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Disappointed with Tesla Service Center experience but it ended up OK. Simply needed a fault cleared and they refused to do it under warranty.

https://imgur.com/LYhEOUo
tl;dr - I had the alert above "12V battery must be replaced soon" and I made an appointment to have it cleared. Upon arrival, because I had "tampered" with the vehicle, they refused to clear the alert notification for me unless I paid their minimum hourly rate of $195. Long story short, after a long 2 hour discussion/argument over this, we landed at a $50 fee and they cleared the alert. It's been two weeks and the alert (just as I told them) has not re-appeared and everything is fine. More details on why I was so frustrated below.
First and foremost, I fully acknowledge and admit that I installed an aftermarket amplifier and subwoofer in my 2020 Model 3. During this installation, I tapped my 12V power source at the "DC to DC Penthouse" under the rear passenger seats. I know about the relay/resistor but the amplifier I added is a very low current amp that draws less than 20A and is extremely efficient as it provides 400W but into a 0.25 Ohm load, so effectively equivalent to a 25W amplifier at the standard 4 Ohm load. After speaking with other knowledgeable people (both Tesla electronics and car audio) we agreed and believe this load should not be an issue and I would add the relay/resistor later if and when alerts or errors appeared.
But during installation, as I disconnected and reconnected all the wires for my install, I admittedly did trip Tesla's "sensitive" monitoring of the car's 12V power delivery system and received the long list of "bad errors" you would get that can be mitigated by adding a relay and resistor. This was expected and once the install was finished, simply disconnecting the front 12V battery for 10 seconds caused the Model 3's "e-fuses" to reset and those errors disappeared and have never returned. However, the "12V battery must be replaced soon" error did not disappear.
Sidenote, I've since read (not tried) that you can simply go into your Tesla menu and change your wheel type to something else which causes a full reset/shut-down of the vehicle and that clears the error... then you set your car back to your actual wheel type.
So I scheduled an appointment with Tesla to have this error cleared. I was fully confident after testing the front 12V battery with a multi-meter and also because the car was only 5 months old, that the battery wasn't dead or damaged. I even told the service writer that while they want to replace the battery, it was OK with me but I didn't feel it was necessary and I just wanted the error cleared. If it did come back, we can run longer diagnostics at that time... in order to save both their time and mine. I even mentioned the amplifier install (they'd see the wires anyways).
This is when I'm told by him and the Service Center manager and a technician that it could not be performed under warranty because I modified the vehicle. Having modded cars for nearly two decades and knowing the laws around this, I challenged them on it. The funny part is that they didn't even see the wiring for the subwoofer amp going to the DC-DC penthouse, but rather, the thin 18 guage wire tapped to the front battery that powers my RPlate digital license plate... which is basically a "Kindle e-book reader" type screen with some backlighting (probably draws 7 amps at most).
So I asked "Let me get this straight, if anything is connected to the 12V front battery or even the DC-DC Penthouse, you void any warranty work on the car's electrical system?"... and the manager said YES. I reiterated that if a California legal digital license plate is installed on a Telsa and connected to the 12V battery, they would void the warranty and they said YES. I reminded them that nothing was damaged and all I wanted was them to plug in their special Tesla Tool (because unlike every other car, I can't plug in an OBD-2 scanning tool and clear it myself) and to clear the codes. The manager said (and in my opinion lied) that the Model 3 is different and it's not that simple... that it takes hours to perform this function. They even said any non-authorized equipment added to the Tesla would end in the same result... so I asked about Apple phone chargers, or radar detectors or LED lighting and they said "YES".
At this point I was getting pretty frustrated... when I facetiously inquired again.... "So let me get this straight, if I plug in an Apple iPhone charger to the 12V or USB, you will void my electrical system warranty?"... they then wisely took a step back, paused and said "Well, no because that's Apple and it's authorized". Excuse me? Is Apple an affiliate or subsidiary of Tesla? The technician then said "well no but any accessories should be plugged into the auxiliary power source and when I asked what that source was, he said it's the 12V cigarette lighter adapter in the center console.
The 12V cigarette lighter plug in the center console... the one that some tire inflators trip the e-fuses on... this is where the technician said I should have connected my JL Audio 400W amplifier to. As my frustration hit a new high, I simply asked to get all of this in writing so I could deal with it later and at a higher level. Keep in mind, 3 people from the service center were dealing with me on this for over an hour, for what I believed to be a 15 minute job that I was requesting. I just wanted the error cleared because I didn't believe (and they confirmed) is not a self-clearing error.
As I was waiting for the manager to put into writing everything they had told me (and add his name and signature to it)... I decided to try another tactic as I had wasted much more time on this than it was worth for me, or the three Tesla employees. I simply stated... "Look, I understand if you have your rules and maybe you think or are told you can't do this for "free" under warranty if you suspect the car was damaged by a non-Tesla modification to the vehicle... but I am legally entitled to install accessories (even a subwoofer) to a vehicle that I purchased and until you can prove to me that my adding something caused the errodamage, you cannot deny me any warranty work. There is no damage, I just want the error cleared. So to offer them an out and for me to get on my way, I offered to pay $50 to have them clear the error. So he agrees and charges me $50.
The car was ready 20 minutes later (not a few hours as they stated) and I was on my way. It's been two weeks now and the error (surprise, surprise) has not come back and the car is working flawlessly.
If the electronics on the car weren't working... like the screen wouldn't turn on... and I had a bunch of after-market gear installed, I understand that Tesla may want to find out the root cause of the issue and I fully accept that if it was indeed a result of adding an amplifier to the vehicle, that it would/could be my fault and the cost to resolve would be on me and not Tesla. But to deny a 20 minute job of simply clearing an error code (that I cannot clear on my own due to not having a standard OBD-2 port) is absurd in my opinion and beyond black/white legalities, just poor customer service to have gone through what I went through as a 2nd time owner of a Tesla Model 3. And now that I know there is a (potential) way to resolve this error warning without the SC getting involved, I wish I would have known that prior to making my appointment.
I love my Tesla and up to this point had nothing but great experiences with Tesla support and mobile support. But this day at the Service Center really made my question how Tesla will continue to grow and offer support to customers.
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An exhaustive lit search shows that only 5/85 SARS patients and 150/1397 COVID-19 patients were smokers, far below the 27% active smokers in china. Can anyone find a study that was missed?

In an earlier thread we saw about 27% of people in China were active smokers:
I collected all the data I could find on SARS and nCoV-2019 and smoking. The results show that smokers are far underrepresented in the patients diagnosed for both illnesses for some reason
Also, there are a few papers about smoking altering the expression of the putative "receptor" for these viruses (ACE2) in the respiratory tract, so that seems to be the likely mechanism. I organized this for myself but figured I may as well share it and see if anyone can point out something that was missed.
This is meant to be exhaustive, but I could have (of course) missed some data. Can anyone find a paper that does not show far fewer smokers than expected from the population smoking rate?
Note that the data also suggests that smokers who do get ill may more often have severe illness.

Smoking and ACE2

Quotes

We also found that ACE2 gene is expressed in specific cell types related to smoking history and location. In bronchial epithelium, ACE2 is actively expressed in goblet cells of current smokers and club cells of non-smokers. In alveoli, ACE2 is actively expressed in remodelled AT2 cells of former smokers. This may indicate that 2019-nCov infect respiratory tract through different paths in smokers, former smokers and non-smokers, and this may partially lead to different susceptibility, disease severity and treatment outcome.

Source

Quotes

Our study showed that cigarette smoke or direct nicotine inhalation inhibits the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2/AT2R in multiple organs and cell types. In the lung, cigarette smoke (6 cigarettes/d, 12 wk) inhibited the expression of both angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and AT2R.

Source

Quotes

The literature presented in this review strongly suggests that nicotine alters the homeostasis of the RAS by upregulating the detrimental angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)/angiotensin (ANG)-II/ANG II type 1 receptor axis and downregulating the compensatory ACE2/ANG-(1-7)/Mas receptor axis

Source

COVID-19

Quotes

All hospitalized patients (n = 242) (admission date from January 16 to February 3, 2020) in No. 7 Hospital of Wuhan, clinically diagnosed as “viral pneumonia” based on their clinical symptoms(fever or respiratory symptoms) with typical changes in chest radiology, were preliminarily involved in this study [...] In addition,only 9 (6.4%) patients had a history of smoking, and 7 of them were past smokers. It was reported that the prevalence of COPD in adults ≥40 years old was 13.7%, and 27.3% of adults in China were current cigarette smokers (data in 2018). The relationship between smoking and coronavirus infection is not clear, and the exact underlying causes of the lower incidence of COVID-19 in current smokers are still unknown.

Data

Source

Quotes

This single-centre, retrospective, observational study was done at Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China)... We report the clinical courses and clinical outcomes of 52 critically ill patients from 710 laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2.

Data

[Doesnt add up...]

Source

Quotes

The Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center [...] Three of the 51 (7%) confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV pneumonia were current cigarette smokers.

Data

Source

Quotes

We extracted the data on 1,099 patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV ARD from 552 hospitals in 31 provinces/provincial municipalities through January 29th, 2020

Data

Source

Quotes

In this retrospective, single-centre study, we included all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020 [...] By the end of Jan 25, 31 (31%) patients had been discharged and 11 (11%) patients had died; all other patients were still in hospital (table 1). The first two deaths were a 61-year-old man (patient 1) and a 69-year-old man (patient 2). They had no previous chronic underlying disease but had a long history of smoking...Of the remaining nine patients who died, eight patients had lymphopenia, seven had bilateral pneumonia, five were older than 60 years, three had hypertension, and one was a heavy smoker.

Data

Source

Quotes

All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan.

Data

Current smoking

Source

Quotes

Patients were admitted to the Dazhou Central Hospital from 22 January 2020 to 10 February 2020, with final follow-up for the study on 11 February 2020.

Data

Smoking History

Source

SARS

Quotes

All patients in the study had SARS, were managed in the two major Hong Kong hospitals (ie, Prince of Wales Hospital and United Christian Hospital), and had developed spontaneous pneumothorax during their hospitalization between March 10, 2003, and April 28, 2003 [...] None of the six patients had a history of smoking or pulmonary disease.

Data

Source

Quotes

The index case of SARS in Singapore ocurred in a previously healthy 23-year-old woman of Chinese ethnicity who had stayed on the 9th floor of a hotel during a vacation to Hong Kong, February 20–25, 2003. A physician from southern China who stayed on the same floor of the hotel during this period is believed to have been the source of infection for this index patient and the index patients of outbreaks in Vietnam and Canada. [...] The demographic profiles of the index and 19 contact cases are shown (Table 1)... One patient was a smoker.

Data

Source

Quotes

Between February 22 and March 22, 2003, we identified 10 epidemiologically linked patients (all southern Chinese) whose disease met the CDC case definition of March 17, 2003, of SARS at our hospital cluster (Queen Mary Hospital, Kwong Wah Hospital, and Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital) in Hong Kong [...] Eight of the 10 patients had never smoked, 1 was a current smoker (25 cigarettes per day), and 1 was a former smoker (20 cigarettes per day) who had stopped five years earlier.

Data

Source

Quotes

In this case-control study, 447 patients attended the SARS clinic based at the Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong, between 12th March and 14th May 2003 [...] The results in this study show that smoking does not protect patients from contracting SARS. In this cohort a greater proportion of non-smokers contracted SARS than smokers, which may appear to support the initial rumours. However, a far greater proportion of non- smoking, female, health care workers contacted SARS cases than smokers and were therefore placed at much greater risk. When adjustments are made for gender, health care occupation and contact history, then smoking is shown to provide no protection. Even if smoking does protect patients against SARS, caution is required because of the many other hazardous effects associated with chronic smoking.7

Data

Per Group
Per cases

Source

Quotes

A 55-year-old previously healthy man who had recently traveled to Hong Kong [...] The patient was a nonsmoker with no known risk factors.

