Teasers – The Basics, the Variables, and the Payouts

How to Win at Sports Betting

Want to understand the best information on how to win at sports betting? Just a single amount of time in the US leading professional sports history features a team had an excellent year old. Nobody is really flawless. The purpose is that losses will happen in sports betting. The most useful sports bettors on earth infrequently acquire more than 55 percent of their full time. Winning in sports gambling is not hard. Period. There’s a reason sports betting is this a profitable company that’s currently becoming popular in most locations. With that said, a few sports bettors do triumph and acquire plenty of dollars! It is from hopeless for a successful sports bettor. However, as clear, with no correct knowledge and techniques, it won’t happen. These fundamentals, in sequence, if grant the novice sports bettor an opportunity to develop into successful.
Keeping up a solid grasp on bankroll direction is readily in comparison to the real-life experience of purchasing a brand-new vehicle. When an individual would like to get a brand-new car, he needs to get in the dealership using a notion of just how far he wants to pay and how far he could pay off. On average, both of these are different amounts. However, the purpose is he wants to get into the dealership using a budget. Do you know what happens when he does not? Inevitably, he will go from this automobile having a half-smile on his head, because he’ll have a new vehicle for nearly double as far as he wanted to invest. It pays to have a budget in place.
The specific same is said for sports betting; bankroll direction is vital. To begin with, specify a spending budget. When a business budget is not put, it could on occasion be almost inevitable to pay more cash than could be afforded. Self-control is almost always a significant secret of sports betting, and establishing funding may be a lifesaver.
Together with establishing funding, actually managing that funding is essential. Evidently, falling half of their cover an elongated time period using a single underdog to mad a popular probably isn’t the smartest option. Can it cover off? Sure. But more times than not, this underdog will definitely lose, and also all of the amount of money budgeted to make use of will probably undoubtedly be lost with that. It’s a recognized belief with each bet, merely a small number of their allocated budget needs to really be wagered. Such a thing in 1 to 5% of their funding each bet is okay.
Placing an Excellent Betting Portfolio
Placing a good Sports Betting portfolio could be trying for players that are new. Quite often, inexperienced bettors find one particular match that they enjoy and also put much of this budgeted money about it. When just a single bet is in drama, fortune and other things can play a massive roll in the end result. But if five or even five distinct kinds of wagers come in drama (notably with various matches), the bettor is quite a bit more inclined to acquire true outcomes while in the long run.
Some reason new bettors may fight to set a diverse gaming portfolio is that it is not simple to achieve that. That isn’t always the situation. It all will take is dispersing the budgeted money from unique bets in distinct locations.
Some experts may provide certain proportions of funding which ought to really be wagered on different bet types. Every bet is only a bit different. Having said this, every bet involves something besides the bettor. Obviously, it could be smart to bet that a greater proportion of funding onto a superior profit/low hazard prospect. Obviously, it could be unwise to even bet that a sizable proportion of funding at a really low profit/high hazard prospect. Thus, some times more of a bettor’s funding is going to be spent on one area instead of a second. A second week, it may be reverse osmosis the alternative way.
No matter a bettor’s profile needs to contain a wholesome mixture of these stakes: contrary to the spread, money line, oveunder, futures, props, and also certainly will comprise parlays and teasers. Using a diverse portfolio of stakes, the bettor is a great deal more inclined for authentic, quality outcomes as opposed to changing everything to a bet.
Finding stakes with a fantastic possibility to acquire money is something different which can be rough for players. There really are a number of things to remember while trying to find and considering a bet.
Understand the value and return on investment
Have a look at additional articles on Betting Pros regarding the potential value and return on investment to get the complete comprehension of exactly what those 2 things are. On the web calculators and tools provide bettors using easy tools to make use of to provide help. A fast-online search, together with the input of a couple of amounts, is it requires. Evidently, a bettor wishes to own high numbers as you possibly can for the two of these amounts. Ranked EV and ROI on possible stakes might help new betters find potentially excellent investments.
Search for value selections, maybe not winners
That one could seem just a bit funny. But, consider this way. 1 bettor could acquire nine out often stakes, with precisely the exact same quantity of money added to each individual bet, and lose money. Still, another better could acquire one out often stakes, with precisely the exact same sum of money added to each individual bet again, and also win funds. Sports gambling is an all-around value. Though the very first bettor comes with a 90% success rate, everybody else would preferably be the 2nd bettor and acquire money. When a bettor knows EV and ROI, appreciate selections can more readily be seen.
Possess a Very Long memory
Possessing a brief memory is just one of those utter worst qualities a sports bettor could possess. The NFL always provides flawless examples; teams may smash it 1 week, simply to get defeated the following week. A very long memory helps players to see potential wagers at which odds-makers might have been only a touch too short while.
Bet at the Right time
In the early stages, chances are unchanged and fresh by any people's trends. Sports-books have a tendency to wish to maintain things as much as you can for themselves, even though, and significant money towards one side or the other may induce odds-makers to make alterations. Clearly this is sometimes grounds to bet early until the likelihood vary, however it may be rationale to bet overdue, too. When a bettor finds odds apparently skewing too much in 1 direction through the entire time in front of a match, this also can be considered a perfect chance to battle upon. Betting premature or catching opportunities are just two of those better days to bet.
Research Recommendations
Research is essential in sports gambling. That might seem obvious, in the current modern world, people desire results using as little effort as you possibly can. Sports gambling is simply like everything else on the planet. When your bettor works hard, he or she’s got a higher likelihood of succeeding. Sports gambling research may incorporate anything from looking into stats and watching matches, to calculating return on investment. To simplify all of it, break down the research into two distinct types: sports comprehension and amounts comprehension.
The particular “sport” side of playing sports gambling is most likely what many casual fans like. This may include things like watching games, researching numbers, observation player and team trends, etc. For sports bettors, this can be valuable to concentrate on a single game, since the time that it requires to achieve so research for numerous sports might be overwhelming. For an effective sports bettor, have a fantastic knowledge base of this game. Put at the time that it will take to think about yourself as an “expert” at this match. It’s going to probably pay off.
The amounts side of this search for sports gambling may be more stressful. Assessing different game outlines, calculating EV and ROI, and finding amazing values might be much more important compared to sports knowledge, yet. Actually, locating the most effective odds from various sportsbooks are also the difference between losing and winning a bet. Find an Excellent value, locate the best chances for this bet, and wager off.
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Sports Betting Online - The Things You Must Keep In Mind When Playing

