APRIL PUTS bag holders.. so ya portfolio looking like the total opposite of what your expecting huh?
Let me guess, after quadruple witching failed, you guys all went to sleep during the weekend thinking this week our lambos and teslas will be printed by the end of this week huh? Let me guess, you also couldn't wait for this coming monday to huh? thought it was going to be blooody monday huh? Let me guess, you had one or even two circuit breakers planned for Monday huh? Let me guess, those so called 'diamond hands' you have are starting to deteriorate into 'paper hands' Let me guess, your asshole is clinching every time you look at your portfolio? Do me a favour... GROW A PAIR YOU FUCKING PUSSY. You think we came this far to fold? From getting fucked quadruply from witches left right and centre, getting fucked by the stimulus bill every week, getting fucked by retarded bulls week in and week out. You think we're here to fold? YOU THINK WE CAME THIS FAR TO SELL BEFORE APRIL? ARE YOU DUMB OR ARE YOU DUMB? do me a fucking favour, go to the closest mirror thats in your vicinity, loook in the mirror and slap yourself so hard that theres an echo in the room. Slap yourself so hard so you realize that your not drunk, its the markets. We will wait for the markets to sober up, we will wait when the president shuts down the whole country, we will wait when the unemployment numbers come out, we WILL follow suit with italy's economy and europe's economy (unfortunately), we will have more cases and panic.. this fucking list goes on. BIG RALLY = BIG FALL Remember, it doesn't matter how much money the feds offer coronavirus, the ronazz will keep on taking. We gave that bitch TRILLIONS and she still wants more? Us fucking bears realize that whatever amount of money we offer the ronazz it wont be enough. the ronazzz wants the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD, not a couple of trillions. SMARTEN UP BEARS. You weak bears are embarrassing us running around this forum crying that your puts are down. ANY SPORTS BETTORS OUT THERE? Sports betting (live odds) = options trading, IMO. Except live odds are priced in with time decay, and the greeks priced in with point spreads, better qb, better coach.. etc for sports. lets play football NFL for example: APRIL PUTS BAG HOLDERS WE ARE IN THE FUCKING SUPERBOWL RIGHT NOW NOT MAY HOLDERS OR JUNE BAG HOLDERS. WE ARE. APRIL FUCKING HOLDERS. WE ARE ONLY IN THE FIRST QUARTER. FIRST HALF. NOT EVEN IN THE SECOND HALF YET. The fucking superbowl HALF TIME SHOW(country lockdown, unemployment numbers, aggressive testing, supply chains disruptions, earning and sales) HASN'T EVEN FUCKING STARTED YET HOLD THE FUCKING LINE. TL/DR bears panicking right now, do me a ANOTHER favour, go to the fucking washroom, open up this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ikSfs9LETc and stare at the mirror and follow what hes doing in the song. BEAT YOUR FUCKING CHEST HARDER AS THE SONG PROGRESSES, HUM LOUDER, BELIEVE HARDER AND STOP BEING A FUCKING PUSSY AND .. HOLD THE FUCKING LINE. EDIT#1: positions like a true fucking retard IM ALL IN BITCH https://imgur.com/put52tZ https://imgur.com/FABUomU IT DOESNT GET MORE RETARDED THAN THIS BOYS. 2k -> 37k -> 11k. IM NOT FUCKING SELLING HOLD THE FUCKING LINE. SCARED MONEY DON'T MAKE NO MONEY. DIAMONDS FUCKING HANDS. EDIT#2 so much vaccine talks/cures. let me tell you something. I was alive when sars got introduced to the world. CV is even worse. they are both from the same family, the same strain. if we had a vaccine or a cure or something to suppress its rapid growth, we would have it by now and we would be working on a vaccine towards CV. reality is, they don't have one. everything is trial and error right now. clinical research trials takes years to produce and test. they are not going to come up with a vaccine before summer. stop being naive. look at the hard core facts with sars. there is no cure. EDIT#3 AS OF 2:22 PM (LITERALLY 3 MINS AGO) The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. has surpassed 50,000, or 12.3% of all known cases worldwide
Not a huge gambler, but I’d love to see odds posted somewhere. I’ve been without live sports for months. I wouldn’t at all mind throwing $20 on a car or two. Just seems bizarre to me that I can find lines for “Australian V8 supercars” hundred different NASCAR bets. But not even a “to win” or “to place” on IMSA? I’m aware this isn’t a gambling forum. But, who are the favorites in each class? Not who are you each rooting for. But, who would YOU bet is going to win? I go to the Rolex almost every year and I love IMSA. Little things like this always baffle me though. I can find odds on Korean women’s curling but not Porsche/Corvette/BMW/Audi? If there’s a line somewhere please let me know. Who ya got?...and who’s your dark horse?
What Should a Person Who is Trying to be Good Do in this Case then?
This is effectively a reply to something madscandi said to me in my thread The Definitive Guide to long term football betting . I’m told that if betting multiples on outright markets is as profitable as I say it is then the edge is more likely to be gone than widely accepted . I was also told that I seem to be trying to convert people because all I talk about on here is betting multiples on outright markets. So the aim of this post is to explain that I’m most certainly not trying to convert anyone . I’m more than happy for not one person on here to ever bet multiples on outright markets. And secondly to explain why the day the edge disappears I’d celebrate if I knew about it. Now I realise these are points that are unlikely to be of much interest to most people and that’s why I’ve made clear what I’m going to write about . I will try to be concise but unfortunately in order for me to be convincing I may not be concise. Let’s however try to make this very very easy. I am a very ordinary person . In fact that’s not quite true . I think of myself as a loser. In my mid thirties I had no job no degree no A levels no girlfriend no chance of ever buying a house no car not many friends a bad relationship with my parents and was sharing an overcrowded flat with other losers . That there is a complete loser. On top of that I was about to be diagnosed with a debilitating chronic illness. Then one day in February 1997 I got locked out when no one was in and being broke took shelter in the bookies and within five minutes was very surprised to learn you could bet each way on outright markets in February and that at least one team seemed to be clear value in the place part of their price. 22 years later Im a millionaire. But am I happier ? No. Why ? Apart from my illness it’s because I’m not free . I believe that 100s of millions of people are being conned into believing that betting singles on sports games and matches is the best way to beat the bookies when in fact betting multiples on outright markets is not only easier to profit from but crucially less likely to cause addiction. Now we get to the crux of the matter . What should a good person do in that situation? Or rather a person who is trying very hard to be a good person ? And I believe that it’s clear that I should tell people . Not doing so would be morally wrong and clearly selfish . Not convert people merely inform them. My two best friends dont bet this way although one of them lost his accounts anyway and ones a compulsive gambler . And neither did my father . And nor have I ever tried to convert them . Why would I ? What do I gain ? It’s enough that I told them . However one thing I’ve learned is that, curiously, gambling forums , which you’d have thought would be the most appropriate place to let people know due to things like gamblers already understanding risk, survivorship bias and money management unlike other people, are,incredibly, the worst places to tell people ! Now at this point I should point out that apparently this is because I’m doing it wrong but the thing is if you remember I’m a loser . You don’t get to be living in an overcrowded flat in your thirties with few friends and no girlfriend and no job if you’re the kind of person who knows how to deal with people . And you cannot change a losers mindset . So let’s just move on and accept that I have to tell people my way . And to keep this reasonably short it became obvious to me some time ago that only by acquiring a lot of evidence and then sending it to mathematicians will I finally be free of the need to tell people . Because it will no longer be true. And as a result of not being constantly criticised I hope and expect to be happier. So why then am I posting on Reddit about it. Well the two main reasons are I feel a bit guilty that here is a way for ordinary people to win money from gambling in a non addictive way which normally gets a very bad press and I’m effectively going to destroy it just to make myself happier. I kind of feel that I’m being selfish in not persisting with the odd post on forums . But then every time I post I still get more negativity than anything else . Which brings me to the other reason . Sheer curiosity. I’ve become utterly fascinated by gamblers . And you surely have to admit that this quite possibly a unique situation. I literally cannot give away on forums the easiest way I know to make money!! Incredible. Utterly incredible. And so I’m also going to be sending all my evidence to sociologists all over the world . And in order for sociologists to be interested I feel I should keep trying . I mean it’s not as if I have anything important to do instead . I still have no girlfriend you know and never travel. TL DR Okie dokie so the bottom line is I expect to be happier once it’s no longer true that betting multiples on outright markets is profitable.😀
Even the most successful punters in the world develop bad habits. But, the difference between them and the large majority of punters is that they are aware of what those habits are, and when these habits return, they immediately do something about them to ensure they don’t become a problem. If you have been betting for a long time then you too have probably developed some bad habits. Here are nine of the more common sports betting habits that can be a problem for punters. What they all have in common is that they can be easy traps to fall into, and they can be very costly if they are not identified and corrected. Let’s take a look at each sports betting habit in detail.
