The Best Horse Betting Formula 2020

DKNG - Fundamental DD Inside - DKNG

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.

[1] Susquehanna Research – U.S. Online Gambling 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Goldman Sachs Research – DKNG Initiation 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by sircore to gtaonline [link] [comments]

The Diamond Casino & Resort: Los Santos - Grand Opening Megathread

GTA Online's brand new Diamond Casino & Resort will be available July 23rd.

News & Information Directly from Rockstar

- GTA Online: The Diamond Casino & Resort (Trailer)

- The Diamond Casino & Resort Grand Opening - July 23rd (Newswire)

[Casino Trailer]
Experience Excellence. The Diamond Casino & Resort opens for your enjoyment in the heart of Los Santos this Tuesday, July 23rd.

Opening Soon

[Casino Image]
The massive construction project on the corner of Vinewood Park Drive and Mirror Park Boulevard is nearing completion, radically changing the skyline of Los Santos forever. When the brand-new Diamond Casino & Resort opens its doors, one and all are welcome inside to play, or just to stay in the most luxurious residence in the entire state. More than just a place to let go of your inhibitions and your sense of the passage of time, The Diamond is the one-stop destination for quality entertainment, high-end living and a range of experiences you won’t find anywhere else.

The Casino

[Roulette Table Image]
If you're looking to dive into the action, the casino floor has a selection of activities to enjoy. Play against the house using Chips in Three Card Poker, Blackjack and Roulette. Slot Machines with a variety of prizes are also at your fingertips, while Inside Track offers a lounge to watch and cheer along with friends as the drama of virtual horse racing unfolds. Spin the Lucky Wheel in the lobby for chips, cash, and clothing or even the new Truffade Thrax supercar that can be found whirling on the podium during opening week. And be sure to check back each week to see what new high-end vehicle can be won. Check Rockstar Support for details and limitations.
Guests looking to push the limits of high-end resort fashion can also choose from the carefully curated rotation of new clothing and accessories in the Casino Store.

The Penthouse

[Penthouse Image]
Sitting atop The Diamond is an oasis of luxury for those shopping for a lavish pied-à-terre or just a feature-laden property in which to entertain friends. The Master Penthouse that sits beside the Roof Terrace with infinity pool and stunning views entitles the owner to VIP Membership status including access to VIP Lounges, High-Limit tables, plus a range of special services via the Penthouse phone including aircraft and limousine services and more. Renovate your residence with several upgradeable floorplans including a private Spa with a round-the-clock personal stylist, a Bar and Party area perfect for hosting raging Member Parties and featuring private retro arcade games, and a Media Room to enjoy games of Don’t Cross the Line and contemporary Vinewood cinema like Meltdown and The Loneliest Robot In Great Britain. As an owner, you can select the Penthouse’s color palette and patterns, and cement a place among the LS nouveau riche with a range of modern art from the Casino Store – from refined portraiture to pop art and daring modern sculpture – that can all be moved and placed around your property.
With a Master Penthouse you’ll also become a member of The Diamond family, and the family business needs your attention. Help property owner Tao Cheng and The Diamond staff protect their investment from the clutches of a corrupt family of Texan petrochemical magnates in a series of all new co-operative missions. Each mission pays out special Awards for first-time completion and hosting the entire story thread will reward you with a highly coveted, brand-new vehicle free of charge. You can also pickup additional work and odd jobs to earn extra cash and chips with a quick phone call to the Diamond’s head of operations, Agatha Baker.

Twitch Prime

[Another Penthouse(?) Image]
As part of the Rockstar Games Social Club x Twitch Prime Benefits program, all GTA Online players who link their Social Club account with Twitch Prime and claim their Twitch Prime benefits by the end of day on July 19th will be able to purchase the Master Penthouse for free in the Diamond Casino & Resort, as well as receive GTA$1.25M and up to 15% extra GTA$ on purchases of Shark Cash Cards.
Visit Twitch Prime and sign up to receive these perks and more coming soon, and visit the Social Club Events page to keep up with all special events, bonuses, and more in GTA Online.

Stay Tuned

[New Supercar Image, presumably the Truffade Thrax]
Visit thediamondcasinoandresort.com to see more details on what The Diamond has to offer, including Penthouse comforts, membership perks, and so much more.
We're also extending last week's bonuses through July 24th, so make the most of your time on the Stunt track – or contract as a Bodyguard/Associate on lucrative Business Battles, VIP Work, Sell Missions and more – and we'll see you at the grand opening.

TheDiamondCasinoAndResort.com

Check out this website. Seriously. It's a real website and it will give you a fantastic "in-character" look at what the update will bring. This website is better designed and more attractive than some real businesses' websites, believe me.

Home

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Excellence

A Luxury Casino & Resort In The Heart Of Vinewood

You've heard the rumors. You want to believe them, and there's only one way to find out. Abandon your preconceptions. Let go of your inhibitions, your doubts, your sense of proportion, your credit rating. The rumors didn't begin to do it justice. Welcome to The Diamond. Grand Opening July 23.

Membership

[Imgur Mirror]

Casino and Resort Membership

The Diamond is everyone’s playground. Invest in a Standard Membership today and you’ll be a lifelong partner in our project to meaningfully raise the standard of living for the one percent.

