Superfecta Betting Strategies - How to Place Superfecta
Exotic Bets : Exacta, Trifecta, & Superfecta 2020
Superfecta Horse Racing Betting - Box, Wheel, Payouts
How to Calculate .10 of a Superfecta | SportsRec
One Of The Gimmicks I Use And Have For Years
A while back, I mentioned that recording results at most tracks on the same day of week for a month can help you get a better feel of what you can expect. This, in turn, can help you be more prepared and even have more confidence when a week approaches that you are waiting to capitalize on, whether that be betting the favorites or finding something that offers value that will eventually release some of the stress and nervousness that most experience just prior to placing their bets. While I usually do not or can not use this angle on short meets like Saratoga, Keeneland, or Del Mar, I find it very helpful on the tracks with longer meets. However, this year, I have tracked the results for every Saturday on the Saratoga meet thus far, just to see if the angle works on this track like the others and the results is very telling, at least to me. But I will let others make that decision for themshelves. Through five weekends, there have been 45 races contested on Saturdays. Favorites have won 17 of 45 races for a strike rate of 38%. 2nd choices have won 11 of 45 races for a strike rate of 24%. 3rd choices have won 8 of 45 races for a strike rate of 18%. 4th choices or longer have won 9 of 45 for a strike rate of 20%. Total 45 of 45 races = 100%. First Saturday, July 13th--- Favorite won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%, returning $15.50 to win and $22.50 to place, including the ones that did not win but ran 2nd. 2nd choices won 5 of 11 races for a strike rate of 45%, returning a total of $36.10 for a $2 win bet of each, and $27.10 total on place betting the favorite, including ones that did not win but ran 2nd., One 4th choice, one 5th choice, and one 7th choice won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%. No third choice won a race this Saturday. There were four $1 exacta boxes with the top two choices combined for a strike rate of 36%, with all second choices finishing on top of the favorite in each, resulting in a total return of $37.70. There were three .50 trifecta boxes involving the top three choices(all 3 with the 2nd choice, favorite and third choice in that order) for a strike rate of 27%, resulting in a total return of $56.52. Betting the minimum allowed throughout this day the result were as followed; Winning Favorites(3) returned 15.50 and 22.50 to place(6) for a total of $38 on $44 risked for a loss of $6. 2nd choices winners(5) returned $36.10 and $27.50 to place(6) for a total of $63.60 on $44 risked for a net profit of $19.60. As mentioned above the exactas returned $37.70 on $22 total risked for a net profit of $15.70 and trifecta, as also mentioned above, returned $56.52 on $33 risked for a net profit of $23.52. Total risked betting the minimum on each wager(with a realistic shot at cashing) was $143 and total returned was $195.82. Total profit was $52.82 or a ROI of 31%. All prices were taken off equibase results charts. 1st Race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1 won, favorite finished 2nd @ 1.30-1, 4th choice finished 3rd @ 6.70-1. 2nd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1. 3rd Race: Favorite @ 1.40-1, 4th choice @ 4.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.35-1. Five horse field. 4th Race: Favorite @ 1.45-1, 7th choice(of 8) @ 19.10-1, 5th choice @ 9.70-1. 5th Race: Favorite @ 1.90-1, 3rd choice @ 4.80-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1. 6th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, 3rd choice @ 5.30-1, favorite @ 2.35-1. 7th Race: 7th choice(of 9) @ 10.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.35-1, favorite @ 2.20-1. 8th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.70-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.85-1. 9th race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 2.90-1. 10th Race: 5th choice @ 12.60-1, 6th choice @ 13.30-1, favorite @ .85-1. 11th Race: 4th choice @ 5.30-1, 7th choice @ 12.30-1, 3rd choice @ 4.70-1. On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money(1,2,3) in 10 of 11 races(3-4-3) or 90%. While that can be useful in exotic bets, you will need more to make your ROI on WP look decent. 2nd choices ran in the money 6 of 11 races(5-1-0) or 55%. Again reasonable but more is needed, at least for me. Third choices ran in the money a total of 6 of 11 races(0-2-4). An outsider(4th choice or longer) ran in the money 11 times(3-4-4) or 33% but only 8 of 11 different races or 73%, combining for 2 exactas, 2 trifectas with the heavy favorite 3rd in one and the third choice finishing third in the other. and a 7th choice on top of the second choice in second and favorite in third on another exacta/tri payoff. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2nd Saturday, July 20th--- Canceled due to heat wave and not included in results which would make this even more telling. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3rd Saturday, July 27----- Favorites won 3 of 12 races for a winning rate of 25%, returning $15.50 to win and $24.50 to place(7 total) for a total return of $40 on $48 risked, a loss of $8. 2nd choices won 2 of 12 races for a strike rate of 17%, returning $20.40 to win and 28.20 to place(5) on $48 risked, a profit of .60. Four $1 exacta boxes combining the two favorites for a strike rate of 33% and returned S44.70 on $24 risked, returning a profit of $20.70. Two .50 trifecta boxes came thru with the three top choices, for a strike rate of 17%, returning a total of $37.65 on $36 risked , for a net profit of $1.65. Betting each wager resulted in a total of $156 risked and a return of $168.95, a profit of $12.95. On this weekend, favorites ran in the money 9 of 12 races(3-4-2) or 75%. 2nd choices finished 1,2,3, in 8 of 12 races(2-5-1) or 67%. Third choices finished in the money 6 of 12 races(3-0-3) or 50%. Outsiders finished in the money 10 of 12 different races or 83%,and a total of 13 placings(4-4-5) out of 36 possibilities or 36%. 1st Race: Favorite @ 2.05-1, 2nd choice @ 3.45-1, 10th choice @ 37.75-1. 2nd Race: 3rd Choice @ 3.30-1, favorite @ 2.70-1, 4th choice @ 5.10-1. 3rd Race: 4th choice @ 6.60-1, favorite @ 2.60-1, 5th choice @ 7.50-1. 4th Race: Favorite @ .70-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 5.40-1. 5th Race: 2nd choice @ 3.10-1, favorite @ 3.00-1, 3rd choice @ 3.25-1. 6th Race: 8th choice @ 22.70-1. 4th choice @ 5.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.75-1. 7th Race: 2nd choice @ 5.10-1, 8th choice @ 13.50-1, favorite @ 2.40-1. 8th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.20-1, 4th choice @ 5.90-1, 6th choice @ 10.00-1. 9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.80-1, 6th choice @ 29.75(longest shot), favorite @ .50-1. 10th Race: 6th choice @ 13.60-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.80-1. 11th Race: 4th choice @ 4.60-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 2nd choice @ 2.70-1. 12th Race: favorite @ 2-1, 2nd choice @ 3.15-1, 9th choice @ 51.25-1. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4th Saturday, August 3----- Favorites won 5 of 11 races or 45%, returning $30.90 to win and 21.30 to place(6) for a return of $52.20 on the risk of $44 for a profit of $8.20. 2nd choices won 2 races or 18%, returning 19.40 to win and 14.70 to place(3) for a return of 34.10, a loss of $9.90 on $44 risked. There were no exactas combining the two favorites that paid off and only one .50 trifecta with the first three choices boxed that returned $10.60 on a total $55 risked, thereby resulting in losses of $44.40 on the two exotic wagers. Total return of $97.90 on $143 risked would have resulted in a loss of $45.10, basically wiping out all your winnings for the first month of Saratoga's meet. On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money 8 of 11 races(5-1-2) or 73% and even though most that ran well won, the net ROI was below acceptable because their win % is much higher than the long term average. Second choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-1-2) or 46% resulting in no exactas and only one trifecta box, which is extremely rare. 3rd choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-3-0) or 46%. But all was bet heavier than a third choice normally can be expected. Outsiders hit the board 14 times out of 33 possibilities(42%) but finished on top 2 of 11 or 18%, so bet even those two right resulted in a net loss. This was a weekend that betting superfectas really paid off, but extremely difficult to find the winning combinations, that is the ones that paid well. 1st Race: Favorite @ 2.40-1, 6th choice @ 9.90-1, 4th choice @ 8.30-1. 2nd Race: Co-2nd choice @ 4.20-1, 6th choice @ 12.90-1, 4th choice @ 7.50-1. 3rd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.50-1, 6th choice @ 17.80-1, 10th choice(longest) @ 25.50-1. 4th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.60-1, 5th choice @ 8.60-1, 6th choice @ 8.70-1. 5th Race: 4th choice @ 5.50-1, 2nd choice @ 2.20-1, favorite @ 1.75-1. 6th Race: 5th choice @ 10.70-1, favorite @ 1-1, 8th choice @ 26.50-1. 7th Race: Favorite @ 1.95-1, 3rd choice @ 3.60-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1. 8th Race: 3rd choice @ 3.25-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1. 9th Race: favorite @ .85-1, 4th choice @ 8.50-1, 2nd choice @ 4.60-1. 10th Race: favorite @ 2.20-1, 3rd choice @ 2.75-1, 2nd choice @ 2.60-1. 11th Race: favorite @ 3.05-1, 3rd choice @ 5.00-1, 5th choice @ 8-1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, August 10------ Now we have cycled and begin the second and last month of Saratoga meet this year. Favorites won 6 of 11 races or 55% and returned $33.20 to win and $24.30 to place(7), resulting in a return of $57.50 on $44 risked and a net profit of $13.50. Second choice won 2 of 11 or 18% and returned 13.10 for the win and 19.10 for the place(5) for a net return of $32.20 and a loss of $11.80 on the $44 risked. There were 3 exactas or 27% with the first two choices that returned $25.40, for a net profit of $3.40. There were also 3 trifectas involving the top three choices or 27% that returned $55.76 on the risk of $33 for a net profit of $22.76. On this Saturday, favorites finished in the money 8 of 11 races(6-1-1) or 73%. Second choices finished in the money 6 of 11 races(2-3-1) or 55%. Third choice finished in the money 6 of 11 races(3-0-3) or 55 %. Outsiders(4th choice or higher) hit the board 13 out of 33 possibilities or 39% but did not finish on top in any race of the 11. 1st Race: 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, favorite @ 1.65-1, 3rd choice @ 4.10-1. 2nd Race: favorite @ 3.30-1, 5th choice @ 5.40-1, 6th choice @ 7,70-1. 3rd race: favorite @ 1.25-1, 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, 3rd choice @ 4.30-1. 4th Race: favorite @ 2.30-1, 7th choice @ 18.40-1, 3rd choice @ 4.60-1. 5th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.05-1, 7th choice @ 22.80-1, 5th choice @ 11.60-1. 6th race: 3rd choice @ 2.95-1, 5th choice @ 11.80-1, 4th choice @ 9.20-1. 7th Race: favorite @ .60-1, co-4th choice @ 7.50-1, 6th choice @ 10.70. 8th Race: favorite @ 1.55-1, 2nd choice @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 8.20-1. 9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5-1, 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, favorite @ 1.85-1. 10th Race: favorite @ 1.60-1, 7th choice @ 19.10-1, 4th choice @ 4.30-1. 11th Race: 3rd choice @ 4.90-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1, 2nd choice @ 4.80-1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, I can not tell you if this information will help you. But I can tell you it helps me immensely at the tracks I have used it on. But I know exactly what help I am looking for before charting. Not only does it point me to the weeks that I probably can find value, it also points me to weeks where value will be limited and that is what helps me the most. The rest is on me to find the value and using this information gives me a ideal of who to use with them. The last time I charted a track, I went on an exacta and trifecta hitting streak by matching up week of month to the day I charted, on a four week interval. The only problem I have had using this information is when there is a five week in a given month, which normally occurs every third month. Then I have to make a slight adjustment or risk getting thrown off my pattern. It works for me and has for years, when I take time out and do the research. This is only one of several gimmicks that I use that gives me an added edge over the unprepared bettor, which is usually all I need.