1. Betting without a goal
If you have no idea what you are trying to do as punter, then you are just wandering the desert with no direction. Your goal could be anything as small as betting on major sporting events like the Super Bowl or FA Cup or as grandiose as “to win enough money so you can quit your day job and never have to work again! Without a goal, you’re just throwing money at a sports betting site with no idea when to cash out – or more importantly, when to stop adding funds to your online wallet.
2. Believing your own hype
Punters typically have an ego. They need one to make the riskier bets and believe they are smart enough to outsmart the sportsbooks and the betting public. When your winning bets are successful, then that’s great. The problem, though, is that when you have an ego it is easy for that ego to become inflated. If you have some success and make a profit then it can be easy to believe that you can’t lose. That could mean that you take risks that you don’t have the bankroll for, or make bets on sports you know nothing about. It is crucial for punters to remember that they are only as good as their next winning bet, and that every winning streak they have just brings the next losing streak that much closer. If you lack that humility and self-awareness – or if you misplace it for a while – then you are going to be in trouble when it comes to sports betting.
3. Cutting corners
Once people have been betting for a while – and when they start to enjoy their success – they begin to try to cut some corners to make the process a bit less troublesome. And this leads to spending less time conducting research or watching games. The problem not following your trusted methods is that when you cut corners you are no longer practicing what you were doing when you were winning! Getting lazy means you will not be able to guarantee your success as with your previous bets.
4. Blaming others for your losses
You ask your betting mate who he likes. You scour Twitter for hot picks. You visit forums in search of sports betting tips and finally settle on the one you like with the best logic of winning. Then, when you lose, you blame others and not yourself! This is sinful sports betting behavior. You picked your bet, stick by it. Blaming others leads you down a dangerous road of making bets against your better judgement. Better to determine what went wrong so you don’t repeat the same sports betting mistakes in the future.
5. Failing to innovate
The world of sports betting is always changing and advancing. New betting options are always available, and new information can be easily found to help you understand and interpret games. With the amount of online information available, punters are becoming smarter, betting on sports the bookmakers know little about, or cashing out when results are not going their way. Punters who fail to innovate and take advantage of every option are going to lose ground against the bookmakers and betting profits will inevitably decrease.
6. Chasing Losses
Let's assume you lost $1,000 on a bet that you were sure was going to win. It doesn’t so you decide that the best thing you can do is get a quick $1,000 win to make up for that loss. And the following week, you have calculated that your new bet has an even better chance of winning - so you bet high to be able to recoup the losses from the previous week. As nothing is guaranteed, now you're facing possibility of going completely broke if the bet does not happen as you expected - and you lose even more money because you were chasing your losses. This might work some of the time, but it won't work every time. You're embracing a high risk strategy when you chase your losses like this. Eventually, you'll wind up going broke. A broke punter doesn't win any money, so don’t chase your losses.
7. Following the Crowd
The general public is almost always wrong. In fact, you should take any chance you get to bet against the general public. If you only get into this one habit, you could turn around the entire future of your sports betting career. This strategy is called "fading the public". The public loves a winner, and wishes to be in the winning camp with the media inflating this view. The public do not do their research like you do - so there is a better chance your bet will be correct (and no doubt with better odds) than what the public is going with.
8. Making Too Many Bets
Effective punters only bet when they have the best of it. In other words, if a bet doesn't have a positive expected value, they just walk away from it. This means that some weeks you'll place more bets than others. Think about poker. The players who fold their bad hands make more money. Passing up bad sports bets is like folding bad hands in poker. You're better off increasing the amount you wager on fewer bets that you're more confident in. Spreading your bets may sound a logical strategy but then you’ll require nearly all of them to win to obtain any profit.
9. Sticking to same teams or sports
There are punters who only bet on certain teams, leagues, or sports. Or for some, they only place bets on live betting. These punters do this because it is what they know, and what they are comfortable with. Unless you can be sure, though, that those teams or leagues offer the best possible betting opportunities for your skills (or interests) then you could be missing out. It could be that another conference or league offers much better value because there is less media attention. As we mentioned earlier, failing to innovate and experimenting with different teams and sports can be counterproductive to your betting profits. During the 2015/16 football season, punters who always bet on Premier League favorites Chelsea FC had their hopes and subsequent bets suddenly dashed as the club lost game after game. Innovative punters who bet on Leicester City FC saw an unfancied team (who were favorites for relegation) win game after game - outsmarting the bookmakers and increasing their profits.
• How old are you? What's your gender? Give us a general description of yourself. Hello! My name is Emily and I’m a 19 year old female! I just finished college (certification degree in music production, performance, writing, and business). I love animals, nature, mythology, reading, writing, music, poetry, history, cooking, my friends, and lots of other things! I’m Wiccan, vegetarian, and not so great at introducing myself. I’m having difficulty figuring out which enneagram type I am. I’ve been into the enneagram for around five years now, and have typed as many different things. I feel like I can see multiple types for myself, and honestly, I’d really appreciate an outside perspective. Thank you :) • Is there a medical diagnosis that may impact your mental stability somehow? I have 5 different anxiety disorders (OCD, PTSD, generalized aniety, panic attacks, as well as several phobias), depression, ED, and chronic pain. I’ve had them all for quite a long time (diagnosed with most of them around 6-7 years ago, some diagnosed about 2-3 years ago, but I’ve struggled with them my whole life) Overall, I’m pretty used to going about life with them. • Describe your upbringing. Did it have any kind of religious or structured influence? How did you respond to it? Both of my parents were very emotionally abusive, my father was a narcissist, and my mother has antisocial personality disorder as well as borderline personality disorder. They both hate each other, but stayed in a loveless marriage because my mother (who also has chronic pain) can’t work. They also said they wanted to raise me together (terrible idea). I have a half-sister, who was always the favorite, despite her not living with us the majority of the time. She has pretty bad anger and control issues (as do both of my parents). I was always labeled as “oversensitive” by my family, (my mother and sister are 8s, and my father is a 5). I have an okay relationship with them now, but it took us a long time to get to this point. When I was a child, I had a really severe latex allergy. My mom homeschooled me, and I didn’t really have any friends, but I was 7 going into 8th grade. I was mostly okay with being homeschooled, but eventually I got so lonely that I told my parents I needed to go to normal school. They accepted, and I got a scholarship to a very prestigious all-girls private school. They offered to advance me a few grades because of my test scores, but I refused because I wanted to be “normal” and be with people my age. I didn’t fit in at all. I had no knowledge of pop culture (I only read books and watched a few Disney movies, I had never really watched movies or TV as a child), I was weirdly tall with crazy hair and glasses, and all the other girls had a lot of money and wore fancy things, and I wore the same beat up sweatpants all the time. I couldn’t seem to make any friends regardless of how hard I tried. Additionally, I was bullied very badly there and developed an eating disorder and had a few suicide scares. I was 7 going into the school and left when I was 11. I then transferred to a Quaker middle school, where I was instantly loved and accepted. All my weird quirks were loved, and people even copied my style and interests because they thought I was cool. It was absolutely baffling to me, but I finally felt like I had a place where I was actually seen and understood. I could be open and honest with my friends about my struggles with mental health, and a lot of them were going through similar things. It was absolutely wonderful. There were still some people who weren’t super nice, but it was a very small school and for the most part, people were lovely. I also joined Quakerism, a religion built upon the idea that the light of God exists in every person, something I still practice to this day. High school was a roller coaster- my middle school didn’t continue on past eighth grade, so I transferred to the local public school. I had never been to a school with a class size bigger than 40 people before, and I was suddenly in an environment with 1500 students. I adjusted pretty quickly to it, and it was actually kind of nice to be so anonymous and unknown. I felt like I had room to breathe because nobody knew me. I fell into the wrong crowd for my first year, unfortunately. I had “friends” who would take advantage of me, make up lies about me, etc. I lost all of them my second year of high school, and had a mental breakdown from loneliness. It was the worst six months of my life. I spent all my time completely isolated, depressed, and anxious. I completely repressed all my feelings and I didn’t recognize myself anymore. Once my feelings went, my sense of identity did too. I had no idea who I was anymore, and threw myself into intellectual pursuits to distract myself. I refused to feel any of my feelings (very uncharacteristic for me, as I am a very emotional and sensitive person). Luckily, though, I made friends eventually, with people I actually liked who treated me well. I’m still friends with a lot of those people, and they definitely saved my life. After that, high school was great, for the most part. I got an IEP for my anxiety, so I could go to a music room (or an assigned quiet room) to chill in for a while. I had really amazing friends who helped