Betting Against Public Opinion aka "Fading the Public

r/sportsbookextra: For more individual information

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Just who exactly are the UFC Ranking Panelists?

What News Sources Do These Panelist Represent?

Notes: The above went basically unchanged from 2016 - 2019. Oddly enough the MMA Weekly guys are the worst of the bunch...

New Ranking Panelists (added within the past year)

Notes: These new panelists were just added this year. Whenever UFC launched the update that made it difficult as fruck for fans to actually find the panelists individual ranking lists.

Conclusions:
After researching all of the journalists to make this post I'd say the most suspect is Romain Cadot (Vladusport) - which doesn't appear to be a real person. Christoffer Esping is also suspect, as he owns a shoe company - that is it.
Brian Hemminger of MMA Oddsbreaker is also suspect, as he works for an actual Oddsmaker - that is such a clear conflict of interest that there might actually be some legal implications that the UFC could get caught up in if the rankings can ever be proven to directly impact betting lines. This is such a giant oversight I can't believe that the UFC legal team hasn't already nixed this. I'm not even saying that Brian's rankings are corrupt or unreasonable - just that him working for an actual legitimate MMA oddsmaker is a big "How The Fuck Did The UFC Let This Happen" moment.
Both of the MMA Weekly guys seem to be trolling their rankings - or they are just that inept. Jeff Cain didn't even bothering updating his rankings for this week...and he rarely ever does, maybe he'll update once every other month or so, and sometimes he'll rank fighter who have been cut, retired, or inactive, meanwhile Ken Pishna is a fucking UFC shill who did exactly what the UFC told him to do in their little sparknotes memo!
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The drama in Canada continues as U Sports' decision to not extend eligibility to players affected by their odd, FB-only age cap rule causes backlash from all its coaches

Canada's university football (because "college" tends to mean high school up there) has been in a bit of a tizzy this week, as Canada's equivalent of the NCAA decided to cancel the 2020 season, extend eligibility to all players... except the chunk of players who will turn 25 years old prior to the 2021 season.
Age cap? In a weird quirk, football is the only university sport in U Sports with an age cap. Not basketball, not even hockey (granted, most talented players just go straight into amateur ranks).
300 players are affected across only 27 teams. This is as much due to the fact U Sports lets students have some amateuminor league ball. This also includes some grad transfers from the United States.
When we last left off, the association's interim-CEO, who appears to realize the opinion would be unpopular as soon as it was announced last week:
White said U Sports is not itching for a fight when it comes to this.
"If it’s challenged and it gets another review, I don’t hate that,” White said. “I would respect the ruling of the court just like I respect the amount of time and study that our board put into this before they made that decision. They did not make it lightly."
I'm not sure if it would go to court, but a team in the small AUS (Atlantic Canada) successfully sued to be in a playoff game a few seasons ago, so all bets are off when it comes to Canadian rules football.
So here's what's happened in the past several days:
The head coach of the University of Alberta, Chris Morris, stepped down as head of both a university football coaches' committee and a technical subcommittee in protest:
"I can't sit on a committee that's designed to guide policy that's going to be completely ignored," Morris told The Canadian Press on Friday.
"They didn't listen to what we were telling them. We told them the exact opposite to what they did."
No coach supports the ruling, and Morris tweeted out an open letter on behalf of the National Football Coaches Association (CUFCA):
As my final act as President of the National Football Coaches Association (CUFCA), I was asked by my peers to write an open letter to the public. The Canadian National Football Coaches Association is appalled by this ruling and will do everything in our power to have it reversed. Letter
This morning (Monday), U Sports released a statement that it is "processing" the feedback they received.
submitted by Honestly_ to CFB [link] [comments]

Story Time You Degenerate Fucks--Top 5 Novels of the 21st Century

A while back, one of the faithful, u/fuzzyblankeet, tried to start a book club, in which you fucks were somehow supposed to generate literary suggestions. The project was akin to asking a gaggle of sociopaths to share their feelings. There were some decent suggestions, but most of you held the understanding that literature started with Harry Potter and ended with Ready Player One. It was fucking embarrassing.
Time to get a little lesson in modern literature so you fucks can begin to understand why you make the poor decisions you do, and maybe get in touch with one or two of the synapses that try to muster some action potential whenever you try to suppress the time Daddy touched your no-no-zone. It might just help you understand why you're buying high and selling low like the rabble of idiots that you are.
We're just over twenty basis points into this god-forsaken century. Now is as good and arbitrary a time as ever to list my top five books of the 1/5 mark.
A lot of people make the distinction between favorite and best. I'm ambivalent on the matter, as you should be too, because finding objectivity within any rendering of our essentially conscious experience is the child of folly--though I'd expect nothing more from you bumbling lot of bairns. It's not that I much care anyway; my bias is what makes my taste, and my tastes inherently signal to my brain that I think more people should think like me. This is the kind of thinking that churns the democratic engine. God bless America.
So on with it then:
  1. A Naked Singularity, by Sergio De La Pava: The best self-published book of all time, period. As the story goes, De La Pava had tried over 100 agents before shelving the masterpiece, as it was too 'difficult' for us Americans, who need more time and brain-space to money-grub. It's particularly telling when a child of Colombian immigrants gives up. But his wife, Susanna, didn't. She published and promoted the thing herself. After selling tens of thousands of copies, it was picked up by the University of Chicago Press, which is obviously an odd placement for a mammoth Joycean effort. Anyhow, the novel follows a young Manhattan defense attorney, Casi--as Sergio was himself at the time of writing. In preparing a defense for an appointed client, our protagonist overhears the specifics of a drop for a drug deal. In an unlikely twist, Casi teams up with a pseudo-rival--a colleague with reproachable morals--to steal the money from the drug deal. To say the book is about this heist is like saying Ulysses is about Leopold's horniness or something. ANS is simply indescribable. The prose is purely revolutionary, hilarious, poetic, and infinitely cutting, all in the same breath. A paradoxically oblique yet accurate picture of the novel and its author can be gleaned from a piece by Garth Risk Hallberg (author of City on Fire, which was the bloated and underwhelming sophomore effort of a genius), about how he came to love this book as well: https://themillions.com/2012/06/outside-the-ring-a-profile-of-sergio-de-la-pava.html
  2. In the Distance, by Hernan Diaz: We're now 40% of the way through the list of my five favorite novels for 20% through the 21st century, and we haven't run into a single straight white male yet. I am become the radical left. How about this for an endorsement: In the Distance was a finalist for the Pulitzer. Enough said. But you should still keep reading, for the sake of seeding your barren cognitive landscape. Seriously, you people are fucking idiots. But for those of you who still peruse snail mail catalogs and participate in book clubs in which major points of discussion include whether a book boasts an 'exciting plot'--i.e. those of you who should seriously consider alternative methods of living your lives--don't worry: Carys Davies of The Guardian--an editorial ranging between worthless and adding negative value to society--as a "thrilling narrative, full of twists and turns." Thanks, Carys. Set in the time of Manifest Destiny (for you illiterate pieces of shit, that's when the pioneers went west, my sons), In the Distance follows Haukan, an incredibly large and hulking Swedish immigrant. Haukan loses--as in literarlly, he can no longer locate--his brother on the way to America. In spending the rest of his life in search of his lost brother, his legend waxes and wanes, he loves and loses, he fights and he makes peace--the whole gamut of contretemps and vicissitudes that go with any good epic. Only, with this one, the language is perfectly colloquial to the time period, while sacrificing none of its potential given the modern technology of English literature. Meanwhile, you ragged curs can't even find the bone hidden in your own yard. Seriously, you disgust me.
  3. The Flamethrowers, by Rachel Kushner: We're 60% of the way through listing my five favorite novels through 20% of the 21st century, and we haven't encountered a single straight white male. Look at the strides we've made. It's probably just me. This one you might have heard of, if you've ever red a bok 1nce. Represented by Jonathan Franzen's agent, Susan Golomb, it's no wonder Rachel slipped this one into the list of fat contracts handed out by Scribner that year. It certainly was deserving. A good friend of Sergio De La Pava's, Kushner is no stranger to baroque prose. Whether pulling us into the Italy of yore or the New York of 1976, Kusher's obsession with actualizing time and culture is impeccable. Speaking of Garth Hallberg (remember, the writer I mentioned twenty minutes ago--adjusting for the reading pace of you homunculi?), City on Fire was lionized for, if anything other than its bloated narrative, its verisimilitude of 1970s New York. However, I think Kushner did a far better job, and didn't limit herself as Garth did for the sake of a commercially viable project. Meanwhile, you all would sell your filthy prostates to the first horny codger handing out a fiver. From certain writers, I've heard of Rachel Kushner's faith to story and craft, likened to the old masters' obsession with art, which you don't find today among the tripe that's plastered with a generic vertical title and assortment of colors that passes for cover art (you can bet your bottom bitch that I do in fact judge by its cover). Prior to an earlier novel of hers that's set in Cuba, Kushner disappeared for for years, allegedly there, for research. This dedication shows in her work, contrary to what you see around this sub.
  4. Emerald City, by Brian Birnbaum: This is probably the most flawed book of the bunch, even more so than ANS. Still, Emerald City is an incredibly dynamic novel about a college basketball player whose father is defrauding the government through subsidies for deaf teleconferencing technology--with the catch being that his parents are deaf as well. The story pulls in two other 'protagonists'--a Romeo and Juliet sort of deal in that there are warring crime families behind the fraud scheme. The novel exhibits the best blend of plot and prose. There are more than 150 named characters and a ton of action, and yet every line is pyrotechnic, lyrical, hilarious, or all three. It also offers as much a blend of genre, from crime novel to campus drama to family saga. You got your Raymond Chandler, Chad Harbach, and Jonathan Franzen all in one novel. Not that any of you would know the first thing about any of them... Also a good friend of De La Pava (who blurbed Emerald City), Birnbaum's path to publication was somewhat similar. He actually did get signed at a big agency before his agent left the business. EC is the first novel of a small press that's putting out their second this September, so it's got a similar feel to A Naked Singularity in its upstartishness. It's also challenging, if not quite as much as ANS. This one might help you dimwits forge a few electrical connections before graduating to the big leagues.
  5. Stephen Florida, by Gabe Habash: Speaking of writers that blurbed Emerald City, Gabe Habash rounds out the list, safely keeping straight white males in the minority. Good job, me. To call this book unique is like saying it was unlikely that the Golden State Warriors would lose two of their top three stars to injury in the playoffs last year. The obvious stated, but you're still out of the loop. Allow me to fill you in. Whereas Emerald City boasted one antihero-cum-protagonist (it's latin, you fucking pigs), Stephen Florida's first person perspective comes from the antihero of all antiheroes--the eponymous Stephen Florida. Weirdly, that's actually not how his name is spelled, but Florida allowed a clerical error made by the school he wrestles at and attends to ride uncorrected. Florida's goal is simple: win the NCAA D-III wrestling title. As a senior, he's got a shot. The only problem is himself: he's batshit fucking crazy, the type who pisses into water fountains and gets into fights with people because it's a day that ends in 'y'. He makes for a novel that's as hilarious as it is intense. This one is perfect for you fucks. Maybe it's because he grew up with his grandmother after losing his parents as a child. Maybe it's because he's his own worst enemy. Maybe it's simply the fact that he cares as much as he does. Somehow, you find yourself rooting for the kid. But the purpose for reading this book hinges on far more than the outcome of his championship run--it hinges on what drives us to accomplish our goals, what makes the sort of people that are as driven as Florida is, and what happens when people like him are deprived of their ambition.
I expect all of you to read all of these novels within the year. If not, you'll continue to lose money. That's all I have to say. Wasting any more breath on this digital cesspool would only begin to incur on my spirit. Do yourselves a favor and fucking educate yourselves.
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Wrestling Observer Rewind ★ Apr. 1, 2002