**Just a little background: I have posted my father's Derby write up the past few years and it seems to get a good response. If anyone has any questions I can see if he can answer them. Good luck! "I have been writing this analysis of the Kentucky Derby since 1983, but as I sit down to write this year’s analysis, I am awed by the fact that this will be my 50th consecutive Derby. So, from that standpoint, this write up is very special. First an overview of this year’s field: -The field will consist of 20 colts, 19 from America and one from Japan. -These colts will be trained by 16 different trainers, only 3 of these trainers have previously won the Derby. The other 13 will be trying to win it for the first time. -The colts entered in the race are a lightly raced group, much like last year’s entrants. However, this year’s colts are more lightly raced than last year’s – an average of 5.5 career starts (last year’s colts averaged 5.9 career starts before the Derby). -Last year I spoke about the way trainers were being very cautious in the number of races they are giving their charges. Well that trend is continuing this year. This year 10 colts have fewer than 6 career starts, half the field! -Additionally, 8 colts are going into the Derby with only 2 starts as a 3-YO. Back in the good old days (the 1980’s and 90’s), these lightly raced colts’ chances of winning the race were pretty slim, but today this is the norm among Derby entrants. -While the field is light on experience, they are long on earnings – 3 of them are already millionaires, a testament to the lofty purses colts are running for these days. I will now begin my analysis of all 20 colts (no fillies are entered this year), listing them in the order of points they have accumulated going into the Derby. But please remember that the order I analyze them in is probably not the order that I see them finishing the race. Tacitus: This son of Tapit is one of two colts in the race trained by Bill Mott who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby win. Tacitus has only 4 lifetime starts, including 2 this year. Many people felt that his win in the 1-1/8-mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the best prep race of any of the 3-YOs this year. The winner of the Wood has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 11 times, but the last Wood/Derby winner was in 2000. It seems like the “bloom is off the rose” as far as Wood winners repeating in Louisville. Though he has only raced 4 times in his career, his speed figures have increased as the distances have gotten longer – a good sign for a colt trying a 1-1/4 miles race in the Derby. I am a little concerned that he is untested against Grade 1 company (the Wood was a Grade 2 race), but I am sure he will take some play from the bettors come Derby day. I may have to use him in my exotic bets ( bets other than win, place & show) in the Derby. Omaha Beach: This colt has never been out of the money in 7 career starts. However, it took him 5 tries to break his maiden – not necessarily an encouraging sign. He has been the favorite in 6 of his 7 races, so he is somewhat of a “money burner”. However, that being said, he may very well be the favorite in the Derby and he gets the services of Mike Smith who had to choose between Omaha Beach and Roadster. I believe that the betting money will follow “Big Money Mike” on Derby day. Note that Mike Smith has only won 2 Kentucky Derbies from probably 20 or more mounts – not a good record for such an established rider. A couple of things that I don’t like about Omaha Beach; he began his career with 3 races on the grass before switching to dirt, 2 of his 3 wins have come on sloppy tracks with his other win by a narrow nose on a fast dirt surface. On the other hand, he has beaten proven colts in Game Winner (last year’s 2-YO champion) and Improbable (winner of the GR 1 Los Alamitos Futurity). His trainer, Richard Mandella, will be trying to win his 1st Derby (he is 0 for 6 in the race) with this colt and I have to say that he has as good a chance as anybody to win. Vekoma: Another lightly raced colt with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year, and, like Tacitus, he is untested against Grade 1 company. Trained by George Weaver, who is seeking his 1st Derby win, this colt won the BlueGrass Stakes beating Win Win Win and Signalman – two colts he may face in Louisville. The BlueGrass has produced 10 Derby winners, but none since 1991. He is a well-travelled colt, each of his starts has come over a different track. I have always liked this colt, he has a good late turn of foot (how fast he is) and being out of Candy Ride, the Derby distance should not be a problem. However, he has a weird way of “moving”; in the stretch he seems to “paddle” his left front leg. This may not serve him well in the long stretch at CD. Also, his trainer does not have a very good record in graded stakes competition, winning at only a 6% rate. I think he will present some good odds come Derby day and just might be a must use in the exotics. Plus Que Parfait: This colt’s claim to fame is that he won the $2.5M UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He is trained by Brendan Walsh who is another trainer seeking his 1st Derby win. I’ve observed that horses that fly half way around the world to run in Dubai, have a pretty hard time getting back into racing shape upon their return from that trip. He got the big money in Dubai but I don’t see him getting any money in the Derby so I will pass. Roadster: Roadster is one of Bob Baffert’s three possible Derby entrants and the colt that Mike Smith didn’t choose to ride in the Derby. This son of Quality Road (a very good sire), who will be ridden by Florent Geroux, is also lightly raced with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year. He did win the Santa Anita Derby over Game Winner and Instagrand and the Santa Anita Derby has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including three since 2012 – Justify, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another. This colt overcame some breathing issues after surgery last year and had been ridden by Mike Smith in all his career starts, so when Mike chose Omaha Beach over Roadster it must have been a surprise to Baffert & Co. Obviously a very talented colt who might be the 2nd betting choice in the race, but I am unsure at this point how I will play him. By My Standards: This colt has 5 career starts and took four tries to break his maiden – not very encouraging. He is trained by Bret Calhoun, who is also seeking his first Derby win. He did win the Louisiana Derby at odds of 22-1 beating Spinoff and Sueno. However, the Louisiana Derby has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby winners, the last one being Grindstone in 1996. I am a little concerned about his ability to get the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby based on his breeding. I can’t really say that I would recommend anyone bet him to win so I will pass. Maximum Security: This undefeated colt, from 4 lifetime starts, began racing in December last year in claiming and optional claiming races (I guess his connections didn’t feel he was that good) and was not really tested until he ran, and won, the Florida Derby in a very good time. In that race he beat Code of Honor, Bodexpress and Bourbon War. All his wins have come by good margins (3-1/2 to 18 lengths. He is trained by Jason Servis who is also looking for his first Derby win. He has only gone two turns in a race once in 4 tries and has been ridden by 3 different jockeys in 4 races, again, something that is not that encouraging. I don’t think I will bet him. Game Winner: Last year’s 2-YO champion has won three Grade 1 races in 6 lifetime starts so he is a very good colt. He has never been out of the money and his two losses were by a nose and a ½ length. He lost the Santa Anita Derby to Roadster and the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach, two colts who will be highly regarded come Derby day. He is the second of Bob Baffert’s three probable entries. All three have the credentials to win the Derby and he has a win over the CD track last November in the Breeders’ Cup (always a plus to have a win over the CD surface). In a race full of speed, he has a tactical advantage in that he can get good position and lay off the pace until they hit the top of the stretch. On a slightly down note, he lost his 2 starts this year, each as the favorite, after an undefeated 2-YO campaign. Though he lost to good colts (see above) I am not sure that Bob had him cranked up for either of those efforts. He will likely be a reasonable price in the Derby, and I may have to take a long hard look at him before I bet. Code of Honor: A somewhat inconsistent colt, he has 2 wins in 5 lifetime starts, but 2 of his losses were in Grade 1 company. He has been beaten by Maximum Security and Bodexpress in the Florida Derby after he won the Fountain of Youth stakes over Bourbon War and Vekoma. He is trained by “Shug” McGaughey who won the 2013 Derby with Orb, and knows what it takes to win the Derby. His breeding is such that he could run all day so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. He will probably be a double digit price in the Derby and I am a little hesitant to do more than maybe put him in a trifecta or superfecta box. Haikal: Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin this colt could be Kiaran’s 1St Derby winner. Yeah, read that again - Kiaran has never won the Kentucky Derby. However, I don’t think this is his year to score that elusive victory. This colt was beaten by Tacitus and Tax in the Wood, 2 colts he will face in the Derby. Haikal has always been in the money, in 5 career starts, but has not run outside Aqueduct. I am suspect of a colt who has wintered in NY – he can’t be that good if they didn’t ship to FLA for the winter. I will pass, on the win bet but maybe find a place for him in the exotics. Improbable: Bob Baffert’s 3rd entry has finished in the money in all of his 5 career starts and has a win over the CD track. He won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December before going to Arkansas for his 2 starts this year. In the Rebel, at Oaklawn, he was beaten by Long Range Toddy and then he was a close 2nd in the Arkansas Derby getting beat by Omaha Beach. He will face both colts in the Derby. His running style (tracking the pace) should suit him well. However, I question whether he can get the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby as he is out of City Zip, a sprinter. Anyway, he is a good colt with a very good trainer so I will have to take a long, hard look at him before deciding whether to bet him or not. War of Will: One of three colts in the race who have 8 lifetime starts, this Mark Casse trainee began his career with 4 starts on the turf before breaking his maiden at CD over a sloppy track. Casse has yet to win the Derby and I have doubts that this colt will give him his first Derby victory. This colt should not have any trouble with the distance, but he took a bad beating as the 4-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby losing by 12 lengths to the likes of By My Standards, Spinoff and Suneo. His connections have always though highly of him. He was entered in three graded stakes races as a 2-YO even though he was a maiden, but I won’t be betting him in the Derby. Long Range Toddy: Another colt with 8 lifetime starts, he will try to get Steve Asmussen his first Derby win. However, he was badly beaten in the Arkansas Derby over a sloppy track by Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House, although he did beat Improbable in the Rebel. I believe that he is not as good as he looks on paper and I don’t think he will get the Derby distance based on his breeding. It should be noted that he has never been the favorite in any of his 8 lifetime starts. I will likely bypass him in favor of others. Tax: A consistent colt who has finished in the money in all his 5 career starts. He began his career in claiming races, including one at CD, and was claimed for $50K in his 2nd start by his trainer Danny Gargan who is an up and coming trainer. It is rare that a former claimer runs in, let alone wins, the Derby. Tax’s last three races have been at a 1-1/8 miles all at Aqueduct so he should not have any trouble handling the Derby distance. He was beaten in the Wood by Tacitus, one of the likely Derby favorites, but was not able to get to the winner in the stretch. So, this is a colt who has plenty of potential, but I have to wonder if his trainer is ready to take on the big boys in Louisville. He will probably be double digit odds in the Derby and a 4th place finish might be as good as he can do. Cutting Humor: One of the two Todd Pletcher colts in the race, this colt sports 2 wins in 6 lifetime starts and I have to wonder why Todd thinks he should enter this colt. He is not that consistent having been beaten nearly 9 lengths as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, behind Sueno and Long Range Toddy, and barely hanging on to beat Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby. He also lost to Bourbon War in an optional claiming race in January. This colt will be a longshot in the Derby and I will take a pass. Win Win Win: This colt has never finished out of the money in 6 lifetime starts for trainer Michael Trombetta, who is another trainer seeking his first Derby win. Trombetta has not won a graded stakes race in his career so why would he prevail in America’s greatest race? Also, I doubt that this colt can handle the distance of the race based on his breeding and the fact that his 2 wins have come in one turn races. He has been beaten By Vekoma in the BlueGrasss Stakes and Tacitus and Outshine in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is always well backed at the windows so in some regards he is a “money burner” and I see him as a longshot in the race. Another one I will pass on. Country House: Bill Mott’s second entry, this colt has only a maiden win in 6 lifetime starts so why is he in here? He has been beaten by Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno in the Louisiana Derby and War of Will in the Risen star. If he can’t win the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies how is he going to win the Kentucky Derby? He seems to have trouble getting out of the gate and he lost ground in the stretch of his last two 1-1/8 miles races. Another longshot and another colt I will pass on. Gray Magician: I doubt that Peter Miller will secure his first Derby win with this colt. In fact he might be the longest shot on the board when the gates open. He has one win in 8 career starts, was beaten by Plus Que Parfait in Dubai (you know how I feel about horses going to Dubai to race), was 5th in an optional claiming race in January and does not have the breeding to get the 1-1/4 miles. Again, I will pass. Spinoff: Todd Pletcher’s 2nd entry in the race, this colt has hit the board in all 4 of his career starts. He was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards, after grabbing the lead in mid-stretch. In that race he finished ahead of Sueno and War of Will. His speed figures have improved with every start as the distances have increased. He is a son of Hard Spun, a horse who ran 2nd in the Derby so I think that the distance should not be a problem for him in the Derby. He will likely be double digit odds in the Derby and might be a sneaky price horse in the tri or superfectas. However, I don’t think I will be playing him in the exotics as there are other colts that I prefer over him. Master Fencer: This colt got into the Derby by way of a racing series in Japan. He certainly seems like he can handle the distance as all of his 6 career starts in Japan have been at distances of a mile or longer, including two 1-1/4 mile grass races. All that being said, I have no idea what his competition was in Japan and I will have to pass on this colt. In the event that there is a scratch or two before the derby, these two other colts might get into the race. Bodexpress: He is trained by Gustavo Delgado, a trainer I know nothing about who has only started 36 horses in races this year. Bodexpress is still a maiden after 5 starts. The only reason he might get in the Derby is that he ran 2nd in the Florida Derby at odds of 71-1. His breeding suggests that he will not be able to handle the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby. Three maidens have won the derby, the last one being Brokers Tip in 1933. Eleven maidens have started in the Derby since 1937 and the best finish of those was 8th place. Can’t even fathom betting on him – even with someone else’s money. Signalman: This Ken McPeek trainee has been fairly consistent in his 7 lifetime starts, being in the money in 6 of those races. However, he has been beaten by 7 other Derby entrants in his races, but he has been in the money in 3 races over the CD surface, including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club and a 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he gets in, he will likely be at double digit odds, and I might have to give him a long, hard look in the exotics. Now the moment of truth, how will I play the race? It will be tough to leave Omaha Beach out of any discussion as to whom might win the race, but I have concerns about him as stated in my analysis. I have always liked Vekoma, but again, I think that his way of moving through the stretch may not serve him well. I will probably make a win bet on either Tacitus or Game Winner with a slight edge to Game Winner. So, my bets might look something like this - a win on Game Winner, an exacta box using Game Winner, Tacitus, Roadster and Omaha Beach. I will play a 5-colt trifecta box with these four plus Vekoma. OK, I know what you’re thinking, “This is a very chalky group of bets” I know that but the goal is to cash tickets and with this group of colts it is hard to look past the ones I have listed to find a “live longshot”. This is a very competitive race. Any one of 7 or 8 colts could easily win, so as usual I reserve the right to change my mind and make different bets than those listed above. Hopefully everyone will enjoy the event and maybe I will come home a WINNER!!!!!!!!!!