VIP Membership

At The Diamond, there are members, and there are members. And if you want to be the latter, you’re only a penthouse key away from enjoying the kind of status that only systemic elitism can provide.
Experience Preeminence

Parking Garage

This is not merely a garage. It’s not merely a maximum security, subterranean storage unit. Think of it as an air-conditioned, custom-built, expertly curated museum, where our clients can admire each other’s collections in peace and comfort.
Experience Accidents

Valet

Step out of our front door, right into your front seat: our valets are available 24/7, and are trained to never to look in the trunk, never to open the glove compartment, and never to ask questions.
Experience Incontinence

Champagne Service

Our client code of conduct states that if any member is seen ordering a bottle of our finest champagne, spraying half of it over the most exclusive clientele in the state, and downing the rest straight from the bottle, our security teams are obliged to loudly applaud.
Experience Turbulence

Aircraft Concierge

Going up? Let our concierge service take care of all your pre-flight checks, so you can step right into the cockpit with the engine ready for takeoff.
Experience Maintenance

Cleaning Service

We recruit our housekeepers from the most respected crime scene cleanup teams in the state. There is no bodily fluid or potentially infectious material they can’t remove in the time it takes you to find an alibi.
Experience Convenience

Limousine Service

Leaving The Diamond can be a traumatic experience, but we know how to cushion the blow. Our resident guests can order a Diamond Limousine to take them almost anywhere in the state, free of charge.
Experience Irrelevance

Members Party

Why go to the party, when the party can come to you? If you’re one of our resident members, you only need to click your fingers and we’ll provide the drinks, the music, and the dozens of close personal friends.
Experience Flatulence

VIP Lounge

Available exclusively to our resident members, this is the inner sanctum of indulgence, the apex of affluence, the pinnacle of privilege, the high point of high society.
Experience Arrogance

High Limit Tables

Welcome to the grown-up table: resident guests are entitled to play in our high-limit suites.

The Penthouses

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Residence

The Penthouses

A penthouse at The Diamond is not just a palace. It’s your palace. If you want a private spa, you can have it. Home cinema? Consider it done. Your own personal bar, private arcade cabinets, and office space? Just say the word: Diamond.
Experience Prominence

Master Bedroom

Silk sheets, fresh air bottled on the summit of Mount Chiliad, and round the clock access to the greatest roof terrace in Los Santos.
Experience Adolescence

Spare Bedroom

We all have that one friend. With a spare bedroom, they’ll have somewhere to crash that isn’t your bidet, and with access to their personal wardrobe they won’t have to keep borrowing your clothes.
Experience Fragrance

Spa Room

Your private spa comes with a round-the-clock personal stylist and a hot tub infused with extract of jojoba and a dissociative anesthetic.
Experience Interpretive Dance

Bar & Party Area

Why go to a night club, when a night club can come to you? The most exclusive venue in town is the one where you’re in charge of the guest list.
Experience Incompetence

Arcade Games

Time to dig out the high-waisted jeans and the fluorescent headband: Diamond Casinos have the exclusive rights to classic arcade games Invade and Persuade II and Street Crime: Gang Wars Edition.
Experience Correspondence

Office

Sometimes you need to take care of your affairs, but there’s no reason you should have to leave the lap of luxury to do it. All of our offices come with a gun locker and a hidden safe as standard.

The Casino

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Affluence

The Casino

Here, your dreams are reality, and your reality is a dream. Here, every whim can be satisfied, every fantasy fulfilled – no impulse control, no windows, no clocks, and no clearly labelled exits. Welcome to the Diamond standard.
Experience Eminence

Table Games

Don't be fooled. Roulette, blackjack, poker - at The Diamond, these aren't games. Every card dealt, every spin of the wheel, every polished quip, every gasp of the crowd, every delusion of grandeur: this is art.
Experience Overconfidence

Slot Machines

Here at The Diamond, we understand the fine art of the slot machine. We recognize the split-second reflexes, the years of research and training, the rock-solid intuition and the towering IQ that make a true master. That’s right. We’ve been waiting for you.
Experience Subservience

Inside Track

Horse racing is the sport of kings, and Inside Track is the only way to experience it – the drama, the majesty, the excitement, the perfectly simulated aroma of freshly cut turf and hot manure - all without leaving the comfort of a bespoke, air-conditioned suite.
Experience Tumescence

Lucky Wheel

Some people say that fortune favors the brave. Here at The Diamond, we’d rather say that destiny favors those with a full membership. Spin the wheel once a day, and you’re guaranteed a massive dose of self-importance every time.

Casino Store

[Imgur Mirror]
Experience Incontinence

Casino Store

Exclusive fashion. Unique designer artwork. There are some things in life that money can’t buy. But don’t fret. Our in-house store offers a rotating selection of tastefully curated items that can be purchased with Chips.

Images

Summary

  • The newly renovated casino is located at the racetrack in east Vinewood Hills, by the highway. It is owned by Tao Cheng.
  • Brucie is making a return as a character in this update
  • In the casino you can play a number of games, including:
    • Three Card Poker
    • Blackjack
    • Roulette
    • Slot Machines
    • Retro Arcade Games (?)
  • There is a wheel you can spin once per day in order to earn prizes like RP, GTA$, discounts, clothing, and even high-end vehicles.
  • There is a horse-racing and betting component, although it is unclear if it is only simulated and interacted with via the "Inside Track" room of the casino, or if the horse racing actually takes place in the game world, instanced or not.
  • The casino has a penthouse/residential component to it. Owners of the Master Penthouse can upgrade their residence with a private spa, a bar and party area, and a media room. Residents will also be able to spend chips on art and collectibles at the Casino Store which can be used to decorate the penthouse.
  • As a penthouse resident, you will get access to the business aspect of the casino, requiring you to work with Cheng to prevent a rich Texan family from taking over the casino. In addition to this storyline, you can do side jobs for the casino to earn GTA$ and chips.
  • The casino has a store that accepts chips as payment. You can use the chips to buy collectibles and decorations for your penthouse as well as clothing and accessories.

If you think I should add something to the summary, please let me know in the comments.

Also, if there is any other detailed information I can include elsewhere, I'd love to hear it. Particularly in analyzing the videos and screenshots and identifying new cars, etc.

submitted by OcelotWolf to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.

Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.

Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.

Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.

Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.

Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.

6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.

5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.

4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.

3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.

Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.

2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.

But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1

Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.

The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.

But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato

1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.

2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.

And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.

Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by enderpiet to gtaonline [link] [comments]

How to Become a Better Gambler Today

1 – Play the Right Games

If you don’t know what the house edge is, then you need to learn about it quickly. I’ll cover some of the basics for you, but a lot more study is required on your part if you’re going to choose the right games to play. The house edge is the percentage advantage that the casino has over you in respect to the games they offer.
Every game has a generalized house edge that you can find online. If you’re looking for the specific house edge of a game at a casino then you’ll need to do the calculations yourself as subtle rule differences impact the edge profoundly.
With all of this being said about the house edge, you’ll only find one game in the casino that is positive expectation. That is, if you play perfect strategy you can make money in the long run. That game is Deuces Wild video poker. And this is only true if you’re lucky enough to find the best pay table.
The reason casinos offer it is because it’s very difficult to implement perfect strategy and most players make mistakes that bring the edge back into the house’s favour.
After this video poker variant, you can play poker and bet on sports and horse racing if you hope to gamble with an edge. These are really the only other ways to make money in the long term.
Blackjack is also positive expectation if you use perfect basic strategy and count cards. But this is quite difficult to do these days and you’ll be evicted from most casinos for doing so. And in some cases you’ll be black listed for life.
If you must play casino table games, then stick to baccarat, craps, and blackjack. These offer the smallest possible house edge which means you’ll be able to push your dollars as far as possible. Remember to keep in mind that it’s impossible to win in the long term though.
By far the best game to play in the casino is poker. You can win in the long term in poker as the game is partially skill based and you face off against other players instead of the casino. The casino will make money from the games by charging a rake, both in tournaments and cash games. This is a small and insignificant amount though if you’re playing at even the lowest possible stakes.
After poker, stick with horse racing and sports betting. If you use the right strategies and methods you can win money in the long run betting on these.
It’s very difficult though, and even the professionals don’t make a lot of money. In recent times, daily fantasy sports have also risen to prominence and quite a few people have made decent money. It’s very difficult to do these days though so unless you’re going to put in a lot of hours you probably won’t do too well.

2- Don’t Play the Wrong Games

Knowing which games to play is just as important as knowing which games to avoid. In most casinos, you’ll come across a lot of these.
It goes without saying that lottery style games are the absolute worst for the player. This includes Keno, so if you regularly play this at the casino then consider switching to bingo instead.
It’s a similar game with slightly better odds and is a lot more socially engaging which makes up for the poor house edge. Now that you’re going to avoid lottery games, I’ll go into some more detail about other carnival games that you should skip.
First off, I call them carnival games because the odds are so massively stacked against you that you need to get very lucky to win. Much like the games you find at a carnival.
Casinos love these types of games because they’re quite often played very quickly, and have a huge house edge. Most important for them though is the fact they’re usually highly entertaining and thus, attract a lot of players.
Examples of some popular carnival games include Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, Three Card Poker, Four Card Poker, Texas Shootout, Ultimate Texas Holdem and Texas Holdem Bonus. These games all have a house edge above 2%, with Caribbean Stud hitting 5%. This just isn’t good for the player, so try to avoid these games.
Slots are a tricky one. While they’re technically a poor game choice, many people have a lot of fun playing them. If your main aim is to make money you should never play slots. They’re programmed to take a fixed percentage off players over a prolonged period. This coupled with the fact there’s no decision making makes them one to avoid.
However, if you love playing slots and have a lot of fun then consider moving across to video poker. Video poker offers solo play on a machine in much the same way slots do.
The main difference is that video poker is going to soften the blow in relation to how much you lose. The game is a lot slower than most slots and the house edge is drastically smaller. On top of this you have decisions to make in video poker so you can use strategy to improve your chances.
Another game that’s the wrong game, is any one that you don’t know how to play and implement perfect strategy. I’ll cover more on this below, but a general rule to follow is never to play a game for real money that you aren’t familiar with.

3 – Manage Your Bankroll

If you’re going to take your gambling seriously and would like to do as well as possible, then you need to manage your bankroll. All too often you’ll hear stories of people losing everything at the casino or track. While this is tragic it can be easily avoided with some discipline and a sound bankroll management strategy.
To start with, you should set aside a fixed amount of money you’re going to use for gambling purposes. This should be separate from money you use in everyday life. If you wish to add or subtract from this you can do so, but it should be only in certain situations and based on time, not on the amount of money you have in your bankroll.
Once you’ve done this, you can then start to think about how much of your bankroll you’re willing to risk each session or game. For those who are keen poker players, you may have heard that 5% is the key percentage when it comes to game cost to bankroll ratio.
That is, you should never risk more than 5% of your bankroll in a single game. This is a good rule to live by and should ensure that you never go truly broke. This is if you’re playing poker, betting on horses or sports, or playing daily fantasy sports, and that you’re implementing solid and successful strategies in doing so. This is the key.
If you play a negative expectation game your bankroll will slowly diminish over time, and eventually you’ll have to re-fill it from other areas of income. This is fine, provided you’re playing for entertainments sake and understand that you’ll lose in the long run.
One more key thing you’ll need to do when managing your bankroll is keeping track of everything. You can do this through a spreadsheet on your computer, or even a diary. It’s basically like keeping a budget on what you’ve spent money on, where you’ve made money, and where you’ve lost it.
This way you’ll be able to better track your spending patterns and manage your bankroll more effectively.
Finally, if you’re a recreational gambler and head to Las Vegas or Atlantic City once a year, then you can also implement some bankroll management tactics. The best one to use on short trips is to identify in advance how much money you’re going to gamble.
Then you can divide this up by the number of days you’re in town to work out your daily allowance. Once you’ve done this place each day’s amount in its own envelope. When you arrive in Las Vegas or wherever you may be, place the envelopes in the safe and then use each one on the relevant day.
Once you’ve spent all of the day’s money then that’s it; no more gambling. If you stick to this method you’ll never spend more than you’re meant to and quite often you’ll end up winning each day, which makes things even nicer.
submitted by PresentType to theinfosbobet88 [link] [comments]