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
PREVIOUSLY:
1-7-2002 1-14-2002 1-21-2002 1-28-2002
2-4-2002 2-11-2002 2-18-2002 2-25-2002
3-4-2002 3-11-2002 3-18-2002 3-25-2002
NOTE: Sorry about no post on Friday. Real life shit got in the way.
  • WWF finally took the plunge and went through with the long-rumored brand split this week, all while Steve Austin was sitting at home. Austin walked out after Wrestlemania and didn't appear on TV this week for the draft. He was expected to be the #1 pick fro Raw, so they changed the angle and explained that he couldn't be drafted due to a contract situation. Austin still has a year left on his WWF deal, so he can't go anywhere, but he isn't hurting for money so he can sit at home and be just fine. Austin's issues date back a couple of months and he was vocally unhappy about working with Scott Hall and the NWO in general. Morale in the company has sank since those guys came in, got main event spots, and started getting everything they wanted creatively and professionally. Some in the locker room see Austin's walkout as him protesting the state of the company, with an unhappy locker room that no longer has any leverage since all the other companies are dead, and Austin is the one guy with enough "fuck you" clout that he can stand up to Vince. Most of the wrestlers are said to be on his side, though the NWO guys and Triple H and co. obviously don't feel the same. But it goes back further than that. Austin was telling people 6 months ago that he would go home if the job stopped being fun.
  • Anyway, Dave breaks down the rosters of each show. Triple H and Jazz (men and women's champs) will float between both shows and work about half the house shows for each brand. Raw gets the IC, Euro, and Hardcore champions. Smackdown gets tag titles and cruiserweights. Several notable names were undrafted. Rhyno, Mike Awesome, Steve Blackman, and Chris Kanyon are all injured and weren't placed anywhere. Developmental names like Randy Orton and Ron Waterman are expected to be called up soon, among others. If Eddie Guerrero and Rey Mysterio are brought in, they'll likely be on SD with the cruiserweight division (Dave says Guerrero canceled his NJPW bookings for April which is a pretty solid sign that he'll be returning soon). Many of the lower-card wrestlers had no idea where they were going to end up and had to log on to wwf.com later that night to legitimately find out their futures. Tag teams like the Dudleyz and the APA were split up in the draft. Dave can't see the logic in splitting the Dudleyz and hopes it's the beginning of an angle that eventually reunites them. As for the APA, that's fine. Faarooq's career is winding down anyway and they've been talking about pushing Bradshaw as a single's star for over a year.
  • Raw is missing its top draw (Austin) and is pretty weak overall. Lumbering giants like Undertaker, Kevin Nash, and Big Show all ended up on Raw so don't expect a lot of great matches coming out of that brand. Plus they drafted Brock Lesnar to that brand, so his impressive size isn't going to stand out as much among those guys. With the cruiserweight division, plus guys like Jericho, Benoit, and Angle, you can bet Smackdown is going to have the better matches. Plus they have The Rock and Hogan for star power. But much like Raw, Smackdown might be in danger of not having its top draw either. Rock is expected to be gone for much of the summer to film another movie and he's continuing to get more and more movie offers, which means more time away from wrestling. And Hogan can't be a long-term weekly top draw anymore, no matter how much nostalgia popularity he has right now. Which means it's vital that they finally commit to pushing Angle, Jericho, and Benoit as real top stars.
WATCH: Linda McMahon introduces the first WWF Draft
  • Dave reviews the latest UFC show, with Josh Barnett winning the heavyweight title from Randy Couture in an upset. Long detailed recap full of the usual news and stuff, but it's MMA sooooo...
  • And the next story is about Cael Sanderson of Iowa State becoming, record-wise, the single greatest collegiate wrestler in U.S. history by winning his 4th NCAA championship and ending his college record at 159-0. So MMA and college wrestling. On to the next...
  • AJPW notes: after long negotiations, AJPW failed to secure a new TV deal. The normal TV season in Japan is starting next week and they were hoping to have a deal signed by now, but no luck. Also, they're interested in bringing in Super Crazy for their junior heavyweight division but it'll likely depend on whether he gets an offer from WWF instead (neither happens right now. He spends the next 2 years bouncing around NJPW, CMLL, and Zero-1 before he finally ends up in WWE in 2005).
  • Already halfway through the issue and past the major stories. This seems like a slow issue wrestling-wise, but the UFC and Cael Sanderson stories were both big chunks so....sorry this one kinda blows.
  • NOAH junior champion Naomichi Marufuji dislocated his knee when landing wrong on a moonsault and had to be stretchered out at a recent show. No word on how long he'll be out of action for (must have been a pretty bad injury. Looks like he comes back 2 weeks later, wrestles a match to drop the title, and then is out of action for the next 10 months).
  • Hiroyoshi Tenzan and Masahiro Chono won the vacant tag team titles at the latest NJPW show, beating Nagata and Manabu Nakanishi in a tournament final match. The titles were, of course, vacated when Keiji Muto jumped ship to AJPW, leaving his partner Taiyo Kea and the belts behind. Nagata ate the pin here. And in fact, Nagata also recently did several submission jobs to Tadao Yasuda at some shows and Dave jokes that Nagata is getting the Chris Jericho push. You know, beat him to death for months on end until the fans see him as a midcarder, then put the title on him with almost no build-up, and then wonder why he's not over and blame him when business is down (indeed, Nagata wins the IWGP title just a week or two after this and even though he holds it for 13 months, business goes in the toilet. And it's through no fault of Nagata's).
  • Antonio Inoki announced that he is bringing in Chyna to the NJPW 30th anniversary show at the Tokyo Dome in May. Remember a week or so ago when Inoki talked about how successful WWF's recent show in Japan was and admitted that maybe he has some stuff to learn from it? This is it. Inoki realized the huge popularity WWF has in Japan right now and reached out to one of their biggest stars of the last few years to bring in as a celebrity guest. The idea they teased in the press is that she would come in and work a match and probably defeat one of NJPW's lower card guys, which Dave thinks would be a horrible idea (yeah, that would suck. Better idea: how about she goes over Yuji Nagata and Jushin Liger in her first match, how's that sound Dave? Because that's exactly what we get. Fuckin' Inoki, man...)
  • NJPW's latest show in Tokyo did a disappointing attendance number and Dave says that's what happens when you make Tadao Yasuda your world champion. No matter how much publicity he got off his upset MMA victory a few months ago, and no matter how nice his underdog comeback story is, he flat out sucks as a pro wrestler and the crowd sees it and don't buy him as champion. Even worse, they had him go over Tenzan by submission. With NJPW's depleted roster, Tenzan is one of the only cool, not-washed-up wrestlers they have left. Anyway, this sets up a Yasuda match with Nagata at the next show in Tokyo and if NJPW has any smarts at all, they'll get that belt off him and onto Nagata ASAP (they do, thankfully).
  • Bobby Heenan is currently recovering from surgery to remove his lymph nodes. following his recent cancer diagnosis and is said to be in good spirits.
  • Various notes: Goldberg filmed an episode of the HBO show Arli$$ recently. Ken Patera did an interview and said the strongest men in wrestling from his era were Andre The Giant, Bruno Sammartino, Ivan Putski, Billy Graham, and Tony Atlas, in that order, and praised Bruno for being extra impressive because he never used steroids. Shane Douglas' Time Warner contract is expiring in a few weeks and it's rumored he'll be working with XPW as a wrestlebooker.
  • Jerry Jarrett's new promotion is expected to start in June and there continue to be rumors that Vince Russo will be ghost-writing the show. Dave says the differences between a Russo show and a Jarrett show should be pretty glaringly obvious within the first few minutes of the first show, so we'll just have to wait and see (I don't know if he was involved in the very first shows or not, but he joins the company within the first month).
  • Remember the WCW KISS Demon? Well his real name is Dale Torborg and he now works as a coach for the Florida Marlins baseball team (his father Jeff is the manager of the team). Anyway, Torborg recently got into a confrontation with relief pitcher Antonio Alfonseca that is rumored to have gotten physical and resulted in Alfonseca locking himself in a trainer's office to get away. Everyone on the team is being hush-hush about the incident. Alfonseca apparently has a bit of a reputation of being hard to deal with, but since the incident, he's allegedly been on his best behavior because apparently the KISS Demon put the fear of god in him (here's a news article from it at the time. Alfonseca ends up being traded to a new team a few days later, although the Marlins denied this incident had anything to do with it).
READ: 2002 ESPN article about Torborg incident
  • Ring of Honor has announced some new rules for its promotion. For starters, they're bringing back tag ropes (yeah, during this era, that was a small thing that sorta just got ignored by everyone for years). They're also not doing any count-outs. ROH booker Gabe Sapolsky said that outside-the-ring counts always go really slow and referees have to stall or find excuses to break the count and no one likes count-out finishes anyway, so why even have them? So now, you can fight on the floor all you want. Dave says AJPW pretty much did the same thing in the 90s. ROH also wants to have very little outside interference or ref bumps and clean finishes.
  • Apparently, Jake Roberts is being investigated in England by the RSPCA for animal cruelty. After a recent show there, someone complained that he was being cruel to his snake at the show. The next night, the RSPCA sent an agent to another show Jake was working to watch and they weren't happy with what they saw either, so they've opened an investigation (yeah, as a kid, this was of course the coolest thing ever. But as an adult, I hate watching the way animals have been used in wrestling over the years. Jake used to just throw that snake around like it was nothing, fling it across the ring, people would fall on it, land on it, step on it, whatever. Remember the scene where Jake locked Ultimate Warrior in a room full of snakes? Go back and watch it now, Warrior is just kicking the shit out of these poor little snakes. Or another example, I remember watching a British Bulldogs match a few months ago and they had Matilda the bulldog jump off the ring apron to the mat below. That's a 3-4 foot jump. As someone who has owned bulldogs, that is terrible for their spines. As a kid, all this stuff was whatever. But as an animal-loving adult, watching all that old footage now makes me real uncomfortable).
  • An indie promotion in Pittsburg called IWC had a tournament called the Super Indy Tournament featuring Chris Hero, Christopher Daniels, Low-Ki, Colt Cabana, and some kid named CM Punk.
  • Early estimates for the WWA PPV in Las Vegas are around 31,000 PPV buys. Keep in mind, early estimates are always about 10-25% higher than what the final number ends up being. WWA needed 35,000 just to break-even on this show so even with the inflated number, they didn't do it. So the show is undoubtedly a money-loser, but no idea just how badly yet (spoiler: pretty badly).