If you're just How to calculate a parlay?, there are several things that you simply must essentially confine mind. Your knowledge will function your tool in ensuring that some time , effort and money spent thereon are going to be productive.
Implement Good Money Management
It applies not just in sports betting, but in all pastimes you perform that involves wagering money. Money management will help in guarding your bankroll and in keeping you away from bankruptcy. Betting all your money is never a smart decision and it will also not help you in being a successful long term player. Spend only what is okay for you to lose in case it is not your lucky day to play.
Look And Shop Around
Odds offered in online sports betting differ from one sports book to another. Therefore, shopping around will be very helpful in finding which one offers the best odds and the best deals.
Pay Attention To Underdogs
Not because a player or a team is the crowd's favorite, it already means that it will always win the game. Underdogs, too, can have the edge over the favorites depending on how the game is played. Do not underestimate the capability of underdogs.
Know The Bets You Can Make
There are many sorts of bets which will be made when wagering money in online sports betting. Knowing what bets you'll make is additionally another important knowledge that you simply got to obtain. Below are a number of the bets utilized in sports betting.
Single or Straight Bet is the most common and the simplest bet that you can make. This means that you will bet on who will win at a particular game.
Point Spread allows betting on the winner from selections made equal through appropriate allocations to the losing team. Essentially, you will wager on certain points by which the winning team will defeat the underdog.
The Moneyline sets up the probabilities for every team; yet is inversely related to what could have been the point spread.
Total Bet refers to the sum of the points earned by the two teams, inclusive of the scores they earned during overtimes.
Over or Under bet also involves the sum of the scores made by the two teams. However, in wagering, you'll back whether the sum is over or under the entire amount indicated by the chances maker.
Accumulator Or Parlay is a multiple bet. You can make numerous selections at a time on quite two games with the intention of pressing the winnings of the primary to the succeeding wins. To win the parlay, you need to win each selection. For tie, cancelled or postponed games, the parlay will be automatically lowered by just one selection. The double parlay can turn into a straight kind of bet; the triple parlay can become a double. If you win a parlay; it can definitely yield enormous money.
The teaser bet is similar to a parlay; except that you have an alternative to add/subtract points from one or several spread bets.
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Game Theory: FNaF AR, What Have We Brought Home? (fan-made script)

