Military Wives will beat The X Factor's Little Mix in

2020...so far

So how bad has it been? When I started this, it was because I was bored. I wanted to see just how much shit has happened. Midway through, I was shocked. Then finally sad and angry.
-Enjoy!
2020
Jan 1 -Australia is on fucking fire. Like all of it. And Hong Kong is too?
Jan 2 I think Turkey just murdered an Iranian general in broad daylight. Great start so far, 2020. HK police are reported to have used excessive force. See, America is still an influence on the world!
Jan 7. I heard there is a virus named because you drink Corona beer?? Shit sign me up, I can use a few days off.
Jan. 8. Remember when Iran launched two missiles at a US Base? Also, Russia may have shot down a Ukrainian airline killing 173 but I'm not sure.
Jan 11. That virus just killed someone. Shit don’t sign me up.
Jan 16. Seriously, does anyone remember that the impeachment of President Trump was this year? I sure as shit didn't.
Jan 20. The first 'Rona case in the US. Yes, this thing has a meme.
Jan 23. Lockdown in Wuhan. Not the rap song, an actual lockdown of 11 million
Jan. 26 fuck.
Jan 31 I am sorry, did you say Brexit actually HAPPENED?
Well January, you sucked. Taking Kobe was a real dick punch, but February has to be better.
Feb 4. Iowa Caucus-shmacus, what is the hold up here?
Feb. 5 How do you fuck this up? Trump really gets to stay. Wow.
Feb 11 Due to the impact on Latin-created beer the virus is now known as Covid-19
Feb 24 Is this really the highlight of the year? Harvey goes to jail for being a rapist.
Feb 27 Dow drops over 1100 in one day. Speculators rejoice! Meanwhile in Syria, Russia shows how much fucks it gives again and strikes 33 Turkish soldiers dead.
God damn it, what the hell 2020?
Mar 5 ICC allows for the Afghan War Crimes inquiry allowing US citizens to be investigated. Bet you didn’t know that one, huh?
March 9 Dow drops 2013 in one day making Feb 27 look like baby cakes.
March 10 Hey, remember when they locked down an entire city? Italy said, "I think that we can top it."
March 11 The WHO declares the coronavirus a pandemic. What. The. Fuck.
Mar 12 Dow drops 2352 in one day making 1929 look like baby cakes. Also, MLB postpones their season and I can decide which is more important here.
Mar 13 RIP Breonna Taylor. President Chump, err... Trump declares national emergency finally.
Mar 14 Spain lock-down
Mar 15 Ides of March, aye?
Mar 16 Dow drops 2352 in one day making... wait, is this the new norm?
Mar 17 Iran announces millions may be infected. 90% of cases so far in the Middle East are here. Sorry Iran, shitty year for everyone, we will get through it.
Mar 20 20k dead from Covid-19 so far. Oh man this is going to be bad. CA becomes first US state to lock-down. Ahh, no place like home.
Mar 24 India goes into full lock-down. India. Yeah, the billion-plus India. Plus, no Olympics this year. Bummer.
Mar 27 North Macedonia becomes the 30th country to join NATO. God damn it I am reaching for something good but I got nothing. NOTHING!
Mar 30 A passenger train derails near Chenzhou, China, killing one person and leaving 127 people injured. Oil drops below $23, lowest since 2002 - ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.
Eyes closed:
April will be better. April will be better. April will be better. April will be better. April will be better.
Open eyes:
FUCK!!
Apr. 1 What the hell is Tiger King?
Apr 2 Covid-19 coming in hot, number of cases passes 1M worldwide
Apr. 4 Turkey hides Ministry of Interior after riots erupt in a large prison due to fears of Covid-19.
Apr 5 QE II addresses the UK for the 5th time in 68 years. Also, do people really think 5G will give you Covid-19?
Apr 6 Russian Imperial Movement is labeled a terrorist group. They are, but it also happened today.
Apr 7 Japan passes $990B in relief of Covid-19. or 20% of their GDP.
Apr 8 Say it ain’t so, Joe? Biden becomes presumptive dem nominee as Bernie drops out.
Apr 9 NY state declares more Covid-19 cases than any country in the world. Yep, you read that right.
Apr 10 Russia shows how much fucks it gives yet again by saying they do not have plans to discuss oil market turmoil. Death toll for Covid-19 hits 100k worldwide. And the first case of Ebola since Feb...wait, what the fuck? One virus at a goddamn time, 2020!
Apr 12 Pope Francis live streams the Urbi et Orbi blessing for the second time in just a month. This is only supposed to happen at Christmas or Easter. Jesus. Christ. Literally.
Apr 14 US President Trump announces the US is suspending funding of the World Health Organization (WHO). Yeah you read that right. Suspend during a fucking pandemic. Your President ladies and gentlemen. IMF also says we are going into something akin to the Great Depression.
Apr 15 Tax Day delayed, so there is that. Covid-19 passes 2M cases worldwide. Tour de France also delayed. I guess steroids don’t work on the virus.
Apr 17 UN announces Myanmar has been carrying out daily airstrikes that at least 32 civilians (mostly women and children) have been killed since March 23
Apr 19 Israel hits the streets in protest to Bibi and his corrupt government. 17 dead in a killing spree in Nova Scotia. Unrest starts to break out in Paris, Berlin and other cities opposing the lockdown
Apr. 20 So let me get this straight, oil is so cheap you will pay me to take it? I see you, 2020, I see you. Also, The Industrial Bank of Korea to pay US$86M and will enter a 2yr deferred prosecution agreement to settle with US DoJ and the state of NY for a 2011 scheme to help transfer US$1B to Iran. Bibi finds a way somehow again to stay. Tom Thabane resigns from Lesotho as PM, showing that killing your ex-wife is wrong there too.
Apr 21 Mozambique police say 52 male villagers were killed by Islamist militants for not joinging.
Apr 22 Iran's Islamic RG Corps deploys the country's first military satellite.
Apr 25 separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announces the establishment of a self-rule administration in southern Yemen. This is bad, like, really bad. Also, the global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 200,000.
Apr 27 The Pentagon formally releases three videos of "unidentified aerial phenomena" encountered by the United States Navy. Cases of COVID-19 passes 3 million worldwide
Apr 28 Protests erupt in major cities across Lebanon for the second day over the country's continuing economic problems.
Apr. 29 Who didn’t see this one coming? An asteroid zooms past Earth with an approach of 0.042 AU (6.3 million km; 16 LD). That’s pretty effing close, man.
Apr 30 The government of Sudan criminalizes female genital mutilation. OH MY GOD SOMETHING POSITIVE!!!!!!
I don’t want to do this anymore.
May 3-4 Silvercorp USA and Operation Gideon. Blackwater eat your heart out. Silvercorp, you too. Please. Literally. I think we lost the driver of this bus somewhere in 2019.
May 5 The UK death toll from COVID-19 became the highest in Europe at 32,313 after exceeding the death toll of 29,029 in Italy.
May 6 New evidence indicates that an Algerian-born French fishmonger, who had not traveled to China and did not have contact with any Chinese nationals, was treated for pneumonia from an unknown source, now identified as COVID-19, on December 27, 2019.
May 7 11 people die and over 5,000 fall ill from a styrene gas leak in India
May 9 Chinese and Indian soldiers are injured in a cross-border clash at Nathu La
May 10 The Iranian Navy frigate Jamaran accidentally strikes the Iranian support vessel Konarak with a missile, killing nineteen sailors in friendly fire. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 4 million worldwide. Wuhan, the original epicenter of the pandemic, reports its first coronavirus cases in more than a month
May 12 Gunmen storm a maternity hospital and kill 24 people in Kabul. In Kuz Kunar a suicide bomber kills 32 at a funeral.
May 14 The global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 300,000.
May 18 UN announces 700k affected in recent 2020 East Africa floods
May 25 RIP George Floyd
May 26 And the people react.
May 27 RIP Tony McDade. RIP Calvin Horton, Jr. RIP David McAtee. RIP David Patrick Underwood. RIP Myqwon Blanchard.
Also, China closes autonomous Hong Kong with legislation. U.S. death toll passes for Covid-19 100,000 - more Americans than were killed in the Vietnam War and Korean War combined and approaching WW1 levels.
May 28 The Denver Post photographer is struck with pepper bullets. Not an accident.
May 29 Omar Jiménez arrested while giving a live CNN television report in Minneapolis. Linda Tirado, a freelance photojournalist, was hit in the eye with a rubber bullet or a pellet by the police in the same city. In Louisville, Kentucky, an officer fired pepper bullets at a reporter from NBC affiliate WAVE who was reporting live on air for her station.
May 30 RIP Barry Perkins. RIP James Scurlock. RIP Sarah Grossman. RIP Chris Beaty. RIP Marvin Francois. RIP John Tiggs. NYPD vehicles were recorded ramming into protesters. a Reuters crew were fired on with rubber bullets in Minneapolis. Deutsche Welle journalist Stefan Simons and his team were shot at by police in Minneapolis. Lesson of the day: DO NOT EVER GO TO MINNEAPOLIS.
May 31 RIP Dorian Murell. Police pull Taniyah Pilgrim and Messiah Young over, breaking the windows, yanking Taniyah out of the car and tasing Messiah. Justin Howell. Minneapolis PD thinks they are in GTA San Andreas and do drive-by chemical sprays. Adolfo Guzman-Lopez, a reporter for Los Angeles NPPRI affiliate KPCC was hit in the throat with a rubber bullet. Los Angeles Times reporter Molly Hennessy-Fiske reported reporters and camera crews being at the receiving end of tear gas by Minnesota State Patrol, while the same happened to an KABC-TV news crew in Santa Monica. Detroit Free Press journalists were pepper sprayed by the city's police, as was KSTP reporter Ryan Raiche along with other journalists. BBC cameraman, Peter Murtaugh, was purposely attacked by police on May 31 outside the White House. Murtaugh filmed a line of police officers charging without warning, whereby a shield-wielding officer tackled Murtaugh to the ground. Also, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 6 million worldwide
We are killing each other.
I. Don’t. Want. To. Do. This. Anymore.
June 1 David McAtee RIP. Italia Marie Kelly RIP. In Cicero, Illinois, two men were fatally shot in separate incidents following an "afternoon of unrest" - Jose Gutierrez and Victor Cazares Jr RIP. In Las Vegas, police shot and killed Jorge Gomez RIP. Australian journalist Amelia Brace and cameraman Tim Myers assaulted by United States Park Police. President Dickhead clears a path to an old church for a photo op with a bible. That path is cleared by tear gas, rubber bullets, and flash grenades.
June 2 Blackout Tuesday. Unidentified looter in Philly shot and killed and another severely injured while attempting to break into an ATM. RIP David Dorn. RIP Sean Monterrosa. Leslie Furcron shot between the eyes with a bean bag. Grand Rapids PD goes ballistic and pepper sprays everyone. $5B class action lawsuit is filed against Alphabet Inc. and Google, alleging the company violates users' right to privacy .
June 3 RIP Robert Forbes. General Keith Ellison increases the charge against Derek Chauvin. Cyclonic Storm Nisarga hits Mumbai. 20,000 tons of oil leaked into the Ambarnaya River.
June 4 Buffalo PD shows just how tough they are when they almost kill a 75 year old man. Then say Martin Gugino attacked them, only to change the story yet again when the video comes out. I see a running theme here with these folks. Also, Prez Chump puts new fencing to expand the White House perimeter, and continues to hide in a bunker.
June 7 COVID-19 pandemic: The global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 400,000.
June 8 In Seattle, wannabe anarchists attempt to steal BLM movement with Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone. COVID-19 pandemic: The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 7 million worldwide
June 9 George is finally laid to rest, RIP.
June 11 NASCAR bans Stars and Bars 150 years after those traitorous assholes lost. I guess better late than never. But 150 fucking years! Oh yeah and some jackass named Ray Ciccarelli quits because of it. Ugh, it never ends does it?
June 12 Ok at this point 2020, can you please just give me a week where nothing happens that signals The End is near? How about a rainbow, you got any of those anymore?
-OUT
submitted by SDBolt to WritingHub [link] [comments]