My 120k

I never thought I’d be in this position, or here writing this. This will be a long post, and I am ashamed to write this. My addiction began when I was about 18 years old, I wasn’t big into school. My plan was to always take over the family business. As an 18 year old I was making around $ 3800.00 a month. Seems like a lot for a kid straight out of high school. I started playing draft kings, which was more of entertainment than anything at the time. I’d wager about $200 a week. I would say I’d win about 60% of the contest. I’ll speed it up. I did side jobs for the trade I was in, I had a friend of a friend ask me to do a job for him. I said of course. So we started talking and he asked me if I was going to local horse races. I had no clue what horse racing was, he said if you like fantasy football you will love horse racing! I didn’t go to the races but he told me about an app online. So I started playing, and that’s when the outbreak occurred. I started betting 300$ on single races, I won about 30% of the races I played. But I’m a competitive gambler and wanted my money back. I lost around my savings 6k and all the money from side job 1,650.00 all I could thing of was how angry I was. So I tried taking out a loan. Credit was 730 and my income was great for a personal loan. So I tried credit karma- you are pre approved for $20,000 so I applied to Goldman Sachs and got approved for a 20,000.00 loan! Guess where all that money went- on the horses! LOST IT ALL- so I’m about 19 now and I’m still finding ways to gamble, I have a fiancé which I would later marry @ 20 To make this story shorted I took out 3 more loans within the next 16 months and maxed out credit cards Personal loans came out to $43,000 I don’t know how in the world I got approved and I convinced my fiancé to get a loan for 5k to help with “honey moon” So we are up to $48,000 in loans And around 10,000 in credit cards from gambling Spent around 40,000 in 5 years of my work checks. Not proud of this but I had an overpayment on taxes that I lied on. I got a 10k check total from state and irs. I couldn’t sleep, so 3 months later I re-did my taxes and now I’m making payments to IRS and State. I filed for bankruptcy earlier this year which was sad, but a relief. Also I’ve had a 401k since I was 16 and I eventually had 9k- cashed that out as well. There was a penalty for taking it out, I didn’t care at the time, I was trying to get rich! So with spending over $120,000.00 I don’t ever see hope. I can’t even by my wife a Christmas present or daughter. I have $600.00 in my name right now. Past weekend I turned 350.00 in blackjack in to 5,800.00 I made a request to withdrawal 2,000.00 via bitcoin They have a delay. So I was on my phone all day- I had 3,800 to play with. I started getting more aggressive 500 wagers. I ended up losing all of it and took out the 2 k to try and win it back. That was the first time I though about suicide. I sat in the shower thinking how I can do it. I cried, punched myself multiple times thinking how my wife and 8 month old daughter don’t deserve me. But I wouldn’t want them to see me dead my daughter needs me. I’m such a loser, I hope people can learn from my story.
submitted by sadgambler77 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

The Diamond Casino & Resort FAQ Megathread

Last updated 2:00 EST, 27 July
RIP my inbox
All new posts asking about information already provided here will be removed and redirected here to reduce redundancy.

Release

As of 5:15 EST, the update has released on PS4, Xbox One, and PC.
  • 3.4GB on PS4
  • 3.2GB on Xbox One
  • 2.9GB on Steam
  • 2.6GB on Social Club.
On the note of releases... Some countries will not be able to access certain content from this update due to gambling laws. Thankfully though, players from these countries will still be allowed to download the update in general.

Money for Diamond Casino

For ways to make money to afford the new DLC content, along with methods to make an empty lobby to do CEO/MC work, check the Mega Guide.
Tips
  • You only need $50,000 to register as a VIP! If you have at least that much, you can register as a VIP for 4 hours and get access to VIP missions (which can be done in an invite only session), giving you a lucrative way to save up.
  • If you own both a crate warehouse and vehicle warehouse, you could use them together to make more money overtime than you could by using either exclusively. Use your sourcing/exports between crate pickups and sales, and you'll be getting the best of both worlds, gaining from the postive money-making aspects of both.

Content and Prices

Content that has initially released with the update.
Southern San Andreas Super Autos
  • Weeny Issi Sport - $897,000
  • Vapid Caracara 4x4 - $875,000
Legendary Motorsport
  • Annis S80RR: $2.6million
  • Enus Paragon R: $905,000
  • Obey 8F Drafter: $718,000
  • Truffade Thrax: $2.3million
Penthouses
  • Cash Pad: $1.5million
  • Party Penthouse: $3.78million
  • High Roller: $6.5million
  • "Design Your Own": $1.5million
Penthouse Customizations
  • Colour options: $215,000 or $258,500
  • Pattern options: $92,000 - $210,000
Penthouse Addons
  • Lounge Area: $400,000
  • Media Room: $500,000
  • Spa: $800,000
  • Bar and Party Hub: $700,000
  • Private Dealer: $1.1million
  • Office: $200,000
  • Extra Bedroom: $200,000
  • Garage: $800,000

Gambling

As this is a Casino-centric update, there's plenty of ways to gamble away your hard-grinded money.
The gambling in this game centers around a new form of currency, called Chips. These chips are pretty much like real-world gambling chips, with a one-to-one dollar value, except you keep your chips when you leave the casino. Chips are an actual currency in GTA Online, as they can be used to purchase exclusive items from a shop inside the casino, along with being used to bet with when playing the Gambling Games, listed below
  • Slot Machines: There's plenty of options to choose from, but they all perform the same way. Spend some chips, and let the RNG decide whether or not you earn anything from it.
  • Blackjack: Casino style blackjack with up to four simultaneous players, all of which play against the dealer. Anyone who beats the dealer individually wins, anyone who the dealer beats individually loses, and if the dealer gets Blackjack (an Ace and 10/face-card), everyone immediately loses. Assuming your initial hand isn't a Blackjack, you have the option of doubling-down, which doubles your initial bet with the caveat of only being able to hit once.
  • Poker: Three-card poker. You make your bets, check your hand, and similar to Blackjack, each player wins if their hand is better than the dealer's, and the dealer beats whoever has a worse hand than him. While there is no option to double-down, how much you win does depend on how good of a hand you have. The better your hand, the more you win. Also, while you can fold your hand, you lose your initial bet anyway.
  • Horse Racing: Pretty much standard horse racing bettering. You choose a horse, you put your money down, and if you bet correctly, you get double the amount you bet in return. Otherwise, you just lose the amount you bet.
To gain more chips, there is a counter inside the casino where you can buy them, however you are limited in how many you can buy per day (real-world 24 hours). As standard, you can buy a maximum of 20,000 chips per day, but if you own a penthouse of any tier, you can buy up to 50,000 chips per day. Chips can also be traded in for money, but there does not appear to be a limit on this. No matter how many chips you win from gambling, it appears that you can trade them all in at once for the equivalent dollar value.
Lastly, there is the Wheel. It's a roulette wheel that you can only spin once per day, which costs $500 per spin. There are twenty reward slots, and since some rewards are in multiple slots, they have greater chances of being selected. The biggest note about this wheel however is that there is one slot in which you can win a free car! What makes this so significant is that since the car takes a 1/20 slot on the wheel, that means you still have a 5% chance of winning a free high-value vehicle! Compared to most online games, that's pretty much the most generous RNG you can get.