  • Notes from Raw: it was the WWF Draft show! Dave calls it "the latest Russo-like reset of the promotion." Rock was drafted #1 for Smackdown while Undertaker was drafted #1 for Raw. It was announced that Austin wasn't eligible for being drafted and will be a free agent, so they'll figure that out later. Dave says, if you follow the storylines, it makes no sense why Ric Flair would pick Undertaker as his #1 pick (this being the guy he just had a bloodbath with at Wrestlemania and they didn't even bother to explain why Flair picked him). With his next pick, Flair selected the NWO. Once again, just a few weeks ago, Flair was ready to sign over his share of the company and leave the WWF entirely to keep Vince from bringing in the NWO. And now, with no explanation, he's drafted them to Raw. Billy & Chuck and the NWO got drafted together as a team, but the Dudleyz got split apart. Why?! None of this makes sense and Dave is so frustrated with how little thought they put into this after having a year to plan it. (Rewinderman short rant: everybody talks about all the reasons WWE has declined in popularity over the last 20 years and there's always different theories. Bad booking, not creating new stars, not pushing the right people, etc. etc. But I have my own theory that I never hear anyone say: I think it's the lack of attention to detail. Ever since WCW went out of business, Vince has been painting in broad, dumbed down brush strokes, over-explaining dumb, simple storylines, with none of the attention to detail that makes people get invested in a story. Anyway, enough of my opinions). Brock Lesnar came out and beat up a bunch of people again, which he's been doing on every show since his debut. In this case, he threw Rikishi around like a rag doll and Dave says that's one strong fella. They did an angle where Stephanie lost a match and was forced to "leave the WWF" and she was dragged out by security while the crowd sang the goodbye song to her. But Dave says they did this exact same thing with Stephanie in November and that lasted all of 5 weeks before she was back so don't get too excited (sure enough, she'll be back 3 months after this).
  • Notes from Smackdown: Rico Constantino debuted as the stylist for Billy & Chuck and Dave says that's a dead-end gimmick if there ever was one. He also got a haircut and looks like a totally different person from his OVW days. Rico is a fantastic wrestler and everyone from OVW to front office guys like Jim Ross have gone to bat for him and said he's ready to be a star. But he's small and he's on the older side, so this is clearly where Vince sees him (yeah, even Bruce Prichard later said that pretty much everyone in the company saw star-potential in Rico.....except Vince). Edge vs. Booker T had a rematch that was much better than their Wrestlemania match. And X-Pac debuted (with "a new physique", wink wink) and joined the NWO and they beat down Hogan and got major heat because Hogan is so over right now.
  • Kevin Nash and Scott Hall showed up several hours late to the Smackdown tapings in Ottawa and the first thing Nash did upon arrival was complain loudly to anyone who would listen about Rock calling him "Big Daddy Bitch" the night before on Raw, saying Rock double-crossed him and Nash hadn't approved that line. Considering all the times Nash went against the script in WCW, needless to say, there were lots of rolled eyes at that. Especially after showing up late also. To make it up to him, during the tag match on Smackdown, they had a spot where Nash yelled "Who's the bitch now?" at him and Michael Cole made sure to bring attention to it on commentary so nobody missed it, so now they're even and now everything is okay I guess. Dave says Nash and Rock smoothed things over between them later because Nash is smart enough to know that making an enemy of The Rock isn't in his best interest. But he was extremely pissed about the line.
  • Variety reported the new movie Rock is going to be filming later this year will be called Helldorado. It's an action-adventure movie and Rock plays a bounty hunter who heads to the Amazon jungle to capture someone and ends up joining the guy to trying to retrieve something from a local mine (close enough. The movie ends up being renamed The Rundown).
  • Paul Heyman has dropped significant weight since he was last on TV back in November. Even if they're not a wrestler, Vince wants everyone on television to be "cosmetically presentable."
  • Assorted WWF notes: Lita is filming an episode of the FOX show "Dark Angel" soon (spoiler: this turns out very poorly for Lita). Steve Blackman is still out with a neck injury and now he gets crippling migraine headaches when he tries to work out or take bumps and Dave says it's possibly career-threatening (indeed, it forces him to retire). Chris Jericho's band Fozzy will be performing at WWF New York next week. The Rock is about to be featured on every TV show and on the cover of every magazine in existence over the next few weeks as part of the Scorpion King promotion.
  • Dave talks about the current second season of Tough Enough and how interest is way down from the first season. He also kinda gives it a brief review and just says it's boring and nothing really entertaining happens. In the first season, Tazz was the hard ass tough guy trainer to Al Snow's nice guy routine. When Tazz did it, it felt like he was doing it to teach the students respect and was trying to do it in a positive way. This season, Bob Holly is the "bad cop" and he comes across like a complete asshole who is bullying people without any intention of doing it in a way that makes them work harder or become better wrestlers (yeah, you think it's bad now, just wait until season 3 when he starts beating the shit out of Matt Cappotelli).
  • WWF is going to be working with the Ozzfest concert tour this summer. WWF wrestlers will sign autographs and introduce bands at many of the tour stops and several of the bands will perform on Raw later this year. "That's what happens when there's no Nitro," Dave deadpans.
  • Regarding the multiple hardcore title changes at Wrestlemania 18, there was discussions about having some of them happen at the CN Tower in Toronto. With the idea that they would brawl into the elevator and end up fighting out onto the outdoor observation deck (like, 100 floors up). But a few weeks before the show, for whatever reason, WWF changed their mind and decided not to pursue it.
  • Bret Hart recently agreed to work Jacques Rougeau's next indie event at the Molson Center. If you recall, just a few months ago, Rougeau drew a crowd of more than 10,000 to one of his indie shows there. When Vince McMahon found out Hart was going to work the show, he tried to pull a power move and get the Molson Center to give him an exclusivity deal, which would block Rougeau (and anyone else) from being able to run the building. Didn't work and Rougeau's show will go forward as planned as of now (Vince used to do that shit all the time in the 80s to Jim Crockett).
  • Rey Mysterio hasn't signed with WWF yet but it's considered just a formality. They gave him a low-ball contract offer, far less than he would make just working indies. Of course, it's just his downside guarantee. When you factor in gate money, merch money, video game money, etc. then he stands to make far more than he would on the indies. But if he gets hurt, he'll be sitting at home making very little money. On the other hand, if he gets hurt on the indies, he'll be making no money so better than nothing. Anyway, sounds like Rey shot down the first low-ball offer but they're expected to agree on a deal soon.
  • Dave has seen more of the TSN Off The Record interviews they did with several WWF stars last week. Ric Flair talked about how much of a disaster WCW was and put over Vince. Dave says that this isn't just Flair publicly kissing the boss's ass. Privately for years, Flair has only said good things about Vince McMahon, dating back to his first run in the early 90s. Even all the years he was in WCW, Flair only had good things to say about him. During the interview, Flair was asked to name someone who could have been an all-time great but didn't have the work ethic. Flair said he couldn't think of anyone off the top of his head, leading Dave to write, "I was screaming Barry Windham but nobody heard me." Jim Ross was next and blamed the environment in WCW for the backstage problems Hall and Nash caused. Dave points out that Hall and Nash caused all those same problems in WWF before they left in 1996 so that doesn't exactly check out. Undertaker's interview was interesting for the rare experience of seeing him out of character, just being Mark Calaway. When asked about something he hates about how the business has changed, Undertaker talked about the internet spoiling things and how it hurts the product when fans know about things in advance. Dave, of course, disputes this and gives an example using the show Friends. Before this season of the show started, TV Guide reported that Ross was going to wind up being the father of Rachel's baby and it was common knowledge. But the ratings were still through the roof for the "reveal." He also jokes that they could have swerved everybody and made it Gunther instead. Then he says if Russo was writing the show, he would have made himself a character called The Scriptwriter and made himself the father of Rachel's baby. (I've never watched Friends, these references are lost on me)
  • Latest on WWF pay cuts: aside from the very top guys, the company is trying to get most of the roster down to $125,000-or-less per year downside guarantees. Those who work full schedules will still make a lot more than that with PPV/ticket/merch percentages, plus they're doing more house shows this year and with the split rosters, more guys should be working more dates. Plus they raised the price of PPVs so the PPV pay-offs will be bigger. So these pay cuts won't really hurt the full-time stars. But of course, if you get hurt and you're sitting at home only collecting your downside, that's gonna be a lot less money now. So that sucks. On the flip side, WCW used to do the opposite, where guys were hurt and they still collected their full salary, which led to a lot of guys milking "injuries" so they could stay home and cash big ol' checks. So then WCW decided to start cutting people's pay in half when they were out for too long, and that led to people who were legitimately injured coming back too soon because they had bills to pay. So there's a delicate balance that you have to strike there. Also, as part of the new contracts they're trying to get everyone to sign, they're attempting to lock everyone into 3-to-5 year deals because Vince wants to make sure nobody can jump ship and help one of these new start-up promotions like XWF or WWA or the new Jarrett company get off the ground.
  • Ric Flair is still working on his autobiography that Mark Madden was helping to ghost-write for him. WWF is now attempting to buy the rights for that book away from the original publisher so they can publish it on their own. No word if Mark Madden will still be included or if they'll re-do it (WWF did eventually get it and released it. It has another author listed but still says "edited by" Mark Madden so who knows how much of his contributions made it into the final product).
  • After Naoya Ogawa took pictures with several WWF names at Wrestlemania, he went back to Japan and I guess got the media stirred up about possibly working with them. Some media outlets have talked about WWF running a Tokyo Dome event headlined by Ogawa vs. The Rock. Dave says this is pure bullshit.
WEDNESDAY: AJPW Triple Crown champion Toshiaki Kawada injured, more on WWF pay cuts, business analysis, the history of wrestling/shoot fighting, more on Steve Austin walking out, and more...
submitted by daprice82 to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