DISCLAIMER: I am not MatPat, and I do not own The Game Theorists or Game Theory. This script was written as a way to present a theory I wanted to show you guys. I designed it to look and sound like an episode of Game Theory to make it easier for me to word my thoughts.
[Video opens on shot of couch. MatPat enters, sits down while slow-clapping.]
Well. No sooner than I release a new video on Five Nights at Freddy's that Scott decides to throw another teaser into the mix. It's almost predestined, isn't it? Like, every time either Scott or myself makes something new for the FNaF community, the other one of us is right around the corner, waiting to strike. It's like the Freddy Vs. Foxy cutscenes from Ultimate Custom Night.
But, you know what? I'm not gonna sit here and wait for FNaF AR to come out so I can theorize about it. I think that there's enough information in the teasers and trailers provided to us to let us piece together the main concept of this new game. Who knows? Maybe I'll get the entire game's plot correct in this one video before it even comes out! Or... it could be like that part in our Sister Location video where we guessed that Ennard was the Puppet. Fingers crossed... let's get started.
[FNaF version of Game Theory intro plays.]
Hello, Internet! Welcome to Game Theory, where we've been living in shadows, and now we're going to come find the truth.
So, FNaF AR just got its 3rd and probably final trailer. As per usual, Scott hid a bunch of stuff all throughout the video, and once again, the FNaF fandom is in disarray, debating about who's sending the text messages, whose bowtie is on the table, or whether or not the voice we hear is actually Freddy.
[Audio of voice saying "I've planned something special just for you."]
I mean, it could be Freddy, but Kellen Goff, the voice of Funtime Freddy and FredBear has stated that that's not his voice in the trailer. But, that's not what we're here to talk about. Today, we're taking a stab at trying to predict where this new AR game is taking us. Because, even with early access having been promised, there's no telling how long we'll be waiting. Hopefully, I'll be able to get this theory out before the game releases in, like, 5 minutes. Scott, you've earned yourself a reputation.
So, to begin with, one of the most hotly debated topics regarding this game is simply, "What's going to happen?" Common ideas I've seen center around animatronics leaking from the game into the real world, like how Glitchtrap was able to escape from FNaF VR. But, I gotta be honest, I don't think that's what's gonna happen. If you look at the teasers we've gotten, there's more hints pointing toward another possible story.
If you look closely at the background in the gameplay trailer, you'll see a couple of posters hanging on the wall. One of them, which has a picture of Freddy on it, says "Welcome to the Fazbear Entertainment Service Program!" What does "service" mean in this context? Are we gonna be fixing the robots like Parts and Service mode in the VR game? Well, the other poster sheds some more light on this. "Our animatronics have been specially designed to ensure you'll never be alone again!" Apart from sounding very stalkerish, this description actually gives us exactly the information we need to determine a general premise.
My best guess right now as to what FNaF AR is about is this: Fazbear Entertainment, in an attempt to further improve their public image, has now set up a program that will work separately from their restaurants. Their plan is to allow people to rent animatronics designed to look like the iconic characters and have them help out wherever help is needed. It'd be like having a personal assistant, if your personal assistant were a robotic fox and spoke like a pirate.
Basically, people who order an animatronic can have them help out around the house, like if they need help walking from room to room, or if they can't quite reach that box on the top shelf, or even if they just need some company. The program would likely only be available to the elderly or people who are handicapped in some way, be it physically or mentally. The player would ultimately get their hands on access to this service due to some weird mistake or a loophole. Trust me, after witnessing the likes of Angsty Teen, a jar of pickles as the ultimate prize, and more Exotic Butters than there are jumpscares in this series, you can bet I have a good idea of the shenanigans that get us to this latest nightmare.
The Reddit post by u/5541ggnik001 made to coincide with the newest teaser's upload even hints at this sort of service, with mention of handling actual animatronics that "we need to show. . . a little respect" and "even left the parking lot". If this game deals only with digital characters who supposedly escape into reality, then this post makes no sense. If they'd left the parking lot as the post says, that would mean that they've already begun manifesting in the real world, which should bring the project to a screeching halt and prevent the game from ever getting to us in the first place.