Business and Missions

coming soon

FAQ

Are there any differences between the penthouses
For once, yes! Well, technically... they're the same basic property layout, but each option gives you different addon options.
  • The Cash Pad: The basic Penthouse with no property addons available . You cannot purchase a garage, extra bedroom, lounge, etc. with the Cash Pad. You can, however, purchase penthouse customizations (colour and wall patterns).
  • The Party Penthouse: Gives you certain of the addon options: the main Penthouse, the Extra Bedroom, the Lounge Area, the Spa, and the Bar and Party Hub. You are locked to these options, no more, no less.
  • The High Roller: Gives you all of the property addons as standard, and the most expensive penthouse customization options... this means that you cannot choose your own colour and wall patterns with this version.
  • The "Design Your Own": ...What should be the standard option. It gives you the basic penthouse and allows you to choose which addons and customizations you want, with an extra cost for each one, of course. Just get this one. You can also renovate this option later, allowing you to purchase more addons and change your customizations later.
What do the Penthouse Addons do?
  • Lounge Area: Allows you to purchase the other Penthouse Addons (except for the Extra Bedroom and Garage, which are the only items addons that can be purchased without a Lounge).
  • Media Room: You know the cinemas around Los Santos? The ones that play a few 5 minute animated films on repeat? That, but in a Penthouse.
  • Spa: Gives you access to a hot tub and a Personal Stylist. The Stylist's services are the same as the ones spread around Los Santos (hair, contacts, and make up), but they're all free.
  • Bar and Party Hub: Allows you to consume drinks that instantly intoxicate your character, along with access to special arcade games that aren't available anywhere else in the game.
  • Private Dealer: Allows you to play gambling games in your penthouse.
  • Office: Adds a standard computer, a Gun Locker, and a money vault (don't get excited, it's just aesthetic).
  • Extra Bedroom: Bedrooms in owned properties in GTA Online are used as spawn points, so why can you pay to have an extra one? Because you can now allow a friend of yours to claim it! The Extra Bedroom allows a friend of yours to use your penthouse as a spawn apparently, though the exact implementation of this is not completely clear.
  • Garage: Access to the Penthouse's garage bay.
How do I get the armored car?
  • To recieve the Enus Paragon R (Armoured), you have to complete the Diamond Casino's mission series, which you must own a penthouse to access. Once of the missions are complete, you'll be given the vehicle for free! But remember, it's uninsured and you only get it once, so immediately go into passive mode and take it to the nearest Los Santos Customs to insure it, or else you could lose the vehicle permanently.

Passive Mode

Good news, passive mode has been fixed!
  • Passive Mode can now no longer be active when using a weaponized vehicle
  • A Passive Mode cooldown of 2 minutes is now in place for players who have just killed another player
  • Players now must wait 5 minutes before they can activate Passive Mode again after disabling it
  • Players now must wait 30 seconds before they can disable Passive Mode after activating it
These changes make is so that grievers can no longer abuse passive mode, or at least no where near as easily. If you start to get the upper-hand on a griefer and destroy whatever death-machine they're using to troll you, or if you confront them in a death-machine of your own, they can't abuse Passive Mode to try to get the upper-hand on you!

Solo Session

Check the Mega Guide for ways to push yourself into a public Online session with no one else in it. Keep in mind that some missions and abilities are unavailable if there's no one else with you though!

Bugs and Glitches

  • Apparently on PS4 and Xbox One, you must have full size of GTA V available to download the update, so if you have less than ~60GB free, you may have trouble downloading the update. This does not mean that the entire game is re-downloaded, it just means that the update may not download if you don't have that much space available.

Credits

Special Thanks: u/Rebored_Warrior - Sent me the official patch notes link!
  • u/LordMcze - Information on countries that restrict players from gambling functions.
submitted by L131 to gtaonline [link] [comments]