[Online Poker/Proposition Bets] A Very Controversial $70k Proposition Bet

I wrote this article on poker and I thought it would go down well here, it has some online poker hand histories and some poker lingo but it’s not vital to the story. The post is pretty long but it’s got it all: large amounts of money being bet, degenerate behavior and community outrage in the world of online poker. To give some context, poker was and still is taken very seriously by many people. Some of these poker players are professional players and some are professional players online. Online poker was very popular between ‘The Poker Boom’ of 2003 and ‘Black Friday’ of 2011 and serious money could be made with hard work, careful money management and discipline. It was (and still could be) possible to achieve winrates of $20-300+ an hour. The 2+2 Poker forums were incredibly popular during these times; the following post chronicles a proposition bet on the 2+2 forums. A proposition bet is where someone takes bets on the likelihood of them completing a task.
Here’s a quick glossary:
Buy in: The normal amount of money that you buy in for in a poker cash game
50nl/100nl: The way to describe online stakes. 50nl means the big blind is 50 cents and that the normal buy in is for $50, $100nl means the big blind is $1 and the normal buy in is $100.
HU: Heads up, this means just two players in a hand. It’s considered to be a skillful and difficult form of poker
Escrow: A third party who takes care of cash in a bet or trade. They should only move cash as agreed by both sides or the rules set.
Grinder: Some who plays a large volume of hands. Usually a serious player. If they play online, they may play 4-12 tables of poker at once.
Fish: A weaker poker player

The Site

The modern cash game grinder may be surprised to hear that there used to be a Sharkscope style tracking website for online cash games, it was called PokerTableRatings or PTR. It tracked hands fairly accurately. Today, it doesn’t exist and has been shut down for years but it was a valuable resource for grinders and having one browser open to check out opponents was useful. PTR showed your graph and win rates at different stakes, it also had an achievement system. Some achievements were serious like ‘1 Million Dollars In Profit’ and some were less serious like ‘Check Raise 3 Times In A Hand’. One coveted achievement given by PTR was the ‘Ultimate Grinder’. This was given to the most profitable player each month at each stake, this was all tracked on the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard. So for example: if you are the top of the leaderboard for 50NL in December 2008, you will receive the ‘Ultimate Grinder December 50nl 2008’ badge on your PTR profile.

The Bets

The year is 2010. Johnathon Duhamel has won the WSOP Main Event. Poker, especially online poker is still booming. The grinders are plentiful. The fish are more plentiful. Posts flow on 2+2 like wine.
Enter Silent_0ne. He puts out a proposition bet on BBV (Beats, Brags and Variance: a subforum of 2+2 which is the precursor to Poker’s weekly BBV thread). Back in the golden days of online poker and 2+2 it was common for large prop bets to be made on BBV. Silent_0ne’s prop bet is he will be the ultimate grinder for December 2010 at 100nl. No easy feat, the previous months' ultimate grinders had won between $12k-18k and Silent_0ne claimed to have never played more than 10 tables or ever played on Pokerstars. The odds were set at 6:1 odds in Silent’s_0ne’s favour. Jalexand42 was selected to be the escrow and judge of this prop bet, so he will be the middleman for the money and he will arbitrate any disputes. The rules were set down covered many different situations. The judge was confident of this:
Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)
He would turn out to be so wrong.
Many 2+2 posters weighed their opinions in and started to place bets:
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
By the 28th November, with 3 days to go until the challenge begins the bets were placed and finalized, 14 people put up between $600-$3k. Silent_0ne stood to gain $67,500 or lose $11,250 from the bet alone. In just a few days he would put himself at the mercy of variance and would dedicate himself to destroying 100nl. If he overcomes this challenging month, he stood to win a significant amount of money.

The Play

December the first rolled in and Silent_0ne starting playing. It was a rocky start for him, he finished day two down more than $2k and received comments from 2+2 posters like:
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)
However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got owned
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
Day 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.
Silent_0ne was bringing out his inner grinder and was playing 16 hour sessions and seeing huge swings in the first week. Day 7 and he posted some hands that shocked the community and his growing fan base:
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
Here are two of the hands he posted:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
and:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne explained:
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)
Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)
This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.

The New Bet

Enter Fees. Fees is the 2+2 username of Ryan Fee (Currently on Team Upswing), at this point he was known for being a fearsome 2000nl grinder and writing Ryan Fee’s 6 max guide, which he distributed for free. In a world where succinct and good poker strategy was hard to come by, this was a valuable guide for many players. He takes interest in the thread on the 7th of December:
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)
Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)
Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?
Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
By the 10th of December things looked tough for Silent_0ne, the player of the top of the 50nl leaderboard was already at $2.5k profit (50 buy ins). Silent_0ne was up $1.1k and estimated he was only 2-3 days behind pace. By the 12th of December he was still playing brutally long sessions:
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)
He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)
But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
  1. vaike $3,142, 19.38 Hands BB/100
  2. zzn1980 $2,833, 2.46 Hands BB/100
  3. Silent_0ne69 $2,634, 5.19 Hands B/100
For the first time people are starting to believe that he can do this.
Fast forward to the next day, December 13th and with another miraculous winning session he reaches number one on the leaderboard. He has $3.4k profit at 50nl and number two is close behind with $3.1k, if he can maintain his win rate of 6b/100 hands then he should have a very real chance of making incredible comeback.
14th December. Fees posts:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1
Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
Soon after, a poster in the thread reveals that:
tightmaniac: fees is 4th
It is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)
The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional state
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
For the first time in a few days Fees posts:
Fees: Hey,
Just to clear a few things up,
  1. I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
  2. I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352
Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.
Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
theskillzdatklls: Afaik, Fees did not ship his $25k share to Doug, only Colin [Silent_0ne] sent his part. (#1669)
2+2 reacts:
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:
  1. He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
  2. He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
  3. I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
  4. WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
  5. WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
  6. I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.
The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.

The Outcome

On the 17th of December and Silent_0ne slips to number 2 on the leaderboards.
  1. vaike $3,835 ,17.44BB/100
  2. Silent_0ne69 $3,523, 4.25BB/100
Silent_0ne then makes a post that changes everything:
Silent_0ne : Hello everyone
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
So, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
Link to original thread.
submitted by GiantHorse to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

Oscars 2021: An inside look (like, really inside) to 50 possible contenders in the next awards race