Now, surely some of you are wondering, "What about the teaser images with Freddy, Foxy, and Springtrap? What about Michael's voice in the trailer? Is the voice in the trailer actually Freddy?" I'll get to those, or at least most of those, in a bit. But first, I wanted to address one of the bigger mysteries surrounding the second teaser: the numbers.
At the end of the disembodied voice teaser, we're shown a bunch of numbers changing rapidly before the screen cuts to darkness. Now, people have been trying to assign meanings to the different numbers that appear, and I certainly agree that some of them are hints or maybe just references, but I think it's reaching a little too far to suggest that everything means something. 5.4107 ? What on earth could that be linked to? Unless I'm looking at it wrong, and it's a set of coordinates or it's supposed to be put into a graphing calculator or something, there's no need to look into all of these numbers.
Now, there are some that I want to draw attention to. The first number we see, although it's off-center, is 10.20 . Some of the theorists on this subreddit have made the connection to FNaF 2's ultimate challenge, the fan-titled 10/20 mode, where you faced all of the animatronics at their maximum difficulty. Now, considering that the next number to appear is 11.1987 , the date Jeremy Fitzgerald receives his check in FNaF 2, this is actually a pretty smart idea. But, since the first teaser said the game would be released this month, October 2019, my thought is that this is our release date.
I know, I know, initially, it seemed like Halloween would be the day of release, and more recently, people have taken notice of the 11:11 time on the phone and the 1,111 messages you receive from "C," more on that eventually, but the first trailer flat-out told us it would be this month. If the game had been delayed until November 11, as many assume, then why would the phone say 11:11 in the first teaser? There's no way Scott could have known the game would be delayed, and he wouldn't have lied to us about which month it would release in. Therefore, since we've just gotten a bunch of info regarding the game and presumably a final teaser, I think it's relatively safe to say that October 20 (incidentally, tomorrow) is our release date. Or, at the very least, it may be the start of the Early Access Pass distribution we've been hearing about.
Now, back to the plot of the game. One of the most revealing teasers we've gotten for FNaF AR is a set of screenshots taken during gameplay. They show Freddy, Foxy, and Springtrap as well as our UI for most of the game. There's a battery display, which may be tied to our device's charge? Probably not, but I'll return to that. There's also a toggle for a flashlight, which is probably just an in-game light to illuminate the animatronics (but for real, though, I would LOVE to see it actually activate your phone's flashlight, which would still reflect off of the characters in the game). Lastly, and most obviously, we have a big blue button for, you guessed it, administering those sweet, sweet controlled shocks.
[Gameplay footage from Sister Location appears, showing the Controlled Shock button being pressed as the sound effect plays.]
So, if this game does indeed have you renting animatronics to help with your day-to-day life, then there's a couple of problems with these pictures. First of all, why would we need to zap these robots that we've apparently paid to have help us? And secondly, what on earth is Springtrap, old Willy A. the murderer, doing in our house? Well, I've got answers for both of those questions.
In response to the Controlled Shock button, this can be explained as a—
[Audio of Henry in FFPS saying "company issued taser" plays]
—in case the animatronic you ordered isn't wanting to behave itself. Hey, if these things are smart enough to know which of your many medications you need from your medicine cabinet, odds are they're also intelligent to the point of almost having their own personalities and wanting to do their own thing. Fazbear Entertainment knows this, and so they supply a taser, depicted as a lightning bolt button on your device, to help you out when they aren't doing what you need them to.
Now, the battery meter. What's that about? Honestly, this one could tell you a lot of things, from how much longer you can flash your light to how many more times you can electrocute OG Freddy, because he totally deserves it. My take on this is that it's our new equivalent to the clock in previous FNaF games. This battery represents how much power your animatronic has, and when it runs up, the character will shut down and be unable to help or harm you. At this point, they're probably sent back to Fazbear Entertainment so you can order another one.