Data

Source

Quotes

At 11:30 on 8 April 2003, a 64-year-old man presented to the National University Hospital emergency department (ED) complain ing of light headedness for 3 days, and dry cough and body aches for 2 days. His general practitioner had recorded a temperature of 37.7 C. On further enquiry in the ED, he described mild dyspnoea and palpitations. For over 40 years, he had smoked 25 cigarettes a day, and had consumed at least 100 g of alcohol per day.

Data

Source

Quotes

The Hong Kong newspaper reported that some people say there were few smokers amongst the cases reported in Guangdong, the province in southern China where the disease originated, which further fuelled the rumors.
The Post said many smokers in mainland China had upped their cigarette consumption in response to the rumors, with many others actually taking up the habit.

Source

Edit:

Extra data below.

Update on 2020/03/05

Qi 2020: 53/267 with smoking history (31/50 severe) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029397v1
Wei 2020: 5/78 with smoking history (3/5 progressed) https://journals.lww.com/cmj/Abstract/publishahead/Analysis_of_factors_associated_with_disease.99363.aspx
Gardner 2017 (grant):
Our pilot data suggest that cigarette smoke or nicotine inhalation inhibits the expression of ACE2/AT2R in multiple organs including the brain, heart and lungs https://grantome.com/grant/NIH/R01-HL135635-02
Xu 2020:
It has been reported that ACE2 is the main host cell receptor of 2019-nCoV and plays a crucial role in the entry of virus into the cell to cause the final infection. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x

Update on 2020/03/10

I collected some data from the literature on the rate of smoking reported in various papers. They are all much higher than reported for SARS or nCoV-19, indicating that lying about smoking is not the cause:
31.2% of acute heart failure patients are smokers: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5581412/
21.7% of patients hospitalized with heart failure reported a smoking history: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6755852/
25.6% of hospitalized heart failure patients reported smoking: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6726881/
947/2971 (32%) of people over 60 (the same age group overrepresented in nCov-19 data) report smoking: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32115605
~19% of flu patients over 15 years old report being current smokers: https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-019-4181-2/tables/3
~63% of people with COPD had smoking history: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31330521
~22% of households had at least one smoker: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5304575/
~17% of pneumonia patients were current smokers: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4236731/
~12% of flu patients were smokers, but 40% were under 5 years old so it was at least double that rate in adults: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28456530
Zhou 2020:
This retrospective cohort study included two cohorts of adult inpatients (≥18 years old) from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China). All adult patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 according to WHO interim guidance were screened, and those who died or were discharged between Dec 29, 2019 (ie, when the first patients were admitted), and Jan 31, 2020, were included in our study. Since these two hospitals were the only desig­ nated hospitals for transfer of patients with COVID-19 from other hospitals in Wuhan until Feb 1, 2020, our study enrolled all adult inpatients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 and had a definite outcome (dead or discharged) at the early stage of the outbreak.
11/191 cases were smokers (5/54 non-survivors and 6/137 survivors)
https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)30566-3
Hu 2020:
None of the cases were healthcare workers and 8 (33.3%) had a history of recent travel to Hubei (Case 1 and 5 were residents of Hubei (marked with blue arrows), Case 3, 4, 6, 9, 13 and 17 have travelled to Hubei (marked with blue boxes), and the period in Hubei might be the suspected contact time. The suspected contact time of other cases who stay in Nanjing was marked with gray boxes according to the epi- demiological investigation). The diagnosis date of each case showed that the number of cases who have been to Hubei decreased since Jan 28, 2020 (Figure S1 in Supporting In- formation). Individuals of all ages were involved in the COVID-19 asymptomatic infection with age ranging from 5 to 95 years old (median: 32.5 years), whereas 20.8% (5/24) of the cases were aged below 15 years. Eight cases (33.3%) were males. Two cases had a history of smoking (Case 1 and Case 13), and 2 were diagnosed with diabetes and hy- pertension (Case 8 and Case 13).
2/20 adults had a smoking history
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32146694

Update on 2020/03/20

Guan 2020b:
This was a retrospective cohort study that collected data from patients with COVID-19 throughout China, under the coordination of the National Health Commission which mandated the reporting of clinical information from individual designated hospitals which admitted patients with COVID-19. After careful medical chart review, we compiled the clinical data of laboratory-confirmed hospitalized cases from 575 hospitals between November 21 st , 2019 and January 31 st , 2020. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was made based on the World Health Organization interim guidance [25]. Confirmed cases denoted the patients whose high-throughput sequencing or real-time reverse-transcription polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay findings for nasal and pharyngeal swab specimens were positive [3].
111/1590 patients with known smoking history (64/1191 without comorbidities, 47/399 with at least one comorbidity)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027664v1
Shi 2020:
In the study, we explored potential host risk factors associated with severe cases at admission in a retrospective cohort of 487 patients in Zhejiang Province of China
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32188484

Update on 2020/03/23

Tabata 2020:
During the observation period, total 107 laboratory-confirmed patients with COVID-19 from the cruise ship were hospitalized at the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital in Japan. Three patients were excluded from this study because of their withdrawal to join this study. Therefore, the remaining 104 patients were analyzed. Clinical history, physical examination and chest CT scan were evaluated on the admission day, and blood tests were conducted within two days. The characteristics of the 104 patients are presented in Table 1. The age range was 25–93 years (median, 68 years; IQR, 46.75–75), and 47 patients (45.2%) were male. The most common nationality of patients was Eastern Asia, which included Japan and China. The observation period is from three to fifteen days (median, 10; IQR, 7–10 day). Fifty two patients (50.0 %) had comorbidities.
18/104 (17.3% "Smoking"), 11/76 non-severe and 7/28 severe
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v1

Update on 2020/03/24

Tao 2020:
The clinical data of 167 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients treated in Chongqing Public Health Medical Center from January 2020 to March 2020 were collected. COVID-19 is diagnosed according to the WHO Interim Guidelines 6 . The severity of COVID -19 was defined according to the American Thoracic Society's Community Acquired Pneumonia Guidelines 7 . A confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined as a positive result on RT-PCR assay of nasal and pharyngeal swab specimens.
Smoking history by age:
0-14 15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 >=70
Asymptomatic 0/2 0/2 1/2 2/6 2/5 0/0 0/3
Mild/Common 0/5 1/19 5/28 4/30 2/26 2/13 0/4
Severe 0/0 0/0 2/7 0/3 1/5 2/3 1/4
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037259v1

Update on 2020/03/27

Shen 2020:
The study was conducted at the infectious disease department, Shenzhen Third People's Hospital in Shenzhen, China, from January 20, 2020, to March 25, 2020; final date of follow-up was March 25, 2020. [...] Five patients (age range, 36-73 years; 2 women) were treated with convalescent serum. None were smokers, and 4 of 5 had no preexisting medical conditions.
0/5 smokers
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983

Update on 2020/03/28

This is a meta-analysis, not new data. They found fewer papers than included above but still came to the same conclusion:
Alqahtani 2020:
Concerning smoking and COVID-19, our data showed a pooled prevalence of 9% current smokers, (95% CI, 4%–14%), lower than the reported prevalence of smoking in China that was 25.2% (25.1–25.4) (52). Interestingly, we found that 22.30% (31/139) of current smokers and 46% (13/28) of ex-smokers had severe complications associated and greater mortality reaching 38.5% in current smokers.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043745v1

Update on 2020/03/30

Kimball 2020:
A COVID-19 outbreak in a long-term care skilled nursing facility (SNF) in King County, Washington that was first identified on February 28, 2020, highlighted the potential for rapid spread among residents of these types of facilities (2). On March 1, a health care provider at a second long-term care skilled nursing facility (facility A) in King County, Washington, had a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, after working while symptomatic on February 26 and 28. By March 6, seven residents of this second facility were symptomatic and had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2. On March 13, CDC performed symptom assessments and SARS-CoV-2 testing for 76 (93%) of the 82 facility A residents to evaluate the utility of symptom screening for identification of COVID-19 in SNF residents.
7/53 people who tested negative were current smokers vs 1/23 positive patients
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwvolumes/69/wmm6913e1.htm
Bhatraju 2020:
We included patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 infection who were admitted to nine hospital ICUs in the Seattle region between February 24 and March 9, 2020. A confirmed case of Covid-19 was defined by a positive result on a reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of a specimen collected on a nasopharyngeal swab. Only laboratory-confirmed cases were included.
Twenty-four adults (18 years of age or older) were identified from nine hospitals, including three University of Washington (UW) Medicine Hospitals (Harborview Medical Center, UW Medical Center–Montlake, and Northwest campuses), the Virginia Mason Medical Center, and the Swedish Hospitals (First Hill and Cherry Hill). This group represents six of the eight adult acute care hospitals in the city of Seattle; hospitals connected to these systems in suburbs outside Seattle (UW–Valley Medical Center, Swedish–Issaquah, and Swedish–Edmonds) were also included in the group of nine. Pregnant women, prisoners, and children (those younger than 18 years of age) were excluded from the study.
[...] Five patients (22%) were current or former smokers
5/24 patients with a smoking history
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500

Update on 2020/04/01

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 31 March 2020
Data from laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to CDC from 50 states, four U.S. territories and affiliated islands, the District of Columbia, and New York City with February 12–March 28, 2020 onset dates were analyzed. Cases among persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship were excluded.
Total
Non-hospitalized
Hospitalized non-ICU
ICU
Hospitalization Status Unknown
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwvolumes/69/wmm6913e2.htm#T1_down

Update on 2020/04/02

Some quotes on COPD and asthma:
However, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) are relatively less common in COVID-19 patients, with a prevalence of 1.1%-2.9%. 7-9 In a study involving 140 cases with COVID-19 on the association between allergies and infection, no patients were found to have asthma or allergic rhinitis. 8 […] Given the association between virus infection and asthma, 30 it is worth carefully monitoring asthmatic patients in this coronavirus epidemic. However, in pediatric cases, we did not find COVID-19 patients with a history of asthma (unpublished data). Maybe a distinct type 2 immune response may contribute to this low prevalence of asthma and allergy patients in COVID-19. The interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and asthma remains to be further investigated, especially considering that current medical resources have been mostly focused on COVID-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32196678
COPD is one of the major drivers of mortality in China, accounting for nearly 1 million deaths annually4 and representing 30% of all deaths from COPD across the world. Why does China have such a high burden of COPD?
One obvious reason is cigarette smoking. In a recent study, Fang and colleagues5 randomly recruited more than 60,000 adults 40 years of age and older across all major provinces in China and found (astonishingly) that 58% of the male participants were smokers. In stark contrast, only 4% of female participants were smokers. Consistent with these data, 19% of men and only 8% of women in this study demonstrated COPD changes on postbronchodilator spirometry. Alarmingly, these figures are significantly higher than those reported in previous population-based studies of COPD in China in the 2000s, which had estimated the prevalence to be ∼ 10% in males and 5% in females older than age 40 years.6 https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(18)31079-1/fulltext
In The Lancet, Kewu Huang and colleagues, 6 on behalf of the China Pulmonary Health (CPH) Study Group, report key data from a national cross- sectional study in China done during 2012–15 and encompassing a representative cohort of more than 50 000 adults (21 446 men and 29 545 women with mean age 44 years). The investigators defined asthma as a self-reported history of diagnosis by a physician or as wheeze symptoms in the preceding 12 months, using the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Additionally, they incorporated spirometry with reversibility testing. The overall prevalence of asthma in the weighted study cohort was found to be 4·2% (n=2032), whereas the prevalence of asthma with airflow limitation was 1·1% (n=670). https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)31349-2/fulltext

