NBA Betting Trends | Sports Insights

Thursday MLB and NBA Playoff picks with betting trends

Thursday MLB and NBA Playoff picks with betting trends submitted by sharpsq to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Wednesday MLB, NBA and NHL playoff picks with betting trends

Wednesday MLB, NBA and NHL playoff picks with betting trends submitted by sharpsq to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Fantasy Baseball - Buy Low & Sell High Hitters/Pitchers - from CheatSheetPros!

BUY LOW & SELL HIGH Hitters & Pitchers from CheatSheetPros!
Before we dive into looking at the players I wanted to hit on the main stats we are going to focus on. Yes there are several you could compare but today we are going to use BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) and we are going to look at xFIP (this is an indicator of what a pitchers ERA “should be”) and their LOB% (Left on Base % - also known as strand rate). If I pitcher has an ERA that is far off from their xFIP we can tell if they are going to trend up or down. Also if a player has a BABIP that is really high or really low it is likely to normalize in the future and we can use that information to profit on those players or buy low on other players.
BUY LOW HITTERS:
Jesus Aguilar – Still holding a decent 11.1% walk rate with a high 22.2% strikeout rate his BABIP is one of the lowest at .173. This WILL come up in the future so he should be able to get back on track. For a guy that hit 35 bombs last night you can likely get him for nothing right now in a trade and sit on him!
Jose Ramirez – Holding a 10.3% walk rate, low 13.1% strikeout rate he has a BABIP that is only .179. He has started to heat up since Lindor came back into the lineup and he started swiping some bases so you better move fast if you are going to try to get him on the cheap. Jose Ramirez is a solid first round player that was sluggish out of the gate if you can get him BUY HIM NOW!
Joc Pederson – I’ve started to see him get dropped in some league which is shocking because he has started off hot. He has a 11.3% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate and his BABIP is only .185. If you see him dropped anywhere I would snatch him up and ride him!
Jesse Winker – I’m not going to spend much on him but his BABIP is .189. People were high on Winker coming into the year so if you were one then I would look at buying him on the cheap. I’m not a fan with his 8.2% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate but his BABIP will definitely come up.
Anthony Rizzo – His BABIP is at our threshold of .200, he also supports a low 16% strikeout rate and a nice 14.2% walk rate. If you can get him from the owner at a discount now is the time as the Cubs are sure to get hot this summer and you have to have a piece!
CONSIDER SELLING HIGH HITTERS:
Tim Anderson Walk rate of only 2.2%, strikeout rate is 18.9% and his BABIP is a whopping .462! This pains me to say this but if you can move him for a 1st or 2nd round pick to someone else in your league I’d consider it. I tried moving him for Lindor before he got back but the guy didn’t bite. Tim Anderson is red hot right now and one of the top SS in the game that is 5 tooling across the board. If you could move him and get a Jose Ramirez or package another player and get Lindor I’d jump on it. People go crazy for the “hot player”. I think he has a good year but he can’t keep up that BABIP number that is off the charts.
Elvis Andrus – 7.8% walk rate / 19.4% strikeout rate and a .429 BABIP. Don’t know what you could move Andrus for but if someone sends you an offer I’d consider it based on his BABIP numbers. Just wanted to put him in here because he is constantly discussed.
Christian Walker So the season long team that I’m crushing people with has Tim Anderson and Walker so this pains me to put these guys on here! Walker has a BABIP of .400 with a whopping 27.6% strikeout rate, eeekkkk! Guy is stealing bases and hitting HR and in a good spot. If you can “upgrade” let someone else ride his BABIP down and sit on that high strikeout %. (Note: I picked him up off FA so I’m likely sitting unless someone wants to pay the premium!)
Cody Bellinger Absolutely on fire right now, BABIP is .397 with a low 11.2% strikeout rate. If you can package Bellinger and another player go after YELICH! Bellinger will have a good year but if your team is lacking he is the perfect player to sell to get a couple solid players to fill in any holes you may have! If he keeps this up pitchers are going to stop throwing to him and just walking him!
BUY LOW PITCHERS: (I’m looking at ERA vs. xFIP along with some other stats to determine my buy low or sell high players.)
SONNY GRAY So before I posted this I sent a trade for Gray and he declined it, blah! Gray has a whopping 11.3 K9 rate with a low 6.1% BB rate. He has faced some tough teams and came out decent. He has a 3.65 ERA but his xFIP is a nice 2.68. He has also been allowing a .283 BABIP which is good and does hit either extreme.
JAMES PAXTON – Love this guy! I was all over him in my season long leagues and I think I own him in all of them. He has a 13.2 K9 rate, 7.1% BB rate and supports a solid 3.38 ERA and his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 2.93. His BABIP numbers allowed is a .355 so that is really high. That only means he will get better going forward and that number will come down. He has a strand rate of 73% which is in the middle of the pack.
G. COLE Whopping 13.4 K9 rate and a super low strand rate of 55% he has a 4.71 ERA. This is a little mis-leading and his xFIP indicates he should be closer to 2.59! That is a huge gap! He also has a low BB rate of 8.1% and BABIP of .299. He is going to get better as the year goes on and get stronger as a starting pitcher. If you can get someone to bite grab him now so you have him for the rest of the year and playoffs!
HIN-JIN RYU – You might be able to get him cheap as most people picked him up late in the draft or off the waiver wire. He has a microscopic 1.9% BB rate and a 10.9 K9 rate. He has a 2.96 ERA with a 2.24 xFIP number. His one red flag that came out is a 96.9% strand rate! Yikes!
CONSIDER SELLING HIGH PITCHERS:
SHANE GREENE – My word this guy was picked up in auctions for $2-$4 and he is crushing the saves category and putting up solid numbers. However if you can sell this guy then SELL – SELL – SELL! His allowed BABIP is only .138. That means his ass has been very lucky and he is going to get blasted SOON! His strand rate is a whopping 92.1% - that number is crazy high for a closer! His ERA on the surface is a whopping 1.38 and people are eating that up but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.49 pitcher. DET isn’t going to win that many games if you can move him and upgrade to a better closer who is struggling I would do it in a heartbeat!
Chris Paddack – I love this guy and he is fire right now! Take note thought his BABIP allowed is only a .138 and that is going to come up. His strand rate is 80.3% and on the surface he supports a 1.67 ERA. His xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.79 pitcher. If you can move him with another player go after COLE or one of these other studs!
Mike Minor – On fire this year he is allowing a low BABIP of .204 and has a 3.21 ERA on the surface. However his xFIP indicates that number should be closer to 4.95 and he has been “lucky” so far this year. Strand rate isn’t terrible around 78%. But if you can package him with another player and make an upgrade I’d feel good moving Minor.
Trevor Bauer – I’m sure people will lose their shit when they see him on the consider selling high. His BABIP is .222 which isn’t bad but it will definitely come up. His strand rate is 88% which is higher than average and he has a whopping 1.99 ERA on the surface. His xFIP indicates he is closer to 3.94 and that 1.99 has been on the side of “lucky”. If I could move Bauer and get Cole or Paxton/Gray I’d jump all over it.
FREE PREMIUM DFS SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our NBA Premium Cheatsheets & Excel Lineup Optimizers for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}
FREE FLICK GROUP CHAT -> https://flickchat.page.link/VnJBhbF75TtAjN1J8
< Join us on flick as it is a free app for your phone so we can chat about daily fantasy sports, season long sports and sport betting picks.>
Article Link: https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/blog/mlb-buy-low-sell-high-hitters-pitchers-through-april
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to fantasybaseball [link] [comments]