This would be a great substitute for the countdown to 6 AM, because now you're in the real world. You can look at a clock and know the time, and there's no way Scott's gonna make you sit through six real hours just to win at the game. If the animatronics are limited by how long they can run for, then we have a perfect reason for them to suddenly stop attacking you once time is up. They literally can't. They're out of charge.
I also think this can be used as a hidden tutorial early on in the game. My thought is that, for the first bit of gameplay, any animatronics you order function perfectly. The inevitable voice of HandUnit will explain to you that you only have so long to use the robots before they power off, which teaches you the mechanics of it before something goes wrong and they're out for blood.
That's the other idea I had about this game. At first, you're only going to be sent 100% Fazbear-approved animatronic assistants, but after a few normal visits, you'll start receiving things that aren't quite what you ordered. Apart from animatronics that are bugged out with code they aren't supposed to have, I think there'll be a few items you weren't meant to get or even see. Items that further develop the world of Freddy's.
Enter the Springtrap teaser. What possible reason is there for William "You Can Still See My Lower Jaw" Afton to be in your house alongside friendly assistant robots? He snuck into the warehouse with the other animatronics and got sent to you instead of the character you wanted. This would mean that this game takes place before FNaF 6, where he dies in the fire under the new Freddy's. Heck, it could also explain his change in appearance! He could have gathered pieces of other characters and put them together to make a better suit for himself (the name ScrapTrap becomes much more appropriate if this is true).
This also explains another detail fans have been trying to figure out for a while. See, the official trailer also had one scene that sent the Internet into confusion. After the camera pans closer to the red eyes in the closet, you hear Michael's iconic line of "I've been living in shadows," but a little more rough-sounding. Then, after the screen flashes and Freddy starts making for the exit, for a brief moment you can see lines of text that say, " to survive , listen carefully , put me back , and together again ." This makes it sound like Michael approached the player, looking for help.
That would seem to place these events after Sister Location when he gets scooped and vomits Ennard into the sewers, but before FNaF 6 when Henry tries to end everything by torching the place. Given the appearance of Springtrap, who must have been released from the safe room he was locked in, this must also be after FNaF 3, as well. But isn't FNaF VR after Pizzeria Simulator? Yes, seeing as Scrap Baby appears in plush form, the virtual experience must come after FNaF 6. But nothing ever said that FNaF AR had to come after FNaF VR.
My guess is that, after the revelation that William Afton is still alive (that may come to Henry during or shortly after this game), Fazbear Entertainment decides to begin re-branding, starting by launching a service program, then building a restaurant to lure in Afton and Ennard, followed by hiring the indie developer and suing him to make everything that happened seem like just a story, and finally producing their own game to poke fun at the "lies" that have been told about themselves. All of this to end William's crimes, and to give the company a fresh, new start.
So, what about the fire? If Michael is still weak to the point of needing to be put back together, then who lit up Fazbear's Fright? And why does he come to us for help, of all people? Ultimately, these are questions that will probably be left unanswered, as either the full game or early access will probably be released tomorrow.
There are still plenty of mysteries unsolved, like why "C" (probably Cassidy) is trying to find the player, why there's a purple phone in-between frames during the last teaser, and WHO FOR THE LOVE OF EGGS BENEDICT VOICES FREDDY NOW? All of that, I can't explain right now. Really, I wanted to be able to get this theory out before the presumed release date, so I wasn't able to put as much thought into it as I wanted to. Hopefully, though, I'm at least right about some points so I can say "I told you so" later.
But, until then, it's all just a theory. A GAME Theory! Thanks for watching!
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Early NFL Week 12 Teaser