Update on 2020/04/05

A new review article concludes the same as the above post:
Farsalinos 2020:
In fact, the consistently low prevalence of current smoking among Chinese patients with COVID-19 was further supported by the recent data recently released from the US CDC.28 From a total of 7162 patients in the US, only 1.3% were current smokers. low smoking prevalence was also observed among hospitalized non-ICU (2.1%) and ICU cases (1.1%), while the population smoking prevalence in the US is 13.8%. These observations raise a possible hypothesis that nicotine might reduce the risk for severe COVID-19. Hospitalization for COVID-19 will inevitably result in abrupt withdrawal of nicotine and its beneficial effect linked to this hypothesis in smokers or users of other nicotine products. This could, at least partly, explain the association between smoking and COVID-19 severity among hospitalized patients.27 Nicotine has been found to prevent acute lung injury in an animal ARDS model and has immunomodulatory effects.29,30 There is also evidence for an interaction between nicotine and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis, although such interactions remain unclear.2-5 In any case, the observations of a consistently low prevalence of smoking among COVID-19 cases in China and the US, together with the potential mechanisms through which nicotine interacts with the inflammatory process and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis involved in the development of COVID-19, warrant an urgent investigation of the clinical effects of pharmaceutical nicotine on COVID-19 susceptibility, progression and severity. The potential need to provide pharmaceutical nicotine products to smokers who experience an abrupt withdrawal of nicotine when hospitalized for COVID-19 or aim to follow medical advice to quit smoking to relieve underlying conditions that may increase vulnerability to serious or fatal symptoms should also be examined. https://www.qeios.com/read/article/561
Kim 2020:
Korea National Committee for Clinical Management of COVID-19 (KNCCMC) was organized in early February 2020 and consisted of infectious disease specialists or physicians of each hospital who took care of the confirmed COVID-19 patients. KNCCMC developed a standardized clinical record form (CRF) which was modified from the World Health Organization Global 2019-novel coronavirus clinical characterization CRF.16 Individual cases were reviewed and treatment and discharge plans were discussed during regular video conference calls three time a week. All of cases nationwide were enrolled in this study from the 1st to the 28th patient.
Smoking 5/27 (18.5)
https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e142

Update on 2020/04/11

Petrilli 2020:
The study was conducted at NYU Langone Health... We obtained data from the electronic health record (Epic Systems, Verona, WI), which is an integrated EHR including all inpatient and outpatient visits in the health system, beginning on March 1, 2020 and ending on April 2, 2020. Follow up was complete through April 7, 2020. A confirmed case of Covid-19 was defined as a positive result on real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab specimens. [...] Surprisingly, though some have speculated that high rates of smoking in China explained some of the morbidity in those patients, we did not find smoking status to be associated with increased risk of hospitalization or critical illness. This is consistent with a handful of other studies that have previously shown a lack of association of smoking with pulmonary disease- associated ARDS (i.e. from pneumonia), as compared with non-pulmonary sepsis-associatedARDS. 29
Not Hospitalized Not Critical Critical
Neveunknown 1746/2104 (83.0%) 695/932 (74.6%) 477/650 (73.4%)
Former 250/2104 (11.9%) 175/932 (18.8%) 145/650 (22.3%)
Current 108/2104 (5.1%) 62/932 (6.7%) 28/650 (4.3%)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1

Update on 2020/04/14

Similarity of the clinical symptoms to HAPE:
To begin with, in severe cases, both COVID-19 and HAPE exhibit a decreased ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (Pao2:FiO2 ratio) with concomitant hypoxia and tachypnea [4,5]. There also appears to be a tendency for low carbon dioxide levels in COVID-19 as the median partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) level was 34 mmHg (inter-quartile range: 30-38; normal range: 35-48) in a recent JAMA article describing 138 hospitalized cases [6]. Initial exposure to hypoxia at high altitude leads to an immediate increase in ventilation that blows off large quantities of carbon dioxide, producing hypocapnia as well [7]. Furthermore, blood gases of non-acclimatized mountaineers with severe illness were accompanied by a significant decrease in arterial oxygen due to an increase in alveolar- arterial oxygen difference, although herein arterial PaCO2 did not change significantly [8]. In short, hypoxia and hypocapnia are seen in both conditions, but there is more.
Radiologic findings of ground-glass opacities are present in up to 86% of patients with COVID- 19 with 76% having bilateral distribution and 33% peripheral [9]. Notably, lung cavitations, discrete pulmonary nodules, pleural effusions, and lymphadenopathy were absent [10]. In addition to this, patchy infiltrates are present [11]. Patients with HAPE also exhibit patchy infiltrates throughout the pulmonary fields, often in an asymmetric pattern and CT findings reveal increased lung markings and ground glass-like changes as well [12-14]. It has been shown that widespread ground-glass opacities are most commonly a manifestation of hydrostatic pulmonary edema and this is a central point to consider going forward [15].
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7096066/
Cigarettes as an aid to climbing Report, November 21 1922 Captain GJ Finch, who took part in the Mount Everest expedition, speaking at a meeting of the Royal Geographical Society, London, last evening on the equipment for high climbing, testified to the comfort of cigarette smoking at very high altitude. He said that he and two other members of the expedition camped at 25,000ft for over 26 hours and all that time they used no oxygen.
About half an hour after arrival he noticed in a very marked fashion that unless he kept his mind on the question of breathing, making it a voluntary process instead of an involuntary one, he suffered from lack of air. He had 30 cigarettes with him, and as a measure of desperation he lit one. After deeply inhaling the smoke he and his companions found they could take their mind off the question of breathing altogether … The effect of a cigarette lasted at least three hours, and when the supply of cigarettes was exhausted they had recourse to oxygen, which enabled them to have their first sleep at this great altitude.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/oct/17/sportandleisure.sport
AMS, according to the Lake Louise score, was significantly lower in smokers; the value was 14.9%, 95% CI (6.8 to 23.0%) in smokers and 29.4%, 95% CI (23.5 to 35.3%) in non-smokers with an adjusted OR of 0.54, 95% CI (0.31 to 0.97) independent of gender, age and maximum altitude reached. […] Probably because of its influence on the blood’s oxygen transport as well as through its effects on vasoconstriction, smoking is a protective factor for the onset of AMS.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28947454
Page 70 here shows ~4% of COVID-19 cases and 15% of deaths were smokers in France:
https://fr.calameo.com/read/0062175782dac24c23c92
Du 2020:
A prospective, single-center case series of 179 consecutive hospitalized patients from December 25 th , 2019 to February 7 th , 2020, with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, which is located in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital is situated in one of the endemic districts of COVID-19 outbreak and counts among the designated Hospitals assigned by the Chinese government.
Habitual Smoking Status
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3543584
Zhu 2020:
This retrospective study focused on the initial clinical features of patients with suspected COVID‐19 who presented to the ED of the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC and the Infectious Hospital of the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC for the first time between 24 January 2020 and 20 February 2020. Patients were considered as suspected to have COVID‐19 based on symptoms, exposure history, and guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection (trial version III) published by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.13 [...] There were 6 (19%) smokers among diagnosed patients and 13 (15%) among negative cases. [...] Smokers were equally distributed in both groups, indicating that smoking is not a specific risk factor for diagnosed patients. [...] The initial clinical features of patients suspected of having COVID‐19 in EDs outside Hubei were relatively mild.
Smokers
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25763
ISARIC 2020:
The results in this report have been produced using data from the ISARIC COVID-19 database. For information, or to contribute to the collaboration, please contact [email protected]. Up to the date of this report, data have been entered for 10363 individuals from 240 sites across 25 countries. We thank all of the data contributors for collecting standardised data during these extraordinary times. We plan to issue this report of aggregate data weekly for the duration of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. [Figure 17 shows the vast majority of patients were from the UK]
Smoking:
https://media.tghn.org/medialibrary/2020/04/ISARIC_Data_Platform_COVID-19_Report_8APR20.pdf
~14.4% of adults in the UK are current smokers:
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-smoking/statistics-on-smoking-england-2019
Dreher 2020:
For the present survey, the data of the first 50 patients hospitalized in the University Hospital Aachen from February to March 2020 with a positive SARS-CoV-2 result from initially obtained respiratory material were used
All Patients:
ARDS Patients:
Non-ARDS Patients:
https://www.aerzteblatt.de/archiv/213454

Update on 2020/04/15

Xi 2020:
A retrospective study investigating the epidemiological, clinical and virological features of COVID-19 in designated hospitals of Zhejiang province between Jan 17 and Feb 7, 2020 was performed, followed by calculating the period of positive nuclear acid of COVID-19 in our hospital. All patients were diagnosed as COVID-19 according to WHO interim guidance 17 . and the preliminary data were reported to the authority of Zhejiang province.[...] As shown in Table 1, 51.65% of the 788 enrolled patients were male, with low rate of smoking (6.85%).[...] The ZJ01 patient is male, 30y, and had neither smoking history nor any co-existing condition.
Current smoker: 54/788 (6.85%)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033944v2

Update on 2020/04/19

A small meta-analysis:
In conclusion, the results of this preliminary meta-analysis based on Chinese patients suggest that active smoking does not apparently seem to be signicantly associated with enhanced risk of progressing towards severe disease in COVID-19. https://www.ejinme.com/article/S0953-6205(20)30110-2/fulltext

Update on 2020/04/22

Smoking and MERS: Alraddadi 2016:
Primary MERS-CoV cases were defined as cases in persons without known exposure to other MERS-CoV cases or recent (within 14 days) exposure to healthcare settings (3,5). MERS-CoV case-patients meeting this definition were presumed to have acquired infection through nonhuman contact... For each case-patient, we randomly selected up to 4 neighborhood controls matched by age and sex. For case-patients 18 to <25 years old, controls were matched within 5 years of age, and for those >25 years old, controls were matched within 10 years of age...Case-patients also were more likely than controls to currently smoke tobacco (37% vs. 19%, OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.10–9.24).
11/30 patients were current smokers vs 22/116 controls
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4696714/
Seys 2018:
We provide evidence that DPP4 is upregulated in the lungs of smokers and COPD patients, which could partially explain why these individuals are more susceptible to MERS-CoV infection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108100/
The rate of current daily smokers was significantly lower in COVID-19 outpatients and inpatients (80.3% and 75.4%, respectively), as compared to that in the French general population with standardized incidence ratios according to sex and age of 0.197 [0.094 - 0.41] and 0.246 [0.148 - 0.408]. These ratios did not significantly differ between the two groups (P=0.63). Conclusions and relevance: Our cross sectional study in both COVID-19 out- and inpatients strongly suggests that daily smokers have a very much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to the general population.
https://www.qeios.com/read/article/574
A nicotinic hypothesis for Covid-19 with preventive and therapeutic implications
https://www.qeios.com/read/article/571
Liao 2020:
Using data from Sichuan Provincial Department of Health and the population-based multicentre cohort study, all microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 patients in Sichuan who met the national severe criteria were included from January 16 to March 15, 2020.
Current smoking * Total: 3/81 (3.7%)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3566160
submitted by mobo392 to COVID19 [link] [comments]

First Complete Working Theory for the Scent Dog Evidence

First Complete Working Theory for the Scent Dog Evidence

UNDER CONSTRUCTION: REVISION 7

PREAMBLE

My theory for the day of the murder is contained in my post "Requiem for Teresa". Please view that for prior context to this working theory timeline. At the start of this timeline, Ryan has assaulted Teresa in her driveway, driven her in her RAV4 to a remote place (nearer Shiocton then Manitowoc) and killed and cremated her. He has the cremains buried and the RAV4 stashed at least 60 miles west of the Avery Salvage yard.
Ryan had access to paperwork and Electronics from Teresa's RAV4 and thinks he's aware of where she was on 10/31 and the order of stops which is recorded by her camera's still photos. Ryan adds gas to the RAV4 from a gas can in a relative's garage.
On 11/03, Ryan went to Teresa's house and hacked on her computer. He called Cingular to get her call records and did some cold calls and some reverse look-ups on the phone numbers. He thought he had determined the address of Teresa's last stop, and he left the house prior to the arrival of CASO LE. Zellner proves this by pointing to phone records showing he calls Kelly P at 7:18 pm, and she is at Teresa's meaning Ryan is not. Ryan has gathered the cremains and is driving toward the Avery Auto Salvage Yard.