MercenaryBets is here. NBA PICKS OF THE DAY. PORTLAND vs. GOLDEN STATE 5/14/19 LET'S BEAT THE BOOKIE

Sup all.
I been posting my picks with some analysis. I've been doing well. Historically and from my betting experiences, betting in the NBA Playoffs is A LOT more difficult than regular season. A lot of variance in the playoffs. With that said, let's see beat the bookie.

This is MercenaryBet's NBA Picks of the Day. Please follow me if interested for more picks: https://mobile.twitter.com/mercenarybets . I have given people A LOT more winning picks on Twitter that maybe some people here can attest too. I recently had major success and bought a new car by sports betting. I decided to get more involved, looked up this reddit page, and want to help other people profit. I will be posting my picks on Twitter with pictures of my winning tickets actually bought at a casino. Please follow me on twitter!

NBA PICKS OF THE DAY
GSW FIRST HALF -4.5 BET IT
I like WARRIORS FG -7.5 but like first half better.

PORTLAND BLAZERS VS. GOLDEN STATE

Curry scores his highest average against and Western Conference opponent vs. the Portland Blazers with 27.5 PPG, and the third highest scoring average against any team behind the Wizards and the Raptors. Over 3 seasons, the Warriors are 30-4 straight up and 22-12 ATS WITHOUT Kevin Durant in the lineup, winning on average by 12.3 points per game. Warriors is on REST. Portland is traveling to the hostile ORACLE ARENA after a brutal tiring game 7. Portland has to be fatigued after a game 7 with Denver where that game was tightly contested with a lot of defense. Favorites of 6 or more points in the playoffs are 53-38 (58.2%) ATS. I like the Warriors in this spot and at home against a tired Portland. I think Golden State starts off strong at home, is rested, and covers the spread in the first half. REMEMBER Portland was down by A LOT in the first half vs. Denver. I think this trend continues against the best team in the NBA rested. TAKE GSW -4.5 FIRST HALF

Game TOTAL
While this is not an "official" pick, I'll try to give some insight. I am going to avoid the game total. I like the OVER. There is A LOT of action on the OVER. The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings between POR vs. GSW. I think Golden State's momentum and ball movement pushes this game past the OVER versus a tired Portland team. IF YOU BET THE TOTAL DO NOT PARLAY IT HERE, RISKY VARIANCE.

Please follow me if interested for more picks: https://mobile.twitter.com/mercenarybets

I HAVE SOME REALLY GOOD MLB PICKS FOR TONIGHT. MESSAGE ME ON TWITTER IF YOU WANT THEM
Thanks!
submitted by _Hubble to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Fantasy Baseball - Buy Low & Sell High Hitters/Pitchers - from CheatSheetPros!

