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Word of warning regarding CSL betting
At the time of writing, Beijing Renhe - Henan Jianye just kicked off, with the away side being the heavy favourites with avg. odds of 1.50 (Source). Now, I could explain in 3-4 paragraphs why these odds are odd by just comparing the teams, but to summarize the important part: Henan Jianye is garbage and Beijing Renhe is slightly less garbage. So what is the problem? The odds for this game opened at 2.56 - 3.51 - 2.73 (1X2, Pinnacle odds), not going into details I would say this is fairly priced, midtable garbage team vs 2nd to bottom garbage team; it could go both ways. Prematch, the odds had changed to 5.83 - 4.37 - 1.50. In a "clean" competition it would probably mean that something big happened; injuries, point deduction, maybe even no supporters. However, in this match nothing of that kind happened. Then what is going on here? Let's start with some background:
Henan's Korean coach Chang Woe-Ryong got fired after the 1-4 defeat to Shandong Luneng. If it was justified to fire him is not for me to decide, but anyone can make a case for his dismissal. The results weren't good nor was the quality of play showing any signs of progression.
Technically, Beijing Renhe and Hebei CFFC are out of the running for continental football (only top 4 qualify). Their relegation worries are also not that big, especially since the meltdown extraordinaire at Tianjin Quanjian.
Why Hebei? Well, that is where I got suspicious. The first match for new coach Wang Baoshan was the homegame Henan - Hebei. The away side, coached by the Premier League's finest Chris Coleman, struggled for a long time but had been getting decent results as of recent. However, their goal of qualifying for the ACL is long, long gone. Opening odds were 3.35 - 3.56 - 2.17 (Source, Pinnacle odds). Pretty logical right? Relegation side out of form vs slightly more in-form mid table team, nothing shady here. Then, before kickoff, odds for Henan had dropped to an avg. of 1.57 - 4.07 - 5.47. Injuries for Hebei? Nope. Point deduction? Nope. Contract issues with players? Nope. Financial worries? Nope. Bettors finally remembered it was Sunderland Chris Coleman and not Wales Chris Coleman? Well... Maybe.. Henan, in an.. ahem.. Surprising turn of events, won the game 2-0, which was already achieved in the 11th minute. So up till this point it is mostly facts, below I will lay out why I think this is a very possible case of matchfixing. Be warned, this is all my opinion and I do not have any facts to back it up.
Chang Woe-Ryong got fired because Henan officials thought they could not stay up in the "legal" way. While Chang is certainly not the South-Korean Guardiola, his preferred counter-attacking tactics have gotten him various jobs at relegation-candidates and he can make any team under his control a pain in the ass to beat. The new coach, Wang Baoshan, coached Chongqing Lifan to promotion back when they were in the China League 1. He also spent some time at two other CL1 sides, without a lot of success. All three sides, especially Chongqing, can be labelled as suspicious when it comes to matchfixing activities.
Related to Wang Baoshan, the suspicious odds movements started once Chang left. Was Chang fired because he would not cooperate in matchfixing? I don't know and he will probably not say so either.
Henan is certainly not dead in the relegation battle. The implosions happening at both Tianjin teams and Chongqing being just two points above them, means that Henan certainly has a chance to stay up. This does require them to win games though, and that seemed to be the problem under Chang.
However, is it really believable for a team to hire a Chinese coach with hardly any credentials to turn the tide? Dalian Yifang hired Bernd Schuster who took the team to a slightly safer haven, Chongqing improved a bit under Jordy Cruyff and last season Capello managed to keep Jiangsu Suning out of relegation issues. In fact, looking at how the teams perform vs. the expectations, I would be sure that Chinese coaches underperform by a large margin. The only "succesful" Chinese coach would be Li Xiaopeng of Shandong Luneng, who truly is doing an admirable job.
If this is true it would be more believable as to why Henan appointed a Chinese coach just before the matchfixing started happening.