The Flavortown Griffon/Gryphon/GriffinSLayers

The tale of the flavortown griffon slayers, as told collectively by its members. Primarily features the paladin who appears, at least to himself after giving up proclaiming he wasn’t the party leader, to be the protagonist of our merry band (and wrote most of this in the third person before having the others add their piece to it, so if it seems disorganized or goes into unnecessary information, it’s because this was a team effort.) and Buddy Flaymes, our party cook. This story took days irl to get through so it may be a long one even if we skim over the combat. *And two separate all-nighters, each spanning more than 10 hours.*The cast:
DM: SiberianVII (also has a character they play in the server named Theodora)
Sir Marcelet Relleque (Pronounced Mar sel ay) the Human Paladin, leader of the expedition and Frenchie no. 1 (some just call him Marcel)
Sir Renatus Allectius the Human not-Byzantine fighter and the actual leader (more on that in a bit) As you can tell by the heraldry on his chest he likes griffins.
Alexios Redmoon the Gloom Stalker ranger, Frenchie no. 2, and Teddy Roosevelt wannabe.
Waldemar von Malberg the Human druid and occasional steed.
Sir Leon de Gaumont the Human Eldritch Fighter and Frenchie no. 3. Another Knight who ended up leaving his squire at town for both logistical and safety reasons. Also because the DMs hadn’t given him a sidekick. At least not yet.
Khalahad Marcevia II the Human noble rogue.
Sherlock Lomin the detective, also a gnome rogue. Incredibly high investigation score. What did you expect?
Father Krag the Half-Orc Cleric of Order and all around chad.
Buddy Flaymes, also known as black guy fieri, the Human warlock (not a cleric) and the life of the party. (Hopefully you remember him from the sequel to this story) Buddy Flaymes was also our party cook. He was a warlock, not of Elijah faith, no no, not even celestial. Fucking fiend. This bastard role-played him so well, no one knew he was a fiend warlock. Even with his frosted tips.
Catherine Relleque, who is Marcelet’s sister, Human squire, and Frenchie no. 4. The two DMs present ruled that she could use sidekick rules because they’re awesome, (the dms and the rules) and this facilitated a useless background character retainer to become a major player in the story.
Yohan Fryers II the Human fighter and honorary member of the gryphon slayers
The rest of the cast showed up later on during the story, but I shall list them here nonetheless.Ghimbold the world ending rat summoning wizard, capable of creating an acid spewing flammenwerfer from a simple rat.Plumbgar Guffen the Half-orc Barbarian Zealot and local semi-truck. Mother fucker could carry a mountain if he tried.Clover the jewish (read: kleptomaniac) Monk (Who is also a DM on the server and who claims to NOT be a slaver, as their *helper* is “willing,” and because they get free food)
Our story begins with a previous adventure with the same DM and a different cast, where our caravan from the Crusader town of Rigan was attacked by Griffons that tried to steal our horses and eat them. Not cool. Our Druid (Waldemar was there) managed to convince them not to take our horses and fed them the corpses of some pagans we killed along the way. Renatus and Marcelet objected, but the adventure had gone on for many hours into the night and everyone else wanted to get it over with and go to bed.Renatus was adamant about getting a griffon mount, and after deciding that gryphons cannot be tamed unless raised from birth- He decided to petition the DM for a special quest to hunt down the Griffin nest and steal their eggs. Marcelet had the map to the area, and so was treated as the expedition leader by default for some reason despite his own assertion that it was Renatus’ idea. He was also driven to hunt down the Griffons, but more because the Griffins were attacking caravans and eating horses, and the french knight was a lover of people and horses. (Not in that way you sickos)Thus began three irl days and twenty hours of hell. D&D Marathons are not for the faint of heart.The expedition began with the party heading off to the market to get some climbing gear, only to find that some little shit Kenku was going around buying up all the climber’s kits. We tracked him down with the intent of getting that gear out of him, and it turns out he was buying them up because he wanted some gryphon feathers and he heard about our quest, deciding to supply us for the trip. Turns out he’s some OP wizard and magic cloak salesman, who is fabulously wealthy and supplied us with a shit-load of chinese knockoff magic items that break after one use. From him, the party got ten one-use rings of feather fall, ten harpoons that would ground any flying creatures impaled with it, a few magical weight stones that fully encumbered any creature carrying it (these rocks were never used apart from endurance training for the squire. Poor Catherine.), a five hundred foot rope of mending, a bag of holding to carry the griffon bodies and the rocks, and at Buddy the chef warlock’s request another magical bag holding fifty extremely high quality rations with herbs and spices. We were fully stocked on flavor.
Another thing to note, when the party saw the token Marcelet picked out for his squire, several of them were… impressed with how attractive she looked. This led to, throughout the entire adventure, people (mostly Buddy) doing nice things for her and taking care of her while declaring “I ain’t simpin, but…” It became a running gag that everyone was simping for Catherine.
With the supplies in order, the party set out, following a map into a vilderfolk (Tree people) ambush that we knew would be there even before the trees started speaking Vietnamese. We crushed them in seconds. It was like dropping napalm in the jungle. EXCEPT THE VILDERFOLK ARMOR EXPLODES INTO FRAGMENTS WHEN THEY BURN. This began a pattern of our melee fighters, especially the paladin, having knee jerk reactions and ptsd flashbacks any time someone cast a fire spell. To this day a single spark will make the paladin take cover behind his shield, so much so that the DM started giving him a bonus on the dex save from how often he had to do it.
With all that dealt with, we arrived at the spot where we met some griffons in the last quest. We get into positions and await our feathery opponents to swarm their known hunting grounds. We sprung our ambush as five swooped in to take our livestock. Renatus bought a goat before we left as a sacrifice which lasted for maybe half a second. Bill Nye the fainting goat had his head torn off and was immediately swallowed whole. (Where is the goat!?) That Gryphon was pleased with his flavortown experience. It never got the chance to leave a glowing review however, because we impaled it with a harpoon of grounding, causing it to fall off a cliff as it tried to fly away. The Paladin jumped off the same cliff, landing on its back and driving his sword into the poor bird. It threw him off and critically struck its beak into him in anger. Sir Marcelet the Unyielding cares not for your crits. The Party beat the bird to death and he immediately jumped off another cliff landing on another griffon to kill it as Buddy Flaymes was roasting Gryphon haunches and taking them down to flavor town. Krag the Half-Orc Cleric and certified badass harpooned a Griffon diving to attack the druid and held it in place single-handedly, with a rope he tied to the harpoon, preventing the attack and simultaneously shanking the griffon the paladin rode. One of the Griffons tried to escape, but Sherlock the gnome ran up to it and harpooned it just before it flew back into the mountains. One got away, but this was all according to plan. We had our ranger cast hunter’s mark on it, so that we could follow it back to its nest.
