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Word of warning regarding CSL betting

At the time of writing, Beijing Renhe - Henan Jianye just kicked off, with the away side being the heavy favourites with avg. odds of 1.50 (Source). Now, I could explain in 3-4 paragraphs why these odds are odd by just comparing the teams, but to summarize the important part: Henan Jianye is garbage and Beijing Renhe is slightly less garbage.
So what is the problem? The odds for this game opened at 2.56 - 3.51 - 2.73 (1X2, Pinnacle odds), not going into details I would say this is fairly priced, midtable garbage team vs 2nd to bottom garbage team; it could go both ways.
Prematch, the odds had changed to 5.83 - 4.37 - 1.50. In a "clean" competition it would probably mean that something big happened; injuries, point deduction, maybe even no supporters. However, in this match nothing of that kind happened.
Then what is going on here? Let's start with some background:
Why Hebei? Well, that is where I got suspicious. The first match for new coach Wang Baoshan was the homegame Henan - Hebei. The away side, coached by the Premier League's finest Chris Coleman, struggled for a long time but had been getting decent results as of recent. However, their goal of qualifying for the ACL is long, long gone. Opening odds were 3.35 - 3.56 - 2.17 (Source, Pinnacle odds). Pretty logical right? Relegation side out of form vs slightly more in-form mid table team, nothing shady here.
Then, before kickoff, odds for Henan had dropped to an avg. of 1.57 - 4.07 - 5.47. Injuries for Hebei? Nope. Point deduction? Nope. Contract issues with players? Nope. Financial worries? Nope. Bettors finally remembered it was Sunderland Chris Coleman and not Wales Chris Coleman? Well... Maybe..
Henan, in an.. ahem.. Surprising turn of events, won the game 2-0, which was already achieved in the 11th minute.
So up till this point it is mostly facts, below I will lay out why I think this is a very possible case of matchfixing. Be warned, this is all my opinion and I do not have any facts to back it up.
What is next? Obviously, as a bettor I would be very careful when betting on matches involving Henan from now on. Especially in games vs. opponents that have nothing to gain or lose on the table, odds for Henan might drop quite hard. If it is possible at your bookmaker, in these cases I would lay Henan's opponent (if they are the favourites) at opening odds and close your position before kick-off. Again, it is important to note that I would only do this vs. opponents that are not deep in relegation or ACL-qualification battles.
Then again, it might just be someone who bets really big on Henan thinking it is matchfixing and then all of the things I wrote above are nonsense. I'm not sure as to which one I prefer..
Anyway, I hope this helps as a warning not to take the odds at face value, especially in China.
submitted by lmctx to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

How do I get tracked by the tipster BOT

This post explains how to get tracked by the /SoccerBetting tipster-bot. In order to not spam the sub, I posted it on my own profile.
If anything changes with the bot I will edit this post


For the bot to track you, you post your picks, as usual in the Daily Picks Thread but you will have to put the actual picks in a table format as this:
Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager
Croatia 2 HNL Gorica Dugopolje H 1.98 1
Croatia 2 HNL Gorica Dugopolje Over 2.5 1.95 1
World Club Friendly Kickers Offenbach Bayern Munich DNB A 1.11 1
The Table header allows minor spelling mistakes but the country has to be correct. All predictions have to be in one table, before and after the table there can be as much text as you wish. If you are unsure, just put tropianhs somehow in your comment and I will answer if the bot fetched your pick.
You can add columns to your table as you like. Also the order does not have to be the same. But the 6 latter named columns have to be in your table.

Possible Predictions

Now for the "Prediction" part the following things are possible:
Prediction Correct Strings Example Possible Variations that will work
1X2 1,X,2 1 H,D,A
Both Teams to score BTTS yes/no BTTS yes BTS yes/y/True, BTTS no/n/false
Over n goals Over 1.5 Over 1.5 ovr 1.5, o 0.5, o2.5, over1.5
Over n goals Team Over 1.5 H/A Over 1.5 A ovr 1.5 a, o 0.5 h, o2.5 h, over1.5 a
Under n goals Under 1.5 Under 1.5 U 1.5, undr 0.5, u2.5, under1.5
Under n goals Team Under 1.5 H/A Under 1.5 H U 1.5 H, undr 0.5 A, u2.5 H, under1.5 A
Draw no Bet DNB 1/X/2 DNB 1 DNB H, DNBX, DNB 2 ...
Double Chance DC 1X/X2/12 DC 1X DC X1, DCAX, ...
Asian Handicap AH 1/X/2 +3.5 AH 1 -3 ahH-4.0, AH A +1.5...
Basically White spaces don't matter i.e. 'over2.5' and 'over 2.5' is okay. Furthermore, 'H' and '1' or 'D' and 'X' or 'A' and '2' are always exchangeable.

Multiple Tables

If you want to have multiple tables in the comment you can do that and all picks will be tracked. Just make sure that all of the table fulfill the latter mentioned rules.

I want to see my picks in the database

If you are unsure if the bot everything correct you can PM me something with the subject !Picks Tipsterbot and the bot will answer with your last 80 picks.

Spelling and Notation

  • For the Countries I take the notation of (if you are unsure just check there)
  • Letter case is not important, i.e. Barcelona will be the same bArCeLoNa
  • Spelling mistakes can happen
  • Example: 'Bayern München' or 'Munich' (without prefix Bayern) are both recognized.
  • Odds have to be in European decimals

What if the bot does not understand my pick or if I edit my pick

  • If the Table Format is wrong the bot will not fetch the pick
  • If the bot does not understand country or prediction it will be counted as a push
  • If you edit a pick (i.e. the table) after the bot fetched and the game has not started yet it he will count it as two picks
  • If post your comment after the game has started or the bot fetches it after the game has started, he counts it as a push. To be save you should post your comment half an hour before the kick-off

Things that are currently missing:

  • Accumulators (they are currently tracked as singles)
  • Live Bets
  • Strange bets that are not listed in the "Possible Predictions" part
  • Quarter Asian Handicap
  • The bot does not fetch the odds automatically. You could easily cheat it by taking way to high odds. I will hopefully fix this in the future.

I want to play accumulators

They will get tracked (for now) as singles. A compromise is that you indicate in your table that this is an accumulator (for the viewers) as in the table below:
Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Accumulator Outcome
Norway Division 1 Levanger Arendal H 1.57 0.33 1
World Friendly International U19 Belarus U19 Estonia H 1.53 0.33 1
World Friendly International U19 Finland U19 Holland A 1.57 0.33 1
World World Cup Libya Guinea U2.5 1.6 0.25 2
World World Cup Montenegro Romania U2.5 1.53 0.25 2
World World Cup N. Ireland Czech Republica U2.5 1.47 0.25 2
World World Cup Cameroon Nigeria U2.5 1.53 0.25 2
However, the bot will ignore the Accumulator part and track it as singles. Check out this post why accumulators might not be really good.

What happens if I don't want to get tracked

If you don't use the upper table format you will not get tracked. If you were tracked but earlier but want to stop now just PM me, I will delete (if wanted) all data from your tips out of the database and put you on a blacklist, such that the bot does not track you, even if you use the upper mentioned format.

The bot made a mistake

It's still in an early testing phase. Just PM me and we will figure it out.

I have a suggestion

Just comment below this post and we can discuss it.
submitted by tropianhs to u/tropianhs [link] [comments]

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