Another Oscar ceremony happened, and we got our fair share of joy and disappointment. After Parasite surprised the world and took Best Picture, it seems like the game has changed for the awards race, now that non-English speaking films can actually fight and be recognized as well as classics as… Green Book. The Oscar race is still full of pain and glory, and even though the year has barely started, we have a bunch of movies that are fighting for air. And here’s 50 of them. Yes, I had some free time in my hands and this is a cool hobby, so I took the liberty to introduce most of the movies that will have Film Twitter entertained for the following 12 months. I say most, because there are always contenders who come out of nowhere later in the year, so this is the starter set. Here we go.
-Annette: Since Parasite’s road to the Oscars started at Cannes, it seems fair to talk about a movie that is circling a premiere in the world stage that is set in France. After delivering weird, indie classics like Mauvais Sang and Holy Motors (yes, the kind of movies that make you seem like a snob when you recommend them to people), Leos Carax is making his first movie spoken in the English language… and it has a musical screenplay written by the cult rock duo of Sparks. Recently robbed Adam Driver and previous Oscar winner Marion Cotillard sing in this tale of a stand-up comedian and a famous soprano singer who rise and fall in Los Angeles while their daughter is born with a special gift. It seems like a wild bet, but we already know that Carax is a master with musical moments, so this is one of the most intriguing question marks of the year.
-Ammonite: It’s time to talk narratives. On the one hand, we have Kate Winslet, a known name who hasn’t been very successful in the Oscar race since her Oscar win for The Reader over a decade ago (with the exception being her supporting performance in Steve Jobs, where she had a weird accent). On the other, we have Saoirse Ronan, a star on the rise who keeps collecting Oscar nominations, with 4 nods at the age of 25, including her fresh Best Actress loss for Little Women. What happens if we put them together in a drama set in the coasts of England during the 19th century where both of them fall for each other? That’s gonna be a winning formula if writedirector Francis Lee (who tackled queer romance in his acclaimed debut God’s Own Country) nails the Mary Anning story, and Neon (the distribution company founded three years ago that took Parasite to victory) is betting on it.
-Benedetta: We know the Paul Verhoeven story. After isolating himself from Hollywood for over a decade, he took Isabelle Huppert to an Oscar nominated performance with the controversial, sexy, dark and funny thriller Elle. Now, he’s back with another story that perks up the ears, because now he’s covering the life of Benedetta Carlini, a 17th-century lesbian nun who had religious and erotic visions. If you know Paul, you already can tell that this fits into his brand of horniness, and a possible Cannes premiere could tell us if this has something to carry itself to Oscar night.
-Blonde: With a short but impactful directorial credits list that takes us from Chopper, to The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford to Killing Them Softly, Andrew Dominik is back with a film about Marilyn Monroe, a woman who has transcended the ideas of fame and stardom, in ways that are glamorous and nightmarish at the same time. After failing to launch with Naomi Watts or Jessica Chastain,the rising Ana de Armas takes the lead in the retelling of Monroe’s troubled life based on Joyce Carol Oates’ novel, which is said to be covered in the screenplay as somewhat of a horror movie. We don’t know what that means yet, but Netflix is gonna push hard for this one, especially considering how the Academy loves throwing awards to stars playing previous stars, and that also can possibly include co-stars Bobby Cannavale and Adrien Brody.
-Breaking News in Yuba County: While he hasn’t gone back to the heights of his success achieved by the box office and award success of The Help (a movie that did not age well), Tate Taylor is still enjoying himself economically due to recent thrillers like The Girl on the Train and Ma. For his next movie, he’s made a dramedy that once again reunites him with Oscar winner Allison Janney, where she plays a woman who has to keep appearances and a hidden body when she catches her husband cheating on her, and then he dies of a heart attack. With a cast that also includes Mila Kunis, Regina Hall, Awkwafina, Samira Wiley, Wanda Sykes, Jimmi Simpson and Ellen Barkin, this could be a buzzy title later this year.
-C’mon C’mon: You may love or hate whatever Joaquin Phoenix did in Joker, but you can’t deny the benefit of playing the Crown Prince of Crime in an Oscar-winning performance. The blank check that you share with indie directors afterwards. Now that Joaquin’s cultural cachet is on the rise, Mike Mills gets to benefit with this drama that stars Phoenix and Gaby Hoffmann, with him playing an artist left to take care of his precocious young nephew as they forge an unexpected bond over a cross country trip. We only have to wonder if A24 will do better with this movie’s Oscar chances compared to 20th Century Women.
-Cherry: After killing half the universe and bringing them back with the highest grossing movie of all time, where do you go? For Joe and Anthony Russo, the answer is “away from the Marvel Cinematic Universe”. The Russo brothers are trying to distance themselves and prove that they have a voice without Kevin Feige behind them, with a crime drama that’s also different than their days when they directed You, Me and Dupree or episodes of Arrested Development and Community. To help them in the journey, they took Tom Holland (who also needs to distance himself from Spider-Man, lest he ends up stuck to the character in the audience’s eyes) to star in a crime drama based on former Army medic Nico Walker’s memoir about his days after Iraq, where the PTSD and an opioid addiction led him to start robbing banks.
-Da 5 Bloods: After bouncing back from a slump with the critical and commercial success of BlackKklansman, Spike Lee is cashing a Netflix check to tell the tale of four African American veterans who return to Vietnam to search for their fallen leader and some treasure. With a cast that includes Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Isiah Whitlock Jr, Paul Walter Hauser and Chadwick Boseman, this sounds like an interesting combo, although we still should remember the last time that Spike tried his hand at a war movie, with the dull Miracle at St. Anna.
-Dune: If you are on Reddit, you probably know about the new film by movies’ new Messiah, Denis Villeneuve. While the epic sci-fi novel by Frank Herbert is getting a new chance in the multiplexes after that David Lynch movie that was forgotten by many, some are hoping that this will be the beginning of a new franchise (as seen by the release date of December 18, taking the spot of the usual Star Wars opening), and a return to the whole “remember when stuff like Return of the King or Fury Road were nominated for Best Picture?” question. Timothee Chalamet will be riding a lot of hope, and sandworm.
-Everybody’s Talking About Jamie: As you start to see, there are several musicals that are gonna be fighting for attention over the next year, and Annette was the first one. Now, we also have this adaptation of the hit West End production, that centers around a gay British teenager who dreams of becoming a drag queen and get his family and schoolmates to accept his sexuality. With a cast that mixes young unknowns, familiar Brits (Sharon Horgan, Sarah Lancashire and my boy Ralph Ineson) and the previously nominated legend that is Richard E. Grant (who is playing a former drag queen named Loco Chanelle), the creative team of the stage musical will jump to the big screen with the help of Fox Searchlight (sorry, just Searchlight), who has clear Oscar hopes with a release date right in the middle of awards heat, on October 23.
-Hillbilly Elegy: Even though the Parasite victory gave many people hope for a new Academy that stops recognizing stuff like previous winner Green Book… let’s be honest, the Academy will still look for movies like Green Book. This year, many people are turning their eyes towards Ron Howard’ adaptation of J.D. Vance’s memoir about his low income life in a poor rural community in Ohio, filled with drugs, violence and verbal abuse. If this sounds like white trash porn, it doesn’t help to know that Glenn Close, who has become the biggest living Oscar bridesmaid with seven nominations, will play a character called Mamaw. And if that sounds trashy, then you have to know that Amy Adams, who follows Glenn with six nominations, is playing her drug-addicted, careless daughter. I don’t want to call this “Oscar bait”, but it sure is tempting.
-I’m Thinking of Ending Things: After his stopmotion existential dramedy Anomalisa got him a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Oscars but at the same time bombed at the box office, Charlie Kaufman is getting the Netflix check. This time, he’s adapting the dark novel by Iain Reid, about a woman (Jessie Buckley, who is on the rise and took over the role after Brie Larson had to pass) who is taken by her boyfriend (Jesse Plemons) to meet his parents (Toni Collette and David Thewlis), in a trip that takes a turn for the worse. If Kaufman can deliver with this one, it will be a big contender.
-In the Heights: Yes, more musicals! This time, it’s time to talk about Lin-Manuel Miranda’s first Tony-winning musical, that was overshadowed because of his other small play about some treasury secretary. Now, his Broadway ensemble tale about life in a neighborhood in Washington Heights is jumping to the movie screen with Jon Chu at the helm, following the success of Crazy Rich Asians. This Latino tale mixes up-and-comers like Anthony Ramos (who comes straight from Hamilton and playing Lady Gaga’s friend in A Star is Born), names like Corey Hawkins and Jimmy Smits (who is pro bits), and Olga Merediz, who starred in the Broadway show as Abuela Claudia and who could be the early frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, if Chu allows her to shine like she did onstage.
-Jesus Was My Homeboy: When looking at up-and-coming Black actors right now in Hollywood, two of the top names are Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield, who already appeared in the same movie in Get Out, which earned Kaluuya a Best Actor nomination. This time, they share the screen in Shaka King’s retelling of the story of Fred Hampton (Kaluuya), an activist and Black Panther leader… as well as the story of William O’Neal (Stanfield), the FBI agent sent by J. Edgar Hoover to infiltrate the party and arrest him. With the backing of Warner Bros, this will attempt to make an impact with a clash of actors that will have to fight with an August release date, not the ideal time to release an awards movie.
-King Richard: Starting with Suicide Squad, Will Smith has been trying to prove that he’s back and better than ever. Some attempts to get back to the top of the A-list (Aladdin, Bad Boys For Life) have worked, while others (Gemini Man, Spies in Disguise)... have not. But Will is still going, and now he’s going for his next prestige play as he plays Richard Williams, the coach and father of the tennis legends Venus and Serena, who pushed them to their full potential. While it’s weird that the father of the Williams sisters is getting a movie before them, it does sound like a meaty role for Smith, who has experience with Oscar notices with sports biopics because of what he did with Michael Mann in Ali. Let’s hope director Reinaldo Marcus Green can take him there too.
-Last Night in Soho: Every year, one or two directors who have a cool reputation end up in the Dolby Theatre, and 2020 could be the year of Edgar Wright. After delivering his first big box office hit with Baby Driver, the Brit is going back to London to tell a story in the realm of psychological horror, which has been supposedly inspired by classics like Don’t Look Now and Repulsion. With a premise that supposedly involves time travel and a cast that includes Anya-Taylor Joy, Thomasin McKenzie, Matt Smith and Diana Rigg, Wright (who also co-wrote this with Krysty Wilson-Cairns, who was just nominated for Best Original Screenplay for her work in 1917) is making a big swing.
-Let Them All Talk: Every year there’s more new streaming services, and that also means that there’s new players in the Oscar game. To secure subscribers to the new service, HBO Max has secured the rights to the next Steven Soderbergh movie, a comedy that stars Meryl Streep as a celebrated author that takes her friends (Candice Bergen, Dianne Wiest) and her nephew (Lucas Hedges, again) in a journey to find fun and come to terms with the past. The last time that Soderbergh and Streep worked together, the end result was the very disappointing The Laundromat. Let’s hope that this time everything works out.
-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Now that Netflix got the deal to adapt August Wilson’s acclaimed plays with Denzel Washington’s production company, the next jump from the stage to the screen is a meaty one. Viola Davis is playing blues singer Ma Rainey in this tale of a heated recording session with her bandmates, her agent and her producer in 1927, with a cast that also includes Chadwick Boseman, Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo. The Tony nominated play talked about race, art and the intersection of the two, and it’s gonna be explosive to see that unfold on screen, even if director George C. Wolfe’s previous filmography isn’t very encouraging.
-Macbeth: In a shocking development, the Coen brothers are no more. Well, just this time. For the first time in his career, Joel Coen is making a movie without Ethan, and it’s a Shakespeare adaptation. Denzel Washington is playing the man who wants to be king of Scotland, and Frances McDormand is playing his Lady Macbeth. While this just started filming and it will be a race to finish it in time for competition in the awards race, the potential is there, and this project has everybody’s attention.
-Mank: After scoring 24 Oscar nominations and only winning 2 awards last Sunday, Netflix has to wonder what else must they do to get in the club that awards them. They tried with Cuarón, they tried with Scorsese, they tried with Baumbach, they tried with two Popes, and they still feel a barrier. Now, the big gamble for awards by the streamer in 2020 comes to us in the hands of David Fincher, who is basically their friend after the rest of Hollywood denied him (Disney dropped his 20,000 Leagues adaptation, HBO denied the US remake of Utopia, and Paramount drove World War Z 2 away from him). In his first movie since 2014’s Gone Girl, David will go black and white to tackle a script by his late father about the making of the classic of classics, Citizen Kane, with previous Oscar winner Gary Oldman playing the lead role of screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. Will the Academy fall for the ultimate “power of da moviesshhh” story?
-Minari: Sundance can be hit or miss with the breakout films that try to make it to the Oscars. However, you can’t deny the waves made by A24 when they premiered Lee Isaac Chung’s new drama there, ending up winning the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the US Dramatic Competition. If Parasite endeared Academy voters to Korean families, Steven Yeun hopes that the same thing happens with this story, where he plays a father in the ‘80s who suddenly decides to move his family to Arkansas to start a farm. Even though the reviews have been great, we must also remember that last year, A24 had in their hands The Farewell, another Sundance hit about an Asian family that ended up with no Oscar nominations. Let’s hope that this time, the Plan B influence (remember, that’s Brad Pitt’s production company, of Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave fame) makes a difference.
-Next Goal Wins: It’s a good time to be Taika Waititi. Why? Taika Waititi can do what he wants. He can direct a Thor movie, he can win an Oscar for writing a comedy set in WW2 about a Third Reich boy who has an Imaginary Hitler friend, or he can pop up in The Mandalorian as a droid. Taika keeps winning, and he wants more. Between his press tour for Jojo Rabbit and his return to the MCU, he quickly shot an adaptation of a great documentary about the disgraced national team of American Samoa, one of the worst football teams known to man, as they try to make the cut for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Everybody loves a good sports comedy, and Searchlight bets that we’ll enjoy this story led by Michael Fassbender as the new (and Dutch-American) coach in town who tries to shape the team for victory.
-News of the World: Seven years after their solid collaboration in Captain Phillips, Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks reunite for more awards love in what seems to be Universal’s main attraction for the Oscars. This time, Hanks stars in a Western drama based on Paulette Jiles’ novel where he plays a traveling newsreader in the aftermath of the American Civil War who is tasked with reuniting an orphaned girl with her living relatives. With a Christmas release date, Universal is betting big in getting the same nomination boost that 1917 is enjoying right now, and the formula is promising.
-Nightmare Alley: Following his Best Picture and Best Director wins for The Shape of Water, everybody in Hollywood wondered what would Guillermo del Toro do next. Well, as Del Toro often does, a little bit of everything and nothing. Some projects moved (as his produced Pinocchio movie on Netflix, or his Death Stranding likeness cameo), others stalled and die (like his proposed Fantastic Voyage remake). But now he’s rolling on his next project, a new adaptation of the William Lindsay Gresham novel that already was a Tyrone Power film in 1947. This noir tale tells the story of a con man (Bradley Cooper) who teams up with a psychiatrist (Cate Blanchett) to trick people and win money, and how things get out of control. With a cast that also includes Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara and more, this could play well if it hits the right tone.
-Nomadland: There’s breakout years, and then there’s the amazing potential of Chloe Zhao’s 2020. On the one hand, after making Hollywood notice her skill with the gripping story of The Rider, she got the keys to the MCU kingdom to direct the next potential franchise of Kevin Feige, The Eternals. And just in case, she also has in her sleeve this indie drama that she wrote and directed beforehand, with two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand playing a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad. If Chloe nails these two films, it could be the one-two punch of the decade.