Evaluating Line Movement in College Basketball

I recently did some in-depth research in the value of line movements in college basketball. My first project evaluated every game I bet on in the 2019-2020 season. My findings were actually very surprising, and I wanted to share them to get my mind off of not watching sports. One quick note before getting into the data. For the purposes of this breakdown I made the assumption that line movements are strictly due to the "public" betting one side more heavily than another. This is obviously not always the case, but makes explaining the data much simpler. First, lines only moved in favor of favorites 2.5% more often than underdogs. I had always assumed that "the public loves favorites" was a narrative that would show much more evidence of truth. Next, I learned that lines have to move 1.5 points or more in order to be a strong (profitable) indicator of which team will cover the spread. This applies to movement towards favorites and underdogs, alike. One difference though, is that a greater magnitude of line movement towards favorites does not become an even stronger indicator, while for underdogs, it does. My sample size of games was only about 2,000 games, and didn't always capture lines from open to close. I wanted to see if these trends held up with significantly better data in quantity and quality. So I repeated the analysis on every game from 2011-2020 (that had complete line movement data). This giant sample size showed that the public does, indeed, love favorites. Lines moved towards favorites 45.9% of the time (compared to 34.9% for underdogs). They also prefer visitors more than home teams, which I found surprising. Lines moved towards away teams 3.5% more often than home teams. It also became clear that line movement is, in absolutely no way, an indicator of which team will cover the spread. In fact, strictly "fading" the public at tip-off would save you over 1,000 units compared to "tailing" them (steam-chasing), despite the fact that you're getting the "worst of it".
I have graphical representations of all of my data and further explanations on my webiste: Initial sample: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-spreads/ Follow-up sample: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-spreads/
Feel free to message me if you have any thoughts or questions, and stay safe!
submitted by NSIPicks to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Vegas investigates how La. Tech announced suspensions