SCENT DOG EVIDENCE TIMELINE

11/03 PM - A civilian vehicle is seen behind Steven's home parked in the Kuss Road cul de sac with its tail lights facing Steven and the vehicle pointed to the northwest, because he pulled through the circle about 225 degrees. A cigarette smoking man, who is a member of the Rogue MTSO LEOs notices that Steven has seen his vehicle and kills the lights. Steven eventually leaves and the man receives a call from a lookout telling him they have turned left onto WI-147.
The man, who knows that Jodi is in jail, walks to Steven's residence and forces open the south front door to investigate Teresa Halbach's disappearance. Arrogantly, he smokes a cigarette, knowing that Steven will smell it and feel that they are right on top of him; he likes that. He leisurely searches the home, knowing his lookout will warn him with plenty of time when Steven returns. He comes to Steven's Laundry Room/Bathroom and notices a significant amount of blood on the sink. He picks up the blood with a syringe or pipette and a couple of evidence swabs, keeping each drop separately.
"We've got him!", thinks the cigarette smoking man.

11/03 PM, Later - Ryan drives to the Kuss Rd cul de sac with Teresa cremains. He visits the Avery Salvage Yard via the path shown in Loof Track Three. Ryan leaves a scent trail from cul de sac to Steven's home, and across the front of his home, where he checks the address. Ryan then proceeds to stake out the Janda/Dassey home. Ryan plants cremains in the Janda Burn Barrels and quickly returns to the Kuss Road cul de sac, where he buries the majority of the cremains at the Kuss Rd Burial Site. However, Ryan unexpectedly planted the evidence at the wrong address due to the AutoTrader paperwork that referenced B. Janda and his reverse phone lookup of Teresa's call to the Janda/Dassey answering machine.

11/04 AM - Ryan brought the RAV4 to the ASY with a second driver in a White Jeep (Tara, Chad or Jason). They entered the vicinity by driving past Wilmer S's home. They parked in the woods up a path to the right.They rendezvous and try to bring the RAV4 up the more northern side of the conveyor road, which looked clearer, but its blocked by a red Pinto Station Wagon. They damage the front left turn signal of the RAV4 in its vicinity within the ASY. They policed the damage parts, stopping the RAV4 and opening the front seat doors and the cargo door. This left scent that later attracted the scent dog and three cadaver dogs that alerted there. Ryan later lies about the turn signal damage, that definitely occurred recently, because the exposed parts of the RAV4 are clean.
They back tracked and took the south lane of the conveyor road. They moved a tire out of the way leaving tracks in the mud and continued. When they got to the location that was blocked by cars, they drove on the muddy shoulder on the right, which splashed mud on the RAV4. They drove it a little further on conveyor road and turned right and then planted the RAV4 at the location by the pond. They camouflaged the RAV4 to make it look like Steven had hidden it.
Also during that trip on 11/04 AM, after planting the car, they reentered Radandt Quarry and parked at a safe distance at the common parking spot that they used for both visits recorded by Loof Track Four. From this location Ryan walked to Kuss Rd cul de sac and then down to Steven's Burn Barrel, where he quickly planted the burnt cell phone, camera and PDA and then left the way he came. Ryan's reason for the second planting was to correct the mistake he made by planting the cremains at the wrong address on 11/3. The reason he planted electronics is that the cremains were already buried at the Kuss Road burial site.

11/04 PM, later that same day, Ryan tells Mike H that he thinks he or another search party member found the RAV4 on the perimeter of the ASY while snooping around the evening of 11/03. I believe this was why he chose to plant the RAV4 at a location on the perimeter of the yard.Next, Ryan encourages Mike H to contact LE, and they both agree to return to the RAV4's location and verify the finding for LE. Ryan and Mike H drive to Radandt Quarry and park in the same place Ryan did with the Jeep driver on 11/04 in the AM. Ryan and Mike H walk to the RAV4 location, look at it with flashlights or floodlights (Chuck's headlights in the pit), and communicate with LE using 21 NO CALL ID, type 'D' calls. They finish up at 7:25 pm.

11/04 PM - Since the 11/04 Flyover video failed to secure a warrant on 11/04, Ryan H, Mike H and LE hatch the Pam-of-God Scheme for the next morning. Pam, who has a private detective license and a preexisting relationship with LE, will pretend to be just another search party member. Ryan will give her a Digital SLR camera and Sheriff Pagel's direct line so she can photograph the RAV4 before making contact with the police. Pam attends the morning search party briefing, but arrives late. Ryan later lies, saying she was the only one who asked to visit the ASY; several other searchers are there in the morning revealing his lie. Police reports indicate that there was a morning meeting on 11/05 to brief search party members on proper protocol for searching the ASY.

11/04 PM to 11/05 AM, 15 hour opportunity to plant blood. After Ryan and Mike H have verified the identity of the RAV4 in the ASY, starting at about 7:30 pm on 11/04, Law Enforcement is aware of the RAV4's location. LE makes arrangements for the Rogue MTSO Cops to watch the vehicle overnight.The Rogue cops approach the RAV4 and break-in using their lockout tools, which include a wedge, a "slim jim", an air wedge, and a long "big easy" stick. The cops damage the wiper edge of the driver's door weatherstripping with a wedge and a "slim jim", and they damage the rear driver side door with a wedge and an air wedge. They succeed in making forced entry into the vehicle by one of these means. Once in the vehicle, they open the rear passenger side door and enter the vehicle with the blood from there, planting blood first by the ignition switch and then along the path from that location to the door they entered.
The cops may disable the battery, to prevent the vehicle from being moved.Rogue police returned to RAV4 later on that night or early morning the next day and replaced the battery to get some part of the car to work and planted blood in RAV4 after learning its location from Ryan.

11/05 AM - We're told the holy spirit leads Pam to the RAV4, but her lack of acting talent betrays her. Pam phones Pagel and they make arrangements to start the charade of the Dispatch call. Pam next calls dispatch and follows her talking points to make sure its seems like Law Enforcement was not involved.Next, the police take custody of yard in force and suspicious things happen. Rogue Police may have planted blood while hiding the RAV4 with a tarp, or after Remiker and Colborn swab Steven's sink for blood. The actual departure time of Truck with the RAV4 Trailer is reported as 8:25pm but they arrive in Madison (3.0 to 3.5 hours away) an hour late at 1:15 am the next day.
Blood was in Avery's sink all day and some was later collected as evidence on 11/8 or 9. Remiker forces entry to Avery's home with Steier at 3:48pm. Remiker, Colborn and Tyson all access Steven's bathroom between 3:48pm at 8:44pm. On 11/8, the blood was not visible to the naked eye, but was revealed by using a special light with luminol and then phenolphthalein.
Lenk specifically searched the bathroom at 8:04pm and did not report the blood in the sink and on the vanity to his CASO partner. We know because it's not in his police report. In fact, Lenk didn't write any police reports other than one summarizes the discovery of "the magic key".Police reports say the wrecker driver found the doors to the RAV4 locked around 6:40pm to 7:00pm, but Groffy reports that he received the RAV4 with its driver door unlocked at the WI SCL when he is called in on Sunday 11/6 and arrives "mid morning". This might put the break-in and planting on 11/5 after the police take custody of the yard, during a narrow time frame which includes Lenk searching Steven's bathroom sink.

11/07 AM - Police discover the Kuss Road burial site when a civilian searcher reports it to Bushman. Rogue MTSO Cops Lenk and Colborn arrive with CASO LEO Tyson and lead the digging at the burial site, according to Tyson's police report in the CASO. At trial, Ertl implies he led the digging though his testimony is careful not to say that directly. The involvement of Lenk and Colborn is hidden from the jury.At 4:51 pm, Ertl examines the peat moss bag at the bottom of the hole, sees that its old due to roots growing out of it, and calls off the dogs, because there is no recognizable body at that site. However he may have initially missed the cremains in the dirt they were shoveling. Lenk and Colborn did not. They offer to fill in the hole while the rest of the circus at Kuss Road disperses. They hatch a plan to tie Avery's burn pit to the cremains.

Also at 11/07 AM - Ryan H and Scott B meet briefly with Sheriff Pagel to check in and share their plans for the Search Party. They agree to search the field directly to the north of the ASY. The field is adjacent to the fence line on the south side of Avery road. While working with the search party, Ryan sneaks over to the fence line and tosses the folded License Plates into the Station Wagon's open window to the back seat.

11/08 AM, before dusk - The Rogue MTSO Cops now separate out a portion of the cremains and ash from the excavated dirt at the Kuss Road burial site. One Rogue LEO plant these cremains in Steven Avery's burn pit (the upper portion of Loof Track Six). The track seems to show the Rogue Officer hiding in the berm for quite some time, showing that the CASO officer on guard was not in on the plot.Strangely, the Rogue Cops decide to move the rest of the dirt, fire ash and cremains from the Kuss Road burial site to the County Quarry and they dump it in two or three large piles. I think they moved the cremains away from Kuss Road to save face with their initial faux pas of telling everyone nothing was found at the burial site. If the cremains were later found by the search dogs, it would be a loss of face (a humiliation and a disgrace) for the officers who excavated the site and didn't notice the cremains. Their solution was to move the excavated dirt, fire ash and cremains to the County Quarry.