-1 Pats +3 Titans +9 Rams +9 Packers
1 unit to win 2.65
I like this a lot. Done my HW on it.
submitted by Indianmirage to sportsbook [link] [comments]

To improve my bluffing game, i wrote a huge guide on basic mathemetical bluffing

edit: there's no tl;dr at the bottom
What hands do we want to bluff? Often times, people (like myself) over estimate our ability to read a situation, thinking such things as "he showed weakness." As beginneintermediate players, this should rarely be enough information for us to try a bluff. So what should we be looking for?
In this guide, I aim to 'solve' intermediate level bluffs: essentially the transition from bluffing on instinct to bluffing from a position that guarantees +EV. Let's ask our first and foremost question?
What makes a bluff +EV? Simply put, that the times that it works garners you enough profit to make up for the times it doesn't. As with any move in poker, we can't guarantee profit (except maybe playing the absolute coconuts, but even then the argument could be made that you get exploitatively folded), so we have to make decisions that in the long run will always run profitably for us. Let's consider an example bluff.
You've double barreled a board and are considering bluffing the river(with air). You've been in position and have been getting check/called. Let's ignore what's on the board, and pretend for a second that you have telekenitic powers. There is a (fairly standard) 33 blinds in the pot. You know that if you bet 3/4 pot, you'll get villain to fold 60% of the time. Is this a profitable bluff?
Math time! You are risking 25BB (24.75 to be exact, but let's round up) to potentially win 33 BB. Six out of ten times, you make 33BB, giving you a gain of 198BB. Four times you get called, and lose 25BB for a total of 96BB loss. This puts us at +EV, since we look to be in profit by 102BB! Of course, if we could just magically divine how often a bluff would work, this guide would be unnecessary. The magic question then becomes, how can we figure out this "rate of success" number without the use telekinesis? Well keep reading, and we'll figure this out together.
In the previous case, we didn't know the board. Let's go ahead and imagine context and a board. UTG opens for 3xBB, action folds to us (BU). We have JTs, and are facing an ok reg who opens a little wide. We call. SB and BB fold. Flop comes A-Q-5r, giving us the gut shot straight draw. Villain checks. We place a bet of 2/3 pot into the semi-wet board. Villain calls.
Turn is random 6. Villain checks, we bet 3/4 pot. (Let's ignore this potentially questionable bet) He calls.
River is another 6. You are considering a pot sized bluff. Should you do it?
Let's try to figure out how we can calculate the chance of villain folding. The way we can do this is by listing out what possible hands he'd CALL us with, and the amount of hands he'd FOLD us with. As a note, this idea ignores that villain would have folded his weaker ranges: we are considering his entire range.
First, what are all of villains hands that JT blocks? Since villain is playing a little wide, we can assume we block these potential hands in his range: AJ, QJ, AT, QT, TT, and JJ.
Next: what hands will villain probably be betting for value? (This slightly differs from calling in that, if he were in position, he would certainly be betting them himself) This reasonably gives us, pretty much just: AK, A5-2s. Why so few combinations? Couldn't he have AA, AQ, QQ, 55, or sometimes even 66? Well, yes, but also the betting line would certainly be different. If he flopped the world, you have to remember he is a reg trying to get the most money, not to be a slow playing fish. There are exceptions to this, like if you are over bluffing and he's trying to trap you, but thats a conversation for a different time. I firmly believe that these stronger hands and pocket pairs would have at least raised the turn, lead out the river, or maybe even just ship it at some point.
Since there's an ace on the board already, AK has 12 possibilities. A5s depends on whether or not the boarded ace and 5 are the same suit. I'm gonna assume they're are, which gives us 3 more combos. A4-2s adds another 9 possibilities.
This gives us 24 hands that are reasonably beating us and likely calling our triple barrel. Now let's calculate how many hands are reasonably getting here and folding. If we consider villains full 'wide' UTG range, were looking at T9s, 98s, and maybe 87s. Adding any more combinations would require giving villain more opening combinations. One more problem. We block villains T9 folding range with our JT. Unfortunately, as 98 and 87 must be suited connectors, this only gives six hands that villain is folding.
As is, this leaves 6 hands that villain folds and 24 hands that he calls. That's just slightly better than 25%! But guess what, it gets even worst for us. I am going to introduce a concept called "the hero factor." I will define the hero factor as "the chance that villain will call you with a marginal hand." This is a number very subject to fluctuation, and is namely controlled by two things: your table image,marginal hands in their range, and your skill IN RELATION TO YOUR OPPONENT.