-One Night in Miami: Regina King is living her best life. Following her Oscar win for Best Supporting Actress in If Beale Street Could Talk and the success that came with her lead role in the Watchmen show on HBO, the actress is jumping to a new challenge: directing movies. For her big screen debut, she’s adapting Kemp Powers’ play that dramatizes a real meeting on February 25, 1964, between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke and Jim Brown.
-Over the Moon: After earning praise and Oscar nominations with I Lost My Body and Klaus, Netflix will keep its bet on animated movies with a film directed by the legendary Glen Keane. Who? A classic Disney animator responsible for the design of characters like Ariel, the Beast, Aladdin, Pocahontas, Tarzan and more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jRkx2PNVr8), and who recently won an Oscar for Best Animated Short for Dear Basketball, which he co-directed with the late Kobe Bryant. Now, he brings us a musical adventure centered around a Chinese girl who builds a rocket ship and blasts off to the Moon in hopes of meeting a legendary Moon Goddess.
-Passing: It’s always interesting when an actor jumps behind the camera, and Rebecca Hall’s case is no exception. For her directorial debut, Hall chose to adapt Nella Larsen’s acclaimed novel set in Harlem in the 1920s, about two mixed race childhood friends (Ruth Negga and Tessa Thompson) who reunite in adulthood and become obsessed with one another's lives. With a premise that explores tough questions about race and sexuality, it looks like a tricky challenge for a first timer, but it would be more impressive if Hall manages to rise over the challenge.
-Prisoner 760: An interesting part of following the awards circuit is looking at when it's appropriate to talk about touchy subjects in recent history. I’m saying that because this next movie tells the real life tale of Mohamedou Ould Slahi (Tahar Rahim), a man who, despite not being charged or having a set trial, is held in custody at Guantanamo Bay, and turns towards a pair of lawyers (Jodie Foster and Shailene Woodley) to aid him. Based on the famous journal that the man wrote while he was being detained, the movie (that also counts with Benedict Cumberbatch) is directed by Kevin Macdonald who, a long time ago, helped Forest Whitaker win Best Actor for The Last King of Scotland. Could he get back in the race after almost 15 years of movies like State of Play?
-Raya and the Last Dragon: This year, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ bet for the Oscars is a fantasy tale set in a mysterious realm called Kumandra, where a warrior named Raya searches for the last dragon in the world. And that dragon has the voice of Awkwafina. Even though they missed out last Oscars when Frozen II got the cold shoulder by the Academy in Best Animated Feature, this premise looks interesting enough to merit a chance. One more thing: between last year’s Abominable, Over the Moon and this movie, there’s a clear connection of animated movies trying to appeal to Chinese sensibilities (and that sweet box office).
-Rebecca: It’s wild to think that the only time that Alfred Hitchcock made a film that won the Oscar for Best Picture was with 1940’s adaptation of Daphne du Maurier’s psychological thriller novel, more muted and conventional than his more known classics. Now, Ben Wheatley and Netflix are giving the Gothic story a new spin, with Lily James playing the newly married young woman who finds herself battling the shadow of her husband's (Armie Hammer) dead first wife, the mysterious Rebecca. The story is a classic, and we have to see how much weird Wheatley stuff is in the mix.
-Red, White and Water: Between 2011 and 2014, Jennifer Lawrence was everywhere and people loved it. She was America’s sweetheart, the Oscar winner, Katniss Everdeen. But then, everything kinda fell. Those X-Men movies got worse and she looked tired of being in them, her anecdotes got less charming and more pandering to some, she took respectable risks that didn’t pay off with Red Sparrow and Mother!, and some people didn’t like that she said that it wasn’t nice to share private photos of her online. Now, she looks to get back to the Oscar race with a small project funded by A24 and directed by Lila Neugebauer in her film debut, about a soldier who comes back to the US after suffering a traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan. Also, Brian Tyree Henry is in this, and it would be amazing if he got nominated for something.
-Respect: You know what’s a surefire way to get Academy voters’ attention? Play a real singer! Rami Malek took a win last year for playing Freddie Mercury, Renee Zellweger just won the gold after portraying Judy Garland, and now Jennifer Hudson wants more Oscar love. Almost 15 years after taking Best Supporting Actress for her role in Dreamgirls, Hudson will try to get more by playing soul legend Aretha Franklin, in a biopic directed by first timer Liesl Tommy that practically screams “give me the gold”. How am I so sure? Well, see the teaser that they released in December (for a movie that opens in October), and tell me. It will work out better for Hudson than Cats, that’s for sure.
-Soul: Unless they really disappoint (I’m looking at you, The Good Dinosaur, Cars 2 and Cars 3), you can’t have the Oscars without inviting Pixar to the party. This year, they have two projects in the hopes of success. While in a few weeks we’ll see what happens with the fantasy family road trip of Onward, the studio’s biggest bet of the year clearly is the next existential animation written and directed by Pete Docter, who brought Oscar gold to his home with Up and Inside Out. The movie, which centers on a teacher (voice of Jamie Foxx) who dreams of becoming a jazz musician and, just as he’s about to get his big break, ends up getting into an accident that separates his soul from his body, had a promising first trailer, and it also promises a score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, as well as new songs by Jon Batiste. The only downside so far for the marketing was the fact that the trailer reveal led people to notice a suspicious trend involving black characters when they lead an animated movie.
-Tenet: When Leonardo DiCaprio finally touched his Academy Award, an alarm went off in the mind of a portion of Internet users, who have made their next crusade to give themselves to the cause of getting Christopher Nolan some Oscar love. And his next blank check, an action thriller involving espionage and time travel, could pull off the same intersection of popcorn and prestige that made Inception both a box office hit and a critically acclaimed Oscar nominee. It helps to have a cast of impressive names like John David Washington, Elizabeth Debicki and Robert Pattinson, as well as a crew that includes Ludwig Goransson and Hoyte van Hoytema. In other words, if this becomes a hit, this could go for a huge number of nominations.
-The Devil All the Time: As you may have noticed by now, Netflix is leading the charge in possible Oscar projects. Another buzzy movie that comes from them is the new psychological thriller by Antonio Campos, a filmmaker known for delivering small and intimate but yet intense and terrifying dramas like Simon Killer and Christine. Using the novel by Donald Ray Pollock, Campos will follow non-linearly a cast of characters in Ohio between the end of World War II and the beginning of the Vietnam War, with the help of an interesting cast that includes Tom Holland, Sebastian Stan, Robert Pattinson, Mia Wasikowska, Eliza Scanlen, Bill Skarsgard, Jason Clarke and Riley Keough.
-The Eyes of Tammy Faye: After being known as a sketch comedy goofball because of The State, Wet Hot American Summer and Stella, Michael Showalter reinvented himself as a director of small and human dramedies like Hello, My Name is Doris and The Big Sick. For his next project, he’s gonna mix a little bit of both worlds, because he has before him the story of the televangelists Tammy Faye Bakker (Jessica Chastain, who has been really trying to recapture her early ‘10 awards run to no avail) and Jim Bakker (Andrew Garfield, who was previously nominated for Hacksaw Ridge, instead of Silence, because why). With a real life tale that involves Christian theme parks, fraud and conspiracies, this is the kind of loud small movie that Searchlight loves to parade around, especially as an actors showcase (Jojo Rabbit being the most recent example). The first image looks terrifying, by the way.
-The Father: It’s weird to be in the middle of February and say that there’s already a frontrunner for the Best Actor race at the next Oscars. After its premiere in Sundance a couple of weeks ago, every prognosticator pointed in the direction of Anthony Hopkins (recently nominated for Best Supporting Actor in The Two Popes), who delivers a harrowing portrayal of an old man grappling with his age as he develops dementia, causing pain to his beleaguered daughter (recent winner Olivia Colman, who also got praised). With reviews calling it a British answer to Amour (in other words: it’s a hard watch), Florian Zeller’s adaptation of his acclaimed play not only benefits from having Hopkins and Colman together as a selling point, because it was acquired by Sony Pictures Classics, a distributor with experience in getting Academy voters to watch adult movies with heavy themes. If you don’t believe me, watch how they got Julianne Moore a win for Still Alice, as well as recent nominations for Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Glenn Close for The Wife, and Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory. They know the game, and they are going to hit hard for Hopkins and Colman.
-The French Dispatch: If you saw the trailer, we don’t need to dwell too much on the reasons. On the one hand, we have the style of Wes Anderson, a filmmaker who has become a name in both the critics circle and the casual viewer, with his last two movies (The Grand Budapest Hotel and Isle of Dogs) earning several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture for the one with Gustave H. Then, we have a long cast that goes from the director’s regulars like Bill Murray to new stars like Timothee Chalamet, and also includes people like Benicio del Toro. The only thing that could endanger the Oscar chances for this is that the story, an anthology set around a period comedy with an European riff on The New Yorker, will alienate the average Academy member.
-The Humans: There’s the prestige of a play, and then there’s the prestige of a Tony-winning play. Playwright Stephen Karam now gets to jump to the director’s chair to take his acclaimed 2016 one-act story to the big screen, and A24 is cutting the check. Telling the story of a family that gets together on Thanksgiving to commiserate about life, this adaptation will be led by original performer Jayne Houdyshell (who also won a Tony for her stage performance), who’ll be surrounded by Richard Jenkins, Beanie Feldstein, Amy Schumer, Steven Yeun and June Squibb. If it avoids getting too claustrophobic or stagey for the cinema, it will be a good contender.
-The Last Duel: Always speedy, Ridley Scott is working on his next possible trip to the Oscars. This time, it’s the telling of a true story in 14th-century France, where a knight (Matt Damon) accuses his former friend (Adam Driver) of raping his wife (Jodie Comer), with the verdict being determined by the titular duel. It’s a juicy story, but there was some concern when it seemed that the script was only being written by Damon and Ben Affleck (who’ll also appear in the film). A rape story written by them after the Weinstein revelations… not the best look. But then, it was revealed that they were writing the screenplay with indie figure Nicole Holofcener, who last year was nominated for an Oscar for her script for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Let’s hope that the story is told in a gripping but not exploitative way, and that it doesn’t reduce the role of Comer (who deserves more than some of the movie roles that she’s getting after Killing Eve) to a Hollywood stereotype.
-The Power of the Dog: We have to talk about the queen of the indie world, we have to talk about Jane Campion. More than a decade after her last movie, Bright Star, the Oscar and Palme d’Or winner for The Piano returns with a non-TV project (see Top of the Lake, people) thanks to Netflix, with a period drama centered around a family dispute between a pair of wealthy brothers in Montana, Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Burbank (Jesse Plemons), after the latter one marries a local widow (Kirsten Dunst). According to the synopsis, “a shocked and angry Phil wages a sadistic, relentless war to destroy her entirely using her effeminate son Peter as a pawn”. Can’t wait to see what that means.
-The Prom: Remember the Ryan Murphy blank check deal with Netflix that I mentioned earlier? Well, another of the projects in the first batch of announcements for the deal is a musical that he’ll direct, adapting the Tony-nominated show about a group of Broadway losers (now played by the one and only Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman, Andrew Rannells and, uh, James Corden, for some reason) who try to find a viral story to get back in the spotlight, and end up going to a town in Indiana to help a lesbian high school student who has been banned from bringing her girlfriend to the prom. The show has been considered a fun and heartwarming tale of acceptance, so the movie could be an easy pick for an average Academy voter who doesn’t look too hard (and you know that the Golden Globes will nominate the shirt out of this). It’s funny how this comes out the same year than Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, and then it’s not funny realizing that Film Twitter will pit the two movies against each other.
-The Trial of the Chicago 7: After getting a taste of the director’s taste with Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin wants more. For his second movie, he’s tackling one of his specialties: a courtroom drama. And this one is a period movie centered around the trial on countercultural activists in the late ‘60s, which immediately attracts a campaign of how “important” this movie is today’s culture. To add the final blow, we have a cast that includes Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Jeremy Strong, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Frank Langella, William Hurt, Michael Keaton and Mark Rylance. If Sorkin can contain himself from going over the top (and with that cast, it would be so easy to surrender to bouts of screaming and winding speeches), this could be one of the top contenders.
-Those Who Wish Me Dead: Having made a good splash in the directorial waters with Wind River, Taylor Sheridan (also known for writing the Sicario movies, the Oscar-nominated Hell or High Water or that Yellowstone show that your uncle raves about on Facebook) returns with yet another modern Western. For this thriller based on the Michael Koryta novel, Angelina Jolie stars as a survival expert in the Montana wilderness who is tasked with protecting a teenager who witnessed a murder, while assassins are pursuing him and a wildfire grows closer.
-Untitled David O. Russell Project: Following the mop epic Joy, that came and went in theaters but still netted a Best Actress nomination for Jennifer Lawrence, the angriest director in Hollywood took a bit of a break (it didn’t help that he tried to do a really expensive show with Amazon starring Robert De Niro and Julianne Moore that fell apart when the Weinstein exposes sank everything). Now, he’s quickly putting together his return to the days of Oscar love that came with stuff like The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle, with a new movie that is set to star Christian Bale, Margot Robbie and Michael B. Jordan. Even though we don’t know many details (some people are saying the movie is called Amsterdam) except for the fact the movie hasn’t started shooting yet, David is a quick guy, so he’ll get it ready for the fall festival circuit. If there’s one thing that David O. Russell knows (apart from avoid getting cancelled for abusing people like Lily Tomlin, Amy Adams and his niece), it’s to make loud actor showcases.
-Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project: When Bird Box became one of the biggest hits on Netflix history, the streamer decided to keep itself in the Sandra Bullock business. Sandy’s next project for Ted Sarandos is a drama where she plays a woman who is released from prison after serving time for a violent crime, and re-enters a society that refuses to forgive her past. To get redemption, she searches her younger sister she was forced to leave behind. With the direction of Fingscheidt, who comes from an acclaimed directorial debut with Systemsprenger (Germany’s submission to the last Academy Awards), and a cast that also includes Viola Davis, Vincent D’Onofrio and Jon Bernthal, this will also hopefully try its luck later this year.
-Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project: We don’t know if this movie will be ready for the end of the year (although last time, he managed to sneak Phantom Thread under the buzzer and earn several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture), but PTA is apparently gonna start to shoot it soon, with the backing of Focus Features. After several movies with prestige locations and intricate production design, Film Twitter’s Holy Spirit will go back to the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s, to tell the story of a high school student who is also a successful child actor.
-Stillwater: Tom McCarthy’s recent career is certainly puzzling. After delivering the weird lows of The Cobbler, he bounced back with the Best Picture winner that was Spotlight. And following that, he… helped produce the 13 Reasons Why series. And following that… he made Timmy Failure: Mistakes Were Made, a Disney+ original movie. Now, he’s back to the award race with a drama starring Matt Damon, who plays a father who rushes from Oklahoma to France to help his daughter (Abigail Breslin), who is in prison after being suspected for a murder she claims she didn’t commit.
-West Side Story: To close things, we have to see one of the possible big contenders of the season, Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the iconic musical that translates Romeo and Juliet to the context of a street gang war in 1950s New York. While the decision to adapt again something that has been a classic both in Broadway and in movie theaters almost 60 years ago is a challenge, the idea of Spielberg doing a musical closer to the stage version with Tony Kushner as the writer is too tempting for the average Academy voter, who is already saving a spot in major categories in case Steven nails it in December. However, there’s two question marks. First, how well will Ansel Elgort and newcomer Rachel Zegler stand out in the roles of Tony and Maria? And second, will In the Heights steal some of the thunder of this movie by being, you know, more modern?
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[OC] I put the 19 Strongest Premier League Teams in History and Derby County's 2007-08 side in the same League together and simulated 10,000 seasons, these were the results.