At the end of the fight our fighter Yohan and his hot Lucerne Hammer (I know that was yours, Marcus) had to leave for irl reasons, but not before helping to fell many griffons and earning honorary griffon slayer status, despite missing the pain and suffering to come. He was replaced in the next encounter by Ghimbold and his rat.
As we finished up our second encounter, we had to race up a giant cliff against the clock, as a hunter’s mark only lasts so long, so we gave the 500 ft. rope of mending to Krag the Chad and had him climb up and throw down the rope to get our fat asses up the cliff side. Ghimbold randomly walks by and sees us climbing, deciding to follow us up the cliff and join the party. Thus we had our vermin Wizard with us on our next encounter that seemed to be an empty valley, until it was filled by eighteen mutant bandits and their massive overweight leader, Gerchek, affectionately dubbed “Big Nigga” by the party. This was followed shortly after by six Gryphons swooping down from the sky to feast on bandits and PCs alike. Krag harpooned another griffon out of the sky and grappled it once again while his spiritual weapon smashed the bandits faces in. The wizard removed seven of the bandits from existence deftly with two turns of magic missiles. Marcelet and the gnome defeated a griffon with high consistent damage, whilst the druid held another at bay. In the chaos, we rolled crit after crit, our luck seemingly endless as we slew man and beast alike. Marcelet shouting inspiring speeches and rallying cries as Buddy looked at the bandit boss and concocted the greatest thing I’ve ever heard of.“I want to make a flavor bomb.”I don’t know or care what that is. Just YES. DO IT.
With the help of Catherine the squire, Buddy reached into his bag of rations and put together a concoction of every herb and spice known to man, before hurling it at big nigga. The idea was for the griffons to be distracted by the all you can eat buffet and kill Big Nigga and his band of merry Nigglets, perfectly seasoned by his flavor bomb. Giving the party the perfect opportunity to sweep up the remains. That didn’t work, while Big Nigga was perfectly seasoned by the multitude of herbs and spices and one bandit died from breaking his neck on a rock after the spice got in his eye. It didn’t have much of an effect on the griffons themselves, though they were already slaughtering them regardless and Big Nigga smelled delicious while he was being burned alive by summon bonfire. The casters unleashed all the fire spells they had while the frontline cut him up in melee. By the time the fight was over, we were all trying as hard as we could to resist cannibalism, except for Buddy who tried to sneak a bite. He rolled a natural 1. We all saw him taste a person. Krag was the only one bothered, but was too tired to do anything about it. God, we love this guy. We forgive you, buddy.
By this point even our unstoppable train of destruction was running out of fuel, so we all took a long rest after digging up the bandits’ buried treasure and moved on to the next area. A giant chasm with only a few rickety rope bridges to cross it. I think we all know where this is going.
As soon as we attempted to cross seven Gryphons swooped down from the sky to knock us into the pit, archers popped out of the trees to shoot us while we had no cover, and Vilderfolk with axes started chopping the ropes off the bridges. Then, to make matters worse, our players started dropping like flies. Not our characters. The players. We had been going for nearly ten hours straight through the middle of the night by this point, and only about half of us weren’t face first on our keyboards by the time the fight ended. We barely survived due to sheer luck and tactics, with Ghimbold the wizard even getting crit for just barely under lethal damage at one time and far more players having fallen asleep at their desks.
The few of us left standing took another long rest, most of us leveled up, with Marcelet taking mounted combatant as a level 4 feat. Yes that is relevant. Then we ended the session for the night. We knew we were just short of reaching the nest we had fought so long and hard to get to. I said it would be cool if all the wounded griffins that escaped along the way had all retreated to their nest. The DM wrote it down. What was I thinking?Drunk on sleep deprivation, two of the remaining players began competing over who would get to get with Catherine, until Renatus’ player shouted “Marcelet, I roll to fuck your sister!” prompting the DM to kick us all from the call in what seemed to be a reasonable move.
The next day we gathered together once more, though Krag couldn’t make it due to irl things, so we had Plumbgar appear, being dragged along by a lone griffon. Sherlock shot the Griffin, causing it to drop Plumbgar, freeing the Half-Orc zealot and carrying on with our quest. Then Ghimbold had to leave, so he pulled off his wizard robes and revealed himself to be Clover. Don’t question it. It was decided later that he was replaced in the night but fuck that.
We came to a cave entrance, with Griffins filling a field in front of us. This was it, we had found the nest- yet ahead of us, nine massive griffons and a squad of vilderfolk who were obviously breeding and taming them to attack the city of Rigan. Vilderfolk were literally coming out of the walls, covered in clay and stone which acted as ablative armor. We were doomed.
Leon acted first by charging two griffons while Marcelet somehow convinced Waldemar to wild-shape into a warhorse, then climbed atop him and rode into battle. (Death! Ride to ruin and the world’s ending!) When the Gryphons smelled their favorite food, horse, they swarmed the duo just as Marcelet expected, and due to the mounted combatant feat, they had to deal with the heavily armored paladin before they could chow down on tasty druid, and they were able to distract 4-5 griffons simultaneously. The paladin was a whirlwind of blocks and parries, hard tanking as much of the encounter as possible. Sir Leon held a trio of griffons at bay blocking and striking any griffon that would dare harm his allies. However, I wish I was exaggerating even slightly when I say the DM crit on every other attack roll. This absurd luck was tearing the party to ribbons, but they forgot one thing: Marcelet the steel hearted cares not for your crits! He took five crits and several other heavy hits and didn’t drop until after the gryphons slammed into him at full force to knock him from his mount and carried away his increasingly regret filled druid friend.
At this point everyone was either unconscious or about to be due to the onslaught of unending critical hits, not only such but seven of the remaining gryphons had swooped in earlier from the previous encounters, bringing it to sixteen. Enemies were starting to try and coup de grâce downed party and Buddy Flaymes had two failed death saves in a row and was about to make the roll that would decide whether he lived or died. We all held our breath. The DM asked him “Would you like to make another deal with your patron?” he agreed and was whisked off to a private call where the DM had Buddy’s infernal patron offer a deal. He could live, but in return he must offer the soul of one of the party members, probably Catherine. Buddy refused. He would rather die than betray his friends. Buddy is Chad. his infernal patron sent him back to the real world where he rolled his final death save. He crit.
The DM pulled him aside again. I don’t know what happened for sure but a mysterious new patron offered him a deal, and he took it.Phat. Tiddy. Anime. Waifu.