I have not done much good this year at Saratoga. The days I have chosen to bet this track this year has been the days I should have looked elsewhere, as some horses I liked have came thru at tracks I normally try to concentrate at least partially on. However, this weekend is mostly favorite day at most tracks, so while I wait for the tracks to cycle back around to the weeks I want to bet them, I will try to break out of my funk at Saratoga by betting a little less and spreading a little more. I have never try what I am about to try at any track in more than 40 years of betting, so you may want to proceed with caution. However, I am not one to keep trying the same old thing over and over when it is not working at a particular track. As I was researching my past bets at Saratoga this week, I saw a glaring weakness that can be rectify and made to work for me. While I am satisfied with my exacta box and WP bets, I could not find even one wager where I cash a trifecta and/or superfecta that paid near a grand or more, a type of wager that is successful for me at most other tracks. Race 1: This race looks like it will come down to four horses for the win to me. 3)Teachable Moment(5-2) Brown trains and the one to beat. 10)South West Bay(9-2) Ward trains. Sire was sprint champion in England in 2013 & 2014 and South West Bay is a member of his first crop. Broodmare sire, Sixties Icon is a G1 winner and from the first crop of Galileo. 11)I'm Looking Up(8-1) Dallas Stewart trains and he is a son of the speedy Speightstown. 2nd place finisher(favorite in this race) of his last was my 45-1 special first time starter that also ran second in his first start on Clark H. day at CD and I'm Looking Up simply could not run down any of the three who broke out in front of him in his last. 5)Knockout Punch(10-1) Hough trains and while his works are ok, he will need to run faster in this race to beat some of these. I will box these four on a dime super, then using a key wager, will add 2 more underneath and spread a little for a save and a bomb payoff. I will use 2)Azzedine(30-1) and 7)Mo Fun(8-1) in the 3rd and 4th spots. My Bets: $5 Ex Box 10-11(Total $10), $1 Tri Box 3-10-11(Total $6), .50 Tri Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-10-11($6 Total), .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11(Total $2.40), .10 Super Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11(Total $7.20), .50 Super Key 11 with 3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10(Total $9). Total Risk This Race($40.60). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2nd Race: I only like two horses in here and will only bet an exacta box. 5)Bossy Bride(8-1) is the one I like to win but I don't like her enough to risk WP money on. 3)Doll Collection(3-1) is the reason I will not risk WP money on my top choice, but I have risk money on her, to little avail. She is bred to run though and it is only a matter of time before she graduates against this type. My Bets: $5 Ex Box 3-5. Total Risk($10). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3rd Race: Another race that looks up for grabs, but also the type of race that usually offer serious money if you can pick it correctly. I think the win will come down to two horses, both decent odds but underneath will be the tricky part. 7)Shekky Shebaz(15-1) Adam Rice, the nephew of Linda Rice, trains. He has given the call to Jose Ortiz, who normally rides for Linda when she has a live horse. Third start this year but moves from the AWT at Presque Isle Down to the grass off two bullet works. 3)Soul P Say(12-1) was claimed out of his last and tries the grass for the first time after 23 starts on dirt. What is amazing about that is his sire, Soldat, a son of War Front, broke his maiden in the G3 With Anticipation S on grass, then ran 2nd in both the G2 Pilgrim S after a troubled trip & G2 BC Juvenile Turf(first running), looking like the winner in deep stretch before Pluck blew by him late. This is where bloodlines helps me the most, by identifying horse that spends a large part of their career at the wrong distance or the wrong surface. He qualifies on both. 10)Sir Ballantine(12-1) is another I will use underneath. While he has tried grass on three occasions with a third the best effort, they came at distances of 1 1/16 miles twice and 1 5/16 mile once but he ran an even race in all three. His only three wins against winners came at 7 furlongs and 1 mile twice, though he has spent most of his career running longer because of his late running style. But his pedigree suggests he will do much better at a mile or less. 2)Frisky Magician(7-2) is another who will be trying late and could actually win this. Trainer Jason Servis drops him into a spot where he has a chance of winning on paper but is willing to lose him via the claiming box, an indication he may have lost a step or two. Otherwise, why risk losing a horse that was just reclaimed by the previous owner two starts back? 5)Mission Command(8-1) is the last one I will include underneath. He has won on grass twice and trainers has used the dirt each of the last two years to get him in top shape. His best race last year came in his fourth start of the year on grass when second, the race he was claimed out of by current owners, but he had won his last start in an off the turf allowance race in 2017, cycled out of form and returned to his best form in that effort. Then he had three previous starts on dirt to begin this year before the break and was making his first grass start of the year in his last, also his fourth start this year. My Bets: $5 WP 7($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-7($6), .50 Tri Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($9), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10(2.40), .10 Super Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($3.60). Total Risk($41). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 4: I will bet this race the way I normally bet because maiden special weights races is where I have my most success at Saratoga. There are several in here that was purchased for a lot of money at auctions. 5)Kowalski(4-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start and after breaking poorly, he made a good run to get into contention before flatting out against a runaway winner who had a perfect trip. Two good works and with a better break, should make him the one to beat. 9)Sonneman(8-1) is my choice for second. He is a first time starter with some above average works. 1)Shoplifted and 1A)Soviet(8-5) are coupled and both are first time starters. 2)No Bad Days(20-1) is my choice for fourth. My Bets: $5 WP 5($10), $5 Ex Box 5-9($10), Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-5-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 5 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9($3). Total Risk $31.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5th Race: I will use six horses that I believe has a shot. 10) Dream Friend(5-1), 4)Combatant(8-1), 5)Prioritize(10-1), 1)C.C. Rider(12-1), 9)Keep Quiet(6-1), 8)Westerland(15-1). My Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10($4.80), .50 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10($4). Total Risk $27.20. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6th Race: I will use 5 horses in here. 3)Tequila Sunday(30-1), 5)Flashpackinbarbie(3-1), 12)Collegeville Girl(12-1), 1)Makin' Out(6-1), 9)More Mischief(9-2). My Bets: $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-12($10), $1 Tri Box 3-5-12($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-12($2.40), .10 Super 3-5-12 with 3-5-12 with 1-3-5-9-12 with 1-3-5-9-12($3.60). Total Risk $42.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: Another 6 horses I will center my risk around. 7)Hard Sting(12-1), 4)Proven Strategies(10-1), 6)Are You Kitten Me(6-1), 9)Fame To Famous(20-1), 5) Economic Policy(5-2), 2)Blanket Of Roses(6-1), And if the 11)Eagerly(7-2) draws in, I will drop one of the latter two and replaced with this one. My Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Key 6-7 with 4-6-7-9 with 4-6-7-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-6-7-9($2.40), .10 Super Key 6-7 with 4-6-7 with 4-5-6-7-9 with 2-4-5-6-7-9($3.60). Total Risk $48. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: Normal Bets. 3)Puttheglassdown(12-1), 7)Frosted Grace(10-1), 8) Dark N Cloudy(10-1), 9)Overdeliver(3-1). $5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 3-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk $34.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9th Race: Normal Bets. 6)Diamond Oops(12-1), 3)Imperial Hint(3-1), 4)Firenze Fire(9-2), 7)Do Share(15-1). $5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-6($6), .10 Super Box 3-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 4-6 with 4-6-7 with 4-6-7($4) Total Risk $32.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10th Race: Will use 5 horses in this race. 3) Ya Primo(8-1), 10) Channel Cat((12-1), 1)Arklow(9-2), 6)Highland Sky(20-1), 2) Sadler's Joy(6-1). $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 3 with 1-10 with 1-2-6-10 with 1-2-6-10($6). Total Risk $44.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11th Race: Abbreviated Normal Bets. 4)Global Campaign(2-1), 3)Milos(15-1), 5)Tacitus(7-5), 1)Laughing Fox(15-1). $5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-5($2.40). Total Risk $18.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12th Race: I will use 5 horses. 9)No Mo Promises(15-1), 10) Givethemanacigar(20-1), 8)Coach Villa(30-1), 5)Surge Pricing(2-1), 4)My Macho(5-1). $5 WP 9($10), $5 Ex Box 9-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-9-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-9-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 9-10 with 4-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10($2.40). Total Risk $30.80. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These will be my risks for this weekend. By my estimates, I will risk $400.40 and this at least gives me a variety of bets which I can recoup the initial investment and make a grand or so, if the horses I like finally decides to wake up and gives an honest effort. If they don't, I will turn the page and give another effort next week, like I have always done. I go through slumps every year and always have, but the difference now and 20 years ago is I now recognize my slumps and have the patience to wait for the signals that my slump is over. But I would not know for sure unless I take minor chances and bet like I normally bet.
I am going to like a lot of horses that will get good odds in today's races. You can use your own judgement whether you will want to take a risk or not, but that is really my best game. I struggle the most when I try to put too many favorites in the mix or when the races results in a lot of favorites doing what they are supposed to do. While I am use to waiting until my horses runs the way I expect them to, I can also understand others who might get impatient. The rewards always outweighs the frustration but it took me years to figure that part out. And it will anyone else also that plays the races the way I do. But value is what will eventually determine whether you win or lose over the long run, another fact that I spent years before I realized it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1st Race: 7)Contendress(9-2) Has made two starts, first race tried to contest the early pace and faded. 2nd race, laid off the pace and tried to make up late ground but finished fairly even. Now adds blinkers and looks fast enough to outbreak the favorites if the blinkers helps. The unknown is the other first time starters who shows speed in their works. Her sire, Competitive Edge, a son of Ky Derby winner Super Saver, broke his maiden in his first start, in wire to wire fashion finishing clear by 10+ lengths at Saratoga in 109 4/5. 4)Mysteriously(8-1) First time starter that has some good works for debut. Both sire, Tiznow and broodmare sire, Bernardini, were better in middle distance races, her 2nd dam, Burmilla, a daughter of Storm Cat, won her first two starts, both at 6 furlongs and both in 110 flat at two different tracks. With her, the break will be the key. 3)Josephine Baker(9-5) has made one start and set an uncontested pace but faded when challenged. However, her trainer is leading the trainer standing comfortably this year and will have to include. Also will run with lasix for the first time in her 2nd start and both her works since were more likely maintenance breezes to keep her fit. 1)Chez Paree(3-1) Has made one start and contested the pace throughout but could not get by the wire to wire winner while clear of the rest. Two works since that effort, including her last which suggests she should take a step forward. Broodmare sire, Defrere, was always overshadowed by his full brother, Dehere, a champion 2 YO Colt and sire of Take Charge Lady, among others, but both were known for siring foals that had high speed. Definitely not out of it, but will have more front running speed to contend with. Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7(2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $24.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2nd Race: 6)Lyman(20-1) has made one start and trailed the field. However, he tossed his head at the start, was leaned on in the early stages by the runaway winner and simply gave others to much of a head start, especially in a race that was that quick. Now two more works since, one easy and the other that shows he has some fronting speed. A better break and a cleaner trip should put him over the top. 1)High Heater(6-1) First time starter. Trainer is 10% lifetime winning trainer and normally prepares his trainees with a series of slow works. To me, that six furlong work just before his first effort should give him plenty of wind. High Heater has shown flashes of speed in a couple of his works and his bloodlines suggests he should be high speed. His sire, Creative Cause, broke his maiden in his debut at the old Hollywood Park in 56 4/5 seconds for five furlongs and took the Best Pal S in his 2nd start in a 115 3/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs. 5)Top Justice(12-1) Another first time starter. He has some good works for his debut, including a 6 furlong work like my second choice that should help. While his trainer has a 8% lifetime winning percentage in his ninth year as a trainer, he trains mostly cheap stock and spots them aggressively, and has banked more than $7M without a big name runner. Top Justice sire, Danza won a maiden race in his first start, the Arkansas Derby in his 4th career start and finished 3rd to California Chrome in the 2014 Ky Derby, his career finale. 9)Fast Dreamer(9-2)Another first time starter. He also has some good works and bloodlines. However, trainer stop on him for almost a month before putting in his two best work for his first start. But the stoppage as he was approaching being ready always raises a red flag, because it usually indicates a minor ailment or sickness, so I will include underneath mostly. Bets: $10 WP 6($20), $5 Ex Box 1-6($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-5-6-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9($3). Total Risk $41.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3rd Race: 6)Detour(15-1) She has made for starts and has not placed in any. However, her trainer has been trying to get her back on grass since her first effort and looks like he might get that opportunity here. Her last two was switched to the AWT which is probably not the surface she wants. Her sire, Bellamy Road, smashed the stakes record in the 2005 Wood Memorial and came 1/5 second off Riva Ridge's track record set when he was 4 YO in 1973. Detour's female family has quite a bit of grass influence. Three works since her last effort for a trainer who has more success on grass than the AWT. 3)Just A Look(12-1) First time starter that has some good works and nice bloodlines for grass. Dam won 3 of 7 lifetime starts, all three on grass, including a listed stakes, with a late kick in Southern California. While her works has been a little inconsistent for my taste, her trainer will sneak a live one through, on occasion. 7)Meghan(5-1) She has made 4 lifetime starts, with one third her only board finish. However, she has had the same problem as my top choice, in that her trainer has tried to get her back on grass after her first effort, and in fact, this makes the four race in a row that they faced each other. While she has beaten my top choice all three times, it was by a nose, nose and 1/4 length, on surfaces she should have had a small advantage on. 5)Quality Too Spare(6-1) She has made three starts, with a third in her last her best effort. While I normally try to find a trainer who has a little more success than this one(no wins yet), she has enough speed to clear early and could hang on for a minor reward, depending on what how bad the others might fade. Bets: $10 WP 6($20), Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-7($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7($3). Total Risk $41.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4th Race: 7)Blue Sky Kowboy(20-1) Has made 3 starts this year after an seven month break. Won his 2nd start, though it was restricted to state bred and was his first other than grass win and then ran poor against in a state bred stakes race, also moved to the AWT from grass. Though his recent stats shows otherwise, trainer has more than held his own with grass runners throughout his career. Just believe he is ready to give his best effort this year. 6)My Bariley(4-1) Has made 4 starts since his last winning effort, with two against graded stakes horse and another in a stakes which he has previously won. Also holds a recent class edge against these with a good work since his last effort. The one to beat. 8)Cuestion De Tempo(5-1) Has made 4 starts since an eight month break, with his last arguably the best effort since he returned. He has recorded two good works since his last and a mile fits him better than others in here. 3)Marzo(9-2) Has made 5 starts this year, winning his fourth start as an odds on favorite, most likely because others seen his yearling purchase price of $1M. However, that buyer(Coolmore) has long decided he did not have the ability they originally thought he had and decided to cut their losses and move on for $35K. That win was in a conditioned allowance, so I doubt he can do much better than a minor share, though his trainer has turned around the fortunes of several horses. This, so far, does not look like one of those times, though. Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri Key 6-7 with 6-7 with 8($6), .10 Super Box 3-6-7-8($2.40). Total Risk $44.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5th Race: 8)Jazz Channel(5-1) Made one start on AWT and showed speed to top of stretch before tiring slightly. Now switches to grass which is the surface she should prefer most. One maintenance work since that effort should help make the forward move necessary to compete in this race. Her sire, English Channel, ran his best races on grass and most of his foals seems to like grass much better than AWTs or dirt. Her broodmare sire, Bernardini is better known for his abilities on dirt and his best foals has followed suit, though a few had shown they like the grass more. 9)Summer Day(12-1) First time starter. Has the workout pattern that has proven most beneficial to me. Both her sire, Sky Mesa, and her broodmare sire, Empire Maker, were G1 winners on dirt but never tried the grass. However, both their pedigrees suggests they could possibly have been even better on that surface, judging by the foals they have produce. Trainer normally only wins a few every year from limited runners, but Summer Day's 2nd dam, G3 SW Summer Mis, was his top runner and her daughter, Summer Again, spent her career in Illinois under his care, though neither was tried on grass. 5)Fall Moon(12-1) First time starter. Also has the workout pattern that seems to work best, working consistently every 7 days. Her sire, Lea, was a G1 SW on dirt and a G3 SW and G1 Placed on grass. However, he has Giant's Causeway and Galileo cross, so both surfaces have suited him. Broodmare sire, Quality Road, also was a G1 SW on dirt but his foals have performed well on both, especially around the mile distances. 2)Aunt Dorothy(9-2) Made one start and finished third. Pedigree fits nicely against these. One work since that effort which was a little too fast for my liking, but trainer tends to make right call more often than not, especially for grass. About a second slower and would have been my second choice and biggest perceived threat to my top choice. Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 8-9($10), $1 Tri Box 5-8-9($6), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 With 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9. Total Risk $44.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6th Race: 1)Buttered Noodles(8-1) Has made one start. Tracked front runners, made a bid for the lead at the half then flatten out and faded on the AWT. Has two good works, including a 6 furlong work that is rarely seen in racing today, but used to be an angle as effective as first time lasix when a vet had to determine if bleeding occurred during a race or workout. Buttered Noodles's sire is City Zip, sire of known sprinters/milers on all surfaces. His dam, Flowerbomb, is 1/2 sister to Materiality and My Miss Sophia. She won twice in 14 starts, both at 1 1/16 mile, an AWT maiden race and N/W 2 allowance on grass. Recklessness(15-1) Has made one start. Broke slowly and pick up horses while not making a dent into the runaway winner margin but just missed catching the runner up. Even good works before that effort proved futile. No works since but returns in 2 weeks, so another work would have been a little too much. A better start is expected. His sire, Midshipman, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity & G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, beating Pioneerof The Nile in the latter while landing 2 YO Champion Colt Award and is a 1/2 brother to the dam of Frosted. His dam made one start on grass and like her son, broke slowly and made up a little ground. 2nd dam won 5 of 18 starts, all at mid distances on dirt including a small stakes race. 9)Mister Not Funny(12-1) Made one start in the same race as my top choice. His works before that effort signaled a mid pack finish was most likely and that is where he finished after break slowly and waiting until the stretch to give his best effort, in a distance much to short and likely not best surface either. He goes with first time lasix in here and a surface and distance that he should perform better in, off two similar works as before his first effort. Still, improvement is expected and could surprise. 7)The Gray Blur(5-1) Made one start and exits out of the race as two of my other choices in here, which I normally will not even consider putting that many together from same effort. However, he ran an even race and basically was eliminated at the start with a less than ideal break for him. His sire, Fast Anna, hails from the same sire line(El Prado) and dam line(Kitten's First) as Kitten's Joy. The Gray Blur's dam line will also help him on this surface. Two works, including a solid one and the addition of blinkers could be all he needs to take this field from gate to wire. Beware! Bets: $10 WP 1($20), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-9($6), $3 Tri Key 1 with 3-9 with 3-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-7-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 1 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9($3). Total Risk $47.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: 4)Rustic Rick(30-1) He returned from a 7 month break, took a few races to get in his best form and then sprung a major upset two starts back in his fourth effort since his return. Has three lifetime efforts on grass, all at one mile, but was asked to face much too tough in his last in his first start against winner. This will be his first time getting a firm turf with competition that simply matches his ability at best. His sire, Country Day, won several sprint grass stakes but also finished 2nd in the 2011 BC Turf Sprint. Dam, Ric Rac, won 4 of 19 lifetime starts, all 4 on grass at either a mile or 1 1/16 mile. No works since his first effort against winners, but returns in two weeks. 2)Jackfruit(20-1) Also broke his maiden 2 back on the AWT and then entered against winners in the same type class level in next. But he finally gets the surface he was really bred for, though he takes a couple steps up in class. His sire, Get Stormy, was a multiple G1 SW, earning more than $1.6M in his racing career. Dam, Ride 'Em Cowgirl, won her only stakes in an off the turf on the AWT, but also ran 2nd in a grass stakes race. This family traces much deeper than these two, but this is enough to let me come to my decision on whether to include or not. 12)Bird(30-1) Made one start and broke his maiden in same class as my 2nd choice. He has a pedigree that suggests he will perform pretty good on grass also, though not as close up in his bloodlines as my choice above him. Sire, Gio Ponti, was a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time grass champion in the U.S. Bird's 3rd dam, Oh What A Dance, produced Heavenly Prize, a G! champion herself and producer of Pure Prize and Good Reward, both foals of Storm Cat and better known for their grass runners. 3)True Loyalty(6-1) He will be working on his fourth start since a 10 month break, with improvement noted in his last. This is one of my angle horse that I will normally not bet against, but I like the others as good or better. While he has no works since his last and comes into this race off a three week break, that is borderline for me to consider him. Exercise helps horses first to get in racing shape and then to maintain that fitness. This will be one race that I will be sure to box a dime superfecta and "waste" $2.40. It this type of payoff potential that I have always mentioned over and over. The potential for a dime super returning $7-8K makes it a bet I will not let pass me by, but others can. Bets: $10 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-4-12($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12($6). Total Risk $44.40. --------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: 2)Dazzling Truths(20-1) Made four starts this year with a third his best effort. Here is a horse that actually proves what wotks can do to your fitness and form. His workouts pattern has been spotty and ineffective. 2 works in 23 days to prepare for first start in almost 5 months. Then wheeled back in 9 days and 18 days, which is ok but on outer edge of moving a horse forward. Then a 53 day layoff with 2 works a month apart and he ran flat. So the only reason I will use him in here is most seems like they would rather sprint and he wheels back yet again in 11 days, which is enough time to recuperate but still have what conditioning he got from his last effort left. Edge in a wide open field. 4)Can't Hide From Me(7-2) Unbeaten in three starts but now changes barn and has one slow work since his last effort. Not sure he wants a mile distance but his connections picked a good spot to find out. However, while field is fairly weak, he is be facing his toughest test yet. 1)Sovereign Impact(20-1) Claimed out of his last start by connections who tends to get the best results from their trainees. He has won 2 sprints, one at 5 furlongs and one at 6 furlongs, both on Indiana Downs speed favoring track that often helps front runners look better than they actually are. Has had very little impact in races away from that track. One fairly decent work since the claim. 11) Dabo(5-1) Only one in field that has proven that this distance is within his scope, but both wins have came in races restricted to state breds. His maiden win at 6 furlongs came against open breds and his last to first effort saw him beat my top choice in the first start of his career. He has several good efforts while overmatched in Turfway Park 3 YO preps for the Ky Derby. Sharp right now as he wheels back in two weeks. Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-2-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-11($2.40). Total Risk $18.40. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9th Race: 6)Magic Wand(3-1) Wanted no part of Enable in last, but not many does. She has some races that makes her a contender for the win. Only difference,is she has tried the boys in top races on several occasions over here and ran respectable in them. like her stablemate, she contested Europe's biggest 3 YO fillies races last year. 1)Fleeting(5-2) Making first U.S. start after running in top 3 YO fillies races in Europe. Nicely bred horse who is bred along the same lines as the favorite in here. Only trainer that could possibly give Brown fits with his own handling of his fillies stars, though he is better in Europe when he does not have to travel half way around the globe. 7) Sistercharlie(8-5) Most likely will be odds on and I will try to beat. Makes 2nd start this year but like usual, Brown had her fit for her first test. 2 more good works and looks like that race took nothing out of her. Won this race last year in a contest between 3 Brown's trainees. One to beat. 5)Remember Daisy(30-1) Gets the acid test now but has shown some ability in her career. Though not likely to beat the top three, I will try to beat the rest in here with this one. No works since last, but trainer has farm nearby and probably has used it to keep her fit. Bets: .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $3 Super Key 6 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7($18). Total Risk $30. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10th Race: 7)Valid Point(5-1) Has not started since early June but has the best workout pattern since, and Brown is the one I first started noticing it with. Unbeaten in two starts and bred well enough to make it three, especially since the distance has been shorten to a mile on grass. 5)Ry's The Guy(15-1) Broken his maiden two back and then won his first level allowance race in his last and first effort on grass. As his bloodlines suggests, he put in his best performance to date when entered on the correct surface. Definitely not out of this and could surprise. Sire, Distorted Humor, performed in top level on dirt throughout his racing career, but as a sire is better known as an off track specialist or grass sire. Broodmare sire, Royal Academy, won the mile BC Turf Mile in his last start and when on to be a leading sire in several countries for several years. He is a 1/2 brother to Terlingua, the dam of Storm Cat. 1)Clint Maroon(20-1) After three straight win on grass, his last two had good possibilities why he did not win. His first of those two was a little further than his bloodlines suggests would be his best distance and in his most recent start, he stumbled at the start and then had to circle 6 wide to get into contention, giving his opponents a decided edge. Since that start, he has switched barns and has turned in three good works. His sire, Oasis Dream, was a sprint champion in Europe while his broodmare sire, El Prado is sire of both Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy. Another that is in with a good shot at an upset. 6)Fog Of War(3-1) Has made 2 starts this year with the second a significant improvement over his first start. However, he will need to take his class up another level or two to compete against these. His sire, War Front, is leading miler grass sire since the death of Scat Daddy. His dam, Say, a royally bred daughter of Galileo out of G1 SW Riskaverse has yet produced anyone close to either parent. Therefore, I will bet the three I like better and make this one beat me. Bets: $5 Ex Box 5-7($10), $2 Ex Box 1-5-7($12), $3 Tri Box 1-5-7($18), .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6($6). Total Risk $58. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 11th Race: 8)Captivating Moon(20-1) Made one start this year, finishing third in the prep for this race. Ran against good 3 YOs last year while never quite getting over type. New year and a freshening while giving him more time to mature could definitely be the answer. Two nice works since and he should be ready for the next step forward. 1)Robert Bruce(7-2) Made two starts this year, the first simply an out to get him fit. The second start saw him run 2nd to his stablemate, though he had the post position that tends to struggle compared to his stablemate who got another super trip from a post that tends to get good trips on Belmont inner turf course. 3)Bricks And Mortar(8-5) Is the favorite and deserving so. However, he is due for a not so good trip that will test his ability to overcome adversity that has taken many good runners down a notch or two. He is winding down his career as his breeding rights was sold to Japan and he departs after his last race this year, supposedly the BC Turf. Best U.S turf horse in training until someone knocks him down a notch. 4)Catcho En Die(30-1) Has made three starts this year and clearly been off form. However, he ran 4th in this race last year but was moved up to third via a dq of original third place finisher. Now on his fourth start since returning, including his first against the top two choices in here, I look for him to stick around because this field is similar to last year's field, with two horses dwarfing the others and he comes in not having a hard fought win he was coming off of, like last year. Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $44.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12th Race: 7)Comic Kitten(15-1) 4 starts this year with 2 seconds. But after a mini break of two months, she was entered in an allowance race that the winner slowed the pace down to a crawl and was able to hold her safe in a final time that was on the pedestrian side for grass especially. She needed two more efforts to recover, including drawing the rail on Saratoga turf course, where winners rarely make an impact from. Now she is working on her third try since that good first effort try and look for her to come alive. She has the same monstrous Sadler's Wells cross as Enable, though thru two different sons and grandsons. 2)Aunt Hattie(20-1) Has made 6 starts this year. Working on her fourth effort since her last winning effort with her last being her best effort, indicating she is regaining top form. One work since that effort should help her to retain her form. Her sire, Camelot, came the closest to sweeping the English TC since Nijinsky turned that hat trick in 1970. Her broodmare sire, Danehill, represent the same sire/dam family cross that has produced many top European G1 winners and champions. 10)Art Of Almost(5-1) 5 starts this year, breaking her maiden in her third start, then a conditioned allowance in her fourth start before finishing 3rd against a good G2 field of older mares, just missing second. 4 good works since that effort should have her in her best form. 3)Lightscameraaction(20-1) 3 starts this year, winning her most recent effort, but with some room for improvement. She showed some promise as a 2 YO and will most likely show more promise as she reaches peak conditioning. 2nd dam, Cross Traffic, was a multiple G1 SW and her best son, Cross Traffic, a son of Unbridled's Song, also won the G1 Whitney H and finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile. Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 2-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10($2.40), $1 Super Box 7 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10($6). Total Risk $44.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By my calculation, I have listed $483 worth of bets I will make at Arlington tomorrow. So my goal this week will be to cash tickets worth around $1500. Anything more will be like gravy on top, and anything less will make me try harder again next weekend.
The DRF Players Podcast had Two Guests Discussing the European Shippers. I'm Here to Provide the Cliff Notes.