BUY LOW & SELL HIGH Hitters & Pitchers from CheatSheetPros!
Before we dive into looking at the players I wanted to hit on the main stats we are going to focus on. Yes there are several you could compare but today we are going to use BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) and we are going to look at xFIP (this is an indicator of what a pitchers ERA “should be”) and their LOB% (Left on Base % - also known as strand rate). If I pitcher has an ERA that is far off from their xFIP we can tell if they are going to trend up or down. Also if a player has a BABIP that is really high or really low it is likely to normalize in the future and we can use that information to profit on those players or buy low on other players.
BUY LOW HITTERS:
Jesus Aguilar – Still holding a decent 11.1% walk rate with a high 22.2% strikeout rate his BABIP is one of the lowest at .173. This WILL come up in the future so he should be able to get back on track. For a guy that hit 35 bombs last night you can likely get him for nothing right now in a trade and sit on him!
Jose Ramirez – Holding a 10.3% walk rate, low 13.1% strikeout rate he has a BABIP that is only .179. He has started to heat up since Lindor came back into the lineup and he started swiping some bases so you better move fast if you are going to try to get him on the cheap. Jose Ramirez is a solid first round player that was sluggish out of the gate if you can get him BUY HIM NOW!
Joc Pederson – I’ve started to see him get dropped in some league which is shocking because he has started off hot. He has a 11.3% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate and his BABIP is only .185. If you see him dropped anywhere I would snatch him up and ride him!
Jesse Winker – I’m not going to spend much on him but his BABIP is .189. People were high on Winker coming into the year so if you were one then I would look at buying him on the cheap. I’m not a fan with his 8.2% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate but his BABIP will definitely come up.
Anthony Rizzo – His BABIP is at our threshold of .200, he also supports a low 16% strikeout rate and a nice 14.2% walk rate. If you can get him from the owner at a discount now is the time as the Cubs are sure to get hot this summer and you have to have a piece!
CONSIDER SELLING HIGH HITTERS:
Tim Anderson Walk rate of only 2.2%, strikeout rate is 18.9% and his BABIP is a whopping .462! This pains me to say this but if you can move him for a 1st or 2nd round pick to someone else in your league I’d consider it. I tried moving him for Lindor before he got back but the guy didn’t bite. Tim Anderson is red hot right now and one of the top SS in the game that is 5 tooling across the board. If you could move him and get a Jose Ramirez or package another player and get Lindor I’d jump on it. People go crazy for the “hot player”. I think he has a good year but he can’t keep up that BABIP number that is off the charts.
Elvis Andrus – 7.8% walk rate / 19.4% strikeout rate and a .429 BABIP. Don’t know what you could move Andrus for but if someone sends you an offer I’d consider it based on his BABIP numbers. Just wanted to put him in here because he is constantly discussed.
Christian Walker So the season long team that I’m crushing people with has Tim Anderson and Walker so this pains me to put these guys on here! Walker has a BABIP of .400 with a whopping 27.6% strikeout rate, eeekkkk! Guy is stealing bases and hitting HR and in a good spot. If you can “upgrade” let someone else ride his BABIP down and sit on that high strikeout %. (Note: I picked him up off FA so I’m likely sitting unless someone wants to pay the premium!)
Cody Bellinger Absolutely on fire right now, BABIP is .397 with a low 11.2% strikeout rate. If you can package Bellinger and another player go after YELICH! Bellinger will have a good year but if your team is lacking he is the perfect player to sell to get a couple solid players to fill in any holes you may have! If he keeps this up pitchers are going to stop throwing to him and just walking him!
BUY LOW PITCHERS: (I’m looking at ERA vs. xFIP along with some other stats to determine my buy low or sell high players.)
SONNY GRAY So before I posted this I sent a trade for Gray and he declined it, blah! Gray has a whopping 11.3 K9 rate with a low 6.1% BB rate. He has faced some tough teams and came out decent. He has a 3.65 ERA but his xFIP is a nice 2.68. He has also been allowing a .283 BABIP which is good and does hit either extreme.
JAMES PAXTON – Love this guy! I was all over him in my season long leagues and I think I own him in all of them. He has a 13.2 K9 rate, 7.1% BB rate and supports a solid 3.38 ERA and his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 2.93. His BABIP numbers allowed is a .355 so that is really high. That only means he will get better going forward and that number will come down. He has a strand rate of 73% which is in the middle of the pack.
G. COLE Whopping 13.4 K9 rate and a super low strand rate of 55% he has a 4.71 ERA. This is a little mis-leading and his xFIP indicates he should be closer to 2.59! That is a huge gap! He also has a low BB rate of 8.1% and BABIP of .299. He is going to get better as the year goes on and get stronger as a starting pitcher. If you can get someone to bite grab him now so you have him for the rest of the year and playoffs!
HIN-JIN RYU – You might be able to get him cheap as most people picked him up late in the draft or off the waiver wire. He has a microscopic 1.9% BB rate and a 10.9 K9 rate. He has a 2.96 ERA with a 2.24 xFIP number. His one red flag that came out is a 96.9% strand rate! Yikes!
CONSIDER SELLING HIGH PITCHERS:
SHANE GREENE – My word this guy was picked up in auctions for $2-$4 and he is crushing the saves category and putting up solid numbers. However if you can sell this guy then SELL – SELL – SELL! His allowed BABIP is only .138. That means his ass has been very lucky and he is going to get blasted SOON! His strand rate is a whopping 92.1% - that number is crazy high for a closer! His ERA on the surface is a whopping 1.38 and people are eating that up but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.49 pitcher. DET isn’t going to win that many games if you can move him and upgrade to a better closer who is struggling I would do it in a heartbeat!
Chris Paddack – I love this guy and he is fire right now! Take note thought his BABIP allowed is only a .138 and that is going to come up. His strand rate is 80.3% and on the surface he supports a 1.67 ERA. His xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.79 pitcher. If you can move him with another player go after COLE or one of these other studs!
Mike Minor – On fire this year he is allowing a low BABIP of .204 and has a 3.21 ERA on the surface. However his xFIP indicates that number should be closer to 4.95 and he has been “lucky” so far this year. Strand rate isn’t terrible around 78%. But if you can package him with another player and make an upgrade I’d feel good moving Minor.
Trevor Bauer – I’m sure people will lose their shit when they see him on the consider selling high. His BABIP is .222 which isn’t bad but it will definitely come up. His strand rate is 88% which is higher than average and he has a whopping 1.99 ERA on the surface. His xFIP indicates he is closer to 3.94 and that 1.99 has been on the side of “lucky”. If I could move Bauer and get Cole or Paxton/Gray I’d jump all over it.
FREE PREMIUM DFS SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our NBA Premium Cheatsheets & Excel Lineup Optimizers for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}
FREE FLICK GROUP CHAT -> https://flickchat.page.link/VnJBhbF75TtAjN1J8
< Join us on flick as it is a free app for your phone so we can chat about daily fantasy sports, season long sports and sport betting picks.>
Article Link: https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/blog/mlb-buy-low-sell-high-hitters-pitchers-through-april
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to dfsports [link] [comments]