Louisiana Tech is probably the only school in America who would suspend their starting QB and leading receiver after an 8-1 start, now Vegas will investigate.
https://j.4rd.co/2DbDkqE
submitted by jfordlatech to CFB [link] [comments]

The NCAA basketball season would've ended yesterday. I made a spreadsheet tracking one of /r/sportsbook's most controversial pickers, Chasing Payments

Forgive me mods if this isn't allowed here but I looked at the rules and it seems to be ok. Anyone who followed NCAA basketball on this sub during the past couple of seasons knows about ChasingPayments, a polarizing character who earned an intense reputation for high-stakes bets, dramatic writing pose, questionable bankroll management, and a rollercoaster of a track record. Like CP or hate CP, their activity was one of the more memorable experiences in this subreddit during the season.
In an attempt to chronicle the wild activity of Chasing Payments for NCAA basketball 2019-20, I took advantage of this newly-found free time and created a google spreadsheet which you can find here. In it I listed every bet that CP publicly made (as far as I can tell, they deleted a bunch of tweets) and logged their net total as it changed from day to day. The rollercoaster is really quite interesting to follow.
CP might not have accrued such a captivated audience (including hundreds of comments spamming Mandalorian memes) without some early season success to pique users' interest. CP turned $200 into over $2,000 with a 13-7 record in the first week and a half of picks back in November. CP then traded some wins with some losses and entering December had boosted their net total to $3,485 with a respectable 28-21-1 record.
CP's reddit presence this season would be short-lived. After a clash with the subreddit rules disallowing individuals from creating their own pick threads, CP decided to depart reddit permanently in early December, heading to Twitter instead. CP's twitter popularity skyrocketed, earning nearly 20k followers at the peak, and a string of successful Martingales ballooned CP's earnings to an eye-popping $10,165 near the end of December.
And then... everything changed. Starting on December 31st, CP rattled off eight straight losses over three days, losing approximately $13,000 in total to kick off the new year in the red. CP dabbled a few $0 bets (ie. what they would've bet while they were waiting for credit to renew) to middling success, before loading a crisp $10,000 onto their account and... placing it all on TX-Arlington -270, hoping to win $3,704. What could go wrong?
South Alabama, 6-point underdogs, stunned Arlington in Arlington, winning by 12 and pouring salt on CP's still-fresh wound. Critics characterized poor bankroll management strategy as CP went dark on the internet for a few days. CP's hiatus didn't last long, though. CP returned with two successful $0 bets on January 11th, then a 1-2 day on January 13th where CP managed to eke out some profit despite the two losses. CP carried this momentum with a terrific 6-1 week, cutting their losses from around –$12,135 to around –$5,726.
Sidebar: CP had a butt-clencher on Dayton -340 in the middle of this excellent stretch. Dayton were nearly 7-point favorites heading to Saint Louis and ranked #13 in the country. After heading into half with a sluggish 8-point deficit, Dayton rallied to take a 2-point lead with mere seconds remaining in regulation, before Saint Louis hit a clutch layup to send the game to overtime. From there, Dayton teetered on the brink of destruction, trailing by one with mere seconds to play, hitting a last second 3-pointer to win outright. What could've been a momentum-killer turned out to be one of the highlights of the CP rollercoaster. Of course the ride didn't stop there as the following night CP picked Baylor -6... and they won by 7 on the road at OK State.
Things seemed to be turning the corner for CP. But much of CP's success had been propagated on martingales, a high-risk high-reward betting strategy where bettors simply needed to get one pick right out of all their bets for the day in order to cash in. Even the best pickers have a bad day... and CP had theirs on January 20th, going 0-4 to lose a combined $10,000, crushing their momentum and dropping them over $15k in the red. CP attempted to dig themselves out of their hole by betting another $10,000 the very next day, this time all on Butler +3.5 against Villanova, and, you guessed it, Nova blew out Butler 76-61, careening CP to a staggering net total of around –$25,726. It can't get much worse than that, right? Right?
CP went back to the $0 bets for a few days, drawing a pedestrian 9-9-1 record. Despite the crushing losses, CP was still reveled on Twitter, and returned to early season form on January 28th, risking around $6,000 on the day but this time across seven different bets, a strategy that did CP well early on in the season. CP earned a solid $250 on the day or so, chipping away at their monstrous ~$25k loss total.
This would be the last time CP ended a day with a positive sum.
CP went a combined 4-15-1 over the next five weeks, and the tale of how it occurred was quite endearing. First CP saw a disastrous end to an already rough January, tanking almost $9k on thirteen standalone bets, ending the month with a net total of around –$34,417 on the season. A stunning fall after being up over $10k one month earlier.
After a few days of no bets, CP returned in force on February 5th and 6th, risking $10,000 on the former and around $6,000 on the latter, with two bets on each day. CP both dodged disaster and avoided success, splitting each day 1-1, resulting in a meager total of around –$728. CP ratcheted the tempo up further a few days later, dropping $10,000 on Rhode Island +11 against Dayton. I'm sure you know how this story goes by now. To CP's credit this game was closer than some of their past high-stake losses, as Dayton beat Rhode Island by 14, but it was yet another $10k catastrophe.
CP's once resilient audience turned from "This is the Way" to "This is most definitely not the Way" as CP lost yet another $10,000 on a three-team ML parlay of NC-Greensboro -450, SMU -320, and Duke -290. NC-Greensboro rallied from down six to survive Wofford 83-79 in overtime, but SMU and Duke weren't be so lucky, as Tulane shocked SMU 80-72 and NC State obliterated Duke 88-66.
CP's longest betting hiatus came in the days following the devastating ML parlay. CP acknowledged their late season struggles with a humorous hypothetical pick, which in a cruel twist of irony, would've hit had it been bet. CP ended the season with one final hail mary, dropping yet another $10k bomb on Michigan +4.5 against Maryland, boldly predicting them to not only cover but outright win. It was an excruciating loss to watch unfold in real-time as Michigan started the first half down 41-28, finishing the game with the same 13-point deficit, 83-70. The NCAA season formally ended a few days later as the coronavirus pandemic sweeped the nation, cancelling all conference tournaments and axing the NCAA tournament.
At the end of it all, CP's net total was about –$65,145 with an end-of-season record of 88-91-4. I say "about" because unfortunately CP deleted a significant number of tweets at some point prior to my record-tracking, and did not post any statistics of their own that I could compare to after December 30th. I was able to salvage most tweets thanks to the Wayback Machine (strongly recommend throwing them a bone if you enjoyed this project, wouldn't have been possible without their system), but it is possible this number is a little different from the real number. That said, if it is off, I can't imagine it's off by more than a few thousand dollars give or take.
You can find the full spreadsheet here. If you have any questions, or spot any errors, please let me know! Also, if you'd like to share your own experiences and stories of CP, I think that would be fun to read while most of us are cooped up waiting for the virus crisis to pass.
submitted by Jomskylark to sportsbook [link] [comments]