Introduction

Have you ever wondered what would happen if you took the great sides from yester-year and put them in the same league together? UEFA have been trying to do that recently with the much reviled UEFA Super LeagueTM and since it’s looking like that won’t happen I thought I’d simulate something similar but within the comfort of my home county: the EPL. What would happen if I put the 19 most dominant teams in EPL history into one league and simulated many seasons? Who would get the most points? Who would win the most seasons? Let's find out!

The Teams

The nineteen best teams in Premier League history by points totals according to the transfermarkt website are:
For fun, I decided to complete the league with the infamous Derby County 2007-08 side that managed to accumulate just 11 points in an entire season, which is the record lowest points tally to this day. Would they be able to beat any of the monster teams listed above over a simulated season?

Methodology

(Skip to the Results section if you want to avoid reading the Mathsy stuff.)
A season in a 20-team league is composed of 380 matches, each of which is made up of a home team and an away team. The fundamental assumption I will be making is that the number of goals scored by a team follows a Poisson distribution with mean dependent on the teams’ attacking strength and the oppositions’ defensive strength. This is a reasonable assumption since the Poisson distribution is typically skewed towards lower numbers when the mean is small (and football is a low-scoring game). However it is not perfect – for example the occurrence of goals in a match is not independent from when the last goal occurred, also a goal being scored is a rare event in a football match and so you will run into sample size issues. A better compromise would be to use a shot-based metric like xG since shots are much more frequent events, though xG statistics were not available for some of the older teams in this list so that had to be abandoned. Since this is just for fun I decided not to look too far for the perfect model and stuck with what I had, which was simple to code.
The Home Field Advantage is a well-established phenomenon in football and so for each of the 20 teams I want to look at how they performed at home and away, treating each separately. Therefore for each team I need to find out four things: their home attack, home defence, away attack and away defence. To do this I need to look at the goal-scoring records for the 20 teams in their respective seasons:
Let’s consider Manchester City 2018-19 as an example.
Repeating this for all the other teams in the league home and away will give us the numbers needed to find the Poisson mean for both teams in a match. Let’s have a look at an example to see how these numbers are used to predict a match outcome:
Manchester City 2018-19 vs. Derby County 2007-08
The mean number of goals I expect Man City to score in this match is given by the formula:
MCI2018-19 home attack * DER2007-08 away defense = 3.000 * 1.583 = 4.749.
Similarly the mean number of goals I expect Derby to score in this match is given by:
DER2007-08 away attack * MCI2018-19 home defense = 0.421 * 0.533 = 0.224
So the expected scoreline in this match will be a 4.749 – 0.224 win in favour of Man City, i.e. roughly 5-0 on average. This is repeated for the remaining 379 fixtures in the season and from there a simulated table can be conjured up. Bear in mind that the goals scored in each match are all random and vulnerable to the variance of the Poisson distribution. Man City are expected to score 4.749 goals in the match against Derby but according to the Poisson distribution have a 0.86% chance of scoring zero goals! This could happen in our simulated season but it wouldn’t be representative of Man City’s strength as a whole. To counter this variance I used a Monte Carlo Method by simulating 10,000 seasons in R (I will spare you my inefficient code, though outputs are given at the bottom) to answer interesting questions such as:

Results

The Average Table (over 10,000 seasons)