How Many Dunks Are A Lot? [OC]

Note: If you don't have Reddit Enhancement Suite running, or are on mobile, you may find more success reading this piece using this mirror from Google Docs. The superscript numbers are footnotes, which contain references and/or additional information about a topic.
How Many Dunks Are A Lot?
On Thursday night, LeBron James dunked the ball 8 times in a game. Any casual fan would be able to tell you that 8 dunks is a lot of dunks. There is little dispute that LeBron is one of the greatest NBA players (and athletes) of all time, and even for him, 8 dunks is a lot. Cleveland ended up losing by four to the Detroit Pistons, but LeBron attacked the basket and finished above the rim at will, including 6 times in the half court. As Greg Kelser1 astutely observed, it is very rare that any non-center gets 3 or more dunks in the halfcourt, simply because it is so difficult to get a good defense to move far enough away from the rim, especially when the player in question attracts the attention of the defensive scheme. After the game ended and the commentators started commentating, it became apparent that 8 dunks in a game tied LeBron's career high, and was his most in the last 8 years. In other words, it was really special. But how special, you might ask?
I'll spare the suspense. It's almost certainly the case that Wilt has the most dunks in an NBA game, if not during his 100 point game then in some other game where he dunked on scores of hapless short white dudes (and Bill Russell) for 48+ minutes. If we limit ourselves to the modern NBA, and more specifically the modern NBA where there was enough accessible game footage to answer this question, we find ourselves somewhere around the turn of the millennium. Not coincidentally, the good people at Basketball Reference have been tallying up NBA dunks since the 2000/2001 season, which gives us a good statistical baseline. Because the numbers are only easily accessible from the 2000/2001 NBA season onwards, we are going to limit our discussion to that time frame. Sorry Wilt, Bill, Kareem, Charles, Hakeem, and Orlando Shaq - maybe you should have negotiated for better TV deals2.
In 2001, when the powers that be decided to start recording dunks as a separate statistic, the specter of Prime-Shaq loomed large over the landscape of the NBA. The Lakers would go on to win their first Shaq-Kobe championship, and would eventually three-peat as NBA champs 3 4. Shaq was also on his way to an MVP season, and about zero teams in the NBA had any personnel to even pretend to stop him. In this context, it's a bit less shocking that Shaq put up 61 points and 23 rebounds against the hometown rival (and hopelessly incompetent 5) Clippers. In this game, Shaq dunked the ball through the basket a total of 11 times 6.
It's very possible that some other player in the past 17 seasons has had more than 11 dunks. Corey Brewer (who's never averaged more than 13 points in a season) once scored 51 points in a game. LeBron once scored 8 points in a playoff game. James Harden once had a game with zero turnovers. Weird things happen, and it's not a given that the most dominant game of the most dominant season of Shaq's career also happens to have the most dunks by a player in the past 17 years. But it's very probable, and here's why we know that.
Statistics is a crazy world, and probability is even crazier. Imagine a world where a 70 year old reality TV star is president, scientists and politicians disagree about basic facts of nature, and a smartphone app with no revenue is worth 40 billion dollars - that's what probability theory is like. Weird symbols, equations that don't look like equations, lots of weird logical rules and conclusions - it's a complicated and fascinating field, and one that I'm by no means an expert in. But we can strategically apply a couple of simple rules from probability theory to help us get to the bottom of the core question at hand - How Many Dunks Are A Lot?
The Math Part
When economists talk about "their models" what they are really referring to is a series of math equations that they designed to fit a bunch of data that was provided to them. Statistical models are the backbone of many industries, most notably the investment banking sector. The ability to accurately model and predict the movements of individual stocks (or bonds) results in limitless fortune 7 - for those who can maintain it long enough to get wealthy. Statistical modeling has also become a more public part of the NBA - both inside of the front office (Daryl Morey sits on the forefront) and in the Vegas betting rooms (Bob Voulgaris among others). In our case, we can use a relatively simple probabilistic approach based on what's known as a Normal Distribution. The specifics of a normal distribution function aren't incredibly complex, but for our purpose what matters is the concept itself - that provided a sufficiently large sample of random variables, averages of those random variables drawn from independent distributions converge towards a normal distribution. If we subtract out the fancy words, we get what's widely known as a bell curve.
One consequence of the Normal Distribution is a rule that is not aptly referred to as the 68-95-99.7 Rule; roughly 68% of values in a normal distribution fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean. As you might suspect, 95% of values in a normal distribution fall within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% of values fall within 3 standard deviations. This rule acts as a shorthand for remembering the percentage of values that fall within the range of 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution. Human height is commonly used to exemplify the 68-95-99.7 Rule - if the average American male has a height of 5'7 with a standard deviation of 3" 8, then we would roughly expect the following trends.
Interestingly, the same general strategy can be used to approximate 9 many large scale data sets, including weight, shoe size, bench press, boob size, or mile time. Knowing the value of the normal distribution and the 68-95-99.7 Rule, we can now build a simple model to help provide insight into our data set of both player and team dunks.
The Numbers Part
Basketball reference provides us with a lot of data - and if you find yourself using them a lot definitely throw them $20 a year to support their mission. And it's not just basketball, they do NFL, MLB, and NHL as well.10 Unfortunately, they don't have individual game numbers for dunks, only year by year stats. If we start by grabbing all the teams who had 400+ dunks in a season from 2000/2001 to now, we get something that looks like the following.
Fig.1
And when we divide these numbers by the 82 game NBA season (or the lockout-shortened 66 game season in 2011/2012).
Fig.2
As you might suspect, Excel's conditional formatting feature turns the highest numbers the brightest shade of green, and it becomes apparent that Denver's 2013 season contained by far the most dunks of any season in modern NBA history. We may never know, but it could very well also be the highest number of dunks in a season in all of NBA history. From this data, an obvious conclusion can be drawn - Denver didn't get exactly 7.8 dunks in each game during the 2013/2014 season, but instead had some games of (probably) 3 or 4 dunks, and some games of 12 or 13 dunks. At the end of the season they averaged 7.83 dunks per game, but there was an obvious game-by-game variation that accounted for the final season total.