More College Basketball Line Movement Data

My previous post regarding line movement in NCAA Men's Basketball spreads received a lot of great feedback and started some really great conversation. As I continue looking into this type of data I will share all of my results here in order to keep those conversations going or, at the very least, continue providing some interesting information for everyone to explore while we don't have any sports to bet on. The most recent numbers I've studied are college basketball totals. The overall takeaways this time are very similar to those previous:
  1. Movements on a total correctly predict the winning side less than half the time.
  2. No profitable betting strategy can be formulated by using line movements alone.
However, there were some interesting differences between sides and totals that are noteworthy:
  1. In reference to the adage, "The public loves favorites and overs"; Overs are not quite as popular with the "public" as favorites. Totals moved up (in favor of the over) 8.7% more often than down (in favor of the under). Recall that favorites saw an almost 11% bias compared to underdogs.
  2. The totals market is slightly more efficient than the spread market. Total line movements had an overall accuracy of 49.84%, compared to 48.99% for spreads. I explained that fading the market's spread movements would save a bettor over 1,000 units vs tailing. This same strategy for totals would save only 172 units.
  3. I found the first indication of market efficiency in one specific sub-set of data. When a total is bet down (in favor of the under), it correctly predicts an under 50.3% of the time. While still not successful enough to overcome -110 odds, it was pretty cool to uncover that the under is a "sharp" play more often than not.
I presented a theory at the end of this article that smaller markets are more likely to be comprised of a higher percentage of sharp players. College basketball is only ever king of the American betting markets during March and early April. Throughout the entire rest of the season it pales in comparison to the NFL and NBA. I made the assumption that recreational, so-called "five dollar" bettors are much more likely to make their "entertainment only" bets in one of those bigger markets. While it certainly can't be said that every die-hard fan or bettor with a model is a sharp player, I think it's an interesting perspective to have before analyzing those bigger markets.
In the meantime, as always, feel free to message me with any thoughts or questions, and stay safe!
Full article with graphical representations can be found here: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-totals/
submitted by NSIPicks to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Here's your 2019-20 Bowl Games Google Calendar. Team info, kickoff times, TV info, betting line, team statistics, etc.

 
Back again is this year's Google calendar for all of the FBS bowl games (and one FCS game!). Includes everything you need for a quick overview of the game, including game info, TV network, broadcasting crew, betting lines, team rankings, and statistics. Here's an example of an entry:
 
 
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 21, 2019, 2:00pm - 5:30pm
Dreamstyle Stadium, 1414 University Blvd SE, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA
 
Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5, 6-2 MAC) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 5-3 MWC)
 
TV: ESPN / Clay Matvick, Ryan Leaf, Jerry Punch
2017 Payout: $1,050,000 (27 of 39)
 
Opening Line: San Diego State -4
 
Watchability Ranking: 28 of 39
Competitiveness Ranking: T27 of 39
 
Central Michigan Chippewas (SP+: 86, FPI: 90)
SP+ Offense Rank: 79
Total Offense (PTS/G): 31.4 (36)
Passing Offense (YDS/G): 256.8 (43)
Rushing Offense (YDS/G): 183.8 (39)
 
SP+ Defense Rank: 73
Total Defense (PTS/G): 27.2 (57)
Passing Defense (YDS/G): 238.2 (80)
Rushing Defense (YDS/G): 122.7 (23)
 
San Diego State Aztecs (SP+: 61, FPI: 71)
SP+ Offense Rank: 127
Total Offense (PTS/G): 20.2 (112)
Passing Offense (YDS/G): 202.6 (91)
Rushing Offense (YDS/G): 135.8 (96)
 
SP+ Defense Rank: 17
Total Defense (PTS/G): 14.0 (5)
Passing Defense (YDS/G): 225.1 (62)
Rushing Defense (YDS/G): 75.8 (2)
 
 
The "Watchability Ranking" is an aggregation of the rankings from these sources:
 
 
The "Competitiveness Ranking" is sorted by the average of the difference between the teams’ SP+ and FPI rankings. The higher the ranking, the closer the teams are in ability (at least in theory).
 
This information should be everything you need to know who's playing/when/how to watch, roughly how good/even the two teams are, where they excel (offense/defense, passing/rushing, etc.), and how fun the game should be to watch.
 
Here are some directions from two years ago on how to add.
 
I know that last year the iCal version wasn't formatting correctly. Unfortunately, in-browser Google Calendar doesn't give many formatting options so there isn't much I can do.
 
Send any errors my way and I'll correct them, and happy bowling!
submitted by chekhovian12 to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 8 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from yesterday.

Team Graphs by Conference:

Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

NEW: Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Season progression of SP+ predicted win totals (through 2019 regular season)

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from Sunday.

Weekly progression of SP+'s projected final records for each team

These tables show what SP+ projected the team's final record to be after each week. So the first row shows what the preseason SP+ ratings projected the team's final win distribution to look like. The second row shows what the SP+ ratings after week one projected their final win distribution to look like, and so on. You can see how the predictions for each team changed as the season went on:
Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' SP+ ratings at the time of the projection, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 12 2019 - now with a new set of bonus charts!

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from Sunday.

NEW this week: weekly progression of SP+'s projected final records for each team!

These tables show what SP+ projected the team's final record to be after each week. So the first row shows what the preseason SP+ ratings projected the team's final win distribution to look like. The second row shows what the week-two SP+ ratings projected their final win distribution to look like.
Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt
I will update these each of the next couple weeks as the regular season wraps up.

Future game projections:

Not many games left, so these charts are pretty ho-hum nowadays:
Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the "Future Game Projection" tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 11 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from yesterday.

Team Graphs by Conference:

Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 9 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from yesterday.

Team Graphs by Conference:

Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

The news to start your day 3/11

Good Morning –
Today’s date is 3/11. Here is what you need to know today.
CORONAVIRUS
Public school systems and universities around the D.C. region are sharing their plans as concerns about the new coronavirus grip the U.S. and the world.
· Loyola University Maryland will be online until April 1
· American University and George Washington University both have put classes online until at least April 5
· University of Maryland and George Mason classes will be online until April 10
· Fairfax County Public Schools are taking off March 16, which will be designated as a staff development day for the school system to prepare for moving classes online
The Maryland congressional delegation spent yesterday talking about the next steps. “The good news is that we have capacity now in our private labs, in our hospitals,” Senator Ben Cardin said. “However, that is gearing up.”
WTOP is keeping a running list of all the cases in the D.C. area — You can get updated statistics here.
THE LOCAL PERSPECTIVE
While coronavirus grips the nation, a sentence came down for the D.C. bus driver that killed the mayor of a small Alaska town and her mother. Gerard James was sentenced to 6 months in prison after the sentence was suspended for three and a half years.
A man who is in prison for life, Lee Boyd Malvo, is now a married man. Malvo was a part of the 2002 sniper spree that terrorized the nation’s capital region. The 35-year-old had been looking to appeal his life in prison sentence up until last month, when the change in law made his appeal a failed effort, no matter the outcome.
In Annapolis, the Maryland senate voted 47-0 for sports betting in six casinos, horse racing tracks potentially at a Washington Redskins stadium. The bill now moves to the House.
A GOOD NIGHT FOR JOE BIDEN
Joe Biden decisively won Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary, seizing a key battleground state that helped propel Bernie Sanders’ insurgent candidacy four years ago. The former vice president’s victory there, as well as in Missouri, Mississippi and Idaho, dealt a serious blow to Sanders and substantially widened Biden’s path to the nomination.
The six-state contest Tuesday marked the first time voters weighed in on the primary since it effectively narrowed to a two-person race between Sanders and Biden. And the first four states on Tuesday went to Biden, a dramatic reversal for a campaign that appeared on the brink of collapse just two weeks ago. Now it is Sanders, whose candidacy was ascendant so recently, who must contemplate a path forward.
“We need you, we want you, and there’s a place in our campaign for each of you. I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion,” Biden said. “We share a common goal, and together we’ll beat Donald Trump.”
BEAL DROPS 39
Last night, the Wizards beat the New York Knicks 122-115. Bradley Beal dropped 39 points and 7 assists, while Shabazz Napier added 21 points in 38 minutes. The Wizards move to 24-40 and play the Celtics in Boston on Friday. The Capitals are off until tomorrow when they take on the Detroit Red Wings. Howard University pulled an upset by beating S.C. State 70-63, while Vermont beat UMBC 81-74 to advance to the AEC title game.
BUSINESS NEWS
U.S. STOCK FUTURES:
DOW: -538.00 / -2.17%
NASDAQ: -180.50 / -2.17%
S&P: -67.00 /-2.34%
THE WORLD VIEW
Russia passed a bill allowing President Vladimir Putin to stay in power past 2024. The death toll in Iran from the coronavirus climbed to 354, with a total of over 9,000 cases in the country. The epicenter of the virus, Wuhan, may soon be getting back to business after President Xi visited the city Tuesday and signaled the crisis may be winding down in China.
That’s the news to start your day. We’ll see you tomorrow.
submitted by wtopnews to DCMdVaNews [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 13 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from Sunday.