CONCLUSION

This working theory covering the scent dog tracks is very close to being a "Theory of Everything" or ToE. The only major pieces not accounted for are the planting of "the magic key", "the magic bullet fragment" and "the magic hood latch swab DNA". There is adequate evidence to show that the first two items were planted by the Rogue MTSO policemen, including major roles for our terrific trio of Colborn, Lenk and Remiker.
The last major piece of planted evidence is "the magic hood latch swab DNA". Here, the major suspects are Wiegert and Fassbender, who were involved in the DNA collection for Steven, and had the best opportunity to pull a swab swap. I don't see how the Rogue MTSO cops had opportunity for this event. Apparently proving Brendan's false confession was true was very important to them. I hope they get a chance to think about it from the inside of a jail cell.

https://preview.redd.it/omn6mm14j0m41.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=73cab92ba4f25f3f161efc0bea3d3181028c140e
https://preview.redd.it/6x0o18g5hom41.png?width=1001&format=png&auto=webp&s=0dfb09eaa9f489e5087fc9f4e17952d4560a6bbf
https://preview.redd.it/nnngyxngyvk41.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=50219a15577115acd1851e77ecfdba360e6a8492
https://preview.redd.it/o0soe6p6yvk41.png?width=1006&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b29ac942b1fa963b6248e6a5a89a824077c7aac
https://preview.redd.it/o4gpyv03yvk41.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cbccf83c799bb5911c587c969feedc1351849bf

The Mystery of the Janda Burn Barrels

The Mystery of K9 Loof Track Four

The Planting of the Blood

I am strongly leaning toward Ryan not being the one that planted the blood.
His plan was good. Plant a small remnant of the cremains in a burn barrel with trash, and bury the rest of the cremains on another property. This makes it look like she was killed and cremated at Avery's home and Avery tried to move all the cremains off his property. Only a small remnant was left, and he managed to get that in his burn barrel.
Ryan also planned to plant the RAV4 on the property the next morning. While the blood increased likelihood of an Avery conviction, it didn't add much to the equation for Ryan, and it involved significant risk.
Ryan already had Steven well framed. Why would he risk breaking into house where people have firearms to find something to plant in the RAV4. Maybe he cased enough to be sure was empty, but it just doesn't seem smart. I think he left shortly after he planted the bones in the Janda Burn Barrels (I say barrels because K9 Brutus alerted on two barrels, not because LE found anything in two barrels).
Kratz and the state, and especially the Rogue LEOs of MTSO, had the most to gain by planting the blood. So "Cui Bono", who does it benefit? Law enforcement had ample opportunity and much less risk to get the blood out of the sink.
Remiker, et al, breakdown the door to Steven's house to do a 10 minute search and leave the door broken at 4:00 pm on 11/05. Blood is in the sink and the RAV4 is in the yard until 8:45 pm, and it shows up late at WI SCL in Madison, so a rendezvous could have been arranged.
How do we know blood was in the sink. Because the CASO says Remiker, Colborn and Tyson collected it that evening around 8:44. They convenient took no before photos. Two of the five swabs submitted from that area tested positive for Steven Avery's by DNA analysis.
Also Lenk searched the house during the 4:00 pm to 8:45 pm window.
Why is it always Remiker (bullet, blood), Lenk (key, bullet and blood) and Colborn (key and blood)?
Perhaps the weakest argument in Zellner's Denny case against Ryan is stealing the blood. I think I can make a stronger one against the Rogue Cops of MTSO.

The Planting of Cremains in Steven Avery's Burn Pit

The motive for Ryan to dig up the cremains at Kuss Road and move them just isn't there. Kuss Road was crawling with LEOs on 11/7 and the path to plant the bones was crawling with scent dogs.
Kratz has witnesses putting a fire in the burn pit or barrel. Kratz wants the burn pit tied to the cremains, not Ryan. But why didn't the LEOs just move a little bit to the burn pit and admit finding the rest of the cremains at the Kuss Road burial site. There were scent dog tracks there and cadaver dog alerts.
As I see it, Rogue LEOs had to lie about Kuss Road because they had reported "Nothing to see here" too widely, before they recognized that cremains were mixed in with the dirt they dug up. So they dumped the bones they could easily find in Avery's burn pit, and they dumped the rest of the dirt, fire ash and cremains in the two piles at County Quarry. They never expected those piles to be discovered.
The question is, how did the Rogue LEOs leave an extraordinarily strong scent trail that K9 Loof would follow? I'm researching this, but my initial ideas are that the Rogue LEO who dug up the mud in the Kuss Road Burial Site may have gotten secondary transfer from Ryan who dug the pit or from less burned parts of the cremains. The loam and peat moss may have been ideal for bacteria to grow from these scent sources.
For this working theory, I believe LE planted the bones in Steven's pit. The activity is very implausible for Ryan, who would be in the middle of LEOs and scent dogs. If I find an explanation in the literature for the scent trail, that will strengthen this case.
------
The "very intense" scent from JR's trailer to Kuss Rd. and the excavation site that Colborn and Lenk shoveled up before claiming it "was not pertinent to this case."

Assisting the WI State Crime Lab

At 3:08 p.m. on 11/07/05, the trio again left Barb's residence and all of them were requested back to the "suspicious incident" area near Kuss Rd. where the Wisconsin State Crime Lab was on scene. Lenk, Colborn and Tyson "began digging up the area" after the State Crime Lab had finished their photography, and quickly dismissed the area as any crime scene or affiliation with the Halbach case. Upon receiving their report, Dedering removed the crime scene tape and opened the area back up.
Sgt. Bill Tyson's Supplemental Report on 11/07/05 (CASO pg. 134):
After clearing from BARBARA JANDA's residence, we were notified the WI STATE CRIME LAB was on scene on Kuss Rd. and we were requested to come back to the area to assist the WI STATE CRIME LAB.Upon our arrival, the potential area of suspicion had been blocked off by crime scene tape and I did check in with Inv. DEDERING. I notified him that Set. COLBORN, Lt. LENK and I would be entering the crime scene area to assist the WI STATE CRIME LAB. It shall be noted **this was an area that was discovered earlier in the day by search volunteers who had located an area approximately three feet by three feet that appeared to be disturbed soil.**After the photography by the WI STATE CRIME LAB was completed, Lt. LENK, Sgt. COLBORN and I began digging up the area and quickly found out this was not a possible grave or burial site. Upon reporting those findings to Inv. DEDERING, the crime scene tape had been removed and the area was reopened.
In Dedering's own report from 11/07 (CASO pg. 137) , he confirms that he "was notified [by Lenk/Colborn/Tyson] the excavation area was not pertinent to this case" at 4:51 p.m. that same day. This possible suspicious area was taped off and restricted from 10:45 a.m. until 4:51 p.m. on 11/07, approximately six hours.
Updated theory shared with Zellner Law.
Excerpt from my Email to Zellner Law.
------
Questions from Skippy:

I think the planter of the blood is not the same person who killed TH.
My current lead theory is the Rogue MTSO LEOs: Colborn, Lenk and Remiker. I have identified several periods of opportunity that Zellner didn't consider. I will post something on this when I have it worked out a little more.

You need more than one person to locate the RAV4 on the ASY /white jeep.
My lead theories for Lt. White Jeep are Sister Tara, her husband Chad, or Chad's Brother Jason. I have a twitter thread on this with lots more detail.

Who gave the LE the shoes? Do we know the size ?
My belief is Ryan gave LE the shoes the early morning of 11/7. I have researched it and reviewed the CASO dispatch logs. It is difficult to establish who in CASO brought them over that morning. If it was much before 6:30am when Scott went to work, it might have been Scott. Ryan was living in Teresa's living space, so he would been more likely to have contaminated the shoes.

Why did RH move to TH´s house? Could it be he knows there are dogs?
He did this before he knew anything about the bloodhounds. CASO arranges the first bloodhound visit on 11/7. Ryan moved in on 11/3. His motive was to control access to Teresa's computer and her home. He may receive a phone call on 11/6 or 11/7 asking him to find a suitable scent article. It doesn't make sense that he would contaminate it with his own scent on purpose.

Why did KK lie about RH?
In my working theory, Ryan tells Mike H that he found the RAV4 on the perimeter of the ASY on 11/3, and talks Mike H into approaching LE about it. The 21 NO CALL ID, type 'D' phone calls occur between 3:15 pm and 7:15 pm on 11/4. I believe Ryan and Mike H go back to the location of the RAV4, while talking to police on the phone. They confirm its location then.
At this point, Ryan, Mike H and the state actors are in a conspiracy together. They hatch the Pam of God scheme to get them on the ASY with a search warrant, but by doing so, they are compromised before Ryan. After this point they are all singing Ryan's praises.

What about the tower she pinged in Whitelaw, WI? How does that fit in?
If she drove on 147 to I-43 should could have pinged Whitelaw Tower when she was near or on the Highway headed to US-10. She may have preferred taking US-10. It went through several towns where she may have had errands to run.
The faster route is almost exclusively through farmland.
The tower she pinged is at US-10 and I-43.
https://www.google.com/maps/di3637+County+Road+B,+Hilbert,+WI/Avery's+Auto+Salvage,+12930+Avery+Rd,+Two+Rivers,+WI+54241/@44.2131975,-88.2284292,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x8803a6c5a54a1ecf:0x16b3d05de3775ec5!2m2!1d-88.2209212!2d44.1694265!1m5!1m1!1s0x88032f8641fb3e73:0xb85fa553298bb0bf!2m2!1d-87.6905912!2d44.2545967!3e0
This route would also take her closer to Whitelaw Tower:
https://www.google.com/maps/di3637+County+Road+B,+Hilbert,+WI/Avery's+Auto+Salvage,+12930+Avery+Rd,+Two+Rivers,+WI+54241/@44.1638843,-88.1170347,56771m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m19!4m18!1m10!1m1!1s0x8803a6c5a54a1ecf:0x16b3d05de3775ec5!2m2!1d-88.2209212!2d44.1694265!3m4!1m2!1d-87.8522543!2d44.2252839!3s0x880317fe543bff97:0xccc8e7b1858cf9c4!1m5!1m1!1s0x88032f8641fb3e73:0xb85fa553298bb0bf!2m2!1d-87.6905912!2d44.2545967!3e0
submitted by magilla39 to TickTockManitowoc [link] [comments]

OBLIGATORY FILLER MATERIAL – Just take a hard left at Daeseong-dong…2

Continuing
“Perhaps that might actually work better.” Agent Rack agrees, after all, he’s been looking at the list of team members and their departure points. I’m the only one from the Middle East, the rest are from Russia, Europe, or places way up north.
“Rack, let me look at the grouping of team members”, I say, “There’s got to be something better than your fly and schlep scheme.”
‘Fine, Doctor. It is, after all, your project.” Agent Rack relates, “Email me with your updated ideas and itinerary.” He says and hangs up.
“Damn”, I snipe, “I knew I should have asked for more than 3x my day rate. No trip is worth this much all fired ready aggravation…”
I get a new cigar, refresh my Greenland coffee, and get to the list of folks I’ll be working with for the next few weeks.
“Sindy?”, I ask my computer, “Open ‘Agent Rack mail #2’ please”.
There’s a grinding of hard drives, satellites are linking up in outer space, computer banks at NASA are lighting off. There's a teletype in Virginia annoyed at being awoken at this ungodly early hour.
A few minutes later, I am reading over my list. Quite the collection.
Two geologists: A Russian, Dr. Morskoy Utes, and a Brit, Dr. Clifford Swandon.
Two geophysicists: A Russian, Dr. Volna Sglazhivaniye, and one Swede, Dr. Aktiv Vågformme.
Two Reservoir Engineers: An Dutch, Dr. Vijver Monteur, and Portuguese, Dr. Graciano Guimarães.
One geomechanic: A Bulgarian, Dr. Iskren Dragomirov Dinev .
Two geochemists: A Canadian, ‘eh, Dr. Erlen Meyer, and a Russian, Dr. Academician Ivan Ivanovich Khimik.
One Petroleum Technologist: A Finn, Dr. Joonatan Vedenalaiset
And one Petrophysicist: A Canadian, Dr. Dax Aceron
And yours truly, Dr. Rocknocker, The Motherfucking Pro from Dover, makes for 12.
Such a nice, round, woody number.
OK, let’s see, before we get to particulars.
Countries of origin: Russia, England, Sweden, USA by way of the Middle East, Finland, Bulgaria, and Canada.
All northern hemispherical types; for the most part.
Great. We can all meet in London and fly British Airways directly to Beijing. Then, it’s Air China to Pyongyang. Besides, I’ll still get my frequent flyer miles and I don’t want to fly Aeroflot if I can avoid it.
I send Agent Rack an Email defining my ideas. He writes back within an hour OK’ing the plan. He will make plans for all of us to meet in London, spend a night at the airport Hilton Garden Inn, then off to Beijing. Then, after a quick layover, on to Pyongyang, Best Korea.
To history. And beyond!
However, there are a few logistical problems that need to be overcome.
With this Cheap-Ass Mexican Beer virus crisis, there’s no flights out of my present home country.
How will Esme make it back to the states and I to London, where there, at least, they’re a bit less ridiculously paranoid, and I can catch a commercial flight out to China?
Calling Agent Rack and Ruin…
With a bit of Agency of intervention, Esme and I are to be transported via one of the military’s flying war machines. It will deposit Esme in Abu Dhabi where she will catch a direct flight to the Windy City.
They say they may slow down before they kick me out in Dubai to catch the BA flight to London. They already know me from previous adventures.
There. All done and dusted. I love flying first class, as it were.
Now, logistics.