me through hard times, who I could tell anything to. Life was pretty okay the second half of high school. • What do you do as a job or as a career (if you have one)? Do you like it? Why or why not? I am a musician! I’m a singesongwriteproducer. I mostly write folk/rock/blues songs. It’s my life’s passion. I almost went into criminology, actually, as I studied for 7 years to get into the FBI. I was torn for a long time between behavioral profiling and music (odd mix of things), but I realized my senior year of high school that I couldn’t do anything other than music and feel fulfilled. I wanted to go into the FBI to help people, but I have a habit of ignoring what I want because I think it’ll help other people. I don’t think I could stomach the actuality of the job, as I’m very emotional and have an abundance of mirror neurons (which means I’m overly empathetic). I can barely hear people talk about breaking their bones without feeling an ache in my leg (happening as I type this), so I realized that maybe working alongside dead bodies and traumatic crimes was not the right path for me. Sometimes, I still feel selfish for not doing it, but I realized it would be too much strain on me, and I have a habit of putting myself in situations that hurt me because I think it’ll be better for others. Ultimately, I realized that I needed to follow my true passion rather than dedicate my life the FBI. I love music, though. I started piano lessons when I was two-and-a-half, I’ve been writing music since I was four or five. Writing gives me a cathartic feeling unlike any other, honestly. The ability to play with sounds and illustrate feelings through them is the best thing in the world. • If you had to spend an entire weekend by yourself, how would you feel? Would you feel lonely or refreshed? If I had to spend the week by myself, like I was being forced to for no reason, I’d feel quite resentful and annoyed. But if it’s my choice, then it really depends on how my week went. If my week was particularly stressful, I would definitely want to spend it alone to recharge. But if my week was uneventful, I’d feel rather restless, and want to see my friends. I love alone time, but go crazy if I have too much of it. Sometimes a good compromise, I’ve found, is video chat. I can control when I have to leave, I don’t have to leave my home, and I can talk to a friend without needing to plan a specific time to do it. I usually prefer face to face interaction, but I don’t always have the time or energy. • What kinds of activities do you prefer? Do you like, and are you good at sports? Do you enjoy any other outdoor or indoor activities? I played a fair amount of sports as a kid, and was fairly decent at them, but I don’t do much physical activity now due to chronic pain and severe lung scarring. I do, however, love hiking and walking. It’s a great way to clear my head, and I love spending time outside in nature. It just makes everything better, honestly. I sometimes like hanging out with trees more than I like hanging out with people. • How curious are you? Do you have more ideas then you can execute? What are your curiosities about? What are your ideas about - is it environmental or conceptual, and can you please elaborate? I’m fairly curious. I love learning, and love taking classes in my spare time, as well as reading random textbooks, essays, and nonfiction, and watching documentaries. I love learning about everything, really, but my favorite things to learn about are people (psychology, sociology, behavior, analysis), music theory, history, english, and nature. I have a lot of ideas, so many ideas, but I don’t usually try to execute them unless I feel the desire to. I’m fairly good at discerning which ideas are realistic and which are not, which is useful. A lot of ideas are just ideas, and that’s fine with me. I do spend a lot of time daydreaming, though, and often test my ideas out in different situations while daydreaming. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about practical things, though, like what I’m going to eat for dinner or what I’m going to do tomorrow. I kind of see life through this fun fantasy lens sometimes, and I like to live like I’m in a fairytale, so a decent amount of my ideas are about stories and aesthetics. • Would you enjoy taking on a leadership position? Do you think you would be good at it? What would your leadership style be? I don’t like leading, honestly. It’s a lot of work, and I’m not very good at being assertive or commanding, and have a quiet voice, so it’s a bit of a challenge. When I do lead, though, I have difficulty establishing authority, because I’m scared people won’t like me. Typically, when I do lead, it’s because I’m knowledgable and/or passionate about a subject, or (usually) because nobody else on the team will do it and I want us to succeed. I tend to start by asking people for their ideas and finding a vision we can all strive to— then I ask people what they want to do and figure out a way for everyone to get what they want. • Are you coordinated? Why do you feel as if you are or are not? Do you enjoy working with your hands in some form? Describe your activity? I’m not very coordinated, no. I have a big problem with dissociation, which means that I never really feel present and in the moment. It kind of feels like I’m watching my life through a movie screen a lot of the time, which honestly sucks because I feel that I miss out on a lot of life. I like making art and music, gardening, walking, and all the stuff mentioned in my hobbies below, a decent amount of which is physical, but as I also mentioned, I have chronic pain, which makes it difficult to do these things sometimes. • Are you artistic? If yes, describe your art? If you are not particular artistic but can appreciate art please likewise describe what forums of art you enjoy. Please explain your answer. I am a very artistic and expressive person. As I said, I’m a musician by profession, and started piano at age 2. I taught myself a bunch of instruments as I got older, and now play 17. I also design, draw, paint, write, and love creativity in every form. As for musicians, I love artists like Stevie Nicks, Joni Mitchell, Hozier, Florence and the Machine, Ben Howard, Mitski, Lorde, Guns N Roses, The Neighborhood, Mavis Staples, B.B. King, Lana Del Rey, Gregory Alan Isakov, Bon Iver, Tame Impala, Wyvern Lingo, and Dermot Kennedy. My favorite writers are Oscar Wilde, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Emily Dickinson (I’m named after her!), Richard Siken, and Mary Oliver. Visually, I really like Van Gogh, and honestly anything with swirls, interesting colors, or catholic imagery. Also Roman and Greek art were lovely back in the day. My best friend Julia is undoubtably my favorite artist, though. I wish she had her stuff online so I could link it. She’s so incredibly talented and I love her. :) • What's your opinion about the past, present, and future? How do you deal with them? Everything just kind of is what it is. I’m most disconnected from the present. I look a lot to the past and future, but when I do, the future is always some far away version of myself which is more awake and happy, and the past is romanticized and I wish I could go back to it (even when in reality I know it wasn’t as good as I remember). I often flip between them as a form of escapism. On principle, I know I shouldn’t dwell on the past, but I often find myself reminiscing. And as I said, the version of me that I often envision in the future is a much more happy, capable, and fulfilled me, and I want to be her but feel like I’m missing the thing I need to be her, even though I have no idea what that thing is. • How do you act when others request your help to do something (anything)? If you would decide to help them, why would you do so? I probably do the thing, provided I don’t disagree with it ethically or have some reason why I physically cannot. If I can’t do that thing, I’ll provide moral support and offer advice on other people who might be able to help, or how to do it themselves. I don’t even really think about it, usually, and sometimes it doesn’t even feel like I have the option to decline. I just do that thing. If I don’t, I feel bad. • Do you need logical consistency in your life? In truth, I don’t really know what this question means. I guess I don’t need everything to make sense logically? I’m okay with not understanding everything. I’m very spiritual and part of my life is often illogical, which is completely fine with me. It does sometimes cause dissonance within myself, but I’m fairly good at sorting that out by now. • How important is efficiency and productivity to you? Not important at all, honestly. If needed, I can see ways to make things more efficient or productive, but I don’t care about doing things the fast way, or the most “bang for your buck” kind of way. I want to do things the right way, and often that means taking the time and putting a lot of care and effort into whatever I’m doing. I would much rather do a good job than a fast one. Additionally, being forced to work quickly gives me a lot of anxiety. I don’t like being rushed. • Do you control others, even if indirectly? How and why do you do that? I don’t know, honestly. I’m not naturally domineering. I usually go with whatever other people want and try not to impede upon them. Conflict makes me very anxious, sometimes to the point of shutting down and going nonverbal, so I guess through silence? In more intimate relationships, specifically romantic, my anxieties show up more (specifically PTSD). That can sometimes control me, so it can sometimes control others a bit too (for example, I can’t go out because I’m having flashbacks, and so I can’t attend an event I said I would). Also, in romantic relationships, I can be very upfront with my hardest struggles (specifically PTSD episodes), and that means the other person sees me go through some nasty stuff and is usually driven to take care of me. This happens naturally, though, as I can’t control when my PTSD episodes occur, and I can’t really stop them from happening. I need to be able to be honest about what I go though, and honestly, I’m tired of going through it alone all the time. It’s exhausting to have flashbacks that can sometimes last multiple days, to have dissociative states where I forget where and who I am, to relive my worst traumas over and over again and feel it physically happening every time, when if another person provides support, it can last a fraction of that time and usually doesn’t get to the point of dissociation. I guess I believe relationships are sharing that kind of stuff, being able to be open and bond through mutual understanding and openness. I guess it’s also part of seeing if they can handle me and them showing they care about me? My parents never believed that I had PTSD growing up, and so I dealt with it alone my whole life. I’ve had it for most of my life, and I’ve had nightmares every night since I was 14, but the first time it started to get really, really awful was when I entered my first relationship. It was being triggered by situations that naturally arise in any relationship, and I started having horrible episodes for longer, started recovering even more repressed