NEW: weekly progression of SP+'s projected final records for each team!

These tables show what SP+ projected the team's final record to be after each week. So the first row shows what the preseason SP+ ratings projected the team's final win distribution to look like. The second row shows what the SP+ ratings after week one projected their final win distribution to look like, and so on.
Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt
I will update these each of the next couple weeks as the regular season wraps up.

Future game projections:

Not many games left, so these charts are pretty ho-hum nowadays:
Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the "Future Game Projection" tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 7 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from yesterday.

Team Graphs by Conference:

Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

NEW: Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

Win Total Probability Distributions per SP+, Through Week 10 2019

Note: Full credit for SP+ ratings goes to BillConnelly of ESPN. Full credit for this visualization concept goes to rcfbuser, who produced similar charts last season but won't be producing them this time. Last season he graciously gave detailed explanations for how these were calculated, and I've copied the math he used to create this version.
If you want to discuss the ratings themselves, then please see the post from yesterday.

Team Graphs by Conference:

Conference
ACC
American
Big 12
Big Ten
C-USA
Independents
MAC
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
Sun Belt

Mess around with your own table!

Here is a Google sheet that will calculate win distributions for a given schedule of SP+ ratings and home/away sites. Since this sheet is public, your best bet is to make a copy for yourself and play around with it as much as you like without other people messing with it.

How do you read the tables?

I am open to suggestions on how to make these clearer!

How are these calculated?

Some caveats:

This is an exercise based around SP+ as the underlying probability, but I'm not claiming that this is a perfect measure. SP+ has flaws just like any other predictive measure in sports--for example, it doesn't account for players returning from past injuries and it doesn't account for players missing future games with injuries. This is meant to be a mathematical exercise to estimate these win distributions, and should be taken as a starting point, not the end-all-be-all.
Additionally, these are based solely on the teams' current SP+ ratings, and assumes all games are independent events. There's a lot of additional meta uncertainty about how teams' future SP+ ratings will change that isn't included here.
Finally, the inputs to this are coming from several different sources to automate the process, and it's possible that some errors may have slipped in. Please let me know if any teams' tables look like something is wrong!
submitted by ExternalTangents to CFB [link] [comments]

FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info

FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
FEB 25 - Free Predictions and NBA Trends and Betting Info
Patreon.com/MACSPICKS
The MAC'S consensus groups span the nation, today our NCAAB Red Alert CBB Picks make up our card. The RedAlertWagers.com National Consensus groups have been tapping sources, vetting information, and we are getting ready for March Madness.

(FEB 25) MAC GOES 4-0 LAST NIGHT! - TONIGHT'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7!

Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure Tonight!

Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise!
TONIGHT OUR NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY (FEB 25) - Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 goes off at 7:00 EST - Xavier already has 10 losses - this may be a problem for the Musketeers as they attempt to catch the attention of the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Tonight's Big East action will be a important game for Xavier, but Depaul has been waiting to get vengeance after a 59-67 loss to Xavier a few weeks ago. The Depaul Blue Demons (14-13, 2-12 Big East) snuck by Georgetown with the x-factor being Charlie Moore, 20 points & 7 assists. Romeo Weems added 19 points. Paul Reed is coming off a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds + 3 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks, and tonight he will be getting his 17th double-double! Tip off starts at 7:00 - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks!
Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY on the Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7 Big East conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball Predictions.
THE MAC HAS HIS RED ALERT PLAY - 7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6
Southeastern prime time game - A Big 10 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats!
College Basketball Season is how we make money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's RED ALERT CBB & NBA Picks are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass! CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (7:00 Kentucky -6 vs Texas A&M +6) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (8:00 Drake +7 vs Loyola Chicago -7) NBA RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 25) - (10:05 New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers -7.5) CBB MAJOR MOVE ALERT (FEB 25) - (7:00 Depaul +7 vs Xavier -7)
The MAC is attacking today's hoops games with a fury, as he rolls from sportsbook to sportsbook hunting down the very best odds, info, and payouts! Patreon Plays are up and we are moving units and building a March Madness war chest!
As we start moving into March with some great teams making noise this season, the tournaments start opening up, pick'ems, bracket challenges, basketball pools, all the sponsors start looking for professional players to feature at their events and Vegas turns into a sharps dream, MAC will be ripping down every tournament that will grant his entry.
The Red Alert Wagers team has been hitting the sources and making the phones bleed with long hours of networking - Red Alert Plays have been been on fire and make no mistake our Exclusive Releases are incendiary picks, the game is making units for members and proving why they dub the MAC the Paymaster - RedAlertWagers.com plays to win & MAC plays for keeps - For all RedAlertWagers.com special release NBA and College Basketball picks go to Patreon.com/MACSPICKS or try our 1 Day Red Pass for $14.99
Top Rated Special Release Plays by Red Alert Wagers SS Consensus groups were impressive this Football Season, our NFL Major Move Alerts and Early Info Plays cracked bookies open and cleaned them out. College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 69% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. We don't go where the game is, we bring YOU where the money is! - $25 Gets 1 Month Special Release Action + All Red Alert Picks!

DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS

  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (La Salle +11)
  • NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 25) - (Wyoming +8.5)
  • NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 25) - (Portland Trail Blazers +7.5)
*FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (FEB 25) - (NBA - Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 X CBB Wyoming +8.5)
**EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE EASY MONEY HONDA CLASSIC PICK (FEB 27) - (Rickie Fowler +1200) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (NORMA DUMONT +195) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC ON ESPN+27 (FEB 29) - (TOM BREESE -120)
submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Disrespect Index - Teams vs. Spread Rankings (12/2/19): Indiana, Memphis, Ohio St., Rutgers on top

Update: Corrected (now wrong title, sorry) - thanks for spotting a data error! Also updated thr. 12/1

Some argue that winning while beating the spread is the true mark of a champion. (Others claim it's pure chance, but that's less fun.)
I think it's fun to rank teams by this metric, under the premise that teams consistently winning & beating the spread are being systematically disrespected by odds-makers/the public.
Last season's most disrespected teams by this metric were MSU at #1, UVA at #2, then Drake, Houston, Gonzaga, Wofford. This only counts the regular season, ignoring the NCAA tournament.
For this year, Oregon State and SD State are off to great starts, along with the usual log-jam until more games are played and things get spread out some.
More detailed stats at http://disrespectindex.com
Percentage of games won while beating the spread
Team Record
1 Oregon State Beavers Oregon State 75% (6 / 8 games)
- San Diego State Aztecs San Diego State 75% (6 / 8 games)
3 Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Campbell Fighting Camels Campbell 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Clemson Tigers Clemson 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Connecticut Huskies Connecticut 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Delaware Blue Hens Delaware 71% (5 / 7 games)
- DePaul Blue Demons DePaul 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Drake Bulldogs Drake 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Indiana Hoosiers Indiana 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Michigan Wolverines Michigan 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Northern Iowa Panthers Northern Iowa 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State 71% (5 / 7 games)
- Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State 71% (5 / 7 games)
15 George Mason Patriots George Mason 67% (6 / 9 games)
- Stanford Cardinal Stanford 67% (6 / 9 games)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves Arkansas State 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Baylor Bears Baylor 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Canisius Golden Griffins Canisius 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Dartmouth College Big Green Dartmouth 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Dayton Flyers Dayton 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Furman Paladins Furman 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Stephen F. Austin 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Portland Pilots Portland 67% (4 / 6 games)
- Stephen F. Austin State Lumberjacks Stephen F. Austin 67% (4 / 6 games)
If you bet $110 on your team to beat the spread each game:
Current Winners
Team Money won
Tennessee State Tigers Tennessee State $700
Coppin State Eagles Coppin State $690
Yale Bulldogs Yale $590
Fairfield Stags Fairfield $590
Clemson Tigers Clemson $490
Connecticut Huskies Connecticut $490
La Salle Explorers La Salle $490
Stanford Cardinal Stanford $480
California State-Sacramento Hornets Sacramento State $400
Dartmouth College Big Green Dartmouth $390
Current Losers
Team Money won
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Florida Gulf Coast $-780
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils CCSU $-670
Howard Bison Howard $-670
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners UTSA $-660
South Carolina State Bulldogs South Carolina State $-550
Texas Rio Grande Vaqueros UTRGV $-550
California-Davis Aggies UC Davis $-460
Davidson College Wildcats Davidson $-460
Florida Gators Florida $-460
Grand Canyon Antelope Grand Canyon $-460
 