Esme is packed and ready to go in less than an hour. Most of her luggage is stuffed with gifts and other sorts of Middle Eastern tat for the folks back home. We haven’t been back to the states in quite some time; there will be much rejoicing.
However, I will have to hear of it second hand. I’m going to Best Korea and have no idea what the climate’s like other than its Oriental Continental. Most of North Korea is classified as being of a humid continental climate within the Köppen climate classification scheme, with warm summers and cold, dry winters.
Currently in the upper teens centigrade, winds light and variable 10 to 130 kilometers per hour, it’ll be a nice day if the tornadoes stay away.
Well now, that’s like mail from home. Equable weather in an unequable land.
Hawaiian shirts? The most garish. Exploration vest? Of course. Field boots? But of course. Ah, hell, the usual travel wardrobe. Into the silver aluminum travel cases go the Scottish high-calf woolen socks, Stetson, cargo shorts, one pair of long chinos, the usual undergarments, spare lighters, cigar-cutters, emergency flasks, flint and steel (just in case), generic Northern European Armed-Services knife with built-in cigar cutter, a couple of fueled Zippos, a couple of different sized Cow-Hide Men tools, a handful of cheap-o butane lighters, bags of beef and camel jerky…just the absolute necessities.
In my day pack, which never leaves my side, are my cigars, cigarettes for gifts, some emergency rations; like a spare pint of bourbon, one of vodka, and some Dammitol in case of headaches. Plus, field notebooks, pens, pencils, hand lens, various geological-geophysical cheat sheets, tickets, visas, tourist passes, and all that other world-traveling guff.
Looks like we’re both ready to travel. I get on the horn with one or the other of my favorite agency denizens and tell them we’re ready to go.
Agent Ruin notes positive and tells us he’ll dispatch our transport to the airport forthwith.
I’m out in front of our villa and the whole city is a god damned ghost town. Virtually no road traffic and absolutely no air traffic. It’s eerily quiet. The whole city’s taking a siesta. Or in a coma…hard to tell which.
I’m scanning the roads looking for our taxi to the airport when the still silence of the scene is split by the sonorous resonant THUMP-THUMP-THUMP-THUMP of a heavy helicopter.
Not just any “Oh, look, Mummy. Up in the sky”, helicopter.
This is a huge black US military transport helicopter and it’s FUCKING LANDING IN THE EMPTY LOT ACROSS THE STREET.
Remind me to be slightly nice to the collective agents next time we meet.
Once the sand, grime, and assorted desert dust settles down, I’m locking the villa as two Airmen are storing our luggage aboard the large black ominous-looking black transport black helicopter.
They escort Esme and me to the passenger compartment. They could see me being crestfallen when they refused to let me ride up front. I mean, I am a fully licensed helicopter pilot.
“Oh, insurance rules and stuff. Right”.
We don our new 3M™ Peltor™ Hummingbird™ Headsets and are asked, very nicely, to strap in as in mere moments, we will be taking off for the local airport.
I smile at Esme and beam: “I told ya’. Stick with me and you’ll go places.”
The way she smiled back at me sustained me throughout my trip above the 38th parallel. I resolved to do my damnedest to bring her back something very nice.
With a smooth, graceful leap due up, we’re airborne. The few neighbors that came out to see us off waved briefly and rapidly became as ants as we titled forward, opened the taps, and hauled ass to the local International airport.
No “International or Business” this time. We landed way the holy earthenware fuck over on the north side of the airport. That clandestine place where all the strange and secretive military aircraft were parked and surreptitiously maintained.
We flared in and, light as an anvil landed. We waited the proscribed few minutes while the airship spooled down and we were allowed egress.
Out of the chopper, across 150 meters of tarmac and into the waiting abdomen of a Lockheed C-130 Hercules. Our luggage was already being stowed in the belly the beast, and we were ushered into the cavernous interior of the plane.
This plane, as I was told, could carry up to 90 passengers, 72 troops, or 65 paratroops.
Today, it would carry Esme, me, and a skeleton crew to Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
We’d be landing first at Abu Dhabi to get Esme sorted out, then wheels up for approximately 5 air-minutes, then back to feet dry at Dubai International Airport. There I would be unceremoniously tossed off the plane and left to my own devices.
The flight crew were fully briefed and truth be told, I’d met several of them in varying circumstances over the years. They knew I was mostly harmless, but somewhat of an eccentric VIP, hence the flight, and they gave me no end of shit about it.
For that, I really appreciated and liked these guys and gals.
I walked Esme to the local international airline's flight desk in Abu Dhabi, business, of course, and deposited her luggage.
“Guess this is it, hon. Have a great time in the States and don’t let the Covids bite. Be sure to give the girls my love.”
“When will you be back, so I can plan my return trip?” Es askes.
“No earthly idea. It could be a month, could be three. I’ll get word to your mother, you guys will be checking in with her all the time anyways. Let’s play it loose and have some fun with all this. Now, off to the Lounge with you; get a massage, and relax. You’ve got 8 hours to burn before you even load up.” I said.
We embrace, kiss smoochily, even though we could get put away for PDA (Public Display of Affection) which is still a misdemeanor here in the lovely, cosmopolitan Middle East; an electric courtesy cart arrives to take Es to the combined Emirates First and Business Class lounge.
“See you soonest”, I say as the cart whisks her away. She waves and tries to camouflage her wiping her eyes. She’s always emotional before I travel to strange places around the globe.
I saunter out the door and back across the tarmac to my transport ship. I’m getting this Captain Kirk vibe being the only one being transported on the flight, and decide to christen the Herkybird “The Enterprise”.
Now, do I go all Bill Shatner or Patrick Stewart?
I arrive at the loading platform and there are a couple of airmen lolling around smoking cigarettes. They’re well away from the aircraft and legal, although I thought the military would have kittens if they knew of this.
I have some 5 hours to kill before my flight to London. I wander over to chat with the airmen and fire up a cigar. Since we’re probably not going to be leaving for a few hours, I offer them tots from one of my emergency flasks.
But, with the Modelo Virus about, one airman begs off and returns moments later with some small, disposable paper Dixie cups.
Necessity, the mother of invention.
We chatted, swapped stories, and they were amazed that I was actually looking forward to going to Best Korea.
They basically informed me that was a post no one wanted. It was a place where one went to watch their military career die.
It was tedious, yet tense.
Important, yet mundane.
Above all, it was massively boring.
Nothing of any substance even happened there and one hoped for that to continue. Yet, some long stripers would relate that even a small thermonuclear exchange would be welcomed to break up the tedium.
I parted with a couple of cigars as we felt and heard the engines of the Hercules being rekindled back into life.
We all scurried onto the plane and after some preliminary warnings, we were wheels up and headed to Dubai International Airport.
And then we were taxiing to the VIP arrivals terminal some 8 minutes later.
Fuck, I hate these long flights. Sure, I could have cabbed it from Abu Dhabi to Dubai, but they were headed this way anyways, so…
Into the arrivals area with all my baggage and a very nice US female airman accompanying me to the British Airways desk. She was wheeling my gear. I felt like such a cad, but I rapidly got over it.
We were at check-in, she made certain I had my passport, visas, tourist and landing cards, and everything else necessary for the trip.
“Yes, thank you, Sr. Airman Mother”, I joked.
She actually blushed a bit. I could have been her grandfather.
Gad. I hated writing that sentence.
She made certain everything was A-OK and a go. We shook hands, and she departed back to the waiting Hercules and back to their local home here in the maddening Middle East.
The airport was dead. Really dead. In fact, I’ve never seen it deader. Call in the bulldozers. Turn this place into a parking lot…
Dubai International is usually a fucking madhouse. It has always been nuts - a shopping mall trying to be an airport. Today, one could have held RC plane flight races around every concourse.
No weird-ass disenfranchised form god-knows-where bums out bothering and panhandling you. No madding crowds trying to sweep you against your will to a far and distant, not to mention, unusable, terminal. Duty-Free shops. Some closed, but the cigar and booze kiosks are open.
Whew. That’s a relief.
I’m checked in flight-wise and the nice BA gate person has to ask me why I’m going where my baggage says I am.
“I’m an agent of the United States, on a super-secret mission to find oil and gas in the best Korea on the planet.”
Her look and raised eyebrow said “Oh, pooh.”, although she smiled and said “Ah. That’s nice.”
Hey. I was telling the truth…
Well, I had some time in an almost deserted airport with a load of pre-flight cash, a hungry look in my eye, and a cheeseburger in my pocket; but that latter story will have to wait for a later time.
My bags were ostensibly ticketed to Pyongyang, but also Beijing. I’d have to check and see if they got transferred to Air China once we arrived. No worries, we should have plenty of layover time in China.
So, off to a leisurely stroll through Duty-Free.
“Oh, this looks nice. Oh. And this. Hmmm…Wild Turkey 101 Rye. That’s a two’fer. Ah, here’s the Duty-Free humidor. Camachos? By the Great Horn Spoon! They have triple maduros. 4 boxes of these go in the cart.” I giggled like a giddy old aunt.
A few bundles of cheap-ass cigars to use as gifts and bribes. Oh, yes. They love to smoke cigarettes in Best Korea. I load up three cartons of Sobranie pastel-colored Cocktail cigarettes.
At least, this way I’d know in an instant who I’ve already graced with my munificence.
Thus sated, I pay for my prizes, and decide to wander off to the Business Class lounge. I have hours left and well, boredom was settling in.
Or, I could go, as I have for years, to the Irish Pub, have a pint of nitrogen-charged Guinness, a bowl of ‘authentic’ Irish Stew and a nice smoke afterwards. I think it’s one of the few places left on the planet where you can actually sit at a bar, have a drink, and smoke without everyone going all C. Everett Koop on your hapless ass.
Oh, sure. In Business class everything’s free. At the Irish Pub, I’d have to pay.
Fuck it. I made a beeline to the Irish Pub.
It’s damn near-deserted. So much so, in fact, I’m seated immediately.
This is odd. It’s never happened before. This place is usually SRO.
Of course, I order a nitrogen-charged pounder of Guinness, a bowl of Irish Stew, a side of their famous real onion rings and a couple of shots of genuine rye whiskey just because.
Sated to the gills, I was feeling fine as I watch the abbreviated sports review on the telly. I dug deep into my recent purchases and drag out a triple maduro Camacho cigar.
No, I’m not shilling for Camacho cigars, they’re just one of my favorite go-to brands. However, if there’s anyone out there that’s affiliated with Camacho cigars, or Wild Turkey Rye and Bourbon, I’d certainly listen to any ideas you might have for sponsorship of this little forum.
Anyways, I was talking with the Sri Lankan bartender, Tharushi. I was, of course, regaling him with one of my endless supply of rude and ribald jokes when I hear a voice say:
“Why don't you save that rapier-like wit for the cheeseheads back home, Rock?
“Tharushi, did I ever tell you of the frustrated petrophysicist Dr. Dax Aceron who’s legendary prowess with a fishing rod is such that he couldn’t catch a cold buck-naked, sitting in a freezer with his feet in a bucket of Moscow river water?”
“Dr. Dax? How the hell are you?” I spin to see my old petrophysical buddy from many long best-forgotten global campaigns.
“Dr. Rock. I am doing fine. Better than fine. I’m going to Best Korea and I know personally the team leader. How the hell are you, you old troublemaker?”
“Dax. What are you doing here? I thought we’d meet up in London.”
“Yeah, that was the plan”, he explained, “I let them think I was still in Calgary. I was actually over here in Dubai doing a little side work. Totally under the table. Completely off the books. You know, the usual. Now give me a cigar and buy me a drink. I do believe it’s your round.”
“So, Dax”, I say, “Flying BA to London in”, as I look at my watch, “three and a half hours?”
“Yeah.” He halfheartedly replies.
“Problem? “I ask.
“Yeah”, he snorts, “Going baggage class. Can’t afford Business. Work’s been kinda thin on the chin lately.”
“Pish and tiddle”, I reply, “Tharushi, please call the BA front desk for me, if you would”, as I slide a US$20 across the bar.
“Yes sir, Doctor Rock, sir!” he rapidly replies.
<RINGRINGRING> “BA front desk”.
“Yes, hello. This is Dr. Rocknocker. I’m sending over one Dr. Dax Aceron with my BA Rhodium Thunder Frequent Flyers card. Please upgrade him to Business on BA Flight 106 to London departing in some 3.5 hours. My security code is <mumblemumblemumble>. Got that? Great. Thank you.”
“Here Dax”, as I hand him my frequent flyer's card, “Go to the BA desk and get yourself upgraded. I’ll sit here and keep the bar from running away. Now, begone with thee.”
Dr. Dax is all smiles as he lights off for the BA desk.
Oh, I could have gone and handled it all, but there was this one crucial problem.
I didn’t want to.
I order another Guinness and light up my cigar anew. This already had the earmarks of an epic adventure.
After a beer or eight and associated shots, I pour Dr. Dax into the courtesy cart and we’re whisked off to our departure gate. Normally, this would take full portions of an hour, the crowds would be so thick. Today, we’re at the most distal of the departure gates and we made it there from the Irish Pub in less than 7 minutes.
The plane was mostly empty. The ground crew did a desultory check of our passport and visas and told us basically to ‘sit wherever you want’.
“We’re already business class.” I replied.
“I hope someone else was buying your tickets.” Was the response.
Dax and I got to our Business Class seats and get comfortable.
We looked around and First Class was full, Business Class had one or two open seats and coach? Well, pretty much empty except for those souls who wanted a whole row to themselves to rack out on the upcoming 7.5-hour journey.
I asked if could get my Dr. Dax Business Class upgrade miles back.
The flight attendant said that ‘she’ll see’. It was more of a rhetorical question, based on the absurdity of international flights these days of scary infectious diseases and global idiocy.
The plane was probably 1/5th full. If we played our cards right and Dr. Dax and I could have our own private airline cabin attendant.
With a minimum of fuss and puling, after the obligatory “Please. Just sit back, enjoy our flight and don’t do anything stupid” lectures, in English, Arabic, and Dutch for some reason, we pushed back, rolled out and were heading off to our take-off position.
It’s Zombie Apocalypse time out here; without the drooling creatures lusting for brains; which is odd, even for Dubai. The airport’s dead, few ground vehicles scurrying around, and very, very few planes doing much of anything. We rolled into takeoff position, sat for less than a full minute, and suddenly went 110% throttle.
“Adios, Dubai. See you on the flip side.” I said to no one in particular, saluting the city one digit at a time.
We were wheels up so fast, I didn’t even get the obligatory “Welcome aboard, Dr. Rock, here’s your complimentary pre-takeoff drink”.
I sought to alleviate that sordid situation straightaway.
We leveled out and were headed generally north-northwestward when I waylaid the unsuspecting cabin-crew worker.
“Hello. How are we today? Good. Good. Might I trouble you for a drink?” I asked, sweeter than 1.23 kilos of jaggery.
“You’ll get a drink when I’m good and ready to get you a drink”, she barked back like an Alligator Snapping turtle with tertiary clap and barbed-wire undies.
“Now, now. See here, Miss. There’s no reason for all this. All I’d like is...” I tried to continue.
“Yeah. We know. ‘Vodka. Ice. Sliced limes. Bitter Lemon’, right? We’ll you’ll get that when I get around to it. Not before.” She snarled back.
“Evidently my reputation does precede me,” I said, somewhat perplexed and a bit miffed. I never am nasty to those who serve my alcohol, so I was genuinely perplexed at this turn of affairs.
“Yeah”, I hear a familiar voice from the back of the plane, “Everyone in existence knows of the one and only Dr. Rocknocker.”
What the actual fuck?
I swivel around and standing there with a shit-eating grin some representational three kilometers wide is Toivo.
“Toivo? What the actual flying fuck? What the hell are you doing in Dubai?” I asked.
“Paying the cabin crew real money to give you a hard time.” He laughs, as the red-faced cabin attendant hands both me and Toivo a drink.
Toivo is sputtering along in delighted laughter.
Dr. Dax is out like a light, snuffling his way westward.
“That still doesn’t answer my question, Toiv: what the blinkered hell are you doing in Dubai?” asked again.
“Well, you know I own an oilfield service company. Most everyone is in a global lockdown, but I can afford to fly where I want when I want. Only ‘essential’ employees are at the office. What better time to drop by some oil companies Middle Eastern HQs, make an impression, and try to drum up some business? If nothing else, they’ll remember me when the need comes for oil field servicing.” He laughs.
“Well, I can’t argue with the logic, but I might with the execution. Why not move up here into Business and we’ll catch up?” I ask.
“Nah, Rock. I’m bushwhacked. I got a nice, little row of four seats all laid out as my own, private Idaho. I’ve got in-flight entertainment, a patented ‘Dr. Rocknocker’ never-emptying glass and a desire to count high-velocity aerial sheep. Give me a few hours kip and I’ll come back and we can catch up. Deal?” he asks.
“Sure. No problem. Just don’t ask what I’m up to because it’s super-secret, really dangerous, and ridiculously ‘Eyes-only’ confidential. Have a nice nap.” I smile and turn back to my drink.
Toivo slowly rises and head back to his nest, shaking his head over what I was on about this time.
“Fuck with my beverage service? OK. I fuck with your head”, I smile quietly to myself.
“Why, yes, I’d love another. Could you make it a double?” I ask the flight attendant, who has now recovered her previous bit of Toivo-induced embarrassment She was well on her way to redeeming herself mightily in the eyes of this grizzled world traveler.
I spent the flight time writing up my field notes. I devised a brand-new form of encryption that no one would be able to break; except for me, of course. I planted primers through the coded entries to remind me how simple this code was, but how unbreakable the code would be if the people trying to decode it weren’t, well, me. There were little asides and personal accounts linked to the decryption key that would be impossible, I fervently hoped, for anyone without certain key pieces of history, to unravel.
I’m going to a primitive and paranoid place, and I’m the one sweating the encryption of my hand written notes.
Weird.
I built up a file system on my really cheap ass-looking Toshiba laptop that would prove to be impenetrable to anyone short of a batch of NSF Crays with nothing to do for the next geological epoch. It was an old, beat-up looking, field notebook computer, circa 1999.
However, looks can be deceiving.
I had it juiced with all the latest computer gizmos and gimcracks that brought its guts right up to 2020 or possibly beyond. It had 6 TB Samsung 860 PRO, 2.5" SSD, with all the attendant bells and whistles according high-juice operating systems today. It runs on Win 7 because I hate Win 10 but it also runs on Windows XP. I had my computer guru do whatever it’s called so I could run both systems simultaneously so I could show it doing XP things to a concerned TSA agent when it really was running Win 7 covertly in the background.
This thing could, in a pinch, process raw seismic data.
The logic? Well, I show customs and that crowd, and it’s an old, beat-up geologist’s field electronic notebook. In the hotel room, I can activate it’s alter ego and have access to all the goodies I need that frankly are equivalent or better than my workstation back home
Truth be told, it’s an old ploy that Rack and Ruin suggested. There are even some packages of ones and zeros that had originated from some shady place in the hills of the East Coat of the US swimming around the guts of the thing. This makes for the ideal situation to keep prying eyes where they belong and yet still allow me to have the access to all my latest geological, geophysical, and petrophysical software; as well as communication and snooping programs.
We secured permission to bring in one laptop or iPad per person on this trip; so I decided with the paucity of the internet in the place I was headed, I’d bring along my satellite lash up and the necessary computer to drive it. No one, unless they’re really tech-savvy, which I‘m not, would realize I have a fully functional satellite Internet machine in that old beat up Toshiba notebook facade and those couple of bags of adapters, wall warts, and patch cords.
That all done, I ordered another drink, pick a bit at the Full English Breakfast I thought sounded good until it arrived, and read some of the latest newspapers.
COVID-19! ALARM! RUN IN CIRCLES! SCREAM AND SHOUT!
Oh, bother.
Toivo finally arrives back from his little trip to the land of Nod and sits down in the unoccupied seat next to mine. We have some time and need every minute to catch up. I must say, thus far, it was the most agreeable part of the trip. It was good to see an old face from back home.
Toivo’s staying in London for a few days, trying to drum up some North Sea business, then he’s back to Houston via Mexico City and overland to Matamoros. The things as citizens that we’re forced to do under the guise of security.
We’re readying for landing when Dr. Dax finally wakes up. He just has time for his morning ablutions before we land in sunny ol’ England.
I had printed out the list of attendees and first thing, after we deplaned, went through all the passport and customs folderol, got to the hotel, checked in and had a couple of drinks. Then I’d requisition a conference room in the hotel for all of us to meet before our flight out to China the next day.
That’s why I get the big money. I can plan logistically like a motherfucker.
Dax and I get through all the entrance formalities and I arrange for our baggage to be sent to the hotel, which is connected to the airport Terminal 4. It was a near thing, though, as we were some of the last guests who were allowed to stay at the hotel before it closed due to the whole Bad Mexican Beer virus absurdity.
However, our rooms wouldn’t be available for a couple of hours, but they’d keep our bags for us until we decide to show up. So, with time in an airport to kill, where else do we go?
Off to the nearest bar.
It was a long walk to our hotel, and since we didn’t care to walk after being locked in an aluminum tube for the last 8+ hours, we found the first pub right after we sorted out our bags with BA. It overlooked the international arrivals area, and had a ringside seat to the comings, but not goings, of international adventurers.
So we were sitting in the Pogo Lounge of the London International Airport...in the patio section, of course, drinking Singapore Slings with mescal on the side.
Dax and I ordered several drinks as I wanted something different for a change. We sat back, got comfortable, and wanted to fire up cigars, but here in the Northern Hemisphere of late, that would probably be an executable offense.
“Y’know, Dax”, I said between sips of a really fine cocktail, “We’ll probably be seeing all our compatriots walk right on by us here. We should let them know that we’re here.”
As another aside, all the team members of this little excursion spoke English. I didn’t mention that until right now because I didn’t think it important, but I suppose it is. With the translations to the native language, to and fro, of where we’re going; additional languages would have just fuckered our timetable, which was long enough as it stood.
Dax agreed, procured some crayons, literally, and a paper placemat and ginned up a fairly credible International Union of Petroleum Geological Sciences (IUPGS) logo and our names for all to see.
So much for anonymity, inconspicuousness, and clandestineness.
Ha! With this bunch? Hardly…
Dax and I ordered another round which arrived expediently, as we pretty much had the lounge to ourselves.
It was weird hanging around a place that I’ve never before seen without bustling, hustling, thronging mobs of people. There were a few fellow travelers, but it was like after a great conflagration, a reverse decimation, where instead of only 10% of the population being laid waste, it was 90% and we were part of the lucky 10% of survivors.
“Yes, thank you. ”, I said to the smiling barkeep. I didn’t know you could double a Singapore Sling. The more you know…
Dax and I sat there enjoying our libations. Well, I was. Dax was having the damnedest of times keeping up; not that I asked him to or challenged him in any way. I was itchily lusting for a good smoke; those Dubai Camachos were taunting me just a foot or two away in my field pack.
To be continued…
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All Waves, Rise now and Become my Shield, Lightning, Strike now and Become my Blade, WEEKLY OFF TOPIC THREAD!!