memories, and it was just generally terrible. I had to be open with my boyfriend about it because there simply was no other way. I told him very early on, and he was very understanding. As things got more serious, he saw what was happening, and he understood and accepted that it was a part of being with me. Does that count??? Did I answer the question?? If I didn’t, sorry, I don’t really know what to say here. I don’t try to control people, and would hate to be controlling. I would never want my emotional issues to control those around me, but I really can’t help it. I try to make it as manageable as possible, but at the same time I can’t compromise honesty and openness to make things “easier”. Things are hard, and I’m open about that. • What are your hobbies? Why do you like them? I like cooking, baking, painting, drawing, designing, learning, reading (my favorite genres are poetry, nonfiction, mythology, folk lore, and classic lit), writing (poetry, essays, short stories, songs, screenplays, anything), listening to music (you can bet if I’m doing any of these other activities, I’m listening to music while doing them), playing music (I play a bunch of instruments and sing), playing flute outside (usually in graveyards, because I like to sing to the dead children, I know it’s weird but it makes me feel good), gardening, shopping, making Pinterest boards, and a lot of other things I’m probably forgetting. • What is your learning style? What kind of learning environments do you struggle with most? Why do you like/struggle with these learning styles? Do you prefer classes involving memorization, logic, creativity, or your physical senses? I’m a big auditory learner, and have a great memory (especially audiation-wise), so I learn very quickly. I like creativity and logic based stuff, mostly. I don’t learn well in crowded or loud environments, though, as it can be very overwhelming. I kind of absorb the energy of the people around me, and typically those environments have a lot of stress, so I feel very very stressed in them. • How good are you at strategizing? Do you easily break up projects into manageable tasks? Or do you have a tendency to wing projects and improvise as you go? I can be good at strategizing, but honestly, I mostly kind of wing things. I’m lucky enough that my intuition is really good at telling me what I need to do without breaking it up step by step. I like to have a general idea of what I need to do and where I need to get, but I find making lists of specifics rather draining and time consuming, and I’d rather just go into it. • What are your aspirations in life, professionally and personally? I just want to be happy, honestly. I want to make music that connects with people and is praised for its artistry and vision, and I want to feel like I’m able to express myself in a beautiful way. I want to live a beautiful life, full of people, love, and art. I believe life is mostly about relationships, and I’ve found that regardless of what else is happening, if I have people in my life who I love and who love me, I will be okay. I want friends and a significant other who really see me and love me for the person I am. I want to never have to worry if the people in my life want me there. I don’t want to have to worry about them playing games or thinking I’m horrible. I want people who really care, who won’t abandon me, who won’t judge me for anything. I want a nice cottage with a lovely garden and many pet cows, where I can play my flute in the fields and sit under the trees. I’d like to go on adventures and do stupid fun things just for the hell of doing them. I just want a beautiful, electric, full life. • What are your fears? What makes you uncomfortable? What do you hate? Why? I have so many fears, honestly. I’m scared nobody sees me. I’m scared nobody could ever love me. I’m scared nobody’s ever going to love me as much as I love them. I’m scared of conflict. I’m scared of going through another trauma. I’m scared that if I go through another trauma, I won’t be able to recover from it. I’m scared of being alone. I’m scared of life passing me by. I’m scared of people, although I think people are generally good. I’m scared of bugs. I’m scared of spaghetti, soup, and smoothies (all for irrational reasons). I’m scared of the loch ness monster (she’s just scary, okay?). I’m scared of the open ocean, of boats, of most sea animals. I’m scared I’m a terrible person, and I often feel like I’m the worst person I know. I’m scared I’m broken (a fear an abusive ex instilled in me). I’m scared of heights, and I’m claustrophobic. I’m scared that there’s something wrong with me, that I’ll never be normal or happy. I’m also scared that I’m too much, or that I’m not enough. I think about that one a lot. I don’t like using the word hate, but I hate bigots. I hate rapists. I dislike close-mindedness. I dislike judgmental people. I dislike anyone who hurts my friends. Honestly, there isn’t much I dislike or hate, though. • What do the "highs" in your life look like? Honestly, I don’t think I’ve experienced many highs. I’m very depressed, so the good times of my life aren’t super intense feeling for me. :(. It’s okay, though. Typically in a high, I’m seeing friends regularly, creating meaningful art, spending time in nature, and living freely without feeling too much guilt. Life feels like a coming of age movie, but only the cool scenes where the friends are having a blast together. • What do the "lows" in your life look like? Oof. Rough one. Extreme emotion, or feeling completely numb, sometimes within the same day. Usually, I’d be feeling completely alone and hopeless, like life could never improve. I’d also be feeling like I had no sense of self or self importance. When it’s really bad, I feel suicidal and sometimes self-harm. Luckily, I haven’t felt this way in a long time, and I’ve gotten very good at recognizing that I can feel bad for a while, that it will pass eventually, and it doesn’t mean that everything is meaningless. There are very good things in life to hold onto. :) • How attached are you to reality? Do you daydream often, or do you pay attention to what's around you? If you do daydream, are you aware of your surroundings while you do so? I daydream all the time, honestly. I have a very loose attachment to reality, and get stuck in my own head a lot. A lot of this is the dissociation, unfortunately. I have difficulty engaging in the “real world”. • Imagine you are alone in a blank, empty room. There is nothing for you to do and no one to talk to. What do you think about? It depends, honestly. If I’m not panicked (for example, I can leave the room whenever I want to, I have water with me, I’m not stuck), I’d probably be lost daydreaming. I’d maybe think up some story involving my friends and I (or a character I can project onto), or maybe about history or lyrics that really interest me. I’d probably be thinking about friends, or maybe animals. Perhaps about my feelings, and how some person or situation made me feel. Maybe dreaming of some lovely romance. I’d probably cycle through all these within the first few hours of being alone. • How long do you take to make an important decision? And do you change your mind once you've made it? I’m horribly indecisive. Often, I accidentally take too long to decide and then make a non-decision. Usually, I consult all my friends for what to do, and absorb all their opinions to form my own. Some things are a no-brainer, though, for example, I always make the decision to stay in relationships/friendships past the point of healthiness. I don’t typically change my mind, though. • How long do you take to process your emotions? How important are emotions in your life? Emotions are very important to me. They drive pretty much everything I do. I go through cycles of processing feelings, usually. I’ll feel my feelings, then I’ll take a little break so I don’t get overwhelmed, then back to feelings, etc. It can take me quite a while to fully get over big things like conflict and loss of relationships, but little things are usually processed pretty quickly, or don’t even faze me at all. • Do you ever catch yourself agreeing with others just to appease them and keep the conversation going? How often? Why? Oh absolutely. I hate disagreeing with people, with the only exception being politics (I have very strong opinions on politics and know a lot about the subject). I often find myself agreeing with others and not even questioning it, then later figuring out that my actual opinion differs from theirs. Sometimes I can’t even figure out what I think because everyone else’s opinion feels much louder than mine, Also, I can easily see different sides to things, so sometimes people think I’m agreeing with them when in actuality I’m just acknowledging that I understand their viewpoint. I think this is mostly because I’m scared people won’t like me if I’m not easy to get along with. For as long as I’ve had friends, I’ve always instinctively taken on the role of a “therapist”. I’m very good at zeroing in on what drives a person, what’s making them unhappy, and what they might want to change to feel better. I’ve also been told I’m a great listener, and I’m naturally very empathetic and caring, so it’s kind of natural that I give people emotional support and advice. I do genuinely want to help them, and I often find myself spending hours just listening to other people and analyzing them and their feelings. I am highly attuned to how people are perceiving what I’m saying, and how my language might come off. I try to make my words feel the least harsh they can be so that the people don’t get defensive and can listen with an open mind. I really enjoy these types of analysis, honestly, but sometimes it can become overwhelming. I don’t like when people rely on me too much, as it’s very draining to be a person’s only source of emotional processing. I don’t really tell them to figure their own stuff out, though, I usually just kind of withdraw a bit or end up overextending myself (often both). • Do you break rules often? Do you think authority should be challenged, or that they know better? If you do break rules, why? I don’t break rules often at all, honestly. I think most rules are there for a reason, but if I think the reasoning behind a rule is stupid or if I can’t see the reasoning at all I may break it. It’s fairly unlikely, though. I do break social rules a decent amount, though, and I’m fairly upfront with how “odd” of a person I am. I don’t care much for social rules that do not center around politeness. I try my hardest not to behave rudely or unfairly, but other than that, I think most social rules are abided by for fear of judgement, which I don’t really care if people think that I’m weird. I think authority should be challenged when they act unjustly, and when there’s a problem with how things are going, but honestly, I really dislike when people just challenge authority for the hell of it. Authority figures are usually just trying to do their jobs the best way they know how. But in instances where those in power are corrupt and are cruel and unfair, they deserve to be challenged. If you made it this far, thanks for reading! Would love to know what you think I am, as I'm quite confused myself.