Avg Pos. Team Pld. W D L GF GA GD Pts.
4.3 Manchester City 2018-19 38 18.7 9.8 9.5 60.7 35.8 +24.9 65.8
4.5 Chelsea 2004-05 38 17.9 11.7 8.4 47.0 25.6 +21.4 65.4
4.9 Manchester City 2017-18 38 18.5 9.0 10.5 67.1 43.0 +24.1 64.5
5.2 Liverpool 2018-19 38 17.9 10.0 10.1 56.7 35.2 +21.5 63.8
7.0 Manchester United 2007-08 38 16.7 10.2 11.1 51.0 36.4 +14.6 60.3
7.2 Tottenham 2016-17 38 16.7 9.8 11.5 55.0 40.5 +14.5 59.9
7.8 Manchester City 2011-12 38 16.5 9.2 12.2 58.8 44.6 +14.2 58.9
8.3 Chelsea 2009-10 38 16.3 8.7 12.9 64.2 49.9 +14.3 57.8
10.4 Chelsea 2005-06 38 14.6 10.5 12.9 45.5 38.7 +6.8 54.3
10.4 Manchester City 2013-14 38 15.4 8.0 14.5 63.4 57.6 +5.8 54.3
11.0 Manchester United 2011-12 38 14.6 9.4 14.0 56.1 50.4 +5.7 53.2
11.3 Manchester United 2006-07 38 14.4 9.6 14.0 52.5 47.9 +4.6 52.7
11.5 Arsenal 2003-04 38 14.0 10.5 13.5 46.5 42.4 +4.1 52.5
12.5 Chelsea 2016-17 38 13.8 9.4 14.9 53.2 50.9 +2.3 50.7
12.9 Manchester United 2008-09 38 13.1 10.7 14.2 42.9 42.1 +0.8 50.0
14.7 Chelsea 2014-15 38 12.4 9.5 16.1 46.5 54.9 -8.4 46.8
14.9 Arsenal 2001-02 38 12.3 9.2 16.5 49.6 57.6 -8.0 46.2
15.0 Manchester United 1999-2000 38 12.8 7.7 17.6 59.6 69.3 -9.7 46.0
16.1 Manchester United 2012-13 38 11.6 8.2 18.1 53.7 66.4 -12.7 43.2
20.0 Derby County 2007-08 38 0.4 1.5 36.1 11.4 152.3 -140.9 2.6
  • With the exception of Derby County it's quite clear that there is a lot of parity in this league with only 23 points separating 1st from 19th!
  • Man City 2017-18 and 2018-19 backed up their record point tallies by finishing highly most seasons in this league of heavyweights. Chelsea 2004-05's incredible defense let them keep up the pace with Guardiola's teams as they finished a very close 2nd in the Average Table.
  • Surprisingly Tottenham 2016-17 performed better on average than the champions of that season Chelsea in this league, due to their better goal scoring and conceding record for that year.
  • It went about as well as you could have expected for poor Derby County who finished bottom of the table in every single season (see the Crosstable below), scoring just 11.4 goals on average and conceding 152.3 over the 38-game season. On average they earned fewer than three points over a whole season!

Crosstable (Probability of finishing in xth position)

  • Despite having two points fewer than the Centurions, Man City 2018-19 won the super league more often than any other team, they were crowned champions 2,195 times.
  • Other regular winners were Chelsea 2004-05 (1,909 sims), Manchester City 2017-18 (1,781 sims) and Liverpool 2018-19 (1,420 sims) who complete the so-called "Big Four", sharing the league title 73.05% of the time between them.
  • Along with Derby County, Robin Van Persie's 2012-13 Manchester United were relegated the most often (4,602 sims), with the 1999-2000 team the third most likely to get the drop (3,111 sims).
  • With the exception of Derby County, every team won the super league in at least one season!

Fun Stats

Out of the 10,000 seasons (3.8 million games) these were some of the fun things I found:
Stat Details Simulation
Highest Scoring Game 17 Goals: Arsenal 2001-02 4-13 Tottenham 2016-17 5667
Biggest Home Win Chelsea 2009-10 17-0 Derby County 2007-08 3948
Biggest Away Win Derby County 2007-08 0-16 Manchester City 2011-12 4345
Most Points 95 - Manchester City 2018-19 9340
Most Goals Scored 101 - Manchester City 2017-18 4497
Most Goals Conceded 203 - Derby County 2007-08 1929
Highest Goal Difference +62 - Manchester City 2017-18 431
Lowest Goal Difference -194 - Derby County 2007-08 1929
Invincible Seasons 0 -
Zero-point seasons 1452 (all Derby County 2007-08) -
Best Derby County Season 16 points 9256
Total wins for Derby County 3571/380000 (0.94% winrate) -

A Season in the Life of Derby County 2007-08

Taken from the 10,000th simulation.
Derby's first fixture of the season was welcoming Jürgen Klopp's 2018-19 Liverpool to Pride Park. In the August sun the Reds ran out 0-3 winners over the Rams to leave them tied for bottom of the table after matchday one. The following week they were thumped 4-0 on their first visit to Stamford Bridge by 2005-06 Chelsea. This result would send Chelsea top of the table and also let Derby reach the dizzying heights of 19th place on Goal Difference after 2012-13 Man United were battered 6-1 by 2013-14 Man City.
Things were looking promising after an impressive 2-2 draw over the Cristiano Ronaldo inspired 2006-07 Man United nearly brought them out the relegation zone and had fans dreaming of survival. Unfortunately this would be a false hope as a 4-0 loss to 2014-15 Chelsea and a 2-5 home loss to 2008-09 Man United would follow. On their first visit to the Etihad they bowed out to 2011-12 Man City 3-1 before losing 0-5 at home against Conte's Chelsea. A 2-0 away defeat to fellow relegation candidates 2012-13 Man United saw the Rams already 9 points away from safety after just eight games, though they had scored more goals than the Arsenal Invincibles!
Current champions 2018-19 Man City were next to be welcomed at Pride Park, and Derby put up a good fight by only losing 0-2. Next week the cousins 2013-14 Man City were not so kind as they ran riot in a 7-0 thrashing. 5-0 and 1-8 losses were next dished out by 2007-08 Man United and 2009-10 Chelsea. Pochettino's 2016-17 Tottenham side also enjoyed a 5-0 win on Matchday 13. The lowest point of the season was a 0-8 home loss to 1999-00 Man United, their worst defeat of the year.The next home game was 2004-05 Chelsea, the team with the best defense in history. Derby County did themselves proud and managed to score twice but ultimately lost 2-7 in a crazy game.
The defense continued to ship goals over the Christmas period; a 5-0 loss to the Centurions, a 0-7 defeat to the Invincibles, a 4-1 loss to 2011-12 Man United and finally a 1-8 hammering to Ferguson's final United team saw Derby County firmly rooted to the bottom of the table at the halfway stage. Relegation was almost a certainty at this point, but all the other positions in the league were anything but certain!
The second half of the season was no better for the Rams, they lost every single game from here on out but did nearly keep a draw in a 1-0 away loss to 2016-17 Chelsea on Matchday 21. Finally on Matchday 28 the Arsenal Invincibles sealed their fate, defeating Derby 4-0 to ensure their relegation to the 10,001st simulation of the super league, it was still only February!
With Derby relegated, eyes turned to the title race. 2018-19 Man City had built up a healthy 9-point lead over 2007-08 Man United during the late winter months. That lead would be cut down to 6 points with 5 matches remaining as Tottenham's 2016-17 side proved to be surprise candidates off the back of five wins in a row.
Disaster would strike Man City as two draws and two losses in the next four matches saw Spurs leapfrog them into first place by a point going into the final day of the season. Not only was the title still up for grabs, there were five teams still fighting for two Champions League spots and any two of 2011-12 Man United, 2001-02 Arsenal and 2012-13 Man United would join Derby County in relegation!
Final Standings
On the final day of the season everything went 2016-17 Chelsea's way as they crushed 2011-12 Man United 4-0 to jump from 7th place into the top 4 on Goal Difference. All three of the relegation candidates losing meant the bottom of the table stayed as it was. 2018-19 Man City managed a 1-2 away victory over Man United's 2012-13 team but it was too little too late as a nervy 0-1 away win for Spurs over Mourinho's 2014-15 Chelsea side saw them clinch the title... for the 612th time!

Ballparking Derby's chances of winning the Super League

Even in Derby's best season they still finished 19 points adrift from 19th place, so it's clearly going to take a lot more than 10,000 simulations before we see them challenging for the league even once, but we can make some sort of an estimate. The mean number of points accumulated by the champions was 73.8, so you'd expect a team to win the league if they get ~25 wins or ~24 wins and a few draws. Let's say that in any season in which Derby get 25 wins they win the league just to be on the safe side.
Throughout the 10,000 simulations Derby won 0.94% of all matches, though we can presume most of these were against the weaker teams in the Super League and so their win rate against any particular team would probably be smaller, let's call it a round 0.9% for simplicity.
The probability that Derby will win 25 or more matches out of 38 with each match having a winning probability of 0.9% is 3.5 * 10-42 or 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000035%. In other words one would expect Derby County to win the Super League around once every 2.86 * 1041 simulations.
If every person on Earth ran a million simulations per second from now until the Sun swallows the Earth in 5 billion years they would still have only cooked up 1.21 * 1033 simulations, a factor of 236 million fewer than the expected amount needed to see a win. i.e. we would need a quarter of a billion Earth's doing the task if you want to see Derby County sitting as champions before the Sun turns them all into plasma!

Conclusions

This was all a good bit of fun and a nice coding challenge for an amateur like myself. As mentioned before there are several big problems with the assumptions above though the biggest of all is probably the premise itself. It's unreasonable to assume that the average strength of the Premier League has remained constant over time, some teams may have been in a "harder" league and have reduced points tallies than if they were present in other years, meaning that the stats are out of their favour. As it is we can only use what we have, I think the end results are in line with what one might expect: the brilliant defence of Chelsea's 2004-05 side cancels out the terrifying attack of the recent Manchester City teams and both sit atop the rest as the best of the best.

Output folder

You can download the output folder for the 10,000 seasons [here], it contains the following .csv files:
  • Teams: a folder containing the 20 teams in the league, each file has the 10,000 season end results for the respective team.
  • 10000th season final table and 10000th season fixtures and results: full-season data on the subsection above.
  • AvgTable: a raw copy of the Average Table.
  • biggestawaywin, biggesthomewin, highestscoring: the biggest home/away wins and highest scoring matches for each of the 10,000 seasons.
  • champions: A list of the 10,000 champions and the runners-up.
  • crosstable: A raw copy of the crosstable.
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The history of 410

A history of 410 (formerly known as OC), from Brixton, south London.
The Guide to UK Drill has a short paragraph about 410, but for people new to UK Drill (or not from the area) I thought you might find their actual backstory interesting. It's also a demonstration of how deep the UK Drill scene actually goes.