What is next? Obviously, as a bettor I would be very careful when betting on matches involving Henan from now on. Especially in games vs. opponents that have nothing to gain or lose on the table, odds for Henan might drop quite hard. If it is possible at your bookmaker, in these cases I would lay Henan's opponent (if they are the favourites) at opening odds and close your position before kick-off. Again, it is important to note that I would only do this vs. opponents that are not deep in relegation or ACL-qualification battles. Then again, it might just be someone who bets really big on Henan thinking it is matchfixing and then all of the things I wrote above are nonsense. I'm not sure as to which one I prefer.. Anyway, I hope this helps as a warning not to take the odds at face value, especially in China.
This post explains how to get tracked by the /SoccerBetting tipster-bot. In order to not spam the sub, I posted it on my own profile. If anything changes with the bot I will edit this post
For the bot to track you, you post your picks, as usual in the Daily Picks Thread but you will have to put the actual picks in a table format as this:
The Table header allows minor spelling mistakes but the country has to be correct. All predictions have to be in one table, before and after the table there can be as much text as you wish. If you are unsure, just put tropianhs somehow in your comment and I will answer if the bot fetched your pick. You can add columns to your table as you like. Also the order does not have to be the same. But the 6 latter named columns have to be in your table.
Now for the "Prediction" part the following things are possible:
Possible Variations that will work
Both Teams to score
BTS yes/y/True, BTTS no/n/false
Over n goals
ovr 1.5, o 0.5, o2.5, over1.5
Over n goals Team
Over 1.5 H/A
Over 1.5 A
ovr 1.5 a, o 0.5 h, o2.5 h, over1.5 a
Under n goals
U 1.5, undr 0.5, u2.5, under1.5
Under n goals Team
Under 1.5 H/A
Under 1.5 H
U 1.5 H, undr 0.5 A, u2.5 H, under1.5 A
Draw no Bet
DNB H, DNBX, DNB 2 ...
DC X1, DCAX, ...
AH 1/X/2 +3.5
AH 1 -3
ahH-4.0, AH A +1.5...
Basically White spaces don't matter i.e. 'over2.5' and 'over 2.5' is okay. Furthermore, 'H' and '1' or 'D' and 'X' or 'A' and '2' are always exchangeable.
If you want to have multiple tables in the comment you can do that and all picks will be tracked. Just make sure that all of the table fulfill the latter mentioned rules.
I want to see my picks in the database
If you are unsure if the bot everything correct you can PM me something with the subject !Picks Tipsterbot and the bot will answer with your last 80 picks.
Spelling and Notation
For the Countries I take the notation of betexplorer.com (if you are unsure just check there)
Letter case is not important, i.e. Barcelona will be the same bArCeLoNa
Spelling mistakes can happen
Example: 'Bayern München' or 'Munich' (without prefix Bayern) are both recognized.
Odds have to be in European decimals
What if the bot does not understand my pick or if I edit my pick
If the Table Format is wrong the bot will not fetch the pick
If the bot does not understand country or prediction it will be counted as a push
If you edit a pick (i.e. the table) after the bot fetched and the game has not started yet it he will count it as two picks
If post your comment after the game has started or the bot fetches it after the game has started, he counts it as a push. To be save you should post your comment half an hour before the kick-off
Things that are currently missing:
Accumulators (they are currently tracked as singles)
Strange bets that are not listed in the "Possible Predictions" part
Quarter Asian Handicap
The bot does not fetch the odds automatically. You could easily cheat it by taking way to high odds. I will hopefully fix this in the future.
I want to play accumulators
They will get tracked (for now) as singles. A compromise is that you indicate in your table that this is an accumulator (for the viewers) as in the table below:
However, the bot will ignore the Accumulator part and track it as singles. Check out this post why accumulators might not be really good.
What happens if I don't want to get tracked
If you don't use the upper table format you will not get tracked. If you were tracked but earlier but want to stop now just PM me, I will delete (if wanted) all data from your tips out of the database and put you on a blacklist, such that the bot does not track you, even if you use the upper mentioned format.
The bot made a mistake
It's still in an early testing phase. Just PM me and we will figure it out.
I have a suggestion
Just comment below this post and we can discuss it.
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3-Way Betting Explained with Examples (also known as 1x2)
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