At this point we run into a problem - how do we know (or calculate) the game-by-game variation of an NBA team without knowing the 82 data points that make up the data set? The unfortunate answer is of course that we don't have enough information, and that any further attempt to calculate this number is not mathematically valid. But out of the ashes of mathematical certainty rises the phoenix of probability theory - and a way out of our current conundrum. Using the magical powers of watching a lot of NBA games, combined with superior googling and “insider” facebook conversations, I developed a mathematical model to approximate the variance of dunks in an NBA game. This model combined with the 68-95-99.7 Rule and my amateur grasp of NBA game theory allows us to create a modified version of a normal distribution (known as a weighted normal distribution) to estimate the rate of occurrence of various conditions as outlined below.
Fig.3
It's definitely not perfect, but there is some logic to the choices made, particularly as it relates to the percentage factors assigned to the normal model. First, clearly there is no way to have a negative amount of dunks in an NBA game 11, so we know that there's a hard lower bound. Following a similar line of thought, there is no upper bound on the number of dunks achievable in an NBA game 12, but it is more likely (due to a smaller sample size and thus higher individual variation) that a player gets 3x their average amount of dunks in a game than it is that a team does the same. So I tried to adjust my variation points to account for these factors - regardless of the technical validity of the specific numbers I chose, the next step is the same.
From this model, if a team averages 5 dunks per game, we would predict that they would exceed 10 dunks (or two standard deviations from the mean) roughly one out of every 44 games. That makes conceptual sense - it's totally believable that an average team would have twice as many dunks as average roughly twice per season. In the same manner, the model estimates that a player who averages 2 dunks per game would have 1 dunk about as often as he has 3 dunks, and would have 5+ dunks about 2 times per season. Again, the specifics of the numbers chosen are debatable (and very much worth debating), but regardless of the exact model used, the general process is the same.
Conclusion - How Many Dunks are A Lot?
Using this model with our data from Basketball Reference, we can make some interesting observations and evaluate the relevance of our model with real world examples. Since the '00/01 NBA season, the '12/13 Denver nuggets reign supreme as a slam-dunking team, and if our assumptions about game-by-game variance are accurate, we could reasonably estimate that they exceeded 12 dunks around 12 times during that season, or an average of about 6.3 times per game. This is a reasonable prediction, and reasonable estimations are the cornerstone of probability theory - if a model fails to provide reasonable data outside of the outlier situations, it's probably a bad model. In this case, we get reasonable estimates like that '12/13 LeBron had 1 dunk about as often as he had 3 dunks, or '04/05 Shaq has about 9 dunks about twice per season.
Fig.4
Speaking of Shaq, there's still one last question to be answered. Does it make sense (from the combination of the raw data from BBREF and our probabilistic model) that Shaq's 11 dunk game in 2000 was indeed the most dunks of any game since? If we take this case to our model, we find that if 1999-2000 Shaq was averaging 4 dunks per game ('99/00 is the last year for which we don't have data), we could reasonably estimate that he would have a 10 dunk game (250% of 4 dunks) about once every 44 games, and there's certainly a reasonable chance that 11 dunks would occur at some point in an 82 game season - and indeed it did, late in the regular season as Shaq was wrapping up his MVP award and on the way to his first of three straight NBA titles. And although our statistical model doesn't attempt to predict how an opponent might affect the number of dunks, it certainly is reasonable that Shaq would have 11 dunks in his best game of his best season against the worst team in the NBA.
Epilogue - What about other NBA Players?
For a player who averages 2.75 dunks per game, our model estimates that we would see an 11 dunk game (400% of 2.75), roughly once every 769 games, or about once every ten seasons. Appendix A outlines the career dunks of 4 players - Shaq (‘00/01 onwards), LeBron, Dwight, and DeAndre Jordan - two of whom (Shaq and Dwight) have averaged very close to 2.75 dunks per game over their careers. In fact, if our model is accurate, we would consider it relatively likely that Dwight Howard (2.65 dunks/game over a 939 game career) has achieved 11 dunks in a game (If anyone can find footage, I’d love to see it). As for LeBron and his career high 8 dunks (533% of his 1.5 dunk/game career average), our model indicates that 8 dunks is an exceedingly rare occurrence (less than 1/20,000 games) which would seem unreasonable until you take into account the indisputable fact that LeBron is not human and is thus not governed by the probabilistic laws of mere mortals.
Liner Notes & References -
  1. Current Pistons Color Commentator and former Pistons Player
  2. Just kidding, blame your NBAPA reps, the cable media, and the lack of DVR.
  3. *** Detroit Pistons Homer Alert ***
  4. Before getting DESTORYED by the Detroit Pistons in 5 games, in one of the biggest finals upsets in NBA history.
  5. Clippers finished 15-67, with the worst DRTG and second worst ORTG in the league.
  6. Shaq finished the game with 61 points and 23 rebounds on 69% shooting in 45 minutes, which is good for 21st all time on Basketball Reference’s Game Score metric. YouTube.
  7. See Bridgewater Associates
  8. As referenced in this [Columbia Statistics Course Assignment](www.stat.columbia.edu/~martin/W1111/Review2.pdf) - I don't get Google sometimes. Is it really that hard for Google to find a better source for the first overall hit? (My search was “standard deviation of male height”). Also, Reddit won't let me inline this link (I'm assuming) because it is a .PDF.
  9. Important Disclaimer: this is a modeling technique; just because a dataset seems to fit a normal distribution does not mean that it does perfectly or that it will continue to in the future. It’s also true that nothing in nature perfectly follows a normal distribution, just that a normal distribution is a good approximation of many natural phenomena.
  10. Too important for a footnote. Seriously this site is one of the best NBA resources on the web.
  11. Unless you count dunking on your own basket a la Gerald Green - Good thing he didn’t do this in the NBA, or else our whole statistical premise would be flawed.
  12. Unless you’re playing in the All-Star Game- then all bets are off, all models break down, and the sheer number of alley-oops and dunks permanently warp the fabric of space time.
Appendix A - Dunks/Game per Season, Career (Basketball Reference)
submitted by danforhan to nba [link] [comments]