I am awful at handicapping horses that ship from overseas, so I rely on others to make me a bit more aware. On the 26th the players podcast they had two European guests: Nick Luck (NL) and Nick Godfrey (NG). I'm not familiar with either, but it looks like Nick Luck does some broadcast work and Nick Godfrey is a writer for At The Races. Here's a TL;DR of what they said. Juvenile Turf Sprint (Friday R5): I think race will go to Europe. Last year the superfecta was all EU. Shang Shang Shang’s Ascot form is not as good as the other horses shipping. Sergei Prokofiev was supposed to be a good horse but kind of lost his way. Beat Well Done Fox and Pocket Dynamo last race. He had came with a good run in the stretch and needs a strong pace to win. He's a strong contender. Brings some class to the race with a group 3 win. Soldier’s Call is a fast classy horse and nearly wired in a group 1 win on Arc day. If he can reproduce he is competitive. Pocket Dynamo trained by Cowell who is an expertise in sprints. He doesn't own high price tag horses but this one is owned by Phoenix Thoroughbreds. Finished 5th last race but had a poor trip, should run better. Will be shorter in Europe than he on the 20/1 ML. (NG) Juvenile Fillies Turf (Friday R6): I think Newspaperofrecord is an amazing filly with great pedigree. I wouldn’t put you off. I don’t think there is an outstanding crop from EU. If there is one, its Just Wonderful. She’s got proper pedigree. She wants a decent racing surface, but with possible rain and the ground is soft, doesn’t think she will do well. (NL) I would play Newspaperofrecord. East will be overlooked but is worth looking at. Has won well. Not an obvious choice but can steal. (NG) Juvenile Turf (Friday R8): Anthony Van Dyck for O’Brien. This race is made for O’Brien. The horse is bringing proper European form and will be tough to beat. Coming out of the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst, runners in that race have produced BC winners in the BC Juv Turf such as Mendelssohn and Lancaster Bomber. American’s do not look that strong. (NG) Filly and Mare Turf (Saturday R6): Wild Illusion is the one to be aware of. She beat Magic Wand and the distance is ideal. However, I prefer Fourstar Crook and Sistercharlie. But Wild Illusion is a contender. (NG) Magic Wand is ground contingent, meaning would rather have firmer ground. Athena was modest, but not good enough to win. Magic Wand is questionable distance wise, goes to lead in past few races but hasn’t stayed. Favors Chad Brown more due to the amount of horses he has in the race. Wild Illusion also interesting, although never elaborated more. (NL) Breeders Cup Mile (Saturday R8): Expert Eye might have issue running on soft ground for the mile. Ground shouldn’t be an issue, but distance might. He has the class to win a graded stakes, but strength to finish might be blunted. There’s no clear standout in the race. Polydream will be bet down, should be competitive against this group. He has tactical speed. Gustav Klimt should run a consistent race, distance should suite. Happily should be competitive. I Can Fly should be competitive coming from Ascot on the soft ground. Lightning Spear had good form before Ascot. One Master is trained by Haggas who hasn’t had much BC success but this was an excellent year for him. All the European horses are interesting in their own right but one does not stick out more than the other. (NL) Good horses coming from EU but race is a crapshoot. Track record for European horses is not as good as you would think. GB have not won since 1990’s. He likes Polydream, says to forget the last race as the run was incredibly unlucky. Extended sprinters have faired well in this race. Expert Eye and Lightning Spear…meh. Most interested in Oscar Performance for US horses. Thinks that none of the EU horses will be sent to the lead which sets up Oscar Performance. I Can Fly and Gustav Klimt might be sent to front, but doubts it which sets it up for Oscar Performance. Discounts I Can Fly’s 2nd place to Roaring Lion last out, doesn’t think horse has class for this field. (NG) Breeders Cup Turf (Saturday R10): Enable is the most talented filly in the race. Comes off a light campaign. Could be the first horse to win Arc and BC turf in same season. The historical trend is that she won’t; but doesn't see that as massive negative. Thinks Channel Maker and Robert Bruce have a shot due to being home field advantage. Talked about Magical, but under the F&M turf. Said she had a shot in that field regardless of ground. This is a strong group of horses. Waldgeist is a horse he was incredibly impressed with. Thinks he can be better than the 4th place finish last out. Talismanic returns but isn’t in form, thinks if he returns to form he has a shot. (NL) Enable is a great filly. But will not bet at a short price and is betting against her unless she is 5/1. Mentioned horses never win Arc and BC in same year. Talismanic is being overlooked because of poor run in Arc where he was 3 wide. Horse will want firm ground. Says to forget about that last run at the Arc. Waldgeist was 4th in Arc. Fabre has won BC turf 4 times…all with horses that have finished 4th in the Arc. Coincidence? Form is better than Talismanic but will be a shorter price. Magical ran really well over 1.5mile. Hunting Horn is not good enough. Says he cannot see how any of these American horses win but is fond of Channel Maker. Says he is betting Talismanic. (NG) Breeders Cup Classic (Saturday R11): Mendelssohn ran a great race but has to wonder if he can duplicate performance. We underestimate Thunder Snow and thinks the pace favors him. If it rains, doesn’t like Thunder Snow or Mendelssohn. Most interesting is Roaring Lion. If he can translate to dirt, he is the best horse of the bunch. Does not move like a dirt horse though. Worried about kickback on the dirt. No idea if he will handle dirt since pedigree lacks dirt. (NL) Roaring Lion...I cannot see him winning the classic. Kitten’s Joy does not have success on the dirt. He’s a turf sire. I’ll be cheering for him but I won’t be betting him. (NG)
The Art Of Handicapping And The Ways I Approach Handicapping
To have success at betting thoroughbreds, you will need to learn how to break down races. But, first, I want to mention that every track has dirt and track setups(turns and length of stretch) that can influence the pace and this is why it is next to impossible to look at raw numbers and determine who is quickier from the gate and during the race, even. It is a mistake to consider each horse the same when they are entering races while coming from different tracks. I have long held the belief that all speed gurus assigns higher speed ratings to horses simply because they are coming from larger tracks and/or have been racing in races with higher purses. While this is not really noticeable in higher class races and horses running in top class races will have an advantage because they normally have been racing against better competition, it will often give you many opportunities to capitalize on horses that are overlooked coming from smaller tracks but racing in basically the same class but for less money and claiming prices. Purses offered does not mean a horse is better, but simply a track offer horses more money to entice them to race there. Class cannot be define simply because a horse has ran at a track that offers higher purses and this is a misconception throughout all of racing. A lot of my big price winners are actually horses coming from the middle size tracks where purses are smaller and taking on big brother who is overbet simply because he raced for more money and/or higher claiming prices or options. But basically, n/w 1 lifetime races are simply what they state. It is only for horses that has never won a race except their maiden races or some other conditioned race such as restricted(sales,etc) and/or races restricted to horses bred in that state. Very good horses also races at the middle size tracks, also. Over 90% of all races are not top tier races at all tracks, regardless if they are large tracks, medium size tracks or even small tracks. Class is determined more by conditions of every race and ranges from maidens, to n/w 2, 3, 4 lifetime races(claiming, allowance and/or state bred) and/or n/w 2,3,4, races other than(which includes lifetime, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year or even longer) to no conditions which means the race is open to all comers who wishes to run. When a field has to many entries, the tracks will either split the race and run two separate races under the same conditions or they will set up criteria where the horse they prefer will have the first option. Learning about class and what constitutes a rise and/or drop in class is the first step on the long road to repeated success. But every race will always be about early pace(front runners) or lack thereof. Some front runners will look like world beaters when they face no challenge early and will often finish in fairly fast time, but will wilt when any horse puts a minimal amount of pressure on them early and finish way back in much slower times. Other front runners, even when faced with pressure early, will still win but their final times will usually be slower because they kept trying even though they do not have as much energy left as a front runner who got no pressure. I will take a front running horse that faced pressure early and continued trying regardless of if he got beat over any horse that got to dictate his own pace with no pressure 100% of the time, and even more so if the pressured horse ran 1/5 of a second faster than the non pressured horse at first call(usually the 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile point, depending on distance of the race) in their last race, respectively and on occasion I will go a few races back if I feel the better horse needed that race. As you are looking for who may be the controlling speed or front runner, you will need to keep in mind that each horse will probably have last raced on different days and the dirt track may have been faster or slower on one day compared to the other. Most tracks cards their best races on Saturdays and those cards tends to produce faster times on average than other days but may not be any faster track wise than any other day of the week. Saturdays is almost always a track best days attendance and betting wise because a lot of handicappers find it difficult to attend races on other days of the week for various reasons. The first quarter will usually not be much slower for any horse on average, even on off days but the second and final times will usually be anywhere from a second to three full seconds slower on off tracks. Horses that flash speed on off tracks will still be fairly fresh at the 1/4 marker(first call) but as the race goes on will tend to start slowing down because they are usually exerting more energy every step but off the pace types and closers are saddled with the same problem and find it difficult to make up enough ground quick enough. As a general rule of thumb, for me at least, if I see two front running speed horses in the same race and neither has shown he can win when facing early pressure, I will normally look for a horse that I believe will stalk them about 4-5 lengths behind early and get first jump on the late runners. However, when I think the front runners is going to set a fast pace, I will bypass the off the pace type and look for a late runner because the stalker's jockey will usually panic and will send his horses after the front runner(s) too early. A lot of racing is about timing. But the stalker or slightly off the pace type horse is the type of horse I will most often bet to win and place. When two or more front runners duel early, these type of horses will usually sit the perfect trip and get first jump on the late runners coming from the back and often prove difficult to run down in time. Another time I will normally bet against the stalker or slightly off the pace type is when two or more front runners are dueling and one of the front runners looks like he may temporary break free after a stalker has already started making his move. A stalker will see the speed horse spurt free and will stop trying, thus setting the race up for a late runner to run either second or even first. So in theory, this is how I set my bets up in every race I bet. If I see a front running horse where there looks like there is no one else to pressure him early, I will box him in exactas and trifectas using late runners(no stalkers or slightly off the pace types unless the pace is expected to be slower than normal for that class). I used to key these types on top, but stewards at several different tracks taught me a lesson the hard way by taking them down and placing them second. I will bet the speed type back if he sets a brisk to fast pace and wired the field from gate to the finish line and finishes in a solid time. But if he is slowing down considerably or has in the past shown he can be caught, then I use extreme caution on a race by race analysis. I will always bet against any front running horse that sets a slow early pace in his winning race, regardless of if he finished in a moderate and/or fast time in his next start. The bet I make most often in exacta boxes is a slightly off the pace type(or stalker) with a late runner. I will usually throw the controlling speed in my trifecta box but will use another late runner often if I think all speed will stop. Before I bet superfectas, I will need to identify at least one longshot that I think will be overlooked and has a big chance to run in the top four. Before I bet any horizontal bets like a P3, P4, P5, etc., I will need to believe I have identified winners that I can key in at least half of the races and preferably more and they are rarely favorites. I missed a $40000 P3 earlier this year because my 40-1(thought he would be 10-1) and I keyed got nailed at the wire by another 25-1(who I thought had no shot to win). But the only reason I got close was because I identified at least 10 horses in the 2nd leg that I thought had a chance to upset, so I wheel(pick all to win) that race which had 14 entries(won by a 90-1) and keyed a 14-1 in the last who won by 6 lengths($28 ticket). So for $28(1x14x1x2(bet amount), I took a chance to make a life changing amount and was a nose short from making it happened. But if I had taken the same $28 and bet it to WP on any favorite in those three races, I would still have lost all my bets as no favorite even hit the board(1st, 2nd, 3rd). So do you want an opportunity to make a few bucks or do you want an opportunity to make an amount that could change your life? This is a question that each individual must answer for themshelves. But these opportunities only comes around every couple of months. But it is still a no-brainer for me personally. There are basically five or six angles I am always on the lookout for that has proven fruitful for me many times. I have mentioned that I have read many books on the horse racing industry and plucked all these angles from the books I read, though I tweaked a couple because they seemed to work better with with minor adjustment. First is the troubled trip angle. This is an angle I first heard of from Andrew Beyers Picking Winners book and he did a follow up in his The Winning Horseplayer book that was even more detailed. While most of his strategy regarding spreading out your bets and speed figures are not for me personally, his trip handicapping has proven to be a gold mine. It simply implies that watching races and noting which horses basically lost all chance from bad breaks, going wide, steadying after getting in full stride in the stretch, etc would be overlooked in their next start and win at big odds, especially if no one else seemed to notice(otherwise, not mentioned by race callers or experts). Next, speed to the top of the stretch angle. This implies that horses that battle for the lead to the top of the stretch(2nd call at least or third call preferably) but then fades would be stronger in their next race and was simply short on conditioning, especially if the pace was lively. Only informed bettors will even consider horses that faded in his last start. In the P3 that I referenced above, the winner of the last leg followed this angle exactly. He had shown speed to mid stretch before fading in his last start in a $7500 maiden claiming race at a small track. He was shipped across the state and entered in a $10000 maiden claiming at a much bigger track(bottom maiden claiming at the small track is $3500 and at the track he shipped to is $10000) So while it looked like he was going up in class, he was actually dropping. His trainer wins at 12-13% at the smaller track, but has shipped to bigger tracks where he wins at 6%. Since his trainer has already won on several longshots for me at these bigger tracks, I knew his horse was live and he would not be considered by most. The winner had started 6 times, all at the smaller track and had no wins 2 seconds and no thirds. The favorite who had ran 21 times with 0 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds at the larger track mostly, never picked up his feet. The horse than ran second in the race, got off at 10-1 and like the favorite, he had 15 prior starts with no wins or seconds but six thirds. To me, it was like betting an heavy favorite, but I was given 14-1 which was a gift I do not receive very often. Next, is the third race back angle. This implies a horse that won three starts ago, then had two less than inspiring or bad races, would rebound and win again. I originally found this angle flawed for two reasons and did a little tweaking to fit my beliefs. First, it seemed everyone knew about this angle and odds were often very low. Second, they were usually bet again regardless of how bad they ran. After a while, people thoughts began fading on this angle and horses started winning again in their third race back. But I noticed most were winning when they ran a horrible race after their winning race, then ran a much improved race their next start and would win again at solid odds. But if their better race of the two after winning was their first start, they would more often be in the beginning of their going off form cycle and would be bad bets to repeat in their third race back. So I add this to the original angle and started getting much better results and though I have never hit a bomb winner(40 or 50-1), I have many times received double digit odds on winners. Next, horses that ran third in their last start angle. I also found this angle in a book but the author was really speaking about horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths but ran third in his most recent race. As I have stated many times, I have never focus on any angle without researching the angle and checking to see if I can get the results I desire by using these methods. While the author was right about this angle, IMO, he really did not go far enough. But a couple of years later, I saw this same angle in another book with stricter criteria and it has proven to be my most consistent money maker through the years. The second author(I can not recall his name) noted the qualifying horse must have ran third in his most recent race, but he must have finished two or more lengths behind the top two finishers. Earlier this year, I saw a horse running at GP that had ran third beaten 6 1/2 lengths in his most recent start which was a non graded stakes race. He was entered in a grade 2 stakes race and was overlooked by the crowd and got off at 94-1. While he did not win that race, he did run second beaten less than 2 lengths by the second favorite and paid $60 to place. The favorite had shipped in from SA and was trained by Chad Brown but ran a flat race to be no factor(otherwise, he was not ready to face horses that was closer to maximum conditioning). The next two angles were angles I developed myself. I did not read either out of any books and developed them from watching many races. The first of these two is the fourth race back theory. It is a simple belief that horses will reach their peaked conditioning in their fourth start back after a freshening of six months or longer. But where do you think I really got this angle from? Well, if you look at the Ky Derbies that were ran through the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, you will see almost every winner and second place finishers were entering that race on their fourth start of the year after taking a break from their 2 YO campaign before starting their 3 YO campaign. Back then, most horses that were a factor was entering the derby in their 10th or 11th lifetime start(even had more races if you go further back) and had to be in better conditioning than their rivals. This is much less true today as most horses are entering the derby in 6 career starts or less and are not fully developed. This is the biggest reason many derby winners and 2nd place finishers today do not train on after winning the derby. They are ran into the ground and asked to do too much too soon without a solid foundation. And my last angle that I watch for has everything to do about conditioning. The best money making opportunity you will ever get involves identifying horses that have not yet ran their peak races in their current form cycle. After a horse run a top race is often much too late to get odds that can and will change your life, but if you learn how to recognize them before they peak, you odds of making money at horse racing betting goes up considerably. The masses will see their peak race and jump on the bandwagon which the results is much lower odds in their next out or two, depending on trainer and jockey recognition. So you say there is no way anyone can tell when a horse is reaching top form before hand? Well, did you know that a huge majority bet horses after they reach their peak? They also bet horses after they have ran their best race and only has one way to go and that is off form which they will usually do gradually. Most trainers can recognize when a horse is improving because they watch them constantly but for bettors, it takes some serious focus and knowledge to recognize this angle. For front running type of horses, they are starting to peak when they hold their speed for a longer time than their most recent races. For slightly off the pace types, you can recognize they are peaking when they make a serious run at the leaders before flattening out in the stretch run. For late runners, when they pick up(or pass) more horses than in any race in their recent past are all signs that the horse is peaking. I especially like betting late runners that ran 3rd, 4th, or 5th while making a run in their most recent race(and they do not have to close a lot of ground on the leaders) I will occasionally add a horse that ran 6th if that race was against a larger than normal field. Sorry about this long winded post. But before you can begin to get better or more consistent, you will need to recognize there are ways to make serious money and if you learn to recognize what works best for you, you are half way there. No need to guess and hope that lady luck shines on you, though that never hurts either when she does. But if you feel luck is the only way to make money, I would recommend playing the lottery instead of betting the horses. Your chances of making serious money is about the same but there is much less thought involved.