Hey there all you vizards espadas, humans, quinces, no affiliate's and soul reapers Toast here with your weekly off topic thread!!
First off happy friday everyone!! Any plans for the weekend?
Anything intresting happening in your part of the world or even any kind of plans or exciting or intrewting news!?!?!?
This new job is rough (well training is) but it's better pay and honestly a better place to work then the last! But its caused me to be extremely busy and on top of that they are a little stricter with things like electronics. But I now I have a chance to move again due to the new job has a position I want that requires (and pays) for the move to a place I've wanted to go, as well as my fiance does to.
It has snowed 4 times now it's looking to be in the 60s today so itll melt some more (which we need our driveway has turned into a deathtrap of ice) so that's a plus as well :3
So what's yalls favorite pig out food or snack? I ask cause I got home last night and our roomate made wings ALOT of wings and without realizing scarfed down like 30ish xD chicken wings by myself, it's one of my weaknesses in food xD. Since were on food questions what's yalls favorite food to make?? I'm basic and loveeee making 3 cheese pesto alfredo with either shrimp & scallops, or of course chicken.
What food would you wanna try from any anime?? I'm basic and I of course would love to try the ramen from narutos ramen shop (ramen is the besttttt) What about you?
Final question for yall today is a choice one, would you rather have a zombie apocalypse or a wasteland style apocalypse (kinda like fallout) and why? Me personally zombie apocalypse. I've literally taken free classes on survival tactics ( making clean water, shelter, etc) On top of reading every zombie book I could find including survival ones and even doing a zombie survival course complete, with airsoft guns and camping for 2 nights it was awesome an experience!!
I also have a bug out bag as well made it 4 years ago and restocked it and replaced some stuff last year.
Would also like to say I'm 2 months without a cigarette!!! (I've tried quitting multiple times so heres to my last attempt) it's been hard but with the new job bieng less stressful and keeping me more busy it's a little easier to not have the "time" for a smoke. More or so proud I've gotten this far!
Have a great day guys and gals, remember, be safe out there and aim for the shiny parts :)
~~Toastii
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2019 International e-cigarette Summit Forum held in Shenzhen