[Sunday, 17. March]

World News

A petition calling for the removal of Senator Fraser Anning from parliament over his response to the NZ mosque terrorist attacks, has received over 800K signatures, the most in Australian history.
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New Zealand pulls Murdoch’s Sky News Australia off the air over mosque massacre coverage
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New Zealand shooting: Australian leader sides with teen who egged anti-Muslim senator
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All news, US and international.

Judge Blocks Kentucky Fetal Heartbeat Law That Bans Abortion After 6 Weeks
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Racist tirade caught on video costs Hamden, Connecticut school employee her job
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Feds seize 1 million lbs. of pork smuggled from China to N.J. port amid African swine fever outbreak
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Science

Our oceans broke heat records in 2018 and the consequences are catastrophic
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Drug which makes human blood 'lethal' to mosquitoes can reduce malaria spread, finds a new cluster-randomised trial, the 'first of its kind' to show ivermectin drug can help control malaria across whole communities without causing harmful side effects (n=2,712, including 590 aged<5).
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A study of ancient DNA from the Iberian Peninsula suggest Iberian male lineages were almost completely replaced, between 4,500 and 4,000 years ago, by newcomers originating on the Russian steppe.
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Technology

The WhatsApp Cofounder Who Sold To Facebook For $19 Billion Tells Students To Delete Facebook
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Valve takes down user tributes memorializing the New Zealand shooting suspect - More than 100 profiles utilized the name or picture of the alleged shooter
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Facebook says it removed 1.5 million videos of the New Zealand mosque attack
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Sadly, this is not the Onion.

Fall Out Boy is sued for overuse of llama puppets in videos, marketing
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Man who bet $67k on Warriors making playoffs to win $670 can now breathe
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Chinese man robs woman at ATM, but returns her cash after seeing her empty bank balance
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Ask Reddit...

What’s a good song that tells a sad story?
Comments
What movie would be totally NSFW if you remove just 1 letter from the title?
Comments
What's a uniquely American problem?
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Sysadmin

Is Microsoft trying to depress me?
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As much hate as Microsoft gets for relentless updates, can we spare some for Apple?
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Anyone has ancient Brother printers in their network? What's with the sudden firmware update?
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Microsoft SQL Server

Apache Spark in SQL Server 2019
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Weird issue with Reporting Services configuration manager
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PowerShell

PowerShell Project Structure Sample
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Convert string to readable text
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Alternatives to (Measure-Object -sum).Sum
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Functional 3D Printing

There was no showerhead's holder in the apartment we moved in. Dad fixed the problem :).
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Cat collars are expensive! (this one is not, but it's still safe)
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Aluminum tape upgrade for the shop vac boom
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Data Is Beautiful