His new celestial patron, Ambrothea, manifested on the battlefield after Buddy arose from his second nat 20 with his frosted tips emitting radiant light. Each demanded by the rule of cool, shooting a giant ass arrows of God at one gryphon at full health and due to the DM’s already prolific luck scored a crit rolling 8d10+10 still not even killing the roided out griffin. Even as we slowly turned the tide, we still only barely managed to scrape by with our lives. Then as the fight wound down one healthy gryphon decided to fuck off and make his own nest with blackjack and hookers, leaving us with a total of twenty six of twenty seven gryphons killed on the hunt. Not a bad haul might I say, after the conclusion of that shitfest the patron came down to provide us with a tiny hut for a proper rest as her final gift.
We set out into the cave to collect our eggs. Wait a minute, this isn’t a nest… it’s a tomb! Before us was a line of statues, and because darkvision can’t discern color, we couldn’t tell that some of them weren’t statues until Marcelet lit up his sword with Channel Divinity: Sacred Weapon. We started cutting them down, then the paladin recklessly charged into the next room alone, drunk on bloodlust, calmed only by Waldemar casting spike growth in front of him, keeping him from running further into the room so the rest of the party could catch up and form a line in the doorway. Then a boss enemy, some bird woman, jumps into the room, directly onto the spikes, and unloads a rapid fire bow volley into our line, surprisingly the arrows didn't hurt too much but then a line of vilderfolk simps run into the room, laying down on the spikes to make a bridge for another boss enemy, some kind of witch, to enter. OH FUCK RUN! It was far too late to run as she announced her entrance by dropping a fireball, not simply announced as such, oh no, that’d be too easy. The DM pulled his book and read the description of the spell as the bunched up eight of the ten adventurers waited in abject horror, knocking out half of us in a single blow. FUCKING FIREBALL
If it weren’t for Waldemar’s spirit totems healing us all we’d have been doomed right then and there. We unleashed every ranged attack we had on the witch, but the simps kept jumping in front of her and dying instantly. We resolved to abuse this mechanic for instant kills on vilderfolk when the third boss entered the room, a giant man wielding a maul dripping with acid and a belt of enlarge person, which Clover, our (regular Jewish) monk, immediately called dibs on. The giant, who we’d later learn was Vol’folk, a nobleman from Sikelonia, challenged us to a one on one duel. If we win, they will leave this place peacefully. Clover eagerly accepted, ready to make use of her unbeatable 1v1 monk powers, but Marcelet growled “No. No pagans leave this place alive.” Every syllable dripping with murder-hobo bloodlust. So then the giant turned to the rabid paladin that was drunk on religious violence, and said “Then I challenge you, knight. Duel me, and if you win, all our lives are yours, but if you lose, then your comrades die as well.”
Taken aback by the direct challenge, and reminded that he was a paladin of devotion, whose tenets included that of honor. The DM and player decided this meant that he could not refuse the duel, and so he begrudgingly accepted. With a wall of force tossed up for good measure as well, preventing the party from killing them in their sleep.
The two sides parted to rest and recuperate, while also spying on each-other, noting that much of the vilderfolk and one of their human champions (bird girl) fled through a secret passage in the middle of the night, and they in turn learned that the party was planning on interfering with the duel. In the morning the two dueling partners met, and confronted each other about what they had learned about the other party during the night. When he finished admonishing Vol’folk about those who had fled their potential execution, Marcelet realized that yet so many of them had stayed behind to die with honor. At this moment, he realized that he had become a monster.
“I’m changing the terms of our duel, Vol’folk.”“Oh?” the oversized man replied.
“If I win, I shall spare your men, and if you win, you shall spare mine.” (Tenet: Compassion)
The entire party was moved by this act, and what was beginning to look like a potential heroic sacrifice even though the party wouldn’t have gone out without a fight either way. Vol’folk accepted.
The witch cast a barrier ring around the two fighters to prevent meddling, as Vol’folk gave the paladin a magic sword that radiated holy power, to even the playing field against his belt and acidic maul, reaching bro levels that shouldn’t be possible. The party was making bets as the fight began, and the circle jerk of two nobles complimenting each other as they tried to kill each other ensued.
“You fight with the strength of many men, sir knight.”
“As do you!”
“Truly you are a worthy foe”
(Coughing up blood and acid) “An excellent strike!”
The DM didn’t hold back though. Vol’folk had a special attack that could one hit KO Marcelet if the damage roll was good, and it had a +10 modifier to hit, so all he had to roll was an 8 or higher to get through the paladin’s chainmail and shield. It never landed, only managing to land a few crits on lesser (but still strong enough to take half his hp off) attacks. Even so, Marcelet the invincible cares not for your crits! Even as he bled profusely and his armor was reduced to acidic goop at his feet, with a self administered lay on hands, and a final swing of his new magic sword he took Vol’folk’s leg off and brought his foe to his knees.
“You fought well.” The paladin respected his opponent once more, before dropping his shield, unscrewing the pommel of his sword, chucking it at Vol’folks head, Ending him Rightly, knocking him unconscious, and concluding the duel.
As the barrier came down, the party rushed Marcelet for a group hug, lifting his hands into the air and cheering in victory. A crowning moment of heartwarming as not one of them complained that he had stolen the limelight. They rejoiced in his victory for as brothers and sisters, his victory was their own. Not one of them defied the terms of the duel, even allowing Vol’folk himself to leave in peace when he came to, despite all of them being hungry for xp and only trusting their word that they wouldn’t fight against us again. We even got the griffon eggs we came all this way for, sacrificing blood sweat and tears along the way.
That is how you cure murderhobos.
While everyone was exploring the tomb, Sherlock and Clover went back to talk to Vol’folk, who was coming back to his senses. He told us his story, and Sherlock offered to bring him back to the town. He declined, as he had made a pact with the wilderfolk for a magical belt that he could not remove, and the inquisitor, according to him, was able to sniff out wilderfolk magic and would kill him if he was found. He decided to stay out in the woods, but not before giving Sherlock a map to Vol’Folk’s castle. We even learned later on that Vol’folk and his band had become converts, perhaps impressed by our honor and mercy.
When we got back to town, everyone was happy, until everything with two legs started trying to rob us of our hard earned rewards. A knight, supposedly from the local crusader order tried to confiscate our eggs, our supplier, the Kenku, was wringing his hands like a greedy gnome with dollar signs in his eyes, and Clover went full klepto and had already stolen a sizeable share of the rewards from us when we weren’t looking.
Once we split the shares of gold amongst the party members as appropriate by Marcelet and Renatus, Buddy had the amazing idea to have us each get Gryphon leather jackets with the words, “Flavortown Gryphon Slayers” on the back. Along with extra t-shirts we could hand out later on.
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