T9 while you deal with akh morn. There's a lot more i can come up with.
Yo: The fight starts with being able to get past the 1st phase or not. There's no way i'd tell world first raiders to stop, but for those who cleared o4 savage after the 3rd or 4th week, i would advise them to take their time and spend about 3 months to clear it, so they won't be strained. There is a lot of randomness involved, so you cannot create a time line for mechanics and there is no update in item levels this patch, so no mistakes are unforgiven (damage wise). Please have composure in your heart before you challenge this content.
Q. Just hearing it makes my heart pump.
Yo: This new patch won't raise the item level cap and since it's content only for those who have cleared the 4th turn, we balanced it so 340 is the "minimum item level". You will always have to have a barrier or cool down to live through it as a team, so a lot of cooperating and adjusting will be required.
Q. It really is the Pinnacle isn't it.
Yo: Yes. You will need to be one strong rock, so i don't want players with the mentality "We couldn't clear because of who" and prefer them to have the mentality to cover each other.
Q. It feels like i won't be able to clear it for a while.
Yo: I don't mind players visiting to just see the content, but please try to have the mentality of laughing as you go through phase 1. It will be released 2 weeks or so after patch 4.1 releases, so please take your time to enjoy it.
4gamer "ultimate" questions.
Q. So, only those who have cleared o4s can join the "ultimate" fight?
Yo: Correct. That is the "minimum requirement", but the difficulty for "ultimate" is on a different scale compared to o4s. I would like players with the mindset to be ready to climb the tallest mountain out of the seven continents. Also, those who cannot get past the 1st phase might be better off rechallenging the content after a certain amount of time or reexamine their gear and rotation.
Q. You need to go that far...So you'll cutting them off during the first phase.
Yo: That's Sudo god's kindness. If we made the first phase easy, players would just end up suffering more and dragging on to the next phase.
Q. I'm a raider so i know, but it does help to have someone like faust sensei at the start to tell you to give up at an early stage.
Yo: Phase 1 is like Faust sensei, but the difference is, she doesn't just stand there like Faust.
Q. I watched the trailer and saw some hints. A twintania model and a Nael model. Are there going to be situations where we fight multiple enemies at a time?
Yo: Maybe. It's content where it's like KotR ex and bahamut combined. Twister dives are just basics!
Q. That's just a basic move...
Yo: It's content where that's just an ordinary move. I'd like players to enjoy the battle where they have such a close game.
Q. I see...Looks like many players will be giving up in the 1st phase. Casters might have a hard time.
Yo: Casters...especially black mages might have a rough start. Black mages have a handicap of needing to cast, so if they don't know the fight/content, it's difficult for them to optomize. When ti comes to early progression, i can't deny the fact black mages are disadvantaged.
Q. You are a black mage.
Yo: Yes. I also attend the tests, but it feels like rotating 360 degrees and laughing about it with a stiff face while i play.
Q. That much...
Yo: This is the first fight out of the "Ultimate series", so we decided to start by making a truly merciless fight then receive feed back and use that to improve the future "ultimate" fights. So, we went all the way with the difficulty this time.
Shake it off Q. Now, we would like to ask some questions regarding the job adjustments. What interests me the most is shake it off. (shake off in the jp version)
Yo: Shake it off will have a totally different effect. We received feed back on how warrior is far behind when it cames to raid utility, so we gave shake it off a "warrior like" utility.
Q. I'm really happy about that, but the name of the skill won't fit what it does?
Yo: You are right, but everyone (in japan) calls it "Shake off san" (Mr. shake it off), so maybe we'll leave the japanese skill like it is and change the other languages (laughs).
Q. Are all the jobs going through adjustments?
Yo: No, only about half of them. After 4.06, the situation has gotten a lot better, so the main focus of the adjustments for 4.1 will be jobs like warriors that were avoided by players because of its low utility and jobs like dragoon, where many people are using it, but the DPS gap between the same job is extremely high.
Q. I see. Tanks and DPS and next comes healers. I feel like scholars have a hard time with AoE heals.
Yo: That might just be a problem about "impressions". If you're talking about the mp costs and the potency on the barriers, we do think it's okay to make it a little more efficient, but scholar once had a one and only position in the past, so we brought the other jobs to the same level, which made the other 2 jobs stand out a little more. With all the updates, more and more of the top players are using scholar now. Even with Astrologian, before we overpowered it, it was avoided by some players. Scholars will be broken if we go too far with buffing the job, so we'd like to observe the situation after the 4.1 changes.
Source for the summary: http://ff14net.2chblog.jp/archives/52197756.html Full interviews: https://www.famitsu.com/news/201710/05143355.html http://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/interview/1084527.html http://www.4gamer.net/games/360/G036007/20171004008/ https://www.gamer.ne.jp/news/201710050001/
submitted by CarrieRofLlight to ffxiv [link] [comments]

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