I think this is fairly self explanatory. Table image is just whether people perceive that you are bluffing like crazy, super tight, or somewhere in between. The farther you get towards a bluff maniac, the more you'll get heroed, and the further you get towards nit, the less you'll get heroed.
To explain "marginal hands in their range", let me propose this hypothetical. You have a villain who only plays AA or AK. Barring probability, you can be certain that in any given hand, you are facing a 50% chance of him having AA, and a 50% chance of him having AK. On the other hand, you only play QQ and 2-6o. You play one board, all day long, and you only get to play from the river. The board is Q-T-3-4-3 rainbow. At any given point, villain knows that you beat him 50% of the time. Let's say you all ind every time. The only thing villain can do is flip a coin and call or fold. Over an infinite sample size, you would break even. I hope this explains better the principle that if your opponent had more marginal hands in their range, it will affect how often they are hero-ing.
In terms of relative skill, allow me to put forth this example. If I played Phil Ivey, I'm sure he'd hero every single one of my miserable buffs. Now when Phil plays Dwan... oh, well that's a different story all together.
In the case of this bluff, let's say that the chance to hero is around 30%. Why? Well I mostly made this number up, though it's based loosely in the idea that you probably don't have a maniac image, there are a bunch of hands in his marginal range (3 combos of KK and 10 combos of K-Q), and we probably have a slight skill edge. How does this factor affect how often our bluff works? Well, recall that there are 24 hands in his value range, 6 in his fold range, and now we add 13 to his marginal range. This means that of the 40% of the time he has a marginal hand, he is calling an additional 30%. So we can safely deduct another 12% from his folding range... our chance of success is now a measly 13%.
So what do we do in this situation? On this level of play, we should just be checking back and giving up the pot.
I have just attempted to give you the armaments: bread and butter essentially, of mathematical bluffing. What's the chance he has a value hand, what's in his folding range, and what's in his hero range. I'd recommend going through situations where you were thinking "should I bluff?" and work out the mathematics. Even if it's rough. If it comes out to about 70% fold rate, you're probably in the clear. This implies that their range is weaker than yours on the board. The more excercises you do, the faster you'll start to automatically recognize these situations without doing the math.
Now, as a teaser for what I want to write next time, what about if we bring in another level of play? What if we could do this in such a way that we could still win, despite a mathematical disadvantage? I'm going to introduce the concept of "telling a story". And before we attack it from a vague perspective, let's just look at it analytically.
What happens if you shove the river? The board is, remember, A-Q-5-6-6. This move would essentially polarize your range to 55, 66, 86s, 67s, 56s, and 46s. You now have have one of each pocket pair combos, and 2 combos for each suited gappeconnector.
This gives you 10 combos that crush him. The question is now: how much of his range blocks your range? He really only blocks you with 87s, and A5s. That's 5 combos (of the 42 combos in his range). Next: how often do you actually show up with this hands? Well, most his range blocks your Ax/Kx/Qx hands, but unfortunately this is only about half the hands we show up from the BU, and our crushing hands only appear about a third of the time. So what does a shove do? Well it should put the villain in a position where the odds of him calling are equal to or less than the odds of me having it. If you shove for 100BB, he has to be right 74% of the time. Recall that you have the hand ~33% of he time, so his call would be 8% away from being a +EV move. Of course, these 8% could be enough to waver him into hero calling, so you always have to experiment with the specific villain.
I hope this little tangent of mine was helpful to somebody. I was mainly going into the sort of baseline range v range analysis of whether to bluff and taking block into consideration. I think I'm gonna make a part two, where I'm going to introduce the concept of "getting to river with air", which is basically the easiest opportunities you'll have to bluff people off.
Anyway I definitely feel like I materialized a lot of my wavering thoughts and may have taught myself a thing or two. If anyone notices any errors in my thought process/math let me know!
edit2: changed c-bet to bet
submitted by Br0z1lla to poker [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/7/16 (Tuesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Added breakdown by month. Surprisingly, I have just realised that if you blindly tail every POTD that have at least 1 tailer, you would be better off than just tailing the first 3. LOL!
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1LWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/16/16 (Thursday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Boooom! 2 MOTD hits, but I am not on it :( Congrats to tonz86 and whorunit, bring us more!
POTD1WWLWLWWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLWWLWWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/3/16 (Friday)