My Life of should've, would've, could've, but didn't : Why I love Crypto Currency
Mostly all here are invested into Crypto. We all have our own reasons, methods, values of how we invest our money. One thing in common is we all have one main goal. That is to get as much money as possible out of this with the time, and money we can spare. That's the dam truth. We are all here together, and since we are all here on our own will , I want to tell you why you should be proud to hold all your crypto. I'm 38 years old. At 18 after I graduated HS I had about $7800. $1400 from my graduation party, and $6400 selling my MTG collection on EBay. I also managed a small arcade for about $400 a week. Back to my MTG collection. I sold it because it changed. The designs on the new series looked too modern . the original designs were a work of art. Anyway, I seriously wanted to hold those magic cards but I kept telling myself "I can get them back if I want. The price isn't going to move anytime soon. The market is in a decline. Some of these have been the same price for 2 years now." I was right, the price of my two Lotus's stayed the same for 5 more years. Not budging . 12 years later after that , those same two cards value at over $60,000 . my entire collection would of been worth over $250,000 if I held. The same goes for all the first edition garbage pail kids I had. So , what did I do with all $7800? I told myself I want to invest it into Microsoft . But I talked myself out of it by saying "Some people told me the market was a risk, and I had to prepare myself to lose it all" So I didn't do it. I was close, but I didn't. I could of had almost a Million lol I instead used that money for a school. Business computer programming . lol It was a waste because 90% of what they taught me came natural. I was doing basic programming at 13 for fun. I regret not going with my initial FOMO on Microsoft , I regret listening to my own FUD with the MTG cards. 7 years later, I had about 15k, I wanted to invest 10 k in apple after I read about the release of the iphone, but instead opted to do 5k over FUD I read about the risk since they never made phones. Then I said to myself "a fuck it, I don't want to do this. I could do so much more with this 5k" I instead used it to turbocharge my transam, and add a racing transmission, tires, new stero system , and I took a 2 week vacation ...GONE! I got what I wanted. Got laid a bunch of times, went to car shows. That could of been $250k now lol. To top this off, I missed out on a quick $78,000 win at the racetrack. Horses. I lost $200 I had $5 left. I did a completely wild bet for $5. I picked all longshots in a superfecta. Then 1 minute before the race I Cancelled the bet. I told myself ... "this is stupid, 78:1, 56:1, 33:1, 20:1 long shots coming out in this order? Fuck that, I'm canceling and putting $5 on the 10:1 to win . maybe I can get $50 back " Well. The fucking.. Lol it came out. 3 largest superfecta payout in history. No body won it. I hate myself for cancelling that. But hey, maybe that happened for a reason. Maybe I wouldn't have ended up living on another country for 2 years. Learning another language. You see So many times in my life I had the perfect opportunity , and I didn't take it. I let fear, uncertainty, and doubt make my Choices for me. Then came crypto currency. Last year, a client of mine told me he got rich off Bitcoin. He raved about it . He told me about ripple, ETH etc. I invested, I went through ups a downs. I gained massive amounts of money off my original $500. NO , never again I will tell myself... "IF ONLY I DID THAT WHEN I HAD THE CHANCE" NOW I NEVER HAVE TO SAY THAT AGAIN! I DONT GIVE A SHIT IF IT TANKS ANOTHER 50% FROM HERE. I NOW NEVER HAVE TO SAY ... "IF ONLY I DID IT" NOW I DID! Crypto Currency is severely undervalued. Its manipulated down right now. This about this logic, how can something increasingly popular with more and more support by the day drop in price? Crypto isn't human. Bitcoin isnt getting fired over sexual harrassement, there isn't a corporate takeover. Its manipulation. I don't care if this shit takes 5 years to recover. I'm holding . I don't care if BTC dips to $1000. I'm holding till this MCAP tops 10 trillion. so if you love your crypto, hold that F#%KING SHIT! The lesson here is never let FUD make choices for you. Stick to your own beliefs. If there's a voice in the back of your head telling you its a bad choice to cash out. Listen to that voice, that's your guilty conscious . That's you. Listen to yourself, not the new voice that intrudes.
**My Father does a write up about the derby horses every year. He has been to every Derby since Dust Commander won (1970) We had a great response last year so here is 2018! I will see if I can get him to answer any Derby related questions if anyone is interested. Good luck everyone! As I begin my 36th analysis of America’s greatest horse race, I need to talk about the way that trainers have approached this race over the last 20 years. Back in 1998, the Derby horses had an average of 8.4 career starts before the Derby. That number is now 5.9 career starts for this year’s expected 20 entrants, a decrease of nearly 30% over the last 20 years - so what is happening? There are many possible explanations for this downward trend. The most discussed reason is that trainers are placing more time between their charges’ races than ever before, the result is fewer starts overall for the Derby contenders. Is it possible that trainers are “babying” their horses a little too much? Back in the 70’s the Derby entrants had their last prep race within two weeks of the Derby, now it’s more like 4-6 weeks between a colt’s last race and the Derby. So as a handicapping factor, the number of career starts and the number of starts as a 3-yo seems to be “out the window”. However, I still believe that the colts with more racing experience have a slight edge in conditioning and therefore, a slightly better chance of winning the race. That being said, this year’s field has eight probable entrants who have fewer that 6 career starts, including the probable favorite and several other legitimate contenders. Let’s see how this turns out. So, without any further ado, here is my analysis of the colts (no fillies entered this year) in the 2018 Run for the Roses. Colts are listed in the order of the points they amassed in their prep races – not in the order that I think they will finish: Magnum Moon: This lightly raced, undefeated colt (4 for 4 lifetime), is one of possibly 4 Todd Pletcher colts who will be in the starting gate and is one of two entrants who will be trying to overcome the “Curse of Apollo” (see footnotes for an explanation). He ran the fastest final 3/8 mile of this year’s colts with a time of 36:47 seconds in the Arkansas Derby, a race in which he controlled the pace through very reasonable fractions; running a fast final 3/8 mile is generally a good thing in the Derby. The Arkansas Derby has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners. He has already beaten one other Derby entrant – Solomini – but the Derby will be his 5 th race in 112 days. He is a May foal and also must overcome the “Curse of Apollo “. If he finds himself up close early, in what is shaping up as a race with a lot of early speed, this will likely compromise his chances. I will have a hard time betting him to finish in the money in this race. Good Magic: This lightly raced Chad Brown trainee (5 starts) actually broke his maiden in the GR1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November and was last year’s 2-yo champion. He has wins over other entrants Flameaway, Bolt’d’Oro, Solomini and Enticed and loses to Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled. He had a nice freshening over the winter and came back with a slightly disappointing 3 rd place finish as the odds- on favorite in the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream in March. His next start was much better as he won the Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland (23 Blue Grass runners have won the Ky. Derby). He is a $1,000,000 Curlin colt, has a great trainer, and his running style will have him off the pace tracking the leaders in the early going. Also, he is considered a “dual-qualifier” (see footnotes for an explanation), an angle that historically has had success in identifying contenders in the Derby. I think he has a good chance of winning the race. Audible: Another lightly raced, Pletcher trained entrant (5 starts) ran a great race to win the Florida Derby. His winning time of 1:49 2 in the race was the fastest 1-1/8 mile time for a 3-yo this year (reminds me of Always Dreaming last year) and the Florida Derby has produced 24 winners of the Kentucky derby. He will have a five-week layoff before the first Saturday in May but he has shown that he can run well off such a layoff. He has beaten other Derby entrants Free Drop Billy and Hofburg. He has several knocks against him however- 1) his breeding suggests that 1-1/4 miles might not be his best distance and he is a great, great grandson of Storm Cat through Harlan’s Holiday– Storm Cat offspring are 0-51 in the Derby – make of that what you will. As good as he has looked this year, I am hesitant to bet him to win, but he might fill out some of the exotics. For those who don’t know, exotic bets are exactas (first two finishers coming in), trifectas (first three finishers coming in) and the superfectas (first four finishers coming in). Noble Indy: Yet another Pletcher trained entrant, this lightly raced colt (4 starts) won the Louisiana Derby in his last effort and has beaten other Derby entrants Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, but was beaten by Bravazo. He began racing in December 2017 so he is just a little shy of qualifying for the “Curse of Apollo”, nevertheless, the Derby will be his 5 th race in as many months. The Derby will also be his first start in 6 weeks. He seems to have issues breaking cleanly from the gate, which could be a factor in the Derby. He likes to be up close to the pace so that could also be a problem in this race. I am leaning against betting on him. Vino Rosso: Pletcher’s 4 th possible entrant. His last race, the Wood Memorial, was by far his best race of the year as he came from 9 lengths back to win going away over Derby entrant Enticed. However, he was beaten by Flameaway in two stakes races at Tampa earlier in the year. He only has 5 career starts but posted a fast last 3/8 mile in the Wood. Eleven winners of the Wood have gone on to win the Derby, but no colt has done that since 2000. John Velazquez rode him in the Wood and will ride him in the is Derby - which kind of surprises me as I think the other Pletcher colts are better than Vino Rosso and it seems that Johnny V had his choice of which Pletcher colt to ride. He has a closing running style but has never been in a race with more than 8 competitors, so he may encounter traffic with a 20-horse field. I believe he peaked in the Wood but I might bet him in some of the exotics in the Derby. Bolt d’Oro: This colt has intrigued me for the past two years. He won two GR1 races as a 2-yo and has always been in the money in 5 graded stakes efforts (2 wins, 2- 2nds and a 3 rd ). He is a “dual qualifier” and ran very good races in both the San Felipe (great stretch battle with McKinzie) and the SA Derby (when 2 nd to Justify) in his 2 starts this year. He has beaten fellow entrant Solomini and has lost to that one as well as Good Magic and the aforementioned Justify. One knock on him is that he is not a good gate horse and tends to break slow. Another knock is his trainer Mick Ruis (who also owns him). Mick has a poor win record this year, does not do well with shippers and this will be his first Derby entrant. Either his two starts this year have set him up well for the first Saturday in May OR they may have taken something out of him. His last race was a career best speed figure for him and horses often “bounce” (run worse in their next race) off these types of efforts in their next race. Anyway, I think enough of his natural talent to consider him a potential winner of the race. Enticed: His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, hopes that this colt finally gets him and his Owner, Godolphin, their first Derby win. He has been running against the best of his generation for the last two years but his record is spotty against them. He has beaten Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled but he has also been beaten by Vino Rosso, Audible, Free Drop Billy, Firenze Fire and Good Magic. He was beaten in the last two races where he was favored- the Wood and the Holy Bull. He does own a win over the Churchill Downs surface, so he can handle that track. He didn’t come home all that well in the Wood; I can’t see him winning the Derby but, he may get a part of the superfecta. I believe he is a cut below the best of this year’s 3-yo’s. Mendelssohn: Probably this year’s most interesting colt. On the positive side: 1) He is trained by Aidan O’Brien, one of the best trainers in the world, 2) Though he is a European based colt, he came to Del Mar in November and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – quite an accomplishment for a 2-yo, 3) He was a $3M purchase as a yearling (that price shows a lot of confidence in his potential), 4) He went to Dubai in March and won the UAE Derby, a 1-3/16 mile race, by 18 lengths (the 2 nd place horse was a filly who is running in the Oaks)! 5) He is a dual qualifier. Now for the negatives: 1) Prior to his win in Dubai, his first 5 of his 6 races were on turf tracks in Ireland and Great Britain and the other was a mile on the synthetic track at Dundalk, 2) He raced in Dubai, my experience is that the travel to and from the Middle East takes a lot out of a horse and now he must go to Kentucky! 3) He is descendent of Storm Cat through Scat Daddy and Storm Cat’s descendants are 0-51 in the Derby. As an aside, his sire Scat Daddy, could have four starters in the Derby and if the Storm Cat futility holds up there are four colts who will not win. 4) Like several other colts in the race he is a May foal and late foals have not had success in the Derby in the last 20 years. I suspect that he will be well hyped come Derby time and will take a lot of action at the windows. I will take a stand against him. Justify: This colt is the talk of the racing world, the hype and respect he has garnered would make you think that he is the next Man O’WaSecretariat. Well I am not so sure that he will win the Derby, though many experts say that he will be the favorite in the race. I base my opinion on the following: 1) He must overcome the “Curse of Apollo” (this will be his 4 th race in 76 days), 2) He is a descendent of Storm Cat and like Mendelssohn is out of Scat Daddy and Storm Cat’s descendants are 0-51 in the Derby. 3) Though undefeated in 3 career starts, he has not had to overcome any adversity in any of those races (though some might say that he is so good that he naturally dominated his competition, kind of the way American Pharoah did in 2015), 4) He will face more colts in the Derby than he has faced in his three career races combined (read that again)- in other words he is not battle tested. 5) The amount of quality speed in the Derby may compromise his chances if Mike Smith decides to keep him close to the pace. 6) His race in the Santa Anita Derby was a career high speed figure for him and he may “bounce” off that effort. NOTE: the Santa Anita Derby winner has won 10 Kentucky Derbies and 7 other Derby winners have come out of the race. On the positive side: 1) He is trained by Bob Baffert who is arguably America’s best trainer with 4 Kentucky Derby wins already and a Triple Crown win – he obviously is a trainer to take seriously in the Derby, 2) In his last race, the Santa Anita Derby he defeated Bolt d’Oro a legitimate Derby contender, and, 3) He gets the services of Mike Smith. “Money Mike” is America’s best jockey but he only has 1 Kentucky Derby winner from 23 mounts. I really can’t play this colt to win, but I probably have to include him in my exotic bets – he might just be as good as some experts are saying and maybe Mike gets his 2 nd Derby win. Flameaway: Trained by Mark Casse who will be looking for his first Kentucky Derby win, this colt is one of the more accomplished in the field this year with 9 career starts, including 4 this year. He was beaten Good Magic in his last race –the Blue Grass Stakes. His preferred running style is to be up close or on the lead so that will put him in the thick of a hot pace in the Derby. Probably not the place to be! He has one start over the CD track and that resulted in the worst defeat of his career in the Iroquois Stakes. He is also another colt who traces to Storm Cat through Scat Daddy so you all know by now what that might mean. His breeding indicates that he may have trouble with the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby. I don’t see him finishing in the money in the Derby. Solomini: Baffert’s second possible entrant in the race has never been out of the money in 6 career starts, but he only has a maiden win to show for his efforts (he was disqualified from 1 st to 3 rd for interference in the Los Alamitos Futurity during a stirring stretch duel). He has been beaten by Magnum Moon, Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro – that’s some pretty good company right there! But alas, his dam is out of Storm Cat (here we go again). He is owned by Zayat Stables who brought us American Pharoah so they know their way around the track – so to speak - and Baffert’s record speaks for itself. Is there a Baffert exacta possible in the Derby? I kind of doubt it. Like Justify, I may have to use this guy in a tri or super. Bravazo: This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was thoroughly beaten in his last Derby prep, the Louisiana Derby. He finished a distant 8 th , beaten by 21 lengths as the 2 nd choice in the betting. Those finishing ahead of him include Derby entrants Noble Indy, Lone Sailor, and My Boy Jack. He won the Risen Star over the same track in his previous start so how could he have such a reversal in form? He has competed against many of the best of his generation with varying degrees of success – beating both Noble Indy and Lone Sailor but losing to Enticed and Free Drop Billy. D.Wayne knows how to get a colt to run well in the Ky Derby (after all he has won the race four times), but Bravazo’s poor effort in Louisiana is hard to explain. It’s great to see D.Wayne with another Derby entrant, but I think I will pass on this one. My Boy Jack: This colt has the most career starts of any of the Derby entrants with 10. He is very consistent, being in the money 8 times in his 10 starts. Early in his career he was considered a turf horse but has found dirt to be to his liking. Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother Kent – winner of three Derbies- this colt is one of the four confirmed closers in the field. If the pace is fast, as expected, he is the most likely closer to have a shot, provided he can avoid traffic problems (hard to do with a dozen or more colts in front of you) when he starts to make his move. He will likely have to be wide around the last turn but he is capable of running a fast final 3/8 mile. He is out of Creative Cause so he is another entrant who is a descendent of Storm Cat. If the Storm Cat descendants continue their futile runs in the Derby he may not win. All this being said, I think I have to include him in some exotics as the most likely closer to hit the board. Promises Fulfilled: One of two Dale Romans’ entrants, seems like he has only one way of going – to the front! I don’t see him having an easy lead like he did when winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes beating Good Magic. He finished last, beaten by 35 lengths, in the Florida Derby after setting fast early fractions losing to Audible. The Derby will certainly not be a slow pace and this will compromise his chances. He has run well over the CD strip, being in the money in two starts. However, his breeding screams “sprinter” with a dosage index of 9.00; he is a descendent of Storm Cat through Forestry and he is a May foal. Given these negatives – running style, high dosage index, descendent of Storm Cat and late foaling date I will pass. Free Drop Billy: Dale Romans’ second entrant, is also a May foal and a descendent of Storm Cat – two negatives to consider. On the other hand: 1) He won a GR1 stakes as a 2-yo beating Bravazo and Lone Sailor, 2) He has been in the money 7 out of 8 career starts, and, 3) He is a “dual qualifier”. He was beaten in the Blue Grass by Good Magic and Flameaway. He has also lost to Enticed, Audible, Solomini, Bolt d’Oro and Firenze Fire in other races. As you can see, he has been beaten by many of the same colts he should face on May 5 th , not exactly a vote of confidence for his win chances. He has one win over the CD strip when he broke his maiden. He has always been well supported at the windows but come May 5 th , I think he will be a longshot and I won’t play him. Lone Sailor: This Thomas Amoss trainee ran well enough in the Louisiana Derby to place 2 nd in what was his best race, however, he only has a maiden win to his credit in 8 career starts going into the Derby. He was beaten by Noble Indy, Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy and Brazavo when he faced them. This colt is another who does his running from the back of the pack and may face traffic issues turning for home. However, he had a tremendous 5f work at CD on 4/20 that has the clockers talking. I can see him improving enough to be in the superfecta in the Derby. Hofburg: Not really sure what Bill Mott and his connections (Juddmonte) are thinking entering him in this race - they should know better (perhaps he will scratch). His 2 nd place finish in the Florida Derby earned him enough points to get into the Derby but he only has 3 career starts and if your best effort in a stakes race is a 2 nd , why bother entering the Derby? There isn’t much to say about this colt other than I think he should stay in the barn come the Derby. Firenze Fire: Trained by Jason Servis, the trainer of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones, this colt has not lived up to the 2-yo potential he showed when he won both the GR1 Champaign and the GR3 Sanford Stakes. He comes into his 3-yo campaign with a mile win in the Jerome over a muddy track, while being beaten in his last 3 starts – the Wood, the Gotham and the Withers stakes. He has been beaten by fellow entrants Vino Rosso, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Solomini, and Bolt d’Oro, and in turn he has beaten Good Magic, Enticed and Free Drop Billy so you could say that he fits right up there with the best of his generation. I don’t think that his 2-yo form has transferred to his 3-yo campaign, so I will have a hard time backing him come Derby day. Combatant: One of Steve Asmussen’s four possible entrants. This colt has only one win in 7 career starts but he has run 2 nd or 3 rd enough times to get the points (32) needed to get into the race. It is hard for me to back him in any kind of wager except maybe a superfecta. He has been beaten by Magnum Moon, Solomini and My Boy Jack, when he faced them. He is a descendent of Storm Cat so beware of that and he is a May foal, another negative. If I play him at all it may be in the superfecta – he could run 4 th I guess. Instilled Regard: This Jerry Hollendorfer trainee won the LeComte at the Fairgrounds in his 3-yo debut, but then ran 4 th in the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds after flying back and forth to California – guess he didn’t like the travel. In his next start he again finished 4 th this time to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby - never really getting into the race. He has 2 wins from 7 career starts and he has been in training since his career debut in September 2017. In the Derby, it will be hard for me to bet him. The negatives against him are: 1) In the Lecomte, he really didn’t beat anyone of note, 2) His speed figures haven’t improved since he ran in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, and, 3) He really hasn’t shown any improvement in his races this year. So there are the top 20 horses, but I need to look at 1 more in the event that there are scratches or other defections. Blended Citizen: The Doug O’Neil trainee has earned only $31,890 of his total earnings of $196,854 on dirt, he has earned most of his money racing on synthetic surfaces at Golden Gate and Turfway. His most recent start was in the Blue Grass Stakes where he finished 5 th to the likes of Good Magic, Flameaway , Sporting Chance and Free Drop Billy. He has never won a race on a dirt surface in four tries, the last time I looked, CD was a dirt track. I really don’t think he will have an impact in the Derby. So, there you have it, my analysis of the top possible entrants for the Derby. The big question is how will I bet this race? Well there are two colts in here who “checked” all the right boxes - the boxes that point to a Derby winner – Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro. It is hard to separate these two, but something tells me that Chad Brown will win his first Derby with Good Magic (even though he only has 5 career starts), although I could also be talked into betting on Bolt d’Oro to win. I may place a few hundred dollars to win on Good Magic - I will just have to see come Derby day if I place the win bet on Bolt d’Oro instead. I will have a $10 four-horse exacta box with these two and Justify and My Boy Jack. I will make a $1 five- horse trifecta box using Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, Justify, My Boy Jack and Vino Rosso. I will then play a $1 six-horse superfecta with Good Magic, Bolt d’ Oro, Justify, My Boy Jack, Audible and Vino Rosso. You will notice that I do not plan on making a win bet on the two “curse” of Apollo colts, the seven Storm Cat descendants, the four colts with dosage numbers above 4.00 or the five colts who are May foals. I am following history and statistics in deciding to eliminate the colts that do not have “history” on their side. Hope they don’t let me down by winning! Things can change between now and race time. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind on these bets depending on what happens between now and Derby day. Footnotes: Dual Qualifier: Is a colt who was weighted within 10 pounds of the 2-yo high weight in The Jockey Club's Annual Top 2-Year- Old Rankings (this is a weight-based assessment of the previous year's leading 2-year- olds for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 mile with the top colt assigned a theoretical 126 pounds to carry in the race) and has a dosage index of less than 4.00. The Dosage Index: Is a mathematical figure used by breeders of race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. A dosage index of less than 4.00 indicates the ability to get a route of ground (1-1/4 mile or farther). Curse of Apollo: Since 1882, no colt has won the Kentucky Derby who did not race as a 2-yo. Since 1937 61 colts raced in the Derby but did not have a race as a 2-yo – none of them won. Storm Cat futility: Descendants of Storm Cat are 0-51 in their Derby attempts. I know this is a lot to digest, especially for those of you who are not that knowledgeable about thoroughbred racing. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed reading it and I wish you all the best if you decide to bet the 2018 Kentucky Derby. May the horse be with you.
My father's does a yearly write up for the derby Enjoy! As I sit down at my computer to put keystrokes to the screen (the old pen to paper analogy) for my analysis of the 143 rd Kentucky Derby, I am once again struggling to come up with the winner. For those of you who follow the colts as they make their way to Louisville, you undoubtedly know that this year’s entrants have one thing in common – they are, for the most part, consistently inconsistent! For example, last year’s 2-yo champ – Classic Empire –threw in a real clunker in the Holy Bull and then went on the sidelines due to some physical problems. Gormley was soundly beaten in the BC Juvenile (by Classic Empire) and in the San Felipe. A maiden – Irap – won the Bluegrass. Irish War Cry never ran a lick in the Fountain of Youth, likewise for Gunnevera in the Florida Derby. You see where this is going don’t you? Anyway I will take an in-depth look at the top 20 colts using some old school handicapping (dosage, dual- qualifiers, number of starts, etc.) and personal intuition based on my previous 47 Derbies to try to come up with the winner, or at least a nice exacta or trifecta ticket. I will analyze the colts based on the number of points they accumulated on “The Road to Louisville” not in the order that I think they will run. Here we go. Girvin: By far the highest point getter with 150 points is, in my opinion, going to be over-bet in the Derby and I think his chances for success are limited based on the following. 1) He has only four lifetime starts and didn’t start running until December 16 th . I find that colts with this pattern have been rushed to make the Derby and don’t have a very good foundation under them. 2) Girvin is his trainer’s (Joe Sharp) first Derby starter and a trainer’s first Derby entrant usually doesn’t win. 3) Mike Smith looks to have the mount on Girvin for the Derby as his regular jock, Brian Hernandez, will ride McCraken. Even though Mike is arguably the best rider in America, he has only one Derby win and Brian Hernandez chose to ride another colt. I don’t think that Girvin will win the race but he might fill out an exacta or trifecta box. Classic Empire: Last year’s 2-yo champion, has had a very spotty year to say the least. His positives are: A) He had 2 wins over the CD track as a 2-yo, B) He was the 2-yo champ last year, and, C) He ran well in the Arkansas Derby (3 winners of the race have won the KY Derby) coming from off the pace to win. The negatives surrounding him are: A) He missed a lot of training this year with hoof and back injuries. B) He has had only 2 starts this year, while this is not a show stopper, will he be fit enough off those two starts to navigate 1-1/4 miles? C) He has earned over $2M and I believe that colts who have earned this much going into the Derby do not fare well in the race (although this is based on a very limited sample). D) His dosage index is 5.00 which is above the historic dosage threshold of 4.00 (see the footnotes at the end of this article for a definition of dosage). Lately the dosage theory has not necessarily held up, I wouldn’t be surprised if this colt goes off as the favorite, but I have my doubts about him winning the race. Gormley: Winner of the GR1 Santa Anita Derby and the GR1 Front Runner ties him with Practical Joke for the most GR1 wins of the Derby entrants. He was soundly beaten in both the San Felipe and the BC Juvenile and his win in the SA Derby produced a very slow last 1/8 mile time, not a positive sign for Churchill’s long stretch. On the positive side: A) He is a dual-qualifier, B) He has a nice dosage profile, C) His sire, Malibu Moon, sired Orb to win the KY Derby, D) Ten winners of the SA Derby have gone on to win the KY Derby, and, E) He gets the services of Victor Espinoza who knows how to win the Derby having ridden War Emblem, California Chrome and American Pharoah to victory. I kind of like his chances to get in the money. Irap: The only maiden to win the Bluegrass Stakes (10 winners of the Bluegrass have also won the Derby) at Keeneland, I don’t know what to make of him. Being the traditionalist that I am, I cannot bet a colt to win the Derby who has only one lifetime win on his resume. He has run pretty well in stakes races and his connections know what it takes to win the Derby (having won with Nyquist and I’ll Have Another). That being said, there is no way I can support him on Derby day. Irish War Cry: Here’s another colt that looked good when winning the Holy Bull (where he beat Classic Empire and Gunnevera), then looked horrible losing the Fountain of Youth to Gunnevera and Practical Joke), and then looked good winning the Wood Memorial - even though he didn’t beat much that day. He may be a little light on foundation having only raced 5 times but this son of Curlin he is a colt with some upside potential. I’m not sure he can win the Derby but I may include him in my exotic wagers. Thunder Snow: Well the Saudi’s are going to try again to win the Derby with this colt. So far the rulers of Dubai have not had any success running in America’s greatest race; I don’t see them taking the trophy home this year either! This Irish bred began his career in Europe with 6 turf starts as a 2- yo but has raced only twice this year in Dubai. He has run, and won, at 1-3/16 mi (farther than any other Derby entrant) and has carried more than the Derby weight of 126 pounds in his career. However, I don’t like horses that run in Dubai in March and then ship to the US to run in May – that is a long journey for anyone to take let alone a 3-yo colt. I will pass on this one. Always Dreaming: This Todd Pletcher trained son of Bodemeister looked great winning the Florida Derby , the fastest 1-1/8 mi race this year, over State of Honor and Gunnevera and adds to Pletcher’s arsenal for the Derby (he currently has 5 possible runners in the top twenty colts). Note that fourteen previous winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby including last year’s winner Nyquist. This colt has never been out of the money in 5 career starts and has always been well supported at the windows. Even though he is a little light on starts, he has been coming to hand this year with three impressive wins (although it did take him 3 tries to break his maiden). His dosage index is a little high at 5.00 (see Classic Empire) and his Florida Derby win was a new high speed figure for him which means he may be susceptible to “bouncing” (regressing) off that effort. Anyway, I am really intrigued by this guy and he may be my win bet. He’s in the exotics for sure. Gunnevera: One of the more accomplished runners in the field with 9 career starts, this colt has been knocking heads with many of the contenders in the field. He has been beaten by Always Dreaming, State of Honor, Irish War Cry and Classic Empire. He in turn has beaten Practical Joke and Classic Empire. His trainer, Antonio Sano, has never run a colt in the KY Derby (see Girvin) and since this is his first entry in the race,statistically he is not likely to win the Derby. Javier Castellano looks like he will retain the mount in the Derby – not a bad jock to have on your colt. His dosage profile has representation in each of the five dosage categories, which is a good sign from a breeding perspective and he is a dual-qualifier. All in all, I like the colt but I am afraid that his negatives outweigh his positives; he may be used in the exotics. Practical