Full stats, including conference charts and historical data
submitted by Cav_vaC to CollegeBasketball [link] [comments]

History of Rigged NBA, Organized Crime in Sports, Discussion of Possible Solutions

crowd starts chanting REF YOU SUCK
This is a little lighter than standard /conspiracy faire but I think it was worth a shot here in hopes of generating some real discussion, spreading awareness, and hopefully we can all learn something about the nature of professional sports and high level competition.
As I'm sure some are aware, we are less than 15 years removed from a game-rigging scandal that involved NBA referees not only fixing games for their own personal benefit but on behalf of organized crime. This particular incident as officially investigated by the FBI went on for several years at least.
So why now? NBA Popularity seems to be at all-time high and the playoffs this year have been especially awful - the call consistency in each series is laughable. I wrote the majority of this post while watching the first part of the Blazers v Thunder game 5 last night - the first half merited about a dozen threads on /nba complaining about the calls which were all deleted - so after trying to discuss these issues in /nba several times and even trying a thread on /nbadiscussion, I'm now here to attempt to discuss these issues in a serious way.
Some background facts:
NBA has been investigated by the FBI for game fixing / rigging as recently as 2007. Phone records were obtained that proved referee Tim Donaghy was fixing games, collaborating with other referees, and was even involved with organized crime. Despite this evidence of networked corruption, Donaghy was the ONLY one who was punished. He spent 13 months in prison. He wrote a book about the scandal called "Personal Foul" which was published in 2009. Donaghy was also the son of a successful career referee who worked national championship college games for the NCAA.
Incidents like this go back much further than Ayesha Curry (Steph Curry's wife who famous tweeted about game fixing a couple years ago) or Tim Donaghy back into the Jordan era and before. There was famously a Kings vs Lakers series in 2002, The Blazers vs Lakers series of 2000, and the Bucks vs Sixers series of 2001 - all of which have many youtube videos dedicated to them for those who are interested.
The NBA and other sports leagues only enforce rules selectively in order to promote certain narratives or players to create a positive image for the league. The cases above were all about creating Shaq / Kobe Laker tradition and promoting the legacy of Allen Iverson - all of whom are now in the Hall of Fame and continue to work to promote the NBA. Selective rule enforcement along with backroom deals appear to be the mainstay of how this rigging is accomplished from my perspective.
Once you learn about these incidents it's really incredibly naive to believe the NBA is not heavily managed.
"[The NBA] should come out and say it’s a form of entertainment, not an athletic event like in college." - Ex-NBA Ref Tim Donaghy
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/may/22/ex-nba-ref-tim-donaghy-organized-will-always-have-a-hand-in-sports
Anyone claiming the fans are delusional and the reffing is fine is either on the take or has no clue about the actual history of these issues. Blaming the fans is the equivalent of blaming the victim - the fans support the league with their money and their interest and for the most part, like myself, only want to see good competition. On the contrary, it's the league which is corrupt and has means, motive and opportunity to rig it's own contests.
There are more examples like this of the game being warped over the years to help certain narratives develop and to keep attention on the league - and other rules designed to regulate the flow and pacing of the game to give the television audience a more "watchable" product.
The results is that there seems to be a growing distance between what we all think of as "basketball" and what we see during an NBA game.
So what do I propose?
I recognize this sort of a pipe dream, however, I'd like to have the discussion in the hopes of affecting some positive change somewhere down the line, or perhaps at least to raise some awareness regarding these issues.
In reality there may simply be too much money and too many people involved to police this effectively as long as groups with business interest control the league. Honestly, in my opinion, world-wide sports leagues should be governed with public interest in mind rather than by private groups for business interests. Not a single major sports league can be trusted as it currently stands in my opinion. From concussions to game-rigging to free-speech issues for athletes.
Since the Donaghy incident, the NBA has boldly moved forward to make betting on games not only legal, but a part of the NBA entertainment experience. There's simply too much money to be made and businesses like to make money. Ex-NBA ref Tim Donaghy once said 'Organized crime will always have a hand in sports' and this was before betting became legal and it's now being actively encouraged as a revenue stream.
I realize some of /conspiracy will have no interest in this, but I believe others will understand my perspective - this is just another example of corruption in our day and age and another exercise in fighting and exposing it.
I was hoping to keep discussion on the history rigged sports and ways to help ensure fairness but I welcome any type of constructive input. Thanks for reading.
submitted by natavism to conspiracy [link] [comments]

I get the impression fading "the public" has jumped the shark

Once a betting strategy gets widespread adoption then you gotta figure it probably doesn't work anymore.
I don't have the best data anyone could have on this, but from where I sit it looks like "the public's" top bets this year have done pretty well. Such as Michigan and Bowling Green last week.
It's gotten to the point that when I check my bets against "the public," I am starting to see it as a positive if "the public" and I are on the same teams.
I'm not really sure who "the public" is or where these numbers come from, hence the quotes. But you can see it places like here
submitted by rebelde_sin_causa to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

NCAAF Betting Insights - YouTube Sharp And Public Betting Report I College Bowls Opening Lines with BetDSI Biggest public plays and sharp selections for NCAA football Week 3 odds: Live From Las Vegas NFL Odds Reports: Where is the Public Betting? Free NCAA College Football ATS Picks, Parlays & Predicitions for Saturday 10-20-18

Perhaps the most significant difference between pro football and college football is that variation in public interest and you can find that reflecting in betting trends. While NFL football is a 'big deal' throughout the country, not every college football team or matchup captures the imagination of the betting public. The NCAA enforcement campaign, “Don’t Bet on It,” is educational content for use by NCAA member institutions and the public regarding the impact sports wagering can have on student-athletes, athletics departments, schools and the integrity of the game itself. Monitoring public betting data is a vital tool used by sharp bettors to find value within the sports betting marketplace. Spread. A point spread allows bettors to wager on the margin of victory in a college basketball game. A -8 favorite needs to win by nine points or more to cover the spread. A +8 underdog needs to lose by less than eight NCAA Basketball Betting Trends. See who the public is betting on and get deeper insight into the college basketball betting marketplace. These percentages represent real bets made at our contributing sportsbooks. Unlike other sites that only show consensus data, our NBA basketball odds data is taken from real bets placed at actual sportsbooks. Listening to LOGIC. The logic behind the “fade the public” concept makes sense if you don’t examine it very deeply, a touchstone of bad betting strategies across the spectrum. The supposed logic goes like this – if you always bet against the masses, you’ll be more likely to take advantage of in-game aberrations, bad points spreads, and over-analysis by oddsmakers and punters alike.

[index] [12070] [13226] [15346] [12432] [14384] [14618] [13686] [3758] [7162] [6555]

NCAAF Betting Insights - YouTube

Our systems work for all major U.S. Sports - the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Football and NCAA basketball. Sign up for a FREE Demo of our Bet Labs customizable historical odds database here - http ... Learn how to bet on sports. Betting Against the Public, or "contrarian betting", is one of the most popular and simplest winning betting strategies. The logic is simple; always bet against the... The college bowl schedule is set, and the opening lines for all the bowls have been released market-wide. SBR Videos host Peter Loshak chats with Brent, the Head Lines Manager at BetDSI sportsbook ... Don't listen to your friends or coworkers, and play the NFL odds like a master. Pro handicapper Jordan Sharp takes a look at NBA betting lines movement to give you an idea of how the public has ... Cappers Nation LIVE daily Sports Betting Show airs Monday-Friday at 12PM EST and Saturday-Sunday at 9AM EST right here on youtube and our website. Make sure to check out website and twitter ...