Result out later for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Boooooom! All 3 POTDs Won! My pick finally got into POTD, with 3 votes ;)
Stay hot, JLR- and mcmurdles
POTD1WLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/2/16 (Thursday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Please result your tip if possible, by bolding W or L or P. This will help me a lot. :) Appreciated!
POTD1LWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 5/20/16 (Friday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
SPECIAL REQUEST: Please include Sport type, event, starting time and time zone, odds
E.g. NRL Souths -5.5 7.50pm AEST 1.90 or MLB White Sox 11AM PST -110
Booooooooooooooooooooooom! 3W! Good work, guys! 75% strike rate with ~7u return, holy, we are good!
POTD1WWLPLWWW
POTD2WLLWWWWL
POTD3WWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/6/16 (Monday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: LOL, after all L on Saturday, we are back to W mode yesterday! Yeeha!
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1WLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/15/16 (Wednesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: please ignore the question from Statnerd It is not genuine question. If this happens for another few days I will get mod to ban him (consider this a warning).
POTD1LWLWWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLWWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 5/26/16 (Thursday)

Result out now for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: 2 DOTD posts, no tailers and both lose :P and, I didn't jinx JLR- LOL
Special announcement I am trialing the DOTD and MOTD. I'll create a new post for DOTD and MOTD, you then have to reply to that post only. If you don't see the DOTD/MOTD post, do not post any DOTD/MOTD tips. The general area is for POTD only, this is to avoid cluttering the thread. The idea is; if you don't like DOTD/MOTD, just click the - button to shrink it.
POTD1WWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2PWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/9/16 (Thursday)

Result out now for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Another bad day yesterday....
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1LLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/11/16 (Saturday)

Result out now for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy:
POTD1WWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/4/16 (Saturday)

Result out later for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Boooooom! 2 days in a row, we have all top 3 POTDs winning! Good work, guys!
POTD1WWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 5/27/16 (Friday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Got totally killed yesterday! 1P and 2L in POTD, and both MOTD & DOTD lose too (well, that's to be expected as they are harder to hit).
Special announcement I am trialing the DOTD and MOTD. I'll create a new post for DOTD and MOTD, you then have to reply to that post only. If you don't see the DOTD/MOTD post, do not post any DOTD/MOTD tips. The general area is for POTD only, this is to avoid cluttering the thread. The idea is; if you don't like DOTD/MOTD, just click the - button to shrink it.
POTD1PWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/8/16 (Wednesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Shit day yesterday, all lost. I blame Spain.
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1LLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/5/16 (Sunday)

Result out later for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy:
POTD1WWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/10/16 (Friday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Finally back to form, 3 Wins!
POTD1WLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/1/16 (Wednesday)

Result out now for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Please result your tip if possible, by bolding W or L or P. This will help me a lot. :) Appreciated!
Back to form yesterday, with some still need to be resulted after tennis being rained out again. Build a roof for your tennis court please, France! Seriously, look at Australian Open, come on!
Kudos to JLR-, back to form again!
POTD1WLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/14/16 (Tuesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: please ignore the question from Statnerd It is not genuine question. If this happens for another few days I will get mod to ban him (consider this a warning).
POTD1LWLWWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLWWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Convert Odds to Probability and Probability to Odds using Excel 1X2 Home -- Draw -- Away: Expected Odds Calculation & Setting of Market Prices Is There Any Value in Betting 6-Point NFL Teasers? Horse Betting Calculator Probability Calculation Football Betting Tips explained

Teaser betting strategy is a topic I’ve covered in great detail here at TheSportsGeek.com. If you’re not familiar with teasers, I strongly encourage you to first read our article on teaser betting strategy, and then sweetheart teasers before continuing. Assuming you’re familiar with the concepts covered in those articles, the next area you might take an interest in is pleaser betting Best Sportsbooks > Best Teaser Sportsbooks. Football Teasers can be a weapon for the educated sports bettor. In the hands of a smart player, those 6 points can pick off targets with precision. But for the naive gambler, teaser points are like bullets in a gansta rap video. Bet calculator at oddschecker helps you work out odds and winnings for multiple bets. Combine the bets to calculate the acca and permutation betting totals betting sites, but what generally happens is that a push means that selection is effectively removed from the wager. If the Cowboys lost by exactly nine points, for example, then that selection wouldn’t count anymore. You’d be left with a two team teaser. If the other two results came in, then you would win at reduced odds of 10/11. THE HIGHEST TEASER BETTING ODDS CAN BE FOUND AT 5DIMES SPORTSBOOK. With teasers, all teams need to beat the adjusted spread for you to win. A $100 teaser in the above 3-team/5-point teaser would pay out $150 in winnings. Sportsbooks can vary on some of this, namely their exact payout schedule and other major concerns like whether a tie results

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Convert Odds to Probability and Probability to Odds using Excel

Sports Betting Tips: NFL Football Teaser Betting Strategy and Tips (How to Win at Teasers) - Duration: 4:30. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 2,736 views 4:30 The spreadsheet calculates true odds (expected probabilities). For each event the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices and the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown. Algorithm probability calculation football betting tips is useful tool for every player who place bets in bookies because helps to predict correctly results of football matches. https://youtu.be ... Free Fixed Odds Sports Betting Calculator - Duration: 8:47. pwhite2010 17,894 views. ... Guaranteed Free Bet Profit With Betting Calculator - Duration: 1:54. Free Bets 1,197 views. This video demonstrates how to convert odds to probability and probability to odds using Microsoft Excel. The equation for each conversion is reviewed and used in Excel to make the calculations.