Context

The gang originated in the Myatts Field Estate in Brixton (SW9). Their territory also includes the nearby Vassall Road and Cowley blocks. The area borders with Camberwell (SE5), Kennington (SE11) and Walworth (SE17) on one side, and with Angell Town Estate in Brixton on the other.
OC stood for 'Organised Crime' or 'One Chance'. The Myatts Field Estate was nicknamed 'Baghdad', and Myatts Field associated with the colour green.


Early 2000s

OC (Myatts Field Estate) were linked with PDC (Peel Dem Crew, from the neighbouring Angell Town Estate). They were also cool with a set called SMS (South Man Syndicate). Some of the earliest music from OC was collaborations with SMS and PDC artists:

2006

In this era, prominent OC members included Lox, Boost, Troopz, Syikes, Kearz, Komoshen, Mad Mikes, Rampz, Sleeks, Ratty and many others. At this time their main beef was with Peckham (Shoot Instant/PYG) and Black Prince (BYM) from Kennington.
Death of Tiny Alien
In 2006, a young OC member named Tiny Alien was murdered by BYM (now known as Kuku) at Black Prince, Kennington. He went to Kennington on a glide but ended up getting stabbed to death. His death made further media headlines after photos emerged of him posing with guns. He was only 15 when he died, and the younger generation's biggest loss.

2007

Younger members of OC (Tiny OC) became more active in music and in general. They included Young Troopz, Looch, Lil Dread, Killa Buzz, Madantz, Fire Armz and others.

The birth of GAS Gang - minor OC v GAS feud
In this era, the gangs PDC (Angell Town Estate) and MZ (Somerleyton Estate) disbanded. The youngers from Angell Town and Somerleyton, led by Ard Adz, formed GAS Gang. At first there was resistance from Myatts Field, and a feud started between the GAS (Angell Town/Somerleyton) members and OC (Myatts Field) members. In the following track, OC members take shots at GAS:
GAS members responded taking shots at OC, over the same beat:
After this, the Brixton olders squashed the beef between Myatts Field (OC) and Angell Town/Somerleyton (GAS), and they became united again. Kinda important because they were facing a united enemy: the Peckham Boys (SN1, SI and PYG).
Political Peak and Ard Adz made light of the 'Hard Bars' diss tracks by merging their verses into a new track called 'Beef Eww'. It had a music video but that got taken down.
GAS Gang became an alliance between the young members from Myatts Field, Angell Town, Loughborough and Somerleyton - four major estates of Brixton. The younger members from Myatts Field repped both OC and GAS. Older members from Myatts Field just repped OC.
GAS was represented by the colour green (for Myatts Field) and purple (for Angell Town):


2008

In early 2008, a prominent OC member Ratty was shot dead on the Myatts Field Estate, and the murder is unsolved to this day:

Peckham 'Gunshot Riddim' v Brixton 'Bullet Riddim'
The war between Brixton (OC/GAS) and Peckham (SI/PYG) was fully cracking at this point. In early 2008, SI/PYG released one of their first music videos, filmed at the Peckham multi-storey car park:
That summer there were back-and-forth shootings between OC and SI members. In one incident, OC rode out on Walworth Road and caught Snap Capone and Butch (SI members) slipping. Snap and Butch ran into the Costcutter store and OC shot at them from the outside, but ended up killing a civilian. That made big media headlines. One thing that has to be mentioned was that OC were ruthless, they didn't care if civilians got hit if they were in the way. "Civilians move" mentality.
Not long afterwards, OC/GAS released a response track to Gunshot Riddim in which OC members mocked Snap and Butch for running in the above incident: "remember what we flew in Wooly Road" ... "had you running in the shop like you're buying suttin" ... "my dargs only run when they see the riot van" (etc). The video was filmed on the Myatts Field Estate:
Gunshot Riddim v Bullet Riddim was the start of the back-and-forth diss music videos between Brixton (OC/GAS) and Peckham (SI/PYG). Cracking on the streets and over Youtube. In my opinion, this era was the origins of what we now call the UK Drill scene.

Lox and Kearz release solo mixtapes
In 2008, Lox released the mixtape 'I Du Diz 4 Fun', and Kearz released 'King of the Fields'. Both mixtapes were full of shots towards Peckham. Lox's mixtape was notable for his remix of 'Talking The Hardest'.
In December 2007, Giggs (Peckham) released the 'Talking The Hardest' freestyle. In 2008, Lox responded over the same beat, dissing the Peckham Boys and especially the Shoot Instant set (which Snap Capone was a member of). This is a legendary music video in the Peckham v Brixton beef:

Sidebar
OC members popularised certain terms and phrases, which were associated with them through their music. The most famous examples were "cruddy" and "la la la", common catchphrases and adlibs in OC/GAS songs.

Brixton (OC/GAS) links up with Old Kent Road (OBY)
GAS leader Ard Adz continued to build alliances against Peckham, and linked up OC/GAS with OBY from Old Kent Road (SE1). Old Kent Road was nicknamed 'Brooklyn' and they were also beefing Peckham at the time. The most prominent OBY member in music was John Wayne. The first track they made together was 'Brooklyn to Baghdad' (Old Kent Road to Myatts Field):
Ard Adz went to prison soon afterwards. Young Troopz continued the music collaborations between Brixton and Old Kent Road, releasing two music videos with John Wayne in November 2008:
A month later, December 2008, PYG members released 'Coming Up'. In the second verse, M1 (aka Young Gunna D) disses OC: "you little pricks make me laugh when you're talking 'cruddy'...". Just a few weeks after Young Troopz dropped 'Cruddy'.

2009

Brixton v Peckham continues
It would be way too long to list all the disses and responses between Brixton (OC/GAS) and Peckham (SI/PYG) at this point, but the beef was cracking. It was popularly followed by young Londoners across the city, in the same way that UK Drill beef is now. Many of the music videos were uploaded to a YouTube channel called Southbitz (since been deleted), and each topped a million views. I'll just mention a few tracks, but there were many more:
PYG responded to 'OC/GAS - Bullet Riddim', in which OC mocked Peckham members for running during a shooting on Walworth Road. 16-year old Young Size (PYG) starts the track by stating: "You had two turners but never turned nothing, when I roll up on your block I'ma turn something off. He thinks he can try come Wooly Road and bark it off, but when I ride up on your block, little dickheads sliding off":
In early 2009, Giggs (Peckham) released a music video for 'Freestyle 09'. At this time Giggs was the hottest rapper in the game, and had recently won the first ever 'Best International Act' at the BET Hip Hop Awards. In April, OC/GAS released 'Ard 3Style' over the same beat. The song includes various disses towards Giggs and Peckham, and the music video was filmed on the Myatts Field Estate:
In May 2009, PYG members Stigs and Shocks dropped a music video for 'Rec A G' - one of the most legendary tracks to be dropped by youngers in the UK scene. The song doesn't mention anyone specifically, but it's clearly directed at Brixton. A month later, OC/GAS dropped a block freestyle in which they diss Peckham back. They reference lyrics in 'Rec A G' and mock Shocks' adlib "ya liar":
In summer 2009, PYG members Shocks and Young Size released 'Police & Thief', dissing Brixton. In response, OC/GAS released their reply, dissing Peckham over the same beat. It became one of the biggest tracks in the scene that summer, and the music video was filmed on Myatts Field Estate:
That year, Young Troopz was the most active OC member in music. By this point he was considered one of the best youngers in the UK scene. He was also one of the more respected young members on road.

'The Truth' CCTV video
In 2009, the police were investigating certain Peckham (PYG) members due to their war with Brixton (OC/GAS). Police sent the Peckham members' lawyers CCTV footage of Brixton and Peckham sliding on each others' territories, as proof that they had evidence of their involvement. A PYG associate took the footage, annotated it and uploaded it to Youtube.
Part 1 of the footage shows PYG members sliding to Angell Town Estate in Brixton at night. Part 2 shows OC/GAS members sliding to the Peckham frontline in broad daylight. The annotations were written to to make OC/GAS look bad. The original upload was in better quality and gained over a million views, but this is the only clip left on YouTube:
After PYG uploaded the footage, OC/GAS and their allies YRS (Young Roadside G's) released the video 'Ur Liars', accusing PYG of lying in the annotations and cooperating with the police for the CCTV footage:
PYG member Young Size filmed himself on the Myatts Field Estate to further disrespect OC/GAS:

2010

The new year saw Political Peak return to music, dropping the mixtape 'More Than Peak Vol.1'. Two music videos from the project, featuring OC members Syikes, Madantz and Killa Buzz:
Political Peak and Sneakbo became frequent collaborators, dropping a number of OC/GAS music videos through the year. Two of those tracks stood out as classics. 'Touch Ah Button' was one of the biggest songs in the scene, from the playgrounds to the clubs. In an old interview, Drake said that 'Touch Ah Button was his first introduction to the UK gang/rap scene, an interest he's maintained to the present day:

The fall of Young Troopz
Young Troopz wasn't active in music in 2010 because he and several other OC members were on trial for the 2008 murder on Walworth Road. In the end, Young Troopz was jailed for 5 and a half years for possessing the gun used in the murder. It was believed that Young Troopz talked during the investigation, so he was kicked out of OC and banned from Brixton. From this point onwards there's no mention of him by Brixton members in music or on social media.

Peckham civil war
2010 was also the year of the Peckham civil war: a major split within the Peckham Boys which reshaped territories and alliances within the Peckham, Camberwell and Walworth area. This pretty much brought an end to the Peckham v Brixton war.


2011-2012

Murders puts media spotlight on OC and Myatts Field
OC were once cool with ABM (M Block), a gang from nearby Stockwell. However, ABM had sided with TN1/86 (Tulse Hill) in their increasing beef with Brixton. Plus Brixton were linked with 031 (Wandsworth Road) who were ABM's main opps. These ties caused OC and ABM to fall out.
In March 2011, OC members Killa Buzz, Madantz and Kaz cycled from Myatts Field to Stockwell to score on ABM. Two members of ABM ran into the Stockwell Food and Wine store to hide, and OC shot into the store from the outside. The bullets hit the shop owner and his 5-year old niece Thusha Kamaleswaran, paralysing her. CCTV of the incident was released by the police, which was a big media story at the time. Killa Buzz was sentenced to minimum 17 years, Madantz and Kaz both got a minimum 14. This was only a few years after the Costcutter shooting in 2008 under similar circumstances, so a lot of scrutiny was put on OC:
In May 2011, a 16-year old OC member Nathan murdered a 15-year old boy named Temidayo Ogunneye on the Myatts Field Estate. Temidayo had gone to Myatts Field to retrieve a Blackberry that had been stolen by young OC members earlier that day, but got stabbed to death once on OC territory. Following his trial, Nathan was sentenced to a minimum of 14 years:

OC leaders leave gang life
A female pastor named Mimi Asher was living on the Myatts Field Estate. She opened her house to OC members, and over time helped many turn away from gang life:
Two outstanding members of OC, Lox (Karl Lokko) and Boost (Terroll Lewis), found Christianity and left gang life behind. They have both been open about their former lives:

In this period, younger OC members like Tiny Syikes became more active in music:

2013

OC change name to 410
The name OC had been tarnished by relentless media scrutiny, its main leaders had left road, and its beef with Peckham had died. It was like an old era had ended, and a new era was beginning.
Also Myatts Field Estate had been undergoing regeneration by this time, with the old blocks getting replaced by modern apartments. These changes were the inspiration for the new name of their gang. The Myatts Field Estate was being renamed as Oval Quarter, so members took (Oval Quarter) and flipped it to become 4/10. From now onwards, OC began to be known as 410 (four-ten).
Younger 410 members continued releasing music:

GAS Gang splits
In late 2013, a leading GAS member from Somerleyton Estate (5 Star) accused a leading GAS member from Angell Town Estate (Sneakbo) of snitching, and dropped a statement in this tweet. GAS Gang split as a result: the Angell Town faction formed 150, and the Somerleyton faction left as Siru/Siraq. The two blocks beef each other to this day. Myatts Fields (410) remained close with Angell Town (150), as they were before the GAS era.