Which one is better? Left or Right? [OC]
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McDonald's locations in Europe based on OSM data [OC]
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Annual probability of heat waves above human survivability limit in the United States in 2070 [OC]
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Today I Learned (TIL)

TIL that in 1982 Jim Rice saved a 4 year old boys life. The boy was hit in the face by a foul ball and Rice knew it would take several minutes for the ballparks EMS to get to the boy. He immediately sprinted into the stands, picked up the boy, and ran him into the dugout to the team doctor.
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TIL actor Humphrey Bogart was an avid chess player, often playing on set between takes. During World War II, he played correspondence chess with members of the military posted overseas or in hospitals. The FBI intercepted this mail and thought he was sending secret codes to Europe.
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TIL: When Beethoven's Ninth Symphony premiered, it was so new and innovative that some music critics didn't accept it, and one even called it "monstrous and tasteless."
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So many books, so little time

The Book Thief is a gem!
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Found: A Medical Manual Linking Medieval Ireland to the Islamic World
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The Story Behind Dylan Thomas’s “Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night” and the Poet’s Own Stirring Reading of His Masterpiece
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OldSchoolCool: History's cool kids, looking fantastic

1973 - Me and my best friend in 1973, and then us again 33 years later.
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My dad when he first immigrated to NYC in 1986.
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The Incredible Hulk on Mr. Rogers in 1979 taking off his makeup to show kids that he wasn't real.
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aviation

A journalists guide to aircraft identification
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Figured this was appropriate.
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Walking out to the office.
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Reddit Pics

Robin Williams and his daughter Zelda.
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My team placed 2nd at Illinois State for Special Olympics Basketball :)
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Inspired by all the trashtags, I went out with my gf to clean our local beach and found a $50 note. Instant Karma
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.gifs - funny, animated gifs for your viewing pleasure

P ? X A R
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Kitty does a sexy pose on a bed
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Eagle bath
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A subreddit for cute and cuddly pictures

Ducks on the ceiling
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Such a good pupper
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You wouldn’t believe me even if I told you...those vets are evil
Comments | Link
submitted by DangerDylan to DangerDylanTLDR [link] [comments]

For those new to MLS, a conversation with the /r/MLS mods about NYCFC.