People have been placing football bets for a long time, but a relatively recent wave of online betting sites has revolutionized the way people gamble with sports. Placing football bets has never been easier, and whether you're a casual gambler or a hardcore betting fan, using an online site has some great advantages. Here, we'll take a look at some of the benefits of using an online betting resource, as well as how you can increase your chances of winning by using professionally created betting systems. The number one reason people use online sites to place football bets is simply that they are so convenient. You can browse different games and leagues, place any number of bets that you want, and change the amount you bet on a given game with ease. LETOU You can join community forums to trade tips, talk about your picks, and get advice with other members of the site. There are resources and guides to placing football bets to increase your odds of winning. The convenience and fun of betting online are unmatched, but there's one important thing that you can do to make your bets more successful than ever. People that use a professionally created betting system to place football bets online have shown a dramatic increase in the amount of winnings they take. If you want to add some excitement to your ball games, placing football bets online is a great way to do so, but if you want to win some real money then you have to have a betting system. Betting systems are designed to work online because they are intended to cover a large number of games, and allow users to use specialized picking systems in order to get the best odds with the best payout. Whether you're a hardcore sports gambler or just getting into it, having a system is a great way to keep things fun and profitable without sacrificing convenience. Placing football bets online is a great way to spend an afternoon, especially if you can manage to make some cash doing it. Just about everyone that actually makes money on sports betting uses a professional system to do so, and making sure that you have someone who knows what they're doing to go to for advice is important if you want to be successful. By getting a sports betting system, you gain exclusive access to advice, picks, and odds that others don't.
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People have been placing football bets for a long time, but a relatively recent wave of online betting sites has revolutionized the way people gamble with sports. Placing football bets has never been easier, and whether you're a casual gambler or a hardcore betting fan, using an online site has some great advantages. Here, we'll take a look at some of the benefits of using an online betting resource, as well as how you can increase your chances of winning by using professionally created betting systems. The number one reason people use online sites to place football bets is simply that they are so convenient. You can browse different games and leagues, place any number of bets that you want,ฝากถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ and change the amount you bet on a given game with ease. You can join community forums to trade tips, talk about your picks, and get advice with other members of the site. There are resources and guides to placing football bets to increase your odds of winning. The convenience and fun of betting online are unmatched, but there's one important thing that you can do to make your bets more successful than ever. People that use a professionally created betting system to place football bets online have shown a dramatic increase in the amount of winnings they take. If you want to add some excitement to your ball games, placing football bets online is a great way to do so, but if you want to win some real money then you have to have a betting system. Betting systems are designed to work online because they are intended to cover a large number of games, and allow users to use specialized picking systems in order to get the best odds with the best payout. Whether you're a hardcore sports gambler or just getting into it, having a system is a great way to keep things fun and profitable without sacrificing convenience. Placing football bets online is a great way to spend an afternoon, especially if you can manage to make some cash doing it. Just about everyone that actually makes money on sports betting uses a professional system to do so, and making sure that you have someone who knows what they're doing to go to for advice is important if you want to be successful. By getting a sports betting system, you gain exclusive access to advice, picks, and odds that others don't.
Why the Rodrigo Lopes dispute might have been the most ridiculous Twin Galaxies dispute yet
Well, the Twin Galaxies clown rodeo has been at it again. Now, I know what many of you are going to say, but I'm definitely not writing this to encourage people to take Twin Galaxies seriously. This is so folks can have a good laugh, or at least get the gist of what went on without having to go to the site. Links are provided for attribution. Only follow the TG links if you doubt what I say is true. (Note: Most of what follows was from the dispute thread, and does not represent original research on my part.) Admittedly, I did have some hopes Twin Galaxies might be turning around, following the infamous Dragster dispute. It was legendary how poorly that dispute was handled, with a clear cut case for removal of Todd Rogers' Dragster time firmly established on day one. And yet, if you recall, TG head custodian Jace Hall seemed content to argue endlessly with Omnigamer, the author of the Dragster analysis, over the fact that his Dragster simulation was not a comprehensive model of the entire universe, accounting for everything from hardware malfunctions to cosmic rays to, I don't know, fucking gnome wizards. Jace sought a burden of proof even higher than the highest criminal standard of "beyond a reasonable doubt", aiming for a target somewhere along the lines of total omniscience. This open-and-shut case went on for months, uncovering several other bogus scores of Todd's, as well as his fabrication of evidence and outright lies over the years. The dispute was eventually settled, not by the scientific certitude Jace Hall called for, but rather by the testimony of former TG ref Robert Mruczek. https://i.imgur.com/LcOMFL5.png But I'd hoped TG administration were cognizant of how embarrassing that dispute was, and were committed to doing better in the future. Despite TG's many blemishes, they do have a lot of history, even if the legacy scoreboard needs a massive overhaul. And the Billy Mitchell Donkey Kong dispute, which I still say was handled impeccably, seemed to validate that hope, at least for a while. However, some subsequent disputes have gone back the way of Dragster again. This latest dispute... well, disputes... against speedrun liar Rodrigo Lopes have taken TG dispute nonsense to a whole new level. Who is Rodrigo Lopes? Rodrigo Lopes is a long-time speedrunner from Brazil with a lot of talk and very little video. His claimed records were not recognized by Speed Demos Archive (and thus are not recognized by speedrun historians today), not due to an outright ban or (before now) tangible proof of cheating, but because he refused to share the whole videos. Rodrigo did make an SDA post in 2008, claiming many significant speedrun world records, but only offering video of the last few moments of each run as proof. While not recognized in the speedrun community, Rodrigo does have a prolific history at Twin Galaxies (going by the username "Siliconian"), with 1,622 scores/times from the old referee era. Add in his 6,846 scores/times from the current "TGSAP" era (thousands of which are on various tracks on mobile games), and you have his current (as I write this) total of 8,468 scores at Twin Galaxies, giving him the most TG world records and the site's highest "Expert Skill Index" rating: https://i.imgur.com/1H6cnGn.png Rodrigo was also a founder of Brazil's "Team Metroid", whatever that means, as well as (put on your shocked faces) a Twin Galaxies referee. In 2006, Richard Ureta was recognized with a new TG world record on Legend of Zelda for NES, with a time of 32:02. Ureta's glory was short-lived, as Rodrigo quickly declared his intention to beat that time. (Rodrigo's writing can be hard to read. It should be noted that English is not his first language.) Three weeks later, Rodrigo announced he had overtaken Richard with a time of 31:36 (later re-timed to 31:37). As was standard practice at TG at the time, a physical tape was mailed to a TG referee to verify, and no copy of it was ever made public, although Rodrigo did upload the final dungeon to YouTube some time later. (Bet he regrets that now!) Earlier this summer, questions were raised about this 2006 "world record", and why it didn't appear in Summoning Salt's world record progression video on Legend of Zelda, as it was faster than both Ureta's run and the best publicly available run of that era by Tom Votava. This led to a formal dispute of Rodrigo's record at TG, in the hopes of collecting emerging evidence and discussion in one official place. Rodrigo claimed this dispute, initiated without clear evidence at the start, was proof that jealous haters were out to besmirch his good name. But of course, it didn't take long for hard evidence to emerge of cheater-ation: https://i.imgur.com/Y2LBsdu.png On the left is the enemy spawn formation of the third room of level 9, taken from LackAttack's current world record. And on the right is the same room's spawn formation from Rodrigo's run. Every known speedrun of the game that takes a direct path from the last Triforce piece to level 9 has the proper spawn formation for that room as seen on the left, except for two outliers that have the formation seen on the right: Michael "TSA" Damiani, and Rodrigo Lopes. One might be led to think the two have something in common.... other than a little mutual disdain: https://i.imgur.com/uUgJb8n.png Zelda experts chimed in on the TG dispute thread, explaining the underlying game mechanics governing these enemy spawn patterns. There are a few ways to get this irregular formation, such as leaving and re-entering level 9 or back-tracking a few overworld screens for no apparent reason, but each possibility would be inexplicable in a speedrun, resulting in a loss of