Joke: This Chad Brown trainee is a dual-qualifier but his dosage profile is pretty light on representation. He has never been out of the money in 6 career starts so he is a competitive sort of colt. He is also the only other two time GR1 stakes winner in the race (see Gormley). He couldn’t catch Irap in the Bluegrass and has been beaten by Gunnevera and Classic Empire. With only two starts this year he is a little light on race experience, and his only win at a mile or longer came in the one-turn Champagne at Belmont. While he was closing in the Bluegrass, the last 1/8 mi in that race was run in a very slow 13 1 seconds.He should have been able to catch the maiden Irap but he didn’t. I have liked this colt all year, but I have my doubts whether he can be in the money come May 6 th . J Boys Echo: His only significant win, the Gotham, came over Aqueduct’s inner dirt track ( not sure why Dale Romans had him in NY over the winter) and he strikes me as a colt who is still trying to find himself. He was beaten in the Bluegrass by Irap, Practical Joke and McCraken but has an excuse for that effort having bobbled and getting bumped at the start. Robby Albarado was his regular pilot but Robby is now out with a broken leg so this guy will get a new jock, not a good thing this close to the Derby. I don’t really have a positive feeling about this colt so I will take a pass on him come Saturday. State of Honor: This Mark Casse colt has the most career starts of any Derby entrant – 10- but only 4 of those were run over dirt, where he is winless. He has only one career win - on synthetic but he has run well racing on dirt in several stakes races in Florida. He has been beaten by Always Dreaming, Tapwrit and McCraken in those stakes efforts but has been close to all of them at the finish. For those of you looking for a price in the exotics, this might be your guy as he always seems to be close. As for me, I’ll wait until I get to CD and look at him up close and personal before making any decisions about betting him. Tapwrit: Another of Pletcher’s potential entries, this $1.2M son of Tapit won the Tampa Bay Derby beating State of Honor, but threw in a stinker of a race in the Bluegrass Stakes as the second betting choice behind McCraken when he blew the start. He obviously has good breeding and his owner was ready to spend over a million dollars for him, so who knows? Right now I am leaning away from him. Malagacy: Another Pletcher trainee, this colt did not race as a 2-yo and we know what that means. The last colt to win the Derby without racing as a 2-yo was Apollo in 1882 so given that stat I cannot play this colt. Besides he also has a dosage index of 6.20, way over the 4.00 guideline. He was a close up 5 th in the Arkansas Derby where he was ridden by Javier Castellano, who looks like he will ride Gunnevera in the Derby. Given all these “negatives” I wouldn’t be surprised if Pletcher decides not to run him. Hence: Every year there seems to be a “wise guy” horse (whatever a “wise guy” is) and this year Hence might be that horse. Obviously those who think he has a chance, at a long price, are thinking of Mine That Bird. Like Mine That Bird, this colt also won the Sunland Derby, but maybe that’s where the similarities end. He ran a career best speed figure in his Sunland win so I suspect he will “bounce” off that effort. I’m not a big fan of betting colts in the Derby who win races in New Mexico (I actually thought Mine That Bird would run dead last in the 2009 Derby but he won at 50-1- Oh well). If you must bet him, bet him in the exotics – I will pass on him. Fast and Accurate: His claim to fame is that he won the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park over a synthetic track. This colt has had only one start on real dirt and ran 5 th in that effort and his front running style may compromise his chances in the Derby. Animal Kingdom also won the Spiral and then went on to win the 2011 Derby; however, Fast and Accurate is no Animal Kingdom. However, it should be noted that Fast and Accurate has been working well over the dirt track at the CD training center. I would be hard pressed to bet this colt but his trainer Mike Maker is no slouch so be my guest if you think he can get in the money. McCraken: This colt loves CD, scoring 3 wins in 3 starts at the oval. He has never been out of the money in 5 career starts but faltered in the Bluegrass Stakes as the 8-5 favorite when he was closer to the pace than usual. He lost to Irap and Practical Joke in that race. This son of Ghostzapper is a dual-qualifier, has a nice looking dosage profile and retains the services of Brian Hernandez in the irons (see Girvin). He has won all his races coming from off the pace and if he gets the right pace scenario he should have a say in the outcome. His trainer, Ian Wilkes, is not having a very good year winning with only 7% of his mounts and this is Ian’s first Derby entrant as a trainer (see Girvin and Gunnevera), though he was the assistant trainer to Carl Hafzger in 2007 and should have gained some knowledge on handling the Derby from that experience. Though McCraken only as two starts this year, he should be one of the top three choices and must be respected in spite of his trainer’s shortcomings. Battle of Midway: This is another colt that did not race as a 2-yo (see Malagacy) and the Derby will be his 5 th race in 15 weeks so I will have to pass on him. However, A) He does have a nice dosage profile with representation in each of the 5 categories, B) He has never been out of the money in 4 career starts, C) Made a good run in the SA Derby, and, D) Is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Even with those positives, I can’t play him. Patch: Another of the Pletcher armada and another colt who did not race as a 2-yo (see Malagacy and Battle of Midway) and he only has 3 career starts. He has never been out of the money in those three starts but I can’t bet a colt who is only a maiden winner. He ran 2 nd to Girvin in the LA Derby but Todd should not run him in the KY Derby. Battalion Runner: Yet another possible Pletcher entry who is lightly raced, never out of the money in 4 career starts and probably should skip the Derby. He was a good 2 nd to Irish War Cry in the Wood as the race favorite (how the hell did that happen?). His breeding is good but the race isn’t run on bloodlines alone, I will pass on this one. Untrapped: The 2 nd Asmussen colt in the top 20 (see Hence), has only a maiden win to his name and has been beaten by the likes of Classic Empire, Lookin At Lee, Malagacy, Sonneteer, and Girvin in his last 3 starts. He donned blinkers for the first time in his last start and they didn’t seem to help. Mike Smith rode him in his last race and is now going to ride Girvin. He has been in the money in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts -the lone out of the money finish was when he wore blinkers. Will he keep the blinkers on in the Derby and if he does or doesn’t I don’t think it will matter. I get the feeling that this colt is still trying to find himself and the First Saturday in May is not the time to see what you got. I will pass. So that does it for the current top twenty colts, but things can change and some colts will withdraw from the race (as suggested in some of my comments on specific colts). So I will give you some bonus coverage of a few more colts just in case. Lookin At Lee: Another Asmussen colt that looks similar to Untrapped. He put blinkers on 4 starts ago and it doesn’t seem like they did much to move him forward. He had 6 starts as a 2-yo so he has a solid foundation under him. He also had a nice layoff from November to February - I usually like to see a break like this between a colt’s 2nd and 3 rd year. However, he has been beaten by Classic Empire 3 times and has also been behind Malagacy, Soneteer, Untrapped and Practical Joke when he faced them. I think he’s a notch below others in the race so I will pass. Soneteer: Like State of Honor this colt has 10 lifetime starts but is still a maiden (at least State of Honor has 1 win in his career). Also, this colt has 5 starts this year - too many for a Derby starter. He was 112 to 1 odds in the Rebel Stakes against Malagacy (though he did run 2nd ), plus his dosage index is a little high at 5.00. I think it would be unwise for trainer Keith Desormeaux to “throw this guy to the wolves”. Please don’t run him! Royal Mo: I don’t like Soneteer’s chances in the Derby and this colt ran 9 th in the Rebel behind Soneteer that day so it stands to reason that I shouldn’t like this guy’s chances either. Royal Mo won the GR3 Bob & Beverly Lewis at SA over 4 other colts including Irap but he didn’t beat much that day. He was a close up 3 rd in the SA Derby behind Gormley and Battle of Midway so does that give his supporters hope? It doesn’t give me any. If he gets in I wish him the best but I will not bet him. Local Hero: The 4 th Asmussen trainee on this list, he has never been out of the money in 5 lifetime starts but he only has a maiden win to his credit. Girvin, Patch and Untrapped all finished ahead of him in his last 3 starts; you can review what I think of them and that will give you an idea of where I stand with this guy. He seems to want to either have the lead or be up close and both of those running styles will not serve him well on May 6 th . If he gets in I will not be putting any money on him. Okay, so there you have my reviews of the potential entrants in the race, what now? How do I approach this Derby so that I can make some hard earned money? Well for starters, I like a colt that had a freshening between his 2 and 3 year old campaigns and a colt that seems to be peaking at the right time. Well that puts me on Always Dreaming. I hope he goes off around 5-1 since I think Classic Empire will be the favorite at around 7-2. Todd is in a good position to win his 2 nd Derby with this guy so my win money will likely be on Always Dreaming. I always like to box a few other contenders with my win bet so I will play a 4-horse exacta box using Always Dreaming, McCraken, Gormley and Gunnevera . Yeah I know what you’re all saying “Isn’t that a chalky exacta box Ed?” You are right it looks chalky but with a 20 horse field the odds will be spread out and hopefully I will cash a decent ticket. I will also play a 5 - horse trifecta box using Always Dreaming, McCraken, Gormley, Hence and Classic Empire. Noticed that I dropped Gunnevera from the tri box and added Classic Empire and Hence. I am assuming that Gunnevera will run either 1 st or 2 nd or be off the board. If I feel lucky I could play a 6- horse superfecta and add Girvin to the mix – I’ll just have to see how I’m doing. Anyway I might not bet this way at all when I get to the window Saturday evening, as always I reserve the right to change my mind and not bet anything like this. Anyway, good luck to everyone no matter how you bet. Dosage explained: Dosage theory attempts to predict ability based upon the analysis of superior male ancestors in a horse’s pedigree and is used by gamblers and breeders to forecast the likely distance over which a horse will excel. A colt with a dosage index of less than 4.00 is considered to have an excellent chance of successfully running the 1-1/4mi distance of the Derby. A dosage profile is divided into five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional. The categories correspond to a range of distance potential from Brilliant (highest speed and least stamina) to Professional (lowest speed and greatest stamina). Classic represents the “ideal" balance of speed and stamina. For many years through the 1980’s and 1990’s dosage was all you really needed to focus on to come up with the contenders. In the last 20 years some horses with a dosage index of more than 4.00 have won the Derby. However, I don’t believe that dosage should be overlooked when trying to find the colt that can get the distance.
So I had an amazing Derby trip. So I decided to do a Diary of just what went on plus an AMA for anyone who wants to know how we did it. Day one: We left from Columbus, OH on thursday. We stay every year in Covington, KY just over the bridge from Ohio. We went big this year and rented a limo for our thursday night party. First stop: Jeff Ruby's The Precinct. A yearly tradition of one of the best steaks around. Pricey? yes. Minimum steak price is like 45 dollars. But really worth it. The Freddie salad is almost as good, plus the mac and Cheese is amazing. From there we go to Hollywood casino in Lawerenceburg, IN. Next year we probably will go to the newer HorseShoe casino. Lost about 100 dollars playing 3 card pokeblackjack. Had so much fun. Drunken night ended up at WaffleHouse. around 3 am. Day 2: We recovered from the night before the whole day. Got a burger at Terry's Turf Club. It wasn't the best I've ever had, but not the worst either. Night out on Mainstrauss Village for some drinks and Fish and Chips at the Cock and Bull pub. Ended the night at Arnie's club at Newport on the levee. Another drunken Waffle House trip. Day 3: Derby day!!! Got an early start, left the Hotel at 9 am. Made it to our parking place on Evelyn ave, the Baptist church around 1015. Got into Churchhill around 1030 just in time to bet race 3. Our seats were amazing. Section 120. Got a Lobster Roll, which I look forward to every year. My friend and I were splitting .50 trifecta box tickets for 6 dollars each. we picked 4 horses off the DRF and the Racing form I got for 3 dollars. We ended up hitting two tri's during the day and split the winnings. 73 dollars on one and 32 dollars on the other. Before the Derby I placed the horseracing trifecta ticket and placed all my bets. I bet 106 on my personal bets. We all picked a horse and placed a 1 dollar superfecta box ticket for 24 dollars. The race before the Derby was amazing. Wise Dan refused to lose. I bet against him on a couple tickets so at the start of the race I was rooting against him...by the top of the stretch I was screaming for him to win. Gutsy performance. Soooo Good. Derby time!!!! All four of us picked Chrome. We have never all picked the same horse. I usually put 30 across the board on my derby horse. But this year I only did 10. I used the rest of the money on exotic tri's. I also picked 5 long shot horses and put 2 across the board on them. It paid off. I had 17 wps that paid around 40 dollars while my chrome ticket paid 86. I ended up 20 up on the derby. My friend picked this exotic tri from the DRF. It was a 42 dollar ticket that paid 865 total. So excited for him. After we cashed our tickets we had an old boss who goes every year to the derby. He was in a section over from us that costs 25k every five years just for the seat license to buy the tickets. Right on the track, front row. He invited us over to watch the last two races. So we jumped the barrier over to his box. It was spectacular. We fed the escort horses, or outrider horses. Got access to the second floor grandstand which is crazy. We bet the last two races. The last race started right in front of us. Pretty amazing. Time to Leave the track: We had no idea how to get out. We were in a section that is not accessible to normal people. So we took these steps down from the section we were squatting in. It led us to the path the horses take to get on the track. We were part giddy kids, part scared we were going to get arrested. The road opened up to the Paddock!! At this point there were no horses, only about 10 people, a few camera crews filming wrap ups and us. We spotted Baffert and my friend got a picture with him. Took some pics and got out of there. The security were shaking their heads as we left, they knew we weren't supposed to be there. A quick stop to get a pic on the red carpet and we were gone!!! Here is an Album of the pics we took: http://imgur.com/a/jQM1S AMA: ask me whatever you want! how we did it? what it cost? anything is on the table.. Thanks!!
When you make a superfecta, you can generally assume you will be making a bet that will pay you a lot of money back on a small wager. In fact, a $2 superfecta wager will pay you at least $100 a majority of the time. But how much you will get is generally a mystery until you see the final prices. This isn’t the case for a win bet. Making a bet can be confusing. Let us help! Follow these simple steps to figure out how much to bet. Select a bet amount in the left column. Select a bet type in the right column. Select the horses to include in the wager. The total cost of the ticket will appear next to the words Ticket Cost Straight Superfecta Betting. The simplest of all superfecta wagering strategies, a straight superfecta bet covers the least amount of combinations for the least amount of money. A straight superfecta bet 2-3-5-6, usually offered in a minimum denomination of $2, would cost you $2, and would win only if the final order of finish was 2-3-5-6. Example: To purchase a $1 Superfecta Box using four horses, tell the clerk: "$1 Superfecta Box 11-2-3-4." The following examples are for a $1 Superfecta Box: 4 horse box ( 24 combinations) Cost $ 24 5 horse box (120 combinations) Cost $120 Most players use a wheel or a box when betting the superfecta. It is just very difficult to hit a straight superfecta bet. Calculating the Cost of your Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 Tickets. There is a simple formula for calculating the cost of a multi-race wager like the Pick 6. You simply multiply the number of horses used in each leg of the
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