So, Manchester City and the New York Yankees spent $100m to buy a team that doesn't exist. Why?
RemyDWD - An opportunity to not just buy a sports franchise in the world's largest media market, but to set its brand at the inception? That doesn't come around very often at all.
TheMonsieur - Basically, there's no point in spending $100 million on something unless you think it's going to help you make money in the long-term. Both teams think that NYCFC will help them expand their global brand and ride the wave of soccer's rising popularity in the U.S. to profitability.
spisska - As for the league, it's been MLS' plan to get a second team in New York City for a few years now. The feeling from the league has been that this would create a natural local rivalry which would spur interest in both teams.
RemyDWD - Garber actually claimed that the league's plan to put two teams in NYC dates back to the league's inception in 1996. Now, whether or not that's believable, who knows, but it certainly wasn't a huge shock when the announcement came.
spisska - There is a long history of prickly relations between MLS and the Cosmos, so it's not a great surprise that they were left out. City by themselves would probably not have been enough from the league's perspective, but by bringing the Yankees on board, NYCFC gains a lot of clout with the city and its sporting infrastructure.
Are new MLS teams usually created from scratch like this?
spisska - It's hard to talk 'usually' when the sample size is so small. All the original teams that started in '96 and '97, were created from scratch. Later expansion sides like Portland, Seattle, Montreal, and Vancouver played at least a season or two at a lower level before joining MLS. Orlando is also expected to join MLS from the third-division in the near future.
TheMonsieur - In 2010, the Philadelphia Union was created from scratch after a large movement from a supporters' group, the Sons of Ben. That would be the closest parallel to NYCFC, except that NYCFC didn't have a supporters' group there before the project began.
RemyDWD - Of the teams that were created out of nothing, perhaps the closest parallel to NYCFC (solely because of the "parent club" relationship) is Chivas.
When and how are NYCFC going to start bringing in players?
The Monsieur - NYCFC will find their players through a combination of independent signings and the MLS Expansion Draft. Any big-name stars will likely come through separate signings.
spisska - It's not likely they'll sign many players before the expansion draft. I don't know the exact rules, but all teams will have to make a certain number of players available for this draft and NYC will be able to sign any players from that pool who they want.
RemyDWD - There's no way any existing MLS-eligible players sign for them before the end of the 2014 season, as it would keep them off the field for the season, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's some big Designated Player announcement after the World Cup.
Given the club’s pedigree, is it safe to assume that they’ll immediately set about buying trophies?
IWillKickU - It's probably a sure bet that they'll start out spending money, but the MLS infrastructure prevents teams from buying trophies. Toronto FC is a good example. They've consistently been near the top of the league in spending, but around the bottom in results. They've never even made the playoffs. Spending more money should translate to success on the field, but it doesn't always work that way in MLS.
TheMonsieur - The infrastructure in question is MLS's salary cap. Because of this, NYCFC won't be able to bring on whoever they like. Each team is only allowed to spend a certain amount of money on player wages ($2.95 million per team in 2013), thus creating parity. One notable exception comes via the Designated Player, which allows three slots for every team to bring in players on significantly high wages and not have it count towards the salary cap.
spisska - Yes, they may be able to spend more on DPs, but success in MLS matters a lot more on managing the non-DP payroll than capturing the biggest stars.
RemyDWD - Besides the salary cap, it's also worth looking at MCFC's trajectory after they were bought out in 2008. Big spending in 2008-09 and 2009-10 got them nothing. Big spending in 2010-11 got them an FA Cup. Big spending in 2011-12 won them the Premier League on the very last day. And then last season they bombed out of Europe, lost the FA Cup final to Wigan, and finished firmly second on the table. And the Yankees? One World Series championship in the last decade doesn't speak well to their spending.
In your opinion are we looking at the birth of MCFC-USA, Yankees Soccer Club, something else entirely?”
spisska - It’s hard to say at this point.
RemyDWD - You're looking at MCFC-USA. They reportedly have the 75% stake. Look at how their media is being run right now, from the website to their Twitter account, compared to City's. The Yankees are barely a brand presence right now, and I don't expect that to change.
spisska - It really depends on how the organization views itself and how the supporters think. They're setting themselves up to be a natural villain like the Yankees, but that could be a very good thing.
TheMonsieur - I think that the two entities controlling the club will balance each other out, and NYCFC will create a culture of its own.
Why would New York need a second team?
IWillKickU - The league has been pushing NY2 for a very long time. Listening to Red Bull fans on /MLS talking about going to Harrison for games seems to confirm it too. Some fans commute 2 hours each way from inside New York City Proper.
spisska - New York is colossally big, remember. Given enough time, NYC could probably support a half-dozen teams. Heck, how many League sides are there in greater Manchester? Does Burnley really need a club?
IWillKickU - Exactly. If the city is big enough that the commute is causing fans to decide not to go, it needs another team.
RemyDWD - Anywhere you put a stadium in the NYC metro area - be it in Harrison, or out in Long Island, or up in the Bronx - you're going to have someone screaming it's too far and they can't connect. This is a huge city - there's room for two teams.
IWillKickU - Plus the Cosmos have been able to draw enough fans that they're second in attendance in NASL. I think that there will be room for all three.
TheMonsieur - It’s not only about attendance. New York is the largest media market out there. Split its population in two, and the resulting number is still larger than the total of the second-largest city in the United States (Los Angeles). MLS hopes to attract more fans in the area and establish itself as a major sports league by further planting roots in sports' largest market.
Claudio Reyna has been appointed Director of Football for the club. Are there any clues about his personal footballing philosophy, and how it will fit that of former Barca executive, Ferran Soriano?
spisska - Claudo Reyna is a hugely influential figure in the US game, was one of the best players the US has ever produced, and is very highly regarded in the area of tactics and training. Reyna quite literally wrote the book that sets out a US style of play, to be used by all coaches and teams at all levels within the US national team system. Scoring him was a statement of intent, something to show they were serious about creating an institution rather than a sideshow.
TheMonsieur - Claudio Reyna has stated that he'll be looking first and foremost and Americans for the club, focusing specifically on New Yorkers. After his stint as USSF’s Youth Soccer Technical Director, this has become his area of expertise. Ferran allows him the connections he needs to scout globally.
Do you think NYCFC will be a “success”, either for the league, for New York, or on the pitch?
TheMonsieur - As MLS approaches new TV contract negotiations, there's no doubt that they'll be using NYCFC's potential as leverage. For the league, in that sense, the team is already a success, and will likely continue to be as it grows MLS's footprint in the U.S. market.
spisska - I agree. I think NYCFC is going to be a success for the club and for the league almost immediately. I also think they'll likely struggle on the pitch for the first season or two, but that's only natural for a brand new side with all new players going against established teams and systems.
TheMonsieur - I wouldn't be surprised if NYCFC gets off to a slow start. Only two expansion sides in league history have qualified for the playoffs, and this new club will have to put the effort in to reverse that trend.
quelar - If you look at the history, a club "moving up" from another league (e.g. Montreal, Vancouver, Seattle and Portland) has had much better immediate success than a "new build" (such as Philadelphia, and oh my God you are terrible Toronto FC).
spisska - By the time they get a permanent stadium (likely be the jewel of the league), I think they'll have grown into a formidable side.
RemyDWD - On the pitch? Eventually, sure, probably. For New York? I don't think it'll suddenly make the city crazy for a local side.
TheMonsieur - For New York, it might not be as huge initially. Like the United States in general, New York's front pages are still domintated by NFL, MLB, and NBA headlines, and it will take quite a bit for an MLS team to take a slice of that pie.
submitted by ibpants to NYCFC [link] [comments]

NBA Betting Trends. See who the public is betting on and get deeper insight into the pro basketball betting marketplace. These percentages represent real bets made at our contributing sportsbooks. NBA Over/Under Betting Trends. The over success rate in the respective conference finals has hovered around 50 percent the last 10 NBA seasons. Between 2010 and 2018, the over went 50-51-2. But that stretch also includes a 2018 season where the under hit in 11 of 14 games. NBA Betting Trends When making NBA betting picks, it’s important to have knowledge of the latest NBA betting trends, to maintain an up to date picture on what is going on in the NBA as you wager. Our NBA betting trends section has your back with up to date trends and information in the NBA, from the top teams in the league all the way to the nba First-round series odds and 2019 NBA playoff betting trends The Golden State Warriors are huge favorites on the series prices at sportsbooks to open the playoffs with a victory over the Los NBA Betting Trends for June, 2020 - Find the best betting trends and handicapping stats anywhere on the internet!

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