time that would be strictly disqualifying for the final time Rodrigo claimed. The spawn pattern seen in Rodrigo's run simply couldn't happen following a straight route from the last Triforce to level 9. The most likely cause would have been using Up+A upon entering level 9, giving the player as many chances as they wanted for a flawless level 9 to splice together with their complete game up to that point. So we have an old TG score, with no public video, from a player who as late as 2017 claimed to have a secret better route that could get sub-30 (under TG's no-glitch rule set), but only if he gets lucky bomb drops. In other words, he claims outright mastery of the game while still not knowing that item drops in Legend of Zelda are now calculated, and have been for years. But none of that matters, because he still refuses to share the whole video of his run. Hold up. He still has the video? Oh yeah, did I mention that? He told this to TG user Starcrytas in a PM: https://i.imgur.com/nky0EXr.png Years ago, he mocked people who are afraid of showing off their record runs: https://i.imgur.com/wQbau8s.png But now, when asked about whether the video could be made available, it's always a variation of "Oh, it would be a pain to find," or "This is unfair," or "I don't take this that seriously, I just play games for fun," or "I don't have the time to do all that." Even though he does have the time to keep submitting dozens and dozens of new scores on mobile games. Wait wait wait, he's still submitting scores!? Yup! I mean, not right now, but he was submitting new scores right as this dispute against him was going on. When I started tracking on November 12th, he added 50 scores in four days, all of which went through the normal adjudication process. Basically every variation he could find on Angry Birds and Dissidia Final Fantasy Opera Omnia on Android. Gotta pad those TG ratings somehow, right? A whole new level of TG nonsense What really sets this particular circus dispute apart from the others we've seen is Twin Galaxies' normally impossible-yet-predictable evidence standards went completely out the window. At times, it felt like Jace Hall was just making shit up on the fly. On November 7, three months after the discrepancy of spawn formations had been noted, Jace Hall finally felt compelled to step in. As we discussed, Jace adheres to a dubiously high evidence standard for removal of a legacy score. Video of the crime in action? How do we know that video wasn't staged? Confession of the killer? How do we know it wasn't coerced? Rigorous scientific determination of a claimed run's impossibility? Sure, but did you factor in the human element? What if math is wrong? What if we're living in a computer simulation and none of this is real? Can you truly rule out robot warlocks from the future? This time, Jace acknowledged that the evidence was both compelling enough to warrant action but not as "definitive" as is his preference, putting himself in a "unique" situation: https://i.imgur.com/cSEKbcn.png Rather than do the reasonable thing and say "Let's remove this probably-cheater's scores until he can cough up some damn vids," Jace decided this stalemate would best be broken with a generous offer to the speedrun community: https://i.imgur.com/3S3ucse.png Yes, you read that correctly. Jace called for no fewer than five notable Zelda speedrunners to sign statements affirming their belief both in the evidence against Rodrigo and in Twin Galaxies' competence. What exactly would a signed statement of opinion prove that the evidence itself did not? Good question, bud! Either the evidence makes the case, or it doesn't, right? Omnigamer, who has no shortage of experience dealing with Jace Hall, trashed him on Reddit over this maneuver: https://i.imgur.com/M3wtocf.png Before I continue, I should point out something I've noticed here. For years, Jace Hall has expressed, let's say an "emphasis" on getting players to provide and verify their real info at Twin Galaxies. We're talking real names, phone numbers, and actual physical addresses. See for instance the last thirty seconds of this Facebook livestream from last year. Or this interview from 2014 (at the 2:15:13 mark). Jace says that TG doesn't sell peoples' info, and that this point of emphasis is because Guinness prefers to deal with real names. Okaaay... But what's odd to me is, he brings up this desire for your info even in contexts that have nothing whatsoever to do with submitting that info to Guinness, such as "We need you to give us your personal info before we can accept your testimony on this score dispute." At any rate, nobody signed Jace's exact statement, but a few Zelda speedrunners did show up and offer their expertise in the dispute thread, including Fcoughlin and cantaloupeme (who was expressly curious why Twin Galaxies needed his address). "Four Swords" runner Tompa contributed as well. A couple of people even ran "TG Rule Set" as a new category on SRC, both getting a better time than Rodrigo (obviously with the correct level 9 spawn patterns). Half-measures That silly offer to the speedrun community got even sillier just hours later, when Jace decided to amend his terms. Rather than offer a resolution where all of Rodrigo's scores would be wiped from the leaderboards (as one would tend to do with cheaters), Jace backpedaled and said, due to insufficient evidence, only Rodrigo's pre-TGSAP scores would be removed, and maybe the ban wouldn't be lifetime after all: https://i.imgur.com/tJ30WAA.png "TGSAP", for those who don't know, stands for "Twin Galaxies Submission and Adjudication Process", the new community-based system for score/time verification which supplanted the old private referee system. Under TGSAP, full video is required, to the extent that even previously verified scores/times can be removed simply on the basis that the video has since disappeared from public view. (Again, that's talking about scores/times submitted under TGSAP. Legacy scores are treated differently.) Honestly, it's a commendable standard for modern adjudication, but anyone who has looked into cheating in gaming/speedrunning knows that even full, permanent video hasn't stopped people from producing convincing cheats (not even under TGSAP specifically). TGSAP doesn't require handcams, nor does it sufficiently account for things like macro use or ROM modification. TGSAP is good, but it's not perfect. The idea that someone would be found to have cheated enough to warrant removal of mail-in scores, but not enough to warrant removal of online video scores, is baffling, not to mention arbitrary. Jace Hall didn't seem to balk at the prospect of stripping Billy Mitchell's scores in the face of the MAME evidence, and many other disputes are dispatched quietly and efficiently. But a special few of them drag on for months, with the phoniest of rebuttals being offered at times. As I said before, I would have liked to believe things had changed at TG, that things were moving in the right direction such that these decisions were being weighed with respect to the evidence and not TG admin's reluctance to remove a particular player's scores. But these maybe/maybe not half-measures make me wonder. Was TG's reluctance to strike all of Rodrigo's scores due to Rodrigo's extensive and continued participation on the site? Was it due to his high placement on their site-wide rankings? Was TG afraid of the embarrassment that would ensue if their top player was found to be a cheater? Or hell, is this nonsense all just another way of stirring up bullshit drama? The bogeyman In attempting to defend his overabundance of caution (if you could even call it that), Jace Hall then delved into several references to potential legal action against TG which could result from score/time removals such as this: https://i.imgur.com/Zw07f1N.png https://i.imgur.com/1tdXPjw.png First of all, as far as we know, nobody has actually sued the current Twin Galaxies over a score/time removal. Billy Mitchell has famously threatened to sue over his scores getting wiped, but he hasn't actually followed through, and is unlikely to ever do so as his case is dead-on-arrival. Yes, in the U.S. you can technically sue anyone for anything (though I don't know how it works in Rodrigo's home country of Brazil), but no actual case can be made against a scoreboard simply de-listing a player's scores without comment. Twin Galaxies did literally that two years ago against notorious scumbag (and former TG ref) Ron Corcoran. At best, this is a potentially operation-crippling level of over-caution, or at worst, this is Jace Hall using the specter of legal threat to justify a position which in actuality has more to do with some other unstated motivation. But here's where it gets really ugly to me. Remember Jace's offer for five speedrunners to slap their real names down on the table and testify that they think Rodrigo's run is baloney? If he really truly does think this is a case with actual legal liability, what on Earth are we supposed to make of that "offer"? "Here, people who have nothing to do with this website, you put your names on this instead." He literally says their statements need to be strong enough to "move the needle toward resolution", with the stated concern being that TG could get sued. Is he trying to base Twin Galaxies' decision directly on other peoples' testimony such that TG can say "You can't sue us, we're just going by what was reported, you'll have to sue those other people instead for telling us you cheated"? But honestly, I don't even think that's what's going on here. Jace talks about all of this so openly and freely. What does every lawyer tell you to do when faced with legal threats? "Keep your yap shut!!" No way did Jace consult with a lawyer on any of this, or at least if he did, no way is he actually taking that lawyer's advice. He's just a cowboy, shooting from the hip. He tells us what he wants, but he can't seem to be up front about why some disputes are so easy to settle while others can't be resolved even in the face of definitive proof. The Human Element Speaking of the Dragster dispute, what contentious, drawn-out Twin Galaxies dispute wouldn't be complete without a suite of ancillary disputes, as investigators begin to notice that the main disputed record isn't the only fishy item on that player's score page? Rodrigo's time on Legend of Zelda: Four Swords Adventures on GameCube has been questioned