On December 18th, the "2019 International e-cigarette Summit Forum" hosted by the e-cigarette industry committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce was grandly opened in Shenzhen, from China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Greece, France, Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia, Belgium, etc. More than 1,000 representatives of e-cigarette business associations and companies from 10 countries attended the event. The e-cigarette quality inspection center company signing ceremony was launched and the "World e-cigarette Public Health and Safety Declaration" was issued.
Focus on "health and safety", focus on "regulated supervision"
Liu Yufeng, the full-time vice president of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, introduced that the theme of this year's forum is "public health and safety, standardized development and supervision". This is the most important topic for the industry in 2019. It is a basic issue that must be addressed in the development of the industry. There are many differences in cultural traditions, industrial environments, etc., and countries have different methods, standards, and regulations for e-cigarette's health and safety evaluation. Therefore, exchange and explore with each other to find more scientific, rigorous, accurate and effective answers and methods. It is the common wish of everyone.
Ou Junbiao, chairman of the e-cigarette industry committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, said that although the international situation is complex and volatile, and the domestic market is difficult to expand, we must not forget to consider the original intention of human health, not to consider the interests of consumers, and believe that we are right .
On the road of e-cigarette, persistence is not easy, but the more this time, the more we must unite and warm up, which is also the purpose of today's experts and industry practitioners to gather together.
The forum was held to further standardize the e-cigarette industry, promote the vigorous development of e-cigarette import and export trade, improve the construction of the e-cigarette standard system, explore the development trend of the e-cigarette industry in the future, and guide the industry's normative development and public opinion. Get the right guidance.
In 2019, the global steam atomization e-cigarette market sales totaled US $ 33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.25%, which is 14 times since the industry development in 2012.
Ao Weinuo, Secretary-General of the e-cigarette Industry Committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce pointed out in the work report that the market size of China's e-cigarette industry in 2019 was 7.87 billion U.S. dollars, of which export sales were 6.26 billion U.S. dollars. In retail terminals around the world, most commodities Sales will be expanded four or five times. It can be said that more than 90% of e-cigarette products worldwide originate in China. In terms of production and technology, China has a clear global advantage, especially Shenzhen's more than 100 supply chains, making China a manufacturing center for the global industry.
Data from the e-cigarette industry committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce shows that as of November 2019, there were a total of 28,642 e-cigarette patents worldwide, an increase of 2,663 over last year, of which 2,506 were Chinese, accounting for 87.3%. In China, there are more than 51 high-tech enterprises in the e-cigarette country, and more than 2,000 newly registered affiliates in the industrial and commercial system throughout the year, directly creating more than 500,000 jobs, indirectly driving employment to more than 2 million, and exporting countries exceeding 132.
In the more than ten years since the birth of the e-cigarette industry, it can be seen from the independent pricing power, the agglomeration effect of the entire industry chain, and the high-density market distribution that China's e-cigarette manufacturing industry has an absolute "leading position" in the global market growth. Right "and" right to speak. "
"Preventing the use of e-cigarette by minors", "Scientific understanding of the health and safety of e-cigarette", internationally renowned cardiologist and e-cigarette expert Constantinos Falsalinos, British e-cigarette Association (UKVIA) Chairman John Duane, European e-cigarette Association (IEVA) Council Dustin Dalman, American e-cigarette Association (VTA) Executive Director Tony Abboud, Indonesian e-cigarette Association (APVI) Secretary General Eddie, French e-cigarette expert Zhou Zhenyi, German e-cigarette trade association (VDEH) president Michael, Korean e-cigarette association (KECA) chairman Zhang Xiaojin, Malaysian e-cigarette association senior member Zeng Nongye, etc. The head of the overseas e-cigarette business association talked about these two issues inadvertently in his speech.
They believe that the real problem of e-cigarette is not whether there is a hidden danger to public health and safety, but that the public has unscientific awareness and panic about e-cigarette, and public safety awareness needs to be raised. Many people ignore many countries, especially the United Kingdom. The spirit of harm reduction being advocated, e-cigarette is becoming a harm reduction product, which is the result of current scientific research. The main factor that people have disputed about it is the use of e-cigarette products by minors, which requires everyone to work together to eliminate. This is the bottom line of public health and safety, and it is also the principle that all associations and enterprises must prevent and self-regulate.
Participating industry representatives believe that they have a responsibility and mission to improve the public health and safety of e-cigarette, not only to provide users with a new generation of consumer experience, but also to use users' health and safety and happiness as the most fundamental driving force for development.
At the meeting, representatives of e-cigarette business associations from China, the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, Malaysia, Indonesia, Belgium and other countries came to power and issued the "World e-cigarette Public Health and Safety Declaration". The declaration stated that increasing product health, Safety research and development, strengthening production process monitoring, improving product quality testing, standardizing marketing behaviors, and making e-cigarette healthier and safer are the unremitting pursuits of all employees. Eliminating the use of e-cigarette by minors is a concerted action in the industry.
Participants reached consensus and formally established the World e-cigarette Alliance Preparatory Committee. Lin Hanzhong, assistant secretary-general of China Electronic Chamber of Commerce and deputy chairman of e-cigarette committee, introduced that representatives of e-cigarette business associations from 7 countries including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Malaysia, South Korea and Indonesia voted to agree to the establishment of the World e-cigarette Alliance , Spontaneously formulate international universal rules, universal quality labels, build bridges for exchanges and cooperation, and build higher-quality products based on scientific research to establish a more efficient market order.
Future alliance work will focus on matters such as regulatory policy research recommendations, industry technology trend research exchanges, e-cigarette health and safety, clinical trial data sharing, intellectual property protection, international trade circulation cooperation, and international e-cigarette exhibition cooperation.
Established "China Electronics Chamber of Commerce e-cigarette Product Quality Inspection Center"
As the earliest birthplace and largest producer of e-cigarette, China's e-cigarette is not only a new driving force and "engine" that stimulates socio-economic development, stable employment, and earning foreign exchange through exports. It is also an internationally renowned piece of electronic information manufacturing in China. business card.
In order to strengthen the control of product quality, the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce and e-cigarette member companies initiated the establishment of the “China Electronics Chamber of Commerce e-cigarette Product Quality Testing Center”, Sigray, Hengxin, Grim Yunda, Yi Jiate, Zhuo Yue, Yue Caramel, Celle, Flow, Aidroy, Xuejia and other companies participated in the signing ceremony of the testing cooperation.
At the conclusion of the conference, Wang Ning, president of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, pointed out that the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce initiated the establishment of the e-cigarette product quality inspection center. This is the formulation and implementation of the General Specifications for e-cigarette Atomizing Appliance Products since 2017, and the e-cigarette After the “cigarette e-liquid standard” group standard, another important issue concerning quality and safety standards is to strengthen the management of product quality and safety in the production and distribution fields by formulating testing rules, sampling inspections, long-term tracking, and issuing labels. Strengthening product quality inspection and certification is an urgent need at present. The entire industry should actively participate in it. Product quality is regarded as the cornerstone of enterprise development, and user health is regarded as a long-term sustainable development strategy.
Wang Ning, President of China Electronics Chamber of Commerce
Wang Ning believes that in 2019, China's e-cigarette has encountered internal and external "thumps" urging domestic restrictions on online sales and international trade barriers to enter a complex and volatile year. However, from the perspective of the growth trend throughout the year, e- Obviously, the cigarette industry's export earning capacity has been increasing year by year, and new economic growth forces that can not be underestimated around the stabilization of employment and the stability of foreign trade. Without scientific management, China's e-cigarette manufacturing and export advantages will likely decline, failing to form core competitiveness, and China may lose its "dominance" in the world's e-cigarette industry.
At the same time, Wang Ning called for enterprises to respond to support the introduction of relevant policies and measures by national functional departments, cooperate with the state's scientific industrial planning and standardized management, build standardized physical stores, form industrial clusters, and establish the protection of minors' health in Controllable area.
According to reports, the representatives of the conference also included Peng Lihui, secretary general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, Ou Junbiao, chairman of the e-cigarette committee, Yao Jide, executive vice chairman, Huang Guihua, and leading experts from the domestic health system and tobacco sector.
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A thousand words wasn't enough? Here's five thousand.

List acquired here.
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