2014

In May, 410 had their first Westwood crib session featuring the some of the more senior members Political Peak, Fire Armz, Syikes, Kearz, Troopz, Looch and VI:

Early UK Drill era
Alongside 150 and 67, the younger 410 members were pioneers of the early UK Drill sound. In June 2014, Baby Troopz (aka BT, the younger brother of Young Troopz) released his first solo video:
In September 2014, members BT, Tiny Syikes and Rendo released '4 Door Coming'. The song is considered a classic UK Drill track, and has since been referenced numerous times by other UK Drill artists:
410 ended the year with a 'No Hook' by BT, YS and Rendo, the first 'No Hook' in UK Drill. Rendo's verse was considered one of the best in the early UK Drill scene:

2015

410 started the year with an anthem including senior and younger members:

UK - Chicago Drill history made
In May 2015, Chicago drill artist THF TP used the '410 - 4 Door Coming' beat for his track 'THF TP - Bus Stop'. That's the first time a Drill beat from a UK song and producer was used by a Chicago drill artist. Bus Stop is considered a classic in the Chicago scene.

The rise of the duos
BT and Rendo continued releasing music together consistently, and became many people's favourite duo in UK Drill. Some of the more prominent releases that year:
AM and Young Rendo (aka Skengdo), part of a younger generation of 410 members, started releasing music together. They would develop into many people's favourite UK Drill duo's in time:

F Block mixtape
In October 2015, 410 released the F Block mixtape, a classic squad tape in UK Drill.

2016

410 started the year by dropping anthems.
The duo of BT and Rendo dropped 'Ten Toes', one of the most gassed tracks of the era:
The younger members Sparkz, Skengdo and AM started the year with 'Think Again'. The final verse by AM was very highly rated when it dropped:
410 also had their second Westwood Crib Session, featuring BT, Rendo, Tiny Syikes, VI, YS, Mo Squeeze, Troopz and Looch:
Overall 2016 was another productive year for 410 with its main rappers (BT, Rendo, AM and Skengdo) consistently dropping music. Some examples:

Tennessee
Around this time, 410 was mainly occupied by its long term war with Kennington. 410 (Myatts Field) and Harlem (Kennington Park) are rival sets located very close to each other. Several 410 and Harlem members were childhood friends, due to how close both areas are. However, gang loyalties turned those childhood friends into gang enemies.
'Tennessee' is a chicken shop on Brixton Road, located between 410 and Harlem territory. In 2016 an infamous stabbing took place at that Tennessee, with police releasing CCTV of the incident:
410 and Harlem both mention that chicken shop in their lyrics when dissing each other, to imply that they won't step beyond it into enemy territory:

2017

Golden era for 410
In January, 410's rivals Harlem dropped 'Harlem Spartans - Kennington Where It Started'. It's considered by many as one of the best UK Drill tracks of all time. A couple of weeks later, 410 dropped 'Crash', one of Skengdo & AM's most iconic tracks:
In February, Skengdo & AM followed it by dropping 'No Lotion', 'Foolishness' and a collaboration with 17 (Wandsworth Road):
In March, AM follow up with 'No Filter', in which he takes various shots at Harlem:
March also saw 410's third Westwood Crib Session, featuring Skengdo, AM, BT, Rendo, J1, Yamz (Young AM), Blackz and 3 Rounds. Constant shots taken at Harlem:
At this point the beef between 410 and the Harlem Spartans was the biggest storyline in UK Drill. Both gangs were dropping popular tracks and continually taking shots at each other. In the midst of this hype, Skengdo & AM dropped their iconic 'Mad About Bars' freestyle. At over 20 million views, it's the most watched video ever released by 410:
In summer, 410 filmed a 'Behind Barz' freestyle and a block cypher at the Cowley blocks, featuring Skengdo, AM, Rendo, Syikes and Blackz:
On the same day, 410 also filmed two music videos:

Return of Sparkz
In late 2017, Sparkz return to music dropping 'That's Funny', filmed in the Cowley blocks:
410 also had their fourth Westwood Crib Session, featuring younger members Jayslapit, Blackz, Young AM and Sparkz:

Skengdo & AM drop debut mixtape
Skengdo & AM finished the year by releasing their debut mixtape, '2 Bunny' and their debut 'Fire In The Booth' freestyle on BBC 1Xtra. This was accompanied with multiple video releases, including:

BT & Rendo release 'Boom Bow' mixtape
In 2017, BT & Rendo released the 'Boom Bow' mixtape. Unfortunately it's been removed from YouTube and all streaming sites (which is a shame, because it's one of the best mixtapes in drill). In February, BT dropped a video for the mixtape's intro track:
In summer, a video was released for track 6: '2 Man Step'. The modern background in the music video demonstrates how much regeneration has changed the Myatts Field area:
In the autumn a music video was dropped for track 16: 'CR4SH£RS'. It's the first appearance by Tiny Syikes since he returned from a brief stint in prison:
After Skengdo & AM's 'Mad About Bars' freestyle in April 2017, fans were demanding a freestyle involving BT, Rendo and Tiny Syikes. 410 ended the year by dropping it for Christmas:

2018

In January, 410 dropped a Radar Radio freestyle with Peckham's Zone 2. The freestyle is notable for the shots AM takes at Harlem Spartans and Moscow17. Those bars are later used in his track 'Attempted 1.0':

'WDYM'
In March 2018, Oboy (a member of Kennington's Kuku gang) released 'WDYM'. The track takes direct shots at 410 members including AM, Skengdo, Young AM, Blackz and Syikes:
410 members responded directly with 'Attempted 2.0' and their own 'WDYM', taking shots at Kuku and Harlem members:

The rise and fall of of JaySlapit
Young 410 member Jayslapit made his music entrance in 2017 with 'J.T.F.I' and the Westwood Crib Session alongside Young AM and Blackz. In 2018, JaySlapit raised his profile with more song releases and two acclaimed solo freestyles. JaySlapit's rise was halted after being imprisoned for 11 years on firearm and drugs charges:

Negative media spotlight on UK Drill affects 410
Moscow17 is a gang based on the Brandon Estate in Walworth (SE17). They are enemies of 410, and they border 410's territory. In 2018, two prominent Moscow members and drill rappers were murdered: 17-year old GB was shot dead May 2018, and 23 year-old Incognito was stabbed to death in August 2018.
Prominent 410 member Tiny Syikes was shot in Myatts Field in May 2018. Incidents like these put an intense media spotlight on the gang violence in the area, and wider events in London whipped up a media frenzy over UK Drill music:
In 2018, London's Metropolitan Police responded by increasingly censoring and banning UK Drill. This included deleting popular UK Drill videos and forcing new content to be censored. Skengdo & AM were hit with a gang injunction, banning them from performing 'gang-related' music at their December tour.

Skengdo & AM tours and new mixtape
Skengdo & AM were signed by the label Finesse Foreva (FF). In March and April they took part in their first tour, with three dates in Birmingham, Manchester and London:
In September, Skengdo & AM released their second mixtape, 'Greener On The Other Side'. The mixtape is notable for the track 'Pitbulls' featuring Chief Keef, a landmark UK-US drill collaboration:
The duo ended 2018 with a December tour, with five dates in Manchester, London, Bristol, Nottingham and Birmingham:

2019

Legal trouble for Skengdo & AM
In January 2019, Skengdo & AM were nearly sent to prison after violating their police gang injunction. During their December 2018 tour they performed material that had been banned by the police, so they were given suspended prison sentences:
In April 2019, Skengdo & AM had an interview with BBC Radio 1Xtra, in which they discussed their gang injunction and police censorship:

Skengdo & AM maintain consistency
Despite their January legal troubles, Skengdo & AM continued releasing music. The duo dropped two tracks early in the year:
In July, AM released a highly rated solo track:

BT, Rendo, Tiny Syikes and YS return to music
In 2019, legendary 410 duo BT & Rendo returned to music for the first time in over a year. They dropped 'Longtime' in February, referring to how long it's been since they last released material:
Tiny Syikes (now also known as TrapStack) also returned to music in 2019, for the first time since being shot in May 2018:
YS also returned to music in 2019 under the name SMoney. After releasing a solo track, this collaboration with Rendo was their first visual release together in four years:
Alongside the return of several older 410 members, younger members including Sparkz, Lil Rass, Young AM and Blackz kept up 410's relevance in 2019:

Skengdo & AM drop the 'Back Like We Never Left' mixtape
From August, Skengdo & AM started dropping material from their new mixtape. The young member JaySlapit had sent to prison for 11 years, so the duo released '3 JaySlapit' in his honour:
In September the duo released 'Crash x GBG', a collaboration with Angell Town artists M24 and Stickz, as well as the more mellow 'Tugg':
In October, the 'Back Like We Never Left' mixtape was released. Two more music videos from the project dropped:
Skengdo & AM finished the year by dropping a Daily Duppy freestyle on GRM Daily, and Skengdo's hotspot freestyle on Pacman TV:

2020

AM and Syikes started the year with individual Hotspot freestyles:
In January, a music video for 'No Love' was also released. The track is a collaboration with 17/TOG (Wandsworth Road) and was recorded before JaySlapit went to prison:


----------------------------------------------------

That's a brief history of 410. It could have been longer but that's more than enough 😂
For anyone wondering, my favourite 410 song from the early drill era is 4 Door Coming, and my favourite from the recent drill era is Trapping & Stacking.
submitted by KeezyLDN to ukdrill [link] [comments]

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