as potentially impossible. (Again, only the last few minutes are made public by Rodrigo.) There are also some alleged discrepancies with his time on Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past on SNES. But the real juicy stuff goes all the way back to our old friend, our old pal, the Atari 2600. No, we're not racing any dragsters or storming any barns or wascaling any wabbits this time. But we do have a Tasmanian Devil sighting! Recall that Todd Rogers in 2004 claimed an impossible (for multiple reasons) score on the Atari game Taz, complete with a photo of his television showing the impossible score. Todd's defense at the time was that he was actually playing on a secret 1984 version of Taz which scores differently, a version which nobody to this day has ever found. (I will say that Rodrigo has not yet to my knowledge resorted to the "prototype defense".) That score was the subject of its own dispute parallel to the Dragster dispute two years ago. Unlike Todd's claim, Rodrigo's score on Taz is actually possible in the sense that the game will technically allow it, but it's still not possible in the sense that no human can consistently play on the insane speeds the game runs at past about 300,000 or so points. Check out the console and emulator leaderboards for that game: https://i.imgur.com/4VMsP5A.png Rodrigo managed the same super-human feat on Asterix, which is basically the same game: https://i.imgur.com/ugzy0hE.png Not quite as stark a contrast is Rodrigo's Asteroids score, again on Atari 2600. The top console score is 79,660 points, while on the emulator leaderboard Rodrigo is rockin' 111,390: https://i.imgur.com/Q7jILnh.png https://i.imgur.com/uUFk6ZJ.png In fact, each of these sketchy Atari scores of his are on emulator, rather than actual console. It turns out, it's a simple matter to slow down an Atari emulator during game play and then play it back at full speed, creating the illusion of real-time play one might pass off on a trusting referee. Another sketchy emulator score by Rodrigo is on "Alligator People". But this time, the score actually is just impossible, ending in a 3 when scores can only end in a 5 or a 0. https://i.imgur.com/zs9y619.png Hey, maybe we can just round the score down and call it good. Talk, talk, talk But enough of actual scores and evidence. Let's get to the most indelible element of any lengthy Twin Galaxies dispute: Name-calling and petty bickering! The question of how exactly Rodrigo's scores were verified was a topic of discussion. Rodrigo had 14 scores with "referee" listed as verification method (meaning, the score was verified live in-person), and with Rodrigo firmly in Brazil, there doesn't seem to be any way that could have happened unless he and his buddies in "Team Metroid" were verifying for each other. But insofar as Rodrigo did submit tapes to a TG ref who wasn't his teammate, he had a specific preference to submit those tapes exclusivelyto TG referee Robert Mruczek. (It also appears that his competitor Richard Ureta "Sleepz" was subjected to no less than triple-verification while Rodrigo skated through.) I'm not going to get into the question of whether Mruczek was in on the scam, as opposed to merely being identified by the cheaters as a ref who trusts them. But just because I'm not going there doesn't mean others didn't. You can see much of this squabbling for yourself on the open thread, but I wanted to show off a couple "deleted scenes", if you will, captured as part of my screencapping. First we have "RTM" (Robert Mruczek) popping off at [REMOVED BY ADMIN]. Who, might you ask, is [REMOVED BY ADMIN]? Thankfully, TG admin's redaction isn't very thorough, as the original version of RTM's quote was still up in a reply from Marcade, just a bit lower on that same page. That reply, as you see, later got the axe altogether: https://imgur.com/a/dCLvnCa I mean, sure, it was petty and off-topic, but have you seen these TG dispute threads? Marcade made another reference to Mruczek, which again got edited out. But this time, Jace addressed it specifically: https://imgur.com/a/G5oyriI Back again with the "But somebody could sue" bit? Like, seriously, how was that any more slanderous and worthy of censorship than half of what goes on in those threads? Why were Marcade's comments about Mruczek so much worse than his remarks about Rodrigo in the same comment? Out of all the nonsense on that site, why was this the item Jace could not allow to stand? Speaking of Jace, he ruffled some feathers when on page 21 he characterized witness testimony as mere "lips flapping"... https://i.imgur.com/bqhhBtt.png ...but wasn't Jace the one asking for that "lips flapping" testimony moments ago? Wasn't he directly saying such testimony was all he would need to wrap the dispute up? Also recall yet again the infamous Dragster dispute, which dragged on for months in spite of verified and re-verified scientific evidence, only to come to an abrupt end (a month ahead of schedule) on the basis of - oh, that's right - "lips flapping". It was around this same time that Jace, over on his site blog, acknowledged "concerns" over Twin Galaxies' legacy scoreboard, while casually floating out a shocking proposal: https://i.imgur.com/WE7SCUS.png Jace would later say in the comments that the proposal was scrapped due to negative feedback. Meanwhile, back at the Rodrigo dispute, the official Twin Galaxies account offered the most - and I don't use the term lightly - cringe-inducing rebuttal to the ol' speedrunners' mantra: https://i.imgur.com/TlKevl4.png Later, in the same comment, TG again invoked the dread threat of legal action: https://i.imgur.com/qVv3tP3.png Lastly, TG offered a weak explanation of why they would remove only some of Rodrigo's scores: https://i.imgur.com/VqCG0iH.png Again, this dispute calls all of Rodrigo's pre-TGSAP scores into question, but somehow his TGSAP scores are safe. I guess the TG mantra would be "Vid, did". The rants Getting back to the man of the hour, if you love dumb rants from cheaters continuing to profess their innocence in the face of obvious guilt, then Rodrigo Lopes is your guy! I linked the "Oh, I don't have time to find the tape, I just play games for fun" rant above. Around November 12, Rodrigo sent another one, this time directly to Jace Hall, who reposted it to the public evidence thread: https://i.imgur.com/WPL4nM9.jpg Let's see... "I've given a lot of time and work to this site," "These people are haters looking for evidence to destroy me," "They broke the rules when they opened this dispute," "It's unfair that there's so many of them all against me." Not a lot pertaining to the actual evidence, but you know how that goes. Oh, and an interesting little plea bargain at the end. "How about you just ban me for one year, and let me keep my scores?" Surely, the words of an innocent man! It should be noted that his claim that he has proven his critics wrong only for them to resume at a later date doesn't seem to be valid. Multiple participants in the dispute looked for any instance of him proving the legitimacy of any contested run of his, ever, and nothing of the sort could be found. Jace at this time responded to Rodrigo and reiterated his stance that, if this dispute were approved, it would result in the removal of Rodrigo's non-TGSAP scores and a ban of to-be-determined length. Oh, but this wasn't the last of Rodrigo's juicy rants. He had up to this point avoided participating in all the disputes against his runs (except for one 2017 dispute which called for a mere time adjustment). But dude had had enough! This injustice would stand no further! On page 25, he decided to finally make an appearance, and lay some truth down on the non-believers: https://i.imgur.com/NqvJ8Dp.png Oh my gosh, for real? How long is this gonna go? https://i.imgur.com/ekT1HYv.png You'll have to go there yourself if you want to bask in its true awe, but here's the gist: "I've been with Twin Galaxies a long time, but nobody cares what I've done! Nobody thanked me for all the work I did! Good players are leaving, and you don't care! Us players who have stayed since the beginning are treated like garbage! Newbies are treated with more respect than me! If you so much as submit an incorrect digit, you'll get banned forever for cheating! These haters attack me wherever I go! Look at these other disputes about which I have nothing meaningful to say! Someone can start a dispute, and there's no penalty if they're wrong, but I can lose all my records, so how is that fair!? Why do these newbies have more influence than us senior members!? Twin Galaxies doesn't care if I'm banned or not! I spent my time helping Twin Galaxies, but these newbies are spending all their time investigating me! If I lose, I'll lose 8,300 records, this is unfair! This will never end! Even if I upload Zelda and prove them wrong, they'll just dispute me again without proof! Angela starts a dispute without evidence, and there's no penalty, but if I refuse to submit the video, I get banned! You cannot say this is fair! I don't need to defend myself against an invalid dispute! Twin Galaxies is corrupt against itself! Go ahead and remove all my records from before 2013, I'll reclaim them again! I'll agree to a one-year ban, but you don't need to ban me permanently! Thank you to all my real friends!" At that point, Rodrigo finally relented and addressed the actual evidence against him by publishing his complete Zelda tape, proving his innocence and putting the matter to rest forever.... Just kidding. No, what really happened was Jace Hall at last closed the actual dispute thread with an official statement effectively saying "Enough is enough", announcing that Rodrigo's scores would be removed immediately. Haha, nope, that didn't happen either. This circus train wasn't going to stop that easily. Makin' up the rules You probably thought Jace was done with his wacky dispute deals. But YOU THOUGHT WRONG. Rodrigo complained over and over that the dispute process was unfairly biased against him. This seems weird to me, given that people disputing TG scores are expected to spend hours of their free time and bend over backwards to dissect what little public evidence is available while the person claiming the score can sit back and do actual nothing even when compelling evidence against their claim emerges. But regardless, Rodrigo's complaints were heard by the Twin Galaxies ringmaster himself, who whipped up the following offer to dispute participants: https://i.imgur.com/7vJfVWG.png What? The? Hell? Is going on here!? I don't want to bash the people who signed up for that, as they can do what they want. But you'll notice that, despite my having posted to the dispute thread advocating that all of Rodrigo's scores should be removed, my name isn't anywhere near that nonsense. And it's not because dude isn't obviously guilty, and it's not because I have any TG submissions whatsoever to care about. It's because this is fucking insaaane. First off, it's one thing for Rodrigo to be annoyed at someone disputing his score/time with no evidence, but it's a whole 'nother matter when significant evidence exists that the run is cheated. Imagine if someone who certainly appeared to be guilty of a crime - let's say, bribery - complained that it's not fair he has to defend himself in court and may go to jail, while the people credibly accusing him aren't at risk of anything themselves. Now, imagine the judge says, "You know what? You're right! Let's make it more fair. The people who think he's guilty, please raise your hands. Here's the deal. If this guy is found guilty, he'll go to jail for bribery, but if he's found not guilty, you'll all go to jail instead!" Like, why is this bogus complaint being entertained by TG admin at all? Like, at all? There's also the little matter that Twin Galaxies dispute verdicts haven't always been exactly reliable. Like, I'm really supposed to risk anything, literally anything whatsoever, on the notion that TG administration will look at concrete evidence of someone cheating and conclude "Yup, case is clear, dude definitely cheated." I wouldn't risk my garbage on that, no matter how certain I was that the person actually cheated. I will also point out that 1) like the rest of this ridiculousness, this clearly didn't go through any lawyer, and 2) given that it wasn't vetted in any way, it wouldn't really stop Rodrigo from uploading his original spliced submission and claiming that it "clearly and definitively proves without question" that his run is "valid". We all know what these words are supposed to mean in real talk, but in a pseudo-legal context they can be argued many different ways. It's like making a bet with someone you don't trust that one of you will get the "record" on a given game without ever specifying what track, what rules, who's going to verify it, or what the timetable is. Oh, and once again, we see Jace Hall just making shit up as he goes. Contrary to his claim that this sort of offer will be in effect for "one specific dispute case only", the precedent is now set. Isaiah "Triforce" Johnson, during his Contra 3 dispute last year, claimed to have a tape showing a playthrough of his which he would only publish in the event Twin Galaxies removed his score. Does he now get right of reprisal against his disputers? Does every accused gamer get that right? Should there really be a penalty for raising a question about a run's legitimacy? I get that score disputes can definitely be used as harassment, and I do agree that matters concerning the investigation of potential cheating should be handled with some delicacy (which seems to be lacking from the TG dispute method in general), but at the end of the day, such matters must be discussed if the sport is to stay clean. While this offer of Jace's certainly added to the theatrics of the Twin Galaxies clown rodeo, I'm not sure it improves his scoreboard's legitimacy. It also tacitly gives away the notion that Jace is already quite confident in the guilt of the accused. He knows he isn't actually going to have to enforce this nonsense, which would mean scrubbing out several of TG's top competitors and contributors from his site, all for life. Like, why not just act on that confidence and remove the score? Is it that the theatrics are more important? Soon after this new offer from Jace, with people now risking lifetime bans and score removals over this dispute, the question was asked whether this meant Rodrigo would now face a full score removal and lifetime ban rather than the partial measure referenced multiple times earlier: https://i.imgur.com/QKnAeEG.png No direct answer was given. Technical difficulties For a short while, there was some consternation that wiping Rodrigo Lopes and all his scores could actually break the Twin Galaxies website: https://i.imgur.com/Ykuwtrp.png Basically, the site grants users all these points and ratings and bullshit based on their participation in submission and adjudication under TGSAP, and a lot of that would get torn to shreds the moment Rodrigo and his submissions are plucked from the system. Unlike Todd, Billy, and some others, whose scores (bogus and otherwise) were limited to the old referee days, Rodrigo has been even more active under TGSAP than he was before, even though it was his older records which finally came under scrutiny. This was the first time that a wide removal of scores under the TGSAP system was being considered. Jace said of the possibility of a one-time workaround: https://i.imgur.com/InZwWZT.png He did eventually come back and say the site's engineers figured out a way to keep everyone's credibility rating and submission points, but really, who cares? Check this out, though! Rodrigo returned! On page 35: https://i.imgur.com/p5q6c4v.png Holy smokes! Tapes! Lots of them!! And he's recording them... like, externally, with a cell phone, I guess? But hey, that's something! Are we actually gonna get some progress? Are we gonna see this Legend of Zelda one-time world record that Rodrigo's been oh-so happy to brag about all these years? https://i.imgur.com/bLS1ZHk.png Hahahaha, Nope!! We got two short clips of his digital capture being recorded off his computer screen. One is just 20 seconds of him getting the first sword, and the other is a shorter version of the level 9 video we've already seen. Here, check 'em out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO4-qsMylHQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imFaesFrMRo "Ohhhhhh gosh, it would be sooooooooooo much trouble to drag this already digitized file over into YouTube. I'm afraid the best I can do is record a couple minutes of it externally and then post that instead." Of course, his three posts on page 35 came with more ranting about how the disputes are invalid, and how people are only disputing these records because they belong to him. He says that Jace probably doesn't want to lose him or other members of the site, remarking in all-caps "WE DONT NEED TO FIGHT AGAINST OURSELVES." (No dude, we don't, because you're a cheater.) Also another attempt at plea-bargaining down to temporary ban with only old scores removed. Also another shout out to his real friends. Literally not one person bought any of this shit, of course. There were many more requests that Rodrigo upload the Zelda run, or even perhaps, just the segment from the last Triforce piece to the first stairway of level 9, since theoretically that would provide enough data on enemy spawn formations and item drops to determine any splices. However, Mrturk did point out on page 37 that a lot of information on what people would be looking for had been collected in the dispute thread, and that Rodrigo did now have the opportunity to at least try to modify the evidence to erase certain tells. Thus, at this point, with so many people agreeing to risk lifetime bans themselves, Twin Galaxies should accept only the entire original video (not that they were going to get it, anyway). Wrapping it up Oh my goodness, are we there yet? Not long after Rodrigo's taunt that he totally had the video right there and still wouldn't be sharing it with anyone, things actually started functioning reasonably, starting with this announcement from Jace: https://i.imgur.com/kzPkBEh.png Well, some things functioned reasonably. As I was starting to write all this, I was occasionally refreshing Rodrigo's profile page, and on Tuesday I saw this message: https://i.imgur.com/t8DEVPu.png I thought, this must be it! Dude is done for! But no, not only can TG not run a score dispute, they can't run a damn website either. The player profile link I had been following, the one that still comes up right now when you Google "Twin Galaxies Siliconian" - https://www.twingalaxies.com/siliconian - stopped working. They changed site URLs that day, and a bunch of existing links are all broken, now. The new URL for Rodrigo's profile - https://www.twingalaxies.com/member.php/36224-Siliconian - was still business as usual. ...at least for a few hours. Then Rodrigo's profile actually did change: https://i.imgur.com/NuUyulc.png No official word, though. Does "BANNED" mean temporary, or permanent? All 8,468 of his scores were still there. It seems like, if you were TG admin, and if you were the sole party able to choose when this stuff would be implemented, you could... you know... have your closing statement ready to go for when you flip the switch. This dispute couldn't even end properly. Almost five hours later, we finally got the word: https://i.imgur.com/FRZzVow.png Okay, not a good start... https://i.imgur.com/VONhBc1.png Better... Basically, TG admin cited the fact that a lot of people put a lot of time and energy into investigating this dispute, while Rodrigo voluntarily told everyone he has the tape and refuses to share it. Apparently it matters that Rodrigo told everyone about the tape voluntarily, rather than the existence of the tape being deduced or discovered? TG admin also didn't care for the fact that Rodrigo suggested he would wait for a ban and then publish this totally-exonerating evidence after the fact, basically saying this conduct was unbecoming of a former TG ref who called on others to substantiate their claims many times: https://i.imgur.com/FriDuAP.png Haha, somebody wasn't happy! As for the result: https://i.imgur.com/Fwxgywc.png No explicit reason was given for why the punishment was bumped back up, although obviously it was the correct move. And the next day, the deed was done. TG admin then closed the official dispute thread, while opening a separate "Post-verdict" thread so people could continue bickering about irrelevant bullshit. So what did we learn? I think, deep down, in our heart of hearts, we know the answer: Nothing we didn't already know. TL;DR: https://i.imgur.com/ZaCT9cC.png
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